[DYNASTY]RB Value On Draft Day, RB Mock Draft (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

Last year's big losers were Michael Pittman, Thomas Jones (at least it looked that way), Kevan Barlow, and Marcel Shipp. Here are some candidates to fall on April 29.

Corey Dillon, NE - The Pats are always hard to read around this time, but there will be some nice RBs on the board when they pick at 21. They have to be thinking about making other plans for the future at RB.

Cedric Houston, NYJ - Cedric is in a good spot to get an extended audition at some point as the feature back if the Jets don't take a first day RB. If they want a back like Addai, he should be there at 1.29 or 2.04. Houston may have to take a backseat to the new blood.

Fred Taylor/Greg Jones, JAX - Another team in the mentioned with Maroney.

Willie Parker, PIT - Could LenDale fall? Would they take him? I could see a decent power RB prospect later that could take some of willie's carries eventually.

Domanick Davis, HOU - The first obvious choice. If Houston trades down, his value really climbs.

Dominic Rhodes, IND - The second obvious choice. His value would leap if the Colts wait until the 3rd to take an RB. Like Davis, the potential draft outcome is factored into Rhodes' value already.

Tatum Bell/Ron Dayne, DEN - Shanny. Draft Day. Need I say more? Two first round picks make the situation even more unpredictable. Imo, no RBs value stands to lose more than Bell's. If they take an RB in the first, his value is shot for the long term. Might be your last chance to sell. Dayne's value has gone up but still reflects a healthy skepticism. He's already an underdog to be the feature back, so his value wouldnt take as hard a hit.

Brian Westbrook, PHI - Ryan Moats seems more like a Westbrook clone in body type and running style than a compliment. They need a true inside runner, Moats just looked too small last year. He should still be a top target in the passing game, so his value shouldn't take a big hit unless the eagles pull a surprise first round pick.

Sam Gado, GB - He's in a similar spot to Houston. He's the most promising young back on the team behind a veteran that may well be in his last year with the team. His value solidifies if they don't bring in a decent RB prospect in the draft.

Chester Taylor, MIN - No RB gained more value over the free agent period than Chester Taylor. Could the unthinkable happen? Maroney to Minnesota? He did visit.

Deshaun Foster, CAR - An intriguing place for LenDale White to end up is Carolina. He did have dinner with John Fox. Foster has been solid when called to duty, but hasn't stayed healthy for a long enough stretch to be thought of as a guy you can depend on. He's also not the best goal line runner. White might be able to seamlessly step into Stephen Davis's role.

Warrick Dunn, ATL - Before Atlanta traded down from #15, a lot of mocks had them taking DeAngelo Williams. Guys like Maurice Drew and Brian Calhoun could fill his role well and will be available when the Falcons pick in the 2nd.

Frank Gore, SF - Gore ran well last year, but its only natural to wonder how long he will hold up. Kevan Barlow's window of opportunity is closing. The 49ers could take an RB to develop for the near future who could swoop in the next time Gore gets hurt.

Im making a best guess for late first and second and throwing darts after that, but its a fun exercise:

RB Mock Draft (updated to reflect CC's Oakland info)

1(1) Houston - Reggie Bush, USC

1(22) Denver - DeAngelo Williams, Memphis

1(27) Carolina - LenDale White, USC

1(30) Indianapolis - Laurence Maroney, Minnesota

2(35) NY Jets - Joseph Addai, LSU

2(47) Atlanta - Maurice Drew, UCLA

2(52) New England - Jerious Norwood, Mississippi St

3(78) Cleveland - Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin

3(92) Jacksonville - Andre Hall, South Florida

3(96) Pittsburgh - Cedric Humes, Virginia Tech

4(101) Oakland - Leon Washington, Florida St

4(104) Green Bay - Taurean Henderson, Texas Tech

4(124) NY Giants - Jerome Harrison, Washington St

4(127) Philadelphia - De'Arrius Howard, Arkansas

5(154) Kansas City - Terrence Whitehead, Oregon

5(166) Baltimore - Derrick Ross, Tarleton St.

6(175) San Francisco - Gerald Riggs, Tennessee

6(178) Buffalo - Wendell Mathis, Fresno State

7(215) Tennessee - Wali Lundy, Virginia

 

[Bears_Man2]

Nice list & I agree with it.

I think the safest on your list is Chester Taylor. If Minnesota goes RB, it's mid-draft and probably is more of a threat to whatever role Fason has (short yardage perhaps?).

Memo is probably sufficient as a backup RB & is a decent fit for the offense. He's still not recovered is he??

 

[trader jake]

Brian Westbrook, PHI - Ryan Moats seems more like a Westbrook clone in body type and running style than a compliment. They need a true inside runner, Moats just looked too small last year. He should still be a top target in the passing game, so his value shouldn't take a big hit unless the eagles pull a surprise first round pick.

great post bloom - i'll disagree with westbrook thoughhe doesn't get 15+ carries very often, doesn't get the goal-line looks already, and has never carried the ball more than 177 times in a season. so...he's not a full-fledged #1 RB already and unless the eagles invest their a 1st round pick in reggie bush or deangelo williams i don't see his role changing at all

 

[Aaronur]

Brian Westbrook, PHI - Ryan Moats seems more like a Westbrook clone in body type and running style than a compliment. They need a true inside runner, Moats just looked too small last year. He should still be a top target in the passing game, so his value shouldn't take a big hit unless the eagles pull a surprise first round pick.

great post bloom - i'll disagree with westbrook thoughhe doesn't get 15+ carries very often, doesn't get the goal-line looks already, and has never carried the ball more than 177 times in a season. so...he's not a full-fledged #1 RB already and unless the eagles invest their a 1st round pick in reggie bush or deangelo williams i don't see his role changing at all

I have to agree, I think Westbrook has a great role in on the Eagles. They could stand a guy, T.J. Duckett (next year maybe), who can come in and take 10-15 hand offs top augment the running game, but I doubt the Eagles try and replace Westbrook he is just too good at what he does.

 

[Chaos Commish]

4(101) Oakland - Jerome Harrison, Washington St

I got an "insider" needs and draft evaluation from the Raider fan I trust the most yesterday. He's not really an insider, thus the quotes, but he's as close as you can get, imo.This may not go over well on a fantasy board, but he could care less about that. He says the Raiders are a little disenchanted with Lamont Jordan. He caught a lot of balls, but led the league in drops. They are not happy with him as a receiving back despite the production. He cannot run solid routes. You can only dump the ball off to him. He's fine running between the tackles, pretty good in pass protection, but really lacking on the outside where the Raiders love to get it going.

They are looking for their Napoleon Kaufman. Fargas isn't working out. They want a committe approach. Someone like Drew, Calhoun, Norwood-- a nice receiving back, is probably a guarantee on day one. If not look out for Washington or Henderson on day 2. I'm not sure Harrison is a good fit because they want someone more explosive than Jordan catching all those passes. Harrison is a nice back I like more than most, but he isn't nearly as polished receiving as the others.

All this said to toss up the red flag for Jordan owners. The Raiders are looking for a 1-2 punch at RB.

 

[Spike]

4(101) Oakland - Jerome Harrison, Washington St

I got an "insider" needs and draft evaluation from the Raider fan I trust the most yesterday. He's not really an insider, thus the quotes, but he's as close as you can get, imo.This may not go over well on a fantasy board, but he could care less about that. He says the Raiders are a little disenchanted with Lamont Jordan. He caught a lot of balls, but led the league in drops. They are not happy with him as a receiving back despite the production. He cannot run solid routes. You can only dump the ball off to him. He's fine running between the tackles, pretty good in pass protection, but really lacking on the outside where the Raiders love to get it going.

They are looking for their Napoleon Kaufman. Fargas isn't working out. They want a committe approach. Someone like Drew, Calhoun, Norwood-- a nice receiving back, is probably a guarantee on day one. If not look out for Washington or Henderson on day 2. I'm not sure Harrison is a good fit because they want someone more explosive than Jordan catching all those passes. Harrison is a nice back I like more than most, but he isn't nearly as polished receiving as the others.

All this said to toss up the red flag for Jordan owners. The Raiders are looking for a 1-2 punch at RB.

This will be an interesting one to watch unfold.

 

[EastBayFunk]

I don't think DeAngelo will go to Denver at 22. If Shanahan is going to risk a first on a RB, then I think it will be White. Otherwise, I think he'll be content to mine the mid-late rounds for a Jerome Harrison or Wali Lundy.

As for Williams, I think he goes to New England at 21 or lands in an unexpected location.

I've learned a few things from following the draft over the years:

1. RBs tend to be over-projected by draftniks. Last year was an exception, but 2004 and 2003 were great examples. Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, and Larry Johnson couldn't crack the top 20. I have DeAngelo rated lower than all of those guys, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall into the 20s or even the 30s. There aren't many teams in the 10-20 range with acute RB needs, and I don't think he's special enough to get many teams excited.

2. Screwy things always happen. For example: Steven Jackson falling to 24. Cedric Benson to Chicago at 1.04. Chris Perry over Kevin Jones. Willis McGahee to Buffalo. You get the idea. In the draft, expect the unexpected. It's obviously tough to predict the unpredictable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see White or Maroney go before Williams, or Addai go before Maroney. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a team like Dallas, NYG, Jacksonville, or Atlanta take one of the premium backs.

At any rate, things are going to get interesting in the 20-50 range. That's where we should see White, Maroney, Williams, and Addai come off the board. I'd be lying I said I know where they'll end up.

 

[Traders2001]

4(101) Oakland - Jerome Harrison, Washington St

I got an "insider" needs and draft evaluation from the Raider fan I trust the most yesterday. He's not really an insider, thus the quotes, but he's as close as you can get, imo.This may not go over well on a fantasy board, but he could care less about that. He says the Raiders are a little disenchanted with Lamont Jordan. He caught a lot of balls, but led the league in drops. They are not happy with him as a receiving back despite the production. He cannot run solid routes. You can only dump the ball off to him. He's fine running between the tackles, pretty good in pass protection, but really lacking on the outside where the Raiders love to get it going.

They are looking for their Napoleon Kaufman. Fargas isn't working out. They want a committe approach. Someone like Drew, Calhoun, Norwood-- a nice receiving back, is probably a guarantee on day one. If not look out for Washington or Henderson on day 2. I'm not sure Harrison is a good fit because they want someone more explosive than Jordan catching all those passes. Harrison is a nice back I like more than most, but he isn't nearly as polished receiving as the others.

All this said to toss up the red flag for Jordan owners. The Raiders are looking for a 1-2 punch at RB.

Agreed 150% with the Raiders .I dont why everyone is so high on Jordan, i had him on my team last season so i watched most of the Raider games.

I was so disappointed and unimpressed that i could not stand looking at games i traded him.

He is slow , no moves , no power ( he runs like Ron Dayne ) .

Ok ill give you decent receiver and goal line back , but that s it.

Nothing special.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Brian Westbrook, PHI - Ryan Moats seems more like a Westbrook clone in body type and running style than a compliment. They need a true inside runner, Moats just looked too small last year. He should still be a top target in the passing game, so his value shouldn't take a big hit unless the eagles pull a surprise first round pick.

great post bloom - i'll disagree with westbrook thoughhe doesn't get 15+ carries very often, doesn't get the goal-line looks already, and has never carried the ball more than 177 times in a season. so...he's not a full-fledged #1 RB already and unless the eagles invest their a 1st round pick in reggie bush or deangelo williams i don't see his role changing at all

Thats basically what I was saying - his value is just as much from the passing game as his modest carry numbers. Still, if the eagles surprise us and take an RB at 14 (white?), then westbrook would take at least a slight hit because it would add another focal point to the offense.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

4(101) Oakland - Jerome Harrison, Washington St

I got an "insider" needs and draft evaluation from the Raider fan I trust the most yesterday. He's not really an insider, thus the quotes, but he's as close as you can get, imo.This may not go over well on a fantasy board, but he could care less about that. He says the Raiders are a little disenchanted with Lamont Jordan. He caught a lot of balls, but led the league in drops. They are not happy with him as a receiving back despite the production. He cannot run solid routes. You can only dump the ball off to him. He's fine running between the tackles, pretty good in pass protection, but really lacking on the outside where the Raiders love to get it going.

They are looking for their Napoleon Kaufman. Fargas isn't working out. They want a committe approach. Someone like Drew, Calhoun, Norwood-- a nice receiving back, is probably a guarantee on day one. If not look out for Washington or Henderson on day 2. I'm not sure Harrison is a good fit because they want someone more explosive than Jordan catching all those passes. Harrison is a nice back I like more than most, but he isn't nearly as polished receiving as the others.

All this said to toss up the red flag for Jordan owners. The Raiders are looking for a 1-2 punch at RB.

I almost put Leon Washington there instead, now that makes a lot more sense. Thanks for the tip.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Calhoun is visiting the Falcons today. id be mildly surprised if they didnt take him or Drew on the first day, they are both perfect fits. Drew even knows the offensive terminology already because UCLA ran the same kind of scheme. In Drew's draft diary he said that they drilled short passes at time, which baffled him - he guessed it was because Vick threw everything so hard (LOL). He also said the Steelers seemed real interested in him (hmmmm)

 

[beto]