[DYNASTY] The Buy / Sell List (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

Probably sooner actually, I took him with my 5th overall pick in an inaugural college draft for a dyno league (we expanded that year to include it) because I felt more comfortable waiting 2 years on him rather than taking the highest rated prospect due to come out that year. Same rationale with taking Luck in round 2.

 

[az_prof]

Since you seem to be arguing against my comment that he'll be the 6th option in the passing game, do you care to project targets for the players I mentioned? I think if you go through the exercise of doing that, you will quickly realize that Royal's upside is limited due to limited opportunity, unless multiple players ahead of him in the pecking order miss substantial time.

For starters, I think Royal is a better player than Meachem and Brown. So the idea that he's automatically behind them on the depth chart doesn't really jive with me, especially when his own head coach is saying he's the most impressive player he's seen in years. I also think he's fully capable of outproducing Malcom Floyd. So who does that leave? Gates and Mathews? Mathews is only a RB. He will never be the focal point of the passing game. Gates is a great player, but a good TE isn't a death sentence for WR production. Welker/Gronk/Hernandez, Colston/Graham, Jones/Gonzalez, etc. Also, Gates is old enough where his production could fall off a cliff at any moment. Nobody is saying Eddie Royal is a slam dunk lock to save your FF season. As a late round pick that nobody is high on, I'd definitely roll the dice. Cost of acquisition is a big factor in a list like this. It's not like your team will be sunk if you give up a late draft pick or bottom-of-the-roster fodder for Royal and he busts.

Norv also has heaped praise on Meachem:(KFFL) San Diego Chargers head coach Norv Turner said Friday, June 8, that WR Robert Meachem has been more versatile than when he looked at videotape from his play with the New Orleans Saints. "Meachem can get up the field. He's a deep threat, but he's also a more versatile receiver than I thought he'd be when you looked at tape," Turner said. "He can do a lot more things than he did in New Orleans because they didn't need those things from him because they had other guys. But he's an outstanding route (runner), he's a good 'feel' receiver and he does have outstanding hands."And,The San Diego Chargers decided to replace Vincent Jackson with former New Orleans Saints WR Robert Meachem. While it may seem like a step down in overall talent and ability, Chargers head coach Norv Turner believes Meachem can catch around 60-70 passes for 1000 yards.“Look at the history of the offense, the things we’ve done,” Turner said, via the National Football Post. “Meachem is capable of giving us that stat production if he can play a complete season.”

 

[beef]

Britt is a huge sell while he still has believers in denile.

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench and the team would not have re-signed him.

Demary Thomas is also fetching stud WR returns. Gotta be careful here and not pass up a no brainer for hype.

 

[bigunreal]

People are wildly overvaluing Richardson. The track record for the most hyped rookie RBs is not good, year after year. For every Tomlinson and Peterson, there are far more Rashan Salaams, Reggie Bushs, Kajina Carters, Blair Thomases, etc. It's nice to take a flier on them, but to suggest that you'd rather have an unproven commodity like Richardson (going to a putrid offense) over Foster is just ridiculous.

FWIW, here's who I'm buying and selling:

Buying

Peyton Hillis- No surprise here. At his present ADP, he's perhaps the best value in startup leagues.

Ahmad Bradshaw- Not getting much respect. The Giants figure to score often, and only have rookie Wilson there to vulture carries.

Philip Rivers- Bounced back nicely down the stretch last year after an uncharacteristically rough start. Is still an elite QB, but is being undervalued by fantasy owners.

Willis McGahee- For this year, anyway. Figures to prosper almost as much as the Denver WRs from Peyton Manning's presence there. No real competition for goal line carries, and they should score quite a bit.

Jordy Nelson- No one is respecting his monster fantasy year. This guy only played about 60% of his team's snaps last season, and still managed to score 15 TDs. Especially in leagues that give bonuses for long TDs, Nelson is a top tier WR, and a real bargain at his ADP. If the Packers treat him like every other great WR in the league, and he plays most of the snaps, he is going to light things up statistically.

Robert Meachem- Never really given a chance to play regularly in New Orleans, he figures to benefit enormously from playing with Rivers, on an offense that doesn't rotate WRs in and out constantly. I think he will match or top VJax's best numbers.

Selling

Andre Johnson- As I've said for many years, this guy is not a top fantasy WR, except perhaps in PPR leagues. He is always overvalued, and coming off an injury, on a team that figures to run a lot, he should be avoided unless he becomes a bargain. But then again, I've never liked players who don't score TDs.

Darren Sproles- Has one year wonder written all over him. Are you really going to take a chance that he scores all those fluky TDs again? I would suggest avoiding all Saints' players, except maybe Brees, because the effect of all the off season madness will impact them negatively to at least some extent.

Victor Cruz- Another potential one year wonder. Nicks is the clear #1 there, but many owners are drafting Cruz before him. I think a lot of things came together for Cruz last year, and he had a productive streak that won't translate into a great career. I just don't think he is an elite player.

Jermichael Finley- For inexplicable reasons, fantasy owners continue to treat this underachiever like a top tier TE. He can't catch, and is becoming an afterthought on a team filled with great WRs.

Pierre Garcon- He isn't a #1 WR. He isn't even a #2 WR. He will totally bust in the talent-challenged Redskins offense. If someone buys into the hype, take what you can get for him.

RGIII- See Garcon. And Josh Morgan. And the mess at RB. He will have to be even better than everyone has declared him to be, before he's taken a single snap in the NFL, to be able to produce with all the "talent" around him.

Beanie Wells- With Ryan Williams back, and his own health issues, he isn't a good bet to come close to matching last year's surprising production.

Reggie Bush- Last year's numbers astonished everyone who's watched him play for years. I simply don't believe he has developed into an every down RB at this stage. Take what you can get for him.

Vincent Jackson- I've never considered him elite. Highly inconsistent, and with a huge contract, on a new much less talented) offense, I don't see big numbers for him. People underestimate how important Philip Rivers was to his production.

Michael Turner- This is a popular "sell," for obvious reasons. Age, wear and tear, the transition to a passing dominant offense, etc.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench

This is absurd. DeAngelo is a damn good RB. His career YPC is 5.1 (check out where that ranks among RBs in the modern era) despite never playing with a great QB until last year (8 in the box non-stop). There isn't a RB in the league that would put him entirely on the bench. Maybe healthy Peterson.

 

[todisco1]

BuyingJordy Nelson- No one is respecting his monster fantasy year. This guy only played about 60% of his team's snaps last season, and still managed to score 15 TDs. Especially in leagues that give bonuses for long TDs, Nelson is a top tier WR, and a real bargain at his ADP. If the Packers treat him like every other great WR in the league, and he plays most of the snaps, he is going to light things up statistically. SellingVictor Cruz- Another potential one year wonder. Nicks is the clear #1 there, but many owners are drafting Cruz before him. I think a lot of things came together for Cruz last year, and he had a productive streak that won't translate into a great career. I just don't think he is an elite player.

Boy I dunno, I'd reverse these two. I watched every game Cruz played last year and he is an outstanding talent. The guy has some of the best moves I've seen in a long time. I think he's straight up better than Jordy Nelson, and Nelson has far more competition for catches with Jennings/Finley/Cobb/Jones. You think Cruz is a fluke but Nelson will keep up his incredible TD to catch ratio... I'm not quite buying that logic, but we'll find out soon enough. I like the write-up, though, good stuff.

 

[beef]

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench

This is absurd. DeAngelo is a damn good RB. His career YPC is 5.1 (check out where that ranks among RBs in the modern era) despite never playing with a great QB until last year (8 in the box non-stop). There isn't a RB in the league that would put him entirely on the bench. Maybe healthy Peterson.

Yet Stewart is still valued as a stud.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench

This is absurd. DeAngelo is a damn good RB. His career YPC is 5.1 (check out where that ranks among RBs in the modern era) despite never playing with a great QB until last year (8 in the box non-stop). There isn't a RB in the league that would put him entirely on the bench. Maybe healthy Peterson.

Yet Stewart is still valued as a stud.

He's a UFA after this season. Depending on where he lands, he easily could be. He's been ridiculously good both in the timeshare and when he had that run as the featured guy late in 2009. Saying he's not good is inaccurate and short-sighted. And check the trade thread; he's definitely not trading at "stud" prices. He's a mid-40s dynasty startup pick, which is about right IMO for a guy whose value is just "potential."

 

[Dragon1952]

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench

This is absurd. DeAngelo is a damn good RB. His career YPC is 5.1 (check out where that ranks among RBs in the modern era) despite never playing with a great QB until last year (8 in the box non-stop). There isn't a RB in the league that would put him entirely on the bench. Maybe healthy Peterson.

Yet Stewart is still valued as a stud.

He's a UFA after this season. Depending on where he lands, he easily could be. He's been ridiculously good both in the timeshare and when he had that run as the featured guy late in 2009. Saying he's not good is inaccurate and short-sighted. And check the trade thread; he's definitely not trading at "stud" prices. He's a mid-40s dynasty startup pick, which is about right IMO for a guy whose value is just "potential."

I don't see Carolina letting him go next year and if so he will always be in a 2-3 way timeshare.

 

[Xue]

People are wildly overvaluing Richardson. The track record for the most hyped rookie RBs is not good, year after year. For every Tomlinson and Peterson, there are far more Rashan Salaams, Reggie Bushs, Kajina Carters, Blair Thomases, etc. It's nice to take a flier on them, but to suggest that you'd rather have an unproven commodity like Richardson (going to a putrid offense) over Foster is just ridiculous.

Richardson is 21 and Foster is 26. The decision is easy to go Richardson.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench

This is absurd. DeAngelo is a damn good RB. His career YPC is 5.1 (check out where that ranks among RBs in the modern era) despite never playing with a great QB until last year (8 in the box non-stop). There isn't a RB in the league that would put him entirely on the bench. Maybe healthy Peterson.

Yet Stewart is still valued as a stud.

He's a UFA after this season. Depending on where he lands, he easily could be. He's been ridiculously good both in the timeshare and when he had that run as the featured guy late in 2009. Saying he's not good is inaccurate and short-sighted. And check the trade thread; he's definitely not trading at "stud" prices. He's a mid-40s dynasty startup pick, which is about right IMO for a guy whose value is just "potential."

I don't see Carolina letting him go next year and if so he will always be in a 2-3 way timeshare.

Yeah, it's definitely a possibility. Considering the contract that they gave DeAngelo, though, that would be a TON of money tied up at a less important position. Might have made sense before they knew what they had in Cam, but now? I also think that they signed Tolbert as the "power" half of the RBBC in anticipation of possibly losing Stewart next year. It's totally up in the air, but then that's why Stewart is worth less than the other guys with elite talent at RB.

 

[beef]

Same for Stewart. If he was that good he would have planted Deangelo on the bench

This is absurd. DeAngelo is a damn good RB. His career YPC is 5.1 (check out where that ranks among RBs in the modern era) despite never playing with a great QB until last year (8 in the box non-stop). There isn't a RB in the league that would put him entirely on the bench. Maybe healthy Peterson.

Yet Stewart is still valued as a stud.

He's a UFA after this season. Depending on where he lands, he easily could be. He's been ridiculously good both in the timeshare and when he had that run as the featured guy late in 2009. Saying he's not good is inaccurate and short-sighted. And check the trade thread; he's definitely not trading at "stud" prices. He's a mid-40s dynasty startup pick, which is about right IMO for a guy whose value is just "potential."

I don't see Carolina letting him go next year and if so he will always be in a 2-3 way timeshare.

Exactly. I didn't say he wasn't good. Just that he wasn't good enough to be the primary on his own team. Ray Rice kicked McGahee out of town. People around here believe Stewart is more talented than Rice. Maybe he is, but his fantasy numbers dwarf Rice's. And Stewart couldn't get rid of an aging Williams.

 

[dickey moe]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

You do realize that Peyton freaking Hillis finished right behind Foster (and McCoy, I believe) in FF scoring a couple of seasons ago, with this offensive line?

 

[jurb26]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

You do realize that Peyton freaking Hillis finished right behind Foster (and McCoy, I believe) in FF scoring a couple of seasons ago, with this a worse offensive line?

Fixed.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

You do realize that Peyton freaking Hillis finished right behind Foster (and McCoy, I believe) in FF scoring a couple of seasons ago, with this offensive line?

There are plenty of threads discussing Richardson where lots of opinions have been laid out on both sides. In a nutshell: the coach and coordinator have changed, you are ignoring the putrid play of the entire offense last year (including the supposedly great line), they will be starting a rookie at QB, the receivers are worse (Little/Gordon have good potential, but not in 2012), and Hillis is a good blocker and receiver which is where a ton of his points came (rookies struggle in this area almost universally). Also, Hillis did finish 2nd that year, but he was 90 points behind Foster. The Texans have improved, the Browns have gotten worse IMO.

 

[jurb26]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

You do realize that Peyton freaking Hillis finished right behind Foster (and McCoy, I believe) in FF scoring a couple of seasons ago, with this offensive line?

There are plenty of threads discussing Richardson where lots of opinions have been laid out on both sides. In a nutshell: the coach and coordinator have changed, you are ignoring the putrid play of the entire offense last year (including the supposedly great line), they will be starting a rookie at QB, the receivers are worse (Little/Gordon have good potential, but not in 2012), and Hillis is a good blocker and receiver which is where a ton of his points came (rookies struggle in this area almost universally). Also, Hillis did finish 2nd that year, but he was 90 points behind Foster. The Texans have improved, the Browns have gotten worse IMO.

Wait, the same Texans who lost 2 starTers on their dominant Oline have gotten better?A Clev WR unit that is virtually the same with more experience and a swing for the fences gamble, Gordon, is worse?

The putrid play in Clev was at the skill positions, most notably QB. As epically bad as the QB play was, the WRs weren't far behind and the RBs not much farther from that.

Clev has upgraded every aspect of their offense from last year. How exactly has Hou. done so?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Having Schaub and Andre Johnson back should help quite a bit. Holmgren and Shurmer are both god-awful, and are probably lame ducks considering what's going on with the ownership of the team. 2012 has epic disaster written all over it in Cleveland, IMO.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

You do realize that Peyton freaking Hillis finished right behind Foster (and McCoy, I believe) in FF scoring a couple of seasons ago, with this offensive line?

There are plenty of threads discussing Richardson where lots of opinions have been laid out on both sides. In a nutshell: the coach and coordinator have changed, you are ignoring the putrid play of the entire offense last year (including the supposedly great line), they will be starting a rookie at QB, the receivers are worse (Little/Gordon have good potential, but not in 2012), and Hillis is a good blocker and receiver which is where a ton of his points came (rookies struggle in this area almost universally). Also, Hillis did finish 2nd that year, but he was 90 points behind Foster. The Texans have improved, the Browns have gotten worse IMO.

Wait, the same Texans who lost 2 starTers on their dominant Oline have gotten better?A Clev WR unit that is virtually the same with more experience and a swing for the fences gamble, Gordon, is worse?

The putrid play in Clev was at the skill positions, most notably QB. As epically bad as the QB play was, the WRs weren't far behind and the RBs not much farther from that.

Clev has upgraded every aspect of their offense from last year. How exactly has Hou. done so?

ZB olinemen are pretty intercahngeable, its the system not the lineman. minimal impact on Foster and I think with Schaub and AJ back should help even more.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Having Schaub and Andre Johnson back should help quite a bit. Holmgren and Shurmer are both god-awful, and are probably lame ducks considering what's going on with the ownership of the team. 2012 has epic disaster written all over it in Cleveland, IMO.

Holmgren is god awful? In what universe do you live in?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Having Schaub and Andre Johnson back should help quite a bit. Holmgren and Shurmer are both god-awful, and are probably lame ducks considering what's going on with the ownership of the team. 2012 has epic disaster written all over it in Cleveland, IMO.

Holmgren is god awful? In what universe do you live in?

He's pretty close to HOF level as a coach, but as a GM / front office guy he sucks. His tenure in Cleveland has been pretty terrible. The vast majority of Cleveland fans on this board agree with me.

 

[Dez]

All this talk about trading 26 year old RB's in their prime for value is all well and good but in most leagues you need a couple of stud backs to win championships most of the time. I love value as much as the next guy but you know what I love even more than value...this thing called "winning". I let guys like Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Tomlinson, S-Jackson all die on my roster because they kept winning me gobs of championships and I will take gobs of championships over cashing out a player before his time is up.

 

[EBF]

All this talk about trading 26 year old RB's in their prime for value is all well and good but in most leagues you need a couple of stud backs to win championships most of the time. I love value as much as the next guy but you know what I love even more than value...this thing called "winning". I let guys like Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Tomlinson, S-Jackson all die on my roster because they kept winning me gobs of championships and I will take gobs of championships over cashing out a player before his time is up.

But wouldn't you trade a 26 year old Randy Moss for a 21 year old Randy Moss?I don't think anyone is advocating trading away superstars for nothing. The whole idea is getting the same caliber of player, but younger.I think it's a bit of a flaw in the system that a player like Richardson and a player like Foster are thought to have similar dynasty value when one of them is 5 years older than the other. I actually think Richardson is ahead of him by a pretty wide margin. Of course, the risk with this kind of thinking is that you trade a guy like Randy Moss for a "next big thing" like Charles Rogers only to have the rook completely flop. Obviously there is a downside to both approaches. But in the rare case of a can't-miss mortal lock elite prospect like Richardson, I'd feel pretty comfortable moving an elite veteran back for an elite rookie back. It's rare that I have that much faith in a rookie, but these guys come along sometimes and I think you have to value them accordingly. Here's a PPR startup that I did back in 2006:http://football99.myfantasyleague.com/2005/options?L=73850&O=17I took Reggie Bush with the 1.03 overall pick before he was even drafted. He has been a moderate disappointment as an NFL player and yet I still think he looks like a better choice than almost anyone else picked in the first round that year. He's producing useful numbers long after guys like Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook, and Clinton Portis have washed out of the league. And bear in mind that this is a guy who didn't even live up to the hype. Imagine if he had actually become the superstar people imagined.Indiscriminately trading all of your best veterans for rookies and prospects is not a good philosophy, and I've been burned by similar moves in the past. But whereas people are quick to acknowledge the downside, I don't know that all of them fully recognize the upside. There's a HUGE difference in value between a 21 year old superstar and a 26 year old superstar. Especially at RB. Going all in on a player like Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson can give you an edge for years. The trick is identifying which "next big thing" is actually legit. That's the hard part.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Giving a link of a start-up where you took young players like Reggie Bush, Matt Jones, and Chad Jackson might not be the best way to make us feel good about your evaluation of Trent Richardson's talent.

But at least we know what EBF stands for now!

What does your roster in that league look like now, for ####s and giggles?

 

[Instinctive]

All this talk about trading 26 year old RB's in their prime for value is all well and good but in most leagues you need a couple of stud backs to win championships most of the time. I love value as much as the next guy but you know what I love even more than value...this thing called "winning". I let guys like Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Tomlinson, S-Jackson all die on my roster because they kept winning me gobs of championships and I will take gobs of championships over cashing out a player before his time is up.

But wouldn't you trade a 26 year old Randy Moss for a 21 year old Randy Moss?I don't think anyone is advocating trading away superstars for nothing. The whole idea is getting the same caliber of player, but younger.

I think it's a bit of a flaw in the system that a player like Richardson and a player like Foster are thought to have similar dynasty value when one of them is 5 years older than the other. I actually think Richardson is ahead of him by a pretty wide margin. Of course, the risk with this kind of thinking is that you trade a guy like Randy Moss for a "next big thing" like Charles Rogers only to have the rook completely flop.

Obviously there is a downside to both approaches. But in the rare case of a can't-miss mortal lock elite prospect like Richardson, I'd feel pretty comfortable moving an elite veteran back for an elite rookie back. It's rare that I have that much faith in a rookie, but these guys come along sometimes and I think you have to value them accordingly. Here's a PPR startup that I did back in 2006:

http://football99.myfantasyleague.com/2005/options?L=73850&O=17

I took Reggie Bush with the 1.03 overall pick before he was even drafted. He has been a moderate disappointment as an NFL player and yet I still think he looks like a better choice than almost anyone else picked in the first round that year. He's producing useful numbers long after guys like Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook, and Clinton Portis have washed out of the league. And bear in mind that this is a guy who didn't even live up to the hype. Imagine if he had actually become the superstar people imagined.

Indiscriminately trading all of your best veterans for rookies and prospects is not a good philosophy, and I've been burned by similar moves in the past. But whereas people are quick to acknowledge the downside, I don't know that all of them fully recognize the upside. There's a HUGE difference in value between a 21 year old superstar and a 26 year old superstar. Especially at RB. Going all in on a player like Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson can give you an edge for years. The trick is identifying which "next big thing" is actually legit. That's the hard part.

I think you're insane. Tomlinson, Fitzgerald, and Manning all were easily better picks given what we know over the next 6 years. I think Steven Jackson has been as well.So you could put Bush as a middle of the road pick.

Then again - Portis and Westbrook both DRAMATICALLY outproduce Reggie Bush in the next two seasons alone for VBD vs Bush's career. I'd rather have had them as well. Bush has been replacement level or worse production in almost every single season of his career. Portis and Westy were difference makers for you, even for a shorter time. Sure, they aren't worth as much now...but what has Bush really done for you over his entire career?

This isn;t even a debate about 3 seasons of top 5 or 7 seasons of top 10 production...this is 3 seasons of top 10 vs 1 season of top 20 in 6 years...You don't actually believe that Bush is one of the better picks in that first round, right? You're trying to make a point here? Stretching it a little bit?

 

[EBF]

Giving a link of a start-up where you took young players like Reggie Bush, Matt Jones, and Chad Jackson might not be the best way to make us feel good about your evaluation of Trent Richardson's talent. But at least we know what EBF stands for now! What does your roster in that league look like now, for ####s and giggles?

Finished last in the first season. Drafted Peterson. Been in the playoffs every year since. http://football33.myfantasyleague.com/2012/options?L=44263&O=07&F=0013Regarding Reggie, he was a ppg machine his first couple years in the league. Remember that he caught a lot of passes early in his career. I went back and checked the league scoring. He was a top 10 ppg back from 2006-2008 in this league. Finished as RB13 this past season. Might have a couple more years left before it's all said and done.

 

[Concept Coop]

Buying:

-Santonio Holmes: Simply too talented not to pursue at his current cost of acquisition. The short term doesn't look great, with the QBs on his roster. The long term is hindered due to age. But there is always the chance of his situation improving drastically over the next 1-2 years, and he is still only 28 years old. Imagine him ever having a top 5-7 QB, which isn't impossible; the Jets could move on from him, or their quarterbacks. In summary: You can buy him for what his is (28 YO WR3) and not pay for his upside (2+ years of WR2 production).

-Mark Ingram: The Ingram talk reminds me of the CJ Spiller talk a year ago. Simply put - you don't dump a young guy with pedigree this early in their careers. Ingram looked average last season, and even overmatched, athletically, by those on the other side of the ball. But he wouldn't be the first RB to put it together after a year. Also, heart was never a question for Ingram. In a league where the difference between players is often mental, I'll gladly place a bet on Ingram.

- Mike Wallace: Those claiming he is a one-trick-pony are off mark. He is often used as such because it benefits the offense. But go back and watch the Super Bowl loss to the Pakers; that should have been the sign we needed to jump on him last off season. What he has done with constant bracket coverage is remarkable. Especially in non-PPR leagues, Wallace is an easy buy low for me.

-Steven Jackson/Isaiah Pead: If you believe in Pead, or even trust the Rams when they say Pead is the future, you have to love the value here. The combination of proven, steady production, and youth, burst, upside is exciting. The Rams are not shy about spending for weapons, and once they those investments start panning out, we could be looking at a productive young offense. Enjoy Jackson in the short-term, and value Pead as his young replacement.

-Greg Olsen: Cam appreciated his TEs last season. The only issue was that he had two to divide the production. Shockey is gone and Olsen is a fluid athlete who could finally start creating the mismatches he seemed to promise as a college prospect.

-Vick Ballard: Not a threat to be a long-term RB solution to any NFL team - I don't think he's physically gifted enough. But he is a short-term threat to Donald Brown, who is being vastly overrated. I would sell the moment (if and when) his value reaches anywhere near a first round rookie pick.

A.J. Jenkins: Greg Cosell likes him, the 49ers used a 1st on him, and his cost is peanuts. That's enough for me to jump on board. His value could display itself as early as next season. Moss is ancient, Crabtree is a below average NFL WR, and Manningham is a question mark, still. There's not as much in his way as perception dictates.

Selling:

-Donald Brown: Not a starting RB in the NFL. He didn't get double digit carries until half way through the season and his numbers are skewed by one game. He was fresher than those tackling him. Trade him if you can get low-end RB2 value. Of the 9 games in which he got 10+ carries, he averaged 3.8 YPC, or less in 6 of them (2.9, 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.8).

-Roy Helu: He should be the no-brainer starting RB for the Redskins, if he is what most owners think he is. But he may not be; at the very least, the Redskins don't seem to think he is.

-Brandon Lloyd: He is the 4th option in New England. It was not a positive change in location for Lloyd owners.

-Matthew Stafford: His injury risk has been completely eliminated, according to his current market value. His value is greatly tied to Calvin - and I understand Calvin is young. But when your value relies on another player as much as Stafford's does, the risk doubles. Serious injuries to either of the two greatly hinders Stafford's value. And I don't think we should count on the Lion's throwing so much, year in, year out. That should eventually slow.

-CJ Spiller: When a RB's emergence comes at the end of a season, I question it. I like Spiller's talent as a COP back, but don't think it is a given that he is a 3 down back post-Jackson.

-Willis McGahee: Get whatever you can for him. His production was tied to his carry total, which will take a solid dip. Because he is the week 1 starter, however, owners in your league will give value for him. He is a RB3 this year, and much less starting next season.

 

[Lash]

first off let me say that i value EBF's opinion on players very highly so the below is not a slap at EBF but at the FF community as a whole because it is a consensus community opinion for the most part

JStewart (and those like him) vs DMurray (and those like him)

or in other words...

why do WE as a community hold on so long instead of admitting we were maybe overvaluing them ...vs... why do WE as a community tend to hold on to the beliefs of those undervalued even when they CLEARLY prove us wrong

i'll even go so far as to say that injuries dont factor in the equation because with JStew we will say "well what if he stays healthy this year" and with DMurray we will say "yeah but he will get hurt this year again"

JStew is talented, but gimpy and DeWill is a stud ... yet Jstew will be once again overdrafted because of his name ... his injuries seem of the chronic variety not the fluky

DMurray is a stud, if you watched him as a freshman at Oklahoma you cant deny that, injuries held him back and you couldve gotten him much cheaper than his talent if you paid attention, most of his injuries are not to connective tissues and don't seem of the chronic variety just fluky

i am very interested at when the love dies for JStew and grows for DMurray assuming they have the projected years the experts are saying

will JStew be on a "buy" list in 2013, 2014? will Murray be on a "sell"?

and look at other players ... Ingram etc

NO says they want 200 touches for Ingram this year

read that again slowly 200 TOUCHES for a 1st round pick they traded up for ... he was on pace for MORE than 200 touches last year pre-injury so they are DROPPING his projected touches

in other words "we screwed up that pick"

yet he will be on alot of "buy" lists because of his name and pedigree, we won't admit as a community that we all missed for 2-3 years, even though we watch his body deteriorate and his vision that he was lauded for has him as the 4th best Saints back in YPC (didnt look that up so could be wrong on that but i think thats right)

 

[Concept Coop]

and look at other players ... Ingram etcNO says they want 200 touches for Ingram this yearread that again slowly 200 TOUCHES for a 1st round pick they traded up for ... he was on pace for MORE than 200 touches last year pre-injury so they are DROPPING his projected touchesin other words "we screwed up that pick"yet he will be on alot of "buy" lists because of his name and pedigree, we won't admit as a community that we all missed for 2-3 years, even though we watch his body deteriorate and his vision that he was lauded for has him as the 4th best Saints back in YPC (didnt look that up so could be wrong on that but i think thats right)

Ingram was on pace for 213 touches, so I don't think they are lowering his touch total at all. I think they would be just fine with him getting 215.Ingram's touches will be low because of the offense the Saints run - not because the Saints don't think he is worth what they paid to acquire him. Darren Sproles was the wild card that really threw a wrench in Ingram's usage. I think it is important not to overreact to stuff like that in dynasty leagues. Sproles is 30+, Brees is 30+, Colston is injury prone, and Ingram came into the NFL at 21. Ingram was on pace for 10 TDs and is the goal line back for the best offense in football. The Saints had a very high rushing YPG last season, and if Ingram can earn more of that pie, he'll put up points. Saying this, you could very well be right, and Ingram's situation could affect him long-term, like it has Stewart. It's all about gambles and I don't mind betting on a guy like Ingram. His price is MUCH lower than Stewart's ever was.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

i'll even go so far as to say that injuries dont factor in the equation because with JStew we will say "well what if he stays healthy this year" and with DMurray we will say "yeah but he will get hurt this year again"

JStew is talented, but gimpy and DeWill is a stud ... yet Jstew will be once again overdrafted because of his name ... his injuries seem of the chronic variety not the fluky

DMurray is a stud, if you watched him as a freshman at Oklahoma you cant deny that,injuries held him back and you couldve gotten him much cheaper than his talent if you paid attention, most of his injuries are not to connective tissues and don't seem of the chronic variety just fluky

i am very interested at when the love dies for JStew and grows for DMurray assuming they have the projected years the experts are saying

This post makes zero sense.1.) Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

2.) Murray being devalued due to injury? Hardly. Sure, some yahoo on the board will occasionally throw a comment out there, but in reality he's going as a top-10 RB even in redraft leagues. He's pretty much untouchable in any dynasty league I'm in. Most reasonable people realize that his injury last year was a fluke. I've seen many (myself included) express concern over his high ADP, the lack of team redzone rushes, and the issues on the interior of the Dallas o-line. Injury doesn't even factor in.

At the end of the day, Murray is valued higher by most than Stewart, which is pretty reasonable. They've both shown difference-making talent, and Murray has a clearer path to a starting gig. That doesn't mean it's unreasonable to say Murray is a sell high at his RB1 price, and Stewart is a buy low at his RB3 price.

 

[Concept Coop]

At the end of the day, Murray is valued higher by most than Stewart, which is pretty reasonable. They've both shown difference-making talent, and Murray has a clearer path to a starting gig. That doesn't mean it's unreasonable to say Murray is a sell high at his RB1 price, and Stewart is a buy low at his RB3 price.

Except that Stewart's market value isn't RB3. It is very high RB2 - as it has been (or higher) since he's been drafted. I get what Lash is saying - Stewart was being drafted in the 1st round of startups two years ago. Essentially - how long do we wait for a guy's talent to shine through a tough situation?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

At the end of the day, Murray is valued higher by most than Stewart, which is pretty reasonable. They've both shown difference-making talent, and Murray has a clearer path to a starting gig. That doesn't mean it's unreasonable to say Murray is a sell high at his RB1 price, and Stewart is a buy low at his RB3 price.

Except that Stewart's market value isn't RB3. It is very high RB2 - as it has been (or higher) since he's been drafted. I get what Lash is saying - Stewart was being drafted in the 1st round of startups two years ago. Essentially - how long do we wait for a guy's talent to shine through a tough situation?

No it's not. Check recent dynasty startups and the dynasty trade thread. He's going between 45-50 overall and being traded for stuff like Mike Williams and a late 1st. Stewart was definitely overvalued as a 1st rounder in 2010 startups, but that's not the going rate anymore.

 

[Concept Coop]

At the end of the day, Murray is valued higher by most than Stewart, which is pretty reasonable. They've both shown difference-making talent, and Murray has a clearer path to a starting gig. That doesn't mean it's unreasonable to say Murray is a sell high at his RB1 price, and Stewart is a buy low at his RB3 price.

Except that Stewart's market value isn't RB3. It is very high RB2 - as it has been (or higher) since he's been drafted. I get what Lash is saying - Stewart was being drafted in the 1st round of startups two years ago. Essentially - how long do we wait for a guy's talent to shine through a tough situation?

No it's not. Check recent dynasty startups and the dynasty trade thread. He's going between 45-50 overall and being traded for stuff like Mike Williams and a late 1st. Stewart was definitely overvalued as a 1st rounder in 2010 startups, but that's not the going rate anymore.

RB3 = 25-36 (RB only). 45-50 overall = 3rd to early 4th round. You are not drafting RB3s in that range. You are drafting starters and core players for your team.

 

[MAC_32]

Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

I think looking at games played as proving durability is lazy analysis. He has been limited in camp and practice his entire career due to his foot/achilles. I think DeAng was brought back largely because the Panthers don't trust J Stew to shoulder the load, which also shows up in the stats as J Stew usually only receives a heavy weekly workload when DeAng is out.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

I think looking at games played as proving durability is lazy analysis. He has been limited in camp and practice his entire career due to his foot/achilles. I think DeAng was brought back largely because the Panthers don't trust J Stew to shoulder the load, which also shows up in the stats as J Stew usually only receives a heavy weekly workload when DeAng is out.

Lazy analysis? What matters at end end of the day is what a player does on the field IMO. And Stewart has A.) played, and B.) played well (career 4.8 YPC). We gonna start labeling every guy who gets some rest in the summer or at practice as injury prone?And DeAngelo has gotten carries because he's an absolutely fantastic RB, not because of any deficiency on Stewart's part.

Re-signing DeAngelo is a much more valid anti-Stewart argument, IMO. My personal guess is that they re-signed him based on not knowing at all how NFL-ready Newton was, and with the intention at the time of letting their talented, but very raw franchise QB hand the ball off 500+ times while he learned his craft. Oops by Carolina in hindsight, but then again, I didn't see anyone anywhere that was predicting Newton to have the best rookie QB season ever last summer.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He's been hurt a lot!

But he's actually played 62/64 games?

Yeah, but he's been hurt!

He has a career 4.8ypc and 8.7ypr?

Hurt!

So he's been hurt, but it has had no impact on his play?

Exactly!

 

[MAC_32]

Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

I think looking at games played as proving durability is lazy analysis. He has been limited in camp and practice his entire career due to his foot/achilles. I think DeAng was brought back largely because the Panthers don't trust J Stew to shoulder the load, which also shows up in the stats as J Stew usually only receives a heavy weekly workload when DeAng is out.

Lazy analysis? What matters at end end of the day is what a player does on the field IMO. And Stewart has A.) played, and B.) played well (career 4.8 YPC). We gonna start labeling every guy who gets some rest in the summer or at practice as injury prone?And DeAngelo has gotten carries because he's an absolutely fantastic RB, not because of any deficiency on Stewart's part.

Re-signing DeAngelo is a much more valid anti-Stewart argument, IMO. My personal guess is that they re-signed him based on not knowing at all how NFL-ready Newton was, and with the intention at the time of letting their talented, but very raw franchise QB hand the ball off 500+ times while he learned his craft. Oops by Carolina in hindsight, but then again, I didn't see anyone anywhere that was predicting Newton to have the best rookie QB season ever last summer.

I don't think you're interpreting my lazy analysis comment how I intended. J Stew's been limited in camp and practice his entire career, he has also had his workload in games limited, at least relative to feature work. I would expect a guy in a limited role to have a better chance of staying healthy week-to-week, much less wear + tear on the body. As one of the schmos that over paid for J Stew 2 years ago (mid 2nd) in a dyno startup, obviously I'm enthralled with the talent. In fact, just did another set of dyno rankings and he's still in my top 20, simply because of what he could do if given a full time job. He's probably going to shoot up or down those rankings next year when he's a UFA. That said, there's a reason he hasn't been given an opportunity to showcase his talent in a featured role, at least from Carolina's POV. I think they know something they aren't telling us and reading between the lines it's probably foot related. Otherwise he'd be getting 300 touches/year, if healthy they'd be stupid not to.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

I think looking at games played as proving durability is lazy analysis. He has been limited in camp and practice his entire career due to his foot/achilles. I think DeAng was brought back largely because the Panthers don't trust J Stew to shoulder the load, which also shows up in the stats as J Stew usually only receives a heavy weekly workload when DeAng is out.

Lazy analysis? What matters at end end of the day is what a player does on the field IMO. And Stewart has A.) played, and B.) played well (career 4.8 YPC). We gonna start labeling every guy who gets some rest in the summer or at practice as injury prone?And DeAngelo has gotten carries because he's an absolutely fantastic RB, not because of any deficiency on Stewart's part.

Re-signing DeAngelo is a much more valid anti-Stewart argument, IMO. My personal guess is that they re-signed him based on not knowing at all how NFL-ready Newton was, and with the intention at the time of letting their talented, but very raw franchise QB hand the ball off 500+ times while he learned his craft. Oops by Carolina in hindsight, but then again, I didn't see anyone anywhere that was predicting Newton to have the best rookie QB season ever last summer.

I don't think you're interpreting my lazy analysis comment how I intended. J Stew's been limited in camp and practice his entire career, he has also had his workload in games limited, at least relative to feature work. I would expect a guy in a limited role to have a better chance of staying healthy week-to-week, much less wear + tear on the body. As one of the schmos that over paid for J Stew 2 years ago (mid 2nd) in a dyno startup, obviously I'm enthralled with the talent. In fact, just did another set of dyno rankings and he's still in my top 20, simply because of what he could do if given a full time job. He's probably going to shoot up or down those rankings next year when he's a UFA. That said, there's a reason he hasn't been given an opportunity to showcase his talent in a featured role, at least from Carolina's POV. I think they know something they aren't telling us and reading between the lines it's probably foot related. Otherwise he'd be getting 300 touches/year, if healthy they'd be stupid not to.

Still think you're downplaying DeAngelo Williams with the bolded. He's really, really good.Signed,

The guy who traded up in different years to draft 'em both as rookies in my main league, then got sick of it when DeAngelo re-signed, and moved both of them for Chris Johnson while he was holding out last offseason. :vomit:

 

[joey]

 

[chickensoup]

Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

I think looking at games played as proving durability is lazy analysis. He has been limited in camp and practice his entire career due to his foot/achilles. I think DeAng was brought back largely because the Panthers don't trust J Stew to shoulder the load, which also shows up in the stats as J Stew usually only receives a heavy weekly workload when DeAng is out.

Lazy analysis? What matters at end end of the day is what a player does on the field IMO. And Stewart has A.) played, and B.) played well (career 4.8 YPC). We gonna start labeling every guy who gets some rest in the summer or at practice as injury prone?And DeAngelo has gotten carries because he's an absolutely fantastic RB, not because of any deficiency on Stewart's part.

Re-signing DeAngelo is a much more valid anti-Stewart argument, IMO. My personal guess is that they re-signed him based on not knowing at all how NFL-ready Newton was, and with the intention at the time of letting their talented, but very raw franchise QB hand the ball off 500+ times while he learned his craft. Oops by Carolina in hindsight, but then again, I didn't see anyone anywhere that was predicting Newton to have the best rookie QB season ever last summer.

I don't think you're interpreting my lazy analysis comment how I intended. J Stew's been limited in camp and practice his entire career, he has also had his workload in games limited, at least relative to feature work. I would expect a guy in a limited role to have a better chance of staying healthy week-to-week, much less wear + tear on the body. As one of the schmos that over paid for J Stew 2 years ago (mid 2nd) in a dyno startup, obviously I'm enthralled with the talent. In fact, just did another set of dyno rankings and he's still in my top 20, simply because of what he could do if given a full time job. He's probably going to shoot up or down those rankings next year when he's a UFA. That said, there's a reason he hasn't been given an opportunity to showcase his talent in a featured role, at least from Carolina's POV. I think they know something they aren't telling us and reading between the lines it's probably foot related. Otherwise he'd be getting 300 touches/year, if healthy they'd be stupid not to.

Holy smokes dude. DeAngelo Williams last year: 5.4 YPC Career: 5.1 YPC

JStew last year: 5.4 YPC Career: 4.8 YPC

The edge Stewart has is in the pass game thats it. Both are outstanding, they just happen to be on the same team.

 

[Lash]

i'll even go so far as to say that injuries dont factor in the equation because with JStew we will say "well what if he stays healthy this year" and with DMurray we will say "yeah but he will get hurt this year again"

JStew is talented, but gimpy and DeWill is a stud ... yet Jstew will be once again overdrafted because of his name ... his injuries seem of the chronic variety not the fluky

DMurray is a stud, if you watched him as a freshman at Oklahoma you cant deny that,injuries held him back and you couldve gotten him much cheaper than his talent if you paid attention, most of his injuries are not to connective tissues and don't seem of the chronic variety just fluky

i am very interested at when the love dies for JStew and grows for DMurray assuming they have the projected years the experts are saying

This post makes zero sense.1.) Stewart has played in 62 of a possible 64 games in the NFL. He's not "gimpy," he doesn't have "chronic" injuries. Missing 2 games in four years actually makes him more durable than most NFL RBs.

2.) Murray being devalued due to injury? Hardly. Sure, some yahoo on the board will occasionally throw a comment out there, but in reality he's going as a top-10 RB even in redraft leagues. He's pretty much untouchable in any dynasty league I'm in. Most reasonable people realize that his injury last year was a fluke. I've seen many (myself included) express concern over his high ADP, the lack of team redzone rushes, and the issues on the interior of the Dallas o-line. Injury doesn't even factor in.

At the end of the day, Murray is valued higher by most than Stewart, which is pretty reasonable. They've both shown difference-making talent, and Murray has a clearer path to a starting gig. That doesn't mean it's unreasonable to say Murray is a sell high at his RB1 price, and Stewart is a buy low at his RB3 price.

hehe your post is the one that needs to look at making "sense" because i never compared JStews and DMurray's current ADP to EACH OTHERi compared the JStew is always a "buy" and yet always underperforming ADP (i think his 'earnings' came close ONE year to his ADP) vs DMurray is a stud on a good offense and I have seen him on alot of "sell high" lists, i said nothing about ADP

i havent looked at a yahoo fantasy football message board in at least ten years so cant help there

we do agree on DeWill's talent so we at least have that eh?