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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Paul Richardson (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
Xue
Footballguy
It could, but if the resulting production is the same it's negligible in my eyes. Manningham had a higher career college YPR than Richardson. He also averaged 14.5 in his Giants days. That's pretty impressive for someone who ran a 4.59 at the Combine. But did run a 4.42 at his Pro Day: http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=57291&draftyear=2008&genpos=WR
Khy
Footballguy
Eh, pro days can never be counted on and rarely are for 40 times.
As ctsu said though, the difference between 4.4 and even 4.45 is pretty large. The difference between 4.4 and 4.59 is like the difference between Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning (obviously exaggerating) but you get my point.
That difference in speed can be the difference between a average WR and an elite one.
Khy
Footballguy
Hooper31
Footballguy
For anyone that really wants to know more about the Seattle WR situation.
Article from Danny Kelly on Seattle and the 3-WR set.
Link to Carroll quote in the TNT stating specifically that Baldwin will be playing the split end position after signing his extension.
My opinion: I think Richardson will have a hard time seeing the field this year except on occasional situations. I doubt he's getting many targets ahead of Harvin, Baldwin, Rice, and Kearse. I won't be shocked to see a few long balls go his way, but he probably has little/no chance of being fantasy relevant.
Big question: Would Seattle choose to keep 6 WRs? Or will they cut a fourth round pick (Norwood) for the second year in a row? Last year it was not surprising. We talked about it a lot. The roster was so deep that it was going to be hard for draft picks to make the team.
Article from Danny Kelly on Seattle and the 3-WR set.
Link to Carroll quote in the TNT stating specifically that Baldwin will be playing the split end position after signing his extension.
Read more here: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2014/05/29/baldwin-nothing-changes-for-me/#storylink=cpy
My opinion: I think Richardson will have a hard time seeing the field this year except on occasional situations. I doubt he's getting many targets ahead of Harvin, Baldwin, Rice, and Kearse. I won't be shocked to see a few long balls go his way, but he probably has little/no chance of being fantasy relevant.
Big question: Would Seattle choose to keep 6 WRs? Or will they cut a fourth round pick (Norwood) for the second year in a row? Last year it was not surprising. We talked about it a lot. The roster was so deep that it was going to be hard for draft picks to make the team.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Im going to say he gets 20-30 receptions and averages around 18-20 yards per reception his first year.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I'm getting him at the turn of the 3rd into the 4th in every draft. Whether or not the pundits are correct to label him lower due to his situation it's hard for me to say no to a high 2nd round pick from a franchise who has had a recent string of success in the drafts. Maybe nothing but flahses will happen this year but Rice is on a one year prove it, Harvin is in and out of the trainers room and Baldwin is unspectacular and will always be seen as better served as a jack of all trades reserve, Kearse also doesn't scare me if this guy lives up to his draft billing.
cstu
Footballguy
I didn't draft him expecting anything this year. However, I was disappointed by Baldwin's extension since it means he'll be there for at least the next two years. Now it looks like a battle between Kearse and Richardson. Kearse is a RFA so he'll likely be brought back and Richardson will have to beat him out to play.
Regarding Norwood, would it be shocking if they cut Rice (only $150k guaranteed) to keep him?
Hooper31
Footballguy
I think that's going to be one of the closest camp battles to watch. Keep in mind that they are going to keep the player that will help the team win. If I've learned anything watching Carroll/Schneider operate they don't plan for the future. It reminds me of a quote from Marv Levy. Building for the future is an incomplete sentence. Its building for the future coach.
Faust
MVP
I REALLY like Richardson! I like his speed, his production when healthy, and his big play ability.
As much as I love/like him - I cannot bring myself to draft him above Allen Robinson or Donte Moncreif in my rookie draft at pick 25 in a few weeks.... We did the first 2 rounds a couple of weeks back.
What WR of this 3 would you take?
As much as I love/like him - I cannot bring myself to draft him above Allen Robinson or Donte Moncreif in my rookie draft at pick 25 in a few weeks.... We did the first 2 rounds a couple of weeks back.
What WR of this 3 would you take?
BrainDeadGenius
Footballguy
I get Richardson will be buried on the depth chart initially, but since when have Harvin or Rice been reliable for 16 games?? I know there's a lot of Baldwin hype (myself included -- mainly due to the injuries I just alluded to), but he was an undrafted FA.
I'm not saying I expect much out of Richardson initially, but based on his ADP, he's a big buy low in my book with a huge upside in the short-term and long-term.
I'm not saying I expect much out of Richardson initially, but based on his ADP, he's a big buy low in my book with a huge upside in the short-term and long-term.
BrainDeadGenius
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd rank them; Robinson, Richardson, Moncrief.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Manningham's hands are so bad they actually caused him to concus himself once. No lie.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
The one draft I had this option I traded down for the rest of someone's entire draft. He took Robinson, I took Bryant, Landry, and Richardson in the third not including what I got later. In other words I like the odds of trading out of the late 2nd into the 3rd. Not sure how drafts are going now but I pulled Richardson at 3.09, 3.12 (ppr), 3.08, 3.12, 3.05 (got antsy in this one, heavy ppr got Landry at 3.09 Richardson might have fallen there but this thread had also come into existence). Not sure if he's Marvin Harrison or Todd Pinkston but I also remember Pinkston being soft which Richardson does not shy away from contact in his highlights. He looks like a taller Desean Jackson to me.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Most of this video is about a fight at camp yesterday, but includes a sweet TD catch by Richardson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df5qKTTpnxE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df5qKTTpnxE
CapnJB
Footballguy
Khy
Footballguy
Wish the camera was focused on his route instead of the ball... I'd love to be able to see if he just completely beat them out or if they were just being lazy and jogging for no reason.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
That is one thing that does not get mentioned much, but PC and Schneider try to draft players that know they can handle going against this defense every practice.steveski said:
If a WR like Richardson is not very good against press coverage, you'll be sure he is learning a lot in practices going against that secondary.
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah that's true.
My big thing with Richardson, is the more and more tape I watch, the more and more I'm completely floored by how amazing his abilities at the point of attack. The amount of plays where he stops on a dime and posts up for a one handed catch, or completely lays out for a catch etc. floor me. And his hands look like they're made of super glue. I mean, the only times I see him drop a catch still leave me sitting there going "Man, what a God awful pass that was, it's amazing he almost managed to come down with that ball". As for if he can get open, when I watch tape on him the question isn't "Can Paul Richardson beat this-coverage or that-coverage" it's much more "What coverage can't Paul Richardson beat?". Seems like every play he isn't wide open on, he's being fouled. I seriously felt like he was either streaking down the field or yellow was streaking down the field, one way or another he'd have been open. The amount of plays where he's 45 yards down field and a CB just grabs his arm and whips in to the ground because he was about to burn him is down right silly. Also, while it's not really fantasy relevant, it is relevant on an NFL and play time level; he's a better blocker than you'd think given his size.
When you hear these reports about the coaches saying "Richardson was the Colorado offense" they really aren't lying. This kid beat everyone in coverage, out jump balled everyone and out ran everyone he faced on a really crap offense where he was double covered more often than not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=960BvWmzlhM - Richardson vs Arizona
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezRBYbkChgQ - Richardson vs Oregon - He put up 5 rec for 134 yards against one of the top corners in college football and made it look easy
I'm not saying he will be a monster in this league but I can definitely see a scenario where he's the next Marvin Harrison too.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
That very well might be the case. Not too many skinny players make it to be honest. Moss comes to mind and AJ Green, but guys like Lelie bomb out all the time.
jurb26
Footballguy
Seeing that about 67% of 1st and 2nd round WRs bomb out, this is not exclusive to "skinny" guys. It's just as applicable to the "big" or BMI guys as well.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah I just don't recall too many 6' 170 lbs receivers that have done anything in the last 10 years. I'm sure there are some.
Jestefarean
Footballguy
I see shades of Marvin Harrison, and like Marvin, he's got a young QB to grow with.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I intended my comment as a joke.
Pretty much every prospect lacks in some way. One can point to a deficiency with every draftee. Some of them work out. So, I never buy into the "He's too [insert criticism]" or "He's not [insert criticism] enough". The question needs answered: does prospect make up for his glaring weakness in other ways?
In Richardson's case, I answer 'yes'. He has flexibility, runs fast, gets to top speed quickly, and catches everything. Most importantly, he gets opens. He lacks in the elusiveness category, though, so he may not serve well in screen passes. He's more of a get open down field kind of guy, though more than just a deep threat.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
DeSean Jackson is a hulking 5'10", 175 lbs.
I read an article dated 5-9 in which he claims he is up to almost 185 lbs. (which would be proportionate to Jackson if Richardson is 10 lbs. heavier, being 2" taller).
He also claimed to have a personal best electronically timed 4.28 in the 40.
* Matt Waldman mentioned it during the draft coverage podcast, and I agree, Richardson and Jarvis Landry might have made the most consistently spectacular catches in the nation.
I was very leery of Jackson leading up to the draft, due to his size, obviously, but I saw a few things that changed my mind. He was a very smooth route runner, explosive out of his breaks and clearly had outstanding hands. Richardson looks like he may fit that profile.
I read an article dated 5-9 in which he claims he is up to almost 185 lbs. (which would be proportionate to Jackson if Richardson is 10 lbs. heavier, being 2" taller).
He also claimed to have a personal best electronically timed 4.28 in the 40.
* Matt Waldman mentioned it during the draft coverage podcast, and I agree, Richardson and Jarvis Landry might have made the most consistently spectacular catches in the nation.
I was very leery of Jackson leading up to the draft, due to his size, obviously, but I saw a few things that changed my mind. He was a very smooth route runner, explosive out of his breaks and clearly had outstanding hands. Richardson looks like he may fit that profile.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
FFDude23
Footballguy
Good to hear. I was thinking the same but I was told I was high when I tried to trade him for a 2015 2nd (I needed to open up a roster spot)
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He went undrafted in one of my leagues. Small rosters 24 man but still.
cstu
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree with that. I could cut Lattimore or Eifert for him but I don't think I want to do either of those things yet. It's one of those league where half the guys don't really get into too much and the other half do. And yet, I still haven't won this league in like 5 years despite having a totally loaded roster. It illustrates just how much luck is involved no matter how stacked you think you are.
Khy
Footballguy
There's probably a lot more than you'd really think. Also, Richardson said he's currently up to 185lbs. He was that light the combine and there was a huge article abut him being interviewed about it. Saying he didn't have much to eat in college. And just having a few weeks with trainers bulked him up quick. Also, go watch videos of him from recent OTAs and minicamps. He looks much more filled out since the combine. Jerry Rice was 6'2" 200lbs
Randy Moss 6' 4" 215lbs. Same as above.
Isaac Bruce 6' 188lbs
Tim Brown 6' 190lbs
Marvin Harrison 6' 175lbs
James Lofton 6' 3" 192lbs
Torry Holt 6' 190lbs
All these 7 guys are in the Top 11 WR of all time. All of them Adee almost the exact same BMI as Richardson is right now.
I'm so sick and tired of these b.s. size arguments in every rookie thread every season. It's one of the biggest and most irrelevant evaluations in all of football. Over 50% of the top 10 all time would come into the league today and be critized for being "too small". It's just ridiculous.
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steveski
Footballguy
You can't cut either of those guys for him. Try to unload some guys in 2 for 1 deals to make room if you want Richardson.
Jestefarean
Footballguy
Good stuff!
EBF
Footballguy
I don't have combine info on most of those guys, but the league is constantly getting bigger, so I don't know how useful it is to pull out numbers for guys who debuted in the 80s and 90s. You might be "sick and tired of" hearing about size, but as long as it continues to be linked with FF success and player value then I think it will continue to be something that people emphasize. Here are last year's top 10 ppg WR's by height/weight/BMI:
Josh Gordon - 6' 3.125" - 224 - 27.9
Julio Jones - 6' 2.75" - 220 - 27.7
Calvin Johnson - 6' 5.0" - 239 - 28.3
Demaryius Thomas - 6' 3.25" - 224 - 27.8
Antonio Brown - 5' 10.125" - 186 - 26.6
AJ Green - 6' 3.625" - 211 - 25.9
Justin Blackmon - 6' 0.875" - 207 - 27.4
Brandon Marshall - 6' 4.5" - 229 - 27.5
Dez Bryant - 6' 2.0" - 224 - 28.8
Alshon Jeffery - 6' 2.875" - 216 - 27.1
80% of these guys are at least 6'2". 90% weigh at least two hundred pounds. There's only one genuinely "small" WR on the list. 90% of them are big in height, weight, or both. Without doing the math, I'd say the average is about 6'3" 220.
Things open up a little bit if you include some of the guys in the 11-20 range like Cobb, Welker, and Edelman. Generally speaking though, big WRs dominate the scoring charts and the dynasty WR rankings. With that being the case, I think it makes perfect sense to consider height and weight important variables.
What's more frustrating than people who talk about measurables are people who haven't spent any real time looking at combine numbers, yet still want to insist on expressing their opinion about what combine numbers mean and how people should value them. I think anyone who puts in the work would recognize that while there are some very good WRs who don't fit the mold, there's a pretty clear pattern among the dominant WR of the current era. Most of them are tall, thick, and fast with strong tangible indicators of explosiveness.
EBF
Footballguy
With that out of the way, I just took Richardson with the 12.08 pick in a 12 team startup as WR63. I have him in 2 out of 8 leagues now and this thread was part of the impetus for that (the other big variable is that he consistently falls REALLY far in drafts for a productive 2nd round draft pick WR). My new hunch is that after getting absolutely torched by "light as ****" TY Hilton in a loss to the Colts last year, Carroll and his buddies said, "I want one of those."
I think he has a chance to be a TY Hilton/DeSean Jackson type of player. Probably more like DeSean. He's certainly worth a punt at his criminally low sticker price.
I think he has a chance to be a TY Hilton/DeSean Jackson type of player. Probably more like DeSean. He's certainly worth a punt at his criminally low sticker price.
