[DYNASTY] The Buy / Sell List (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

It kinda sounds like EBF suffers from Logan's Run syndrome (everybody dies when they turn 30).

EBF, you may be exactly correct on value never being higher and the player becoming difficult to trade, etc, but in my experience I don't think its either practical nor sucessful to have nothing but risers and young kids. Most championship teams I see in the large dynasties I play in almost always have a blend. There are some older guys out there that are just rock steady perennially and there is REAL value in that.

The one other thing I don't get is why you say several times that you would rather have Richardson and think he's a better talent. Two reasons:

If you are asessing value, how do you justify the risk of getting on board with a guy who hasn't played a down, on a team that hasn't been an offensive threat in a decade, in lieu of the #1 RB in the league on an offensive juggernaut of a team who is just 25 and is basicallt the exact same age as all the other top 3-4 RBs in the league? Sounds like you empahsize the age a bit too much.

Also, you speak of the "talent" of richardson, but, (vacuum statement), talent really doesn't matter when the reality is the end result of foster's production. It IS debatable, but that's the only thing that is debatable ebcause the proof is that he's been a dominant RB for a few seasons.

Again, I get the gist of how RBs are chewed up and have short lives, etc, but when your FF season starts, it doesn't matter if they have the life cycle of a fruit fly, EVERYONE wants and needs a dominant RB.

 

[Cato]

Good topic.In general, I tend to target certain types of guys as buys:1.) Guys that have recently been arrested. "Character" concerns are totally overblown in dynasty fantasy football IMO. Guys like Kenny Britt, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch are young and have the physical ability to be NFL and fantasy difference makers. Sure, they appear to be thugs / idiots / criminals / whatever you want to call them. Guess what? It really doesn't matter too much. 4 - 6 games (a pretty good suspension) is a tiny fraction of a 8 or 10 year NFL career. I'll take guys like this all day, fully expecting to be without their services for a chunk of games at some point(s), and enjoying the dominant production the rest of the time.2.) Injured players with proven elite ability. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Britt again, Darren McFadden, Welker two years ago, guys like Sidney Rice, Brady after his knee, etc. Medical technology has come a long way in the 20 years I've been playing fantasy football, and very few injuries are truly career-ending. I'll take the proven stud talent all day and wait for the player to heal up. Again, one year represents a pretty small fraction of a guys career, and immediately after a big injury, players tend to be traded for pennies on the dollar.3.) Young highly drafted players who didn't make a big immediate impact. Baldwin and Ingram are the two big ones this year IMO. I'm not totally sold on either one's talent, personally, but the important thing for me is that they were highly drafted by their NFL teams (so they will receive the opportunity) and their value in fantasy is well below where it was a year ago, or should be. Not every rookie is going to come in and light it up right away; that doesn't mean that they won't be good eventually.4.) Old guys. Pretty self-explanatory. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Peyton Manning, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, etc. I worry far more about winning a title now as opposed to exit value in most cases. If I can get solid production for a year or two at a position of need, I'll trade multiple picks or iffy prospects for players like this all day long. There are a ton of owners out there who see an aging player on their roster and think "well, if I don't trade him now, I'll never be able to." A 23 year old scrub is not worth more than a 30+ year old stud just because he's younger.

Agree with all of these. Basically, when bad news happens = crying. When you're crying, you should be buying. Good news happens = yelling. When you're yelling, you should be selling. Obviously akin to a stock market approach, so mis-steps will happen, and it's not a hard fast rule, but it helps buffer the good news or bad news if you think of them potentially as buying or selling opportunities or inflection points in player value to try and capitalize on.

 

[Sabertooth]

Selling: Britt is just trouble. A true loser. Now with major injury concerns to boot. Dump him in a package deal with a guy like Steve Smith and go get AJ Green. Dump him straight up for Mike Wallace once this contract thing drags on a bit.

Britt is going for WAY less than that right now. Zero chance he's a major component in an AJ Green deal right now in any league I'm in.ETA from the dynasty trade thread:Britt for Sidney Rice and a late 2013 1stBritt for Michael Floyd and Josh Gordon

For reference, I had to trade Vincent Jackson, Britt, and Brandon Lloyd for AJ Green. This trade occured on April 24th.

 

[Sabertooth]

The problem with RB's over age 26 is trade value, if you keep a RB up to that point you're probably going to ride him until the wheels come off because it's difficult to find a willing trade partner. Not that it's a bad thing, I just prefer to get value for guys before they crash. i.e. if I had better RB depth I'd have dealt Chris Johnson before last offseason. Not because I think he's nearing the cliff, but there was holdout potential and his value probably is going to only decline from that point. I did not have the adequate depth to sacrifice him for future #1 picks nor could I orchestrate a trade in which I could get a RB I want (and another piece) in return, so I kept him and at this point I probably have him for good.This is how I try to build my dynasty teams, build a quality starting lineup then start sprinkling darts around them and as they hit flip current starters for future #1's and slide the connected darts into the lineup.

Which in turn makes guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner nice targets if you are in the window. I am currently trying to acquire Jackson in a 2QB league on the cheap.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Here's the thing about trading away good RBs.

Their decline is usually so sudden you have to trade them when they're still productive to get anything of value. But then, of course, you're missing out on that productivity.

I think it's one position that if you have a good/elite player, you simply hold him until he retires.

The one caveat, like usual, is "unless you get a ridiculous offer".

 

[az_prof]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year of great success? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.ETA: Same for your eval on Graham. Especially in Dynasty, both are young and have stud QBs for the next 3 years.

I agree with EBF. The difference between Gronk and Gonzo is that Gonzo is an elite physical talent. I don't see Gronk that way. I see him as a very good talent in a great situation. Well, situations can change. And the NE offense always changes. Given how ridiculously high Gronk's value is you can't ignore the possible advantage in selling high. You admit his 2011 is not going to be repeated because it was so extraordinary--hence his value will never be higher. EBF isn't saying "give him away." He is saying take advantage of his career year to get some other very good players or draft picks.

 

[Sabertooth]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year of great success? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.ETA: Same for your eval on Graham. Especially in Dynasty, both are young and have stud QBs for the next 3 years.

I agree with EBF. The difference between Gronk and Gonzo is that Gonzo is an elite physical talent. I don't see Gronk that way. I see him as a very good talent in a great situation. Well, situations can change. And the NE offense always changes. Given how ridiculously high Gronk's value is you can't ignore the possible advantage in selling high. You admit his 2011 is not going to be repeated because it was so extraordinary--hence his value will never be higher. EBF isn't saying "give him away." He is saying take advantage of his career year to get some other very good players or draft picks.

I'm a Gronk owner, and I'm thinking the same thing. His value will never be higher. I am thinking of offering him for the 1.1 and Gates in my 2qb league. I'd take Luck most likely. So Luck and Gates for Gronk.

 

[MAC_32]

The problem with RB's over age 26 is trade value, if you keep a RB up to that point you're probably going to ride him until the wheels come off because it's difficult to find a willing trade partner. Not that it's a bad thing, I just prefer to get value for guys before they crash. i.e. if I had better RB depth I'd have dealt Chris Johnson before last offseason. Not because I think he's nearing the cliff, but there was holdout potential and his value probably is going to only decline from that point. I did not have the adequate depth to sacrifice him for future #1 picks nor could I orchestrate a trade in which I could get a RB I want (and another piece) in return, so I kept him and at this point I probably have him for good.This is how I try to build my dynasty teams, build a quality starting lineup then start sprinkling darts around them and as they hit flip current starters for future #1's and slide the connected darts into the lineup.

Which in turn makes guys like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner nice targets if you are in the window. I am currently trying to acquire Jackson in a 2QB league on the cheap.

If I need a short term option and am sitting on guys like J Stew, Ben Tate, Hillman, LMJ, etc. then yea I like them as a trade targets too. It all depends on the team. I have Chris Johnson and Richardson in one (Tate, Gerhart, Dion Lewis, and LMJ behind them) and won't target a guy like them, but in another I don't have much behind Richardson as I'm sitting on Felix, J Stew, R Bush, and LMJ. I may make a move for one of those types in that league if the opportunity presents itself. I won't give up much for them though, which presents the problem. The Turner or S Jacks owner isn't going to be looking at Bush, he's going to want J Stew or LMJ. I think moving either of them for a rental is a bad idea. A package including Bush and a WR depth piece is what I'd do, but the Turner or S Jacks owners probably won't do. We'll see.Long winded way of saying, if you have the right trade pieces it can work.

 

[todisco1]

Good thread.

I'm buying Donald Brown, Doug Baldwin, Greg Little, Vereen/Ridley.

All these guys are young and IMO have talent that will show on the field this year. Baldwin looks very poised out there and should be a decent ppr option. If I had to pick one NE RB I'd go Vereen, but I probably only feel comfortable with both NE RBs. Also buying VJax if the price is right.

Selling Britt (only if get relatively fair value, otherwise he's a hold), Stafford because I don't think he throws nearly as much as last season, though again, if there isn't value there he's a hold. Robert Meachem if I can get an owner who thinks he'll explode.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The difference between Gronk and Gonzo is that Gonzo is an elite physical talent. I don't see Gronk that way. I see him as a very good talent in a great situation.

I hate to bust this out, but have you really watched the guy? He literally looks like a man among boys out there to me -- totally impossible to cover. Obviously Brady / Pats system is responsible for a big chunk of the 1300 / 18, but IMO Gronk is a Pro Bowl TE for the next devade or so even if he's traded to Jacksonville or Cleveland tomorrow.

 

[Sabertooth]

Good thread.

I'm buying Donald Brown, Doug Baldwin, Greg Little, Vereen/Ridley.

All these guys are young and IMO have talent that will show on the field this year. Baldwin looks very poised out there and should be a decent ppr option. If I had to pick one NE RB I'd go Vereen, but I probably only feel comfortable with both NE RBs. Also buying VJax if the price is right.

Selling Britt (only if get relatively fair value, otherwise he's a hold), Stafford because I don't think he throws nearly as much as last season, though again, if there isn't value there he's a hold. Robert Meachem if I can get an owner who thinks he'll explode.

I'm pumping the brake a bit on Brown. Pagano wants to run a power based rushing attack.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm pumping the brake a bit on Brown.

I love Brown's value in 2012 redrafts because there's really no one else even decent there right now, but don't think he's good enough to lock down that job for a multiyear window.

 

[EBF]

Lots of replies since I went to sleep. Some misc thoughts:

1. Regarding my emphasis on trade value, I think it's important to point out that trade value can be cashed in at any time for production. Take a guy like Jonathan Stewart. Brilliant talent, but really hasn't produced on par with where he's been valued in dynasties the last 3-4 years. In some respects he's been a bust, but his perceived value has remained high, and thus if you owned him you've always had the ability to trade him for a player who's actually producing.

You draft a guy like Foster, Forte, or MJD with your first round pick and you are sacrificing the exit value for the sake of the immediate points. That's all well and fine if you win the league those first couple seasons, but you might come to regret it a year or two down the road when you can no longer move those players for elite value. The reason I'd lean towards a guy like Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, LeSean McCoy, or Trent Richardson is because I think they have a chance to give you a similar short term edge, with a much longer shelf-life. On that note...

2. The thing about buying prospects vs. buying veterans is that you (usually) pay a bit of a premium for security. Think about a guy like Hakeem Nicks or Brandon Marshall. Since they are both established players who have more or less proven that they're reliably effective against NFL defenses, neither of them comes cheap. Or at least not as cheap as they did when they were rookies. Because it usually takes 1-2 years of production before a player is "trusted" by the FF community, the price you pay for buying a proven talent is that you miss out on some of his best years. Ray Rice is a perfect example. Yes, he is a great player, but three of his elite seasons are already behind him. That's a lot. On the flipside, a guy like Trent Richardson has his entire career ahead of him. The added longevity potential helps compensate for the increased risk. And in the rare case of a super-elite bulletproof prospect like Richardson, I feel pretty good about gambling on the next great back instead of using a higher pick on the current great back who's already halfway through his prime.

3. As far as players with character risk go, I have been burned by them enough times that I'm starting to get sick of it. In theory, I agree with the idea that people panic after bad headlines and sell low. The problem is that a lot of these guys are chronic offenders. You buy them thinking you're getting a talent discount, only to be burned when the guy commits another crime or fails another drug test. I would be pretty leery about buying a guy like Dez Bryant or Fred Davis at this point, simply because I don't trust their judgment. Of course they're worth the risk if you could get a discount price, but if you're taking them over players of similar ability who don't have an established knucklehead factor then I think you're making a mistake.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Lots of replies since I went to sleep. Some misc thoughts:

1. Regarding my emphasis on trade value, I think it's important to point out that trade value can be cashed in at any time for production. Take a guy like Jonathan Stewart. Brilliant talent, but really hasn't produced on par with where he's been valued in dynasties the last 3-4 years. In some respects he's been a bust, but his perceived value has remained high, and thus if you owned him you've always had the ability to trade him for a player who's actually producing.

You draft a guy like Foster, Forte, or MJD with your first round pick and you are sacrificing the exit value for the sake of the immediate points. That's all well and fine if you win the league those first couple seasons, but you might come to regret it a year or two down the road when you can no longer move those players for elite value. The reason I'd lean towards a guy like Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, LeSean McCoy, or Trent Richardson is because I think they have a chance to give you a similar short term edge, with a much longer shelf-life. On that note...

2. The thing about buying prospects vs. buying veterans is that you (usually) pay a bit of a premium for security. Think about a guy like Hakeem Nicks or Brandon Marshall. Since they are both established players who have more or less proven that they're reliably effective against NFL defenses, neither of them comes cheap. Or at least not as cheap as they did when they were rookies. Because it usually takes 1-2 years of production before a player is "trusted" by the FF community, the price you pay for buying a proven talent is that you miss out on some of his best years. Ray Rice is a perfect example. Yes, he is a great player, but three of his elite seasons are already behind him. That's a lot. On the flipside, a guy like Trent Richardson has his entire career ahead of him. The added longevity potential helps compensate for the increased risk. And in the rare case of a super-elite bulletproof prospect like Richardson, I feel pretty good about gambling on the next great back instead of using a higher pick on the current great back who's already halfway through his prime.

3. As far as players with character risk go, I have been burned by them enough times that I'm starting to get sick of it. In theory, I agree with the idea that people panic after bad headlines and sell low. The problem is that a lot of these guys are chronic offenders. You buy them thinking you're getting a talent discount, only to be burned when the guy commits another crime or fails another drug test. I would be pretty leery about buying a guy like Dez Bryant or Fred Davis at this point, simply because I don't trust their judgment. Of course they're worth the risk if you could get a discount price, but if you're taking them over players of similar ability who don't have an established knucklehead factor then I think you're making a mistake.

This thread wasn't about who to take in the first round of a start up draft. It was about "buys" and "sells".As to your line "I think it's important to point out that trade value can be cashed in at any time for production", well sure but you are suggesting to trade away production now (and for the next 2-3 years) because of the loss of trade value down the road. That statement does not really address that.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

EBF

are you a "pretty roster" guy or a try and win guy?

 

[MAC_32]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

 

[Tau837]

Norv speaks pretty glowingly about him for a guy who's going to be the 6th option.http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=NFL&id=4853&line=236382&spln=1

Norv Turner said on ESPN's NFL32 last month that Royal is the most impressive player he's coached the past few seasons.

Pure hyperbole? That is a pretty bold statement by Turner. Stands to reason that he'd plan to use Royal.

Norv has also been very complimentary about Gates, Mathews, Meachem, Floyd, and Brown. Just check those threads for the quotes. To me, this is nothing but coachspeak. And it also isn't clear that in this quote he is referring to his play as a WR, as opposed to his special teams play.

While I fully realize that Royal hasn't done anything in years, I also feel like Meachem is a perennial breakout candidate who has...you know...never broken out. I just think he's a mediocrity. Royal might not be anything more than that either, but at least he's had a productive FF season in the past and at least the coach is raving about him. As for the other guys, Floyd is a solid player, but Brown is unproven. There is definitely opportunity for someone to step up here. In terms of cost for upside, I like Royal.

In 2008, Royal had 139 fantasy points and finished as WR20 (FBG scoring). In 2009, Meachem had 134 fantasy points and finished as WR22 (FBG scoring). Essentially no difference. Except that Royal needed 102 touches and 129 targets to reach that performance, whereas Meachem needed just 51 touches and 64 targets.It's also true that Royal's one good year was in 2008. Meachem has been much more productive over the past three seasons.It's a tired refrain about Meachem not having broken out. Look at his situations in New Orleans (which I have described in other threads) and San Diego with an open mind instead of with your mind already made up.Since you seem to be arguing against my comment that he'll be the 6th option in the passing game, do you care to project targets for the players I mentioned? I think if you go through the exercise of doing that, you will quickly realize that Royal's upside is limited due to limited opportunity, unless multiple players ahead of him in the pecking order miss substantial time.

 

[EBF]

EBFare you a "pretty roster" guy or a try and win guy?

Win with a pretty roster. Everyone who's played in leagues with me would say the former, but in my experience my best teams have been built using more of a patient long-term strategy.That's just the approach that seems to work best for me.

 

[Chazzhawk]

Players I am buying.

Quarterbacks

Phillip Rivers - I think he bounces back nicely and will be a top 6 quarterback for the next 4 or 5 years

Micheal Vick - there are very few draft picks in the 4th or 5th round that have the upside to lead their position in scoring

Matt Flynn - can be had cheap right now, has a chance to buy low this year and sell high next.

Jake Locker - looked good in limited time last year, Titans have a lot of weapons too.

T.J. Yates - Schaub is in the last year of his deal.

Running Backs

Ryan Williams - Beanie can't stay healthy and I just don't think is that good

Dan Herron - Can be had cheap, but you must be patient, I think 2014 is his year.

C.J. Spiller - Get him now!

Trent Richardson - Hillis torn it up behind that line, Richardson is far superior to Hillis.

Delone Carter/Vick Ballard - Indy wants a power running game, that favors these two over Brown.

Lamar Miller - I think he passes Thomas before the start of the year and Bush can't stay healthy.

David Wilson - Bradshaw has one year left, if he can stay healthy

Robert Turbin - Lynch is already going to be suspended and maybe one incident away from being shown the door in Seattle.

Kendall Hunter - I like Hunter, and I think James will end up being a Sproles type.

Legarrette Blount - Can be had for pennies right now, word out of Tampa is he is working hard at pass blocking and catching. One year contract

Evan Royster - Can be had for cheap, and ended the year with back to back 100 yard games.

Wide Receiver

Torrey Smith - He has the speed, I think him and Flacco develop together

Alshon Jeffery - I think it is only a year or two before Marshall works his way out of Chicago

Greg Little - yes he had the drops but so did a guy named Terrell Owens. Most rookie receivers don't do what Green and Jones did. Give it time

Eric Decker - He will be Manning's favorite red zone target

Ryan Broyles - I don't believe in Titus Young and Burelson will gone next year

Randall Cobb - Everyone likes him, his breakout is 2013 though

Reggie Wayne - Can be had for cheap and I think he has 3 or 4 good years left.

Nick Toon - Colston can't hold up for too much longer and Toon is a faster verison on Colston

Rueben Randle - The Giants won't be able to pay both Cruz and Nicks, one leaves and opens up the way for Randle

Denarius Moore - He has the talent, him and Palmer clicked well last year when he was healthy

Jeremy Maclin - He ends up being the receiver you want to own in Philly

Doug Baldwin - Looked good last year, I think he will be a cheap mans Welker

Kendall Wright - A lot of us are going to kick ourselves for taking other rookie receivers and running backs ahead of him in this years draft.

Tight Ends

Robert Housler - They just have to get the quarterback spot figured out

Jermaine Gresham - If Dalton avoids the sophomore slump, I think you see Gresham jump into the top 6 tight ends this year

Dwayne Allen - Better blocker than Fleener, I think he ends up being the tight end to own in Indy

Kyle Rudolph - Great redzone receiving threat for a team that lacks a big red zone threat.

Players I am not buying

Quarterback

Tony Romo - He is on the hot seat every year in Dallas and every year he gets older and more injury prone.

Matt Ryan - He might throw the worst deep ball in the league, and his best red zone weapon only has a year or two left

Matt Schaub - I like him in redrafts, but this is a running team and he is in the last year of his deal with Yates waiting for him to leave

Ryan Tannehill - Not enough experience in college, he will be Blaine Gabbert of this draft class

Alex Smith - The first time he has been good in 6 or 7 years in the league, can we say fluke

Running backs

Beaine Wells - too injury prone, and Williams in the wings

Johnathan Stewart - if he does get a starting gig next year he will already be 26 so 3 decent years at most, and that depends on where he goes

Donald Brown - I like him this year, but not long term

Mark Ingram - as long as Brees is there it will be pass first and he doesn't have the skill set to do what Sproles does

Roy Helu - He plays for Shanahan

Jahvid Best - He got the concussion in week 6 last year, training camp is started and he still isn't ready for contact, that is scary

Wide Receivers

Micheal Floyd - Something tells me he just used his raw talent to get by in college, that won't work in the NFL.

Brandon Marshall - Once a moron always a moron, at best you get 2 good years out of him before he is traded or released.

Dez Bryant - Same as Marshall

Demaryius Thomas - I like him but not how high he is being taken, he has never played a full season in the NFL

Titus Young - He is a moron too, even if he does stay on the field he will be boom or bust like Lee Evans was.

Jordy Nelson - He will come back to earth, and next year Cobb starts taking some of his targets.

Robert Meachem - He couldn't pass Devery Henderson on the depth chart, all the receivers in San Diego are better than Henderson

Mike Williams - On a run first team now, and Jackson is the number 1 receiver

Kenny Britt - He is a moron too, and he has injury troubles.

Tight Ends

Greg Olsen - Didn't produce in Chicago, I see him as a solid backup

Jacob Tamme - Dressens seems to have a knack for the end zone, and it will be hard to have him, Decker, and Thomas all putting up numbers.

Coby Fleener - Gut feeling not buying the hype, Allen will be the guy to own.

 

[MAC_32]

For reference sake, what would you do with the 2 below rosters

QB - Rivers (RG3, Mallett)

RB - Chris Johnson, Richardson (B Tate, Toby, LMJ, D Lewis)

WR - Jennings, Dez, Steve Smith (Collie, other Steve Smith, J Gordon, Gettis, Criner, AJ Jenkins)

TE - Gates (Olsen, Cameron, Casey)

QB - Romo (Luck)

RB - Richardson, R Bush, J Stew (LMJ, Felix, Tanner)

WR - A Johnson, Percy (R Moss, Easley, J Simpson, Gettis, E Sanders)

TE - J Cook (M Lewis, Cameron, Casey)

Note: 2nd roster, J Stew is a flex but I am temporarily giving him the leg-up on the WR's

Personally, I don't see many selling opportunities on either of these rosters. Through a series of trades I basically sold Jimmy Graham + Sam Bradford + Bradshaw + Antonio Brown for Richardson + RG3 + a future #1 on roster 1. I think the first roster is better, but both can compete for titles this year. The problem being if I sell any of the younger upside guys on either roster for win-now types I could be looking at problems in a couple of years as my depth is mostly darts. I'd love to flip A Johnson, R Bush, Romo, or Cook on roster 2 but by doing so I'm crippling my team short term and I'm not sure what win-now types I could find that would upgrade the position this year.

 

[EBF]

As to your line "I think it's important to point out that trade value can be cashed in at any time for production", well sure but you are suggesting to trade away production now (and for the next 2-3 years) because of the loss of trade value down the road. That statement does not really address that.

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals. This doesn't mean I would give away a player like Foster or Rice for David Wilson. It means I would move him if I could get a super elite type or prospect who has better longevity potential. Someone like Trent Richardson or Cam Newton. I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

 

[EBF]

Since you seem to be arguing against my comment that he'll be the 6th option in the passing game, do you care to project targets for the players I mentioned? I think if you go through the exercise of doing that, you will quickly realize that Royal's upside is limited due to limited opportunity, unless multiple players ahead of him in the pecking order miss substantial time.

For starters, I think Royal is a better player than Meachem and Brown. So the idea that he's automatically behind them on the depth chart doesn't really jive with me, especially when his own head coach is saying he's the most impressive player he's seen in years. I also think he's fully capable of outproducing Malcom Floyd. So who does that leave? Gates and Mathews? Mathews is only a RB. He will never be the focal point of the passing game. Gates is a great player, but a good TE isn't a death sentence for WR production. Welker/Gronk/Hernandez, Colston/Graham, Jones/Gonzalez, etc. Also, Gates is old enough where his production could fall off a cliff at any moment. Nobody is saying Eddie Royal is a slam dunk lock to save your FF season. As a late round pick that nobody is high on, I'd definitely roll the dice. Cost of acquisition is a big factor in a list like this. It's not like your team will be sunk if you give up a late draft pick or bottom-of-the-roster fodder for Royal and he busts.

 

[MAC_32]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

Peterson's been elite when healthy his entire career.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

 

[MAC_32]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

I disagree, Cleveland's offensive line is just as strong as the 2012 Texans. Everything's there for Richardson to have a big year/career, the difference between big and huge depends on the passing game...so I'm sticking with big because I don't have faith in the 2012 passing game.

 

[EBF]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I hear what you're saying and I think you make some good points. For me...1. I don't have quite as much faith in Foster as you do. I don't want to rehash that debate, but I think even proven commodities have risk sometimes. The idea that he is a lock to produce at his 2010-2011 level for the next 3-5 years seems like a bit of a stretch to me.2. I am SKY HIGH on Richardson. Not to turn this into a hype train thread, but I think he's that rare Ricky-Edge-LT-Peterson type of player who's basically a mortal lock to be a unanimous top 3 dynasty pick in the near future. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. That's just my own personal assessment. I feel like he has a good chance to be the unanimous RB1 in dynasty drafts 2 years from now, and that definitely factors into my thinking when I specifically recommend him over a guy like Foster. I'm willing to take my lumps in the short term to get the more valuable career. 3. Difference makers are important towards winning titles, but in my experience having a team full of solid starters without necessarily having any superstars will still make you a playoff team. Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. So even if I buy the idea that Foster/Rice/Forte have a bid edge over Richardson for the next couple years, I'd argue that the huge edge in potential career length helps tip the scales back in the rookie's favor. It's an interesting debate, really. Would you rather have 3 years of top 3 production or 7 years of top 10 production? Tough to quantify since we don't know exactly how these guys will perform. In this specific case, I'd go with Richardson. If we switch the position to QB or WR, the decision is tougher. I wouldn't trade Calvin for any WR and I would have a really hard time moving Rodgers for Newton. I just happen to have a lot of faith in Richardson, and I'm more paranoid about age at RB than any other position by far.

 

[Captain Hook]

Buying: Carson Palmer. He has at least 4 more seasons in him. He has really nice young talent around him and a really nice management team in place.

....but on a team that is going to be running a lot more this year between DMac and Goodson

 

[Chazzhawk]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

Really? Did you see what a healthy Peyton Hillis did behind that line 2 years ago? Everyone knew that he was running the ball too, because he was their only offense. Richardson has a lot more talent than Hillis.

 

[MAC_32]

That's not exactly what I'm saying. I'm talking about making deals where you get a younger player who has similar short term prospects and vastly superior long term prospects. I'm always open to those deals.

I think both of those guys are capable of winning you a title this year...and next...and the year after that.

Is Richardson likely to outscore a guy like Foster or Rice this year? No, but it's certainly possible and he'll definitely be more valuable in two years.

Richardson is pretty unlikely to finish within about 100 points of Arian Foster for the next few years, assuming both guys are healthy. Cleveland's offense is REALLY bad.

Really? Did you see what a healthy Peyton Hillis did behind that line 2 years ago? Everyone knew that he was running the ball too, because he was their only offense. Richardson has a lot more talent than Hillis.

...and the line is better than the one from 2 years ago. Maybe a little weaker at LG, but many argue Steinbach was on the way down that year. I disagree, but it's what many argue.

 

[EBF]

Richardson is also a great receiver. On a team that will be playing from behind with a weak WR corps, I expect him to rack up a lot of cheap catches.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

Peterson's been elite when healthy his entire career.

Yes he has. He was still 6.5 PPG behind Foster last year, and that's a MASSIVE difference. It's a bigger PPG advantage than that between Peterson and Cedric Benson.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Dan Herron - Can be had cheap, but you must be patient, I think 2014 is his year.

This is backwards. Either 2012 is his year or he is worthless. He is a good buy because Scott and GE are terrible. If he gets any starts this year, sell. They are going to draft Scott's replacement next year, and that player to be named later will be the lead back.\

 

[Tau837]

Since you seem to be arguing against my comment that he'll be the 6th option in the passing game, do you care to project targets for the players I mentioned? I think if you go through the exercise of doing that, you will quickly realize that Royal's upside is limited due to limited opportunity, unless multiple players ahead of him in the pecking order miss substantial time.

For starters, I think Royal is a better player than Meachem and Brown. So the idea that he's automatically behind them on the depth chart doesn't really jive with me, especially when his own head coach is saying he's the most impressive player he's seen in years. I also think he's fully capable of outproducing Malcom Floyd. So who does that leave? Gates and Mathews? Mathews is only a RB. He will never be the focal point of the passing game. Gates is a great player, but a good TE isn't a death sentence for WR production. Welker/Gronk/Hernandez, Colston/Graham, Jones/Gonzalez, etc. Also, Gates is old enough where his production could fall off a cliff at any moment. Nobody is saying Eddie Royal is a slam dunk lock to save your FF season. As a late round pick that nobody is high on, I'd definitely roll the dice. Cost of acquisition is a big factor in a list like this. It's not like your team will be sunk if you give up a late draft pick or bottom-of-the-roster fodder for Royal and he busts.

Pretty much what I figured. You aren't willing to go through the exercise. Probably because it doesn't fit your stance.ETA: Good thread, though.

 

[MAC_32]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

Peterson's been elite when healthy his entire career.

Yes he has. He was still 6.5 PPG behind Foster last year, and that's a MASSIVE difference. It's a bigger PPG advantage than that between Peterson and Cedric Benson.

Peterson was hurt for a lot of last year.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Just asked this on the Audible. Don't know if this thread was here or not already. Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas. Two young guys that have high value right now but so is their upside. We still haven't seen what they are fully capable yet due to lack of playing time for Harvin and injuries/QB play for Thomas. I own both and have turned down some good offers so I'm leaning toward Holding because I don't want to miss out on the upside (is this flawed thinking or just personal preference?) If were talking about treating players as a commodity than selling would probably be the way to go since value is high. I

Been a big Harvin fan since day one, but I think he might finally be a bit overvalued. I would like to have him on my roster as a WR2/WR3, but if people value him as a WR1 then I think it's probably a stretch. It's tough for me to see him consistently producing up to that level. Thomas is more of a wild card. More likely to be a complete bust, but also probably more likely to be a top 5 guy down the road. I have him on a couple of my teams and while I should probably see what kind of offers I could get for him, I just have this nagging hunch that I might regret moving him. A year with Peyton has to be good for his numbers, right? I will probably hold him.

Completely agree on Harvin, I think he just crossed over to the overvalued side. I am buying on Thomas though, the emergence of Decker and the arrival of Manning absolutely helps his value as the deep threat he should be. I would have agreed with you at the beginning of last year, but I saw him do some amazing things during the 2011 season to change my mind. He is also an unproven commodity imo, I think his upside is quite high for this season. I wish I had scooped him up last year when I had the chance in my dynasty league.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

3. Difference makers are important towards winning titles, but in my experience having a team full of solid starters without necessarily having any superstars will still make you a playoff team. Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. So even if I buy the idea that Foster/Rice/Forte have a bid edge over Richardson for the next couple years, I'd argue that the huge edge in potential career length helps tip the scales back in the rookie's favor. It's an interesting debate, really. Would you rather have 3 years of top 3 production or 7 years of top 10 production? Tough to quantify since we don't know exactly how these guys will perform. In this specific case, I'd go with Richardson. If we switch the position to QB or WR, the decision is tougher. I wouldn't trade Calvin for any WR and I would have a really hard time moving Rodgers for Newton. I just happen to have a lot of faith in Richardson, and I'm more paranoid about age at RB than any other position by far.

I totally agree that the specific Foster, Richardson, Cleveland's o-line debates have been hashed out elsewhere. No one is going to change anyone else's mind. The above is a really great topic.I totally agree that the goal is to make the playoffs EVERY year, because in H2H playoffs, anything can happen. I've been playing FF for 20 years, and I've probably won more ugly championships than ones where my team was the favorite on paper at the start of the year. My best team ever, by far, had TD and Faulk combining for 4000 YFS at RB. I hit on every pick, almost went undefeated, lapped the league in total points, and lost in the playoffs to a team that everyone laughed at coming out of the draft. It's happened to all of us.That's exactly why I generally hate giving up a bunch of points in my lineup in the short term, though. Make the playoffs THIS YEAR is almost always priority #1. Obviously there are exceptions, but I'll never take a hit in current production on a decent playoff team for a "probably" a few years down the road.The "3 years of top-3 vs 7 years of top-10" is another really great topic. For me, it would depend on the team. For a "long window team" I'd take the 7 years probably. For a "short window" team, I'd look to maximize now. I forget who made the point on roster "congruence" in the old big dynasty thread, but that was great insight.

 

[AlmightyBert]

I don't see any mention of Sam Bradford as a Buy or Sell. Me personally, I see him as a Buy. I believe that Jeff Fisher can get this team on the right track and start winning. Looking back at his coaching history, it appears that he will not get stuck on just using the run or the pass. For example, in recent history his best asset was the run with Chris Johnson but pre CJ2K, Fisher was pass heavy with McNair. Thoughts?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

Peterson's been elite when healthy his entire career.

Yes he has. He was still 6.5 PPG behind Foster last year, and that's a MASSIVE difference. It's a bigger PPG advantage than that between Peterson and Cedric Benson.

Peterson was hurt for a lot of last year.

You're not usually deliberately obtuse like this. PPG means points per game. And Foster was hurt too. And Foster was 6.2 PPG ahead of Peterson in 2010 too. Situation matters. A lot.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

Peterson's been elite when healthy his entire career.

Yes he has. He was still 6.5 PPG behind Foster last year, and that's a MASSIVE difference. It's a bigger PPG advantage than that between Peterson and Cedric Benson.

Peterson was hurt for a lot of last year.

PPG = points per game

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Would you rather have 3 years of top 3 production or 7 years of top 10 production?

I would take the 3 years of top 3 production and take my chances I could find a top 10 RB to replace my "top 3" guy once he fades away for those other 4 seasons.

 

[MAC_32]

The problem with trading a Rice or Foster for a Richardson is that talent only gets you so far. Richardson might come in and play on a Pro Bowl level right out of the gate, and still never come remotely close to the numbers that Foster is a pretty safe bet to hit for the next 3-5 years. To be a true lap-the-field difference maker, the situation needs to be great as well, and I have very little confidence that Cleveland can quickly morph into a situation where a RB can threaten 2000+ YFS and 15+ TDs. The difference between 2000/15 and 1500/10 is absolutely massive in terms of winning a title NOW. IMO if you have one of the very few guys that can single-handedly deliver a title you ride him to a ring or two and don't worry about 3-5 years down the road. It takes an impossible to predict "perfect storm" of talent, team, system, and luck to create those guys in FF, and you need to hold on to them like grim death.

I think Richardson is better than Adrian Peterson who has been a studly producer regardless of his surrounsings. Usually I wouldn't trade a stud for an unknown (I haven't been overly thrilled with the raw talent in any of the last 3 RB classes), but there are exceptions to every rule.

I know some people will disagree, but I think it's a big mistake to say any rookie IS better than the best RB we've seen in a generation.Also, Peterson kind of proves the point for me. He's a much better RB than Arian Foster (HOF level vs Pro Bowl level, IMO. Compare Foster to Peterson in fantasy PPG the last two years.

Peterson's been elite when healthy his entire career.

Yes he has. He was still 6.5 PPG behind Foster last year, and that's a MASSIVE difference. It's a bigger PPG advantage than that between Peterson and Cedric Benson.

Peterson was hurt for a lot of last year.

You're not usually deliberately obtuse like this. PPG means points per game. And Foster was hurt too. And Foster was 6.2 PPG ahead of Peterson in 2010 too. Situation matters. A lot.

I think you're being too selective in your sampling. AD battled a high ankle sprain before tearing his ACL, that's not factored in raw ppg. There's a much bigger sample of AD to reference as he's been in the league for the better part of a decade. I haven't ran the data, but I'm sure you'll get a different answer if you expand the data set.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

You probably should run the data. Peterson has been remarkably consistent in his career in PPG. The only exception was the Favre renaissance year when he scored 18 TDs. And even in that year, he was significantly behind the Foster's numbers the past two years.

Hypothetically, switch teams for Foster and Peterson. Think their value stays the same? Situation matters.

 

[MAC_32]

You probably should run the data. Peterson has been remarkably consistent in his career in PPG. The only exception was the Favre renaissance year when he scored 18 TDs. And even in that year, he was significantly behind the Foster's numbers the past two years.Hypothetically, switch teams for Foster and Peterson. Think their value stays the same? Situation matters.

I only see one year of Peterson catching more than 40 passes (43 the year with Favre), Foster has 53 and 66 the last 2 years. I think Richardson's involvement in the passing game will more closely resemble Foster, that's the difference I see in their games and why I prefer Richardson to AD - advanced in the passing game. All else is the same.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Would you rather have 3 years of top 3 production or 7 years of top 10 production?

Assuming we actually knew one player was going to finish as #2RB (midpoint of 1-3) for three years, and another was going to finish as the #7RB (midpoint of 4-10) for seven years...The #2 RB has averaged 154pts of VBD a year for the last ten. So three seasons would be 462.The #7 RB has averaged 61pts of VBD a year for the last ten. Seven seasons would be 427.So it's close, but completely ignores the higher bust potential of the unproven prospect compared to an absolutely top tier guy in his prime. No one's a sure thing, but I think most people would agree that the prospects are more often than not the riskier play in this context.I think this also ignores the extra value provided by concentrating the same amount of VBD into fewer years (you're more likely to win a title), but I'm not sure that wouldn't be offset by the longer window for the lower total.

 

[EBF]

The catch for me is that I expect Richardson to eventually have some top 3 seasons of his own. I think his career will be more valuable, overall.

But that's probably enough talk about Richardson for this thread.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

You probably should run the data. Peterson has been remarkably consistent in his career in PPG. The only exception was the Favre renaissance year when he scored 18 TDs. And even in that year, he was significantly behind the Foster's numbers the past two years.Hypothetically, switch teams for Foster and Peterson. Think their value stays the same? Situation matters.

I only see one year of Peterson catching more than 40 passes (43 the year with Favre), Foster has 53 and 66 the last 2 years. I think Richardson's involvement in the passing game will more closely resemble Foster, that's the difference I see in their games and why I prefer Richardson to AD - advanced in the passing game. All else is the same.

Did you think he was a better NFL RB than Peterson and a better fantasy RB than Foster prior to being drafted by the Browns?!?! Pretty clear that this is an example of the dangers of mixing rookie + homer kool aid, but to each his own.Times like this it's hard not to be a "forum bet proposing d-bag."

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The catch for me is that I expect Richardson to eventually have some top 3 seasons of his own. I think his career will be more valuable, overall. But that's probably enough talk about Richardson for this thread.

Probably depends on where he lands in free agency after his rookie deal is up.

 

[MAC_32]

You probably should run the data. Peterson has been remarkably consistent in his career in PPG. The only exception was the Favre renaissance year when he scored 18 TDs. And even in that year, he was significantly behind the Foster's numbers the past two years.Hypothetically, switch teams for Foster and Peterson. Think their value stays the same? Situation matters.

I only see one year of Peterson catching more than 40 passes (43 the year with Favre), Foster has 53 and 66 the last 2 years. I think Richardson's involvement in the passing game will more closely resemble Foster, that's the difference I see in their games and why I prefer Richardson to AD - advanced in the passing game. All else is the same.

Did you think he was a better NFL RB than Peterson and a better fantasy RB than Foster prior to being drafted by the Browns?!?! Pretty clear that this is an example of the dangers of mixing rookie + homer kool aid, but to each his own.Times like this it's hard not to be a "forum bet proposing d-bag."

Yes, feel free to search because I'm sure you'll see posts stating such dating back to preseason 2011. The Peterson part anyway.