Dynasty & Redraft: WR Paul Richardson (2 Viewers)

[cstu]

Now the 6ft, 175 lbs receiver has to prepare his body for the NFL.

“I’ve never had my body go through such training,” Richardson said of his pre-draft preparation. “It was quite the process. As far as training, basically it was just working on different muscle groups that I’ve never worked on before — preparing for combine specific things. I was blessed with the opportunity to go perform at the combine. So I did a lot of combine specific things — making sure I’d be able to pass all my physical exams and be able to handle myself in all the drills that I competed in. So, that process was great. Now I’m at the point where I’m just training and going on visits with different teams; having private workouts with different coaches and different NFL teams to better my chances and secure my spot to get drafted as early as I can.”

- See more at: http://proplayerinsiders.com/nfl-player-team-news-features/nfl-draft-profile-colorado-wr-paul-richardson-is-ready-for-the-next-challenge/#sthash.GxzQqhxa.dpuf

 

[cstu]

“I think that’s the one thing that separated Marvin Harrison from other receivers was his hands. Paul has great hands, he can make the difficult catches,” wide receivers coach Troy Walters said. “He is just a confident player. He would probably most resemble Marvin Harrison, which is high praise.”

“(He’s) definitely X-factor, he’s an amazing player and athlete and. I would have to say ‘wow,’ “ Buffs defensive back Parker Orms said.

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2013/08/11/buffs-counting-on-receiver-paul-richardson/

 

[GDogg]

He's really good, but it's a shame he, Josh Shirley and Shaq Richardson stole some girl's purse their first week at UCLA and got kicked off the team.

The WR corps of his HS team (Serra HS in Gardena, CA) his senior year is one of the best, if not the best, HS WR groups ever. The top two receivers were Robert Woods (current Bills WR) and Paul Richardson (2nd Rd pick of Seahawks). The third WR was former 5-star WR recruit and current Southern Cal WR/RB, George Farmer. The fourth WR on that team was the 2nd Rd pick of Jacksonville, Marqise Lee.

 

[LawFitz]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

 

[EBF]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

 

[cdubz]

Dude has some pretty small hands for a WR, you know what they say about small hands...

 

[LawFitz]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

 

[cstu]

Dude has some pretty small hands for a WR, you know what they say about small hands...

Yeah, I thought Kendall Wright would have trouble with drops but somehow he's been ok.

 

[cloppbeast]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

I only disagree with the contention that he's too skinny for the NFL. He's a skinny dude for the pros, no doubt. And if you look at his weight now, he appears overly skinny. But I still contend he can/will increase his weight. He may always be NFL skinny, but not as extreme as it appears at first glance.

 

[cloppbeast]

Dude has some pretty small hands for a WR, you know what they say about small hands...

Small gloves, duh.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I don't like the system at all for receivers, especially not rookie receivers. Even Harvin is a downgrade in Seattle's system.

I hope the kid is great, but this nicely sums up my opinion on all Seattle WRs.

At some point all players have value.

 

[steveski]

Just drafted this guy in a startup. Don't know too much about him yet, but Waldman's rankings and thoughts on him caused me to grab him. I believe at some point, Seattle will become a more pass happy team. Someday soon Lynch won't be the same guy or even on the team and maybe Michael won't live up to his lofty expectations and they won't have a choice. Besides Harvin and Rice, I don't think there's really any real competition so Richardson should get a shot this year especially given Harvin and Rice's constant injuries.

 

[jurb26]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

The notion that all players out of college will gain weight universally and within nearly the same rate is simply false. Not everyone has the body type to gain a lot of weight and some guys simply mature and fill out their bodies earlier in life. Recall the conversation on Donald, a guy I and many others feel has a pretty fully developed frame already. Sure, they will all likely gain weight as they get older, train harder/better but the rate will not be linear across all players. Better yet, it doesn't need to be. I'm very confident that a guy like Richardson can operate every well in the NFL by adding anywhere from 5-10 lbs to his body. His skill set is not one that requires him to overpower defenders and he's more a finesse player who will rely on his quickness, speed and hopeful refined route running. At the end of the day, technique matters more than size or strength. Just ask AJ Green who we were also told was far too skinny. Of course size and strength help.

 

[cstu]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

I only disagree with the contention that he's too skinny for the NFL. He's a skinny dude for the pros, no doubt. And if you look at his weight now, he appears overly skinny. But I still contend he can/will increase his weight. He may always be NFL skinny, but not as extreme as it appears at first glance.

I always thought Starvin' Marvin was too skinny for the NFL but he put together a pretty nice career.

 

[LawFitz]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

The notion that all players out of college will gain weight universally and within nearly the same rate is simply false. Not everyone has the body type to gain a lot of weight and some guys simply mature and fill out their bodies earlier in life. Recall the conversation on Donald, a guy I and many others feel has a pretty fully developed frame already. Sure, they will all likely gain weight as they get older, train harder/better but the rate will not be linear across all players. Better yet, it doesn't need to be. I'm very confident that a guy like Richardson can operate every well in the NFL by adding anywhere from 5-10 lbs to his body. His skill set is not one that requires him to overpower defenders and he's more a finesse player who will rely on his quickness, speed and hopeful refined route running. At the end of the day, technique matters more than size or strength. Just ask AJ Green who we were also told was far too skinny. Of course size and strength help.

I never said the first bolded sentence is true. Just that generally, 22 year old males are not fully developed physically. To what degree is obviously going to vary from person to person.

As for the 2nd bolded, I don't want to side track this Richardson thread, but with all due respect, I don't see how you or anyone else can take a hard stance that any player at this age is fully developed physically. Just makes zero sense to me. Many (most) of them are not, and your eye test of their butt size just doesn't sit well with me as a reliable barometer, sorry.

 

[Greggity]

I dont know much about Paul Richardson but my delemma seems to be do i get him, denarius moore or kenny britt in a startup? lol

 

[jurb26]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

The notion that all players out of college will gain weight universally and within nearly the same rate is simply false. Not everyone has the body type to gain a lot of weight and some guys simply mature and fill out their bodies earlier in life. Recall the conversation on Donald, a guy I and many others feel has a pretty fully developed frame already. Sure, they will all likely gain weight as they get older, train harder/better but the rate will not be linear across all players. Better yet, it doesn't need to be. I'm very confident that a guy like Richardson can operate every well in the NFL by adding anywhere from 5-10 lbs to his body. His skill set is not one that requires him to overpower defenders and he's more a finesse player who will rely on his quickness, speed and hopeful refined route running. At the end of the day, technique matters more than size or strength. Just ask AJ Green who we were also told was far too skinny. Of course size and strength help.

I never said the first bolded sentence is true. Just that generally, 22 year old males are not fully developed physically. To what degree is obviously going to vary from person to person.

As for the 2nd bolded, I don't want to side track this Richardson thread, but with all due respect, I don't see how you or anyone else can take a hard stance that any player at this age is fully developed physically. Just makes zero sense to me. Many (most) of them are not, and your eye test of their butt size just doesn't sit well with me as a reliable barometer, sorry.

I never claimed you said the first bold, EBF did. I also never said Donald was not going to gain anything. I said he's pretty fully developed but will still gain something. You picked an odd place to stop reading or using the bold.

I'm not a sure what you're arguing exactly. I said the weight gain would not be linear across all players. In other words it will vary. You said it will vary. Every player will likely be given a weight by his team that they think should be his target playing weight. What matters isn't the weight they gain, it's if it's functional. I don't think Donald should gain much more than 5 lbs or so. Richardson could stand to gain more, 5-10 IMO. In reality it's apple to oranges though. Donald gaining 5 lbs is less than 1% of his current body. Richardson gaining 5 would be close to 3%. A guy like Donald would have to gain nearly 9 lbs to match the ratio of Richardson gaining 5. You don't have to like my eye test, other scouts and write ups have said these same things. It's right in the draft profile for Donald on NFL.com. Ignore me or whoever else you want. I don't care. We all have to make our own determinations at the end of the day and there is certainly room for disagreement.

C. Portis is a prime example of how much weight can alter a player. He was a different runner in Den than he was in Wash. Mainly because he shifted his style and body to fit a power running game in Wash. He gained about 10 lbs and it totally changed who he was. He went from a slasher with unreal burst and acceleration, ripping off long runs at will, to basically a power back churning out yards and moving the pile. He still had decent burst because he always had such great foot speed but the weight was enough to close off creases that were otherwise open to him at his smaller size. Which Portis was the better Portis? I guess that's open to interpretation. Wash probably like the version they got while Den like the version they got.

 

[Khy]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

The notion that all players out of college will gain weight universally and within nearly the same rate is simply false. Not everyone has the body type to gain a lot of weight and some guys simply mature and fill out their bodies earlier in life. Recall the conversation on Donald, a guy I and many others feel has a pretty fully developed frame already. Sure, they will all likely gain weight as they get older, train harder/better but the rate will not be linear across all players. Better yet, it doesn't need to be. I'm very confident that a guy like Richardson can operate every well in the NFL by adding anywhere from 5-10 lbs to his body. His skill set is not one that requires him to overpower defenders and he's more a finesse player who will rely on his quickness, speed and hopeful refined route running. At the end of the day, technique matters more than size or strength. Just ask AJ Green who we were also told was far too skinny. Of course size and strength help.

I never said the first bolded sentence is true. Just that generally, 22 year old males are not fully developed physically. To what degree is obviously going to vary from person to person.

As for the 2nd bolded, I don't want to side track this Richardson thread, but with all due respect, I don't see how you or anyone else can take a hard stance that any player at this age is fully developed physically. Just makes zero sense to me. Many (most) of them are not, and your eye test of their butt size just doesn't sit well with me as a reliable barometer, sorry.

I never claimed you said the first bold, EBF did.I also never said Donald was not going to gain anything. I said he's pretty fully developed but will still gain something. You picked an odd place to stop reading or using the bold.

I'm not a sure what you're arguing exactly. I said the weight gain would not be linear across all players. In other words it will vary. You said it will vary. Every player will likely be given a weight by his team that they think should be his target playing weight. What matters isn't the weight they gain, it's if it's functional. I don't think Donald should gain much more than 5 lbs or so. Richardson could stand to gain more, 5-10 IMO. In reality it's apple to oranges though. Donald gaining 5 lbs is less than 1% of his current body. Richardson gaining 5 would be close to 3%. A guy like Donald would have to gain nearly 9 lbs to match the ratio of Richardson gaining 5. You don't have to like my eye test, other scouts and write ups have said these same things. It's right in the draft profile for Donald on NFL.com. Ignore me or whoever else you want. I don't care. We all have to make our own determinations at the end of the day and there is certainly room for disagreement.

C. Portis is a prime example of how much weight can alter a player. He was a different runner in Den than he was in Wash. Mainly because he shifted his style and body to fit a power running game in Wash. He gained about 10 lbs and it totally changed who he was. He went from a slasher with unreal burst and acceleration, ripping off long runs at will, to basically a power back churning out yards and moving the pile. He still had decent burst because he always had such great foot speed but the weight was enough to close off creases that were otherwise open to him at his smaller size. Which Portis was the better Portis? I guess that's open to interpretation. Wash probably like the version they got while Den like the version they got.

While I agree that Portis is a prime example of how weight can alter a player. I think it's clear and not open to any interpretation that Denver Portis was the better Portis. His first two seasons in Denver were record breaking for a new player. He had a rather massive drop off when leaving for Washington and never topped those first two seasons again in his entire career.

Then you have the flip side of it which would be Marshawn Lynch, who moved teams and dropped 10lbs instead of packing them on. And that propelled Lynch's game to a new level.

Hell, one could argue a lot of people are simply too big to be impactful.

As for Richardson, he's roughly the same size as DeSean Jackson, his BMI is about a point lower as he's two inches taller and the same weight. But he's so thin he could probably stand to add 10lbs and not loose a lot of his speed. That said, I've never agreed with size =/= durability in this league. Plenty of players who are the prototypical size are labeled with 'injury prone' and plenty who go against the mold are never injured. Richardson may be injury prone, he may not be, that remains to be seen. But his size has little bearing on it in my eyes.

A good example of this would be someone like McFadden who is built like a RB coaches wet dream but has never completely a full season in his career. Then on the flip side you have a guy like Jamaal Charles, who is built like a praying mantis but short of his ACL tear (which was a freak accident) he's been durable through most of his career. Same goes for CJ2K who is built in the same vein as Charles.

And these are RBs. A WR doesn't take nearly as much punishment. If you're good enough at the position as Richardson has potential to be you'll never take the big hits. See, Victor Cruz, who is able to consistently avoid the big hit and take the fall before getting his bell rung because he has good awareness.

 

[EBF]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

The notion that all players out of college will gain weight universally and within nearly the same rate is simply false. Not everyone has the body type to gain a lot of weight and some guys simply mature and fill out their bodies earlier in life. Recall the conversation on Donald, a guy I and many others feel has a pretty fully developed frame already. Sure, they will all likely gain weight as they get older, train harder/better but the rate will not be linear across all players. Better yet, it doesn't need to be. I'm very confident that a guy like Richardson can operate every well in the NFL by adding anywhere from 5-10 lbs to his body. His skill set is not one that requires him to overpower defenders and he's more a finesse player who will rely on his quickness, speed and hopeful refined route running. At the end of the day, technique matters more than size or strength. Just ask AJ Green who we were also told was far too skinny. Of course size and strength help.

I never said the first bolded sentence is true. Just that generally, 22 year old males are not fully developed physically. To what degree is obviously going to vary from person to person.

As for the 2nd bolded, I don't want to side track this Richardson thread, but with all due respect, I don't see how you or anyone else can take a hard stance that any player at this age is fully developed physically. Just makes zero sense to me. Many (most) of them are not, and your eye test of their butt size just doesn't sit well with me as a reliable barometer, sorry.

I never claimed you said the first bold, EBF did.I also never said Donald was not going to gain anything. I said he's pretty fully developed but will still gain something. You picked an odd place to stop reading or using the bold.

I'm not a sure what you're arguing exactly. I said the weight gain would not be linear across all players. In other words it will vary. You said it will vary. Every player will likely be given a weight by his team that they think should be his target playing weight. What matters isn't the weight they gain, it's if it's functional. I don't think Donald should gain much more than 5 lbs or so. Richardson could stand to gain more, 5-10 IMO. In reality it's apple to oranges though. Donald gaining 5 lbs is less than 1% of his current body. Richardson gaining 5 would be close to 3%. A guy like Donald would have to gain nearly 9 lbs to match the ratio of Richardson gaining 5. You don't have to like my eye test, other scouts and write ups have said these same things. It's right in the draft profile for Donald on NFL.com. Ignore me or whoever else you want. I don't care. We all have to make our own determinations at the end of the day and there is certainly room for disagreement.

C. Portis is a prime example of how much weight can alter a player. He was a different runner in Den than he was in Wash. Mainly because he shifted his style and body to fit a power running game in Wash. He gained about 10 lbs and it totally changed who he was. He went from a slasher with unreal burst and acceleration, ripping off long runs at will, to basically a power back churning out yards and moving the pile. He still had decent burst because he always had such great foot speed but the weight was enough to close off creases that were otherwise open to him at his smaller size. Which Portis was the better Portis? I guess that's open to interpretation. Wash probably like the version they got while Den like the version they got.

While I agree that Portis is a prime example of how weight can alter a player. I think it's clear and not open to any interpretation that Denver Portis was the better Portis. His first two seasons in Denver were record breaking for a new player. He had a rather massive drop off when leaving for Washington and never topped those first two seasons again in his entire career.

Then you have the flip side of it which would be Marshawn Lynch, who moved teams and dropped 10lbs instead of packing them on. And that propelled Lynch's game to a new level.

Hell, one could argue a lot of people are simply too big to be impactful.

As for Richardson, he's roughly the same size as DeSean Jackson, his BMI is about a point lower as he's two inches taller and the same weight. But he's so thin he could probably stand to add 10lbs and not loose a lot of his speed. That said, I've never agreed with size =/= durability in this league. Plenty of players who are the prototypical size are labeled with 'injury prone' and plenty who go against the mold are never injured. Richardson may be injury prone, he may not be, that remains to be seen. But his size has little bearing on it in my eyes.

A good example of this would be someone like McFadden who is built like a RB coaches wet dream but has never completely a full season in his career. Then on the flip side you have a guy like Jamaal Charles, who is built like a praying mantis but short of his ACL tear (which was a freak accident) he's been durable through most of his career. Same goes for CJ2K who is built in the same vein as Charles.

And these are RBs. A WR doesn't take nearly as much punishment. If you're good enough at the position as Richardson has potential to be you'll never take the big hits. See, Victor Cruz, who is able to consistently avoid the big hit and take the fall before getting his bell rung because he has good awareness.

McFadden has a horrible build, but I think the main difference between his durability and that of Charles/Johnson is that he lacks any elusiveness to protect himself from big shots. He's also taller, so he presents a bigger target. I think the two big variables in durability are how sturdy a player is against contact and how frequently (through playing style and usage) he'll be exposed to big hits. Guys like McFadden and Beanie who have bad frames and bad avoidance seem like the most easy "high injury risk" projections.

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Whatever it is, I don't think a guy like this is well-equipped to be a 130+ target WR. If he pans out, I suspect it will be as a feast-or-famine home run threat ala DeSean Jackson or what Titus Young might have become sans craziness. I think his role in the offense will mainly be running deep all day, as opposed to being the reliable go-to move-the-chains option when the game is on the line.

 

[Hooper31]

Besides Harvin and Rice, I don't think there's really any real competition so Richardson should get a shot this year especially given Harvin and Rice's constant injuries.

Baldwin down?

 

[menobrown]

Whatever it is, I don't think a guy like this is well-equipped to be a 130+ target WR. If he pans out, I suspect it will be as a feast-or-famine home run threat ala DeSean Jackson or what Titus Young might have become sans craziness.

Since Wilson has been the QB the high targets for a season by a WR or anyone on that team is 99 and that's before factoring in Harvin. Point being he's not on an offense which projects to that kind of volume.

So I agree he's not going to be a 130+ target guy, I just don't think it's because of his frame.

I don't buy the whole argument that his frame leads him more likely to get injured, especialy knee injuries and feel like people are being really selective with the players they are using as examples.

 

[EBF]

Whatever it is, I don't think a guy like this is well-equipped to be a 130+ target WR. If he pans out, I suspect it will be as a feast-or-famine home run threat ala DeSean Jackson or what Titus Young might have become sans craziness.

Since Wilson has been the QB the high targets for a season by a WR or anyone on that team is 99 and that's before factoring in Harvin. Point being he's not on an offense which projects to that kind of volume.

So I agree he's not going to be a 130+ target guy, I just don't think it's because of his frame.

I don't buy the whole argument that his frame leads him more likely to get injured, especialy knee injuries and feel like people are being really selective with the players they are using as examples.

I think the Seahawks would gladly feed targets to a true #1 WR if they ever had such a player. The 99 target number says more about their WR corps than their offensive philosophy, IMO. You can't try to use Doug Baldwin like he's Brandon Marshall. But I don't see Richardson as the guy to come in and change the equation. IMO he'll be an Andre Ellington in this WR group rather than an Eddie Lacy. A guy who makes a relatively high impact on a relatively low volume of opportunities, as opposed to a guy who carries the entire passing game on his back.

 

[menobrown]

Whatever it is, I don't think a guy like this is well-equipped to be a 130+ target WR. If he pans out, I suspect it will be as a feast-or-famine home run threat ala DeSean Jackson or what Titus Young might have become sans craziness.

Since Wilson has been the QB the high targets for a season by a WR or anyone on that team is 99 and that's before factoring in Harvin. Point being he's not on an offense which projects to that kind of volume.

So I agree he's not going to be a 130+ target guy, I just don't think it's because of his frame.

I don't buy the whole argument that his frame leads him more likely to get injured, especialy knee injuries and feel like people are being really selective with the players they are using as examples.

I think the Seahawks would gladly feed targets to a true #1 WR if they ever had such a player. The 99 target number says more about their WR corps than their offensive philosophy, IMO. You can't try to use Doug Baldwin like he's Brandon Marshall. But I don't see Richardson as the guy to come in and change the equation. IMO he'll be an Andre Ellington in this WR group rather than an Eddie Lacy. A guy who makes a relatively high impact on a relatively low volume of opportunities, as opposed to a guy who carries the entire passing game on his back.

To some extent we are in agreement but getting to the same point taking different roads. I do think the Seahawks can feed a true #1 target more than 99 a year, but only one and that guy is Harvin because the team just does not throw it that much.

Richardson's skill set is also more of that off a deep home run threat and those kind of players don't usuall amass huge target totals.

I just don't think him getting low targets is a function being thin.

 

[cstu]

Whatever it is, I don't think a guy like this is well-equipped to be a 130+ target WR. If he pans out, I suspect it will be as a feast-or-famine home run threat ala DeSean Jackson or what Titus Young might have become sans craziness.

Since Wilson has been the QB the high targets for a season by a WR or anyone on that team is 99 and that's before factoring in Harvin. Point being he's not on an offense which projects to that kind of volume.

So I agree he's not going to be a 130+ target guy, I just don't think it's because of his frame.

I don't buy the whole argument that his frame leads him more likely to get injured, especialy knee injuries and feel like people are being really selective with the players they are using as examples.

I think the Seahawks would gladly feed targets to a true #1 WR if they ever had such a player. The 99 target number says more about their WR corps than their offensive philosophy, IMO. You can't try to use Doug Baldwin like he's Brandon Marshall. But I don't see Richardson as the guy to come in and change the equation. IMO he'll be an Andre Ellington in this WR group rather than an Eddie Lacy. A guy who makes a relatively high impact on a relatively low volume of opportunities, as opposed to a guy who carries the entire passing game on his back.

No one is claiming he will. He's destined to be a high end WR2 at best, but that's still valuable in fantasy - especially when he can be drafted with a late 2nd/early 3rd pick.

When I was banging the drum for T.Y. Hilton not many people believed me that he would have a fantasy impact yet he had 139 targets and was #19 in PPR last year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Besides Harvin and Rice, I don't think there's really any real competition so Richardson should get a shot this year especially given Harvin and Rice's constant injuries.

Baldwin down?

I know the post you were responding to specified "this year," but re: Richardson's dynasty opportunity, is Baldwin a guy they're going to be able to keep long term? Seems like he's likely to get more $$$ elsewhere next year.

 

[Hooper31]

Besides Harvin and Rice, I don't think there's really any real competition so Richardson should get a shot this year especially given Harvin and Rice's constant injuries.

Baldwin down?

I know the post you were responding to specified "this year," but re: Richardson's dynasty opportunity, is Baldwin a guy they're going to be able to keep long term? Seems like he's likely to get more $$$ elsewhere next year.

Perhaps, but I don't think any team is going to pay big bucks for Baldwin. He's a role player, not a big money game breaker. That said, I think people are usually shocked to learn that Baldwin's ypc average has been higher than Tate's.

 

[StoneyBrook]

I think PRichardson takes a bit of forward thinking. Obviously right now the Seattle passing game is a dearth as far as fantasy production. Teams constantly evolve however, and as Lynch moves on and teams start mapping and scheming for Seattle's gameday blueprint they will eventually take the reigns off of Wilson and have a more balanced/modern NFL attack. Wilson is only getting better and I am more confident in him growing into a prolific passer than I am someone like Kaepernick. It was mentioned in a previous post that this team will be plundered in Free Agency. They are right in the middle of a sweet spot as far as production versus Dollar Store salaries. Sherman's deal shows where this train is headed and it's the unfortunate cyclical nature of the NFL. Yes, Richardson may have size limitations and he'll probably never get the volume of targets needed to be a true WR1 or strong WR2 workhorse. However, there's a decent chance the Seahawks develop their aerial attack to the point where I don't think DJax numbers are unreasonable within 3 years. 60 receptions, 1000+ yrds and 6-8 TD's sounds attainable and possibly the floor. Considering where people are getting him in rookie drafts, that's a very healthy weekly plug and play and a good dynasty asset to have in your portfolio. The Seahawks took him in round 2 before some other highly regarded WR's. He'll at least get his shot.

 

[Khy]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Besides Harvin and Rice, I don't think there's really any real competition so Richardson should get a shot this year especially given Harvin and Rice's constant injuries.

Baldwin down?

I know the post you were responding to specified "this year," but re: Richardson's dynasty opportunity, is Baldwin a guy they're going to be able to keep long term? Seems like he's likely to get more $$$ elsewhere next year.

Perhaps, but I don't think any team is going to pay big bucks for Baldwin. He's a role player, not a big money game breaker. That said, I think people are usually shocked to learn that Baldwin's ypc average has been higher than Tate's.

Pretty much agree -- but I also think Baldwin is pretty under rated as an NFL WR, particularly in FF circles. Dude can play, and can be a solid NFL WR2 -- no one is going to break the bank, but would the 'Hawks be able to match a $4 - $5 million / year type deal? Baldwin is certainly in the conversation with Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, and Andre Roberts as a WR, or better IMO.

 

[cstu]

Besides Harvin and Rice, I don't think there's really any real competition so Richardson should get a shot this year especially given Harvin and Rice's constant injuries.

Baldwin down?

I know the post you were responding to specified "this year," but re: Richardson's dynasty opportunity, is Baldwin a guy they're going to be able to keep long term? Seems like he's likely to get more $$$ elsewhere next year.

Perhaps, but I don't think any team is going to pay big bucks for Baldwin. He's a role player, not a big money game breaker. That said, I think people are usually shocked to learn that Baldwin's ypc average has been higher than Tate's.

Pretty much agree -- but I also think Baldwin is pretty under rated as an NFL WR, particularly in FF circles. Dude can play, and can be a solid NFL WR2 -- no one is going to break the bank, but would the 'Hawks be able to match a $4 - $5 million / year type deal? Baldwin is certainly in the conversation with Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, and Andre Roberts as a WR, or better IMO.

The Seahawks have a lot of tough decisions to make financially and I don't expect Baldwin back even at his current $2.2M salary.

 

[cdubz]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

So if you play with a first ballot HOF QB or a guy who is likely to be in the HOF, then you can be a HOF WR. Have we already anointed Wilson as such?

 

[cstu]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

So if you play with a first ballot HOF QB or a guy who is likely to be in the HOF, then you can be a HOF WR. Have we already anointed Wilson as such?

We've already anointed Luck a HOF'er so why not?

 

[Khy]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

So if you play with a first ballot HOF QB or a guy who is likely to be in the HOF, then you can be a HOF WR. Have we already anointed Wilson as such?

That isn't the point... the point is that stating a WR is too small when there are Hall of Fame WRs who are the same frame style.

That said, if you really want to compare the QBs above to Wilson. Sure, I'll bite. Here's each of their first 32 games:

Russell Wilson: 509/800 - 63.6% Completions - 6475 yards - 8.1 YPA - 52 TDs - 19 INTs - 100.6 QBR

Peyton Manning: 657/1108 - 59.3% Completions - 7874 yards - 7.1 YPA - 52 TDs - 43 INTs - 80.95 QBR

Kurt Warner: 560/846 - 66.2% completions - 7782 yards - 9.2 YPA - 62 TDs - 31 INTs - 103.75 QBR

Andrew Luck: 682/1197 - 57.0% Completions - 8196 yards - 6.8 YPA - 46 TDs - 27 INTs - 81.5 QBR

So yeah... Warner was clearly better than Peyton and Wilson after his first 32 games but Warner was also 30 years old at the conclusion of his 32nd game. Unlike Peyton and Wilson whom were 24.

No, I'm not appointing Wilson a future HoF QB. But the numbers aren't that far away.

EDIT: Read CTSU post up top regarding Luck, so lets throw him into the mix as well. Wilson beats Luck in every single statistic except overall yardage. Which isn't surprising considering he threw the ball almost 300 times more in his 2 years.

 

[Hooper31]

The Seahawks have a lot of tough decisions to make financially and I don't expect Baldwin back even at his current $2.2M salary.

This is true, but I don't think the cap will be much of an issue. The cap will be escalating quite a bit over the next two years (potentially well over an additional $20 million). Getting Sherman and Thomas signed now was huge. I don't think teams will have problems staying under the cap in the next three years. I think teams are going to be able to keep their players if they want. After that.... Hard to say.

EDIT: Found an article at PFT that says it could jump to $160 million in 2016.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/07/cap-could-hit-160-million-in-2016/

 

[cdubz]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

So if you play with a first ballot HOF QB or a guy who is likely to be in the HOF, then you can be a HOF WR. Have we already anointed Wilson as such?

That isn't the point... the point is that stating a WR is too small when there are Hall of Fame WRs who are the same frame style.

That said, if you really want to compare the QBs above to Wilson. Sure, I'll bite. Here's each of their first 32 games:

Russell Wilson: 509/800 - 63.6% Completions - 6475 yards - 8.1 YPA - 52 TDs - 19 INTs - 100.6 QBR

Peyton Manning: 657/1108 - 59.3% Completions - 7874 yards - 7.1 YPA - 52 TDs - 43 INTs - 80.95 QBR

Kurt Warner: 560/846 - 66.2% completions - 7782 yards - 9.2 YPA - 62 TDs - 31 INTs - 103.75 QBR

Andrew Luck: 682/1197 - 57.0% Completions - 8196 yards - 6.8 YPA - 46 TDs - 27 INTs - 81.5 QBR

So yeah... Warner was clearly better than Peyton and Wilson after his first 32 games but Warner was also 30 years old at the conclusion of his 32nd game. Unlike Peyton and Wilson whom were 24.

No, I'm not appointing Wilson a future HoF QB. But the numbers aren't that far away.

EDIT: Read CTSU post up top regarding Luck, so lets throw him into the mix as well. Wilson beats Luck in every single statistic except overall yardage. Which isn't surprising considering he threw the ball almost 300 times more in his 2 years.

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

 

[EBF]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

NFL.com has Harrison as 6'0" 185. If that's accurate, he was a full ten pounds heavier than Richardson at the same height.

This guy is a pretty unique proposition. Almost off-the-charts small. He also has a torn ACL on his resume already.

I actually think he may be a decent value in rookie drafts (although his ADP seems to be rising as of late) and may work out okay for the Seahawks. All the same, I don't see him ever being a great volume receiver and he's going to have to catch a lot of bombs to become startable in a typical FF league.

 

[cstu]

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

 

[cstu]

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Marvin Harrison - had a BMI of 23.7 (6' 175lbs), short of his 2008 season when he was on his way out of the league anyway he had only miss I think 4 games the rest of his career?

Issac Bruce - had a BMI of 25.5 (6' 188lbs), he missed more than Harrison, but still in his 14 year career had 10 of them where he completed a full 16 games.

Players do exist in this mold that ended up being HoF players. Hell, Harrison is the exact same size as Richardson. It's all about putting him in the right positions on the field to succeed.

NFL.com has Harrison as 6'0" 185. If that's accurate, he was a full ten pounds heavier than Richardson at the same height.

This guy is a pretty unique proposition. Almost off-the-charts small. He also has a torn ACL on his resume already.

I actually think he may be a decent value in rookie drafts (although his ADP seems to be rising as of late) and may work out okay for the Seahawks. All the same, I don't see him ever being a great volume receiver and he's going to have to catch a lot of bombs to become startable in a typical FF league.

I got this from an article comparing Jennings to Harrison:

"Marvin's definitely a lot thinner than Greg," Jimmy Robinson, who coached him in 1996 and '97, his first two seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, said. "When he got to camp, Marvin was probably 176. He's a very thin-waisted guy. Small legs. He's not built like Greg."

That year at the combine, Harrison measured 5 feet 11 7/8 inches, weighed 181 pounds and scored 12 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test. After declining to work out, he ran 40 yards that spring in 4.37 seconds.

 

[cdubz]

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

So maybe this is the difference between looking at overall ranks vs. positional ranks. DLF consensus (used since OP mentioned and seems like a decent proxy) has Latimer as the 11th WR at 14th overall. Richardson is the 12th WR at 28th overall. So if no one is going to defend Richardson over Moncrief or Latimer, they have it nailed from a WR ranking basis. And to preempt the Moncief hate, yes they have him high - but based on ceiling I think that is the higher EV play even if lower probability of being in the league in 5 years.

The issue I guess is that some see Richardson as close to that tier and don't think the RBs going ahead of him should be going there. They have 9 RBs ahead of him, and other than Seastrunk and Storm Johnson - I think all of them are justifiably higher. Given his projected ceiling, I would rather have a RB that I know what I have in 1-2 years as opposed to a mediocre WR that might take 3 years to pan out. They also have the top 3 QBs ahead as well, which I don't necessarily agree with.

In my personal ranks, I have him #27. (12 teams, cutdown to 14 position players in offseason)

Where do other people have him ranked that #29 is considered missing the boat on him? Other than Waldman that is.

 

[cloppbeast]

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

I would take Robinson before Latimer. I feel Latimer is overrated as a player; ditto on his landing spot.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think it's highly suspect to assume that a 22 year old is fully mature physically.

Okay, but wouldn't that also apply to all of the DL, LB, and DB in this draft class? If they're all going to keep growing and improving then it stands to reason that whatever gains a guy like Richardson will make will be offset by gains that the other players will make. Fact is, he is acutely undersized compared to the typical NFL WR prospect at the same stage of development. Maybe even more so considering that he's not a three year college player. I think it's more likely that he'll always be really skinny relative to his peers than that he's suddenly going to bulk up when he gets to the NFL. In all likelihood, he is who he is. Either you think that guy will be successful or you don't. But don't operate under the assumption that he's going to become a different guy altogether. Unlikely IMO.

Yes, but I think it's more critical for Richardson to gain 15 pounds than it is for any of his peers.

The notion that all players out of college will gain weight universally and within nearly the same rate is simply false. Not everyone has the body type to gain a lot of weight and some guys simply mature and fill out their bodies earlier in life. Recall the conversation on Donald, a guy I and many others feel has a pretty fully developed frame already. Sure, they will all likely gain weight as they get older, train harder/better but the rate will not be linear across all players. Better yet, it doesn't need to be. I'm very confident that a guy like Richardson can operate every well in the NFL by adding anywhere from 5-10 lbs to his body. His skill set is not one that requires him to overpower defenders and he's more a finesse player who will rely on his quickness, speed and hopeful refined route running. At the end of the day, technique matters more than size or strength. Just ask AJ Green who we were also told was far too skinny. Of course size and strength help.

I never said the first bolded sentence is true. Just that generally, 22 year old males are not fully developed physically. To what degree is obviously going to vary from person to person.

As for the 2nd bolded, I don't want to side track this Richardson thread, but with all due respect, I don't see how you or anyone else can take a hard stance that any player at this age is fully developed physically. Just makes zero sense to me. Many (most) of them are not, and your eye test of their butt size just doesn't sit well with me as a reliable barometer, sorry.

I never claimed you said the first bold, EBF did.I also never said Donald was not going to gain anything. I said he's pretty fully developed but will still gain something. You picked an odd place to stop reading or using the bold.

I'm not a sure what you're arguing exactly. I said the weight gain would not be linear across all players. In other words it will vary. You said it will vary. Every player will likely be given a weight by his team that they think should be his target playing weight. What matters isn't the weight they gain, it's if it's functional. I don't think Donald should gain much more than 5 lbs or so. Richardson could stand to gain more, 5-10 IMO. In reality it's apple to oranges though. Donald gaining 5 lbs is less than 1% of his current body. Richardson gaining 5 would be close to 3%. A guy like Donald would have to gain nearly 9 lbs to match the ratio of Richardson gaining 5. You don't have to like my eye test, other scouts and write ups have said these same things. It's right in the draft profile for Donald on NFL.com. Ignore me or whoever else you want. I don't care. We all have to make our own determinations at the end of the day and there is certainly room for disagreement.

C. Portis is a prime example of how much weight can alter a player. He was a different runner in Den than he was in Wash. Mainly because he shifted his style and body to fit a power running game in Wash. He gained about 10 lbs and it totally changed who he was. He went from a slasher with unreal burst and acceleration, ripping off long runs at will, to basically a power back churning out yards and moving the pile. He still had decent burst because he always had such great foot speed but the weight was enough to close off creases that were otherwise open to him at his smaller size. Which Portis was the better Portis? I guess that's open to interpretation. Wash probably like the version they got while Den like the version they got.

While I agree that Portis is a prime example of how weight can alter a player. I think it's clear and not open to any interpretation that Denver Portis was the better Portis. His first two seasons in Denver were record breaking for a new player. He had a rather massive drop off when leaving for Washington and never topped those first two seasons again in his entire career.

Then you have the flip side of it which would be Marshawn Lynch, who moved teams and dropped 10lbs instead of packing them on. And that propelled Lynch's game to a new level.

Hell, one could argue a lot of people are simply too big to be impactful.

As for Richardson, he's roughly the same size as DeSean Jackson, his BMI is about a point lower as he's two inches taller and the same weight. But he's so thin he could probably stand to add 10lbs and not loose a lot of his speed. That said, I've never agreed with size =/= durability in this league. Plenty of players who are the prototypical size are labeled with 'injury prone' and plenty who go against the mold are never injured. Richardson may be injury prone, he may not be, that remains to be seen. But his size has little bearing on it in my eyes.

A good example of this would be someone like McFadden who is built like a RB coaches wet dream but has never completely a full season in his career. Then on the flip side you have a guy like Jamaal Charles, who is built like a praying mantis but short of his ACL tear (which was a freak accident) he's been durable through most of his career. Same goes for CJ2K who is built in the same vein as Charles.

And these are RBs. A WR doesn't take nearly as much punishment. If you're good enough at the position as Richardson has potential to be you'll never take the big hits. See, Victor Cruz, who is able to consistently avoid the big hit and take the fall before getting his bell rung because he has good awareness.

McFadden has a horrible build, but I think the main difference between his durability and that of Charles/Johnson is that he lacks any elusiveness to protect himself from big shots. He's also taller, so he presents a bigger target. I think the two big variables in durability are how sturdy a player is against contact and how frequently (through playing style and usage) he'll be exposed to big hits. Guys like McFadden and Beanie who have bad frames and bad avoidance seem like the most easy "high injury risk" projections.

WRs don't take as many hits and I highly doubt the Seahawks will be sending Richardson over the middle very often, so the durability risk probably isn't huge. However, the track record of string bean WRs like Rice, Danario, and Hunter is a bit troubling. DeSean Jackson has been pretty healthy, but those others have had some issues. Lots of knee injuries with sub 26.0 BMI WRs. It may be less about contact and more about how their bodies cope with the constant plant-and-drive strain over years of games and practices.

Whatever it is, I don't think a guy like this is well-equipped to be a 130+ target WR. If he pans out, I suspect it will be as a feast-or-famine home run threat ala DeSean Jackson or what Titus Young might have become sans craziness. I think his role in the offense will mainly be running deep all day, as opposed to being the reliable go-to move-the-chains option when the game is on the line.

That's twice you've made that assertion in this thread. Are there any studies to back that up? Studies that conclusively show that there is a correlation between sub 26.0 BMI athletes and knee issues?

There is a school of thought that added muscle does not create stronger connective tissues and therefore simply creates more weight for the joint to redirect. We all know what added weight can do to joints. Do I just need to point out a handful of higher BMI guys that tore their ACL's to prove that assertion?

So rather than simply toss out selectively recalled examples that reinforce our preconceived beliefs and ignore all the ones that don't, because there are a ton of guys with BMI's over 26.0 that have knee issues, why don't we see if there is actually proof of it.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

So maybe this is the difference between looking at overall ranks vs. positional ranks. DLF consensus (used since OP mentioned and seems like a decent proxy) has Latimer as the 11th WR at 14th overall. Richardson is the 12th WR at 28th overall. So if no one is going to defend Richardson over Moncrief or Latimer, they have it nailed from a WR ranking basis. And to preempt the Moncief hate, yes they have him high - but based on ceiling I think that is the higher EV play even if lower probability of being in the league in 5 years.

The issue I guess is that some see Richardson as close to that tier and don't think the RBs going ahead of him should be going there. They have 9 RBs ahead of him, and other than Seastrunk and Storm Johnson - I think all of them are justifiably higher. Given his projected ceiling, I would rather have a RB that I know what I have in 1-2 years as opposed to a mediocre WR that might take 3 years to pan out. They also have the top 3 QBs ahead as well, which I don't necessarily agree with.

In my personal ranks, I have him #27. (12 teams, cutdown to 14 position players in offseason)

Where do other people have him ranked that #29 is considered missing the boat on him? Other than Waldman that is.

That bolded part is a bit off in my opinion. Richardson is not mediocre. He's skinny which give the perception that he's smallish which then gets interpreted as soft or finesse. He's fluid, fast, has good hands, runs good routes for a rookie but he also has a my ball mentality (which he doesn't often need to do because he separates fairly easily) and despite his thin frame, he's pretty successful at it.

This really is Russell Wilson 2.0. The tape is there. He just has a ding in terms of his body not quite looking like the protoype just like Wilson did, but he's actually as tall as Watkins and Adams and is taller than Beckham, Lee and Cooks.

I get the BMI concerns. But don't let that cause you overlook the considerable talent that is there. Imagine if you could count on DeSean to go over the middle and fight for a jump ball. That's a versatility that Richardson has which could actually open up more route options (and fantasy scoring opportunities) for him. His body may or may not hold up. But he seems to have the rest of the package including the desire. For what it costs to acquire him, I see a bargain.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/seahawks/2014/05/09/paul-richardson-it-hit-me-but-it-hasnt-hit-me-im-just-overwhelmed-right-now-in-a-good-way/

On what is he weighing right now: “During college I played anywhere from 158 to 161. I weigh 183 right now and I’m a lot heavier than I was when I played my last game November 30.”

On what has he done to put on his weight: “You have a better diet. You don’t eat much at my school. We didn’t eat a whole lot, but I’m eating a lot now, I’m eating a lot healthier. My strength coach is on me all of the time. He’s making sure I’m eating properly, and I’m doing it without creatine or anything like that. It’s all natural, so it’s all weights and food.”

On how does he feel the extra weight has affected his speed: “I don’t think it has really affected my speed because I have been getting stronger as well as with gaining weight. I didn’t run as well as I would’ve liked to at the combine with the four days off because I was so used to training every day, every day and then you don’t get that same training. Doing starts in the hallway isn’t the same as being on the field so I didn’t have very good carryover, but I’m proud of what I was able to do and I’m proud of my training. I did run a 4.33 I wanted it to be a lot faster.”

On if he was told that he needed to gain weight to play in the NFL: “I definitely realized that I needed to gain weight from my coaches in college and then in my training. Once I started gaining weight I noticed how much more confident I was becoming with gaining weight and how comfortable I was with my body. It’s been fluid for me.”

On if there are any concerns at all about his durability in the NFL: “I don’t have any concerns. I never had any issues with an injury because of lack of size or anything. The one thing that I did have was a freak accident. I’m looking forward to having a healthy and durable career in the NFL.”

I have added Richardson in 2 of the 3 dynasty drafts I have been in so far, at 3.04 and 3.07. If I can get a WR drafted 45th in the real NFL draft with a rookie pick around 30, that is decent arbitrage even with the possible negatives like a conservative offense, small frame, etc. Richardson goes much later than WRs drafted after him and in the same range as 6th round to UDFA garbage RBs that will be lucky to make their NFL roster, much less start. I will take a 35% chance at the next TY Hilton/D Jax over a 2% chance at the next Arian Foster. (those odds are a pure guesstimate)

 

[cdubz]

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

So maybe this is the difference between looking at overall ranks vs. positional ranks. DLF consensus (used since OP mentioned and seems like a decent proxy) has Latimer as the 11th WR at 14th overall. Richardson is the 12th WR at 28th overall. So if no one is going to defend Richardson over Moncrief or Latimer, they have it nailed from a WR ranking basis. And to preempt the Moncief hate, yes they have him high - but based on ceiling I think that is the higher EV play even if lower probability of being in the league in 5 years.

The issue I guess is that some see Richardson as close to that tier and don't think the RBs going ahead of him should be going there. They have 9 RBs ahead of him, and other than Seastrunk and Storm Johnson - I think all of them are justifiably higher. Given his projected ceiling, I would rather have a RB that I know what I have in 1-2 years as opposed to a mediocre WR that might take 3 years to pan out. They also have the top 3 QBs ahead as well, which I don't necessarily agree with.

In my personal ranks, I have him #27. (12 teams, cutdown to 14 position players in offseason)

Where do other people have him ranked that #29 is considered missing the boat on him? Other than Waldman that is.

That bolded part is a bit off in my opinion. Richardson is not mediocre. He's skinny which give the perception that he's smallish which then gets interpreted as soft or finesse. He's fluid, fast, has good hands, runs good routes for a rookie but he also has a my ball mentality (which he doesn't often need to do because he separates fairly easily) and despite his thin frame, he's pretty successful at it.

This really is Russell Wilson 2.0. The tape is there. He just has a ding in terms of his body not quite looking like the protoype just like Wilson did, but he's actually as tall as Watkins and Adams and is taller than Beckham, Lee and Cooks.

I get the BMI concerns. But don't let that cause you overlook the considerable talent that is there. Imagine if you could count on DeSean to go over the middle and fight for a jump ball. That's a versatility that Richardson has which could actually open up more route options (and fantasy scoring opportunities) for him. His body may or may not hold up. But he seems to have the rest of the package including the desire. For what it costs to acquire him, I see a bargain.

I am sympathetic to the idea that I am underrating him. If you don't mind sharing, where are you ranking him on your overall rookie board?

 

[cloppbeast]

I am sympathetic to the idea that I am underrating him. If you don't mind sharing, where are you ranking him on your overall rookie board?

If it matters, I have him ranked 15th.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

So maybe this is the difference between looking at overall ranks vs. positional ranks. DLF consensus (used since OP mentioned and seems like a decent proxy) has Latimer as the 11th WR at 14th overall. Richardson is the 12th WR at 28th overall. So if no one is going to defend Richardson over Moncrief or Latimer, they have it nailed from a WR ranking basis. And to preempt the Moncief hate, yes they have him high - but based on ceiling I think that is the higher EV play even if lower probability of being in the league in 5 years.

The issue I guess is that some see Richardson as close to that tier and don't think the RBs going ahead of him should be going there. They have 9 RBs ahead of him, and other than Seastrunk and Storm Johnson - I think all of them are justifiably higher. Given his projected ceiling, I would rather have a RB that I know what I have in 1-2 years as opposed to a mediocre WR that might take 3 years to pan out. They also have the top 3 QBs ahead as well, which I don't necessarily agree with.

In my personal ranks, I have him #27. (12 teams, cutdown to 14 position players in offseason)

Where do other people have him ranked that #29 is considered missing the boat on him? Other than Waldman that is.

That bolded part is a bit off in my opinion. Richardson is not mediocre. He's skinny which give the perception that he's smallish which then gets interpreted as soft or finesse. He's fluid, fast, has good hands, runs good routes for a rookie but he also has a my ball mentality (which he doesn't often need to do because he separates fairly easily) and despite his thin frame, he's pretty successful at it.

This really is Russell Wilson 2.0. The tape is there. He just has a ding in terms of his body not quite looking like the protoype just like Wilson did, but he's actually as tall as Watkins and Adams and is taller than Beckham, Lee and Cooks.

I get the BMI concerns. But don't let that cause you overlook the considerable talent that is there. Imagine if you could count on DeSean to go over the middle and fight for a jump ball. That's a versatility that Richardson has which could actually open up more route options (and fantasy scoring opportunities) for him. His body may or may not hold up. But he seems to have the rest of the package including the desire. For what it costs to acquire him, I see a bargain.

I am sympathetic to the idea that I am underrating him. If you don't mind sharing, where are you ranking him on your overall rookie board?

I haven't really done a combined draft format ranking because I play in a contract/auction league and tend to think of acquiring multiple players in an auction format.

I had them roughly in this order: Evans, Watkins, Lattimer, Beckham, Richardson. I wasn't too high on Cooks and Matthews so I was willing to let others buy them up and wait for the Montcrief's and Bryant's of the draft.

 

[cdubz]

Interestingly, it looks like the OP has somewhat answered the thread title with an implicit no. In ZWK's dynasty rankings thread he has Richardson at #61 WR and Josh Huff at #62. For comparison, he has Latimer at #39 and Moncrief at #43. That gap would explain the gap in rookie rankings/draft position IMO.

ETA: Of course that dynasty ranking could still be off, etc.

 

[Khy]

I think there is a chance he is NFL relevant and borderline FF relevant, I just think that size needs to play a factor in our overall valuation.

Bringing this back to NFL draft position, he went ahead of Davante Adams, Cody Lattimer, and Allen Robinson.

Is anyone willing to to take him in a fantasy draft ahead of all of those 3? How about 2 of those 3?

I think <1% of people would take him over all 3 and few would take him over 2 of the 3, and I think that is rational based on his size and overall resume.

Of course not, but he's not going in their range (late 1st to early 2nd). The highest I've seen Richardson go is #19 and the lowest is #33. He's generally going #26-28.

So maybe this is the difference between looking at overall ranks vs. positional ranks. DLF consensus (used since OP mentioned and seems like a decent proxy) has Latimer as the 11th WR at 14th overall. Richardson is the 12th WR at 28th overall. So if no one is going to defend Richardson over Moncrief or Latimer, they have it nailed from a WR ranking basis. And to preempt the Moncief hate, yes they have him high - but based on ceiling I think that is the higher EV play even if lower probability of being in the league in 5 years.

The issue I guess is that some see Richardson as close to that tier and don't think the RBs going ahead of him should be going there. They have 9 RBs ahead of him, and other than Seastrunk and Storm Johnson - I think all of them are justifiably higher. Given his projected ceiling, I would rather have a RB that I know what I have in 1-2 years as opposed to a mediocre WR that might take 3 years to pan out. They also have the top 3 QBs ahead as well, which I don't necessarily agree with.

In my personal ranks, I have him #27. (12 teams, cutdown to 14 position players in offseason)

Where do other people have him ranked that #29 is considered missing the boat on him? Other than Waldman that is.

That bolded part is a bit off in my opinion. Richardson is not mediocre. He's skinny which give the perception that he's smallish which then gets interpreted as soft or finesse. He's fluid, fast, has good hands, runs good routes for a rookie but he also has a my ball mentality (which he doesn't often need to do because he separates fairly easily) and despite his thin frame, he's pretty successful at it.

This really is Russell Wilson 2.0. The tape is there. He just has a ding in terms of his body not quite looking like the protoype just like Wilson did, but he's actually as tall as Watkins and Adams and is taller than Beckham, Lee and Cooks.

I get the BMI concerns. But don't let that cause you overlook the considerable talent that is there. Imagine if you could count on DeSean to go over the middle and fight for a jump ball. That's a versatility that Richardson has which could actually open up more route options (and fantasy scoring opportunities) for him. His body may or may not hold up. But he seems to have the rest of the package including the desire. For what it costs to acquire him, I see a bargain.

I am sympathetic to the idea that I am underrating him. If you don't mind sharing, where are you ranking him on your overall rookie board?

I haven't really done a combined draft format ranking because I play in a contract/auction league and tend to think of acquiring multiple players in an auction format.

I had them roughly in this order: Evans, Watkins, Lattimer, Beckham, Richardson. I wasn't too high on Cooks and Matthews so I was willing to let others buy them up and wait for the Montcrief's and Bryant's of the draft.

Honestly, I wasn't a huge fan of Richardson at first. But the more I read up about the kid and the more I watch his college tape. I'm convinced. Whatever "it" is, he has it. I don't really give 2 flying f's about his size. As Leroy posted above, he's now up to an operating weight of 183 as of May 9th. So his combine weight was really far down cause, as he says... he didn't really have the time or money to eat much at school. I think you'll be shocked in his appearance changes. When he comes out during pre-season and when you look at him vs his college tape, I think he'll look much bigger. It's really mind blowing what pro level trainers and dieticians can do for a guys size.

I do see a lot of Harrison-esq stuff in his game. Could he be too small, get injured to much and fade into nothingness? Sure. ON the flip side, it's also possible we're seeing the next great QB/WR duo forming and Richardson turns into a perennial 80+ yard reception guy for the next 10 years.

 

[Xue]

My comparison for Richardson is a faster Mario Manningham.

 

[Khy]

My comparison for Richardson is a faster Mario Manningham.

I guess I can kind of see that? But Richardson destroys Manningham on measurables. And honestly, if Manningham had his skillsets w/ Richardson's measurables he'd probably have been a dominant WR in this league. Richardson is a whole 0.2sec faster on the 40, that's not a small deal, that's massive.

Manningham ran a 4.59 40, 117" broad, 32" vert

Richardson had a 4.4 40, 124" broad and a 38" vert