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Dynasty rankings? (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop said:
I'd say I'm at least a slightly above average owner, and I absolutely use rankings to help shape my own opinions.  I can't watch every game, and even if I could, I'd still value the opinions of people I respect.  
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We all have blind spots.

If I see a player ranked higher or lower than I think they should be, that poses a lot of interesting questions.

Maybe I am too low or too high on the player for some incorrect reasons. I have certain biases no mater how objective I may try to be about teams and players.

I may learn more about certain players that stand out in trying to figure out why someone else may higher or lower than I am.

To me its not that different than looking at ADP.

Rankings can be something to discuss over a trade negotiation. I might really disagree with Mike Clays ranking of a certain player for example, and be willing to bring his rankings up if it helps establish a value for the player I see differently.

When drafting ADP and rankings can help you identify some players you do not need to take as high as you value them.

It helps to know what went into the ranking to better understand it. Scoring starters and league size can change things.

 
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Biabreakable said:
We all have blind spots.

If I see a player ranked higher or lower than I think they should be, that poses a lot of interesting questions.

Maybe I am too low or too high on the player for some incorrect reasons. I have certain biases no mater how objective I may try to be about teams and players.

I may learn more about certain players that stand out in trying to figure out why someone else may higher or lower than I am.

To me its not that different than looking at ADP.

Rankings can be something to discuss over a trade negotiation. I might really disagree with Mike Clays ranking of a certain player for example, and be willing to bring his rankings up if it helps establish a value for the player I see differently.

When drafting ADP and rankings can help you identify some players you do not need to take as high as you value them.

It helps to know what went into the ranking to better understand it. Scoring starters and league size can change things.
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All this!

plus, some of us have busy lives and like to pay a small fee for others to do the ranking for us, and then from there make a few personal preference tweaks on top of those rankings. 

 
Hey @Joe Bryant

This is the dynasty rankings thread thread I was referring to in your other Bloom 100 thread. 

[Not holding my breath for a reply]

 
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Does anyone subscribe to DLF?  If so, what is your feedback on the site?  How's their IDP coverage?  Is the site only long-term rankings/articles, or is their weekly in-season coverage good as well?  I don't really want to subscribe to two sites, and I can't see how DLF could be as strong as FBG in weekly management, but maybe a DLF subscription plus the FBG Lineup Dominator app is worth a try.  

Mods, let me know if it's not okay to have discussions like this on your boards.

 
joey said:
Hey @Joe Bryant

This is the dynasty rankings thread thread I was referring to in your other Bloom 100 thread. 

[Not holding my breath for a reply]
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Thanks. I answered over there. Not sure it's good to hold your breath for a reply on Super Bowl Sunday. 8 hours is probably the best I can do on today. Always tons better to shoot an email to subscription@footballguys.com  Thanks.

 
Dynasty rankings are tough. At DLF, I can remember Giovanni Bernard was the #1 dynasty RB after his rookie year. He dropped like a stone after that. They like the new, shiny players and will rank based on previous season, almost like redraft. OBJ was the #1 WR, he misses almost a season and he drops. Why? Hopkins dropped like a rock after his 2016 season, then jumped to #1 after last year. A ranking should consider more factors other than what have you done last year as the top priority. The good news is they're updated frequently (except for the comments). FBG's dynasty rankings/content are not their strong suit, to put it mildly.  No money from me.

 
Thanks - I agree that the Hindery article is great.  I wish there were an attached downloadable spreadsheet to go with it - I always have to build my own by copying/pasting/sorting.

 
mcd said:
100% agree. Thanks for mentioning it because I didn't realize he had released an update recently.
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Did not realize either and just read it and I think it's good stuff.

He did have one bad bit of info in that article, he seems to be under impression Mark Ingram is a FA.

 
ComfortablyNumb said:
I think Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart is the best thing I've seen on FBG for a long while.
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Can I get a link to that? It doesn't seem to be linked in the off-season content.  

Thanks 

 
joey said:
Can I get a link to that? It doesn't seem to be linked in the off-season content.  

Thanks 
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On home page of FBG website where you might normally search for players just put in Hindrey's name and you'll be able to access all his articles.

 
menobrown said:
On home page of FBG website where you might normally search for players just put in Hindrey's name and you'll be able to access all his articles.
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funny, that search field in the upper left corner literally did nothing when I typed in his name and hit enter. Just stayed on the same page with no change in content when I tried to search for his name. Odd.

So I went to Articles -> Search Articles - > and just did a browser search for Hindrey and it did find his article from 1/29...

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=hinderydynastytradevalue0118

 
Zyphros said:
There is no such thing as consensus dynasty rankings though, so although you could see on a list that player X is undervalued, that likely isn't the reality from the owner of player X.  The biggest help I find is just talking trades through with other owners or among the forums here.  The Dynasty Value thread has been fantastic in figuring a general value out, and when I talk about a certain player or situation I'm in, it helps my mind create a more sound opinion on where I land on it.  Rankings are basically nothing but personal preference and if you can figure out your own relatively easily there isn't a need.  
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No such thing as consensus dynasty rankings?  Then I guess the months I spent last off-season doing daily slot by slot polls to create a consensus ranking on this board is a false memory.  Old age catching up with me I guess.

 
Brisco54 said:
No such thing as consensus dynasty rankings?  Then I guess the months I spent last off-season doing daily slot by slot polls to create a consensus ranking on this board is a false memory.  Old age catching up with me I guess.
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Sort of a time wasted effort to me.  The minute you pull together a consensus, it has changed.  And even that "consensus" is merely 5-7 people contributing rankings that vary drastically from most of these dynasty sites.  Even the rookie ranking polls Biabreakable has made on this very board, it's good info for the general feeling of a guy, but everyone ranks guys different.  Be independent a little and think for yourself instead of relying on 5 people's opinion of where the right spot is to take player X.  Those lists are good for 1 thing, seeing where an average is.  But that average is unlikely the viewpoint of the owner of that player.  They generally view their player in a higher regard.

 
Zyphros said:
Sort of a time wasted effort to me.  The minute you pull together a consensus, it has changed.  And even that "consensus" is merely 5-7 people contributing rankings that vary drastically from most of these dynasty sites.  Even the rookie ranking polls Biabreakable has made on this very board, it's good info for the general feeling of a guy, but everyone ranks guys different.  Be independent a little and think for yourself instead of relying on 5 people's opinion of where the right spot is to take player X.  Those lists are good for 1 thing, seeing where an average is.  But that average is unlikely the viewpoint of the owner of that player.  They generally view their player in a higher regard.
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Or, maybe some people are like me: They're in 2 dynasty leagues. They don't watch a lick of college football. They enjoy playing in a fantasy league that's a notch above plain old redraft leagues. But they're not about to invest tons of time in doing their own rankings, therefore they rely on the pov of other "experts" or simply motivated people out there who do enjoy watching, and ranking, college players.

In this case, seeing what people think of players, how they rank them, and how the consensus turns out, directly informs how they draft players in a rookie draft.

And, yes, I do and must put all dynasty and rookie rankings through the filter of my own roster, league rules/format, etc. of course. But I personally need somewhere to start since I'm basically totally uninformed about college players.

 
Bia's polls had one big edge over other rankings, though, in that you could see the distribution of votes, and know how many voters valued who else at each step.  Gave a sense of how strong each "consensus pick" was and who you were most likely to see taken ahead in your own real draft, versus who was getting no traction yet.

Looking at all the picks together, you could see where tier breaks clearly developed, and when new players first came onto the radar."

 
Zyphros said:
Sort of a time wasted effort to me.  The minute you pull together a consensus, it has changed.  And even that "consensus" is merely 5-7 people contributing rankings that vary drastically from most of these dynasty sites.  Even the rookie ranking polls Biabreakable has made on this very board, it's good info for the general feeling of a guy, but everyone ranks guys different.  Be independent a little and think for yourself instead of relying on 5 people's opinion of where the right spot is to take player X.  Those lists are good for 1 thing, seeing where an average is.  But that average is unlikely the viewpoint of the owner of that player.  They generally view their player in a higher regard.
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I agree with you for the most part. There is going to be a spectrum of different opinions about players. The polls just show what the majority of people prefer who participated in the poll.  The polls are decided by the majority not the average but I get your point. Who votes on any particular poll often changes too which leads to some head scratching results at times. I can recall several times where a player was very close to winning a poll and I may have had to use a tie breaker or something to resolve the outcome and move on to the next one. Then in the very next poll that player who almost won does not get many votes. Just different people voting, or people have changed their minds in the course of a day or two.

Some of the outlier votes are very interesting to me, for example when does a certain player earn their first vote? This can be an indicator of the highest point a player may be drafted. All owners are different and it only takes one. This can sometimes signal a player who is being over looked and under valued as well.

Maybe some pre combine polls would be good?

I kind of want to change the timeliness of a polls completion by just giving each one a time limit. Its still a head ache trying to break 3 way ties that happen when using a specific deadline, but doing it that way would at least allow the polls to be completed more quickly.

I do prefer a quality sample, which is why I always tried to keep a poll going until it got 100 or more votes early on, then 50 votes when participation slows down, but finishing the polls more quickly is something that I think is worth the compromise on quality perhaps.

 
I wasn't trying to say their useless because as I and others have pointed out there is data there that can be used, but that data isn't specific to the league you're trying to compare it to, or the owners perspective of the value of those players.  That's all I was trying to get at in my poorly attempted explanations.  Even if you use the "expert" rankings there needs to be some adaptability of what you would prefer to do, like take a TE earlier than they suggest or something like that.  It's all personal preference and the rankings are a guideline or suggestion of a players value.   

 
Zyphros said:
I wasn't trying to say their useless because as I and others have pointed out there is data there that can be used, but that data isn't specific to the league you're trying to compare it to, or the owners perspective of the value of those players.  That's all I was trying to get at in my poorly attempted explanations.  Even if you use the "expert" rankings there needs to be some adaptability of what you would prefer to do, like take a TE earlier than they suggest or something like that.  It's all personal preference and the rankings are a guideline or suggestion of a players value.   
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I get it now. What you're saying is dynasty rankings are actually super useful.

;)

 
Zyphros said:
I wasn't trying to say their useless because as I and others have pointed out there is data there that can be used, but that data isn't specific to the league you're trying to compare it to, or the owners perspective of the value of those players.  That's all I was trying to get at in my poorly attempted explanations.  Even if you use the "expert" rankings there needs to be some adaptability of what you would prefer to do, like take a TE earlier than they suggest or something like that.  It's all personal preference and the rankings are a guideline or suggestion of a players value.   
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I have to ask... do you think anyone here doesn't understand that already?  Do you think we look at the rankings of others and adopt them wholesale or assume a player couldn't possibly be drafted before his ADP slot?

We're all building a crappier version of this in our heads as we see each set of rankings: http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_board.htm and http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_chart.htm.

 
Brisco54 said:
No such thing as consensus dynasty rankings?  Then I guess the months I spent last off-season doing daily slot by slot polls to create a consensus ranking on this board is a false memory.  Old age catching up with me I guess.
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That's not what consensus means.  What you created was a majority opinion result, not a consensus one.  Not belittling your effort, just clarifying the verbiage.  Consensus means a general agreement, as in "Saquon Barkley is the consensus 1.01 in fantasy mocks".  If we had that with all dynasty rankings that would be boring.  And if we had consensus amongst all owners trades would be rare indeed. 

This is exactly where the value of rankings comes from.  If I see multiple rankings with TY Hilton at WR30, I might rush out to my leagues and find out who has Hilton and start making offers.  If people are putting Barkley at RB5 already (and paying an appropriate price) I'm going to be selling my 1.01 rookie picks everywhere.  I want to know who I should be selling and who I should be shopping for.

 
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Hankmoody said:
This is exactly where the value of rankings comes from.  If I see multiple rankings with TY Hilton at WR30, I might rush out to my leagues and find out who has Hilton and start making offers.  If people are putting Barkley at RB5 already (and paying an appropriate price) I'm going to be selling my 1.01 rookie picks everywhere.  I want to know who I should be selling and who I should be shopping for.
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Except everyone in your league has access to the same rankings and are trying to do the same thing as you. Generally speaking, dynasty owners are smart enough to know that rankings mean very little in trade talks. There is one guy who every time he makes me an offer, he notes the player's ADP as some kind of reason I should make the trade. My response is always that I don't know #### about ADP, and I give my opinion on the players involved. Rankings are all fine and well to have, but if you can use them to dupe your leaguemates into making stupid trades, you're wrong(unless you play with idiots). Also, you should know on your own who you should be selling and trying to buy. It's common sense.

 
Jello_Biafra said:
Except everyone in your league has access to the same rankings and are trying to do the same thing as you. Generally speaking, dynasty owners are smart enough to know that rankings mean very little in trade talks. There is one guy who every time he makes me an offer, he notes the player's ADP as some kind of reason I should make the trade. My response is always that I don't know #### about ADP, and I give my opinion on the players involved. Rankings are all fine and well to have, but if you can use them to dupe your leaguemates into making stupid trades, you're wrong(unless you play with idiots). Also, you should know on your own who you should be selling and trying to buy. It's common sense.
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You missed my point.  If most rankings have a particular guy high, then likely most owners feel the same.  I'm looking for owners that are "down" on a guy that I'm not.  Hilton, Robby Anderson, whatever, the name was just an example.  Another possibility is rankings are all over the place on a guy - that means owners probably are too.  The Hilton owner in one league might love him while the other might be ready to wash his hands of him.

We use rankings to get a feel for the "groupthink" and then go after likely targets of opportunity.

 
The daily polls ranged from 35 to 72 votes daily, not five to seven so this was more of a consensus than you seem to understand.

  I, for one, do not claim any level of expertise in evaluating fantasy talent.  Instead, I have long been a practitioner of the market value approach to dynasty.  I trust the consensus more than any individual ranking, including my own.  (FYI, this is also a path to success in the real market.  Index funds outperform the vast majority of professional advisors, managed funds and individual investors over time.)

you are correct that markets are always fluctuating, but I do not think they change enough to make data to become obsolete overnight.  I used the final polls we created as a group for months.

My market value approach works for me, so I will stick with it.... just as I assume you will stick with your condescending arrogance when talking to strangers on message boards.  Good luck with that!

 
Hankmoody said:
That's not what consensus means.  What you created was a majority opinion result, not a consensus one.  Not belittling your effort, just clarifying the verbiage.  Consensus means a general agreement, as in "Saquon Barkley is the consensus 1.01 in fantasy mocks".  If we had that with all dynasty rankings that would be boring.  And if we had consensus amongst all owners trades would be rare indeed. 

This is exactly where the value of rankings comes from.  If I see multiple rankings with TY Hilton at WR30, I might rush out to my leagues and find out who has Hilton and start making offers.  If people are putting Barkley at RB5 already (and paying an appropriate price) I'm going to be selling my 1.01 rookie picks everywhere.  I want to know who I should be selling and who I should be shopping for.
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I concede the point.  Words are hard.  ?

 
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Jello_Biafra said:
Except everyone in your league has access to the same rankings and are trying to do the same thing as you. Generally speaking, dynasty owners are smart enough to know that rankings mean very little in trade talks. There is one guy who every time he makes me an offer, he notes the player's ADP as some kind of reason I should make the trade. My response is always that I don't know #### about ADP, and I give my opinion on the players involved. Rankings are all fine and well to have, but if you can use them to dupe your leaguemates into making stupid trades, you're wrong(unless you play with idiots). Also, you should know on your own who you should be selling and trying to buy. It's common sense.
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I'm not looking to take advantage and win trades.  I'm looking for trades that make both sides happy.  I remember an offseason after Marques Colston's rookie year when I saw that Chris Chambers was ranked below him.  I liked Chambers, so in the two leagues I had Colston in, I traded him for Chambers.  Both sides were happy, because we ended up with the WR we preferred.  Of course I was wrong, but that's fine - I got the guy I liked more.

 
Brisco54 said:
The daily polls ranged from 35 to 72 votes daily, not five to seven so this was more of a consensus than you seem to understand.

  I, for one, do not claim any level of expertise in evaluating fantasy talent.  Instead, I have long been a practitioner of the market value approach to dynasty.  I trust the consensus more than any individual ranking, including my own.  (FYI, this is also a path to success in the real market.  Index funds outperform the vast majority of professional advisors, managed funds and individual investors over time.)

you are correct that markets are always fluctuating, but I do not think they change enough to make data to become obsolete overnight.  I used the final polls we created as a group for months.

My market value approach works for me, so I will stick with it.... just as I assume you will stick with your condescending arrogance when talking to strangers on message boards.  Good luck with that!
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Loved those polls you did last year. Could you share the final results from last year for handy reference and to reflect on a year later?

 
Hankmoody said:
You missed my point.  If most rankings have a particular guy high, then likely most owners feel the same.  I'm looking for owners that are "down" on a guy that I'm not.  Hilton, Robby Anderson, whatever, the name was just an example.  Another possibility is rankings are all over the place on a guy - that means owners probably are too.  The Hilton owner in one league might love him while the other might be ready to wash his hands of him.

We use rankings to get a feel for the "groupthink" and then go after likely targets of opportunity.
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Actually, I didn't miss your point, I just don't agree with it and find it impracticable. It just doesn't work when making trades. TY Hilton is ranked as WR13 on DLF. if someone wants to wash their hands of him it clearly isn't because of the rankings.

 
joey said:
Loved those polls you did last year. Could you share the final results from last year for handy reference and to reflect on a year later?
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1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5

4.3 Stefon Diggs

4.4 Lamar Miller

4.5 Corey Coleman

4.6 (Tie) Doug Baldwin

              Rookie Pick 1.6

4.8 LeSean McCoy

4.9 Donte Moncreif

4.10 Jordy Nelson

4.11 Kelvin Benjamin

4.12 Tyreek Hill

i was thinking about doing an analysis of the results one year later, but no time to do it effectively.

there were 48 separate polls.  Each one is linked to its predecessor and successor.  It is interesting to go back and look at the discussions.

 
Brisco54 said:
1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5

4.3 Stefon Diggs

4.4 Lamar Miller

4.5 Corey Coleman

4.6 (Tie) Doug Baldwin

              Rookie Pick 1.6

4.8 LeSean McCoy

4.9 Donte Moncreif

4.10 Jordy Nelson

4.11 Kelvin Benjamin

4.12 Tyreek Hill

i was thinking about doing an analysis of the results one year later, but no time to do it effectively.

there were 48 separate polls.  Each one is linked to its predecessor and successor.  It is interesting to go back and look at the discussions.
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I think this is a pretty solid list with a few exceptions even today.

 
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