2 things here have skewed the numbers, albeit so slightly:Travis Taylor was the 3rd WR taken in '99, #10 overall...bust, given the point taken in the draft (consider this taking the #3WR this yr)Robert Edwards apparently was in your 'bust' category for 1st round RB's, as he was not one of the '8 of 14' you spoke of......Edwards, my friend, was a flat out STUD, whose career ended on the beach in Hawaii after his rookie season, playing beach volleyball @the Pro Bowl9 of 14 success rate w/RB's means ~ 2 out of every 3 RB's are money...I'll take my chances there, before I take some WR that might or might not pan out...How many pass plays do you think Denny Green is really going to call in AZ this yr? Boldin, Fitz and last yr's #1 BJohnson make for a nice WR corps, to be sure...but I see AB and Fitz spliting 150 recpts, as I don't think Green is going to expose McNown to all those potential picks'buyer beware' is all I'm saying99: Torry Holt (6), David Boston (8)...Travis Taylor (10)I think we need to tailor the RB/WR comparison for this year's extraordinary strong WR class. Fitz, Roy, and Reggie were Top-10 picks. The only WR's taken with the first 10 picks since '98 are:HilliardHoltBostonWarrickBurressKRobTerrellOf these seven WR's, it would be fair to say that only Terrell is currently a bust. Now...if we look at the 1st-round RB's since '98, the list has some glaring surprises:Josh AveryRobert EdwardsFred TaylorCurtis EnisRicky WilliamsEdgeMichael BennettMcAllisterLTCanidateDayneShaun AlexanderJamal LewisThomas JonesI think it would be fair to say that approx 57% (8 out of 14) of the 1st-round RB's have actually became productive
These rankings are for dynasty, not redraft purposes. I'm sure the people who are drafting Fitzgerald are not expecting 2004 to be his career-best year.How many pass plays do you think Denny Green is really going to call in AZ this yr? Boldin, Fitz and last yr's #1 BJohnson make for a nice WR corps, to be sure...but I see AB and Fitz spliting 150 recpts, as I don't think Green is going to expose McNown to all those potential picks'buyer beware' is all I'm saying
IMO most dynasty teams are RB poor while almost every team will have a top 10 or so QB. One could argue that only one out of four of the top rookie QBs this year are going to crack the top 10 any time soon...so they will end up just riding your bench. Same can be said for the WRs. Coughlin hasn't had a QB throw for over 20 TDs. Manning would have to consistently exceed that number to be a viable fantasy starter. San Diego is a disaster, I have concerns about Rothlisberger and Losman is stuck behind Bledsoe for another year or two. So I think people are justified in their ho-hum reaction to this crop of QBs--not because of their talent, but opportunities.My thought is you need to make your first round pick count. Seems to me there are a lot of owners on this boards REACHING for the next Faulk and passing on more stable solid players simply because they're not RBs. an example from last year would be Leftwich. This guy was passed on for guys like Mussa Smith and Justin Fargus. IMO that's crazy.This years candidate appears to be Manning. He's being passed up for guys like Tatum Bell and Greg JonesWith gems you can find in deeper in your draft and on the waiver wire i see no need to Gamble with your first round selection
you guys are flying, must be nice to be without slackersHere's the latest from Z141.01 Patriots - Kevin Jones, RB Detroit Lions 1.02 Raiders - Steven Jackson, RB St Louis Rams1.03 Colts - Kellen Winslow, TE Cleveland Browns1.04 Bears - Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals1.05 Panthers - Roy Williams, WR Detroit Lions1.06 Bills - Tatum Bell, RB, Denver Broncos1.07 Panthers - Chris Perry, RB, Cincinnati Bengals1.08 Jaguars - Julius Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys1.09 Texans - Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants1.10 Jaguars - Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers 1.11 49’ers - Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars1.12 Browns - Rashaun Woods, WR, San Francisco 49'ers2.01 Browns - Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills2.02 49’ers - Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.03 Patriots - Cedric Cobbs, RB, New England Patriots2.04 Patriots - Sean Taylor, DB, Washington Redskins2.05 Packers - Jonathan Vilma, LB, New York Jets2.06 Eagles - Will Smith, DE, New Orleans Saints2.07 Bills - Greg Jones, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars 2.08 Panthers - Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers 2.09 Bears - Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota Vikings2.10 Colts - DeAngelo Hall, DB, Atlanta Falcons2.11 Packers - D.J. Williams, LB, Denver Broncos2.12 Jaguars - Kenechi Udeze, DE, Minnesota Vikings3.01 Jaguars - Ben Troupe, TE, Tennessee Titans3.02 Packers - J.P. Losman, QB, Buffalo Bills3.03 Colts - Sean Jones, DB, Cleveland Browns
I may get to pick again this weekend (3.10)you guys are flying, must be nice to be without slackersHere's the latest from Z141.01 Patriots - Kevin Jones, RB Detroit Lions 1.02 Raiders - Steven Jackson, RB St Louis Rams1.03 Colts - Kellen Winslow, TE Cleveland Browns1.04 Bears - Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals1.05 Panthers - Roy Williams, WR Detroit Lions1.06 Bills - Tatum Bell, RB, Denver Broncos1.07 Panthers - Chris Perry, RB, Cincinnati Bengals1.08 Jaguars - Julius Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys1.09 Texans - Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants1.10 Jaguars - Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers 1.11 49’ers - Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars1.12 Browns - Rashaun Woods, WR, San Francisco 49'ers2.01 Browns - Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills2.02 49’ers - Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.03 Patriots - Cedric Cobbs, RB, New England Patriots2.04 Patriots - Sean Taylor, DB, Washington Redskins2.05 Packers - Jonathan Vilma, LB, New York Jets2.06 Eagles - Will Smith, DE, New Orleans Saints2.07 Bills - Greg Jones, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars 2.08 Panthers - Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers 2.09 Bears - Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota Vikings2.10 Colts - DeAngelo Hall, DB, Atlanta Falcons2.11 Packers - D.J. Williams, LB, Denver Broncos2.12 Jaguars - Kenechi Udeze, DE, Minnesota Vikings3.01 Jaguars - Ben Troupe, TE, Tennessee Titans3.02 Packers - J.P. Losman, QB, Buffalo Bills3.03 Colts - Sean Jones, DB, Cleveland Browns
i picked at 1.8 at 4:30(5 1/2 hours ago) in Z5, the guy after me is still on the clockI may get to pick again this weekend (3.10)you guys are flying, must be nice to be without slackersHere's the latest from Z141.01 Patriots - Kevin Jones, RB Detroit Lions 1.02 Raiders - Steven Jackson, RB St Louis Rams1.03 Colts - Kellen Winslow, TE Cleveland Browns1.04 Bears - Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals1.05 Panthers - Roy Williams, WR Detroit Lions1.06 Bills - Tatum Bell, RB, Denver Broncos1.07 Panthers - Chris Perry, RB, Cincinnati Bengals1.08 Jaguars - Julius Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys1.09 Texans - Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants1.10 Jaguars - Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers 1.11 49’ers - Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars1.12 Browns - Rashaun Woods, WR, San Francisco 49'ers2.01 Browns - Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills2.02 49’ers - Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.03 Patriots - Cedric Cobbs, RB, New England Patriots2.04 Patriots - Sean Taylor, DB, Washington Redskins2.05 Packers - Jonathan Vilma, LB, New York Jets2.06 Eagles - Will Smith, DE, New Orleans Saints2.07 Bills - Greg Jones, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars 2.08 Panthers - Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers 2.09 Bears - Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota Vikings2.10 Colts - DeAngelo Hall, DB, Atlanta Falcons2.11 Packers - D.J. Williams, LB, Denver Broncos2.12 Jaguars - Kenechi Udeze, DE, Minnesota Vikings3.01 Jaguars - Ben Troupe, TE, Tennessee Titans3.02 Packers - J.P. Losman, QB, Buffalo Bills3.03 Colts - Sean Jones, DB, Cleveland Browns![]()
maybe if it's a 10 team league where they all got lucky enough to get just 1 of the top 10. But what happens when it's a 14 team league and one of the owners has 2 the top 14 QQB's on his roster. I sure would hate to have my starting QB be the 15th best QB in the league year and and year out on my dynasty team.Not going to win very many championships.IMO most dynasty teams are RB poor while almost every team will have a top 10 or so QB.
It's all about immediate gratification.Rookie QBs rarely post good fantasy numbers. Wide receivers & tight ends even more rarely. But rookie RBs routinely turn in excellent statistical seasons, even if it's an inexact science determining exactly which back will do it.Most owners would rather pick a guy who they think will help them now over a player who'll likely sit on their bench for 2-3 years.maybe if it's a 10 team league where they all got lucky enough to get just 1 of the top 10. But what happens when it's a 14 team league and one of the owners has 2 the top 14 QQB's on his roster. I sure would hate to have my starting QB be the 15th best QB in the league year and and year out on my dynasty team.Not going to win very many championships.IMO most dynasty teams are RB poor while almost every team will have a top 10 or so QB.![]()
I had you pegged for taking Roy Williams all along. Why the hesitation?I am SO about to leave Julius and Perry on the baord to take Roy at 1.05 in Z10....Please don't tell my mother, she would be ashamed I'm passing on the RBs.Current RBs: Barlow, Portis, T. JOnesCurrent Wrs: Chambers, Andre, Toomer, BurressColin
dont do it, take Julius!!!!!I am SO about to leave Julius and Perry on the baord to take Roy at 1.05 in Z10....Please don't tell my mother, she would be ashamed I'm passing on the RBs.Current RBs: Barlow, Portis, T. JOnesCurrent Wrs: Chambers, Andre, Toomer, BurressColin
well, between Z2 and Z5(3 picks in each so far) i have managed to collect the folllowing talent:Kevin JonesJulius JonesGreg JonesChris Perry Roy WilliamsReggie Williamsand i must say, getting Roy left me questioning if i selected the right player, and getting Thomas Jones' brother gave me a tingly feeling in my nether region.Roy is an f'ing nasty-machine. He has been selected, and I couldn't be happier.COlin
In my experience, I wouldn't be surprised if 12 out of 14 owners in most dynasty league each "think" they have a top 10 QB even if a couple of teams double up on the true top 10 QBs. It's all about expectations and perception--not necessarily the mathematical reality.maybe if it's a 10 team league where they all got lucky enough to get just 1 of the top 10. But what happens when it's a 14 team league and one of the owners has 2 the top 14 QQB's on his roster. I sure would hate to have my starting QB be the 15th best QB in the league year and and year out on my dynasty team.Not going to win very many championships.IMO most dynasty teams are RB poor while almost every team will have a top 10 or so QB.![]()
Obviously in 16 team or larger leagues, you many not have 2 starting QB's, but you damn well better have your starter's backup.The situation gets even worse in 16 team leagues... with only 32 NFL starting QBs, some teams could have no backup QBs in case of injuries or the bye weeks with new QBs starting in NY and SD...So in 16 team leagues, QBs are alot more valued than 10 or 12 team leagues.
Almost through round 3.couple more picks. Will update again on Monday.So far:1- RB Kevin Jones2- RB Steven Jackson3- WR Larry Fitzgerald4- RB Tatum Bell5- RB Julius Jones6- RB Chris Perry7- WR Roy Williams8- QB Eli Manning9- WR Lee Evans10- RB C Cobbs11- WR Reggie Williams 12- QB Ben Rothberger13- WR Rashaun Woods14- WR Mike Jenkins15- QB Phillip Rivers16- WR Michael Clayton17- QB JP Losman18- WR Devery Henderson19- RB Greg Jones20- WR Darius Watts21- TE Kellen Winslow22- WR Devard Darling23- WR Jericho Cotchery24- WR Derrick Hamilton25- RB Quincy Wilson26- WR Keary Colbert27- WR Bernard Berrian28- WR Ernest Wilford29- RB Michael Turner30- RB Mewelde Moore31- WR PK Sam32- RB Jarrett Payton33- WR Carlos Francis34- http://ffwarroom.com/ubb/Forum34/HTML/000362.html ^^Updated.No TE req. No IDP.Any spelling errors are due to our dopeheaded commish.
my guess is alot, if not most, leagues are RB driven. I know mine are. This causes some to covet RB and to reach sometimes during a draft And RBs tend to produce sooner than rookie WRs, QBs and TEs. If, say Bell turns out to be a Portis clone after 6 or 8 games, I could trade him for Manning or Fitz PLUS something kicked in. IMHO.My thought is you need to make your first round pick count. Seems to me there are a lot of owners on this boards REACHING for the next Faulk and passing on more stable solid players simply because they're not RBs. an example from last year would be Leftwich. This guy was passed on for guys like Mussa Smith and Justin Fargus. IMO that's crazy.This years candidate appears to be Manning. He's being passed up for guys like Tatum Bell and Greg JonesWith gems you can find in deeper in your draft and on the waiver wire i see no need to Gamble with your first round selection
1.02 is me and yes I am a hypocrite.Zealots 1, the original.1.01 Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Kones, RB, Detroit Lions1.02 Carolina Panthers - Julius Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys1.03 Detroit Lions - Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams1.04 Indianapolis Colts - Tatum Bell, RB, Denver1.05 Buffalo Bills - Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants1.06 Buffalo Bills(Thru Arizona)(Originally Broncos) - Kellen Winslow TE - Cleveland Browns1.07 Washington Redskins - Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Through one round. Pats traded up to get Winslow, only pick trade in the first.Zealots Field 12:
1. Bears - RB Kevin Jones - DET
2. Bengals - RB Steven Jackson - STL
3. Chiefs - WR Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ
4. Rams - RB Tatum Bell - DEN
5. Lions - RB Julius Jones - DAL
6. Colts - RB Chris Perry - CIN
7. Raiders - WR Roy Williams - DET (yeah, it sucked having to pick him at #7)
8. Saints - WR Reggie Williams - JAC
9. Dolphins - QB Eli Manning - NYG
10. Jaguars - QB Ben Roethlisberger - PIT
11. Patriots - TE Kellen Winslow II - CLE
12. Vikings - DB Sean Taylor - WAS
So far, at least, no pick trades which affect the first round, so we should get a pretty fair idea of a "normal" draft.
bump updateim in two Zealots that got started today
Z2
Round 1
1.Bills(me)-Kevin Jones
2.Steelers-Stephen Jackson
3.Patriots-Julius Jones
4.Dolphins-Roy Williams
5.Patriots-Tatum Bell
6.Patriots-Larry Fitzgerald
7.Patriots-Kellen Winslow
8.Dolphins-Eli Manning
9.Bills-Reggie Williams
10.Bills-Chirs Perry (i own Rudi Johnson)
11.Packers-Ben Roethlisberger
12.Panthers-Phillip Rivers
round 2
1.Patriots-Lee Evans
2.Steelers-Rashaun Woods
3.Bucs-Cedric Cobbs
4.Raiders-JP Losman
5.Saints-Michael Clayton
6.Raiders-Michael Jenkins
7.Bills-Sean Taylor
8.Bucs-Michael Turner (no, he doesnt have Tomlinson)
9.Redskins-Jonathan Vilma
10.Dolphins-
11.Packers-
12.Saints-
Z5
1.Bears-Kevin Jones
2.49ers-Tatum Bell
3.Vikings-Stephen Jackson
4.Bills(me)-Julius Jones(thrilled to get him here, he was my #2)
5.Cowboys-Eli Manning
6-Patriots-Larry Fitzgerald
7.Eagles-Kellen Winslow
8.Bills-Roy Williams
9.Lions-Ben Roethlisberger
10.Cowboys-Chris Perry
11.Broncos-Reggie Williams
12.Vikings-Rashaun Woods
Round 2
1.Bears-Lee Evans
2.Bears-Sean Taylor
3.Vikings-Cedric Cobbs
4.Bills-Greg Jones
5.Cowboys-Michael Clayton
6.Patriots-Phillip Rivers
7.Bears-Michael Jenkins
8.Patriots-JP Losman
9.Lions-Mewelde Moore
10.Dolphins-Devery Henderson
11.Broncos-
12.Eagles-
Update for a really slow dayZealots Z4 - DYNASTY
53 man rosters - IDP
1-2-3-1-K-OFF Flex(RB/WR/TE)
2-2-2 - 2DEF Flex (no more than 3 starters at any position)
1.01 Broncos - Kevin Jones-RB-DET
1.02 Cowboys - Stephen Jackson-RB-STL (Faulk owner)
1.03 Panthers - Tatum Bell-RB-DEN
1.04 Giants - Julius Jones-RB-DAL (Deuce and not much else - verry happy guy)
1.05 Cowboys - Larry Fitzgerald-WR-ARZ
1.06 Giants - Roy Williams-WR-DET (Chargers trade down for 2.09 & 2005 1st & 3rd)
1.07 Packers - Chris Perry-RB-CIN
1.08 Panthers - Kellen Winslow-TE-CLE
1.09 Panthers - Eli Manning-QB-NYG
1.10 Panthers - Sean Taylor-S-WAS
1.11 Cowboys - Reggie Williams-WR-JAX
1.12 Bears -
Here's a Z18 update. I was amazed to see Perry tumble like he did.Z18 is off and running. I'll update this as picks come in. My picks are in bold:
1.01 - Kevin Jones
1.02 - Steven Jackson
1.03 - Julius Jones
1.04 - Eli Manning
1.05 - Larry Fitzgerald
1.06 - Tatum Bell
1.07 - Reggie Williams - I've always liked him more than Roy. I have Heap, so Winslow wouldn't be the wisest pick. Reggie should step in and become my WR3 behind Chad and Andre Johnson.
1.08 - Kellen Winslow
1.09 - Roy Williams
1.10 - Ben Roethlisberger
1.11 - Sean Taylor
1.12 - Philip Rivers
2.01 - Lee Evans
2.02 - Rashaun Woods
2.03 - Mike Jenkins
2.04 - Chris Perry
2.05 - Greg Jones
2.06 - Cedric Cobbs - I was practically pulling my hair out trying decide between Jonathan Vilma and Cedric Cobbs. Vilma is the safer pick and a guy who I feel will become a tremendous LB, but I think Cobbs has more point potential and fills a bigger need. This is one of those picks that I could regret later, but hopefully Cobbs can step up and stay healthy.
2.07 -
2.08 -
2.09 -
2.10 -
2.11 -
2.12 -
bumpity bumpOf the first 16 picks - only 3 are by the original team. 13 have been traded, 3 picks traded twice, one pick traded 3 times.Zealots Z4 - DYNASTY
53 man rosters - IDP
1-2-3-1-K-OFF Flex(RB/WR/TE)
2-2-2 - 2DEF Flex (no more than 3 starters at any position)
1.01 Broncos - Kevin Jones-RB-DET
1.02 Cowboys - Stephen Jackson-RB-STL (Faulk owner)
1.03 Panthers - Tatum Bell-RB-DEN
1.04 Giants - Julius Jones-RB-DAL (Deuce and not much else - verry happy guy)
1.05 Cowboys - Larry Fitzgerald-WR-ARZ
1.06 Giants - Roy Williams-WR-DET (Chargers trade down for 2.09 & 2005 1st & 3rd)
1.07 Packers - Chris Perry-RB-CIN
1.08 Panthers - Kellen Winslow-TE-CLE
1.09 Panthers - Eli Manning-QB-NYG
1.10 Panthers - Sean Taylor-S-WAS (4th 1st RDer and had no 2nd's to wait)
1.11 Cowboys - Reggie Williams-WR-JAX
1.12 Bears - Michael Clayton-WR-TBB
2.01 Bears - Greg Jones-RB-JAX
2.02 Cowboys - Ben Roethlisberger-QB-PIT
2.03 Packers - Lee Evans-WR-BUF
2.04 Bucs - Rahaun Woods-WR-SFO (SD owner traded 1.06 and 2.04 for 2005 1st's)
2.05 Texans -
2.06 Chargers -
2.07 Broncos -
Are you more amazed at Perry's tumble in Z21 or Reggie Williams falling to 2.05 in Z18?Here's a Z18 update. I was amazed to see Perry tumble like he did.Z18 is off and running. I'll update this as picks come in. My picks are in bold:
1.01 - Kevin Jones
1.02 - Steven Jackson
1.03 - Julius Jones
1.04 - Eli Manning
1.05 - Larry Fitzgerald
1.06 - Tatum Bell
1.07 - Reggie Williams - I've always liked him more than Roy. I have Heap, so Winslow wouldn't be the wisest pick. Reggie should step in and become my WR3 behind Chad and Andre Johnson.
1.08 - Kellen Winslow
1.09 - Roy Williams
1.10 - Ben Roethlisberger
1.11 - Sean Taylor
1.12 - Philip Rivers
2.01 - Lee Evans
2.02 - Rashaun Woods
2.03 - Mike Jenkins
2.04 - Chris Perry
2.05 - Greg Jones
2.06 - Cedric Cobbs - I was practically pulling my hair out trying decide between Jonathan Vilma and Cedric Cobbs. Vilma is the safer pick and a guy who I feel will become a tremendous LB, but I think Cobbs has more point potential and fills a bigger need. This is one of those picks that I could regret later, but hopefully Cobbs can step up and stay healthy.
2.07 -
2.08 -
2.09 -
2.10 -
2.11 -
2.12 -
1.1 S Jackson1.2 K Jones1.3 T Bell1.4 J Jones1.5 K Winslow1.6 E. Manning1.7 L Fitzgerald1.8 S. Taylor1.9 Roy Williams1.10 B Roethlisberger1.11 C Perry1.12 M. Jenkins2.1 G Jones2.2 P Rivers2.3 R Woods2.4 J Vilma2.5 Reg Williams