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Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
What is Thigpen's value now? How does he compare to Shaun Hill or Chad Henne or Drew Stanton?
george
Footballguy
Great thread. I've checked out the blog.
My first year playing in a Keeper League. I'm now out of playoff contention. Anyone have a list of what backup RBs might be good to pick up and stash if they are going to be FA this offseason? I know your blog said Sproles is a UFA this offseason. Any other RBs that might get traded or sign elsewhere?
I'm thinking Michael Bush would be a good play with the crowd in Oak? Ricky Williams also comes to mind.
My first year playing in a Keeper League. I'm now out of playoff contention. Anyone have a list of what backup RBs might be good to pick up and stash if they are going to be FA this offseason? I know your blog said Sproles is a UFA this offseason. Any other RBs that might get traded or sign elsewhere?
I'm thinking Michael Bush would be a good play with the crowd in Oak? Ricky Williams also comes to mind.
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SierraKiloBravo
Footballguy
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Offered J.Charles and a possibly top 3 rookie pick plus a late 1st (10-12) range for our boy CJ3
Is he trying to sneak me....
Not sure on this one.
Is he trying to sneak me....
Not sure on this one.
i think i'd pass on that. charles just doesn't excite me.
That one would definitely depend upon how you feel about Charles and the top college prospects. I personally don't see any way Larry Johnson is brought back to Kansas City next season and Charles appears to be next in line, so to speak. He has the potential to be lightning in this spread offense that they've been running. But that top 3 pick is what makes an offer like this tempting. There's some definite talent at the top of next years draft to be had. I'd defer to some of the resident college FB experts, but Crabtree, Moreno, Wells and 1-2 other running backs will likely emerge to make this a nice draft class for fantasy purposes.
az_prof
Footballguy
I don't how many times you have watched him but I have seen every game (stuck in the Oakland SF viewing area) and I would say he looks anything but slow and plodding. He shows good burst and power and speed and agility. He has a better build to be a featured back than either Fargas (who always gets hurt) or McFadden (who has been hurt most of his first year).
stevegamer
Footballguy
On Charles versus Johsnon: if you're a builder, I feel you have to at least consider it. I'd like the deal a lot more if it was a more proven guy one the other end.
Can you wait a week to see one more week's results to see where that pick is likely to be?
Can you wait a week to see one more week's results to see where that pick is likely to be?
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
It really depends on what you think of CJ3. If you think he is a future stud, then the deal is bad. You would basically be swapping CJ3 for a high first...and all you get for doing that are a RB who may never be a feature back and a late first. I don't think that is enough. I think CJ3 has more value than that.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
What is Hightowers current value? Would it be insulting to offer him to someone for what should be a top 3 rookie pick?
Out of the blue, I was offered McFadden for Kevin Smith. Never would have been offered this in the preseasion, but the other team needs some RB help now but wants someone young. And in our cap league, you're stuck with McFadden for two more years, while you can part with K. Smith with no cap hit.
Am I nuts to think twice about this? Seems like huge upside. I don't need McFadden now because I have Peterson, MJD, and McGahee.
Am I nuts to think twice about this? Seems like huge upside. I don't need McFadden now because I have Peterson, MJD, and McGahee.
As long as you don't completely screw your cap up by taking on McFadden he's a great add. I think he's a lot more talented than Smith and likely will be more valuable than McGahee by next season.I kinda think McFadden is one of the top guys to get right now in dynasty leagues. Personally I have him 3rd among the rookie class as of know,behind CJ3 and Stewart(true believer.)
Thanks. I wouldn't totally screw up my cap ($9 with $120 cap), but it would be a turd if he turns out to be a bust. Now that you make me think about it, it is a pretty reasonable price for the upside potential.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
I keep CJ3...TRUE a top 3/4 pick would have been nice. If it was GUARANTEED top 3 sure i would have really considered it, but the pick could change real quick as so many teams are bundled up at the bottom. Not to mention i like my Core around CJ3 for next year....Right now i hold the #2 picks so i will be able to add a top talent with CJ3 Cutler Big Ben Flacco R.Rice K.Smith AJ Braylon Ginn S.Rice Sheffler among others.
az_prof
Footballguy
It wouldn't be insulting but I would say his value is more like a mid to low first round pick. His long term tenure and role is not clear yet. Clearly he has done well but because he was such a low NFL pick and because he has not been declared the team's starter I think people are going to be a bit cautious.
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
its my first year in a keeper league and i have slaton and chris johnson. we give up draft picks based on when we got the guy, so i'm in fantastic shape for next year! my team this year is also fighting for the championship, so i might trade one of them now for more firepower as well. i'm in the driver's seat!!!
treat88
Footballguy
Traded him straight up for MJD.Couldn't be happier.
You may regret that if you are in a Dynasty league which I assume you are... Hightower doesn't appear to be that special to me. Just "the guy" with the job right now.
treat88
Footballguy
I got MJD.Hightower is a career back-up type talent IMO.We seem to agree.
A
awesomeness
Guest
That's a pretty lowball offer imo.
I assume you're talking about the Charles + picks for CJ3 post.Are you freaking nutz? Builder? CJ3 is 22 years old! If you're a rebuilding, ready to win now, have a team, I don't care what the situation, you don't deal CJ3. For a backup, and some picks? You gotta be kidding me. CJ3 hit, in a big way, take it and enjoy it. Build around it. Don't trade off a 22 year old RB who's dominating for 3 question marks. Dear lord.
I wouldn't deal CJ3 for 1.01. And 1.02. Are you nuts?dmacstewartmendenhallcase closed. Keep the semi-proven stud RB. People act like a top 3 pick is god's blessing to get a stud RB. Look at this year. Forte/CJ3 were late 1st picks, and are both better then the top 3 rbs combined. If I had CJ3, I'd laugh if someone offered me dmac, mendenhall and stewart. Maybe 1 of them MIGHT rival CJ3. I never trade a proven talent, for question marks. Unless the talent is old. CJ3 is 22 years old. If you were smart enough to get CJ3, you keep him for the next 7-8 years.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I agree with teamroc. I'm taking the bird in the hand, especially when that bird is an undeniably talented 22-year-old who has already proven himself to be an elite running back at the NFL level.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Chris Johnson = nucleus player. For both builders and contenders, nucleus player >>> draft picks.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
First guy that comes to my mind is Derrick Ward. He and Jacobs are both free agents, and Jacobs seems like the one more likely to be kept as the 1A with Bradshaw moving into Ward's role. Ward didn't draw much interest as a free agent last season, but he was coming off a major injury. I think he will generate more interest this time around and could end up as the larger split in a committee attack somewhere else.I've like Ricky at times in the past, but I just don't see him doing any more than he's doing now since both he and Ronnie will be in Miami together the foreseeable future.I would much rather have Michael Bush than Justin Fargas in a Dynasty league.george said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't think that's lowball at all. We don't know what Hightower's future holds in Arizona yet. If somebody wants to gamble on him being a workhorse back in a top-flight offense, you could certainly argue that it's a more worthwhile gamble than the No. 3 rookie pick in most Dynasty drafts.Edit to add: just look at the flameout rate among No. 3 picks. Just off the top of my head, the last five years have seen guys like Chris Perry, Cedric Benson, J.J. Arrington, Laurence Maroney, and Rashard Mendenhall. Too early to call Mendenhall a flameout, but his owners certainly haven't gotten anything out of him yet while his value has dropped.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think he has very intriguing value for the rest of the season, but his post-2008 value is up in the air. Will an NFL team really go into a season planning to use a shotgun/spread offense? It seems to me that Thigpen's 2008 production will go into the books as just another anomaly caused by a team going into desperation tailspin mode in a lost season.My guess is that the Chiefs bring in another QB this offseason.
munchkin
Footballguy
I heard an interesting discussion on Sirius this morning comparing the rookie performances of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco to that of Big Ben's. They were specifically referring to the strong running games with solid O-Lines and Defenses making it an easier transition in that they can be more game managers than game makers.
When I think back on the labels put on Ryan coming out of college (smart, physical, gambler, interception prone) and Flacco (big arm, big arm, big arm); Ryan appeared to be the one most likely to succeed. Both players seem to be playing within themselves and have taken to their coach's supervision well.
Ben has struggled this year with very poor line play in front of him. I don't know if he is falling back on old habits (that he exhibited in college) or if he has developed these habits since coming into the league. He can't seem to break these habits and lift his play.
If we were to take the discussion to the next level, who of Ryan and Flacco seem more apt to struggle if the play around them falters? Based on what they have shown through 9 games, the current players on their rosters and the systems they play under, which of these players has the greatest up-side?
When I think back on the labels put on Ryan coming out of college (smart, physical, gambler, interception prone) and Flacco (big arm, big arm, big arm); Ryan appeared to be the one most likely to succeed. Both players seem to be playing within themselves and have taken to their coach's supervision well.
Ben has struggled this year with very poor line play in front of him. I don't know if he is falling back on old habits (that he exhibited in college) or if he has developed these habits since coming into the league. He can't seem to break these habits and lift his play.
If we were to take the discussion to the next level, who of Ryan and Flacco seem more apt to struggle if the play around them falters? Based on what they have shown through 9 games, the current players on their rosters and the systems they play under, which of these players has the greatest up-side?
A
awesomeness
Guest
If it's too early to call Mendenhall a bust, then its too early to call Hightower the next coming. Would you really take Tim Hightower over Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno, or Michael Crabtree?Fear & Loathing said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'm not calling Hightower the next coming, but I know there are people out there who believe he's going to have a ton of value as the workhorse back in a high-scoring offense. Personally, I agree that he's a second-rate talent, but you don't need to be a supreme talent to succeed at RB in the NFL. There are only 32 starting RB jobs. If you find somebody that you believe can keep the job for a couple of years, can catch passes, and will get in the end zone, then you've got some good value there. Like I said, I don't necessarily believe Hightower is all that, but it's realistic that an owner would believe he is. It's also realistic that Hightower could have major value for the next couple of years.Re: Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno, or Michael Crabtree. I don't know enough about them. I do know that guys like Chris Perry, J.J. Arrington, and Cedric Benson were just as hyped in college and looked just as good against college competition. I'm not saying I would or wouldn't take that deal. I'm just saying the offer is plenty fair because you could make a legit argument for either side. It's also clear both sides would simply be gambling on what they believed has a better chance of happening.
A
awesomeness
Guest
Fair enough. But i think most of the people who watch NCAA regularly would agree with me, that trading a top 3 rookie pick for Hightower would be a big mistake.
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Robbery.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Watching the NCAA regularly can also lead to a lot of overhyping of rookie picks.
EBF
Footballguy
Everyone knows rookie picks are a hit-or-miss proposition, but I still think your average 1st-2nd round NFL pick offers much more value than Hightower. Hightower is a 7th round pick with borderline physical tools who has basically lucked into a temporary starting job because Edgerrin James is a shadow of his former self. He hasn't flashed much talent or offered any indication that he's anything but a stop-gap solution (he's averaging an anemic 3.1 YPC). If I owned him I would trade him for any 1st round rookie pick and maybe even any 2nd round rookie pick. Yes, there's a chance that you'll get the next Benson or Perry, but you might also get the next Fitzgerald or Gore. I'll take a 35% chance at an impact player over Hightower, who I view as a near 0% chance of becoming an impact player.
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AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I play in a keeper league, not a dynasty but this thread is a great asset even for redraft leagues. 100 pages long? I really appreciate all the work you guys put into this and it's a truly phenomonal thread.
Thanks!
Thanks!
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
In his defense, when you are used primarily as a short yardage back, your YPC will tend to be a bit low. Mendenhall also averaged an "anemic" 3.1 YPC before he got hurt...just saying.I agree that Hightower is overhyped right now, but near 0% chance is short-changing his chances a bit.P.S. He was a 5th round pick, not 7th.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I haven't seen Hightower enough to have a strong opinion on his future one way or another. I was simply playing devil's advocate. You could easily make the argument that Hightower is worth more than the No. 3 overall pick. That's the point I was making. I don't see it as a lowball offer at all because I know there are plenty of owners that would rather have Hightower than the pick (myself not included). I don't think we know enough about the talent and future situation of the No. 3 overall pick to say it's far more valuable than Tim Hightower right now.There are plenty of mediocre talents at RB that end up with fantasy value in the right situation. And as we've seen with guys like McFadden, Mendenhall, and even Jonathan Stewart, it's very easy for a high pick to actually lose significant value during their rookie seasons.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
This was the point of my question. I would clearly prefer a top 3 rookie pick, but i was just curious to see if anyone thought this trade proposition was unreasonable. The only reason i may not make the deal is because he is my only real 3rd RB option in a league where you can start a 3rd RB as a flex, and i have already clinched a playoff spot. I noticed some people were overly high on him, and i would love to take advantage of that right now. I made the offer and included Camarillo to the two teams that are sure to have a top 3 pick.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I find this hard to believe. You have never found yourself on the bad end of a pick for player deal?I am usually trading players for picks, and while i have had good success doing so, i have certainly had a few backfire on me.
EBF
Footballguy
Mendenhall only had 19 carries this season, which is a much smaller sample size than Hightower's 84. More importantly, Mendenhall was a first round pick by an organization with a strong recent history of drafting very good players in the first round. If Hightower had the same pedigree then I'd be much more willing to accept the idea that he's a serious contender to become a starter in the league, but he was a 5th round pick and he hasn't shown me much on the field. In my opinion he's a notch above waiver wire fodder like Kenny Watson and Kenneth Darby. There's a chance that he seizes the starting job and become a solid player, but I think it's a very slim one.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Great posting . . . and absolutely one of my cardinals rules.I trade my first round pick away for established talents (with nucleus potential) every year, and I've never come close to regretting it. I traded my 2009 1st rounder away before the 2008 season even started.loose circuits
Footballguy
I agree with this. Especially if you think you are gonna have a good year. I traded my 1st rounder and Ricky for Dwayne Bowe...going to be a late 1st. If Thigpen is the answer, Bowe may even pay bigger dividends sooner than I thought. He had an amazing rookie year for the QB sitch he dealt with
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Perfect example. We know that Bowe is obscenely talented, but he hasn't produced elite numbers yet because he's played for the Chiefs for 2 years. He's a nucleus player, though, and a much better bet to hold value for the next 5 years than a generic 1st round pick.I agree with this. Especially if you think you are gonna have a good year. I traded my 1st rounder and Ricky for Dwayne Bowe...going to be a late 1st. If Thigpen is the answer, Bowe may even pay bigger dividends sooner than I thought. He had an amazing rookie year for the QB sitch he dealt withGreat posting . . . and absolutely one of my cardinals rules.I trade my first round pick away for established talents (with nucleus potential) every year, and I've never come close to regretting it. I traded my 2009 1st rounder away before the 2008 season even started.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
84 carries isnt exactly a large enough sample size to judge Hightower, especially considering he was used as a short yardage back. Again, im not saying TH looks good, but its unfair using his YPC as an argument against him.I hate discussing Mendenhall again, but i have to say i see alot of similaties in his and Hightowers game. Obviously their draft position still carries some weight at this point, but i havent seen anythng out of RM to make me think he is any better than Hightower.
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