Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

99.99999% of my trades go unanswered in my main league in the offseason it’s pretty frustrating. Not sure how you can be in a dynasty league and run your team like you’re in a redraft league

It’s maddening. Also how can you be in a dynasty league and straight ignore trade offers?

Even totally egregious, “good for that topic” offers, I’ll reject - but ones that may not interest me but aren’t totally stupid I’ll generally see an an opportunity to
1. Engage with another manager to build rapport
2. See as a potential opportunity to make some sort of deal based on the interest and mutual needs.

I’ll generally decline and counter with “that player isn’t available but maybe this works instead?”

Even if it doesn’t, it keeps the communication friendly & opens the door to future engagement.

Just ignoring an offer and letting it sit there for 3 days seems rude. Especially when that owner has picked in the rookie draft so I know they’re active.

IMO every potential deal is an opportunity to improve my team.

I rarely make trades in redraft - but in dynasty I’m as active as they come. Otherwise what’s the fun in playing dynasty? Also targeting old dudes should be a slam dunk strategy when I have a win-now roster. Why wouldn’t a team that isn’t competing want to move off of an ARod or Stafford?

 

[Rookiefever]

would anyone like to give their opinion on these rookies?

Irving, Bucky TBB RB
Estime, Audric DEN RB
Davis, Ray BUF RB
Tracy, Tyrone NYG RB
Vidal, Kimani LAC RB

I'm on deck and then have the next two picks

I like Estime’s potential situation.
Irving lacks prototypical size, likely in a committee
Ray Davis you’re hoping he’s thunder to Cook’s lightning
Vidal has a chance in a murky RB room. Long term at least.
Tracy - read his best metrics came from basically 1 game. I’m out.

If I get 2 I take Estime + Davis or Estime+Vidal

thanks!

I thought Tracy might have the best path to touches? But you're not impressed with his skills?
Irving is 5'10", 195#. Too light?
I like Vidal, but wonder why he lasted until 6th round?

Tracy is the guy I'd go with.

thanks! Any insights you can share?

Who'd be your #2?

Vidal and estime or Davis for me. I like eatime better but Davis has a better situation imo

 

[Gally]

But I will be honest, now that our draft is done, I'm in a wait and see mode. I made most of my moves and waiting to closer to the season before making any big moves.

I know this has come up before but this time of year is a great time to get a lot of value if you believe in your evaluations and expectations. Everyone isn't sure about roles, teams, etc so there is a lot of unknown for sure. It makes a lot of sense to just sit back and let info come in to start validating your opinions. Nothing wrong with that at all.

However, some of the best deals I have ever made are during this time because I took chances on my beliefs and planted my flag. It's the best time to get really good deals if you can sniff out the tea leaves.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

However, some of the best deals I have ever made are during this time because I took chances on my beliefs and planted my flag. It's the best time to get really good deals if you can sniff out the tea leaves.

Also the perfect way to completely whiff on dudes you were wrong about.

 

[Gally]

However, some of the best deals I have ever made are during this time because I took chances on my beliefs and planted my flag. It's the best time to get really good deals if you can sniff out the tea leaves.

Also the perfect way to completely whiff on dudes you were wrong about.

Success definitely hinges on your evaluation abilities. If you suck at that then maybe you pull a Costanza

 

[Big Nate]

But I will be honest, now that our draft is done, I'm in a wait and see mode. I made most of my moves and waiting to closer to the season before making any big moves.

I know this has come up before but this time of year is a great time to get a lot of value if you believe in your evaluations and expectations. Everyone isn't sure about roles, teams, etc so there is a lot of unknown for sure. It makes a lot of sense to just sit back and let info come in to start validating your opinions. Nothing wrong with that at all.

However, some of the best deals I have ever made are during this time because I took chances on my beliefs and planted my flag. It's the best time to get really good deals if you can sniff out the tea leaves.

For sure, those are some good points. It is definitely league dependent. My one league I'm defending champ and basically have my main part of my roster set so I am in wait and see mode as we get into the season and having to start players and set a roster. I've mentioned this in other threads but I got very unlucky making early moves once (for RBs) as in the same offseason I lost Akers and Dobbins, both who I had recently acquired when they went down with season ending injuries. I'm very reluctant to acquire RBs right now as so much can change going into the season.

WRs, QBs, TEs who generally have a longer shelf life are a bit less risky when acquiring them in the offseason.

 

[Gally]

I lost Akers and Dobbins, both who I had recently acquired when they went down with season ending injuries. I'm very reluctant to acquire RBs right now as so much can change going into the season.

I think this is flawed reasoning. You cannot predict injuries and you could have easily lost the RB's you already had on the roster to season ending injuries. Trading for them didn't have any bearing on that happening. Injuries happen and they suck when they do but not making moves now because you are worried that the guys you are getting will get hurt is just unnecessary. Trades have zero bearing on that. Definitely not a reason to prohibit trading.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I lost Akers and Dobbins, both who I had recently acquired when they went down with season ending injuries. I'm very reluctant to acquire RBs right now as so much can change going into the season.

I think this is flawed reasoning. You cannot predict injuries and you could have easily lost the RB's you already had on the roster to season ending injuries. Trading for them didn't have any bearing on that happening. Injuries happen and they suck when they do but not making moves now because you are worried that the guys you are getting will get hurt is just unnecessary. Trades have zero bearing on that. Definitely not a reason to prohibit trading.

I do think it is easier for a receiver to recover FF value versus a running back, so I do understand where Big Nate is coming from. It may or may not be statistically true, but with running backs typically having shorter FF “lifespan’s” I think most owners view it that way.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

16 team SF PPR TEP IDP

I have only Herbert, Brissett, & Howell as QBs, and have been trying to get one for 3 months with no luck. There’s a chance I could get this done.

Anyone giving up Puka for JJ McCarthy + Ladd McConkey or nah?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

16 team SF PPR TEP IDP

I have only Herbert, Brissett, & Howell as QBs, and have been trying to get one for 3 months with no luck. There’s a chance I could get this done.

Anyone giving up Puka for JJ McCarthy + Ladd McConkey or nah?

That's a nahh from me, bruh. Giving up a solid asset for two question marks isn't a shark move, IMO. I've got several shares of Puka in SF leagues and can't think of many players or combos of players that would get me to move off of him.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

16 team SF PPR TEP IDP

I have only Herbert, Brissett, & Howell as QBs, and have been trying to get one for 3 months with no luck. There’s a chance I could get this done.

Anyone giving up Puka for JJ McCarthy + Ladd McConkey or nah?

I'm guessing you have already, but my first move would be looking at guys like Stafford, Russ, ARod, and Geno on the cheap.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's a nahh from me, bruh. Giving up a solid asset for two question marks isn't a shark move, IMO. I've got several shares of Puka in SF leagues and can't think of many players or combos of players that would get me to move off of him

Appreciate the response. As you may recall, I’m one of the early believers in Puka, and have 2 shares.

That said, he’s also a dude I paid 5.08 for, and IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

My big concern is JJM, but in a 16 team SF it’s really, really hard to get QBs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm guessing you have already, but my first move would be looking at guys like Stafford, Russ, ARod, and Geno on the cheap.

3 months of floating those offers. None of those teams are selling. Baker too.

Team Geno is also team Levis.

I even tried to overpay for ARod, which turned my stomach.

 

[Da Franchise]

That's a nahh from me, bruh. Giving up a solid asset for two question marks isn't a shark move, IMO. I've got several shares of Puka in SF leagues and can't think of many players or combos of players that would get me to move off of him

Appreciate the response. As you may recall, I’m one of the early believers in Puka, and have 2 shares.

That said, he’s also a dude I paid 5.08 for, and IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

My big concern is JJM, but in a 16 team SF it’s really, really hard to get QBs.

It would be a ballsy move. I’m totally sold on JJ though and just don’t see a world where he isn’t a starting QB for a long time. And it’s just as much being sold on the person as it is his abilities. Just don’t think that guy is going to fail. I’d still have a hard time clicking that trade but it’s really tempting. Anybody besides Ladd you could ask for? I’m a fan of his just curious.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It would be a ballsy move. I’m totally sold on JJ though and just don’t see a world where he isn’t a starting QB for a long time. And it’s just as much being sold on the person as it is his abilities. Just don’t think that guy is going to fail. I’d still have a hard time clicking that trade but it’s really tempting. Anybody besides Ladd you could ask for? I’m a fan of his just curious.

Definitely would be the ballsiest deal I’ve ever made if I offer it.

He just took Coleman & Ladd. I like both. I like Ladd more, and I have Herbert - which isn’t worth anything but it’s more fun.

And yeah, it would also involve my LB6 and his 3.02, with which I could take a RB, WR, or IDP-er (BPA) so there’s one more piece for me, also a rookie.

 

[Rirruto]

I think even if JJ is a buuust he's getting two years as a starter with good weapons. Not sure I'd make that deal, but dynasty is fun because deals that aren't so great in a vacuum can make perfect sense for the team you've got or are tryna build. And 16 team SF totally changes player value.

Edit: I think I talked myself into it with the last line. 16 teams SF means that being 1/32 (and it's honestly probably closer to like 28) full time starters makes you super valuable. Plus you're cashing in on excess value from being right on Puka.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Edit: I think I talked myself into it with the last line. 16 teams SF means that being 1/32 (and it's honestly probably closer to like 28) full time starters makes you super valuable. Plus you're cashing in on excess value from being right on Puka.

Thanks - I offered. He’s mulling.

We’ll see if my jnsanity is rewarded.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

That's a nahh from me, bruh. Giving up a solid asset for two question marks isn't a shark move, IMO. I've got several shares of Puka in SF leagues and can't think of many players or combos of players that would get me to move off of him

Appreciate the response. As you may recall, I’m one of the early believers in Puka, and have 2 shares.

That said, he’s also a dude I paid 5.08 for, and IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

My big concern is JJM, but in a 16 team SF it’s really, really hard to get QBs.

I hope you're wrong about Puka. Just from watching a few games last season, I came away impressed by the dude's will to get the ball. He's one of those cats that don't wow you with any of his measurables, but just finds a way to make the catch. Top 10 is a bit of a stretch, but I do think he's a WR1.

Just to be clear, I like both JJM and Ladd. They are likely to be good players for a long time. There's also a non zero chance that both are flat out busts. JJM has a LOT of work to do this summer to even beat out Sam Darnold for QB1 on the Vikes. And McConkey is yet another one of those smaller WRs, except he's not as fast. Again, both would be great gets on my team, but I can see a path to where Puka outscores both of them for the next 2+ years. Just something to think about.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

@Hot Sauce Guy in another direction, have you reached out to the Bo Nix owner? That dude is looking promising and he has an exceptionally clear path to QB1 in Denver, whatever that may be worth.

 

[Jppaul]

16 team SF PPR TEP IDP

I have only Herbert, Brissett, & Howell as QBs,

who's a FA?

I feel like Drew Lock or Mason Rudolph has a good chance of starting the majority of the season.

Stidham or Wilson in Denver?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@Hot Sauce Guy in another direction, have you reached out to the Bo Nix owner? That dude is looking promising and he has an exceptionally clear path to QB1 in Denver, whatever that may be worth.

Have not. That owner has only Nix & Purdy so not in a position to move him.

That’s the biggest challenge in 16 team SF. A team needs to have 3 QB to move one, so options are extremely limited.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

16 team SF PPR TEP IDP

I have only Herbert, Brissett, & Howell as QBs,

who's a FA?

I feel like Drew Lock or Mason Rudolph has a good chance of starting the majority of the season.

Stidham or Wilson in Denver?

16 teams, 50 roster spots (currently 55), 10 team taxi. And it’s Superflex. Not only is every QB rostered, every backup QB is rostered.

There are zero FAs. Wishful thinking.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

except he's not as fast.

4.39 is pretty fast.

86th percentile. And he’s a route running machine. PPR beast.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Again, both would be great gets on my team, but I can see a path to where Puka outscores both of them for the next 2+ years. Just something to think about.

I don’t disagree that it’s possible.

But the upside is also possible. I’m reasonably sure Darnold will start a handful of games to start the season. I have Brissett to bridge that gap if this goes down.

The upside is having 2 plug and play top 12 QB for the foreseeable future if JJM isn’t a bust. And in a 16-team SF it feels like it’s worth the gamble.

 

[menobrown]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

Again, I believe I was the very first person pumping up Puka on this site. So you are very much preaching to the choir here.

I am extremely high on him for fantasy. Not quite as high as you are, but definitely up there.

I am not quite as confident as you that the Rams will be able to easily replace Matt Stafford. My opinion, they absolutely should’ve drafted a quarterback this year. and with just one season under his belt, I have a difficult time saying with confidence the Nacua is quarterback-proof.

That said, regardless of whether he hits his peak or not, I find myself in a situation where I have to look at team build versus the pieces I have. Having 1 quarterback is not a winning strategy. My roster is otherwise built to win now.

I’m trying to exercise all options to obtain a quarterback… So far this remains my most promising. That said, I give it about a 15% chance the owner accepts it. maybe less.

 

[Loipz]

except he's not as fast.

4.39 is pretty fast.

86th percentile. And he’s a route running machine. PPR beast.

Probably cause he seems like the quicker than fast type

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

Again, I believe I was the very first person pumping up Puka on this site. So you are very much preaching to the choir here.

I am extremely high on him for fantasy. Not quite as high as you are, but definitely up there.

I am not quite as confident as you that the Rams will be able to easily replace Matt Stafford. My opinion, they absolutely should’ve drafted a quarterback this year. and with just one season under his belt, I have a difficult time saying with confidence the Nacua is quarterback-proof.

That said, regardless of whether he hits his peak or not, I find myself in a situation where I have to look at team build versus the pieces I have. Having 1 quarterback is not a winning strategy. My roster is otherwise built to win now.

I’m trying to exercise all options to obtain a quarterback… So far this remains my most promising. That said, I give it about a 15% chance the owner accepts it. maybe less.

The Rams are in the same situation the Raiders are in. Both should have taken a QB in the 1st round. That said, any bridge QB or rookie in the next year or two will absolutely love having Puka as a safety blanket. Dude is almost the definition of QB-proof. Like a Wes Welker in his prime.

Not trying to talk you out of this trade at all, but it just reminds me a lot of the guys selling JJ or Chase. You just can't get rid of young, super talented and productive guys like that without receiving a hefty premium.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

except he's not as fast.

4.39 is pretty fast.

86th percentile. And he’s a route running machine. PPR beast.

I dunno. 4.40 40 times aren't what the used to be, especially for barely 6' tall guys under 190lbs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not trying to talk you out of this trade at all, but it just reminds me a lot of the guys selling JJ or Chase. You just can't get rid of young, super talented and productive guys like that without receiving a hefty premium.

I get it. It’s risky. Sometimes you have to take risks.

Back when I was looking to buy Jordan Love for a mid-1st, many here talked me out of it with the same concerns.

Now Jordan Love is worth 2x 1sts, and the owner won’t sell.

JJM is a talented kid who landed in the perfect situation with elite talent at WR, TE, and a top 3 NFL OL. Plus a coach who’s known for enhancing QB play.

Could Puka be a top 5 WR? Absolutely - that’s why someone might be willing to pay for him.

And I am willing to take that risk because JJM could set me up at the QB position for a decade+ in a format where having two top QB is a massive advantage.

Also worth noting - at WR I currently have Lamb, AJB, Puka, Nico. Also a top 4 11-man defense in the league. So turning Puka into a QB prospect I like + a WR prospect I really like seems well worth the risk. Could be the difference between winning a championship or not over the next few years.

I’m just sayin - if Puka wasn’t as good as yall are saying, this wouldn’t even be a discussion because nobody would pay up JJM+McC for him. They still might not, but at least it hasn’t been rejected yet. lol

Risk reward. Can’t get anywhere if ya don’t take chances.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

except he's not as fast.

4.39 is pretty fast.

86th percentile. And he’s a route running machine. PPR beast.

I dunno. 4.40 40 times aren't what the used to be, especially for barely 6' tall guys under 190lbs.

He’s in a very good situation as well. That also helps.

 

[Rookiefever]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

Again, I believe I was the very first person pumping up Puka on this site. So you are very much preaching to the choir here.

I am extremely high on him for fantasy. Not quite as high as you are, but definitely up there.

I am not quite as confident as you that the Rams will be able to easily replace Matt Stafford. My opinion, they absolutely should’ve drafted a quarterback this year. and with just one season under his belt, I have a difficult time saying with confidence the Nacua is quarterback-proof.

That said, regardless of whether he hits his peak or not, I find myself in a situation where I have to look at team build versus the pieces I have. Having 1 quarterback is not a winning strategy. My roster is otherwise built to win now.

I’m trying to exercise all options to obtain a quarterback… So far this remains my most promising. That said, I give it about a 15% chance the owner accepts it. maybe less.

I really hate sf when it comes to deals like this. I get that on paper it seems good for you. However. I couldn’t bring myself to do it. Puka is damn near bonafide imo. Not to mention the dude might just be the toughest wr in the league. I know I’ll catch some flack for that statement but he was absolutely pummeled by the lions the last time they played and the guy just kept getting up. Not sure if you have all 22 but I beg you just go back and watch the rams offense from that game. You just might revoke your offer

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not sure if you have all 22 but I beg you just go back and watch the rams offense from that game. You just might revoke your offer

I watched wide swaths of that game. I get it. Puka is the best player in this trade. That’s why he might command 2x 1st round players.

I would need to hit on both rookies for this to be worth it.

Possible results:
Ceiling: hit on both and own the league for 3-4 years. QB1 (top 12) & WR1 (8-15 range)
Middle ground: serviceable QB2, mid-level WR2/3 - keeps me competitive, but bad return on Puka.
Floor: both busts, seppuku ensues.

Or some weird middle ground where 1 of them hits and the other doesn’t. Or injury strikes, or some combo.

I’d say 60%+ of those scenarios improve my team’s chances of winning a ship. Hopefully it gets accepted so we can all find out.,,together.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Appreciate the feedback, everyone. At this point I give it a ~6% chance of being accepted.

But a fun and informative discussion for sure.

That doesn’t fill my QB2 hole, but it was entertaining nonetheless.

 

[Rirruto]

IMO is a little overvalued, coming off a record setting season, with a perfect storm of Kupp’s injuries & Stafford resurgence. And the Rams don’t have a plan B at QB at the moment, which is a little troubling.

I have him more in the WR20 range, when most rank him top 10. I kinda want to capitalize on that value difference.

QB situations change for a lot of WR's and you got to figure McVay will figure out the QB situation.

But the Kupp injury performance is something I'd encourage people to look deeper inot. He had 13 full games with Kupp and in those 13 games he basically would have prorarated to all time historic season, top 4 all time, almost dead on identical to Justin Jeffersons.

JJ, 16g, 125 targets, 88/1,400/7
Puka, 13 games with Kupp which includes the playoff game, 111 targets, 71/1,125/5 and prorated over JJ's 16 games that's 136 targets for 87/1,385/6.

Which is again almost dead on equal to Jefferson but he'd have needed 11 more targets to be fair.

I'd also point out I think he was slowed by a knee injury for about a month.

So to people who act like his numbers are artificlaly inflated from the games Kupp missed it I'd tell you to look again.

Now for sure he was better in the 4 full games without Kupp. Had 52 targets for 39/501/1 TD. The TD's are low but that's a ridicilous 16 game proration pace of 208 targets/156/2,004. But then you step back and realize that the most ridicilous WR fantasy season we've seen in the last I don't know how long was Kupp's triple crown season when he went for 145/1,947/16 (but in 17 games).

They did not touch Kupp's contract this year when doing so would have created salary cap space. His current base is $15m, second highest on the team and about $9M mor then anyone else that was not signed this off-season. Teams typically start taking this approach, not adjusting base salaries to create cap space, for players they are planning a future without. The only bad news in this part of the analysis, is that they did the same thing with Stafford.

But to me, in summary, he was great with Kupp but instead of getting caught up in being down on the fact he was better without Kupp in the lineup I instead am looking at the possiblities of the extra level, the overall WR1 level, he can attain without him which my guess is coming soon.

Again the QB sitiuation is not known but how much has Justin Jefferson fallen with an unknown QB situation but Lamb's likely about to in the same boat, Justin Jefferson is in the same boat and for the record I'm mighty high on Mccarthy the QB but he may not a boon to JJ, remains to be seen. Tyreek went from Mahomes to Tua and improved. He'll have McVay and that's what matters the most to me.

Puka's health and injury history is my biggest concern with him, I got him right around WR 5-6. I'd caution about falling into a trap of not being properly high on him because he was cheap to acquire.

Again, I believe I was the very first person pumping up Puka on this site. So you are very much preaching to the choir here.

I am extremely high on him for fantasy. Not quite as high as you are, but definitely up there.

I am not quite as confident as you that the Rams will be able to easily replace Matt Stafford. My opinion, they absolutely should’ve drafted a quarterback this year. and with just one season under his belt, I have a difficult time saying with confidence the Nacua is quarterback-proof.

That said, regardless of whether he hits his peak or not, I find myself in a situation where I have to look at team build versus the pieces I have. Having 1 quarterback is not a winning strategy. My roster is otherwise built to win now.

I’m trying to exercise all options to obtain a quarterback… So far this remains my most promising. That said, I give it about a 15% chance the owner accepts it. maybe less.

I really hate sf when it comes to deals like this.

We live in a world where Bo Nix was selected as the number 12 pick. His upside is career back up. If literally everything goes right for him. We are about 23 months from a fired executive writing a 25 minute read on The Athletic about why drafting a back up QB in the top 15 is actually a smart move.

Fantasy cannot replicate real llfe. It shouldn't try. But SF gets QB value somewhere in the range of where it should be.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

His upside is career back up. If literally everything goes right for him.

This seems to be worth mentioning - his upside is more like “starting QB for the falcons” if Cousins is injured, or if in 2 years they part ways.

career backup is his downside. Also possible. Not saying it’s not.

Fantasy cannot replicate real llfe. It shouldn't try. But SF gets QB value somewhere in the range of where it should be.

I do think SF adds appropriate value to QB in dynasty. But it also definitely creates a crazy economy for rookie QBs, or top 5-7 “elite” guys.

 

[joey]

Appreciate the feedback, everyone. At this point I give it a ~6% chance of being accepted.

But a fun and informative discussion for sure.

That doesn’t fill my QB2 hole, but it was entertaining nonetheless.

In that league format, I don’t see an owner giving up their shiny new rookie QB in a great situation for “just” a top 10 WR.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if an offer of Puka for McCarthy (removing Ladd from the offer) doesn’t also get rejected. 16 teams plus SuperFlex just makes QBs beyond gold. Heck platinum AND diamonds combined

But you know this

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In that league format, I don’t see an owner giving up their shiny new rookie QB in a great situation for “just” a top 10 WR.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if an offer of Puka for McCarthy doesn’t also get rejected. 16 teams plus SuperFlex just makes QBs beyond gold. Heck platinum AND diamonds combined

But you know this

Hasn’t been rejected yet.

I’ve traded with this dude before. He took BPA with his 2 picks, but he has 2 good QB already and a bunch of picks.

Sometimes managers get a mancrush on a player like Puka. He drafted MH2 as well, so this would give him a 3rd elite WR.Players like Puka are usually untouchable. There are a couple other pieces in the offer, too.

We’ll see. 5% chance I wake up to acceptance. 95% rejection.

But I shot my shot. Can’t win if ya don’t play

 

[joey]

In that league format, I don’t see an owner giving up their shiny new rookie QB in a great situation for “just” a top 10 WR.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if an offer of Puka for McCarthy doesn’t also get rejected. 16 teams plus SuperFlex just makes QBs beyond gold. Heck platinum AND diamonds combined

But you know this

Hasn’t been rejected yet.

I’ve traded with this dude before. He took BPA with his 2 picks, but he has 2 good QB already and a bunch of picks.

Sometimes managers get a mancrush on a player like Puka. He drafted MH2 as well, so this would give him a 3rd elite WR.Players like Puka are usually untouchable. There are a couple other pieces in the offer, too.

We’ll see. 5% chance I wake up to acceptance. 95% rejection.

But I shot my shot. Can’t win if ya don’t play

If he rejects, do you dare go back with just Puka for McCarthy stragiht up?

Do you have your first rounder next year at least to grab a rookie QB next year?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Do you have your first rounder next year at least to grab a rookie QB next year?

1. No.
2. Also no, but my team could still compete. So worst case scenario I’m back where I was, and still have all my pieces to deal down the road if someone decide to sell a QB.

I’d much rather move AJB for a QB, but I think the upside of this package is worth exploring 1st.

 

[menobrown]

As promised, Follow-up from the completed trade. Flame on!

I made a long post yesterday covering why I like Puka so much but I never offered an opinion on the trade and will not as I don't play SF and don't feel like I my opinion means much when I don't have a proper grasp of QB value in that format.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As promised, Follow-up from the completed trade. Flame on!

I made a long post yesterday covering why I like Puka so much but I never offered an opinion on the trade and will not as I don't play SF and don't feel like I my opinion means much when I don't have a proper grasp of QB value in that format.

I’m failing at linking to my post. Weird.

I respect that - I’m happy with the value, but I’m sure others will frown upon moving Puka.

Believe me, I’m torn. I love him like I love my mamma’s cooking.

Anyway, check trade topic for end result.

 

[joey]

As promised, Follow-up from the completed trade. Flame on!

I made a long post yesterday covering why I like Puka so much but I never offered an opinion on the trade and will not as I don't play SF and don't feel like I my opinion means much when I don't have a proper grasp of QB value in that format.

Like Menobrown, I don’t play SF either.

I was having post-rookie-draft withdrawal last week and I went over to FFPC to possibly join a $100 SF start up just to mix it up, but visions of these SF trade offers in this thread, and over in the Dynasty Trades thread, made me think twice and I chickened out.

 

[Rirruto]

His upside is career back up. If literally everything goes right for him.

This seems to be worth mentioning - his upside is more like “starting QB for the falcons” if Cousins is injured, or if in 2 years they part ways.

career backup is his downside. Also possible. Not saying it’s not.

Fantasy cannot replicate real llfe. It shouldn't try. But SF gets QB value somewhere in the range of where it should be.

I do think SF adds appropriate value to QB in dynasty. But it also definitely creates a crazy economy for rookie QBs, or top 5-7 “elite” guys.

Let me raise my hand for being too black and white. I think the Bo Nix (who is who I mentioned. I'm low on Penix, but not as low as on Nix) comp is Sam Howell but with draft capital. If Sam Howell had been the 12 pick, he'd still have a lot of value in Washington today. So, I'm not really a hater. I just think an 8-10 year career as a backup after he gets his 2 year shot in Denver is in the top percentile of outcomes for him. That's a great career. I know I'm casting shade or being a hater, but I don't mean it that way.

I'll disagree on the downside. The downside is he's out of the league after 4 years. I kinda wish there was a betting site that would let you wager on whether a first rounder was going to sign a 5th year option. Feel like there's a ton of value on those bets this year. End of rant. Won't bring it up again.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

His upside is career back up. If literally everything goes right for him.

This seems to be worth mentioning - his upside is more like “starting QB for the falcons” if Cousins is injured, or if in 2 years they part ways.

career backup is his downside. Also possible. Not saying it’s not.

Fantasy cannot replicate real llfe. It shouldn't try. But SF gets QB value somewhere in the range of where it should be.

I do think SF adds appropriate value to QB in dynasty. But it also definitely creates a crazy economy for rookie QBs, or top 5-7 “elite” guys.

Let me raise my hand for being too black and white. I think the Bo Nix (who is who I mentioned. I'm low on Penix, but not as low as on Nix) comp is Sam Howell but with draft capital. If Sam Howell had been the 12 pick, he'd still have a lot of value in Washington today. So, I'm not really a hater. I just think an 8-10 year career as a backup after he gets his 2 year shot in Denver is in the top percentile of outcomes for him. That's a great career. I know I'm casting shade or being a hater, but I don't mean it that way.

I'll disagree on the downside. The downside is he's out of the league after 4 years. I kinda wish there was a betting site that would let you wager on whether a first rounder was going to sign a 5th year option. Feel like there's a ton of value on those bets this year. End of rant. Won't bring it up again.

Regardless, I don’t see either of them as comps to JJ McCarrhy, who seems like an elite prospect with high measurables ratings across the board.

so yeah, I agree that Superflex can falsely elevate the value of all QBs, I don’t believe JJM, Daniels, or Caleb were among them. They’re all good prospects.

I also like Spencer Rattler more than most.

And you’re right - any player’s floor is “out of the league”. But you’re being disingenuous when you state Pennix ceiling as “career backup”. That’s obviously false.

 

[Rirruto]

Oh, yeah. I was on a rant about superflex. Totally de-railed the thread. I was also talking about Nix, not Penix. But like I said, I'll shut up now. Have a great season everyone!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Oh, yeah. I was on a rant about superflex. Totally de-railed the thread. I was also talking about Nix, not Penix. But like I said, I'll shut up now. Have a great season everyone!

So far reports are that Nix is ahead of schedule, impressing people, etc.

Could be camp talk coachspeak “best shape of his life” type stuff, but that’s the word on the street.

I didn’t think you detailed anything - it’s all valid discussion in the dynasty value topic.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

 

[JoeJoe88]

What is Davante Adam's value in PPR leagues?

I gave up two 25’ 2nds for him a month ago.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Oh, yeah. I was on a rant about superflex. Totally de-railed the thread. I was also talking about Nix, not Penix. But like I said, I'll shut up now. Have a great season everyone!

So far reports are that Nix is ahead of schedule, impressing people, etc.

Could be camp talk coachspeak “best shape of his life” type stuff, but that’s the word on the street.

I didn’t think you detailed anything - it’s all valid discussion in the dynasty value topic.

Is Nix in the top tier of QB prospects? No. I do think he can be an above average starter in the league for years. Payton hand picked this kid after a LOT of apparent research. I suspect as long as the two of them together, they will do quite well. Given that, I think he is a supreme value in superflex.