Dynasty Value: Want this? Get that. (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Pick a potential trade target, then provide a cheaper alternative that you expect to provide better value. 

I'll start:

Want: Doug Baldwin (ADP 38)
Get: Golden Tate (ADP 60)
Why: Same age; similar track records; Tate outscored Baldwin last year.

Want: Corey Davis (ADP 28)
Get: Mike Williams (ADP 70)
Why: The MASSIVE gap in ADP is simply overstated. While Davis was the better prospect, there is no reason he should be given a complete mulligan while we close the book on Mike. Both disappointed, one comes at a discount. 

Want: Deshaun Watson (ADP 64)
Get: Dak Prescott (ADP 115)
Why: Here are the only QBs in NFL history to score more fantasy points than Dak Prescott in their first two seasons: Luck, Newton. Dak is still the elite dynasty QB he was before Zeke went down. I love Watson, but his TD rate was fluky and will come tumbling back down to earth. When it does, his ADP will do the same.

 

[Snorkelson]

Pick a potential trade target, then provide a cheaper alternative that you expect to provide better value. 

I'll start:

Want: Doug Baldwin (ADP 38)
Get: Golden Tate (ADP 60)
Why: Same age; similar track records; Tate outscored Baldwin last year.

Want: Corey Davis (ADP 28)
Get: Mike Williams (ADP 70)
Why: The MASSIVE gap in ADP is simply overstated. While Davis was the better prospect, there is no reason he should be given a complete mulligan while we close the book on Mike. Both disappointed, one comes at a discount. 

Want: Deshaun Watson (ADP 64)
Get: Dak Prescott (ADP 115)
Why: Here are the only QBs in NFL history to score more fantasy points than Dak Prescott in their first two seasons: Luck, Newton. Dak is still the elite dynasty QB he was before Zeke went down. I love Watson, but his TD rate was fluky and will come tumbling back down to earth. When it does, his ADP will do the same.

Love the idea behind the thread. I’m not in the dak hype train but perhaps I’m going to be wrong. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I like the idea, but can't support the Mike Williams argument. The problem is not just the mulligan. It's that Corey Davis is the clear WR1 in Tennessee. MW is the WR2 at best in SD LA. Keenan is only 2 years older than MW and he's not going anywhere.

Edit: what source you using for ADP? I'll use the same source if I add some guys here.

 

[bostonfred]

Did you create the same thread on Reddit or did one of you rip it off? 

 

[Jacksonke1]

Did you create the same thread on Reddit or did one of you rip it off? 

Does it really matter? Almost any thoughts, strategies and rankings here exist somewhere else.

 

[bostonfred]

Does it really matter? Almost any thoughts, strategies and rankings here exist somewhere else.

No, I was legitimately asking if he's the same poster or not and if he pulled it from Reddit because I've been posting here for going on 20 years and he's been here quite a while and I was curious. 

 

[Concept Coop]

I like the idea, but can't support the Mike Williams argument. The problem is not just the mulligan. It's that Corey Davis is the clear WR1 in Tennessee. MW is the WR2 at best in SD LA. Keenan is only 2 years older than MW and he's not going anywhere.

Edit: what source you using for ADP? I'll use the same source if I add some guys here.

I'm not really sure the #1 spot in Tennessee is any more conducive to fantasy production than the #2 spot in LA(C), honestly.  At the very least, I don't think we'll look back in 5 years and say it was the difference between Davis panning out and Williams not. 

I think it's perfectly reasonable to prefer Davis' spot.  I think I do myself.  And I certainly prefer Davis straight up, in a vacuum.  But I'd rather gamble on Williams with extra parts than trade a foundation piece for Davis.  

I use DLF's.  DynastyFFtools does their own, I believe, as do a few other places, if you don't want to pay for DLF.  

 

[Concept Coop]

Did you create the same thread on Reddit or did one of you rip it off? 

I did.  

 

[FF Ninja]

Want: Alshon (ADP 35)
Get: Marvin (ADP 54)
Why: Same age; similar stats the past two years; Marvin was much more productive with his targets last year

P.S. I had to copy and paste because when I hit enter it skips a line which I find annoying. Can anybody tell me if there a setting I'm unaware of to turn that line skipping off?

 

[Concept Coop]

Want: Alshon (ADP 35)
Get: Marvin (ADP 54)
Why: Same age; similar stats the past two years; Marvin was much more productive with his targets last year

P.S. I had to copy and paste because when I hit enter it skips a line which I find annoying. Can anybody tell me if there a setting I'm unaware of to turn that line skipping off?

Shift+Enter

 

[FF Ninja]

Want: Crowder (ADP 78)
Get: Cobb (ADP 122)
Why: Same stats... what's more important 3 years (27.5 vs 24.7) or 44 draft spots?

 

[Biabreakable]

I like the thread idea as very often you can find a similar player at the same position that is much cheaper than another and perhaps not much difference in the actual return.

The Baldwin vs Tate example is a perfect one for this. To me they are essentially the same player for FF so I would rather have the one with the lower price. Tate is in a contract year so perhaps that uncertainty is affecting his value in a negative way? It usually is a positive as the player has extra motivation to do well for their next contract.

The gap between Davis and Williams doesn't really surprise me. I consider Mike WIlliams as having WR 2 upside for fantasy while I think Davis has WR 1 upside. They are not even the same tier of value for me. I recognize that in the NFL draft both of these players were top 10 picks, so based off of that one might think they should be close to the same value but I have never seen it that way and based on the ADP I guess other people do not think they are very close either. Not as close as you seem to think they are. What if we put John Ross in there instead of Williams? He was also a very high draft pick like Williams and Davis. I think the gap between Davis and Williams or Ross is justified even though Davis did not deliver on his potential as a rookie, I think he will. I see the coaching change as a positive step. Mariota and Davis do need to play better than they have though. It is possible I am wrong about the gap in their value and they are closer to the same than I think they are.

I was amazed with what Prescott was able to do as a rookie and I thought he was being over valued going into last season in dynasty formats. So the same may be the case for Watson here, based on an even smaller sample size for Watson than it was for Presscott. Daks numbers actually improved in his second year in terms of total pass attempts but the completion percentage and yardage fell. He did not throw for more TD with the increased attempts and he threw more interceptions. The yards per attempt fell from a respectable 8 to 6.8 which is a bit below average. The rushing yards improved and rushing TD stayed the same. Dak was sacked more times last season than he was as a rookie.

How he played without Elliot in the line up is something that should give folks some pause.

9 2017-11-12 9 24-106 DAL @ ATL L 7-27 * 20 30 66.67 176 0 0 82.1 8
10 2017-11-19 10 24-113 DAL PHI L 9-37 * 18 31 58.06 145 0 3 30.4 4
11 2017-11-23 11 24-117 DAL LAC L 6-28 * 20 27 74.07 179 0 2 60.6 2
12 2017-11-30 12 24-124 DAL WAS W 38-14 * 11 22 50.00 102 2 0 93.4 1
13 2017-12-10 13 24-134 DAL @ NYG W 30-10 * 20 30 66.67 332 3 0 137.1 0
14 2017-12-17 14 24-141 DAL @ OAK W 20-17 * 18 27 66.67 212 0 2 59.5 2


Only one out of 6 of these games could I consider a good game against the Giants. His averages from this set of games is lower than his career averages.

Dak needs some help from his receivers I think to take the next step.

In my personal view Watson and Prescott are closer to the same value than the ADP suggests although I do like Watson more, not that much more.

Having a source for ADP that is open access for the purpose of discussion may help more people contribute to the discussion with their own examples. ADP around this time of year is likely based on mock drafts more than real ones.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Dez/Hogan 55->140 TD-heavy older WR3s with small chance of a dominant season still in them.

Shepard/Goodwin 60->126 Injury prone, a couple great games last year, better off as NFL WR2.

Foreman/Jamaal Williams 98->131 I was on the opposite side of the fence last offseason but I would swap these positions easily.

Crowell/Burkhead 112->166 Free Agency roulette but assuming both Lewis and Crowell change teams I'd like Burkhead here.

Mack/Breida 96->167 Second year RB with chance at 1b role in good offense.

Goff/Cousins 95->121 Obviously wait on QB is an easy strategy in dynasty. Cousins is older than Goff but has a lot of mileage left. Ben Roethlisberger.

Rudolph/Eifert 106->157 Don't take Rudolph just to have a starter. Wait on TE just like QB if you can't get an elite one. Delanie Walker, as well. Why not start Ben and Delanie next year.

 

[Snorkelson]

I don’t think Tate being in a contract year is widely known at this point. I’m a lions fan and I didn’t realize it until tartenlion and ilove80s were looking at Moore in the mock. I don’t think the average mock drafter probably knows that. Baldwin is a bit overvalued- his td production dipped last year and owners felt it. I think Tate’s value is in the right spot, but I can’t envision myself taking Baldwin at the top of the 3rd in a startup. 

@thriftyrocker adp seems skewed- Williams at 131 and foreman coming off a terrible injury at 98? No brainer. Williams at 131 seems realllly late for a guy who could possibly be the lead back in a good offense. Brieda at 167? Seems really late. He looked better than Mack in his role this year, it’s hard to believe he would be going 70 spots later, and with hyde set to be a fa perhaps Breida is a dark horse to start for an offense that cranks out rbs. Hard to believe anyone spends an 8th rd pick on Mack with barkley being mocked to Indy so often. 

 

[-OZ-]

Don't know how accurate the list is, but I'll use https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp?

QB

Want Jimmy garapalo (QB5/4.09)

Get Patrick Mahomes (QB13/9.03)

I suspect this won't hold true by August but for now if you want to take a chance with a first year starter, you can wait a little longer or perhaps in a 12 team league draft an older veteran like Brady or Stafford and then Mahomes.

RB

Want Alvin Kamara (RB4/1.07)

Get Christian McCaffery (RB10/2.06)

I won't argue against Kamara, even in the first. Dude can play. But for now much of his value is because he's a very good receiving back. McCaffery is every bit as good a receiving back and looks to take a larger role next year. Saints offense is better than the Panthers, but how long will they have Brees? 

WR

Want Amari Cooper (WR11/3.02)

Get Adam Thielen (WR45/12.01)

I highly doubt Thielen actually goes that late but he will probably be a value pick, just not quite that crazy a value. He actually went above Cooper in the FBG mocks (redraft), but if he's falling in dynasty grab him. 

TE - I don't see anything on that list that screams out. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think Shepard can be considered injury prone. He played all 16 games as a rookie, playing 95% of the snaps (he played 1005 offensive snaps that year). 

Burkhead is about to turn 28, coming off a season where he missed 6 games. I don't think any NFL teams see him as a starter. Crowell has averaged well over 200 touches the past 3 seasons, is only 25, and has never missed a game to injury in his career. They are both free agents. I expect their roles and contracts to be significantly different. I think Crowell is actually a value where he is being drafted, but part of that could be due to free agency uncertainty. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Don't know how accurate the list is, but I'll use https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp?

QB

Want Jimmy garapalo (QB5/4.09)

Get Patrick Mahomes (QB13/9.03)

I suspect this won't hold true by August but for now if you want to take a chance with a first year starter, you can wait a little longer or perhaps in a 12 team league draft an older veteran like Brady or Stafford and then Mahomes.

This is the first one I thought of as well, but you might have to wait a few years on Mahomes, while Garropolo is locked and loaded.  It would be a surprise if they had similar production this year IMO.

 

[-OZ-]

This is the first one I thought of as well, but you might have to wait a few years on Mahomes, while Garropolo is locked and loaded.  It would be a surprise if they had similar production this year IMO.

Perhaps. But if Jimmy G really is going as QB5, in the 4th, I'd much rather use my normal strategy in dynasty of taking one youngish qb who has started a few years, an unproven guy, and an older QB.

Just going off that list, I'll take Mariota and Mahomes at the 8/9 turn and then Brees or Ben late. Some may not like using 3 slots for QB, but with none going in the first 7 rounds it usually works. Last year I did this with Russell Wilson, Brees and garapalo. 

 

[Concept Coop]

@Biabreakable

Davis/Williams is different from my other two picks, in that I do have a tier (at least) between them.  But let me ask you: Davis and 1.08 or 1.02 and Williams?  

Dak had a rough stretch, certainly.  But he had, arguably, the best rookie QB season in the last decade plus.  He was the highest scoring fantasy QB before Zeke was suspended.  (The backup LT play was awful during that stretch as well). I have little doubt that Dak will bounce back and not be defined by that 6 game stretch, as ugly as it was.  The rushing production is huge, especially in 4 pt passing leagues - so he won't need to be a top 5 NFL QB in order to put up top 5 fantasy numbers.  I'm all in on Dak at his current ADP.  I like Watson a lot after what he flashed last season, but I'm out at his current ADP.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't think Shepard can be considered injury prone. He played all 16 games as a rookie, playing 95% of the snaps (he played 1005 offensive snaps that year). 

Burkhead is about to turn 28, coming off a season where he missed 6 games. I don't think any NFL teams see him as a starter. Crowell has averaged well over 200 touches the past 3 seasons, is only 25, and has never missed a game to injury in his career. They are both free agents. I expect their roles and contracts to be significantly different. I think Crowell is actually a value where he is being drafted, but part of that could be due to free agency uncertainty. 

Injury prone is perhaps not the right word, but he missed 2 games due to migraines which is a bad sign for future reliability since it is not a condition that can be cured.

I view Crowell as similar to Ivory a few years back and will not be swayed too much if a bad team overpays for him. There are scenarios where he could be worth that current ADP, but most not. I don't care about Burkhead's age or being a "starter" if he stays in NE and other people leave. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Injury prone is perhaps not the right word, but he missed 2 games due to migraines which is a bad sign for future reliability since it is not a condition that can be cured.

I view Crowell as similar to Ivory a few years back and will not be swayed too much if a bad team overpays for him. There are scenarios where he could be worth that current ADP, but most not. I don't care about Burkhead's age or being a "starter" if he stays in NE and other people leave. 

Ivory had a slow and injury marred start to his career that led to him being an undervalued talent, but keep in mind that in 2015 (age 27) he missed a game and still finished RB7. He was RB20 the year before. And the Jets were not a very potent offense at the time, IIRC. So aside from Ivory's injury concerns, I don't really disagree on the comp. 

As for Burkhead, in dynasty you should be concerned about age. And he's a FA, so it's not like it's a guarantee he'll actually be in NE or that they will not bring in a replacement for Dion (assuming Dion doesn't sign with NE - he definitely could). Would be kind of funny if NE cut Gillislee and brought in Crowell instead... Doubt it happens, just saying there are a lot of possibilities when comparing two free agents. In general, I'll always take the younger, durable guy with a likelihood of more touches. 

 

[thriftyrocker]

As for Burkhead, in dynasty you should be concerned about age. And he's a FA, so it's not like it's a guarantee he'll actually be in NE or that they will not bring in a replacement for Dion (assuming Dion doesn't sign with NE - he definitely could). Would be kind of funny if NE cut Gillislee and brought in Crowell instead... Doubt it happens, just saying there are a lot of possibilities when comparing two free agents. In general, I'll always take the younger, durable guy with a likelihood of more touches. 

Well at that point in the draft I'm willing to live with age. I don't want to get too caught up on age for RB not in their rookie contract. Not elite RB get replaced, a year or two is fine for a cheap RB, if he really is cheap (not bypassing someone good to get him).

NE will always be a mystery, but willing to gamble/speculate on it given they've put up decent fantasy RB recently.

 

[Concept Coop]

Well at that point in the draft I'm willing to live with age. I don't want to get too caught up on age for RB not in their rookie contract. Not elite RB get replaced, a year or two is fine for a cheap RB, if he really is cheap (not bypassing someone good to get him).

NE will always be a mystery, but willing to gamble/speculate on it given they've put up decent fantasy RB recently.

Isn't James White a buy as well?  He was putting up points before Lewis took over those touches.  If Brady takes a step back, the short stuff could be more appealing for that offense. 

 

[Biabreakable]

@Biabreakable

Davis/Williams is different from my other two picks, in that I do have a tier (at least) between them.  But let me ask you: Davis and 1.08 or 1.02 and Williams?  

Dak had a rough stretch, certainly.  But he had, arguably, the best rookie QB season in the last decade plus.  He was the highest scoring fantasy QB before Zeke was suspended.  (The backup LT play was awful during that stretch as well). I have little doubt that Dak will bounce back and not be defined by that 6 game stretch, as ugly as it was.  The rushing production is huge, especially in 4 pt passing leagues - so he won't need to be a top 5 NFL QB in order to put up top 5 fantasy numbers.  I'm all in on Dak at his current ADP.  I like Watson a lot after what he flashed last season, but I'm out at his current ADP.

I am not sure if I follow your question.

The value of the rookie pick 1.02 compared to pick 1.08 is something I cannot really put a name to who pick 1.08 might be but 1.02 would likely be Guice who is a really nice RB prospect. Pick 1.08 may be one of the WR who may not be NFL 1st round picks. I haven't watched any of the WR yet. Maybe when I do I will really like some of them but until I do it is hard for me to place a value on pick 8 who that might be and how I might compare that player to Williams.

Calvin Ridley is likely the best WR from this draft class but I am not sure if I would rank him over WIlliams or Ross right now. I consider Ridley a tier two WR which is in the same tier as WIlliams and Ross last year. I am not sure if Ridley will be selected before pick 1.08 or not. I am guessing he might be 6th. So pick 1.08 may be Washington or Moore or something like that.

As far as Dak vs Watson I do like Watson more but I would alsways prefer to take the cheaper QB when I see them as about the same potential for fantasy. Watson is being over valued right now just as Dak was over valued coming off of last season. I would much rather have Dak in round 9 than to take Watson in round 5.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am not sure if I follow your question.

Would you rather pay the 1.02 for Davis or the 1.08 for Williams?  (And actually, I think it's closer to 1.10 for Williams.)  

I'm not arguing that Williams is an equal prospect, just that he offers better value. 

As far as Dak vs Watson I do like Watson more but I would alsways prefer to take the cheaper QB when I see them as about the same potential for fantasy. Watson is being over valued right now just as Dak was over valued coming off of last season. I would much rather have Dak in round 9 than to take Watson in round 5.

I'd argue the opposite, actually.  ADP wise, he was QB11.  I have him much higher than that in my rankings today. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Would you rather pay the 1.02 for Davis or the 1.08 for Williams?  (And actually, I think it's closer to 1.10 for Williams.)  

I'm not arguing that Williams is an equal prospect, just that he offers better value. 

I'd argue the opposite, actually.  ADP wise, he was QB11.  I have him much higher than that in my rankings today. 

I would rather pay the 1.02 for Davis than 1.08 for Williams.

QB 11 seems high to me for Dak Prescott last year. There were 3 young QB who were all relatively high picks that had bad seasons besides Prescott in Carr, Winston and Mariota that maybe should not have been drafted ahead of him based on what those QB did in 2017. I believe Andrew Luck was selected before Prescott as well and we don't know the status of his health or at least I don't right now.

I just generally do not value QB very highly in fantasy so any QB is going to look over valued to me.

A friend of mine did a start up last year and I thought he took Dak Prescott too high in his start up draft. I forget exactly where he selected him though.

He only had one season at that time so I felt it was premature to be valuing him as a top 10 QB.

It depends on your scoring format as well as Prescott was QB6 in 2016 and QB 9 in 2017 using 4 points per passing TD. In leagues where QB get 6 points for each passing TD he was 7th and 16th. 

I play in more leagues with 6 points per passing TD so his finish at QB 16 last season fell short of the QB 11 ADP.

 

[Gawain]

Meanwhile jimmy g is qb5 above. Feels dicey, with all upside baked in.

 

[joey]

:converse:

 

[Concept Coop]

QB 11 seems high to me for Dak Prescott last year. There were 3 young QB who were all relatively high picks that had bad seasons besides Prescott in Carr, Winston and Mariota that maybe should not have been drafted ahead of him based on what those QB did in 2017. I believe Andrew Luck was selected before Prescott as well and we don't know the status of his health or at least I don't right now.

A friend of mine did a start up last year and I thought he took Dak Prescott too high in his start up draft. I forget exactly where he selected him though.

He only had one season at that time so I felt it was premature to be valuing him as a top 10 QB.

It depends on your scoring format as well as Prescott was QB6 in 2016 and QB 9 in 2017 using 4 points per passing TD. In leagues where QB get 6 points for each passing TD he was 7th and 16th. 

I play in more leagues with 6 points per passing TD so his finish at QB 16 last season fell short of the QB 11 ADP.

Dak was the top scoring QB prior to the Cowboys losing their best 2 offensive players.   Zeke wasn't in shape to start the season and missed 6 games; Collins struggled early at RT; Cooper struggled early at LG; Smith's back caused him to miss 4 games, and he wasn't himself when he did play; the backup LT play was awful; all 3 of Dak's receiving weapons lost a step (Dez, Beasley, Witten); and according to both the Cowboys and their opponents, the play calling was predictable.  

I think you're being a bit harsh, considering the circumstances.  Dak isn't ready to carry an NFL offense on his shoulders.  But he's young and, for fantasy purposes, he won't need to as long as he keeps up his rushing production.  

 

[Biabreakable]

I am leery about the sustainable success of the read option as a focal point of the offense. It has been working to great success with Elliot but without that rushing threat it isn't as effective.

I watched a thing on Jason Garrett at some point last season and the offense being predictable if true does not surprise me. With a healthy WIlliams all season the offense should definitely improve though and QB often do take a step forward in their 3rd season in the league. On that note I tend to prefer more proven QB who are older. I don't like investing a lot of resources into young QBs who may or may not pan out.

The components are there for him to improve as a passer if they can upgrade at the WR position and I may be more interested in Dak Prescott if he does, in a few seasons from now.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am leery about the sustainable success of the read option as a focal point of the offense. It has been working to great success with Elliot but without that rushing threat it isn't as effective.

I watched a thing on Jason Garrett at some point last season and the offense being predictable if true does not surprise me. With a healthy WIlliams all season the offense should definitely improve though and QB often do take a step forward in their 3rd season in the league. On that note I tend to prefer more proven QB who are older. I don't like investing a lot of resources into young QBs who may or may not pan out.

The components are there for him to improve as a passer if they can upgrade at the WR position and I may be more interested in Dak Prescott if he does, in a few seasons from now.

For the record, the Cowboys only run the read option a few times a game.  They run the same offense they ran with Tony, outside of that, just simplified and tailored a bit.  

I think there's a good chance Dak ends up being a good QB, but feel even better about his fantasy chances, personally.  Scoring does make a difference, as you point out.  

I respect your call.  We'll see.   

 

[Biabreakable]

For the record, the Cowboys only run the read option a few times a game.  They run the same offense they ran with Tony, outside of that, just simplified and tailored a bit.  

I think there's a good chance Dak ends up being a good QB, but feel even better about his fantasy chances, personally.  Scoring does make a difference, as you point out.  

I respect your call.  We'll see.   

I don't know the frequency of their use of the read option I just know that Dak didn't play very well with Elliot out of the line up.

The Cowboys did add more read option elements to their offense for Dak Prescott. Perhaps they used them more in 2016 than 2017? I'm really not sure.

Recently Dak Prescott is talking about wanting to run a more Dak friendly offense, which is basically wanting to run something similar to the Panthers or Chiefs. More run pass options and opportunities to run the football within the offense. He has scored a lot of his rushing TD off of read option plays.

I do watch the Cowboys because they are so often forced on me by network television, but if I have the option I will usually watch a different game than the Cowboys. I am still a bit bothered by the Hershel Walker trade which means the Cowboys are one of my least favorite teams.

 

[barackdhouse]

*All stars*

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I would rather pay the 1.02 for Davis than 1.08 for Williams.

QB 11 seems high to me for Dak Prescott last year. There were 3 young QB who were all relatively high picks that had bad seasons besides Prescott in Carr, Winston and Mariota that maybe should not have been drafted ahead of him based on what those QB did in 2017. I believe Andrew Luck was selected before Prescott as well and we don't know the status of his health or at least I don't right now.

I just generally do not value QB very highly in fantasy so any QB is going to look over valued to me.

A friend of mine did a start up last year and I thought he took Dak Prescott too high in his start up draft. I forget exactly where he selected him though.

He only had one season at that time so I felt it was premature to be valuing him as a top 10 QB.

It depends on your scoring format as well as Prescott was QB6 in 2016 and QB 9 in 2017 using 4 points per passing TD. In leagues where QB get 6 points for each passing TD he was 7th and 16th. 

I play in more leagues with 6 points per passing TD so his finish at QB 16 last season fell short of the QB 11 ADP.

Dak basically has 1.5 seasons of top 5 fantasy QB play and half a season of terrible play.  Almost like some QB that you might expect out of a young QB.  But the 1.5 seasons of top 5 QB play is not something you expect out of a QB this young.

 

[Biabreakable]

Dak basically has 1.5 seasons of top 5 fantasy QB play and half a season of terrible play.  Almost like some QB that you might expect out of a young QB.  But the 1.5 seasons of top 5 QB play is not something you expect out of a QB this young.

He has been good and I am not really against the price if we are talking about the 9th round of a start up or similar value in trade. I am against Watsons ADP of 64 and I was against Prescott being drafted this high last season. Maybe people were not drafting Prescott this high last season but I think he was still being drafted higher than he should be based on only one season.

Presscott has been good from the beginning a lot like Russell Wilson in that a later round pick at QB who hits right away. I am still in the wait and see camp because of the play when Elliot was out. A QB should be able to carry their team and even thrive in such a situation and he didn't really do that. Maybe in a couple seasons he will be able to do that.

The only thing Coop and I were arguing about is if Prescott was over valued after his first season or not and similarly is Watson being over valued right now. This somewhat depends on how they play over the next few seasons. Maybe they are both perennial top 12 QBs for fantasy the next 3-5 seasons. Maybe one of them is and one of them isn't. Maybe nether of them are. 1.5 seasons of playing at a high level so early in Prescotts career is a very promising sign that he could be.

 

[Snorkelson]

Want Jarvis Landry, Big multi year contract 

get martavis bryant, pennies in the dollar. 

Sorry, this one is for real life:/

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He has been good and I am not really against the price if we are talking about the 9th round of a start up or similar value in trade. I am against Watsons ADP of 64 and I was against Prescott being drafted this high last season. Maybe people were not drafting Prescott this high last season but I think he was still being drafted higher than he should be based on only one season.

Presscott has been good from the beginning a lot like Russell Wilson in that a later round pick at QB who hits right away. I am still in the wait and see camp because of the play when Elliot was out. A QB should be able to carry their team and even thrive in such a situation and he didn't really do that. Maybe in a couple seasons he will be able to do that.

The only thing Coop and I were arguing about is if Prescott was over valued after his first season or not and similarly is Watson being over valued right now. This somewhat depends on how they play over the next few seasons. Maybe they are both perennial top 12 QBs for fantasy the next 3-5 seasons. Maybe one of them is and one of them isn't. Maybe nether of them are. 1.5 seasons of playing at a high level so early in Prescotts career is a very promising sign that he could be.

I mostly agree with everything you're saying.  All I'll say about the bolded is that Wilson, Big Ben, Brady who were all similarly young game managers with good efficiency were still not able to put their teams on their back for a whole season at this point in their careers.  Obviously he's not those guys yet but he's on a pretty similar (if not accelerated) career path from a fantasy perspective.

He could be a total bust but at his buying price that wouldn't really even hurt that much.  He was QB7 as a rookie and QB1 for the first half of his 2nd year and his value is not at all commensurate with that performance.  I think he is a bigtime buy at his current prices.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Want Jarvis Landry, Big multi year contract 

get martavis bryant, pennies in the dollar. 

Sorry, this one is for real life:/

for the lions? WR is not a position of need. 

 

[Snorkelson]

for the lions? WR is not a position of need. 

No for any team. If a team wants Landry, they’ll have to pay him and give up more in a trade than if you got bryant. I think Landry and a big contract is a mistake, whereas Marty b could be a bigger playmaker for a lot less cost. 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

No for any team. If a team wants Landry, they’ll have to pay him and give up more in a trade than if you got bryant. I think Landry and a big contract is a mistake, whereas Marty b could be a bigger playmaker for a lot less cost. 

Oh I see. 

Teams don't overpay for anything, why pay landry and compensate the dolphins?

Bryant is an odd case, he is a doobie away from a long suspension, I think he will find the market rather cold. unless pitt wants a 5th rounder.

 

[voiceofunreason]

This is the first one I thought of as well, but you might have to wait a few years on Mahomes, while Garropolo is locked and loaded.  It would be a surprise if they had similar production this year IMO.

49ers have no talent around him. I think Mahomes should outscore him this year. He’ll run a lot and we know he’ll throw a lot with Reid. And the chiefs have a lot of talent.

 

[Snorkelson]

49ers have no talent around him. I think Mahomes should outscore him this year. He’ll run a lot and we know he’ll throw a lot with Reid. And the chiefs have a lot of talent.

A lot of people think mahomes will still take a couple years to develop- I disagree. I think the chiefs are an up and coming young team. The defense may take a step back and make them throw more, and the offensive pieces are there. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I mostly agree with everything you're saying.  All I'll say about the bolded is that Wilson, Big Ben, Brady who were all similarly young game managers with good efficiency were still not able to put their teams on their back for a whole season at this point in their careers.  Obviously he's not those guys yet but he's on a pretty similar (if not accelerated) career path from a fantasy perspective.

He could be a total bust but at his buying price that wouldn't really even hurt that much.  He was QB7 as a rookie and QB1 for the first half of his 2nd year and his value is not at all commensurate with that performance.  I think he is a bigtime buy at his current prices.

I always thought Ben would end up putting up good numbers later in his career several seasons before he actually did. His early years the Steelers ran the ball so much, they didn't really have him throw the ball much until his 4th season in the league which was the first time he was in the top 12 QB. Ben actually only had 404 passing attempts in his 4th season, but he threw for 32 TD!  Dak Prescott is actually ahead of him as far as that development goes. Tom Brady didn't start putting up top 12 numbers until his 3rd season. What Brady was doing was not based on his running ability at all is the main difference for me in regards to that comparison. The rushing yards certainly give a QB an advantage but I have to question how repeatable and consistent that will be. Plenty of running QB have bad years if they do not develop enough as passers.

Tyrod Taylor had a top 12 fantasy season in 2016 to give a recent example of QB who can do well for fantasy without passing for 4k yards and 20 TD but I feel more confident in the sustainability of a QB who is doing most of their work as a passer. 6 rushing TD could easily be only 3 next year on the same rushing attempts and if Prescott does not throw for more yards he won't finish that high, that is how precarious those rushing TD are. It can make a huge difference to the bottom line. Yards per attempt as a rookie was above average, last season this was below average.