JKL
Footballguy
How do you value running backs versus wide receivers in a dynasty rookie draft? Here is some data showing the average starting careers of both RB's and WR's drafted between picks 1 and 100 in the NFL draft, for the period 1978-2002. The number of starting seasons is based on the data available at pro football reference through the customizable draft query tool. For example, here is the list of all WR's drafted between 1 and 100 from 1978-2002.
First, the Running Backs. MN= mean, MED= median, 2+, 5+ and 8+ represent percentage of players drafted who started at least that many seasons.
PICKS MN MED 2+ 5+ 8+1-10 5.8 5.5 0.97 0.65 0.2911-20 3.7 4.0 0.67 0.30 0.0921-30 2.8 2.5 0.62 0.21 0.0331-40 3.1 2.0 0.59 0.28 0.1041-50 2.9 2.0 0.56 0.30 0.1151-60 1.6 1.0 0.38 0.08 0.0061-70 1.4 0.0 0.30 0.13 0.0071-80 1.8 1.0 0.37 0.13 0.0381-90 0.9 0.0 0.20 0.08 0.0091-100 1.1 0.0 0.25 0.13 0.00And now the WR's . . .
Based on this list, where would you, say for example, put a Top 5 WR versus a Running Back at around pick 20? It certainly depends on your league's structure and starting lineup requirements, and how much more valuable a single starting season from a RB is versus a WR. Since there are so many formats, I'll let others contribute specific commentary on what this might mean as you try to decide where to slot RB's versus WR's in your draft rankings. Here are a few general notes:1. The Wide Receiver numbers are, if anything, understated because there are alot more WR's still in their prime who will continue to add to starting numbers, relative to running backs. The back end cutoff of 2002 is probably okay for most of the running backs, but severely understates the value of guys like Burress, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, and Steve Smith, who will continue to rack up several more starting seasons.
2. On the other hand, there are two wide receiver starting positions on each team, so the receivers should get more starting seasons, even if some are at WR2. A running back can be listed as a non-starter and still have fantasy value, moreso than a WR. Still, if a WR is getting to 8+ starting seasons or more, you can be pretty sure that at least some of those were elite.
3. The RB starting seasons do include some seasons where a player started at a position other than RB (FB/TE/WR) if the player was originally listed in draft as RB. For example, Daryl Johnston is listed as a RB, but started as a FB.
First, the Running Backs. MN= mean, MED= median, 2+, 5+ and 8+ represent percentage of players drafted who started at least that many seasons.
PICKS MN MED 2+ 5+ 8+1-10 5.8 5.5 0.97 0.65 0.2911-20 3.7 4.0 0.67 0.30 0.0921-30 2.8 2.5 0.62 0.21 0.0331-40 3.1 2.0 0.59 0.28 0.1041-50 2.9 2.0 0.56 0.30 0.1151-60 1.6 1.0 0.38 0.08 0.0061-70 1.4 0.0 0.30 0.13 0.0071-80 1.8 1.0 0.37 0.13 0.0381-90 0.9 0.0 0.20 0.08 0.0091-100 1.1 0.0 0.25 0.13 0.00And now the WR's . . .
Code:
PICKS MN MED 2+ 5+ 8+1-10 6.9 7.5 0.88 0.65 0.5011-20 5.1 4.0 0.73 0.45 0.2121-30 4.3 3.0 0.60 0.48 0.1631-40 4.5 4.0 0.74 0.37 0.2241-50 2.6 1.0 0.43 0.24 0.1451-60 2.6 1.0 0.43 0.27 0.1061-70 1.7 1.0 0.44 0.15 0.0071-80 2.1 1.0 0.36 0.21 0.0081-90 2.4 0.0 0.34 0.23 0.1191-100 1.8 0.0 0.33 0.17 0.102. On the other hand, there are two wide receiver starting positions on each team, so the receivers should get more starting seasons, even if some are at WR2. A running back can be listed as a non-starter and still have fantasy value, moreso than a WR. Still, if a WR is getting to 8+ starting seasons or more, you can be pretty sure that at least some of those were elite.
3. The RB starting seasons do include some seasons where a player started at a position other than RB (FB/TE/WR) if the player was originally listed in draft as RB. For example, Daryl Johnston is listed as a RB, but started as a FB.
