Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

With SO many WR options out there, I think it's hard to leave a start up with an advantage by investing most of your resources in the position - you miss out on the depth the position offers in relation to other positions, mostly RB.

Both positions offer depth. Both positions offer value picks later on. I went WR, WR, TE, WR, WR, WR in a startup and am in the finals due to my crazy advantage at WR (start 3). It wasn't hard; it was just picking BPA.

Pick the right players and it doesn't matter. The cream will rise to the top eventually, and will do it with what works for them.

But the depth between RB and WR is not comparable right now, however, so I disagree with that point.

ETA: And who is the TE you landed in the 3rd? Slipping Gronk? Hernandez pre-news?

 

[thriftyrocker]

But the depth between RB and WR is not comparable right now, however, so I disagree with that point.

I think maybe it is semantics. There are more WR that contribute on a week to week basis. However it may be easier to find RBx in round y than a WRx. The reason "depth" at RB is just as good as WR is because there is an incredibly high number of players who are capable of being RB2s. There are just as many value plays at RB late in the draft (Moreno, Pierre, Woodhead, Fred) and new depth is always getting pulled from the bone like pink slime (Rainey, Todman). If you sort RB by PPG you're going to lament the depth at RB but I don't think that's useful information.

 

[Concept Coop]

But the depth between RB and WR is not comparable right now, however, so I disagree with that point.

I think maybe it is semantics. There are more WR that contribute on a week to week basis. However it may be easier to find RBx in round y than a WRx. The reason "depth" at RB is just as good as WR is because there is an incredibly high number of players who are capable of being RB2s. There are just as many value plays at RB late in the draft (Moreno, Pierre, Woodhead, Fred) and new depth is always getting pulled from the bone like pink slime (Rainey, Todman). If you sort RB by PPG you're going to lament the depth at RB but I don't think that's useful information.

Moreno, Pierre, Woodhead, and Fred were question marks that paid off. Just as many went the other way; Ingram, Stewart, B.Brown, Ball, etc.

The reason Rainey, Todman, Asiata, and James matter is because the ***ntional baseline at RB is very low. Most teams don't have a startable 3rd RB, but everyone has a startable 6th WR, and if they don't, it's on the wire.

And they're not new depth. They're re-shuffled depth. They matter becuase the starters ahead of them went down. They're week-to-week bandaids, if you're lucky enough to own and need them during the 2-3 week span in which they provide value.

Meanwhile, Brian Hartline is on his way to a 80/1,000 season and he doesn't matter. He's free. That kind of stable production would be very valuable at the RB spot.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Meanwhile, Brian Harline is on his way to a 80/1,000 season and he doesn't matter. He's free. That kind of stable production would be very valuable at the RB spot.

Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas is on his way to a 80/1000 season and he doesn't matter. He's free.

 

[Concept Coop]

Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas is on his way to a 80/1000 season and he doesn't matter. He's free.

Thomas' season was 13x more valuable than Hartline's, to this point. He's the 13th highest scoring RB in PPR formats, and I highly dispute the notion that he doesn't matter.

80/1000/4 matters for a RB. 80/1000/4 is baseline for a WR. To take it a step further, 80/1000 from a RB is 13x more valuable than 80/1000/4 from a WR, assuming 2013's baselines hold up year to year.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It occurs to me that Gronk's latest injury just upped the value of Jimmy Graham even more. Hard to find a position with such a disparity between the top two players and the rest of the field.

I'm likely to the point where I'd take Graham over Gronk, after preferring Gronk at every previous stage. But I don't think the gap is big. If Gronk had hurt his back, or had more forearm issues, I'd be more worried. Freak injuries happen and that hit would have done the same to anyone. Gronk is still only 24 YO and a HOF talent. I don't think this is a Nicks/DMC/M.Austin situation. Give me unrelated freak injuries (forearm/knee) over the recurring, related, potentially chronic type.

If Gronk is falling to the 3rd in most leagues, I'll be grabbing him the 2nd of every start-up I do this off-season.

Agreed on all counts. Gronk's latest injury causes me to adjust my expected number of games downward by 3 (for the games he'll miss this year), plus some as-of-yet undetermined number to represent his risk for next year (call it 6). So, I'd expect Gronk to play 9 fewer games for his remaining career. I've not lowered my estimates of his performance in all of his remaining games after he returns. Those ~9 expected missed games cause his value to drop, perhaps to the point where I consider Gronk vs. Graham to be a tossup, but they otherwise don't represent all that much of a change for me.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Speaking of start-ups, here are my early, initial thoughts on value at each position.

QB - I see very little value at the top. I like RG3 if he goes any later than he did this past off-season. Foles is a wildcard, but I expect there will be one guy in every league that likes him more than I do. Kaepernick still has elite upside, and I'd be willing to gamble again, if the value is right. At the end of the QB1 range, I like Brady and Romo still. Ideally, I'd land a combination of Rivers/Teddy or Manziel very late. I'm in no hurry to address the position, and would be happy to let the rest of my league have their pick before I do.

RB - McCoy or bust in the top 5-7. Charles, Martin, and Gio in the late 1st. Spiller and Lacy in the 2nd. After this group, I'll likely target my favorite rookie options, and hope to land a couple in the 4th-5th round range. Morris and Stacy could provide value if they drop, due to lack of name value. The key to the position, during a start-up, is to maximize your roster space to accommodate a good number of breakout candidates, at every level. Ideally, I'd land a top 5-6 guy in the first two rounds, multiple RB2 candidates in the 4-5 range, and youth/upside the rest of the way. I'm passing on stopgap options and will instead target them via trade if needed. It could be hard to pass on guys like Rice, Foster, and CJ if they slip far enough, but I'm hoping there will be value elsewhere.

WR - WR is tricky. The trend is VERY clear and impossible to ignore: The game is providing more and more fantasy relevant options. More teams than ever have 2+ top players, and I expect that to continue. That would suggest that we take advantage of the depth and wait. There are 3 guys I'd take in the first round: Dez, Calvin, Green. Julio and Thomas are right there and very much worth a first round pick, I'm more likely to trade back than call in their names.

After the top 5, I'll likely be passing on the 2nd tier. Gordon is a star but someone will take that gamble before me. Cobb is safe, Harvin risky - but I'll likely pass on both. Jeffery is a stud, but drafting him in the top 15 feels like chasing. After these names, there is a very high number of options that I value close to equally - so I'll target the end of this list. I expect that to be Cruz again this year, but I should be able to land him a round later than last year.

There will be a lot of WR value on the board in rounds 4-8. In my opinion, the key to the position is taking advantage of the depth. It's will be important to make sure that the guy you pick in round X is worth the value gap between round X and X+1, X+2, etc. I really like Randle, T.Williams. T.Austin, and J. Hunter where I expect them to land. Marshall and Fitz could be targets if my league mates are scared off by their age.

TE - Graham is not a reach at any point in the draft and should be considered in the top 5. Gronk is next and I will be happy to land him in the mid/late 2nd. Reed/Thomas/Cameron will come off the board fairly early, and could be solid value depending on where they land. If I miss out on Gronk/Graham, I am only targeting the bottom of the next tier, and only if value dictates. I'd just fine loading up on RB options in the 4-5, and addressing TE later.

After the top 5, I'll be playing a waiting game. There are a lot potential break out candidates, and many will come cheap. The key is being in the best position to roster the next Reed/Thomas/Cameron. I plan on doing that by grabbing the fallers, rather than paying a premium for the sexy options. ASJ is a guy I predict to land on a lot of my rosters, assuming he lands where I expect him to; well after Ebron and Amaro.

2015 Draft Picks - I'll be looking to add draft picks during the start-up, offering my league mates the option to move up during the draft. The class is loaded at RB, and, as a rule, draft picks are pretty cheap during start-ups, as teams expect to be in the hunt.

Overall - Take advantage of the depth at QB and WR, load up on RB potential, and pick your spots at TE. My sweet spot in the first round is mid-to-late. The potential roster isn't likely to be a favorite going into 2014, but as the value bets pay off, the flexibility should be huge and allow moves if needed.

Example:

McCoy

Lacy

Cruz

Rookie RB/Bell/Stacy/Vereen

Fitz/Randle/Crabtree

Tavon/Rookie WR

T.Williams

Very RB heavy without having to reach. Quality WR group at a discount, with both upside and proven production. Should still be able to land some combination (of 2) of Romo/Brady/Rivers and Bridgewater/Manziel/Manuel at QB. Plenty of options at TE, and it'll be easy enough to pair upside and immediate production. If roster size allows it, I'd hope to land 3 players at TE, at least two being young with tier 2 (Reed/Thomas/Cameron) potential - we'll call it Pitta/ASJ/Kelce.

The value on the roster is very appealing in future trade talks, having loaded up at RB/WR. The downside to waiting on TE and QB is the roster spots that gambles take up. It'll be important to the strategy to stick to boundaries, and gamble on your options getting it done. Rivers/Manziel looks risky, but less so considering how cheap in-season replacements are likely to be. Pitta/ASJ - same thing. Witten/Olsen/Daniels will come cheap during the season, once teams realize they're out of the hunt.

Pardon my rambling, but I'd be interested in hearing what others think about start-up strategy going into next season.

I agree with a lot of your thoughts within the positions, but disagree with your thoughts between positions. In my mind, my goal is to stockpile of talent. If there's a huge glut of talent at the WR position, my reaction isn't to say "it's deep and I can get some later", passing on the position... my reaction is to draft a boatload of those top WRs. There is no universe where I'd be taking Gio Bernard over the WRs available in the late 1st, or Lacy over the WRs available in the 2nd round. I like Gio and Lacy, I have both as top-5 RBs, iirc... but I think the WRs available at the same point will simply be more talented players.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Caveat: I only play in deep PPR dynasty leagues (usually 2QB leagues), so this advice might not be relevant for shallower formats.

I strongly prefer building around stud WRs, TEs, and QBs, so those are what I target heavily in trades and drafts. Their value and production tends to be much more stable from year to year than RBs, and the studs tend to be productive for longer, which allows for a nice competiive base to build around.

I've found that it's fairly easy to round out a highly competitive roster with devalued (either due to age, lack of perceived talent, injury concerns, etc.), but still productive, RBs. Last year I won a championship with C. Johnson, Moreno, and B. Brown featured down the stretch. If I win this week, I'll be in the finals in the same league with Bush and Murray leading the charge. None of those guys are cracking anyone's dynasty top 10 RB lists, but they're highly productive and much easier to acquire than your prototypical dynasty RB1s. Even backup RBs tend to be much more plug-and-play than their WR equivalents.

Honestly, I think the fact that this strategy has been better and more successful in recent years leads a lot of people to assume it's intrinsically better and more successful. Sure, when we're in a golden age of WR talent and QBs and facing the worst crop of dynasty RBs in memory, it's easy to say that building around QB and WR was the better strategy. Back in the late '90s and early '00s, which was the modern golden age of workhorse RBs and when the only consistently great WRs were Harrison, Moss, and Owens, a lot of owners would have said it was self-evidently obvious that building around RBs was the way to go.

At the end of the day, the only universally successful strategy is going to be building around talent, regardless of what position that talent plays.

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree with a lot of your thoughts within the positions, but disagree with your thoughts between positions. In my mind, my goal is to stockpile of talent. If there's a huge glut of talent at the WR position, my reaction isn't to say "it's deep and I can get some later", passing on the position... my reaction is to draft a boatload of those top WRs. There is no universe where I'd be taking Gio Bernard over the WRs available in the late 1st, or Lacy over the WRs available in the 2nd round. I like Gio and Lacy, I have both as top-5 RBs, iirc... but I think the WRs available at the same point will simply be more talented players.

Dez Bryant is still my #1 player in dynasty PPR formats, followed by a couple more WRs - all ahead of my highest rated RB; McCoy. So there are plenty of situations where I would select a WR in the first round.

I don't mean to suggest that we reach for RBs. I suggest we put ourselves in a position where we won't have to reach. In order to do that, we have to find spots in the draft where the RB talent is equal to that of the WRs on the board. For me, that's the spots that I mentioned (McCoy: 5-7; Charles: 8-12; Martin/Gio: 10-12, etc). For others, those spots could be elsewhere.

Gio and Jeffery are very close to me, in terms of talent. I want to put myself in a position where they are the top options, and take the RB. Because in round 3, when deciding between Cruz/Brown and Murray/Forte - it's not going to be close. Even worse in round 6 when it's Tavon Austin or Ben Tate.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

At the end of the day, the only universally successful strategy is going to be building around talent, regardless of what position that talent plays.

Amen.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Brown is flat out stud. I along with others, refused to buy into it until the half way point of this season. He finds open space like no other.

He beats double teams, it's just amazing that dude finds ways to beat you even though he's the only legitamate passing option on the team.

No offense to Emmanuel and Cotchery. Antonio Brown is a top 5-10 dynasty WR going forward, imo.

Definitely coming around to this line of thought. In a yardage-heavy league that counts punt returns the same as receiving, Brown is the #1 WR this year after finishing in the top 5 in 2011. In that scoring system, I'd put Brown in the Green/Julio/Calvin/Dez/Demaryius/Harvin cluster as untouchable cornerstone receivers.

 

[Concept Coop]

At the end of the day, the only universally successful strategy is going to be building around talent, regardless of what position that talent plays.

I have to disagree.

Where do Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck fall in your rankings compared to Alfred Morris and Eddie Lacy? Now how do they compare as talents? Your rankings are not going to lineup with your talent evaluation; nor should they.

Jordan Reed is likely on par with, say, Robert Woods as a talent. Who's more valuable? Why?

 

[Adam Harstad]

I agree with a lot of your thoughts within the positions, but disagree with your thoughts between positions. In my mind, my goal is to stockpile of talent. If there's a huge glut of talent at the WR position, my reaction isn't to say "it's deep and I can get some later", passing on the position... my reaction is to draft a boatload of those top WRs. There is no universe where I'd be taking Gio Bernard over the WRs available in the late 1st, or Lacy over the WRs available in the 2nd round. I like Gio and Lacy, I have both as top-5 RBs, iirc... but I think the WRs available at the same point will simply be more talented players.

Dez Bryant is still my #1 player in dynasty PPR formats, followed by a couple more WRs - all ahead of my highest rated RB; McCoy. So there are plenty of situations where I would select a WR in the first round.

I don't mean to suggest that we reach for RBs. I suggest we put ourselves in a position where we won't have to reach. In order to do that, we have to find spots in the draft where the RB talent is equal to that of the WRs on the board. For me, that's the spots that I mentioned (McCoy: 5-7; Charles: 8-12; Martin/Gio: 10-12, etc). For others, those spots could be elsewhere.

Gio and Jeffery are very close to me, in terms of talent. I want to put myself in a position where they are the top options, and take the RB. Because in round 3, when deciding between Cruz/Brown and Murray/Forte - it's not going to be close. Even worse in round 6 when it's Tavon Austin or Ben Tate.

I guess that's just a philosophical difference. You like to come out of startups with a pretty balanced lineup. I don't care how balanced my lineup is after a startup. If I exit a startup with 12 WRs and don't select an RB before the 11th, that's okay with me. There'll be injuries at RB that will provide me with opportunities to plug holes. There will be injuries at WR elsewhere that will give me appealing trade bait. Plus, lots of picks bust, so I might have 12 WRs I like after the draft, but I might only have 6 WRs I like after 8 weeks.

 

[Concept Coop]

I guess that's just a philosophical difference. You like to come out of startups with a pretty balanced lineup. I don't care how balanced my lineup is after a startup. If I exit a startup with 12 WRs and don't select an RB before the 11th, that's okay with me. There'll be injuries at RB that will provide me with opportunities to plug holes. There will be injuries at WR elsewhere that will give me appealing trade bait. Plus, lots of picks bust, so I might have 12 WRs I like after the draft, but I might only have 6 WRs I like after 8 weeks.

Yeah - that's a big part of it. I do like to have flexiblity to make moves in season, especially once my current season chances are a bit more clear. But if I can leave a startup without feeling like I need to make moves - that's ideal for me.

 

[Adam Harstad]

At the end of the day, the only universally successful strategy is going to be building around talent, regardless of what position that talent plays.

I have to disagree.

Where do Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck fall in your rankings compared to Alfred Morris and Eddie Lacy? Now how do they compare as talents? Your rankings are not going to lineup with your talent evaluation; nor should they.

Jordan Reed is likely on par with, say, Robert Woods as a talent. Who's more valuable? Why?

I haven't done overall rankings since preseason, but I strongly suspect that when I do, those guys will fall ahead of Morris and Lacy. Alfred Morris is currently my #10 dynasty RB. This last offseason, I had five QBs ranked above my #10 dynasty RB, and that was in a much stronger-looking RB crop.

Obviously positional scarcity plays a role. Perhaps I should say "talent over baseline", especially once you get outside of the true HoF-caliber players and into the Alfred Morrises, Jordan Reeds, and Robert Woods of the world. There's not a ton of talent difference between any of those guys, to be honest. Regardless of position, though, an elite talent trumps a good talent, and the quality of a position is only a function of the talent of the position. Building around RBs was a much smarter move when the league was flush with Clinton Portises, LaDainian Tomlinsons, Ricky Williamses, Priest Holmses, Larry Johnsons, Adrian Petersons, or that unreal class of 2008. It's a less enticing move now that our top 5 is guys like Lacy, Gio, and Le'Veon Bell.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I guess that's just a philosophical difference. You like to come out of startups with a pretty balanced lineup. I don't care how balanced my lineup is after a startup. If I exit a startup with 12 WRs and don't select an RB before the 11th, that's okay with me. There'll be injuries at RB that will provide me with opportunities to plug holes. There will be injuries at WR elsewhere that will give me appealing trade bait. Plus, lots of picks bust, so I might have 12 WRs I like after the draft, but I might only have 6 WRs I like after 8 weeks.

Yeah - that's a big part of it. I do like to have flexiblity to make moves in season, especially once my current season chances are a bit more clear. But if I can leave a startup without feeling like I need to make moves - that's ideal for me.

It's also all in your head. If you leave the first 7 rounds with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1 TE, you feel like you have a nice balanced lineup. In reality, you probably only have 1 RB, 2 WRs, and either a QB or a TE. Busts happen, and that balance is only an illusion. Meanwhile, if I exit the first 7 rounds with 1 QB, 1 RB, and 5 WRs, I probably have either a QB or a RB and 3+ viable receivers. We've both got the same number of starters and the same number of holes, although I have a better idea of where my holes are than you do.

Or, to put it another way, regardless of who you drafted in rounds 1-7, you need to approach rounds 8-12 as if you're still filling out your starting lineup. Because you are.

 

[Concept Coop]

And I really enjoy the conversation, so thanks sincerely for that.

There will be no right or wrong. What works for me might not work for everyone else. I have to find advantages to exploit, beyond ID'ing talent. It's a better use of my resources. I won't ever have the time or discepline to "out scout" guys that do, or are simply better at it. There will always be guys in my leagues picking up players whose names I don't know. There will always be guys that see Josh Gordon and Julius Thomas coming long before I do.

In other words, I'm never going to "out EBF" EBF, and I say that out of respect. If I'm going to compete, It's going to be with my strengths and what comes natural to me; mostly analytics and numbers.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas is on his way to a 80/1000 season and he doesn't matter. He's free.

Thomas' season was 13x more valuable than Hartline's, to this point. He's the 13th highest scoring RB in PPR formats, and I highly dispute the notion that he doesn't matter.

80/1000/4 matters for a RB. 80/1000/4 is baseline for a WR. To take it a step further, 80/1000 from a RB is 13x more valuable than 80/1000/4 from a WR, assuming 2013's baselines hold up year to year.

I guess I put more emphasis into your "He's free" statement instead of your "doesn't matter" statement. Volatility at RB is built into price so even RB who are producing do not carry more trade value. Both players are equally free: you are glad to move them for something with value but won't give them away because their Y+1 baseline is adequate.

If the 22nd WR doesn't matter then there is no depth at WR.

 

[lyon812]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

 

[BeTheMatch]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there.

It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes.

Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin.

 

[Concept Coop]

Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas is on his way to a 80/1000 season and he doesn't matter. He's free.

Thomas' season was 13x more valuable than Hartline's, to this point. He's the 13th highest scoring RB in PPR formats, and I highly dispute the notion that he doesn't matter.

80/1000/4 matters for a RB. 80/1000/4 is baseline for a WR. To take it a step further, 80/1000 from a RB is 13x more valuable than 80/1000/4 from a WR, assuming 2013's baselines hold up year to year.

I guess I put more emphasis into your "He's free" statement instead of your "doesn't matter" statement. Volatility at RB is built into price so even RB who are producing do not carry more trade value. Both players are equally free: you are glad to move them for something with value but won't give them away because their Y+1 baseline is adequate.

If the 22nd WR doesn't matter then there is no depth at WR.

They're only equally free becuase the hobby doesn't think Thomas can repeat, or haven't noticed what he's done yet. Thier actual value is nowhere close, and if the market is missing that - it's simply late or wrong. The major difference being perception. We can think Hartline keeps it up for 5 years and still not value him. But if we thought Thomas could, he'd be a top 20 player.

And the 22nd WR doesn't matter BECAUSE of the depth at WR. The functional baseline is very different than the actual baseline. VBD assumes that baseline value is on your roster and everyone else's. That is the case at WR, QB, and TE. But not RB. Owners blow their entire BB balance for a few weeks of baseline production from the RB spot.

 

[Concept Coop]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there.

It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes.

Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin.

These are my thoughts, too. I value him highly, but he's in a group with a number of guys with an argument for the same ranking. I am a little worried about the Mike Williams/Michael Clayton effect, too. I worry that he's producing close to his ceiling, being in an ideal situation with few hurdles for targets.

I like him and understand the argument. But, like the quoted, I'm in no rush to crown him, yet.

 

[EBF]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there.

It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes.

Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin.

I like Patterson a little bit and have made some offers for him in a couple different leagues, but the dude is insanely expensive right now. All of the guys who own him are the same guys who believe that he's going to pan out as a perennial star, so unless you offer something like Gordon, Dez, or Demaryius for Patterson + small piece, you're just not going to get him. Which pretty much means your margin for error is zilch. I don't like him THAT much personally. I do think he has a lot of the traits of an elite #1 WR, but when you're paying WR10 prices for a guy with WR5 upside, it's not that exciting.

 

[Adam Harstad]

And I really enjoy the conversation, so thanks sincerely for that.

There will be no right or wrong. What works for me might not work for everyone else. I have to find advantages to exploit, beyond ID'ing talent. It's a better use of my resources. I won't ever have the time or discepline to "out scout" guys that do, or are simply better at it. There will always be guys in my leagues picking up players whose names I don't know. There will always be guys that see Josh Gordon and Julius Thomas coming long before I do.

In other words, I'm never going to "out EBF" EBF, and I say that out of respect. If I'm going to compete, It's going to be with my strengths and what comes natural to me; mostly analytics and numbers.

Heh, I don't know if you forgot who you were talking to, but I certainly don't believe you have to be a scout to acquire talent.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there.

It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes.

Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin.

I am sad that, despite the fact that I've got this nifty staff account, I'm still not allowed to give this post more than a single like. What's the point of having power if I can't abuse it!

 

[thriftyrocker]

We can think Hartline keeps it up for 5 years and still not value him. But if we thought Thomas could, he'd be a top 20 player.

Few think Hartline will be a WR2 for 5 years. We see his production and blame it on situational factors that will evaporate quickly (Marshall void, Wallace acclimation). There is a big value discrepancy between he and Torrey Smith despite them being very similar players the last 2 years. It is not completely due to upside as few see Torrey as more than high WR2. It is also because we trust Torrey's baseline a lot more.

And the 22nd WR doesn't matter BECAUSE of the depth at WR. The functional baseline is very different than the actual baseline. VBD assumes that baseline value is on your roster and everyone else's. That is the case at WR, QB, and TE. But not RB. Owners blow their entire BB balance for a few weeks of baseline production from the RB spot.

In dynasty, owners blow their entire BB balance for WRs with Torrey Smith upside like Kenbrell Thompkins.

I understand your theory, I just question if it is true or not. In a league where you start 2 RB/3 WR, how many desperation plays do you see at RB per week (players not likely to get significant reps/targets). I never see more than one or two a week. I think the prevalence of desperation plays at WR is just as high,

VBD is affected by looking at season long stats when RB is most likely to continually cycle in new blood. VBD baseline for RB should be based on PPG in games expected to get > 10 touches. Rashad Jennings' VBD YTD is 5. That does not tell you the story of his season. He has been a kingmaker. If you play a baseline RB all year you are getting killed.

 

[JFS171]

Think this whole strategy and valuing discussion is tremendously valuable, so thanks to everyone contributing so far. I'll throw in my thoughts/questions/musings (and I just play one 16-team, .5 PPR dynasty league - QB/WR/WR/RB/RB/TE/FL/FL).

I took over this team two years ago and inherited a train wreck. After my second straight season of playing in the 3/4 game on the final weekend, I've re-thought my strategies a bit. For the most part, I agree with Coop that the devaluing of the RB position as a whole, and the complete reduction of the workhorse RB has made that position the white whale of FF. A young, three-down RB with excellent production and age on his side is going to be tremendously valuable. I've spent a large amount of capital the last two years acquiring as many stabs at finding those guys as possible, and as a result my RB corps is deep with talent now and talent for the future... in other words, I've got a lot of shots at finding those types of RBs... which is a good thing.

But in my quest to find those guys, I noticed a LOT of quality talent at the WR position has flowed through my team. In retrospect, some of the trades look bad. I don't think you can ever judge trades in retrospect, as the product of the trade doesn't always reflect the process by which you made the deal. I believe the process was largely sound on every deal individually, but it's led to me hunting for a strong WR2 most of this season (given down years from Nicks and Roddy, and the return of Miles Austin clamping down Terrance Williams' production).

In total, I've seen Decker, Jeffery, Gordon, Cruz, Torrey Smith, Wayne, Mike Wallace, and other quality WRs come and go... and I always beat the drum of WR depth being the easiest thing to find... just baseline WR2 production if your advantage at RB/TE/QB was enough.

Now I think I'm siding more with SSOG in a lot of this... talent is talent. Period. I trust my skills to work trades and the wire, and stack them up against anyone in my league... that's how I went from this dumpster fire to annual contender. But perhaps chasing the while whale at RB isn't the ultimate end game. It's hindsight, but that doesnt mean we can't learn from it.

 

[Concept Coop]

In dynasty, owners blow their entire BB balance for WRs with Torrey Smith upside like Kenbrell Thompkins.

I understand your theory, I just question if it is true or not. In a league where you start 2 RB/3 WR, how many desperation plays do you see at RB per week (players not likely to get significant reps/targets). I never see more than one or two a week. I think the prevalence of desperation plays at WR is just as high,

VBD is affected by looking at season long stats when RB is most likely to continually cycle in new blood. VBD baseline for RB should be based on PPG in games expected to get > 10 touches. Rashad Jennings' VBD YTD is 5. That does not tell you the story of his season. He has been a maker. If you play a baseline RB all year you are getting killed.

I do think the gap in market value between Hartline and Smith is simply about upside, and not much else. That's my finger on the pulse, but it the market isn't an exact science, so YMMV.

As for a finding a functional VBD for the RB spot - you're right and make a great point: the year long stat simply doesn't work for RBs. But I have a diffeferent idea of what to do with the information, I think. You point to it and suggest the baseline is higher, because Rashad was more valuable for a span. I look to it and think it should be lower, becasue Rashad wasn't a startable option for much of the season. Standard VBD suggests that Ben Tate was a baseline RB. In reality, he wasn't for most of the season. If I was lucky enough to mog podge Tate, Jennings, Asiata, etc, then sure, I'm golden and the baseline was wrong. But if I wasn't - not so mcuh.

When you mention guys like Rashad, it sounds as though you are suggesting he's an additional asset to the field, but he's not. He simply took the place of Darren McFadden. In order for him to be additional depth to you, you needed a number of things to go your way:

-Not own McFadden

-Have Jennings on your roster

-Have a need for RB production that matches Jennings' window of production

It's easy in theory to point to Moreno, Jennings, Asiata and say,"See! RBs are everywhere!". In reality, there is a pretty stable number of RBs likely to provide value in any week. Those names shuffle, but it happens without bias or favor. Every one of those RBs produces at the expense of other backs projected to get said production.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Re: RB VBD... I looked at the RBs who were actually started during the 13 week regular season in three of my leagues and took a stab at creating an average VBD total for them based on those starts. It's complicated, so I won't go into the details, but the results look sensible IMO:

Charles, Jamaal KCC RB     120Forte, Matt CHI RB         103Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB     86Peterson, Adrian MIN RB     86McCoy, LeSean PHI RB        85Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB      73Bush, Reggie DET RB         69Murray, DeMarco DAL RB      59Stacy, Zac STL RB           36Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB        34Lacy, Eddie GBP RB          32Johnson, Chris TEN RB       30Foster, Arian HOU RB        27Bernard, Giovani CIN RB     23Brown, Andre NYG RB         20Vereen, Shane NEP RB        19Woodhead, Danny SDC RB      19Thomas, Pierre NOS RB       17Gore, Frank SFO RB          17Jennings, Rashad OAK RB     15Jackson, Fred BUF RB        11Morris, Alfred WAS RB        8Jones-Drew, Maurice RB       6Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB       5Martin, Doug TBB RB          3James, Mike TBB RB           3Rice, Ray BAL RB             3Bradshaw, Ahmad IND RB       2Rodgers, Jacquizz RB         1McFadden, Darren OAK RB      -   Brown, Ronnie SDC RB       (2)Pead, Isaiah STL RB        (2)Davis, Knile KCC RB        (2)Thomas, Daniel MIA RB      (2)Bolden, Brandon NEP RB     (2)Whittaker, Fozzy CLE RB    (3)Brown, Donald IND RB       (3)Gillislee, Mike MIA RB     (3)Forsett, Justin JAC RB     (3)Sproles, Darren NOS RB     (3)Greene, Shonn TEN RB       (3)Robinson, Khiry NOS RB     (3)Brown, Bryce PHI RB        (4)Hillis, Peyton NYG RB      (4)Mathews, Ryan SDC RB       (5)Jackson, Steven ATL RB     (5)Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB     (5)Stewart, Jonathan RB       (6)Cox, Michael NYG RB        (6)Snelling, Jason ATL RB     (6)Todman, Jordan JAC RB      (7)Bell, Joique DET RB        (7)Robinson, Denard JAC RB    (7)Randle, Joseph DAL RB      (8)Choice, Tashard IND RB     (9)Starks, James GBP RB       (9)Mendenhall, Rashard RB     (9)Ball, Montee DEN RB       (10)Leonard, Brian TBB RB     (10)Redman, Isaac FA RB       (10)Ridley, Stevan NEP RB     (10)Scott, Da'Rel FA RB       (10)Cunningham, Benny RB      (10)Johnson, Dennis HOU RB    (11)Reece, Marcel OAK RB      (11)Turbin, Robert SEA RB     (11)Tolbert, Mike CAR RB      (11)Tate, Ben HOU RB          (12)Helu, Roy WAS RB          (12)Rainey, Bobby TBB RB      (12)Ellington, Andre ARI RB   (12)Ingram, Mark NOS RB       (15)Pierce, Bernard BAL RB    (16)Hunter, Kendall SFO RB    (16)Dwyer, Jonathan PIT RB    (16)Spiller, C.J. BUF RB      (19)Green-Ellis, BenJarvus    (21)Ivory, Chris NYJ RB       (21)McGahee, Willis CLE RB    (22)Ogbonnaya, Chris CLE RB   (23)Williams, DeAngelo RB     (23)Franklin, Johnathan RB    (25)Richardson, Daryl RB      (26)Miller, Lamar MIA RB      (27)Powell, Bilal NYJ RB      (27)Wilson, David NYG RB      (33)Blount, LeGarrette RB     (40)Richardson, Trent RB      (42)

Doing it this way highlights the true value Rashad Jennings has had (RB20). And shows just how bad Trent Richardson killed his owners.

 

[Concept Coop]

Now I think I'm siding more with SSOG in a lot of this... talent is talent. Period.

I think we all agree, in theory, but it comes off as vague and ambiguous to me, so I don't know how to find value in it. Ignoring VBD/VORP is never a good thing, in my opinion. Perhaps that's not what SSOG is suggesting and I am misunderstanding him. But talent is subjective enough when comparing within position, and almost pointless doing so out of it. Who is more talented - Picasso or Beethoven? Manning or Calvin? McCoy or Julio?

Eventually we all have to take positional value into account in order to field a lineup. Whether that is done during the startup, or via trade, it has to be done.

If your rankings are the same for PPR and non-PPR formats, you're doing it wrong.

 

[Concept Coop]

Re: RB VBD...

Do you import the data into SQL tables?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Eventually we all have to take positional value into account in order to field a lineup. Whether that is done during the startup, or via trade, it has to be done.

I may be misunderstanding you, but I don't think that's how I do it. At any given time I have a mental list of players who I think may be top end talents who are selling for a discount. And I buy those players without giving up current starters.

If I don't have a good roster I take my medicine and keep building.

Doing it that way meant that it took awhile to recover in some of my earlier leagues where I didn't really know what I was doing, but even then I didn't focus on positions. I just kept buying (IMO) talented players. And now that my rosters are mature I don't have huge need and can keep doing that without having to take the short-term bullet.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Re: RB VBD...

Do you import the data into SQL tables?

Afraid not. SQL/database stuff is a huge hole in my skillset given my jobs and interests.

 

[Concept Coop]

Eventually we all have to take positional value into account in order to field a lineup. Whether that is done during the startup, or via trade, it has to be done.

I may be misunderstanding you, but I don't think that's how I do it. At any given time I have a mental list of players who I think may be top end talents who are selling for a discount. And I buy those players without giving up current starters.

If I don't have a good roster I take my medicine and keep building.

Doing it that way meant that it took awhile to recover in some of my earlier leagues where I didn't really know what I was doing, but even then I didn't focus on positions. I just kept buying (IMO) talented players. And now that my rosters are mature I don't have huge need and can keep doing that without having to take the short-term bullet.

Yeah - I worded that poorly.

I think my last, rhetorical statement makes my point: If your rankings are the same in PPR and non-PPR, you're doing it wrong. If your rankings are the same in start 1 and start 2 QB leagues, you're doing it wrong. All formats use the same collection of talent, but reward production differently. If you pay no attention to this, again, you're doing it wrong. If you do pay attention to this, talent wasn't the only factor, as suggested.

 

[lyon812]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there.

It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes.

Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin.

I mostly agree with you. The surprise, to me, is that people seem to be higher on Patterson, Hopkins, and Floyd than Allen. Allen's fall in the draft seemed primarily injury-related, not talent, and he was recently quoted as saying the Vikings planned to pick him but when Patterson fell they couldn't resist. Thus, while I definitely agree it's too soon to anoint, people seem more down on Allen's prospects of being a long-term stud than some other comparable 1st-2nd year players.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I do think the gap in market value between Hartline and Smith is simply about upside, and not much else. That's my finger on the pulse, but it the market isn't an exact science, so YMMV.

How many people think Brian Hartline is one of the 25 best WR in the NFL? Can we remember the response to his contract. I am not even sure what the breakoff would be where a majority of people would buy in. I don't even think people believe he is a top 40 NFL WR. Most teams have 2 better WR than Brian Hartline. He has been healthy and consistent in an offense without a reliable running game, and that is his only value.

I think most people believe Torrey Smith is a top 25 NFL WR. No doubt about top 40.

It's easy in theory to point to Moreno, Jennings, Asiata and say,"See! RBs are everywhere!". In reality, there is a pretty stable number of RBs likely to provide value in any week. Those names shuffle, but it happens without bias or favor. Every one of those RBs produces at the expense of other backs projected to get said production.

Certainly the strategy rewards the active owner, which likely everyone who bothers to read this thread qualifies as. And certainly it requires some contrarian thinking to attempt to identify misfit RB.

When Rashad Jennings or Knowshon Moreno gets 20 points in my lineup at the expense of the guy who spent a 3rd on Darren McFadden or Montee Ball, it is a good thing that gives justification to the strategy I've employed. Especially when my 3rd round pick is averaging 20 ppg in my WR or TE spot.

It can backfire. I agree that only a certain number of names are relevant each week. I just disagree on how hard it is to find or acquire one of those names. The well can be dry. Your waiver or trade capital can be misspent. You can cycle the wrong guy (fwiw, I dropped Jennings in the one league I needed him most after he hurt his hammy). But yes in general RBs are everywhere.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If you pay no attention to this, again, you're doing it wrong. If you do pay attention to this, talent wasn't the only factor, as suggested.

Well, there are only a few players that I consider to be elite prospects at any given time (and those are the only ones I trade for/draft early -- everyone else is either WW material, a throw in or a later pick) so I don't really worry about the position when I'm trying to acquire them.

Where it does play a role are which lottery tickets I roster. I'll always roster a longshot at RB ahead of other positions (same with QBs in start two leagues). WR3/4s aren't all that valuable and there's always a long list of prospects out there (so many that you'll still roster some even if you don't make it a priority).

 

[Concept Coop]

When Rashad Jennings or Knowshon Moreno gets 20 points in my lineup at the expense of the guy who spent a 3rd on Darren McFadden or Montee Ball, it is a good thing that gives justification to the strategy I've employed. Especially when my 3rd round pick is averaging 20 ppg in my WR or TE spot.

What strategy is that? My strategy was not to draft McFadden or Ball in the 3rd round, so I don't know that we disagree there.

 

[EBF]

Been catching up on the thread, and I'm curious at the lack of Keenan Allen in all of the top 10's people posted. He has the stats, pedigree, and quality QB but still seems to be under the radar. Back in 2012, it seemed like all of the draftniks had him ranked their #1 receiver and thought he'd be great, just like they do with Watkins and Lee now.

So, my thought is: What am I missing?

I personally think it's too early to put Allen that high. Look at the names among the top 10 dynasty WRs. I don't see what you would base it on to put him there.

It does seem like a race around here though to annoint the next greatest everyone, and people do inflate rookies way too quickly for my tastes.

Here's an example I'd be curious to see what people around here think. In one of my leagues, a poll question yesterday simply asked which WR would you rather have going forward in dynasty - Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patterson? Mine is the only vote for Harvin.

I mostly agree with you. The surprise, to me, is that people seem to be higher on Patterson, Hopkins, and Floyd than Allen. Allen's fall in the draft seemed primarily injury-related, not talent, and he was recently quoted as saying the Vikings planned to pick him but when Patterson fell they couldn't resist. Thus, while I definitely agree it's too soon to anoint, people seem more down on Allen's prospects of being a long-term stud than some other comparable 1st-2nd year players.

If the Vikes really had him as a 1st round talent then why didn't they move up when he tumbled all the way into the third? Not saying it isn't possible, but teams tell players a lot of things around draft time and not all of them are accurate. As far as Allen goes, I think what's driving the skepticism is probably that he wasn't a super high draft pick and also that he ran some truly awful 40 times. Without fitting the height/weight/speed mold there's going to be some doubt about his ultimate upside.

I always liked him at Cal, but got scared off by his ugly workouts. I still felt he had the potential to become a Colston/Crabtree type of possession WR in a best case scenario. He is really slow in terms of straight line speed, but he's also really quick in his breaks/routes, so he can get open at will on short-intermediate passing plays. He has a really high yards per target average. Especially for a guy with no deep speed. Of all NFL WRs with 90+ targets, only Josh Gordon, Jordy Nelson, and DeSean Jackson also average 10+ yards per target and those guys are all deep threats first and possession receivers second.

For Allen to be in the mix with those guys is pretty surprising. He is converting a high percentage of his targets into receptions, but also averaging a surprisingly good 14.8 yards per catch. I'm not sure that he can remain quite this effective in the long haul, but he might not have to. He's really not getting that many targets right now. Only ranks 44th in the NFL in targets (behind guys like Nate Washington, Greg Little, and Emmanuel Sanders). Yet he ranks 21st in receiving yards. So his efficiency can drop a lot and he can still produce the same output if he gets more targets in the future (which I suspect he will).

I still probably wouldn't take him as a top 10 dynasty WR, but he could be something like the next Hines Ward/Marques Colston kind of a guy. A player who quietly racks up 1000 yard seasons without ever at any point being considered one of the elite talents in the game.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Re: RB VBD... I looked at the RBs who were actually started during the 13 week regular season in three of my leagues and took a stab at creating an average VBD total for them based on those starts. It's complicated, so I won't go into the details, but the results look sensible IMO:

Start how many RB? I'm assuming 3 or 4 here based on how many clear backups get mentioned (Knile, Gillislee, Pead) and how high Rice was (who killed many a team but may look better if the baseline drops to your toes). Also, Donald Brown was a great start for a stretch, but in a deeper league I could see him getting trotted out there more frequently even when other IND RB were getting more play.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Re: RB VBD... I looked at the RBs who were actually started during the 13 week regular season in three of my leagues and took a stab at creating an average VBD total for them based on those starts. It's complicated, so I won't go into the details, but the results look sensible IMO:

Start how many RB? I'm assuming 3 or 4 here based on how many clear backups get mentioned (Knile, Gillislee, Pead) and how high Rice was (who killed many a team but may look better if the baseline drops to your toes). Also, Donald Brown was a great start for a stretch, but in a deeper league I could see him getting trotted out there more frequently even when other IND RB were getting more play.

These leagues averaged starting 31 RBs/week. But it's pretty typical that there are teams each year who get absolutely stuck and have to trot out a warm body.

Keep in mind that this is for three different leagues as well (so there are going to be more one offs). Which messes things up a little bit, but it should still be a decent guide to actual value.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Eventually we all have to take positional value into account in order to field a lineup. Whether that is done during the startup, or via trade, it has to be done.

I may be misunderstanding you, but I don't think that's how I do it. At any given time I have a mental list of players who I think may be top end talents who are selling for a discount. And I buy those players without giving up current starters.

If I don't have a good roster I take my medicine and keep building.

Doing it that way meant that it took awhile to recover in some of my earlier leagues where I didn't really know what I was doing, but even then I didn't focus on positions. I just kept buying (IMO) talented players. And now that my rosters are mature I don't have huge need and can keep doing that without having to take the short-term bullet.

Yeah - I worded that poorly.

I think my last, rhetorical statement makes my point: If your rankings are the same in PPR and non-PPR, you're doing it wrong. If your rankings are the same in start 1 and start 2 QB leagues, you're doing it wrong. All formats use the same collection of talent, but reward production differently. If you pay no attention to this, again, you're doing it wrong. If you do pay attention to this, talent wasn't the only factor, as suggested.

Yes, the baseline absolutely matters when determining value, and I don't think anyone is saying it shouldn't. If your choice is between an elite WR and an elite RB, then absolutely scoring system is going to play a role. If your choice is between an All Pro receiver and a crappy quarterback, the fact that you're playing in a 2QB league shouldn't swing your decision. Crappy players wash out of the league. Monster talents hang around forever. Instead of focusing on building around a certain position, focus on building around talented young cornerstones.

I think you agree with this, based on this comment. You seem to be implying that if your choice ever comes down to a guy you think is a very good talent and a guy you think is a mediocre talent, you'd rather roster the very good talent (i.e. Austin over Tate, Antonio over Murray, etc.)

 

[Concept Coop]

I think you agree with this...

Certainly. I think we agree.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Caveat: I only play in deep PPR dynasty leagues (usually 2QB leagues), so this advice might not be relevant for shallower formats.

I strongly prefer building around stud WRs, TEs, and QBs, so those are what I target heavily in trades and drafts. Their value and production tends to be much more stable from year to year than RBs, and the studs tend to be productive for longer, which allows for a nice competiive base to build around.

I've found that it's fairly easy to round out a highly competitive roster with devalued (either due to age, lack of perceived talent, injury concerns, etc.), but still productive, RBs. Last year I won a championship with C. Johnson, Moreno, and B. Brown featured down the stretch. If I win this week, I'll be in the finals in the same league with Bush and Murray leading the charge. None of those guys are cracking anyone's dynasty top 10 RB lists, but they're highly productive and much easier to acquire than your prototypical dynasty RB1s. Even backup RBs tend to be much more plug-and-play than their WR equivalents.

Honestly, I think the fact that this strategy has been better and more successful in recent years leads a lot of people to assume it's intrinsically better and more successful. Sure, when we're in a golden age of WR talent and QBs and facing the worst crop of dynasty RBs in memory, it's easy to say that building around QB and WR was the better strategy. Back in the late '90s and early '00s, which was the modern golden age of workhorse RBs and when the only consistently great WRs were Harrison, Moss, and Owens, a lot of owners would have said it was self-evidently obvious that building around RBs was the way to go.

At the end of the day, the only universally successful strategy is going to be building around talent, regardless of what position that talent plays.

I don't think it's intrinsically better. I just think it's better now in deeper PPR formats given the current league dynamics. The PPR format means there are significantly more startable RBs any given week, especially given the league's current RBBC and increased passing trends. That's an advantage that can be pressed, because people still tend to fixate on/overvalue and overpay for the young RB1 flavor of the moment with bellcow potential (Richardson, Martin, Wilson, L. Miller, etc.) at the expense of elite (and less risky) talent at other positions.

Case study: In a deep lineup dynasty PPR startup this past year one could have easily grabbed a Bush/Murray in the 3rd, Bernard/Lacy in the 4th, Mathews in the 6th, Michael in the 10th, Woodhead in the 13th, and P. Thomas in the 17th. Add that to a your choice of WR1 in the first, Graham/Gronk in the 2nd, your QB of choice in the 5th, etc. and that's a really solid competitive core both now and for the future.

I mention those names specifically because those slots are where I believed the value sweet-spot was for RBs at the time and those are the choices that were available to me at my picks. Bush was undervalued relative to his ceiling because of his age, Murray/Mathews because of their injury histories, and Woodhead/Thomas because they were 3rd down backs in RBBCs. Bush/Murray/Woodhead are all top 10 RBs in that league this year, Lacy is 11th, Bernard is 13th, Thomas is 14th, and Mathews is 18th.

In pre-season trades I specifically targeted undervalued talents like Gordon, Blackmon, and Murray and was able to obtain all 3 at reasonable (i.e. not parting with core pieces) prices in most leagues.

Ultimately I agree that it's all about finding undervalued talent. For me that usually is found at the non-RB positions and with RBs who are consided dynasty RB2s for various reasons in spite of their (obvious, IMO) upside.

I'm sure others have found different paths to success, but this strategy has worked particularly well for me in recent years and I think there's still value in it. Soon enough it will be obsolete.

 

[JFS171]

Ultimately I agree that it's all about finding undervalued talent. For me that usually is found at the non-RB positions and with RBs who are consided dynasty RB2s for various reasons in spite of their (obvious, IMO) upside.

This may phrase up what I was trying to say earlier better than I said it.

While the dearth of quality dynasty RBs and quality RB production pushes their value higher... EVERYONE values them more highly... it's hard to get a 'good' deal on them. It appears, at least in my experience, that the non-RB positional talent is cheaper relative to the production advantage.

Perhaps it's better to keep throwing numerous darts at RB production, but look to investments in undervalued WR/TE/QB production to create an advantage over leaguemates over the long haul.

 

[Instinctive]

1. Bump

Re: RB VBD...

Do you import the data into SQL tables?

Afraid not. SQL/database stuff is a huge hole in my skillset given my jobs and interests.

2. I have actually been teaching myself a ton of programming lately and would love to have some datasets to work with if you guys have any suggestions and requests. I'm focusing on SQL and HADOOP mainly for the BigData applications. I know it could be applied here, but haven't gotten around to finding a data set and playing with the data - rather I've been doing a lot of courses and reading.

Tl;dr - I'd love a data set to test out newfound SQL skillz. Feel free to PM.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Anyone have any thoughts about Mikel Leshoure's future? In his favor:

• He's only 23 and is now two years+ removed from his achilles surgery.
• Hasn't been in any trouble and hasn't complained about being inactive.
• It's easy to make the case that he's just a bad fit for the current regime's offense.
• And IIRC the Lions were approached with trade offers pre-2013 and turned them down. So there may be potential suitors out there.

Am I the only one looking at him as a decent lottery ticket for 2014+?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Anyone have any thoughts about Mikel Leshoure's future? In his favor:

• He's only 23 and is now two years+ removed from his achilles surgery.
• Hasn't been in any trouble and hasn't complained about being inactive.
• It's easy to make the case that he's just a bad fit for the current regime's offense.
• And IIRC the Lions were approached with trade offers pre-2013 and turned them down. So there may be potential suitors out there.

Am I the only one looking at him as a decent lottery ticket for 2014+?

I grabbed him off waivers in one league when he was cut d/t injury / bye crunch -- and immediately got two "you suck" texts from other good owners who bid just shy of what I laid down. I wouldn't mind rostering him for cheap in other leagues also, but most people seem to be holding.

He didn't look great in 2012, but neither did he look terrible -- and it's reasonable to hope that he'll be improved the further out we get from his injury. He profiles as a 3 down RB -- big enough to be used at the goal line and can also catch.

He'll hit UFA after next year as a young RB with pedigree and a year of decent production under his belt. As a stash, what's not to like?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Feel free to discuss, but I wanted to make a quick record where I'll be able to find it later of true prospect guys (not vets like Stewart, Santonio or DAX) I'm rostering after the 2013 season. There are some others, but I expect I'll drop those guys ahead of next year's rookie drafts. These are guys I'd like to hold until there's new info:

Bray (11)

-----------------------

C Michael (8)*

L James (5)*

Leshoure (5)

CJ Anderson (11)

Turbin (3)

Polk (2)

-----------------------

M Brown (8)*

S Bailey (5)

Patton (4)

C Johnson (7)

-----------------------

None

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Anyone have any thoughts about Mikel Leshoure's future? In his favor:

• He's only 23 and is now two years+ removed from his achilles surgery.
• Hasn't been in any trouble and hasn't complained about being inactive.
• It's easy to make the case that he's just a bad fit for the current regime's offense.
• And IIRC the Lions were approached with trade offers pre-2013 and turned them down. So there may be potential suitors out there.

Am I the only one looking at him as a decent lottery ticket for 2014+?

I grabbed him off waivers in one league when he was cut d/t injury / bye crunch -- and immediately got two "you suck" texts from other good owners who bid just shy of what I laid down. I wouldn't mind rostering him for cheap in other leagues also, but most people seem to be holding.

He didn't look great in 2012, but neither did he look terrible -- and it's reasonable to hope that he'll be improved the further out we get from his injury. He profiles as a 3 down RB -- big enough to be used at the goal line and can also catch.

He'll hit UFA after next year as a young RB with pedigree and a year of decent production under his belt. As a stash, what's not to like?

Pretty much where I'm at too, but he seems to be really out of favor for most dynasty guys.