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[DYNASTY] The Rookie 100 - 1-50 (1 Viewer)

Bloom

Moderator
The time has come to rank the rookies for upcoming rookie drafts. First, let me say that this is EXTREMELY preliminary - the combine, pro days, and most importantly, the draft, will shake these rankings up. Many of these players are extremely close in value without knowing their situation, so I'll indicate tiers to group those players together. The rankings are not predictions of where they would go in rookie drafts today - they are not "consensus", they are my personal rankings. These rankings are also somewhat half-baked because I am still forming my final opinions on these players - every time I look at them, I flip a few players rankings.

These rankings assume full IDP lineups with DE/DT and CB/S broken out. They also assume TE required. I will have much more detailed writeups of these guys in future versions, for now I just want to get rankings out there for folks with early rookie drafts. PLEASE feel free to chime in and question my rankings, the point of this is to get discussions going on the 06 rookies value.

Link to 51-100

1. Reggie Bush, RB, USC - Believe the hype. Marshall Faulk with a 5th gear. He will be the centerpiece of the offense wherever he ends up.

2. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis - Cemented his franchise RB status with a near spotless week at the Senior Bowl. Some questions about his ability to run inside, but looks like a natural feature back in all other aspects of his game.

3. LenDale White, RB, USC - One of the best north-south RB prospects in a long time. Situation could vault him over Williams. If he ends up on a winning team, 20+ TDs is not out of the question.

4. Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - Could end up with the best situation of the top 4 RBs. Word out of his camp is that his 40 time will surprise at the combine.

5. Vince Young, QB, Texas - Great runner at QB, but not a run-first QB. Should be top 10 at worst, with top 3-5 upside. Even if he completely busts as a QB, he will be an elite NFL WR.

** end tier 1** (I feel like all 5 of these guys will be elite for fantasy sooner or later)

6. Brian Calhoun, RB, Wisconsin - Burner who runs tough for a little guy. Like Maroney, could end up in best immediate situation. Probably not a true feature back, but could definitely be a Dunn/Garner type for fantasy.

7. Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St - Speedy WR who also can play physical. Surest thing at WR in the draft, but lacks unlimited upside of elite prospects in previous years.

8. Matt Leinart, QB, USC - Lacks the big arm and running ability to break the elite tier of fantasy QBs, but will be a solid starting fantasy QB (See: Brees, Pennington) at worst.

9. Chad Jackson, WR, Florida - Has the size/speed combo to be a true #1. Biggest upside of any WR in this draft.

10. Maurice Drew, RB, UCLA - Poor man's Reggie Bush. Great 40 time at combine could move him up a few spots.

11. Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland - Ben Watson-esque freak of nature, but more physical than Watson.

12. Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA - Basically an oversized WR at TE. Will be featured in the passing attack whereever he lands. Some are souring on him because of lack of speed. Showed better than advertised blocking in the Senior Bowl.

13. A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St. - A surefire stud LB. I won't argue with him in the single digits if you need an LB badly.

14. Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - Versatile RB, situation is crucial - can he be a full time RB? Had good week at Senior Bowl practices.

15. Jerome Harrison, RB, WSU - Small, elusive back, lacks breakaway speed - like Addai, situation plays a huge part in his eventual ranking. Overcame doubts at Senior Bowl weigh-in with tremendous work on the final drive of the game.

16. Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - Athleticism and cannon gives him more fantasy upside than Leinart, but he carries much more risk. Mixed reviews of Senior Bowl practices.

** end tier 2 ** (tier 2 is thick and VERY close in value - You could completely scramble the 6-16 rankings, and I wouldnt argue)

17. Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami-FL - Will be a stud IF he refines his WR skills. Looked like fastest guy at the Senior Bowl.

18. Demetrius Williams, WR, Oregon - Big play potential to hang with any WR in the draft, but needs to bulk up and become more physical to succeed. Showed great hands in Senior Bowl practices.

19. Dominique Byrd, TE, USC - Underused at USC, can do damage downfield as well as any TE in the draft. Senior Bowl boosted his stock.

20. Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa - Projects as 4-3 WLB, should put up big time tackle numbers. Impressed in Senior Bowl practices

21. Brandon Marshall, WR, C Fla - I know I'm not the only one to have drank the kool aid on this big, physical WR. Dominant in the postseason.

** end tier 3 ** (these guys will be solid producers no matter what and could be studs)

22. Jerious Norwood, RB, Miss St - Norwood=Speed - Willie parker-type who could pay off in the right situation.

23. Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green - Has the tools to be an elite fantasy QB. Could be great value coming off down year.

24. D'Qwell Jackson, LB, Maryland - Should be a QB of the defense MLB, or 4-3 WLB. Had terrific week at Senior Bowl.

25. Abdul Hodge, LB, Iowa - Big thumper in the middle should rack up tackles.

26. Greg Lee, WR, Pitt - Stock would have been a lot higher at end of last year. One of the few WR in this draft with potential to be the #1 WR on his team.

27. Jonathan Orr, WR, Wisconsin - Size/speed package to hang with any WR in the draft, but he's a project (severely underused at Wisconsin) and needs to become more consistent. Had up and down week at EW Shrine before getting hurt.

28. Ernie Sims, LB, FL St - As a 4-3 chase WLB, Sims could put up stats with any LB in the draft. Could move up 10 spots in the right situation.

29. Todd Watkins, WR, BYU - Track star type size/speed deep threat WR could become Ashley Lelie or could become Todd Pinkston. Shook off bad year with great week at EW Shrine game.

30. Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame - Really enhanced stock at Senior Bowl by dropping weight and showing good hands. Won't be a gamebreaker, but projects as a solid NFL WR.

** end tier 4 ** (these guys have upside to be very valuable, but have more questions/less elite tools than the tier 3 guys)

31. Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St. - The most dependable WR in this draft. Won't wow you with tools, but always gets the job done. Had great EW Shrine Game performance.

32. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia - This ranking will shock people, but I am down on Pope as a fantasy TE. He just seems stiff, not so much a big play guy or featured target. However, he will still be a useful fantasy TE at worst.

33. DeMeco Ryans, LB - The LB version of Hass. Lack of elite athleticism caps his upside, but he will be productive at the next level. Lack of top end speed/size/strength really showed at Senior Bowl. Could go up a tier with good combine #s.

34. Martin Nance, WR, Miami-OH - Big target seemed tentative in the Senior Bowl. Still has latent upside coming off 2004 ACL tear. Combine 40 time will be huge for him.

** end tier 5 ** (these guys will be solid fantasy contributors, but will never be top producers)

35. Taurean Henderson, RB, Texas Tech - Already one of the best receiving RBs in the draft, Henderson showed solid ability to run out of an I formation in the EW shrine game. Great sleeper RB.

36. De'Arrius Howard, RB, Arkansas - My favorite sleeper RB. Backup for the Hogs, but has the size/speed/inside running combo to be successful in the NFL. Blew away the competition all week at the Shrine Game.

37. Kai Parham, LB, Virginia - May have come out a year early, but has a vicious size/speed combo for an LB. Everyone's looking for him to run a sub 4.7 40 at the Combine.

38. Travis Wilson, WR, Oklahoma - Another favorite sleeper at WR - has the athleticism to be a good NFL WR. Overshadowed at Oklahoma, and banged up this year. The Senior Bowl week showed that Wilson needs refinement, but that he also has the tools to be a quality NFL WR.

** end tier 6 ** (these guys are boom/bust types that could outproduce many above them on the list, but could also return very little on investment of a pick)

39. Leon Washington, RB, Florida St - Has elite pass catching skills out of the backfield, but durability/size issues seem to indicate that he won't be able to be a feature back. Very impressive all week at the Shrine Game.

40. Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona - Productive as any WR in this draft in college, but I just can't get excited about guys like Hagan - very limited upside. Hands were suspect all week at the Senior Bowl.

41. Greg Jennings, WR, Western Michigan - Very solid smallish WR lacking top end speed. Explosive at WMU, but seemed average athletically in EW Shrine WR group.

42. Manny Lawson, OLB/DE, NC St. - Long frame, leaping ability, and closing speed will give QBs nightmares. Pure football upside with LBs above him, but will be stuck at 3-4 OLB, which is not a high tackle position. Really made a splash all week at the Senior Bowl

43. Mario Williams, DE, NC St - Has a chance to be a top 5-10 DE with his elite tools, but DEs are not a premium in most IDP dynasty leagues. I could see taking him 10-15 picks higher if you need a DE badly, or your league rewards sacks heavily.

44. Darnell Bing, S, USC - Very similar to Mario Williams - the elite option with top 10 upside at a position which doesnt carry a real premium in IDP leagues.

** end tier 7 ** (quality players with fantasy value upside caps)

45. Paul Pinegar, QB, Fresno St. - Really an ideal WCO QB with his size, smarts, and arm. Had impeccable week of practice at Shrine Game, but played badly in the actual game.

46. DonTrell Moore, RB, New Mexico - So productive in college and a natural runner, and I love his tenacity in the return from ACL surgery in only 9 months, but just not fast or elusive enough for a smallish back all week at the Shrine Game. Latent upside because he's still in the 2 year window of ACL recovery.

47. Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St - Like Lawson, Carpenter could be as good a football player as many LBs above him on this list, but he seems destined to be a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 SLB, which does not bode well for fantasy.

48. Brandon Williams, WR, Wisconsin - A smallish WR that lacks top end speed to mitigate size questions. Similar to Greg Jennings, but smaller and less consistent. Had brilliant start to EW Shrine Game week, but was barely heard from in the game.

49. Hank Baskett, WR, New Mexico - Big physical jumpball lovin' WR had disastrous week at the Senior Bowl, looking slow and stiff. Needs good combine to restore first day status.

50. Reggie McNeal, QB, Texas A&M - I don't think he'll make it a QB, but guys who are over 6 feet and can run in the 4.4 range don't grow on trees - could be a great WR down the line. Had erratic week at Shrine practices, but was the clear star of the game.

 
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-OZ-

Footballguy
Great stuff bloom!

I'm not convinced that the right place to end tier 1 is after Young, but it's arguable. I'd place him just above Leinart, in tier 2. But I can completely understand your thinking.

 

Patoons

Footballguy
Awesome list... nice work Bloom... not to be nit-picky, but Calhoun is from UW, not USC.

Personally, I think Addai should be higher. He's got great hands and showed some nice flashes this year. I agree with you that the main question is if he can handle a full load-

I think he's a better prospect than Drew at this point. I don't think Drew will be able to use his speed as well on the next level. I think he's looking at more of a third-down role.

 
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Bloom

Moderator
Awesome list... nice work Bloom... not to be nit-picky, but Calhoun is from UW, not USC
ah typo - will fix. i was using bush's line as the paste for each new entry.
 

offdee

Footballguy
Great post Bloom, and have no problem with your rankings....just some info in regards to the comment about Brian Calhoun that he "runs tough for a little guy". I guess it's all relative to what one would consider "a little guy", but according to this he's basically the same size as DeAngelo Williams.

---------------------

According to his coaches, he already is 205. 206 to be exact. He's shooting for 208 and a sub 4.4 at the combine.

Calhoun is listed at 5-foot-10, 194 pounds on UW’s official roster, but outgoing Badger running backs coach Brian White said in August that Calhoun actually weighed 203 pounds.

Koch reiterated that Monday.

“He thinks his stock is only going to rise in the combines because he played the bowl game at 206 (pounds),” Koch said. “People don’t realize that but he was 206 on the nose for the bowl game. He plans to be 208 for the combines. He said, ‘I was never 194, I don’t know why they listed me at that.’”

http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=180&p=2&c=487318

 

MPhilly03

Footballguy
36. De'Arrius Howard, WR, Arkansas - My favorite sleeper RB. Backup for the Hogs, but has the size/speed/inside running combo to be successful in the NFL. Blew away the competition all week at the Shrine Game.
Bloom- greatly respect and appreciate your work so my curiousity was piqued when I read about your favorite sleeper RB. I am confused though since you also note that he is a WR. Is this a player who likely switch positions in the NFL? Any insight you can provide would be appreciated. Thanks!

 

offdee

Footballguy
36. De'Arrius Howard, WR, Arkansas - My favorite sleeper RB. Backup for the Hogs, but has the size/speed/inside running combo to be successful in the NFL. Blew away the competition all week at the Shrine Game.
Bloom- greatly respect and appreciate your work so my curiousity was piqued when I read about your favorite sleeper RB. I am confused though since you also note that he is a WR. Is this a player who likely switch positions in the NFL? Any insight you can provide would be appreciated. Thanks!
Nope, just a typo. Howard is a big, bruising, move the chains type of RB....so no chance he sees time at WR.
 

Bloom

Moderator
Great post Bloom, and have no problem with your rankings....just some info in regards to the comment about Brian Calhoun that he "runs tough for a little guy". I guess it's all relative to what one would consider "a little guy", but according to this he's basically the same size as DeAngelo Williams.

---------------------

According to his coaches, he already is 205. 206 to be exact. He's shooting for 208 and a sub 4.4 at the combine.

Calhoun is listed at 5-foot-10, 194 pounds on UW’s official roster, but outgoing Badger running backs coach Brian White said in August that Calhoun actually weighed 203 pounds.

Koch reiterated that Monday.

“He thinks his stock is only going to rise in the combines because he played the bowl game at 206 (pounds),” Koch said. “People don’t realize that but he was 206 on the nose for the bowl game. He plans to be 208 for the combines. He said, ‘I was never 194, I don’t know why they listed me at that.’”

http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=180&p=2&c=487318
wow did not know his weight was off by that much - that is a significant amount - thanks for setting me straight.
 

Bloom

Moderator
36. De'Arrius Howard, WR, Arkansas - My favorite sleeper RB. Backup for the Hogs, but has the size/speed/inside running combo to be successful in the NFL. Blew away the competition all week at the Shrine Game.
Bloom- greatly respect and appreciate your work so my curiousity was piqued when I read about your favorite sleeper RB. I am confused though since you also note that he is a WR. Is this a player who likely switch positions in the NFL? Any insight you can provide would be appreciated. Thanks!
Nope, just a typo. Howard is a big, bruising, move the chains type of RB....so no chance he sees time at WR.
thanks for replying on that offdee - he is right, just a typo. my copy and paste skills were a little rough this morning.
 

Bloom

Moderator
Awesome list... nice work Bloom... not to be nit-picky, but Calhoun is from UW, not USC.

Personally, I think Addai should be higher. He's got great hands and showed some nice flashes this year. I agree with you that the main question is if he can handle a full load-

I think he's a better prospect than Drew at this point. I don't think Drew will be able to use his speed as well on the next level. I think he's looking at more of a third-down role.
Drew vs. Addai vs. Harrison is really really tough for me right now. I think Drew's small stature will be compensated for by how thick his build is - similar to DeAngelo. Guys with the 5'8"-5'9" 205ish builds have succeeded. Harrison is truly a small back, but is very elusive. Addai looks the most like a feature back, but has never carried the load. Situation will likely determine the final order of these guys.
 

beto

Footballguy
Great to see the draft talk start up again.

Here are the rankings I question.

14. Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - Versatile RB, situation is crucial - can he be a full time RB? Had good week at Senior Bowl practices.

He may have had a good week of practice but he was pedestrian in the game. He did show some nice running in LSU's bowl game so I was expecting him to stand out at the Senior Bowl. I would drop him into the bottom of your 3rd tier because of that. I'd be willing to bet he is now a 4th rounder in scout's eyes.

18. Demetrius Williams, WR, Oregon - Big play potential to hang with any WR in the draft, but needs to bulk up and become more physical to succeed. Showed great hands in Senior Bowl practices.

I haven't seen much from this guy either. He will have to put up some numbers at the combine for me to buy into this ranking. He is WR 6 or 7 on my board and that is only because some of you like him. I'm guessing he is also a 2nd day pick.

30. Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame - Really enhanced stock at Senior Bowl by dropping weight and showing good hands. Won't be a gamebreaker, but projects as a solid NFL WR.

31. Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St. - The most dependable WR in this draft. Won't wow you with tools, but always gets the job done. Had great EW Shrine Game performance.

I would put Stovall and Hass into the 20-25 range. I really like what they did in the All-Star games.

32. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia - This ranking will shock people, but I am down on Pope as a fantasy TE. He just seems stiff, not so much a big play guy or featured target. However, he will still be a useful fantasy TE at worst.

He looks stiff because he is so tall. I would bump him up a few notches. Player to watch at the combine. Georgia has put out some top TEs the last few years.

Some guys you left off that I like include Tim Day, Joe Klopfenstein and even thought Diesel doesn't like him, Gerald Riggs JR.

 

fosio

Footballguy
Great stuff Bloom. Always look forward to reading it and seeing the changes made to it throughout the off-season!

:thumbup:

By the way, not sure if you've done it or not, but have you gone back through your final Rookie (Dynasty) 100 rankings from last year and posted evaluations of your rankings after a full season has been played to see how things turned out?

 
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Bloom

Moderator
Great stuff Bloom. Always look forward to reading it and seeing the changes made to it throughout the off-season!

:thumbup:

By the way, not sure if you've done it or not, but have you gone back through your final Rookie (Dynasty) 100 rankings from last year and posted evaluations of your rankings after a full season has been played to see how things turned out?
I did a final 50, but never got around to the 51-100. my rankings changed weekly during the training camps, and sadly i did not do a good job of archiving past ranks to compare to final season-end ranks - i plan on being much better about that this year, keeping a separate spreadsheet with each players rank in each edition.
 

Bloom

Moderator
Great to see the draft talk start up again.

Here are the rankings I question.

14. Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - Versatile RB, situation is crucial - can he be a full time RB? Had good week at Senior Bowl practices.

He may have had a good week of practice but he was pedestrian in the game. He did show some nice running in LSU's bowl game so I was expecting him to stand out at the Senior Bowl. I would drop him into the bottom of your 3rd tier because of that. I'd be willing to bet he is now a 4th rounder in scout's eyes.

18. Demetrius Williams, WR, Oregon - Big play potential to hang with any WR in the draft, but needs to bulk up and become more physical to succeed. Showed great hands in Senior Bowl practices.

I haven't seen much from this guy either. He will have to put up some numbers at the combine for me to buy into this ranking. He is WR 6 or 7 on my board and that is only because some of you like him. I'm guessing he is also a 2nd day pick.

30. Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame - Really enhanced stock at Senior Bowl by dropping weight and showing good hands. Won't be a gamebreaker, but projects as a solid NFL WR.

31. Mike Hass, WR, Oregon St. - The most dependable WR in this draft. Won't wow you with tools, but always gets the job done. Had great EW Shrine Game performance.

I would put Stovall and Hass into the 20-25 range. I really like what they did in the All-Star games.

32. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia - This ranking will shock people, but I am down on Pope as a fantasy TE. He just seems stiff, not so much a big play guy or featured target. However, he will still be a useful fantasy TE at worst.

He looks stiff because he is so tall. I would bump him up a few notches. Player to watch at the combine. Georgia has put out some top TEs the last few years.

Some guys you left off that I like include Tim Day, Joe Klopfenstein and even thought Diesel doesn't like him, Gerald Riggs JR.
Honestly, I have never been that high on Addai, however he is in position to be a first day RB, and possibly go to a team with a long term need at RB - with the RB premium, thats makes him top 15. I agree that he was pretty much non-existant in the actual game, but the practices carry more weight.Williams has that "it' quality for making big plays, I don't know how else to put it. As long as he bulks up, he'll be productive in the NFL.

I really like Hass and Stovall as NFL prospects, much more than for fantasy. I just don't see how guys with their skill sets will ever crack the elite, but Im more than willing to listen to arguments.

I know Im too hard on Pope - he just never jumped out at me as a big play guy at the next level - he could easily be 10 spots higher (close to Byrd) and I wouldnt protest.

Day and Klop were real close to the cutoff. I dont like Riggs at all, and right now he's not even in my top 100. :eek:

 

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
awesome job, bloom...

you are quickly becoming a mel kiper mini-me... without the bad hair (actually, i have never seen your hair... but the chance of it being worse on average i would reckon as comparable to that of a 400 lb OL running a 4.4 at the combine in the next few years)...

like oz, i would include leinert in top tier... with his success in college, coupled with the "most polished QB since manning" scout buzz, it would be hard for me to keep him out... his arm has been questioned... but that concern is mitigated by the fact that manning's was also... i have also heard scouts say he is more pro-ready than carson palmer.

i am divided on VY/ML... my scouting spidey sense is tantalized by young's ceiling... but my rational mind can't overlook the extremely high floor that leinert represents.

also, i might cheat up vernon davis a little if he is as good as advertised (though i agree you pegged him right in tier two)... as you already noted, so much is contingent on combine, workouts & draft destination... this list will mutate & evolve more than the pre-shoot script for plan 9 from outer space (what pre-shoot script? :) )...

i didn't look as much at later tiers & IDPs... i do think mario williams & darnell bing may move up before the season... but as you said, it depends on league needs & scoring systems... DEs can take a few years to mature & develope... safeties seem to have more opportunity to make an impact earlier, for learning curve difference reasons we could probably speculate about...

but that is nitpicking... again, OUTSTANDING rookie analysis!

 

Bloom

Moderator
awesome job, bloom...

you are quickly becoming a mel kiper mini-me... without the bad hair (actually, i have never seen your hair... but the chance of it being worse on average i would reckon as comparable to that of a 400 lb OL running a 4.4 at the combine in the next few years)...
my hair is pretty bad, but in a completely different way than kiper's
like oz, i would include leinert in top tier... with his success in college, coupled with the "most polished QB since manning" scout buzz, it would be hard for me to keep him out... his arm has been questioned... but that concern is mitigated by the fact that manning's was also... i have also heard scouts say he is more pro-ready than carson palmer.

i am divided on VY/ML... my scouting spidey sense is tantalized by young's ceiling... but my rational mind can't overlook the extremely high floor that leinert represents.
the problem i have with leinart in the top tier is that i just dont see any way he produces elite stats. I see his statistical ceiling as Brady, and while Brady was top 5 in a lot of leagues this year, that was because they had no running game to speak of.
also, i might cheat up vernon davis a little if he is as good as advertised (though i agree you pegged him right in tier two)... as you already noted, so much is contingent on combine, workouts & draft destination... this list will mutate & evolve more than the pre-shoot script for plan 9 from outer space (what pre-shoot script? :) )...
I really like Davis, heck I like all of those guys in the 6-16 tier. Honestly I could rank them again right now and it would be different. The only reason he's below those others right now is because I see his statistical upside as Crumpler, and the statistical upside for the guys ahead of him are guys worth more than Crumpler. That's how arbitrary ranking that tier is for me right now.
i didn't look as much at later tiers & IDPs... i do think mario williams & darnell bing may move up before the season... but as you said, it depends on league needs & scoring systems... DEs can take a few years to mature & develope... safeties seem to have more opportunity to make an impact earlier, for learning curve difference reasons we could probably speculate about...

but that is nitpicking... again, OUTSTANDING rookie analysis!
The main reason bing and williams are so low is that unless a DE or S is just ridiculous (polamalu, peppers), they dont even crack the top 100 of initial dynasty drafts. its hard for even the stud S/DE to have more value than speculative WRs and RBs, and solid TEs and QBs.thanks for the kind words :thumbup:

 

beto

Footballguy
Honestly, I have never been that high on Addai, however he is in position to be a first day RB, and possibly go to a team with a long term need at RB - with the RB premium, thats makes him top 15. I agree that he was pretty much non-existant in the actual game, but the practices carry more weight.

Williams has that "it' quality for making big plays, I don't know how else to put it. As long as he bulks up, he'll be productive in the NFL.

I really like Hass and Stovall as NFL prospects, much more than for fantasy. I just don't see how guys with their skill sets will ever crack the elite, but Im more than willing to listen to arguments.

I know Im too hard on Pope - he just never jumped out at me as a big play guy at the next level - he could easily be 10 spots higher (close to Byrd) and I wouldnt protest.

Day and Klop were real close to the cutoff. I dont like Riggs at all, and right now he's not even in my top 100. :eek:
Addai - :lmao: that neither of us like him...if he goes somewhere decent he could move up a few more spots, but if he goes in the 4th or later he will drop like a stone.Williams - You say he has "it". again, even if he gets drafted into an ideal sport, the #18 spot is as high as he will get.

Hass and Stovall appeal to me because this seems like a weak WR class and they have the work ethic to climb through the ranks in a couple of years or so.

Another guy I thought of that is a sleeper is Marques Colston.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Honestly, I have never been that high on Addai, however he is in position to be a first day RB, and possibly go to a team with a long term need at RB - with the RB premium, thats makes him top 15. I agree that he was pretty much non-existant in the actual game, but the practices carry more weight.

Williams has that "it' quality for making big plays, I don't know how else to put it. As long as he bulks up, he'll be productive in the NFL.

I really like Hass and Stovall as NFL prospects, much more than for fantasy. I just don't see how guys with their skill sets will ever crack the elite, but Im more than willing to listen to arguments.

I know Im too hard on Pope - he just never jumped out at me as a big play guy at the next level - he could easily be 10 spots higher (close to Byrd) and I wouldnt protest.

Day and Klop were real close to the cutoff. I dont like Riggs at all, and right now he's not even in my top 100.  :eek:
Addai - :lmao: that neither of us like him...if he goes somewhere decent he could move up a few more spots, but if he goes in the 4th or later he will drop like a stone.Williams - You say he has "it". again, even if he gets drafted into an ideal sport, the #18 spot is as high as he will get.

Hass and Stovall appeal to me because this seems like a weak WR class and they have the work ethic to climb through the ranks in a couple of years or so.

Another guy I thought of that is a sleeper is Marques Colston.
Im high on Colston after watching him all week at the shrine game. he came close to cracking the top 50.
 

Bloom

Moderator
32. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia - This ranking will shock people, but I am down on Pope as a fantasy TE. He just seems stiff, not so much a big play guy or featured target. However, he will still be a useful fantasy TE at worst.

He looks stiff because he is so tall. I would bump him up a few notches. Player to watch at the combine. Georgia has put out some top TEs the last few years.
Another thought on Pope - yes the stiffness may be a by product of his height, but Marcedes Lewis is almost as tall, and seems a lot more fluid to me as a receiver - just my .02
 

wannabee

Footballguy
Great work, Bloom, per usual. My questions mainly rate toward the WRs and TEs. Most of us have definite opinions on the pecking order of the QBs and RBs -> esp. the first 5-7 of each.

WRs:I think many agree that Holmes is the number one guy now, but also I do not think many people think that he will be the best WR in five years. It is almost as though he looks the part the most so we use him as the default. Who do you think, without knowing destination (a biggie), will be the top 3-5 WRs in five years? A guy like CJackson or guys like Williams, Nance or Marshall could very well be THE GUY. Who do you, and others think will stand out in a few years?

TE:

I think each of the top 4-7 guys could be a star. I say top 7 because you never know where a guy like Mills (HBack) or Thomas gets in the right situation and excels. I do agree with the Lewis and Davis picks. But, a case can also be made for Pope or Byrd. I have been a big Pope guy for a while because of all he brings to the table. Lewis and Davis, admittedly, are more fluid as receivers and should excel. We are just now learning more and more about Byrd. We fantasy guys look at things through fantasy glasses. Situation will matter a lot. I am reminded of how Gonzo (a stud ff TE) had to stay in to block a lot this year, thus reducing his ff value. But, his NFL value probably was higher than in years past. I very well can see a guy like Mills, Klop, or Thomas surpassing these higher rated guys just due to situation. Think about what happens if a decent pass-catching TE goes to SF or Hou. They instantly become the second receiving option. I have been high on Mills for a while. 1200 yards in a season is a ton. He could be a flash in the pan, but in the right situation, we could be looking at another Cooley.

Sorry for the length of this. I think the top TE to go to Cinn, Car, Chi, Jax, or Hou might be the top guy. Also, you never know when Shanny will go TE in the 2nd for a Sharpe-type guy. He was effective. In my mind, the situation will dictate the rankings of TEs as much as any, or more, position. I applaud Bloom for putting out this ranking before the combine. Much will change by then.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Great work, Bloom, per usual. My questions mainly rate toward the WRs and TEs. Most of us have definite opinions on the pecking order of the QBs and RBs -> esp. the first 5-7 of each.

WRs:I think many agree that Holmes is the number one guy now, but also I do not think many people think that he will be the best WR in five years. It is almost as though he looks the part the most so we use him as the default. Who do you think, without knowing destination (a biggie), will be the top 3-5 WRs in five years? A guy like CJackson or guys like Williams, Nance or Marshall could very well be THE GUY. Who do you, and others think will stand out in a few years?
Jackson, Marshall, and Lee are the guys I see with the best chance of being "the man" for their passing attack.
TE:

I think each of the top 4-7 guys could be a star. I say top 7 because you never know where a guy like Mills (HBack) or Thomas gets in the right situation and excels. I do agree with the Lewis and Davis picks. But, a case can also be made for Pope or Byrd. I have been a big Pope guy for a while because of all he brings to the table. Lewis and Davis, admittedly, are more fluid as receivers and should excel. We are just now learning more and more about Byrd. We fantasy guys look at things through fantasy glasses. Situation will matter a lot. I am reminded of how Gonzo (a stud ff TE) had to stay in to block a lot this year, thus reducing his ff value. But, his NFL value probably was higher than in years past. I very well can see a guy like Mills, Klop, or Thomas surpassing these higher rated guys just due to situation. Think about what happens if a decent pass-catching TE goes to SF or Hou. They instantly become the second receiving option. I have been high on Mills for a while. 1200 yards in a season is a ton. He could be a flash in the pan, but in the right situation, we could be looking at another Cooley.

Sorry for the length of this. I think the top TE to go to Cinn, Car, Chi, Jax, or Hou might be the top guy. Also, you never know when Shanny will go TE in the 2nd for a Sharpe-type guy. He was effective. In my mind, the situation will dictate the rankings of TEs as much as any, or more, position. I applaud Bloom for putting out this ranking before the combine. Much will change by then.
Mills, Klop, Thomas, Fasano, and Day are all in the 50-75 range, and you're absolutely right - situation could boost them as many as 30 spots if they go to a team that plans to use them a top receiving option. Theyre low now because they dont have the top end receiving talent that the top 4 have, but if asked to, they can put up numbers (especially Mills)
 

noneother

Footballguy
love the stuff thanks for the fix.... de'arrius howard and RBush are my only players in one league (rooks anyway) anything that can be drummed up on howard is good stuff... Bush, well i think he might be okay

 

Finatic

Footballguy
Brandon Marshall will be the guy who will skyrocket up the charts if two things happen...

#1-He gets an invite to the Combine..

#2-His measurables are better than advertised.

Saw quite a few UCF games down here in SW FL. and must say he looks impressive.You could question the level of competition if you wanted to get picky.His time spent as a DB the 1st couple of years at UCF seems to have made his learning curve at WR alot quicker....

Definitely a riser in a weak year for WRs............

 

Bloom

Moderator
love the stuff thanks for the fix.... de'arrius howard and RBush are my only players in one league (rooks anyway) anything that can be drummed up on howard is good stuff... Bush, well i think he might be okay
I got to see a ton of Howard in the shrine game practices. He sure looks the part of a power runner in the NFL. The comparison I am using is a slightly slower, slightly taller Michael Turner.
 

Bloom

Moderator
Brandon Marshall will be the guy who will skyrocket up the charts if two things happen...

#1-He gets an invite to the Combine..

#2-His measurables are better than advertised.

Saw quite a few UCF games down here in SW FL. and must say he looks impressive.You could question the level of competition if you wanted to get picky.His time spent as a DB the 1st couple of years at UCF seems to have made his learning curve at WR alot quicker....

Definitely a riser in a weak year for WRs............
Im sold on him either way. I think he's the kind of guy that 40 time does not matter (See: Boldin). Im kind of hoping he runs in the 4.7s so he lasts in the draft, making it easier for me to pluck him. Like Chaos Commish, Im willing to reach for Marshall if I have to, but it would be nice if i didn't.
 

Gravity

Footballguy
Great stuff. Was one of the bets threads last season!

Just one thought....I gotta believe the RB that Indy takes will be a top 2-3 rookie pick.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Great stuff. Was one of the bets threads last season!

Just one thought....I gotta believe the RB that Indy takes will be a top 2-3 rookie pick.
Hence the statement for Maroney and Calhoun that they could end up in the best situation of all. It would be hard to put either of them ahead of the big 3, but it would also give you a great argument for doing it.
 

Finatic

Footballguy
Brandon Marshall will be the guy who will skyrocket up the charts if two things happen...

#1-He gets an invite to the Combine..

#2-His measurables are better than advertised.

Saw quite a few UCF games down here in SW FL. and must say he looks impressive.You could question the level of competition if you wanted to get picky.His time spent as a DB the 1st couple of years at UCF seems to have made his learning curve at WR alot quicker....

Definitely a riser in a weak year for WRs............
Im sold on him either way. I think he's the kind of guy that 40 time does not matter (See: Boldin). Im kind of hoping he runs in the 4.7s so he lasts in the draft, making it easier for me to pluck him. Like Chaos Commish, Im willing to reach for Marshall if I have to, but it would be nice if i didn't.
Too much is made of the 40 times IMO at the combine.You just can't simulate game speed which is a better guage more times than not...............
 
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Bob Magaw

Footballguy
awesome job, bloom...

you are quickly becoming a mel kiper mini-me... without the bad hair (actually, i have never seen your hair... but the chance of it being worse on average i would reckon as comparable to that of a 400 lb OL running a 4.4 at the combine in the next few years)...
my hair is pretty bad, but in a completely different way than kiper's
like oz, i would include leinert in top tier... with his success in college, coupled with the "most polished QB since manning" scout buzz, it would be hard for me to keep him out... his arm has been questioned... but that concern is mitigated by the fact that manning's was also... i have also heard scouts say he is more pro-ready than carson palmer.

i am divided on VY/ML... my scouting spidey sense is tantalized by young's ceiling... but my rational mind can't overlook the extremely high floor that leinert represents.
the problem i have with leinart in the top tier is that i just dont see any way he produces elite stats. I see his statistical ceiling as Brady, and while Brady was top 5 in a lot of leagues this year, that was because they had no running game to speak of.
also, i might cheat up vernon davis a little if he is as good as advertised (though i agree you pegged him right in tier two)... as you already noted, so much is contingent on combine, workouts & draft destination... this list will mutate & evolve more than the pre-shoot script for plan 9 from outer space (what pre-shoot script? :) )...
I really like Davis, heck I like all of those guys in the 6-16 tier. Honestly I could rank them again right now and it would be different. The only reason he's below those others right now is because I see his statistical upside as Crumpler, and the statistical upside for the guys ahead of him are guys worth more than Crumpler. That's how arbitrary ranking that tier is for me right now.
i didn't look as much at later tiers & IDPs... i do think mario williams & darnell bing may move up before the season... but as you said, it depends on league needs & scoring systems... DEs can take a few years to mature & develope... safeties seem to have more opportunity to make an impact earlier, for learning curve difference reasons we could probably speculate about...

but that is nitpicking... again, OUTSTANDING rookie analysis!
The main reason bing and williams are so low is that unless a DE or S is just ridiculous (polamalu, peppers), they dont even crack the top 100 of initial dynasty drafts. its hard for even the stud S/DE to have more value than speculative WRs and RBs, and solid TEs and QBs.thanks for the kind words :thumbup:
initially, when i read your response, i thought...why can't leinert's upside be manning... since he has elicited those kinds of comparisons from some scouts... than i realized... DUH! :) ... even if he WAS manning... he is unlikely to have manning's monster assemblage of weapons in the passing game... harrison, wayne, stokely, edge (well, formerly)... no matter where he goes...

interestingly, brady could end up being a pretty good comp... i sort of for gor that he was i think #4 QB on PPG basis in FBG scoring... actually higher than manning (#5)... brady soared all the way to #2 in YTD scoring... of course, this is the first year he has done so well.

as to bing... i checked last season for reference (not a real significant statistical sample :) )... the top scoring rookie safety was kerry rhodes (105 pts)... how did he fare relative to the top rookie LBs?

odell thurman was about #8 overall LB (vets included) with 135, brilliant DROY runner up lofat tatupu was about #17... rhodes was the #16 overall DB (vet safeties & CBs included) with 105 pts... this was about the same as the #3 rookie LB kirk morrison, & couple points higher than #4 rookie LB DJ.

but as i said, i didn't research this relative scoring between rookie LBs & DBs more deeply than the 2005 class... it would be interesting to look back a few years.

BTW... your take on rookie DL seemed to be confirmed in so far as most recent class was concerned... trent cole (PHI DE) was #1 rookie DL i could find at #58 overall (just 58 points)...

i forgot to mention that i am very high on lendale white... i realize more scouts have williams higher, but i think white's game will translate to the next level very well.

williams is a stud no doubt... & has a more impressive overall skill set... at about 5'8" 205 he is about same size as tike & westbrook... although in some minds, there is some question whether westbrook could be a 20 carry a game guy... we will probably never know as it is unlikely reid will give him the chance, over concerns about whether he would break down... he is too valuable & important, he would rather have him available for the duration of a long season... also some concerns whether westbrook could be effective running inside for long stretches of a game if ever needed.

but supposedly williams is stronger than westbrook & a better inside runner... do you have slight concerns about his stature, & also about durability, with the MCL & broken leg, to withstand the pounding of being an NFL feature a RB, capable of 20 carries per game?

OTOH, white seemed to be dinged a bit during his tenure as well... & he has a high contact style that sometimes doesn't work as well in the pros as it did in college. but white certainly isn't a stiff, upright runner like christian okoye... he has a nice lean, & pretty nifty feet & wiggle for a big man in the open field...

he is one of the more gifted big backs i can think of in the past 5-10 years... it is impressive that white sports the career rushing TD record for a RB factory like USC... left after his junior year... & split time with bush!

do any comp players come to mind for you on white?

imo, i think he could be a better prospect than eddie goeorge.

* though i like white SLIGHTLY more than williams (without knowing destination in advance), i like both more than maroney... i added 1.3 & 1.4 picks through a trade to the 1.5 i already had in a dynasty IDP league i took over last season... hoping that the three RBs after bush all go to good spots... but maroney goes to an even more plum spot (IND)... if that happens, the RBs i have as #2 & #3 could fall to me... some scouts think bush is historically good (faulk, et al comparisons)... so actually, in a more "normal" year... i might be getting the equivalent of the #1 & #2 most talented RBs in their respective class.

 
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Bloom

Moderator
initially, when i read your response, i thought...

why can't leinert's upside be manning... since he has elicited those kinds of comparisons from some scouts... than i realized... DUH! :) ... even if he WAS manning... he is unlikely to have manning's monster assemblage of weapons in the passing game... harrison, wayne, stokely, edge (well, formerly)... no matter where he goes...

interestingly, brady could end up being a pretty good comp... i sort of for gor that he was i think #4 QB on PPG basis in FBG scoring... actually higher than manning (#5)... brady soared all the way to #2 in YTD scoring... of course, this is the first year he has done so well.

as to bing... i checked last season for reference (not a real significant statistical sample :) )... the top scoring rookie safety was kerry rhodes (105 pts)... how did he fare relative to the top rookie LBs?

odell thurman was about #8 overall LB (vets included) with 135, brilliant DROY runner up lofat tatupu was about #17... rhodes was the #16 overall DB (vet safeties & CBs included) with 105 pts... this was about the same as the #3 rookie LB kirk morrison, & couple points higher than #4 rookie LB DJ.

but as i said, i didn't research this relative scoring between rookie LBs & DBs more deeply than the 2005 class... it would be interesting to look back a few years.

BTW... your take on rookie DL seemed to be confirmed in so far as most recent class was concerned... trent cole (PHI DE) was #1 rookie DL i could find at #58 overall (just 58 points)...

i forgot to mention that i am very high on lendale white... i realize more scouts have williams higher, but i think white's game will translate to the next level very well.

williams is a stud no doubt... & has a more impressive overall skill set... at about 5'8" 205 he is about same size as tike & westbrook... although in some minds, there is some question whether westbrook could be a 20 carry a game guy... we will probably never know as it is unlikely reid will give him the chance, over concerns about whether he would break down... he is too valuable & important, he would rather have him available for the duration of a long season... also some concerns whether westbrook could be effective running inside for long stretches of a game if ever needed.

but supposedly williams is stronger than westbrook & a better inside runner... do you have slight concerns about his stature, & also about durability, with the MCL & broken leg, to withstand the pounding of being an NFL feature a RB, capable of 20 carries per game?

OTOH, white seemed to be dinged a bit during his tenure as well... & he has a high contact style that sometimes doesn't work as well in the pros as it did in college. but white certainly isn't a stiff, upright runner like christian okoye... he has a nice lean, & pretty nifty feet & wiggle for a big man in the open field...

he is one of the more gifted big backs i can think of in the past 5-10 years... it is impressive that white sports the career rushing TD record for a RB factory like USC... left after his junior year... & split time with bush!

do any comp players come to mind for you on white?

imo, i think he could be a better prospect than eddie goeorge.
I like the Brady compare for Leinart, but I think Brady's numbers this year were an aberration b/c of the weakened running game. Brady also has a pretty nice array of weapons (at least as of right now) that Leinart may not have.My ranking of Williams and Bing has more to do with the upside of ANY DE or S, than how rookies fare. Unless Williams really is the next Peppers or Bing really is the next Polamalu, they will have little trade value and really should only be drafted if you are specifically looking for starters at DE/S - and if you are, then I wouldn't argue with bumping them 10-15 spots higher. Either could be starting quality in their rookie seasons, but that would just mean they were getting close to their value ceiling earlier in their career, unless they ended up being a truly elite player. I would much rather trade decent Offensive talent for IDP starters than try to develop them through the rookie draft, with the exception of LBs.

I think White will be more successful at what he does (power running), but Williams should have more opportunities to get stats UNLESS White ends up on a winning team. The problem with White is that he will be the kind of RB that is shut out when the team is playing from behind. Williams won't be. That being said, if White ends up on a 10 or 11 win team, watch out. top 10 is very possible right out of the gate.

Williams durability is an issue, but he did come out and shine in the senior bowl, and i think the situation is very analagous to Caddy last year, who carried the same concerns. What worries me more about Williams is his tendency to want to bounce everything outside.

I like the George compare for White + manueverability. Its really hard to think of a big RB that wasn't a stiff - as you very correctly pointed out, White has some bob and weave in him. Maybe a bigger Dillon? Its tough.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
like oz, i would include leinert in top tier... with his success in college, coupled with the "most polished QB since manning" scout buzz, it would be hard for me to keep him out... his arm has been questioned... but that concern is mitigated by the fact that manning's was also... i have also heard scouts say he is more pro-ready than carson palmer.

i am divided on VY/ML... my scouting spidey sense is tantalized by young's ceiling... but my rational mind can't overlook the extremely high floor that leinert represents.
the problem i have with leinart in the top tier is that i just dont see any way he produces elite stats. I see his statistical ceiling as Brady, and while Brady was top 5 in a lot of leagues this year, that was because they had no running game to speak of.
I can understand that, a lot depends on where he lands. If it's New Orleans, with Horn and Stallworth for a couple years, and Leinart starts, where Aaron Brooks had been a consistent top 10 FF QB, why couldn't Leinart produce better?If the Saints pass on him for anyone other than Young, I see TN taking Young, Jets might grab Leinart, Packers won't, I could see him dropping to Oakland or Detroit. Either of those 2 would put him in a position to put up top stats. Jets, maybe not so much. Either way, with 3 of the 5 likely teams for him to be drafted by, I see as great situations for stats.

Young is more likely to be elite, but with more risk.

 

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
one of my favorite scouts, mike detillier, weighs in on the VY/ML debate in a recent ask mike column from the saints report (he favors young, BTW, while acknowledging that leinert could be a manning/palmer-like prospect)... his contacts & sources within the saints organization confirm the hunch they are leaning towards leinert (though young is getting serious consideration, & their current thinking could be subject to revision)... i also liked his examples used to illustrate why VY absolutely made the right move in deciding to turn pro now instead of coming back for his senior year...

"Hey Mike,

Thanks in advance for taking my question. Prior to the Rose Bowl, you had Matt Leinart rated as your top QB and the guy you thought that the Saints should go with. In fairness, it was not known whether or not Vince Young would declare, so having Leinart as your pick was not surprising. But not only did you feel the Saints had to add a QB with Leinart being your choice, you also felt that Leinart was the most polished QB to come into the draft since Peyton Manning and would carry a similar grade.

Now, after the Rose Bowl, you have Vince Young as both carrying a higher grade than Leinart and as the guy you would take if you were drafting for the Saints at #2. Now, sure, you are free to change your mind as we all are and I can understand why you would be gushing about Young after his Rose Bowl performance. But my question is, "by putting Young over Leinart—who you stated was better than Palmer at this stage and would carry a similar grade to Peyton--are you saying that Young is a better prospect than Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer?" If so, could you please explain why and what you saw differently--other than Young's mobility--that you, perhaps, did not see during the season (when Young played well) or wanted to be sure about?

If it is not that he is better right now, but potentially better--which I could understand--than Matt Leinart or Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, do you feel that the Saints should go with potential over a guy who is more NFL ready? I ask because the Saints have taken potential in the past rather than the guy who was more NFL ready and it has burned us. Sure, the coaching and player development in New Orleans has not been the best, but I would think that it would be more prudent to go with a guy who is more polished and NFL ready than a guy who can boom (and possibly redefine the position) or bust(and make us regret that we took him over Leinart). I think Leinart could come in and start. He will have his ups and downs, but he can be a competent starter in year one. I think Young will need a year or two before he can be the starter.

Make no mistake I respect your opinions. You are well-researched and very knowledgeable about the game. I just do not understand your line of reasoning here and would like some clarity, if at all possible.

Oh, for the record, I personally believe that Young will be a good NFL QB, but I think he would benefit from another year of college and learning more of the nuances of the game.

Again, thanks for taking my questions."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"RealChrisM, I have had a ton of calls about this because some people believe I changed my opinion about the QB position, but that is not the case at all.

First of all, until the night of BCS Championship game Vince Young had continually said that he would return to Texas for his senior season. I never rated Vince on my board because he never said or even indicated that he was thinking about coming out early and Texas, under Mack Brown, had never lost a junior early to the NFL.

That game changed the NFL draft game for teams picking in the top three and it changed the mind of Vince Young, who knew he had played a signature game and that he would never be any hotter.

Now, in a late November “Ask Mike” segment, I think it may be November 29, which is still on the SaintsReport, site I was asked by Eric Vega/Saint from Las Vegas if I had a choice who would I pick between Young or Leinart and I said it was a tough choice, but I would pick Young.

This was the week leading into the Big-12 Championship game and the USC/UCLA contest and a month before the BCS Championship game. If you look back on the questions, you can clearly see that “IF” Young came out he would carry a tad higher grade than Leinart and he would be my preference.

From a draft standpoint, many of us who do this catch a lot of flack from college coaches who suggest we encourage juniors to come out early. I am very careful not to get into detailed breakdowns on players unless they open the door themselves, which at that time Vince Young had not. I don’t necessarily agree that some analysis from a draft prognosticator will change a players’ mind and have him come out earlier than he really wants to due to a grade, but I can say that I have heard back from a number of coaches who think it really does matter.

Evaluating a player is not a one game thing. When you grade a player, it is over a course of time and of his accomplishments, his physical skills and very importantly his upside on how his talents translate to the NFL. The intangibles are a tricky thing to evaluate since that is something you can’t measure, but you try and form a solid opinion on.

Over the years I have heard from many people who buy the book and some even in the NFL world that have complimented me on not continuously changing grades on players, like some others do and I appreciate that compliment. Unless there is an injury or an off-the-field problem, I usually stick with my grade and opinion on a prospect because I personally feel you can be trapped in constantly changing your opinion and draft grade on a prospect and normally your first evaluation is the best one.

There is no question that I said and wrote that Matt Leinart was the most refined pro style QB. to come out of college since Peyton Manning and I have said many times that he has just as good a shot to reach NFL stardom as Peyton and Eli did when they came out. I truly feel that Vince Young has the same type grade and one even higher to play in the NFL.

Over the past years these are the grades I have given QB’s and I included both Young and Leinart’s grades in the process. While something could possibly come up to change those figures, I feel pretty certain this will be the end result, unless there is an injury concern that arises.

Peyton Manning- 19.50

Mike Vick-19.50

David Carr-19.50

Vince Young-19.49

Eli Manning-19.48

Matt Leinart-19.48

Carson Palmer-19.48

Ben Roethlisberger-19.47

Byron Leftwich-19.39

Joey Harrington-19.36

Aaron Rodgers-19.33

Alex Smith-19.32

Chad Pennington-19.18

Philip Rivers-19.13

Drew Brees-19.12

Kyle Boller-19.03

J.P. Losman-19.02

Rex Grossman-19.00

When you look at the grades of P. Manning, M. Vick, V. Young, E. Manning, M. Leinart, C. Palmer and B. Roethlisberger, there is very little difference and I have said many times that whichever one the Saints may get will be a great pickup.

Why is Vince Young such a hot prospect? It is very easy to see that he has the size, the arm strength, the poise under pressure, great leadership skills, the ability to make all the necessary throws and unbelievable mobility and escapability skills. Yes, he does throw the ball a bit awkward, but there are a host of NFL QB’s that do also and Brett Favre is one of them. The feature he has is a super quick release and a very flexible wrist “whip” motion with his throws. He will need some work with his footwork, his ability to read and direct his throws quicker downfield and working from under center, but those are very correctable problems. Vince and Matt will have a learning curve to go through and both have to realize that being picked very high means you don’t go to a team with a ton of talent around you. Matt will also need some mechanical work, (very minor), getting the ball off a bit quicker and getting a bit stronger. He hasn’t had a chance to really work with the weights extensively last season due to the elbow surgery, but he will get physically stronger and he has plenty enough arm strength.

Really, this is coming down to almost the same sort of situation that happened between Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Both were tremendous prospects, but the evaluation of most teams was that Eli would make the transition to pro football quicker than Roethlisberger. Ben had played at a smaller school and remember he came out as a junior and he worked out of the shotgun quite a bit in college. Now, I would have never dreamed that Philip Rivers would get sandwiched in-between the two when my book came out, but again it goes to show you it takes only one team to like you more than another and Ben fell a few spots later to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I really don’t believe in coming in and learning to play pro football. If you are the better player, I say play the young QB and let him learn the ropes of the league. Roethlisberger, Eli, Peyton, Leftwich, all played quite a bit as rookies. Now Palmer and A. Smith saw limited work, but I say, if Young or Leinart is the best quarterback on your team you play him.

The tricky part of all this is just how fast both will make that learning curve to the pros. Brady and Roethlisberger led their teams to Super Bowls in Year 2 of their career. Both Vince and Matt are very intelligent young men with excellent leadership skills and both will pick up the pro game pretty well, but just how good a supporting cast will be around them is another story. David Carr with the Texans has been beaten up in a bad manner on a team that has done little to protect him. Everyone points a finger at him and says he was overrated, but when you are constantly getting “clocked” on every play your game would be off also.

The one thing I really like about both is just how competitive each of them is. Both hate to lose and they have that certain “competitive mean streak” in them that champs normally have.

I do favor Vince over Matt, but people in the Saints organization have a slight lean with Leinart over Young. I am sure that Sean Payton will have plenty to say about which one of the QB’s he wants, but I have a strong feeling it will be Leinart to the Saints. Again, I think that the feeling is that Leinart and Young are very close grade wise and that the Saints will go with the QB they think will come in and pick up the NFL faster. Talking to some in their organization Leinart has the edge, but they are leaving room in there for further evaluation of Vince Young.

I totally disagree with you that Vince should have returned to Texas to play his senior season. The “work points” in his game that he needs to improve upon deals more with pro style work than working again in the “spread-offense” Texas runs. To a certain extent it is like saying Michael Jordan should have played out his college career at North Carolina to learn how to shoot from the perimeter better or that Shaq O’Neil should have played his senior season at LSU to learn how to shoot free throws better and shoot better from outside the paint. After what all of us watched in the BCS Championship game there is no question he made the right choice. Yes, he could have come back and won the Heisman, a possible 2nd national championship and so forth, but he also could have sustained an injury that hurt his draft stock like Byron Leftwich. Just remember that virtually everyone had Leftwich rated ahead of Palmer before his senior season also.

To be honest, it really was the only reasonable financial and professional choice to make.

Hope that clears it up for you and just check out the “Ask Mike” from November and you will see there is no change of heart here about the QB situation. Don’t get too caught up with who is better because with the right supporting cast both will lead their teams to championship play in the future. That’s how good Leinart and Young are.

Take Care."

 
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Team Legacy

Footballguy
Man Bloom, through the Top 15 picks or so, we are on the exact same page.

It kind of upsets me that so many NON-students of the game will have this type of analysis.

My only concern is you have Chad Jackson so high. He reminds me of a Fred Gibson type. High potential, but if he doesn't start learning he'll bottom out and end up on practice squads for a few years. I just can't put him before the SURE THING tight ends at this point.

Also, you DO shock me with Pope's ranking. IMO, you'll be pushing this ranking WAY up as he could be the best of the 3. Courtney Anderson size and strength with hands.

Great stuff as always my man.

 

Team Legacy

Footballguy
Also ranking on Hagan, Stovall and Hass are very low compared to my rankings. You have some real questionable receivers ranked ahead of them.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Man Bloom, through the Top 15 picks or so, we are on the exact same page.

It kind of upsets me that so many NON-students of the game will have this type of analysis.

My only concern is you have Chad Jackson so high. He reminds me of a Fred Gibson type. High potential, but if he doesn't start learning he'll bottom out and end up on practice squads for a few years. I just can't put him before the SURE THING tight ends at this point.

Also, you DO shock me with Pope's ranking. IMO, you'll be pushing this ranking WAY up as he could be the best of the 3. Courtney Anderson size and strength with hands.

Great stuff as always my man.
In the TE premium leagues, the sure thing TEs are above Jackson for sure. In leagues with TE scoring the same as WR, its hard to see the sure thing TEs value getting above say top 50-75 unless they get into the truly elite TE tier, which is not a sure thing. That's why Jackson is higher on the list right now, but he is clearly more of a risk/reward than the TEs. The 6-16 tier is mind-boggling to sort out - needs for your dynasty team will probably dictate your ranking more than anything else in an even group like this. The Pope ranking was meant to shock - I can see myself backpedaling on this one a little bit after his combine numbers come out, which are sure to impress. Still he seems like the least fluid and smooth of the top 4 TEs to me, although his tools are second to only Davis.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Also ranking on Hagan, Stovall and Hass are very low compared to my rankings. You have some real questionable receivers ranked ahead of them.
Im real down on Hagan. He's shown terrible hands for a guy who gets by on being dependable because he lacks elite size or speed.I might be underestimating Stovall - he *could* be a Plaxico type as a deep threat, but I see him as more of a quality #2 than a true #1. Im also a little skeptical because of how quickly his stock has risen - is it him, or just the lack of top notch WRs in this class?

I have to keep Hass a bit low because he could end up just being a possession receiver, almost worthless for fantasy. That being said, he has exceeded expectations at every level of play, and could end up being a Hines Ward type, a guy that becomes a #1 because of how physical and dependable he is, despite the lack of elite size or speed. I do have some concerns about his ability to create separation at the next level, but he might be physical enough to overcome that, and from a technical standpoint, I don't think there's a better WR in this draft.

The thing about this year's rookie crop is that the guys in the 20-45 range are much closer in value than typical years because of the depth of this draft class. You might have a guy at 40 that i have at 20 and vice versa, they are that hard to rank without knowing the situations. Bottom line: stock up on picks in the 30s in your rookie drafts - thats what i have already been doing in my dynasty leagues.

 

Cannon Fodder

Footballguy
Hey Bloom, how would you compare the top 2 WR's this year (Holmes, Jackson) to last years class? Do you think they would be in the same class or further down? Lets just take the top 3 taken (Edwards, Williamson, Williams), do either of Holmes or Jackson fall in the same class as these guys?

 

Bloom

Moderator
Hey Bloom, how would you compare the top 2 WR's this year (Holmes, Jackson) to last years class? Do you think they would be in the same class or further down? Lets just take the top 3 taken (Edwards, Williamson, Williams), do either of Holmes or Jackson fall in the same class as these guys?
Holmes about equivalent to Mark Clayton at this time last year. Jackson slightly above Reggie Brown at this time last year. None of them at the level of those 3 going into the draft last year. Now, we know that Williamson still has more upside than Holmes and probably Jackson, but still carries a bust risk.
 

EBF

Footballguy
Nice list. I think you did a solid job, but there are a few things that stood out to me.

5. Vince Young, QB, Texas - Great runner at QB, but not a run-first QB. Should be top 10 at worst, with top 3-5 upside. Even if he completely busts as a QB, he will be an elite NFL WR.
I think Young is overrated. I'd much rather have Calhoun and would probably also prefer Leinart and Holmes. I just don't think Young has proven enough as a passer to warrant such a high ranking. I also disagree that he'll be an elite NFL WR if he busts. Even if he does bust as a QB, he'll spend several years at the position. By the time he flops, he might be 26-27 years old. Add on a few years required to learn the WR position and you're looking at a guy who might already be on the decline by the time he starts paying dividends. I just don't think the "well if he flops as a QB then he'll still be a stud WR" argument holds any weight. If you like Young as a QB then you like him as a QB, but don't think for a second that he's going to turn into Randy Moss if he flops like Akili Smith. I'd be inclined to take Cutler over Addai and probably over Harrison. I think it's generally wise to take the first round QB talent over the marginal RBs and WRs. I like most of your other rankings, although I'd consider moving Brandon Williams up a bit. He may not have the upside to become a WR1 in the NFL, but he's probably a better prospect than a handful of the WRs listed above him.
 

EBF

Footballguy
I noticed that some people were asking for comparable players for LenDale White. I'd say that White is like a lighter hybrid between Jamal Lewis and Jerome Bettis. He's not quite as powerful as either of those two backs, but he has surprising breakaway speed, excellent feet, and he runs low to the ground (like Bettis). One other thing that people rarely mention about White is his outstanding vision and patience. He really does a nice job of waiting for holes to develop and taking what his line gives him.

I have some concerns about White and may ultimately rank him below DeAngelo Williams, but if he goes to a team like Arizona, Jacksonville, Carolina, or Pittbsurgh then he could easily be the top fantasy RB from this class. It's true that Bush has Faulk-like skills, but White has a chance to become a dominant workhorse in the mold of Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Nice list. I think you did a solid job, but there are a few things that stood out to me.

5. Vince Young, QB, Texas - Great runner at QB, but not a run-first QB. Should be top 10 at worst, with top 3-5 upside. Even if he completely busts as a QB, he will be an elite NFL WR.
I think Young is overrated. I'd much rather have Calhoun and would probably also prefer Leinart and Holmes. I just don't think Young has proven enough as a passer to warrant such a high ranking. I also disagree that he'll be an elite NFL WR if he busts. Even if he does bust as a QB, he'll spend several years at the position. By the time he flops, he might be 26-27 years old. Add on a few years required to learn the WR position and you're looking at a guy who might already be on the decline by the time he starts paying dividends. I just don't think the "well if he flops as a QB then he'll still be a stud WR" argument holds any weight. If you like Young as a QB then you like him as a QB, but don't think for a second that he's going to turn into Randy Moss if he flops like Akili Smith.

I'd be inclined to take Cutler over Addai and probably over Harrison. I think it's generally wise to take the first round QB talent over the marginal RBs and WRs.

I like most of your other rankings, although I'd consider moving Brandon Williams up a bit. He may not have the upside to become a WR1 in the NFL, but he's probably a better prospect than a handful of the WRs listed above him.
the WR comment about Young is just something Im fond of throwing out there - basically it means, "he's so off the charts for athleticism and intangibles that he's going to make an impact in this league come hell or high water". I wouldnt consider Addai or Harrison "marginal" , but otherwise your point is taken.Williams is tough - I got to see a lot of him up close and personal at the shrine game practices. He's very physical and hard nosed for a little WR, but he doesn't have that top end speed to get separation consistently, which is how the smith/moss types make their living. On top of that, he's not the most consistent WR. I could see him above Hagan, but Jennings is a similar WR that is more consistent and not as undersized, so I wouldnt put Williams above him.

 
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Bloom

Moderator
I noticed that some people were asking for comparable players for LenDale White. I'd say that White is like a lighter hybrid between Jamal Lewis and Jerome Bettis. He's not quite as powerful as either of those two backs, but he has surprising breakaway speed, excellent feet, and he runs low to the ground (like Bettis). One other thing that people rarely mention about White is his outstanding vision and patience. He really does a nice job of waiting for holes to develop and taking what his line gives him.

I have some concerns about White and may ultimately rank him below DeAngelo Williams, but if he goes to a team like Arizona, Jacksonville, Carolina, or Pittbsurgh then he could easily be the top fantasy RB from this class. It's true that Bush has Faulk-like skills, but White has a chance to become a dominant workhorse in the mold of Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson.
Agreed on White's vision and wiggle, he's much more than a battering ram.
 

ILoveMyLions

Footballguy
Great insight as usual Bloom! As long as you keep writing, we'll be better off in our leagues for it.

A couple of points from this thread:

The consensus is that if White goes to a top rushing team with 10 wins or one that runs the ball a lot, that will boost him up. Teams like Jacksonville, PIttsburgh and Carolina are all teams in that situation. However, the likelyhood of him being there when those teams pick is unlikely. What teams then in the top 15-20 that need a back and select him would also qualify as a great fit for him? The only ones that make sense would be teams like Arizona, Green Bay (if Green is let go), Baltimore (if they don't resign Lewis) and mabye the Jets. It would seem that most other teams that take him in that range would be less than desireable places for him. the likely other teams would be Atlanta, Minnesota or Philly, where an established back is and would lessen his value. I'd say the odds are 50-50 at this point that he ends up in a great situation.

Another point I have is on the VY/ML debate. Clearly Leinart is the safe pick and should be a solid QB for years to come without ever being an elite QB unless he is surrounded by a great line and good WRs. It would also help that the team picking him have an average defense for fantasy purposes to continue throwing the ball in the 4th quarter. The analogy of the high floor and low ceiling for Leinart is a great analogy for him. You know what you are getting which is likely a backup QB for most fantasy teams with potential of starting but not being elite unless he's in a great situation. Young on the other hand, has the potential to being a top 5 QB in a few years but is much more of a risk/reward player as previously stated. He has the high ceiling, but could also bust out of the league and never be an impact QB.

I think for dynasty teams choosing between these two, it will come down to personal preference and what your teams needs more: stability or upside. If you are set at a starting QB for the next few years, it would make sense to take a player like Young and gamble on him and hope you roll 7. If you have an older QB who is near the end or don't have viable backups, you might want to go with Leinart for the insurance and likelihood that he'll be playing a long time. I would put both tied in the same tier as they are too close to call at this point without knowing team situations.

:2cents:

 

BigJim®

Footballguy
~Great reading~

Great job on this ranking. Your top 6 is dead on with my own predraft ranking, I'd put Leinart #7 and that's where my tier 1 ends. There's still even odds in my mind that one of Maroney/L.White/D.Williams goes to such a great situation that he can push R.Bush for #1. 8-12 looks great also, although I suspect Addai/J.Harrison may sneak into late 1st in my league. But again, they may not wind up in ideal situations.

 

Bloom

Moderator
Bloom,Could you expand on Jerrious Norwood a little...

TIA
Im sticking by my Willie Parker comparison -Really fast, but on the small, slight side. While he's does runs tough and hard, he's just not big enough or strong enough to get much in the way of yards after contact. He's not particularly elusive - not a "make you miss" RB, but his speed allows him to get the outside easier than most RBs, and he will outrun most anyone in the open field.

 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
Bloom,Could you expand on Jerrious Norwood a little...

TIA
Im sticking by my Willie Parker comparison -Really fast, but on the small, slight side. While he's does runs tough and hard, he's just not big enough or strong enough to get much in the way of yards after contact. He's not particularly elusive - not a "make you miss" RB, but his speed allows him to get the outside easier than most RBs, and he will outrun most anyone in the open field.
Watching/reading during the Senior Bowl week, it seemed what he really had was great burst. I assume his flat-out speed is good, but it was the burst that was so impressive. I think he'll likely outperform his draft spot, barring injury of course. A great burst is gold for a RB who isn't that big, IMHO.
 

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