- Updated as of 11-1-11 (with new comments)
- Value scores slightly tweaked and redistributed to better reflect the difference in players. They are not meant to be a trade guide (for instance, I would not trade a 100 for 2 players valued at 50) and function more like they are on a curve (meaning a player with a value score of 100 is weighted significantly higher than a player with a value score of 90, even though it's only a 10 point difference)
- These are not PPR rankings, as I do not play in any PPR leagues
- I added C.J. Spiller, Felix Jones, and DeMarco Murray to the rankings
- I tried to add Darren Sproles, but decided I wanted all of the players in my top 8 tiers more. He would be a tier 9 player for me
Tier 1
Adrian Peterson
26 years old
100 value
With Ponder looking like a competent QB for the time being (and showing signs of having potential to be much more than that), the arrow is pointing upward for Peterson...or at least as upward as it could be for a player that I already assign a value score of 100 to. I can not state how much more comfortable Peterson makes me feel about the next 3 years of his career than any other running back. That level of comfort alone is worth trading any player to acquire Peterson, who I believe remains the best fantasy commodity in the game.
Tier 2
LeSean McCoy
23 years old
95 value
Arian Foster
25 years old
94 value
Ray Rice
24 years old
94 value
McCoy looks really, really good. Lots of people are going to be touting him as the #1 RB in dynasty formats and while I think it is a mistake, it is hard to fault them for seeing things that way. However, I also believe that his current touchdown rate is not even close to sustainable as long as he plays with Michael Vick, as I do expect Vick to return to closer to his career averages for rushing touchdowns. While Vick's presence continues to keep McCoy close in value to Rice and Foster, he is beginning to separate himself in my mind a bit and I would not be surprised to see his value score become closer to Peterson than to Foster or Rice before long.
Even when the offensive line has not played particularly well and has struggled to open up holes, Foster has performed well from a fantasy standpoint, which is a good sign for owners. It is clear he remains the unquestioned "man" in this backfield and whether it is through sheer workload (as evidenced last week against the Jaguars) or through his receiving skills (as evidenced the previous 3 weeks), he is a very safe bet to put up points no matter the game situation or opponent. The fact that his coach seems to make more of an effort to ensure that he is always involved in every single game plan, no matter what the game flow might say, is why if I had a gun to my head, I would ever, ever so slightly prefer him to Ray Rice at the moment (even though I actually like Rice more as a player from a personal standpoint).
The 3 short yardage touchdowns are going to mask the real problem that once again showed up last weekend- Flacco threw the ball 50 times and the passing game once again became the focal point of the offense. I realize they were behind, but even as they began to catch up, the Ravens continued to air it out. I'm not exactly sure what causes the Ravens to routinely put the game in Flacco's hands (especially when he has looked so pedestrian), but it has happened enough to cause me to have at least a very mild level of concern. Rice is among the most talented running backs in the league, yet he is just about the only player in tier 1, 2, or 3 who can completely disappear from his team's game plan, even if the game is close. It's not enough to cause me to drop him in the rankings, but it's enough to give me pause.
Tier 3
Darren McFadden
24 years old
90 value
Ryan Mathews
24 years old
86 value
Chris Johnson
26 years old
86 value
Matt Forte
25 years old
86 value
Maurice Jones Drew
26 years old
83 value
I redid some of the value scores in this tear to show that I value McFadden significantly more than the rest, although still not close to the tier 2 players. The foot injury is of no long term concern to me, however the decision to trade for Carson Palmer is. If it doesn't work out, not only do the Raiders have no quarterback (which will naturally hurt McFadden's potential production), but they also have very limited draft picks in order to continue to add talent around him. However, some of those concerns could be offset by the possibility of Michael Bush moving on to another team next year.
I view Ryan Mathews and Chris Johnson as very similar players, but on different ends of the spectrum. With Mathews, he is being valued here because I think it is easy to see his talent and all he needs is a true shot as an every down feature back to become a dominant fantasy asset. With Tolbert playing under a 1 year deal, that may happen as soon as next year. However, his ranking is essentially all based on potential talent and upside (and his knack for getting nicked up on a seemingly endless basis is starting to cause a small amount of worry for me).
Chris Johnson is being valued on the fact that he has proven it in the past and showed remarkable talent. For the time being, I am going to continue to allow that past performance to outweigh the extremely ordinary player I have currently been watching in 2011. I can say that when I watch the games, it is still obvious that defenses fear Johnson, as the passing game opens up to a much greater extent when he is in -vs- Ringer, however something is very definitely amiss here right now. The problem I see with Johnson is that he doesn't look like a player who "wants it" right now. I don't believe it's a question of ability or the fact that he can't break tackles or isn't seeing holes. I think it's simply a matter of him not wanting to risk damaging his body by breaking holes or making cutbacks or fighting through defenders. I am still willing to bet on him reversing that and getting his mind right, hence the ranking, but of all the players in the first 3 tiers, his is the most tenuous and he carries by far the greatest risk. If I could trade him for Mathews or Forte, all 3 of which I value equally, I would I would be thinking long and hard about it despite the fact that Johnson offers by far the most upside, simply due to the fact that he also carries by far the most downside.
I am willing to admit that I am probably too down on Matt Forte. I think at this point, many people will have him higher in their rankings, valuing him closer to McFadden or Rice or Foster. However, I can't shake the feeling that we are seeing the high water mark of Forte's career right here in the 2011 season. He looks like a completely different player than I have watched during his first 3 seasons and I am still betting that he is closer to 2008, 2009, or 2010 Forte than 2011 Forte over the bulk of his career. That's not to say that 2008, 2009, or 2010 Forte isn't valuable, it just doesn't belong in the same conversation as the tier 2 players or McFadden.
I am concerned with Maurice Jones Drew's potential to reach high performance over the remaining years of his prime. Not because of him, but because of the pieces around him. Gabbert is showing me red flags all over the place and, while still early, I am leaning more towards saying he is not the answer than he is the answer. If Gabbert isn't it, that likely means MJD will be dealing with a mediocre offense for what is essentially the remainder of his prime years, as the Jaguars likely won't abandon ship on Gabbert completely for another 1-2 years. I still think MJD is good enough to put up good production in spite of the mediocre offense around him, but I don't think it will be elite RB1 numbers. I can see myself dropping MJD out of this tier as I see more of Gabbert and continue to get a better feel for him, however until then, there is enough of a chance that he could just be going through the normal rookie learning curve that it would be unwise to not value MJD higher than the players below him.
Tier 4
Jonathan Stewart
24 years old
78 value
Rashard Mendenhall
24 years old
76 value
Mark Ingram
21 years old
72 value
Jamaal Charles
23 years old
72 value
As has been his case for his entire career so far, on any other team Jonathan Stewart would have a significantly higher value score. However, on this team, with Cam Newton eating a decent portion of the rushing pie and with DeAngelo signed to a big contract (meaning he isn't going to go away in the short term even if he is relegated to backup duty or the small end of a timeshare), Stewart's value is sapped. Neither of the factors that are sapping his value figures to change in the short term, which leaves his 3 year outlook as good, but not great. That said, I believe his short term production is about as good as Mendenhall while his future is much brighter.
Mendenhall is one of the players whose value has taken the greatest hit so far this season. I always believed he was more situationally dependent than a lot of other players and I feel that is showing itself this year. With his passing role reduced, his short yardage work (outside of the goal line) gone, and the Steelers now looking like they are going to go to more of a spread offense attack, Mendenhall's situation is suddenly looking much worse than it was last year. I don't believe he is a highly talented back, which means his value is taking a big hit with the deteriorating situation.
I believe Mark Ingram is a more talented player than Mendenhall, but can't put him higher than this until Sean Payton shows signs of believing the same thing. Ingram owners should be hopeful that the Rams physical beat down of the Saints last week provides the impetus for the Saints to rely more on Ingram, who I believe is their most talented running back. I continue to believe that the Saints will not win a title unless they gain more balance in their offense and I think Ingram provides them their best opportunity to achieve that.
Jamaal Charles was a player that I was too down on last week and have since re-evaluated. He is essentially the same thing Ingram is- an unknown and potentially very volatile fantasy commodity that also possesses a high level of skill. While he has a track record, which Ingram does not, he also has a speed reducing injury that could hurt his long term potential.
Tier 5
Ahmad Bradshaw
25 years old
68 value
Beanie Wells
23 years old
65 value
Steven Jackson
28 years old
65 value
Bradshaw leads this tier because I think he has the best chance at future success. While I actually believe Beanie and Steven Jackson will outperform him this season, I feel safer with Bradshaw over the next 3 years, causing me to value him higher (although I can't say I feel significantly higher). There are a lot of people that put Bradshaw much higher in their rankings and I continue to not see why. He looks like an uninspiring player who is the definition of above average to me. While above average isn't bad, it's not exactly something I tend to go out and seek. Add to that the chronic foot problems (which again reared their head this past weekend) and it mutes his value further in my mind.
Beanie Wells is a player who has a lot of his value tied up into this year, at least for me. I am very worried about what the return of Ryan Williams will do to his workload starting next season, so I can't rank him with much confidence for the next 3 years (I can't say he won't be good, either. That uncertainty is what hurts his value for me). With Beanie himself now saying his knee injury will be a problem all season long, it suddenly puts a potential damper on his value for even this season, causing him to drop from where he was last week from a value standpoint.
I moved Steven Jackson up in tier and in value because I think he is setup to have a very strong 2nd half for 2011 and of all the older running backs currently performing well, I think he is the safest bet to continue that strong performance for the longest. I would not be all that surprised if owners continued to get another 2.5 seasons of high level performance out of Jackson, while I would be surprised if Gore did that and flat out shocked if either Turner or Fred Jackson did that, meaning Jackson is a much higher valued commodity for me.
Tier 6
Frank Gore
28 years old
60 value
Jahvid Best
22 years old
57 value
Fred Jackson
30 years old
55 value
Michael Turner
29 years old
50 value
I have a sneaky suspicion that Frank Gore is going to end up being fools gold for a lot of teams. He is playing at a high level now, but I have no belief that he can maintain it for the duration of this season, let alone next season and beyond. I think any team acquiring him in a "win now" mode needs to do so with extreme caution, as I still believe the real Frank Gore could be closer to the first 3 games than the last 4 games (maybe not quite to that level of bad, but the point is I would not be surprised if he started playing mediocre again). I also continue to be somewhat impressed by how Kendall Hunter looks, which means the end of Gore's feature back days could be sooner rather than later. Even if he ends up in the larger part of a timeshare, I don't believe a 29 year old Gore can maintain high levels of production in a timeshare in 2012.
Jahvid Best is a very difficult player to gauge for me. As I have said before, when I'm not sure about a player, I tend to drop them further than normal simply because I don't like uncertainty on my teams and tend to find that relying on players you aren't sure about will hurt you more than it helps you. With Mikel Leshoure still looming as a potential factor in 2012 (albeit no guarantee, given the nature of his injury) and the mediocre way Best has run the ball so far in 2011, I'm skeptical. He seems like a player that is very dependent on the Lions maintaining their shotgun spread approach to sustain his value. Add in the concussion concerns and he is a player I would not be wanting to buy and would be looking to try and sell if I owned.
I am ranking Fred Jackson as if he will only have 1 year of top level production and will swiftly decline after that. While he may buck the trend (and there have been players that have done it), I am not betting my money on a 31 year old running back continuing to have a high level of success in 2012. I think he is a great buy if you are in "win now" mode, but only if the price is right. I currently tend to think he is going for way too much, as I have no belief in his ability to produce beyond this season.
Michael Turner is the same for me- he is getting stats, but he just isn't looking like a very good player while he does it. I think he will maintain his value this year, but as soon as next year I am very worried. I value Fred Jackson a good bit more because I think Jackson will have a stronger finish to the season and if I had to bet on 1 of the 2 to produce next year, I would bet on Jackson, if only because he has looked like a much better player this season.
Tier 7
LeGarrette Blount
24 years old
45 value
Daniel Thomas
23 years old
45 value
James Starks
25 years old
45 value
I believe LeGarrette Blount is a mediocre talent that is producing because he is the only show in town. I have no idea when another show will be added in the form of the Bucs signing a RB via free agency or drafting one, which means he has a shaky future. I don't believe his short term production will be enough to outweigh his murky future, which causes me to not value Blount very highly
Part of Daniel Thomas' value is tied to the potential to have Andrew Luck as his QB. I am as sold on Luck as a prospect as I have been on anyone at any position in quite some time and firmly believe that sooner rather than later, he will make whatever offense he is on very solid. If Daniel Thomas hangs onto the starting job long enough to reap the rewards of that, his value has lots of room to improve (I liken it to the Colts, who could afford to pretty much be plug and play at the RB position and they still put up points after Edgerrin James left town). However, the fact that Thomas may not hang onto the job long enough (we don't know yet, but he hasn't exactly blown the doors off the join in the last 3 games) and the fact that the Dolphins are no lock to end up with Luck are enough to temper my enthusiasm for Thomas.
James Starks has value as long as Green Bay doesn't draft a RB or sign one via free agency because the offense is good enough that he can have some success despite what I see as a very mediocre skill set, however I would expect Green Bay to look to add to their backfield sooner than either Tampa Bay or Miami, making me value Starks slightly less than the other 2, even if I think his short term production may be as good or slightly better.
Tier 8
DeMarco Murray
23 years old
40 value
Montario Hardesty
24 years old
35 value
Ryan Williams
21 years old
30 value
Stevan Ridley
21 years old
30 value
Felix Jones
24 years old
30 value
C.J. Spiller
24 years old
30 value
Kendall Hunter
22 years old
25 value
Mikel LeShoure
21 years old
20 value
DeMarco Murray gets slotted at the top of tier 8 for me and I realize that is going to be WAY lower than most will have him. However, there are still a lot of things I am not sure about- he has played against 2 of the worst run defenses in the league which I feel have inflated his stats, he hasn't necessarily awed me with his play (he hasn't looked bad at all, but he hasn't exactly looked great or special or whatever adjective you want to use), and we have no idea how the Cowboys will use Murray and Felix when both are healthy. I understand those that are sold on him and currently are buyers (or holders if you own him already), but I think that these flash in the pan type players tend to miss more than they hit and you do more damage to your team over the long run when you pay the inflated price to acquire them (or don't sell at the inflated price when you own them). In my opinion, the special players (or the ones that are going to last more than just a half season or season), generally show themselves right away and its evident. I can't say I have seen that from Murray, as I think he has feasted from some very poor defensive play. Sure, he has looked above average, but he hasn't necessarily done anything I don't think Felix could have done in the same situation and if he was healthy (which is something we have been saying about Felix for a long time, so I suppose there may be something there).
I continue to believe Ryan Williams is one of the better buys in all of fantasy football. I think his value now is WAY below what it will be by the time next year rolls around and owners would be very wise to jump all over it. There is far from a guarantee that he will have any short term value let alone ever amount to anything, but at lottery ticket'ish prices, he is one lottery ticket that seems to have a much better than average shot of coming through. Generally players of his level don't fall to lottery ticket type prices this early in their career. The fluke combination of a season ending injury (which shouldn't have any long term ramifications given the type of injury) and Beanie Wells' hot start have either caused people to forget about Williams or have even caused some to significantly doubt his long term viability. This is an excellent time to use that doubt to acquire him at much cheaper prices than I think he should be commanding.
I am still not a fan of C.J. Spiller, but as others in the thread have said, he is still too young and has too much pedigree to entirely give up on. I still view him as more of a lottery ticket type player, but given Fred Jackson's age and where Spiller was drafted, I may even have him lower than I should (although I can't seem to find a way to raise him above any of the players ahead of him)
- Value scores slightly tweaked and redistributed to better reflect the difference in players. They are not meant to be a trade guide (for instance, I would not trade a 100 for 2 players valued at 50) and function more like they are on a curve (meaning a player with a value score of 100 is weighted significantly higher than a player with a value score of 90, even though it's only a 10 point difference)
- These are not PPR rankings, as I do not play in any PPR leagues
- I added C.J. Spiller, Felix Jones, and DeMarco Murray to the rankings
- I tried to add Darren Sproles, but decided I wanted all of the players in my top 8 tiers more. He would be a tier 9 player for me
Tier 1
Adrian Peterson
26 years old
100 value
With Ponder looking like a competent QB for the time being (and showing signs of having potential to be much more than that), the arrow is pointing upward for Peterson...or at least as upward as it could be for a player that I already assign a value score of 100 to. I can not state how much more comfortable Peterson makes me feel about the next 3 years of his career than any other running back. That level of comfort alone is worth trading any player to acquire Peterson, who I believe remains the best fantasy commodity in the game.
Tier 2
LeSean McCoy
23 years old
95 value
Arian Foster
25 years old
94 value
Ray Rice
24 years old
94 value
McCoy looks really, really good. Lots of people are going to be touting him as the #1 RB in dynasty formats and while I think it is a mistake, it is hard to fault them for seeing things that way. However, I also believe that his current touchdown rate is not even close to sustainable as long as he plays with Michael Vick, as I do expect Vick to return to closer to his career averages for rushing touchdowns. While Vick's presence continues to keep McCoy close in value to Rice and Foster, he is beginning to separate himself in my mind a bit and I would not be surprised to see his value score become closer to Peterson than to Foster or Rice before long.
Even when the offensive line has not played particularly well and has struggled to open up holes, Foster has performed well from a fantasy standpoint, which is a good sign for owners. It is clear he remains the unquestioned "man" in this backfield and whether it is through sheer workload (as evidenced last week against the Jaguars) or through his receiving skills (as evidenced the previous 3 weeks), he is a very safe bet to put up points no matter the game situation or opponent. The fact that his coach seems to make more of an effort to ensure that he is always involved in every single game plan, no matter what the game flow might say, is why if I had a gun to my head, I would ever, ever so slightly prefer him to Ray Rice at the moment (even though I actually like Rice more as a player from a personal standpoint).
The 3 short yardage touchdowns are going to mask the real problem that once again showed up last weekend- Flacco threw the ball 50 times and the passing game once again became the focal point of the offense. I realize they were behind, but even as they began to catch up, the Ravens continued to air it out. I'm not exactly sure what causes the Ravens to routinely put the game in Flacco's hands (especially when he has looked so pedestrian), but it has happened enough to cause me to have at least a very mild level of concern. Rice is among the most talented running backs in the league, yet he is just about the only player in tier 1, 2, or 3 who can completely disappear from his team's game plan, even if the game is close. It's not enough to cause me to drop him in the rankings, but it's enough to give me pause.
Tier 3
Darren McFadden
24 years old
90 value
Ryan Mathews
24 years old
86 value
Chris Johnson
26 years old
86 value
Matt Forte
25 years old
86 value
Maurice Jones Drew
26 years old
83 value
I redid some of the value scores in this tear to show that I value McFadden significantly more than the rest, although still not close to the tier 2 players. The foot injury is of no long term concern to me, however the decision to trade for Carson Palmer is. If it doesn't work out, not only do the Raiders have no quarterback (which will naturally hurt McFadden's potential production), but they also have very limited draft picks in order to continue to add talent around him. However, some of those concerns could be offset by the possibility of Michael Bush moving on to another team next year.
I view Ryan Mathews and Chris Johnson as very similar players, but on different ends of the spectrum. With Mathews, he is being valued here because I think it is easy to see his talent and all he needs is a true shot as an every down feature back to become a dominant fantasy asset. With Tolbert playing under a 1 year deal, that may happen as soon as next year. However, his ranking is essentially all based on potential talent and upside (and his knack for getting nicked up on a seemingly endless basis is starting to cause a small amount of worry for me).
Chris Johnson is being valued on the fact that he has proven it in the past and showed remarkable talent. For the time being, I am going to continue to allow that past performance to outweigh the extremely ordinary player I have currently been watching in 2011. I can say that when I watch the games, it is still obvious that defenses fear Johnson, as the passing game opens up to a much greater extent when he is in -vs- Ringer, however something is very definitely amiss here right now. The problem I see with Johnson is that he doesn't look like a player who "wants it" right now. I don't believe it's a question of ability or the fact that he can't break tackles or isn't seeing holes. I think it's simply a matter of him not wanting to risk damaging his body by breaking holes or making cutbacks or fighting through defenders. I am still willing to bet on him reversing that and getting his mind right, hence the ranking, but of all the players in the first 3 tiers, his is the most tenuous and he carries by far the greatest risk. If I could trade him for Mathews or Forte, all 3 of which I value equally, I would I would be thinking long and hard about it despite the fact that Johnson offers by far the most upside, simply due to the fact that he also carries by far the most downside.
I am willing to admit that I am probably too down on Matt Forte. I think at this point, many people will have him higher in their rankings, valuing him closer to McFadden or Rice or Foster. However, I can't shake the feeling that we are seeing the high water mark of Forte's career right here in the 2011 season. He looks like a completely different player than I have watched during his first 3 seasons and I am still betting that he is closer to 2008, 2009, or 2010 Forte than 2011 Forte over the bulk of his career. That's not to say that 2008, 2009, or 2010 Forte isn't valuable, it just doesn't belong in the same conversation as the tier 2 players or McFadden.
I am concerned with Maurice Jones Drew's potential to reach high performance over the remaining years of his prime. Not because of him, but because of the pieces around him. Gabbert is showing me red flags all over the place and, while still early, I am leaning more towards saying he is not the answer than he is the answer. If Gabbert isn't it, that likely means MJD will be dealing with a mediocre offense for what is essentially the remainder of his prime years, as the Jaguars likely won't abandon ship on Gabbert completely for another 1-2 years. I still think MJD is good enough to put up good production in spite of the mediocre offense around him, but I don't think it will be elite RB1 numbers. I can see myself dropping MJD out of this tier as I see more of Gabbert and continue to get a better feel for him, however until then, there is enough of a chance that he could just be going through the normal rookie learning curve that it would be unwise to not value MJD higher than the players below him.
Tier 4
Jonathan Stewart
24 years old
78 value
Rashard Mendenhall
24 years old
76 value
Mark Ingram
21 years old
72 value
Jamaal Charles
23 years old
72 value
As has been his case for his entire career so far, on any other team Jonathan Stewart would have a significantly higher value score. However, on this team, with Cam Newton eating a decent portion of the rushing pie and with DeAngelo signed to a big contract (meaning he isn't going to go away in the short term even if he is relegated to backup duty or the small end of a timeshare), Stewart's value is sapped. Neither of the factors that are sapping his value figures to change in the short term, which leaves his 3 year outlook as good, but not great. That said, I believe his short term production is about as good as Mendenhall while his future is much brighter.
Mendenhall is one of the players whose value has taken the greatest hit so far this season. I always believed he was more situationally dependent than a lot of other players and I feel that is showing itself this year. With his passing role reduced, his short yardage work (outside of the goal line) gone, and the Steelers now looking like they are going to go to more of a spread offense attack, Mendenhall's situation is suddenly looking much worse than it was last year. I don't believe he is a highly talented back, which means his value is taking a big hit with the deteriorating situation.
I believe Mark Ingram is a more talented player than Mendenhall, but can't put him higher than this until Sean Payton shows signs of believing the same thing. Ingram owners should be hopeful that the Rams physical beat down of the Saints last week provides the impetus for the Saints to rely more on Ingram, who I believe is their most talented running back. I continue to believe that the Saints will not win a title unless they gain more balance in their offense and I think Ingram provides them their best opportunity to achieve that.
Jamaal Charles was a player that I was too down on last week and have since re-evaluated. He is essentially the same thing Ingram is- an unknown and potentially very volatile fantasy commodity that also possesses a high level of skill. While he has a track record, which Ingram does not, he also has a speed reducing injury that could hurt his long term potential.
Tier 5
Ahmad Bradshaw
25 years old
68 value
Beanie Wells
23 years old
65 value
Steven Jackson
28 years old
65 value
Bradshaw leads this tier because I think he has the best chance at future success. While I actually believe Beanie and Steven Jackson will outperform him this season, I feel safer with Bradshaw over the next 3 years, causing me to value him higher (although I can't say I feel significantly higher). There are a lot of people that put Bradshaw much higher in their rankings and I continue to not see why. He looks like an uninspiring player who is the definition of above average to me. While above average isn't bad, it's not exactly something I tend to go out and seek. Add to that the chronic foot problems (which again reared their head this past weekend) and it mutes his value further in my mind.
Beanie Wells is a player who has a lot of his value tied up into this year, at least for me. I am very worried about what the return of Ryan Williams will do to his workload starting next season, so I can't rank him with much confidence for the next 3 years (I can't say he won't be good, either. That uncertainty is what hurts his value for me). With Beanie himself now saying his knee injury will be a problem all season long, it suddenly puts a potential damper on his value for even this season, causing him to drop from where he was last week from a value standpoint.
I moved Steven Jackson up in tier and in value because I think he is setup to have a very strong 2nd half for 2011 and of all the older running backs currently performing well, I think he is the safest bet to continue that strong performance for the longest. I would not be all that surprised if owners continued to get another 2.5 seasons of high level performance out of Jackson, while I would be surprised if Gore did that and flat out shocked if either Turner or Fred Jackson did that, meaning Jackson is a much higher valued commodity for me.
Tier 6
Frank Gore
28 years old
60 value
Jahvid Best
22 years old
57 value
Fred Jackson
30 years old
55 value
Michael Turner
29 years old
50 value
I have a sneaky suspicion that Frank Gore is going to end up being fools gold for a lot of teams. He is playing at a high level now, but I have no belief that he can maintain it for the duration of this season, let alone next season and beyond. I think any team acquiring him in a "win now" mode needs to do so with extreme caution, as I still believe the real Frank Gore could be closer to the first 3 games than the last 4 games (maybe not quite to that level of bad, but the point is I would not be surprised if he started playing mediocre again). I also continue to be somewhat impressed by how Kendall Hunter looks, which means the end of Gore's feature back days could be sooner rather than later. Even if he ends up in the larger part of a timeshare, I don't believe a 29 year old Gore can maintain high levels of production in a timeshare in 2012.
Jahvid Best is a very difficult player to gauge for me. As I have said before, when I'm not sure about a player, I tend to drop them further than normal simply because I don't like uncertainty on my teams and tend to find that relying on players you aren't sure about will hurt you more than it helps you. With Mikel Leshoure still looming as a potential factor in 2012 (albeit no guarantee, given the nature of his injury) and the mediocre way Best has run the ball so far in 2011, I'm skeptical. He seems like a player that is very dependent on the Lions maintaining their shotgun spread approach to sustain his value. Add in the concussion concerns and he is a player I would not be wanting to buy and would be looking to try and sell if I owned.
I am ranking Fred Jackson as if he will only have 1 year of top level production and will swiftly decline after that. While he may buck the trend (and there have been players that have done it), I am not betting my money on a 31 year old running back continuing to have a high level of success in 2012. I think he is a great buy if you are in "win now" mode, but only if the price is right. I currently tend to think he is going for way too much, as I have no belief in his ability to produce beyond this season.
Michael Turner is the same for me- he is getting stats, but he just isn't looking like a very good player while he does it. I think he will maintain his value this year, but as soon as next year I am very worried. I value Fred Jackson a good bit more because I think Jackson will have a stronger finish to the season and if I had to bet on 1 of the 2 to produce next year, I would bet on Jackson, if only because he has looked like a much better player this season.
Tier 7
LeGarrette Blount
24 years old
45 value
Daniel Thomas
23 years old
45 value
James Starks
25 years old
45 value
I believe LeGarrette Blount is a mediocre talent that is producing because he is the only show in town. I have no idea when another show will be added in the form of the Bucs signing a RB via free agency or drafting one, which means he has a shaky future. I don't believe his short term production will be enough to outweigh his murky future, which causes me to not value Blount very highly
Part of Daniel Thomas' value is tied to the potential to have Andrew Luck as his QB. I am as sold on Luck as a prospect as I have been on anyone at any position in quite some time and firmly believe that sooner rather than later, he will make whatever offense he is on very solid. If Daniel Thomas hangs onto the starting job long enough to reap the rewards of that, his value has lots of room to improve (I liken it to the Colts, who could afford to pretty much be plug and play at the RB position and they still put up points after Edgerrin James left town). However, the fact that Thomas may not hang onto the job long enough (we don't know yet, but he hasn't exactly blown the doors off the join in the last 3 games) and the fact that the Dolphins are no lock to end up with Luck are enough to temper my enthusiasm for Thomas.
James Starks has value as long as Green Bay doesn't draft a RB or sign one via free agency because the offense is good enough that he can have some success despite what I see as a very mediocre skill set, however I would expect Green Bay to look to add to their backfield sooner than either Tampa Bay or Miami, making me value Starks slightly less than the other 2, even if I think his short term production may be as good or slightly better.
Tier 8
DeMarco Murray
23 years old
40 value
Montario Hardesty
24 years old
35 value
Ryan Williams
21 years old
30 value
Stevan Ridley
21 years old
30 value
Felix Jones
24 years old
30 value
C.J. Spiller
24 years old
30 value
Kendall Hunter
22 years old
25 value
Mikel LeShoure
21 years old
20 value
DeMarco Murray gets slotted at the top of tier 8 for me and I realize that is going to be WAY lower than most will have him. However, there are still a lot of things I am not sure about- he has played against 2 of the worst run defenses in the league which I feel have inflated his stats, he hasn't necessarily awed me with his play (he hasn't looked bad at all, but he hasn't exactly looked great or special or whatever adjective you want to use), and we have no idea how the Cowboys will use Murray and Felix when both are healthy. I understand those that are sold on him and currently are buyers (or holders if you own him already), but I think that these flash in the pan type players tend to miss more than they hit and you do more damage to your team over the long run when you pay the inflated price to acquire them (or don't sell at the inflated price when you own them). In my opinion, the special players (or the ones that are going to last more than just a half season or season), generally show themselves right away and its evident. I can't say I have seen that from Murray, as I think he has feasted from some very poor defensive play. Sure, he has looked above average, but he hasn't necessarily done anything I don't think Felix could have done in the same situation and if he was healthy (which is something we have been saying about Felix for a long time, so I suppose there may be something there).
I continue to believe Ryan Williams is one of the better buys in all of fantasy football. I think his value now is WAY below what it will be by the time next year rolls around and owners would be very wise to jump all over it. There is far from a guarantee that he will have any short term value let alone ever amount to anything, but at lottery ticket'ish prices, he is one lottery ticket that seems to have a much better than average shot of coming through. Generally players of his level don't fall to lottery ticket type prices this early in their career. The fluke combination of a season ending injury (which shouldn't have any long term ramifications given the type of injury) and Beanie Wells' hot start have either caused people to forget about Williams or have even caused some to significantly doubt his long term viability. This is an excellent time to use that doubt to acquire him at much cheaper prices than I think he should be commanding.
I am still not a fan of C.J. Spiller, but as others in the thread have said, he is still too young and has too much pedigree to entirely give up on. I still view him as more of a lottery ticket type player, but given Fred Jackson's age and where Spiller was drafted, I may even have him lower than I should (although I can't seem to find a way to raise him above any of the players ahead of him)
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