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travdogg's positional rankings as of 8-15-23 (1 Viewer)

T

travdogg

Footballguy
Seemed time for an update after the 1st week of preseason. I do plan on doing weekly rankings during the season. Previous Rankings from June are in parenthesis.

QB
Tier 1:

1. Josh Allen (2), he's on the best 3 run in history, and added a 1st round TE, and has an elusive 2nd year back with an expanded role.

2. Patrick Mahomes (3), may have the highest floor, and proved he didn't need Tyreek Hill to be elite. Fantasy wise, I think he's the new Peyton Manning, where he probably won't finish #1, but he'll never bust.

3. Jalen Hurts (1), was #1 in PPG last year, and could have a higher volume than last season, but when push has come to shove, I haven't been able to pull the trigger on him over Allen/Mahomes.

Tier 2:

4. Lamar Jackson (5), has shown a #1 ceiling, and has the best supporting cast of his career. Even last year was #6 PPG.

Tier 3:

5. Justin Fields (4), was QB2 PPG once he started really running. Has better weapons now than ever, but I have some concern the running could be toned down a bit and while NFL wise that is probably good, its probably not fantasy wise.

6. Joe Burrow (6), QB8 and QB4 the past 2 years. He's kinda discount Mahomes.

7. Justin Herbert (8), a season removed from a top-3 finish, don't underestimate the Kellen Moore addition, Chargers should be adding at least a full game worth of plays with Moore's fast pace playcalling.

Tier 4:
8. Trevor Lawrence (7), QB11 PPG last year, and added Ridley. Some think he's ready for a Burrow-ish leap, but I think its wise to temper expectations a bit.

9. Deshaun Watson (9), as bad as he looked last season, I'm choosing to believe it was just rust, and his legs still looked fine. If he had been a little better last year, I'd probably have him above Lawrence.

Tier 5:
10. Anthony Richardson (10), no surprise he won the job in camp. I'm expecting Jalen Hurts-esq rushing numbers (less TDs due to quality of offense) the passing will probably be closer to 2022 Fields, but that's not a killer. Best paired with a steady #2, perhaps...

11. Kirk Cousins (NR), I've gotten a lot higher on him this summer. His weapons are arguably the best he's ever had, he's in the most pass heavy offense of his career, and he's actually had some pretty poor TD luck. He's a pretty safe bet for 4200-30 and both numbers could be quite a bit higher. If he ran at all, he wouldn't be that far behind Herbert.

12. Tua Tagovailoa (15), I've moved him up a bit just off his potential top-8 ceiling, but he's one of the few guys I'm choosing to dock a bit for injury risk. To me Achilles, neck/spine, and concussions are the only injuries I really worry about, everything else is pretty recoverable in my opinion, keep that in mind if I seem too high for ACL guys.

Tier 6:

13. Geno Smith (12), if he didn't have close to a decade of failure to his name, I would probably have him 2 tiers higher, but I just can't get over the fact he could be a 1-year wonder. If I were playing fantasy 25 years ago, I probably would have doubted Rich Gannon for the same reason, but I get a slight 2015 Fitzmagic (a teammate at the time) vibe from Geno.

14. Daniel Jones (11), doesn't have much of a ceiling in my opinion, and I'm not 100% sure his 700-7 rushing is repeatable, though I expect it won't be too far off. Still if it is, he's startable any given week, as rushing is king for QBs.

15. Aaron Rodgers (14), part of me wants to be higher. Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder has top-5 upside, as recently as 2020. Having said that, I still think NY tries to win with rushing and defense, and Rodgers just gives them an option for if that fails.

Dropped off:
Dak Prescott (13), I think losing Kellen Moore hurts a ton, for both play volume, and aggressiveness. Also, Dak isn't chipping in those 4-5 TDs on the ground he did pre-ankle injury. I think Dak should play better than last season, but it may not be fantasy wise, but avoiding turnovers wise.
 
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RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1), highest floor at the position and while the ceiling required Deebo to get hurt, a full offseason to learn the system could make CMC even more dangerous.

2. Nick Chubb (11), this is BY FAR my biggest move of the summer. I've become pretty convinced that Chubb is gonna have 40+ catches and have a career season. He may lose some carry volume, but I don't see the TDs going anywhere.

3. Austin Ekeler (2), catches should come down a little just with better health around him, but no reason the TDs go anywhere.

4. Bijan Robinson (4), I think he's stepping into a very similar spot as Zeke in 2016, where an already elite running team adds a big time RB. I think Allgeier/Patterson are solid, but they are bit players in this offense now.

5. Saquon Barkley (6), I think he's very overrated as a talent, but he's also my pick to lead the NFL in touches, so he can only be faded so far. NFL talent wise, I think he's closer to RB15 than RB5.

6. Tony Pollard (3), no concerns about him holding up as the main RB, my concerns lie more with the offense missing Moore. Pollard has an RB1 overall ceiling if things break right, but he's also the least proven guy in the top-9 besides Bijan.

Tier 2:
7. Derrick Henry (10), more confident in him after the Hopkins signing. Pretty tough to keep 8 in the box and play Hopkins 1-1 all game long. I do wonder if Spears takes some of Henry's new found receiving work, but I think Henry is still a pretty safe pick.

8. Jonathan Taylor (5), its possible I'm overreacting but between the ankle, Richardson taking rushing TDs, and the low receiving work, I'm seeing Taylor as basically Henry, but less trustworthy.

9. Josh Jacobs (9), I'm confident he'll show before the season starts, and possibly see just as much as last year, but I also have some concerns the Raiders might just be garbage. I do think there is a pretty big dropoff to...

Tier 3:
10. Rhamondre Stevenson (7), I'm not THAT worried about Zeke, Stevenson should still be the centerpiece of the offense, but the TD pie wasn't all that big to begin with. I'm not a believer in the RB dead zone theory, but 9 to 10 might be a bigger dropoff than from 1 to 9 as evidenced by...

11. Travis Etienne (15), I haven't gotten higher on him at all, I've gotten lower on those around him. I still see a guy who could be a 2-down Rb who gets pulled at the GL. I'll bet on his outstanding explosiveness, but he's basically a rich man's Miles Sanders to me.

12. Breece Hall (8), Cook is an issue and one who could take 40+% of the work, I think Hall is a better RB, especially as a receiver and at the GL. But Cook lowers the ceiling quite a bit.

13. Najee Harris (14) really poor man's Barkley, where the workload is his value, not really anything he does himself. If he got hurt, I'd probably have this as Jaylen Warren's floor, as Tomlin loves his 1 RB offense. Possible the offense makes a jump and Harris has a TD spike at least.

14. Joe Mixon (19) I'm under the impression he won't be suspended or jailed. I think his demise has been grossly overstated. He was RB3 in 2021, and is a huge part of the offense, particularly at the GL.

Tier 4:

15. Jahmyr Gibbs (13), I'm a little wary of the Lions being a great offense, I just don't trust them. I think Gibbs could potentially leave Montgomery in the dust, but it could also be close to a 50-50 RBBC, at least to start the season.

16. Kenneth Walker (16), truth be told, the only real difference between him and Etienne is the difference between Charbonnet and Bigsby. He and Gibbs have kinda switched this summer where I was getting Gibbs and seeing Walker go too high, and now I think the reverse could be happening.

17. Alexander Mattison (20), I think he's just an ok RB, but has zero competition in Minnesota. I think 10 TDs is an over/under right now.
 
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Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (18), similar to Etienne/Walker but with more question marks.

19. Aaron Jones (12), always loved the guy, but man I think GB might be a bottom 5 offense. Maybe he gets more work as they try and protect Love, but could be tougher sledding without teams fearing an MVP.

20. Dameon Pierce (22), would be higher if I liked the offense more. Singletary is pesky, certainly more than Burkhead, but I think Pierce maintains a solid workload. He's sort of the new Chris Carson in my opinion, as a tackle breaker with underrated receiving chops.

21. Miles Sanders (17), not expecting much as a pass catcher, and the offense could be awful. Only a complete lock on the #1 job keeps him in this tier.

Tier 6:

22. James Cook (25), impressive whenever he saw the ball, I think there is a scenario where he leaves Harris/Murray in the dust.

23. Cam Akers (24), in theory he has a nice workload waiting for him, but I don't feel great about him. Probably gets pulled on 3rd downs and has a long history of getting in McVay's doghouse. If it all pans out though, could be a 250 touch RB.

24. Javonte Williams (27), always felt week 1 was in play. Can't rate him too much higher as Perine will be involved, and offense could still be rough. Don't wanna overreact to a preseason game, but Russ didn't look like a guy about to bounce back. Love Javonte's talent though, always thought he was better than Najee/Etienne.

Tier 7:
25. David Montgomery (29), always felt he was mediocre in Chicago, but he's going to a potentially very good situation. I don't think the Williams/Swift roles were ever a thing, that was just a distrust of Swift in my opinion, but 10 TDs could be on the table.

26. Rachaad White (23), kinda want to be lower, but in theory could be a 250 touch guy. I think he's a bad runner, and guys like Edmonds and Tucker are potentially threats to him. I think the passing down work is safe, though less plentiful with Brady gone.

27. D'Andre Swift (21), this is my hardest RB rank. He could be this year's Josh Jacobs if things break right, he could also be in a 3-man RBBC, where the rushing TDs go to the QB.

28. James Conner (NR), Conner is fading fast, but has zero touch competition. That has value, even in a poor offense. Would benefit a lot from Kyler coming back, which I am guessing will be no later than week 5, and likely earlier.

29. Isiah Pacheco (NR) played great for a 7th round rookie, but overall was very meh. McKinnon hogs all the passing game work, so Pacheco is TD dependent on the league's most pass heavy team in the redzone. Still, a slight adjustment to playcalling (or McKinnon injury) and this will be too low.

30. Dalvin Cook (NR), kinda see him and Hall as the new Jones/Dillon. Cook will likely mostly be there to change the pace and salt away games. Expecting a pretty big rushing pie in NY though.

Dropped off:
Devon Achane (26), like the player, but questions about the workload knock him off the list.

Alvin Kamara (28), I'm expecting a bit of a 3-man RBBC, with Kamara being more of a rich man's McKinnon of sorts. 3 game suspension knocked him off the list.

Rashaad Penny (30), really getting concerned about a 3-man RBBC in Philly. Don't think he has the all-around ability Swift has either.
 
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WR
Tier 1:

1. Justin Jefferson (1) off to as good a start as any WR ever. More target competition this year, but that's not a concern.

2. Ja'Marr Chase (2) probably has a higher ceiling than Jefferson, but is a little bit more boom/bust, as sometimes its a Higgins week.

3. Cooper Kupp (3), WR1 overall any time he's played the last 2 years. Much more concern about his QB/offense than JJ/Chase.

4. Tyreek Hill (4), if you could guarantee me Tua plays all year, Hill would have an argument for #1. TDs should go up this year.

5. Stefon Diggs (5), been between 3rd and 7th every year in Buffalo, why should that change?

6. Davante Adams (6), personally, I think he's the best WR in the NFL, that said, his QB/offense keeps getting worse.

Tier 2:

7. CeeDee Lamb (8), I kinda want to be lower, as I'm down on the Dallas offense, and Cooks could take some looks. That said, Lamb is still likely an ascendent talent, and could see a TD spike with Schultz gone.

8. AJ Brown (7), has more target competition than everyone above him, talent wise he's a top-5 WR.

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (9), he and Lamb are pretty similar to me, I just trust Dak more than Goff. I'm not putting all my eggs on what happened in 2022 there. St. Brown also seems less likely to have a TD spike.

10. Garrett Wilson (10), has a tier 1 ceiling, but is still very unproven. I see a guy who can be top-3 any given week but will have a lot of 5-65 games along the way.

11. Jaylen Waddle (12), finished WR12 each of the last 2 years. Wins in every way and could still be ascendent.

Tier 3:

12. Chris Olave (11), only Adams saw a higher % of air yards than Olave last year, now he has Adams QB. I always compared Olave to Ridley as a prospect, but I think Olave is even more talented, speaking of...

13. Calvin Ridley (17), another guy I find myself just getting higher on. All reports have him looking like his old self, and the Jags are a better offense than what he left behind in Atlanta (at least in 2021) I think he blows right by Kirk.

14. Deebo Samuel (19), feels like after overcorrecting to his career year in 2021, we are overcorrecting to his down year last year. I think the truth is somewhere in between. Fun stat I bet most don't know, Deebo was the clear #1 target for Brock Purdy last season in games all of Deebo/CMC/Aiyuk/Kittle played, with a 25% target share.

15. DeVonta Smith (13), was WR14 PPG last year, and had his best games with Hurts or Goedert out. Might just be noise, but he's a guy I'm probably hoping someone else drafts.

16. Tee Higgins (16), would be lower if not for Burrow. Just don't think he's a great WR. Only slightly better in games Chase missed.

Tier 4:

17. DK Metcalf (14), WR14 and WR15 the last 2 years. I just don't fully trust Geno, and there are more mouths to feed with JSN on board, though that likely hurts Lockett and the TEs more. 6 TDs was well below norm for him, so its possible I'm underrating him.

18. Keenan Allen (21), if you haven't noticed yet, I really like Kellen Moore. Last year no WR saw more targets in LB/S coverage than Lamb, and Allen should step right into that. He's not the talent Lamb is anymore but can still be a very solid WR2.

19. Christian Watson (15), I want to be higher, Watson impressed me so much, but I think Jordan Love might suck, and Watson could be boom/bust. I do think he should dominate targets, possibly 130+, as his competition is all rookies or guys named Romeo.

20. Amari Cooper (18), Cooper finds a way to be a top-20 guy basically every year, but last year feels a little bit like his ceiling, as he had such a great rapport with Brissett, who liked to get the ball out quick, whereas Watson is a hang onto the ball looking deep guy.

21. Jerry Jeudy (24) started to look like the new Tyler Lockett down the stretch last year. Ceiling is higher if Russ bounces back, but more reasons than not to disbelieve.

22. Mike Williams (27), I was a little concerned in June, that Johnston could push him, but I don't see that happening at all anymore. Williams was having a solid season before he got hurt last year and is only a year removed from a WR9 season.
 
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Tier 5:

23. Drake London (23), looked like a #1 and every bit as good as Wilson or Olave as a rookie. Unlike those guys, he didn't get some big QB upgrade, also did his best work without Pitts.

24. DeAndre Hopkins (NR), if the Titans offense can bounce back, its possible Hopkins could have one more top-12 season in him. That said, he's not the big-play threat AJ Brown was, and volume is hard to come by even for the #1 in this offense, so I'd bet against it.

25. Terry McLaurin (25), I'm not a Bienemy fan, and while I like Howell a bit, I think this will be a limited offense. McLaurin is probably the #1, but its not crazy to think Dotson could push him, and Curtis Samuel is one of the league's better #3 WRs. I just don't see much ceiling here, though McLaurin is a solid floor play as he's made do with less.

26. Diontae Johnson (32), 0 TDs was maybe the biggest fluke in the NFL last year, nothing about the Steelers playcalling could change and he could score 7 TDs. One of the most targeted players in the NFL, due to elite route running, he's a good bounce back bet. Hell, 1st preseason game Pickett threw 6 passes and 3 were to Johnson.

27. DJ Moore (20), checking out the Moore thread, I'm apparently a lot lower on him than most. I just don't see Moore seeing more targets in Chicago, and while Fields is likely a QB upgrade (even if he doesn't improve) I just see Moore as McLaurin with less volume.

28. Christian Kirk (30), I think he's certainly coming down from last year, he's not on Ridley's level. I also wonder if he becomes more of a short area WR, where he might be competing more with Engram for targets than Ridley. Still, he's a trusted weapon for Lawrence and might be the #1 option in the redzone.

29. Brandon Aiyuk (26), love the talent, but unfortunately, he's probably the 4th best weapon in the passing game. I think 2022 was about his ceiling in this situation anyway.

30. Tyler Lockett (28), I might be overrating JSN's impact, but I think Lockett's WR2 days are over.

Tier 6:

31. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (NR), expecting him to have a strangehold on slot duty, and for Seattle to run mostly 11 personnel. Might start slow but expect him to be a solid WR3 with upside by midseason.

32. Chris Godwin (29), talented WR in a bad offense. He has made that work before, but that was with Arians.

33. Hollywood Brown (22), this might be way too low, as he was a top-10 WR without Hopkins last year, we'll see when Kyler gets back.

34. Mike Evans (31) I feel kinda gross ranking Evans this low, as I've always been a big fan of his, but the QB play could be as bad as its ever been, and he's not a young guy anymore where he could make guys like Glennon/Manziel look good.

Tier 7:

35. Michael Pittman (34), I question his talent level, and his offense. He's the clear #1 at least, though there may not be a team where that is worth less.

36. Gabe Davis (NR), he was an avoid for me last year, as I thought and still think he's a bit of a 1 trick pony, but he's in an offense where that trick (scoring TD's, especially long ones) comes up a decent amount. Now that he's going as a WR4 he's a lot more palatable than as a WR2.

37. George Pickens (37), might be as boom/bust as any WR in the league. He's got talent, but Johnson is the clear #1, and Freiermuth will be heavily involved. I'm not sure there is room for more than say 60 catches.

38. Jordan Addison (39), I think he'll make short work of Osborn, and could potentially even make a run at Hockenson (probably more in 2024)

39. Jahan Dotson (NR), had stretches where he looked like the #1, and has the draft pedigree. I just don't love the offense, and trust McLaurin more.

Tier 8:

40. Elijah Moore (NR), not many guys were bigger disappointments last season than Moore. Being the #2 for Deshaun Watson has produced some nice games/seasons for Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Can Moore be next, or will he behind Njoku in the pecking order?

Dropped off:
Rondale Moore (33), looking like Michael Wilson could make a play for splitting that #2 job.

Kadarius Toney (35), I'm about as injury forgiving as it gets, and even I'm wary of him.

Treylon Burks (36), Hopkins addition makes targets even harder to come by.

Quentin Johnston (38), behind Josh Palmer at the moment, and while that likely won't last too long, he's not a threat to Allen/Williams this season.

Zay Flowers (40), he's my 1st choice for WRs on the Ravens, but everybody is fighting for scraps behind Andrews.
 
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TE
Tier 1:

1. Travis Kelce (1), 3 of the top-6 TE seasons in the last 30 years.

Tier 2:

2. Mark Andrews (2), for a 23-game stretch over the last 2 seasons, Andrews outproduced Kelce. Not worried about WR additions at all, they'll likely just take coverage away. Honestly, I'd argue Andrews is closer to Kelce than...

Tier 3:

3. TJ Hockenson (6), I think he's overrated as a talent, but he's in a great situation. He might be the least talented TE in the top-7. Did see a 3% target share and air yard % spike in Minnesota, though his YPC went down a ton.

4. George Kittle (3), occasionally falls out of the offense, and wasn't a top-8 TE in games Deebo played last season, still his track record is as an elite guy, and when he's hot, the ceiling is Kelce levels. Wonder if the TD spike was a Purdy thing or a Deebo being out thing?

5. Kyle Pitts (4), most unlucky TE I can remember. Probably lost 500-5 to just awful Mariota throws. Pitts hasn't been a bust, he's still a year removed from being the only rookie TE of the Super Bowl era with 1000 yards. He's got more risk than the rest of this tier but might have the highest ceiling as well.

Tier 4:

6. Darren Waller (5), still has 100 catch upside in an offense where he should be the clear #1. I thought he still looked very good when he played last season, but that has become his biggest issue. I'm a forgiving guy injury wise, so I'll be happy to take him as a TE1, but I can understand why others might not.

Tier 5:

7. Dallas Goedert (7), the last TE I truly trust, talent wise I'd probably swap him and Hockenson. Goedert does it all, and does it well, he's just in an offense where he is often the #3 target. I have seen people point to his 700-3 last year, as a low ceiling player, but I think people are forgetting he missed 5 games. He was well on his way to 1000 yards.

Tier 6:

8. Pat Freiermuth (8), took a step forward in year 2, especially as a downfield target, but had some bad TD luck, which applied to basically everyone in Pittsburgh.

9. David Njoku (9), I think he'll be ahead of Moore in the pecking order, but its no lock. If he does, he probably should be higher.

10. Evan Engram (10), I want to be lower, but it really drops off after this. I'm expecting him to be more boom/bust with Ridley in town, as more often than not he'll be the #3 target.

Tier 7:

11. Dalton Schultz (11), wouldn't be shocked if he lead the Texans in catches, also wouldn't be shocked if he was a product if the Dallas offense. Bit of a hedge ranking.

Tier 8:

12. Dalton Kincaid (14), I kinda want to argue him higher, but rookie TEs are notoriously unreliable, and its possible he splits snaps with Knox, though if he's really good, Knox isn't likely standing in the way for long. Hoping for more 2-TE sets.

13. Tyler Higbee (15), clear #2 in LA, low upside but high floor.

14. Sam LaPorta (NR) pretty similar to Kincaid but with a worse QB.

15. Chigoziem Okonkwo (13), looked so good on limited snaps last year, its possible he's not a full-time player due to size/blocking, but he's a playmaker, and even if he's part time, he'll have some value.

Dropped off:
Greg Dulcich (12), similar to Okonkwo, though likely less talented. I debated the 2 for the last spot, and ultimately decided against Dulcich, plus, I think he has more potential competition.
 
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Job well done…quibbles/comments

Dak’s simply being written off too soon. His 17 game TD pace last year was still 32…and at the end of the day, he suffered an injury to his throwing hand week 1. Also think that with Hurts in division and taking over the mantle as the divisions best QB, he’s going to come back strong.

Joe Mixon does feel like he’s being slept on a bit as a bit of a hangover from the perception the Bengals we’re going to move on. But he was 1255/9 in 14 games and Perone is gone. 14 feels conservative.

Breece Hall at 12 and Javonte at 24 feels off. No? Dalvin isn’t a significantly bigger threat that Samaje?

Pacheco went 1013/5 in his last 12 games including the playoffs. Solid YPC and no one was really brought in. Perfect zero RB target but 29 again feels low. I’d have him above James Cook.

I also think Kamara is being written off waaaayyyyy too early.

I agree with you on Calvin Ridley. Doesn’t seem like we’re alone…I kind of predicted this too that he’d be on fire by the time draft season rolled around. Grrrr. I also agree with you on Deebo.

That said, why is Amon-Ra more proven than Garrett Wilson? He feels a lot like this eras Jarvis Landry while Wilson is getting Davante comps.

While the 0 TD’s thing with Diontae Johnson was a fluke…just feels to me like he’s a 2. Whether Pickens is a 1 or not…remains to be seen, but he does ooze a ‘that dude’ vibe, and guys who have a path to being a 1 right off the bat with what he’s shown so far shouldn’t be 37.

I’ve seen that narrative around Mariota killing Kyle Pitts last year. But the bottom line is that the Falcons are going to have as slanted a run:pass ratio toward the run as any team in the NFL the last 20 years. A WR23 and a TE4 feels unattainable.
 
criminally low on the following:

Trevor Lawrence is a tier 4 QB? what? Geno smith and A. Rodgers , daniel Jones, are lower than Anthony Richardson? D. Watson is only QB 9? I think you need to move
Watson, Lawrence, DJ, Geno , Rodgers into your top 10. This year has the feel to it that the Bengals are going to implode - they're going to suck. not getting the warm and fuzzies about the Burrow injury. I believe they're this year's version of what the Bills were last year - the people's choice team to go to the SB - but fail miserably in accomplishing that task.
Lamar Jackson is so good he's in a tier by himself? I dunno, I'm not buying it. top 3 QBs seem ok. I'd move Fields down to qb 10 or worse. I'm surprised no mention of jordan love he looked stellar in the 1st preseason game. he's going to surprise many, reports of GB demise are vassstly overrated.

for RBs:
criminally high on Miles sanders, so much so, you should be brought up on charges. have you seen the history of injuries on this guy? he's made of glass. Chuba hubbard will outrush Sanders in 2023. more carries, more yards, more TDs. but in the end it doesn't matter this is one of the worst teams in the league and the hiring of Reich is going to backfire in a big way here.
criminally low on James cook - spectacular training camp. under the radar guaranteed top 10 NFL RB in 2023.
RB 6-10 seems like you punted there. Johnathan Taylor will not be a top 20 RB in 2023. not happening. back,ankle injuries, holdout, more fake injuries, no thanks.
Josh jacobs? name the last 340 carry RB ( 393) touches since 1990, who even sniffed those numbers the following season? there's like 1-2 guys. ain't happenin'. like G., Bush Sr would say, 'not gunna do it'. Stevenson, meet mr Elliott - yeah he's worn out, but he can block his butt off, doesn't fumble, never gets hurt.
Derick Henry is yesterday's newspaper - tyjae spears is on the rise in a big way - electric first preseason game. he's here to stay. Henry is worn out, old, at the age where the stats fall off the cliff. Henry would be on most people's do not draft list.
we need to have a talk about Tony Pollard - dude is a complimentary player, a 1b to someone's 1A. now that the 1a, elliott is gone, Pollard won't be able to hold up his end of the bargain. Her's a guy who's never had 194 or more carries in a single season in the nfl or more than 78 carries in college. I'm not seeing how or why we should draft this guy at #6, let alone 26. I don't get it. let your friends be the dumb ones to select him with a top 10 pick. This guy won't last 17 games without injury. I dont get how we take a never has been and throw him in the top 7 as a bonafide starter / bellcow. he's a compliment nothing more. too risky to take him as a top 6 RB.
I think you're criminally low on D. Pierce - he's going to pop top 12 RB numbers this season. there's literally no one else to steal carries. Pierce should easily see over 320 carries.
but I love the rest of the RB list you've compiled!

For WRs:
I love what you've done here! the only ones I'd be moving WAY up the board, are George Pickens and Jahan Dotson. Watching JD last season, through training camp this year, and now week 1 preseason, he looks completely uncoverable, set to dominate the NFL. The OC , Bienemy, has the play calling to light up Dotsons world. he's going to finish within the WR top 10 , he's the Real Deal.
You're too low on St Brown - he needs to be in the top 5. You're too high on Keenan Allen he's right at the age where WR's fall off the cliff - many stats and stories about Allen on youtube and how his downfall started second half of last season. he's slipping. You can't count on Mike Williams either. dude's always hurt. you might be too low on Christian watson. too low on gabe davis, too high on D. Hopkins , too low on Mike Evans. There's no way in hell Hopkins catches more than 50 balls in 2023. desperate move by Tenn for a player far beyond his prime.

Thanks for the list lots of work went into it obviously!
 
Great stuff and appreciate the work you put into it.

Only comment I want to ask is no Irv Smith Jr for the Bengals in the top 15/honorable mention that helped CJ Uzomah and Hayden Hurst be relevant the last 2 years?
 
Tanner9919 said:
criminally low on the following:

Trevor Lawrence is a tier 4 QB? what? Geno smith and A. Rodgers , daniel Jones, are lower than Anthony Richardson? D. Watson is only QB 9? I think you need to move
Watson, Lawrence, DJ, Geno , Rodgers into your top 10. This year has the feel to it that the Bengals are going to implode - they're going to suck. not getting the warm and fuzzies about the Burrow injury. I believe they're this year's version of what the Bills were last year - the people's choice team to go to the SB - but fail miserably in accomplishing that task.
Lamar Jackson is so good he's in a tier by himself? I dunno, I'm not buying it. top 3 QBs seem ok. I'd move Fields down to qb 10 or worse. I'm surprised no mention of jordan love he looked stellar in the 1st preseason game. he's going to surprise many, reports of GB demise are vassstly overrated.

for RBs:
criminally high on Miles sanders, so much so, you should be brought up on charges. have you seen the history of injuries on this guy? he's made of glass. Chuba hubbard will outrush Sanders in 2023. more carries, more yards, more TDs. but in the end it doesn't matter this is one of the worst teams in the league and the hiring of Reich is going to backfire in a big way here.
criminally low on James cook - spectacular training camp. under the radar guaranteed top 10 NFL RB in 2023.
RB 6-10 seems like you punted there. Johnathan Taylor will not be a top 20 RB in 2023. not happening. back,ankle injuries, holdout, more fake injuries, no thanks.
Josh jacobs? name the last 340 carry RB ( 393) touches since 1990, who even sniffed those numbers the following season? there's like 1-2 guys. ain't happenin'. like G., Bush Sr would say, 'not gunna do it'. Stevenson, meet mr Elliott - yeah he's worn out, but he can block his butt off, doesn't fumble, never gets hurt.
Derick Henry is yesterday's newspaper - tyjae spears is on the rise in a big way - electric first preseason game. he's here to stay. Henry is worn out, old, at the age where the stats fall off the cliff. Henry would be on most people's do not draft list.
we need to have a talk about Tony Pollard - dude is a complimentary player, a 1b to someone's 1A. now that the 1a, elliott is gone, Pollard won't be able to hold up his end of the bargain. Her's a guy who's never had 194 or more carries in a single season in the nfl or more than 78 carries in college. I'm not seeing how or why we should draft this guy at #6, let alone 26. I don't get it. let your friends be the dumb ones to select him with a top 10 pick. This guy won't last 17 games without injury. I dont get how we take a never has been and throw him in the top 7 as a bonafide starter / bellcow. he's a compliment nothing more. too risky to take him as a top 6 RB.
I think you're criminally low on D. Pierce - he's going to pop top 12 RB numbers this season. there's literally no one else to steal carries. Pierce should easily see over 320 carries.
but I love the rest of the RB list you've compiled!

For WRs:
I love what you've done here! the only ones I'd be moving WAY up the board, are George Pickens and Jahan Dotson. Watching JD last season, through training camp this year, and now week 1 preseason, he looks completely uncoverable, set to dominate the NFL. The OC , Bienemy, has the play calling to light up Dotsons world. he's going to finish within the WR top 10 , he's the Real Deal.
You're too low on St Brown - he needs to be in the top 5. You're too high on Keenan Allen he's right at the age where WR's fall off the cliff - many stats and stories about Allen on youtube and how his downfall started second half of last season. he's slipping. You can't count on Mike Williams either. dude's always hurt. you might be too low on Christian watson. too low on gabe davis, too high on D. Hopkins , too low on Mike Evans. There's no way in hell Hopkins catches more than 50 balls in 2023. desperate move by Tenn for a player far beyond his prime.

Thanks for the list lots of work went into it obviously!
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I love the passion, but several of these are rough takes!
 
Low on almost everyone I own so of course I must disagree in the most biased way possible, but I still like the work put in to this. Great job!
 
TheDirtyWord said:
Job well done…quibbles/comments

Dak’s simply being written off too soon. His 17 game TD pace last year was still 32…and at the end of the day, he suffered an injury to his throwing hand week 1. Also think that with Hurts in division and taking over the mantle as the divisions best QB, he’s going to come back strong.

Joe Mixon does feel like he’s being slept on a bit as a bit of a hangover from the perception the Bengals we’re going to move on. But he was 1255/9 in 14 games and Perone is gone. 14 feels conservative.

Breece Hall at 12 and Javonte at 24 feels off. No? Dalvin isn’t a significantly bigger threat that Samaje?

Pacheco went 1013/5 in his last 12 games including the playoffs. Solid YPC and no one was really brought in. Perfect zero RB target but 29 again feels low. I’d have him above James Cook.

I also think Kamara is being written off waaaayyyyy too early.

I agree with you on Calvin Ridley. Doesn’t seem like we’re alone…I kind of predicted this too that he’d be on fire by the time draft season rolled around. Grrrr. I also agree with you on Deebo.

That said, why is Amon-Ra more proven than Garrett Wilson? He feels a lot like this eras Jarvis Landry while Wilson is getting Davante comps.

While the 0 TD’s thing with Diontae Johnson was a fluke…just feels to me like he’s a 2. Whether Pickens is a 1 or not…remains to be seen, but he does ooze a ‘that dude’ vibe, and guys who have a path to being a 1 right off the bat with what he’s shown so far shouldn’t be 37.

I’ve seen that narrative around Mariota killing Kyle Pitts last year. But the bottom line is that the Falcons are going to have as slanted a run:pass ratio toward the run as any team in the NFL the last 20 years. A WR23 and a TE4 feels unattainable.
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Thanks for the feedback, the best part of these for me, is seeing where I disagree with others.

Dak would have been in tier 6 if I went past 15 guys. I do think he's still a very solid NFL QB, but the 2 rushing scores in the last 2 years bugs me, he used to be good for 6 a year. I also think very highly of the Dallas D (might be the best in the NFL) so I think his volume will be lower than say Geno.

I think the Jets offense will be a lot better than Denver's offense, and I think NY will also be more committed to (and efficient with) the running game, as teams still actually respect their veteran QB. I would like to have Javonte higher, and if I'm wrong about Russ, then I'll be too low on Javonte and Jeudy.

I just really love James Cook. I think his ceiling is 3 down RB despite his size, I don't think Pacheco has that, though I'll acknowledge I could be too low on Pacheco.

I think Kamara is not the same player he once was, and the offense isn't the same either. He's under 4 YPC over the last 2 years and has 13 TDs in his last 28 games. I think Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller will both have roles, and Kamara is out 3 games. He would have been in my next tier, but his profile screams RB3 to me.

I think higher of Amon-Ra's talent than Landry. I think he's Hines Ward, right down to probably being the hardest working WR (maybe overall player) in the NFL. Rodgers is certainly better than Goff, but St. Brown has already been a WR1, and I think has a much higher floor than Wilson. If Rodgers has a big Rodgers year, Wilson certainly has a higher ceiling, I just trust Amon-Ra more. One note on Amon-Ra, while he technically played 16 games, he really played closer to 14. I'd be happy with either as my WR1.

Its possible I'm letting a bias creep in, but Pickens feels very similar to Claypool to me, in that he makes some flashy plays, but also isn't really open very often. Johnson is just such a target hog, and its been the case across multiple QBs, and multiple years. I agree his talent is more #2-ish, but I think he's pretty locked in as the #1. Truth be told, I think the Steelers best pass catcher is Freiermuth, and I wish they'd give him a Hockenson/Andrews level workload.

The Falcons threw 415 passes last year, if that stays the same, I see no reason why 225 of those aren't to London/Pitts. I don't see Mack Hollins or anybody else topping 50 targets, with the possible exception of Bijan. I also think the Falcons will throw more often this year, much like the Bears, I don't think they'll suddenly become a passing team, but say they go from 415 to 475, now London/Pitts might have 250. I think the condensed offense can make up more some volume concerns.
 
travdogg said:
Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (18), similar to Etienne/Walker but with more question marks.

19. Aaron Jones (12), always loved the guy, but man I think GB might be a bottom 5 offense. Maybe he gets more work as they try and protect Love, but could be tougher sledding without teams fearing an MVP.

20. Dameon Pierce (22), would be higher if I liked the offense more. Singletary is pesky, certainly more than Burkhead, but I think Pierce maintains a solid workload. He's sort of the new Chris Carson in my opinion, as a tackle breaker with underrated receiving chops.

21. Miles Sanders (17), not expecting much as a pass catcher, and the offense could be awful. Only a complete lock on the #1 job keeps him in this tier.

Tier 6:

22. James Cook (25), impressive whenever he saw the ball, I think there is a scenario where he leaves Harris/Murray in the dust.

23. Cam Akers (24), in theory he has a nice workload waiting for him, but I don't feel great about him. Probably gets pulled on 3rd downs and has a long history of getting in McVay's doghouse. If it all pans out though, could be a 250 touch RB.

24. Javonte Williams (27), always felt week 1 was in play. Can't rate him too much higher as Perine will be involved, and offense could still be rough. Don't wanna overreact to a preseason game, but Russ didn't look like a guy about to bounce back. Love Javonte's talent though, always thought he was better than Najee/Etienne.

Tier 7:
25. David Montgomery (29), always felt he was mediocre in Chicago, but he's going to a potentially very good situation. I don't think the Williams/Swift roles were ever a thing, that was just a distrust of Swift in my opinion, but 10 TDs could be on the table.

26. Rachaad White (23), kinda want to be lower, but in theory could be a 250 touch guy. I think he's a bad runner, and guys like Edmonds and Tucker are potentially threats to him. I think the passing down work is safe, though less plentiful with Brady gone.

27. D'Andre Swift (21), this is my hardest RB rank. He could be this year's Josh Jacobs if things break right, he could also be in a 3-man RBBC, where the rushing TDs go to the QB.

28. James Conner (NR), Conner is fading fast, but has zero touch competition. That has value, even in a poor offense. Would benefit a lot from Kyler coming back, which I am guessing will be no later than week 5, and likely earlier.

29. Isiah Pacheco (NR) played great for a 7th round rookie, but overall was very meh. McKinnon hogs all the passing game work, so Pacheco is TD dependent on the league's most pass heavy team in the redzone. Still, a slight adjustment to playcalling (or McKinnon injury) and this will be too low.

30. Dalvin Cook (NR), kinda see him and Hall as the new Jones/Dillon. Cook will likely mostly be there to change the pace and salt away games. Expecting a pretty big rushing pie in NY though.

Dropped off:
Devon Achane (26), like the player, but questions about the workload knock him off the list.

Alvin Kamara (28), I'm expecting a bit of a 3-man RBBC, with Kamara being more of a rich man's McKinnon of sorts. 3 game suspension knocked him off the list.

Rashaad Penny (30), really getting concerned about a 3-man RBBC in Philly. Don't think he has the all-around ability Swift has either.
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Barring injury, I just don't see any scenario where Kamara scores less than 150 fantasy points, which is where you have him projected. Also, it will not be a committee. Kamara will get his normal volume and has looked great all camp. If Thomas stays healthy all year to stretch the defence, Kamara will be top 15, with the suspension.

RB16 last year and he effectively missed 4 games with the rib injury. Historically low TD production (4) and receptions. The Saints know they misused him and now he has Carr. Massive value in drafts if you can weather the suspension.

Great piece by the way. Thanks for the great read.
 
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You also are projecting DJ Moore to be slightly worse than he was last year in Carolina with that Motley Crue of QBs he was forced to deal with. Barring injury, no way that happens and he easily finishes as a top 20 receiver. I am betting closer to top 10. Supremely talented.
 
Timmay said:
Great stuff and appreciate the work you put into it.

Only comment I want to ask is no Irv Smith Jr for the Bengals in the top 15/honorable mention that helped CJ Uzomah and Hayden Hurst be relevant the last 2 years?
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I like using 15 for TEs, but Irv was TE18 for me. I have him and Gerald Everett as pretty similar, they would have been a part of tier 9 if I'd gone that deep, right after Dulcich who would have been tier 8.

need2know said:
3 guys I think should be higher

Tua, Isiah Pacheco, and Metcalf
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I very well could be. Those were all guys I can see higher upsides for but have doubts for various reasons.
 
zoonation said:
travdogg said:
Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (18), similar to Etienne/Walker but with more question marks.

19. Aaron Jones (12), always loved the guy, but man I think GB might be a bottom 5 offense. Maybe he gets more work as they try and protect Love, but could be tougher sledding without teams fearing an MVP.

20. Dameon Pierce (22), would be higher if I liked the offense more. Singletary is pesky, certainly more than Burkhead, but I think Pierce maintains a solid workload. He's sort of the new Chris Carson in my opinion, as a tackle breaker with underrated receiving chops.

21. Miles Sanders (17), not expecting much as a pass catcher, and the offense could be awful. Only a complete lock on the #1 job keeps him in this tier.

Tier 6:

22. James Cook (25), impressive whenever he saw the ball, I think there is a scenario where he leaves Harris/Murray in the dust.

23. Cam Akers (24), in theory he has a nice workload waiting for him, but I don't feel great about him. Probably gets pulled on 3rd downs and has a long history of getting in McVay's doghouse. If it all pans out though, could be a 250 touch RB.

24. Javonte Williams (27), always felt week 1 was in play. Can't rate him too much higher as Perine will be involved, and offense could still be rough. Don't wanna overreact to a preseason game, but Russ didn't look like a guy about to bounce back. Love Javonte's talent though, always thought he was better than Najee/Etienne.

Tier 7:
25. David Montgomery (29), always felt he was mediocre in Chicago, but he's going to a potentially very good situation. I don't think the Williams/Swift roles were ever a thing, that was just a distrust of Swift in my opinion, but 10 TDs could be on the table.

26. Rachaad White (23), kinda want to be lower, but in theory could be a 250 touch guy. I think he's a bad runner, and guys like Edmonds and Tucker are potentially threats to him. I think the passing down work is safe, though less plentiful with Brady gone.

27. D'Andre Swift (21), this is my hardest RB rank. He could be this year's Josh Jacobs if things break right, he could also be in a 3-man RBBC, where the rushing TDs go to the QB.

28. James Conner (NR), Conner is fading fast, but has zero touch competition. That has value, even in a poor offense. Would benefit a lot from Kyler coming back, which I am guessing will be no later than week 5, and likely earlier.

29. Isiah Pacheco (NR) played great for a 7th round rookie, but overall was very meh. McKinnon hogs all the passing game work, so Pacheco is TD dependent on the league's most pass heavy team in the redzone. Still, a slight adjustment to playcalling (or McKinnon injury) and this will be too low.

30. Dalvin Cook (NR), kinda see him and Hall as the new Jones/Dillon. Cook will likely mostly be there to change the pace and salt away games. Expecting a pretty big rushing pie in NY though.

Dropped off:
Devon Achane (26), like the player, but questions about the workload knock him off the list.

Alvin Kamara (28), I'm expecting a bit of a 3-man RBBC, with Kamara being more of a rich man's McKinnon of sorts. 3 game suspension knocked him off the list.

Rashaad Penny (30), really getting concerned about a 3-man RBBC in Philly. Don't think he has the all-around ability Swift has either.
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Barring injury, I just don't see any scenario where Kamara scores less than 150 fantasy points, which is where you have him projected. Also, it will not be a committee. Kamara will get his normal volume and has looked great all camp. If Thomas stays healthy all year to stretch the defence, Kamara will be top 15, with the suspension.

RB16 last year and he effectively missed 4 games with the rib injury. Historically low TD production (4) and receptions. The Saints know they misused him and now he has Carr. Massive value in drafts if you can weather the suspension.

Great piece by the way. Thanks for the great read.
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See I go the other way, where I agree the Saints know they misused Kamara, but the solution is using him less often, especially between the tackles. Its not a coincidence in my opinion his 2 highest carry seasons, and also his 2 worst production seasons. Sure, that could also be chalked up to losing Brees, but Carr is closer to Dalton than he is to Brees.

zoonation said:
You also are projecting DJ Moore to be slightly worse than he was last year in Carolina with that Motley Crue of QBs he was forced to deal with. Barring injury, no way that happens and he easily finishes as a top 20 receiver. I am betting closer to top 10. Supremely talented.
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I'm not high on Moore as a fantasy option or as an elite NFL WR. I think he's been getting credit for being a big fish in a small pond so to speak, and I worry this might be more of another Allen Robinson situation, where he's finally got the best QB of his career, isn't really that important.

While I agree the QB is better, I don't think the target share or passing volume will be.

ETA: I'm a Bears fan, so I'd love to be wrong.
 
travdogg said:
zoonation said:
travdogg said:
Tier 5:
18. JK Dobbins (18), similar to Etienne/Walker but with more question marks.

19. Aaron Jones (12), always loved the guy, but man I think GB might be a bottom 5 offense. Maybe he gets more work as they try and protect Love, but could be tougher sledding without teams fearing an MVP.

20. Dameon Pierce (22), would be higher if I liked the offense more. Singletary is pesky, certainly more than Burkhead, but I think Pierce maintains a solid workload. He's sort of the new Chris Carson in my opinion, as a tackle breaker with underrated receiving chops.

21. Miles Sanders (17), not expecting much as a pass catcher, and the offense could be awful. Only a complete lock on the #1 job keeps him in this tier.

Tier 6:

22. James Cook (25), impressive whenever he saw the ball, I think there is a scenario where he leaves Harris/Murray in the dust.

23. Cam Akers (24), in theory he has a nice workload waiting for him, but I don't feel great about him. Probably gets pulled on 3rd downs and has a long history of getting in McVay's doghouse. If it all pans out though, could be a 250 touch RB.

24. Javonte Williams (27), always felt week 1 was in play. Can't rate him too much higher as Perine will be involved, and offense could still be rough. Don't wanna overreact to a preseason game, but Russ didn't look like a guy about to bounce back. Love Javonte's talent though, always thought he was better than Najee/Etienne.

Tier 7:
25. David Montgomery (29), always felt he was mediocre in Chicago, but he's going to a potentially very good situation. I don't think the Williams/Swift roles were ever a thing, that was just a distrust of Swift in my opinion, but 10 TDs could be on the table.

26. Rachaad White (23), kinda want to be lower, but in theory could be a 250 touch guy. I think he's a bad runner, and guys like Edmonds and Tucker are potentially threats to him. I think the passing down work is safe, though less plentiful with Brady gone.

27. D'Andre Swift (21), this is my hardest RB rank. He could be this year's Josh Jacobs if things break right, he could also be in a 3-man RBBC, where the rushing TDs go to the QB.

28. James Conner (NR), Conner is fading fast, but has zero touch competition. That has value, even in a poor offense. Would benefit a lot from Kyler coming back, which I am guessing will be no later than week 5, and likely earlier.

29. Isiah Pacheco (NR) played great for a 7th round rookie, but overall was very meh. McKinnon hogs all the passing game work, so Pacheco is TD dependent on the league's most pass heavy team in the redzone. Still, a slight adjustment to playcalling (or McKinnon injury) and this will be too low.

30. Dalvin Cook (NR), kinda see him and Hall as the new Jones/Dillon. Cook will likely mostly be there to change the pace and salt away games. Expecting a pretty big rushing pie in NY though.

Dropped off:
Devon Achane (26), like the player, but questions about the workload knock him off the list.

Alvin Kamara (28), I'm expecting a bit of a 3-man RBBC, with Kamara being more of a rich man's McKinnon of sorts. 3 game suspension knocked him off the list.

Rashaad Penny (30), really getting concerned about a 3-man RBBC in Philly. Don't think he has the all-around ability Swift has either.
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Barring injury, I just don't see any scenario where Kamara scores less than 150 fantasy points, which is where you have him projected. Also, it will not be a committee. Kamara will get his normal volume and has looked great all camp. If Thomas stays healthy all year to stretch the defence, Kamara will be top 15, with the suspension.

RB16 last year and he effectively missed 4 games with the rib injury. Historically low TD production (4) and receptions. The Saints know they misused him and now he has Carr. Massive value in drafts if you can weather the suspension.

Great piece by the way. Thanks for the great read.
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See I go the other way, where I agree the Saints know they misused Kamara, but the solution is using him less often, especially between the tackles. Its not a coincidence in my opinion his 2 highest carry seasons, and also his 2 worst production seasons. Sure, that could also be chalked up to losing Brees, but Carr is closer to Dalton than he is to Brees.

zoonation said:
You also are projecting DJ Moore to be slightly worse than he was last year in Carolina with that Motley Crue of QBs he was forced to deal with. Barring injury, no way that happens and he easily finishes as a top 20 receiver. I am betting closer to top 10. Supremely talented.
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I'm not high on Moore as a fantasy option or as an elite NFL WR. I think he's been getting credit for being a big fish in a small pond so to speak, and I worry this might be more of another Allen Robinson situation, where he's finally got the best QB of his career, isn't really that important.

While I agree the QB is better, I don't think the target share or passing volume will be.

ETA: I'm a Bears fan, so I'd love to be wrong.
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I can see the argument for using him less. But you are projecting a 25% reduction in his fantasy output from a historically bad season. I just don't see that happening. I think the Saints will be good this year and score a ton of points. Fun to discuss and, as always, we will see this how it all shakes out on the field!
 
zoonation said:
You also are projecting DJ Moore to be slightly worse than he was last year in Carolina with that Motley Crue of QBs he was forced to deal with. Barring injury, no way that happens and he easily finishes as a top 20 receiver. I am betting closer to top 10. Supremely talented.
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That Motley Crue of QBs threw 80 more times for ~650 more yards than the Bears QBs did last year, and he'll have more/better competition for those limited attempts in Chicago.

I think he's talented as well, and I would probably project him for a slight bump this year as opposed to a slight drop, but it's certainly not outlandish IMO.
 
Just discovered this thread. I really appreciate the work you put into this. It's a great read.

travdogg said:
3. Austin Ekeler (2), catches should come down a little just with better health around him, but no reason the TDs go anywhere.
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I'm a Chargers fan and follow the team very closely. I disagree with the bolded for a few reasons.

1. The RB depth looks much better than in the past two seasons.

Last season, here were the snaps on offense for Chargers RBs (including postseason game, so 18 games):
  • Ekeler 780
  • Kelley 296
  • Michel 125
  • Spiller 53
  • Rountree 25
Michel and Rountree are gone. However:
  • Spiller entered his rookie season last year after having been hurt for much of training camp, and he never really got much of an opportunity. He has been very good in camp this year, and had a great first preseason game, including a 71 yard TD called back due to a penalty. I expect him to get 250+ snaps this season.
  • Meanwhile, Kelley had those snaps in 14 games last season. He has also looked very good in camp this year, and he also had a nice preseason game 1.
Ekeler is a virtual lock to walk as a UFA after the 2023 season. Kelley is also a UFA after the season. The Chargers need to see Kelley enough to know if they want to let him walk with Ekeler, and they need to see Spiller enough to know if he is their RB1 in 2024 and beyond.

With increased playing time for other RBs, I think it is unlikely that Ekeler scores 13 rushing TDs again, or that he scores 87% of the rushing TDs again.

2. Passing targets should be deeper and better for the Chargers.

In 2021, the Chargers had 38 passing TDs in 17 games. In 2022, they had 26 in 18 games.

It is important to remember that the Chargers lost All Pro LT Slater in game 3, Herbert played much of the season with fractured rib cartilage, and primary passing targets missed a lot of games. All of that is unlikely to occur again, which should lead to a lot more passing TDs.

That might sound like a good thing for Ekeler, but it is worth pointing out that he got all 5 of his receiving TDs in the first 11 games last season. Allen missed all but one of the games in which Ekeler had a receiving TD; Williams also missed two of those games; and red zone TE Parham missed all of those games.

As of right now, all of these players are healthy:
  • WR1 Allen, who missed 7 games in 2022
  • WR2 Williams, who missed 5 games in 2022
  • WR3 Johnston, the 2023 first round draft pick
  • WR4 Palmer, who missed 1 game in 2022
  • TE1 Everett, who missed 1 game in 2022
  • TE2 Parham, who missed 11 games in 2022
  • RB2b Spiller, who missed 13 games in 2022
With such a high quality group of targets in addition to Ekeler, I'm skeptical he will get 5 receiving TDs again.

3. New OC Moore has not typically targeted his RBs much.

Dallas targeted its RBs:
2022 - 90 times (~15% of targets)
2021 - 120 times (~18%)
2020 - 107 times (~18%)

Ekeler himself had 126 targets last season (~18%), and Chargers RBs collectively had ~26% of the targets. I can see the argument that Ekeler is a better receiving RB than the Cowboys RBs Moore had, though Pollard is pretty good. But I am expecting more of a vertical passing game from the Chargers in 2023, which implies fewer targets to Ekeler. Fewer targets could also contribute to fewer receiving TDs.

I like Ekeler a lot, but I don't think he will return good value as the 3rd RB drafted this season.
 
Just Win Baby said:
Ekeler is a virtual lock to walk as a UFA after the 2023 season. Kelley is also a UFA after the season. The Chargers need to see Kelley enough to know if they want to let him walk with Ekeler, and they need to see Spiller enough to know if he is their RB1 in 2024 and beyond.
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IDK. I agree with everything else you said and this part is an entirely reasonable argument, but teams want to win games, they can't really afford to audition players too much or the coaching staff that is auditioning them will be auditioning for jobs elsewhere in 2024.

Ekeler changes defensive gameplans enough that I wonder if the Chargers can afford to limit his PT.
 
Now that is some :goodposting: right there, JWB.

It's not about limiting his PT, it's about how his touches will be distributed.

Among JWB's series of valid points, the one the fantasy community seems to be willfully ignoring, is Kellen Moore's play calling tendencies.

It's his 1st year out of the Cowboy sphere in his NFL career as a Player and Coach. All accounts I've read say McC had no influence on his play calling in Dallas, so as far as I'm concerned, what he did there is what he does.

Also, everything I'm reading says he has complete control of the Chargers offense, so no one will be influencing him there, either.

He had exceptional receiving backs in Dallas that were underutilized in the passing game.

Also, let's not conveniently forget that both Ekeler and the Chargers draft brass overtly states that a primary goal for 2023 was to get him some help shouldering the load.

I want nothing to do with him as RB3/4 off the board, or as the foundation of a hero build.
 
Chaka said:
Just Win Baby said:
Ekeler is a virtual lock to walk as a UFA after the 2023 season. Kelley is also a UFA after the season. The Chargers need to see Kelley enough to know if they want to let him walk with Ekeler, and they need to see Spiller enough to know if he is their RB1 in 2024 and beyond.
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IDK. I agree with everything else you said and this part is an entirely reasonable argument, but teams want to win games, they can't really afford to audition players too much or the coaching staff that is auditioning them will be auditioning for jobs elsewhere in 2024.

Ekeler changes defensive gameplans enough that I wonder if the Chargers can afford to limit his PT.
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Yes, they need to win games. To do that, it would help if they were better than #30 in rushing yards and #30 in ypc, as they were in 2022.

Look at what happened in their playoff collapse last season. The Chargers were up 27-0 with 2 minutes remaining in the first half, but they were unable to use their running game to burn the clock and ultimately lost 31-30. There was plenty of blame to go around, not saying that was Ekeler's fault, especially since he had 8/35/2 rushing in the first half. But here were his carries in the second half:
  • -4 yards
  • -1 yard
  • 0 yards
  • 1 yard
  • 4 yards
One way to help with that is to use Kelley and Spiller more in the rushing offense, particularly inside runs. I expect that, and I doubt Ekeler will break 200 carries again.
 
Last edited:
Just Win Baby said:
Chaka said:
Just Win Baby said:
Ekeler is a virtual lock to walk as a UFA after the 2023 season. Kelley is also a UFA after the season. The Chargers need to see Kelley enough to know if they want to let him walk with Ekeler, and they need to see Spiller enough to know if he is their RB1 in 2024 and beyond.
Click to expand...
IDK. I agree with everything else you said and this part is an entirely reasonable argument, but teams want to win games, they can't really afford to audition players too much or the coaching staff that is auditioning them will be auditioning for jobs elsewhere in 2024.

Ekeler changes defensive gameplans enough that I wonder if the Chargers can afford to limit his PT.
Click to expand...

Yes, they need to win games. To do that, it would help if they were better than #30 in rushing yards and #30 in ypc, as they were in 2022.

Look at what happened in their playoff collapse last season. The Chargers were up 27-0 with 2 minutes remaining in the first half, but they were unable to use their running game to burn the clock and ultimately lost 31-30. There was plenty of blame to go around, not saying that was Ekeler's fault, especially since he had 8/35/2 rushing in the first half. But here were his carries in the second half:
  • -4 yards
  • -1 yard
  • 0 yards
  • 1 yard
  • 4 yards
One way to help with that is to use Kelley and Spiller more in the rushing offense, particularly inside runs. I expect that, and I doubt Ekeler will break 200 carries again.
Click to expand...
I agreed with all of your points. There will be a large okay calling change and Ekeler's distribution will change. I am simply wondering if Kelley & Spiller bring enough to the table to see a large change in overall PT. Coaches, particularly ones who are on shaky ground, only have so much leeway to take their best guys off the field.

I haven't been following the Chargers camp closely, that's why I follow you, so maybe Spiller & Kelley are balling out and ready to shoulder a larger load.

Ultimately the question is who else should be in the top 3 RBs off the board in redrafts if not Ekeler?

Concerning the playoffs loss; with a 27 point lead the Chargers called a total of six running plays in the second half. That's not on the RB group. That's why they lost and that's why Joe Lombardi lost his job.
 
Just Win Baby said:
Just discovered this thread. I really appreciate the work you put into this. It's a great read.

travdogg said:
3. Austin Ekeler (2), catches should come down a little just with better health around him, but no reason the TDs go anywhere.
Click to expand...

I'm a Chargers fan and follow the team very closely. I disagree with the bolded for a few reasons.

1. The RB depth looks much better than in the past two seasons.

Last season, here were the snaps on offense for Chargers RBs (including postseason game, so 18 games):
  • Ekeler 780
  • Kelley 296
  • Michel 125
  • Spiller 53
  • Rountree 25
Michel and Rountree are gone. However:
  • Spiller entered his rookie season last year after having been hurt for much of training camp, and he never really got much of an opportunity. He has been very good in camp this year, and had a great first preseason game, including a 71 yard TD called back due to a penalty. I expect him to get 250+ snaps this season.
  • Meanwhile, Kelley had those snaps in 14 games last season. He has also looked very good in camp this year, and he also had a nice preseason game 1.
Ekeler is a virtual lock to walk as a UFA after the 2023 season. Kelley is also a UFA after the season. The Chargers need to see Kelley enough to know if they want to let him walk with Ekeler, and they need to see Spiller enough to know if he is their RB1 in 2024 and beyond.

With increased playing time for other RBs, I think it is unlikely that Ekeler scores 13 rushing TDs again, or that he scores 87% of the rushing TDs again.

2. Passing targets should be deeper and better for the Chargers.

In 2021, the Chargers had 38 passing TDs in 17 games. In 2022, they had 26 in 18 games.

It is important to remember that the Chargers lost All Pro LT Slater in game 3, Herbert played much of the season with fractured rib cartilage, and primary passing targets missed a lot of games. All of that is unlikely to occur again, which should lead to a lot more passing TDs.

That might sound like a good thing for Ekeler, but it is worth pointing out that he got all 5 of his receiving TDs in the first 11 games last season. Allen missed all but one of the games in which Ekeler had a receiving TD; Williams also missed two of those games; and red zone TE Parham missed all of those games.

As of right now, all of these players are healthy:
  • WR1 Allen, who missed 7 games in 2022
  • WR2 Williams, who missed 5 games in 2022
  • WR3 Johnston, the 2023 first round draft pick
  • WR4 Palmer, who missed 1 game in 2022
  • TE1 Everett, who missed 1 game in 2022
  • TE2 Parham, who missed 11 games in 2022
  • RB2b Spiller, who missed 13 games in 2022
With such a high quality group of targets in addition to Ekeler, I'm skeptical he will get 5 receiving TDs again.

3. New OC Moore has not typically targeted his RBs much.

Dallas targeted its RBs:
2022 - 90 times (~15% of targets)
2021 - 120 times (~18%)
2020 - 107 times (~18%)

Ekeler himself had 126 targets last season (~18%), and Chargers RBs collectively had ~26% of the targets. I can see the argument that Ekeler is a better receiving RB than the Cowboys RBs Moore had, though Pollard is pretty good. But I am expecting more of a vertical passing game from the Chargers in 2023, which implies fewer targets to Ekeler. Fewer targets could also contribute to fewer receiving TDs.

I like Ekeler a lot, but I don't think he will return good value as the 3rd RB drafted this season.
Click to expand...
Thank you for the thorough response.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, in regards to Ekeler having fewer targets. I do very much agree that the Chargers will have a better offense, especially downfield. I think that may also lead to an efficiency spike from Ekeler, who was almost 3 full YPR behind his career average. So while the targets/catches should drop, I'm not sure the yards or TDs do.
I will agree he's not pushing 130 again. Ekeler had 8 TDs receiving in 2021 when everyone was healthy, it seems just as likely to me that seeing less defensive attention could lead to more TDs.

I've never been impressed by Spiller or Kelley, even in college. I think they could be used more between the 20s, and to salt away games (if the Chargers defense allows that often) but I can't see Ekeler getting pulled at the GL. Part of me wonders if the Chargers might load Ekeler up a little, with the idea that they won't be re-signing him after the year.

I'm pretty high on the Chargers offense, I think it may be the best on in the NFL, I think they could add 10-15 TDs to what they did a year ago with the OC upgrade/better health.
 
For a rare change I have very little critique here. Believe Montgomery is way too low in the 20s, and Mattison way too high in the teens.

Honestly, flip flop those two and the RB rankings are damn near perfect.
 
Chaka said:
Concerning the playoffs loss; with a 27 point lead the Chargers called a total of six running plays in the second half. That's not on the RB group. That's why they lost and that's why Joe Lombardi lost his job.
Click to expand...

Yes and no. One reason they didn't call more running plays is because they weren't getting anything out of them. Regardless, HC Staley made it clear in the offseason that improvement in the running game was an offseason priority.
 
travdogg said:
I'm pretty high on the Chargers offense, I think it may be the best on in the NFL, I think they could add 10-15 TDs to what they did a year ago with the OC upgrade/better health.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. If they aren't a top 3 offense, I have to assume it will be because of injuries. I think they will add 10-15 passing TDs. If I had to forecast those, and assuming no serious injuries (maybe players missing a game or two):
  • Total passing TDs - 40
  • WR Allen - 6
  • WR Williams - 6
  • WR Johnston - 6
  • WR Palmer - 3
  • WR Davis - 2
  • Other WRs (e.g., Guyton, Hightower) - 3
  • TE Everett - 5
  • TE Parham - 3
  • Other TEs (e.g., McKitty, Smartt) - 1
  • RB Ekeler - 3
  • Other RBs (e.g., Kelley, Spiller, Horvath) - 2
 
ZADO said:
D.Henry has the 2nd easiest SOS vs the run this year, just sayin
Click to expand...
If he were a little younger, I would probably have him in tier 1.

Between the age, the career touches, and possibly Spears taking Henry's new found receiving work, I just think he's got a little less upside than the guys ahead of him.

I do think Henry is still a top-3 NFL RB, and that schedule does insulate what is already a solid floor. I like Henry in round 2.
 
Just Win Baby said:
travdogg said:
I'm pretty high on the Chargers offense, I think it may be the best on in the NFL, I think they could add 10-15 TDs to what they did a year ago with the OC upgrade/better health.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. If they aren't a top 3 offense, I have to assume it will be because of injuries. I think they will add 10-15 passing TDs. If I had to forecast those, and assuming no serious injuries (maybe players missing a game or two):
  • Total passing TDs - 40
  • WR Allen - 6
  • WR Williams - 6
  • WR Johnston - 6
  • WR Palmer - 3
  • WR Davis - 2
  • Other WRs (e.g., Guyton, Hightower) - 3
  • TE Everett - 5
  • TE Parham - 3
  • Other TEs (e.g., McKitty, Smartt) - 1
  • RB Ekeler - 3
  • Other RBs (e.g., Kelley, Spiller, Horvath) - 2
Click to expand...
Interesting, I think it'll be a little more condensed than that, its possible I'm giving too much weight to Kellen Moore, or presuming no injuries for the main guys, I'd have:

Mike Williams=9
Keenan Allen=8
Austin Ekeler=6
Quentin Johnston=4
Gerald Everett=3

With 10 TDs split between everyone else, compared to the 14 you have. So we aren't that dissimilar. I just think the main guys take a higher percentage.

I've done 14 drafts, in those I have:

Herbert in 4, though none with Allen.
Ekeler in 0, because Chubb is always available.
Allen in 9, more than all but Richardson, Mattison, Adams and C. Watson for me.
Williams in 6, including 2 with Allen, and 3 of the 4 with Herbert.
 
Chaka said:
Just Win Baby said:
Chaka said:
Just Win Baby said:
Ekeler is a virtual lock to walk as a UFA after the 2023 season. Kelley is also a UFA after the season. The Chargers need to see Kelley enough to know if they want to let him walk with Ekeler, and they need to see Spiller enough to know if he is their RB1 in 2024 and beyond.
Click to expand...
IDK. I agree with everything else you said and this part is an entirely reasonable argument, but teams want to win games, they can't really afford to audition players too much or the coaching staff that is auditioning them will be auditioning for jobs elsewhere in 2024.

Ekeler changes defensive gameplans enough that I wonder if the Chargers can afford to limit his PT.
Click to expand...

Yes, they need to win games. To do that, it would help if they were better than #30 in rushing yards and #30 in ypc, as they were in 2022.

Look at what happened in their playoff collapse last season. The Chargers were up 27-0 with 2 minutes remaining in the first half, but they were unable to use their running game to burn the clock and ultimately lost 31-30. There was plenty of blame to go around, not saying that was Ekeler's fault, especially since he had 8/35/2 rushing in the first half. But here were his carries in the second half:
  • -4 yards
  • -1 yard
  • 0 yards
  • 1 yard
  • 4 yards
One way to help with that is to use Kelley and Spiller more in the rushing offense, particularly inside runs. I expect that, and I doubt Ekeler will break 200 carries again.
Click to expand...
I agreed with all of your points. There will be a large okay calling change and Ekeler's distribution will change. I am simply wondering if Kelley & Spiller bring enough to the table to see a large change in overall PT. Coaches, particularly ones who are on shaky ground, only have so much leeway to take their best guys off the field.

I haven't been following the Chargers camp closely, that's why I follow you, so maybe Spiller & Kelley are balling out and ready to shoulder a larger load.

Ultimately the question is who else should be in the top 3 RBs off the board in redrafts if not Ekeler?

Concerning the playoffs loss; with a 27 point lead the Chargers called a total of six running plays in the second half. That's not on the RB group. That's why they lost and that's why Joe Lombardi lost his job.
Click to expand...

Nick freakin' Chubb. That's who.
IMHO, at least.
 
Anthony Richardson at 10 is ludicrous
Just rank him #1 overall while you're at it, I'm serious

We have NOTHING to back up a Top 10 Rank on him.
Who was the last 3rd QB picked in the Top 5 NFL Draft?
Trey Lance?

It's a total dice roll from an owner that fired his head coach, hired Jeff Saturday with no coaching experience, impatient because he had Peyton Manning and then thought he had another HoF QB that early retired on him, now he finds himself in no mans land and so he throws a hail mary and selects Anthony Richardson.

Stephen Ross wanted Tua over what the scouts were saying in Justin Herbert

Good work Trav but I cannot get past ARich sitting at No 10
I immediately start to projectile vomit

And guess what? If the Colts were to end up 2-15/3-14 like the Bears last year, they'll just take another QB with a better skill set next year.
Irsay is going to keep striking until he finds some Lucas Oil
 
Stealthycat said:
travdogg said:
35. Michael Pittman (34), I question his talent level, and his offense. He's the clear #1 at least, though there may not be a team where that is worth less.
Click to expand...

looking at 95-100 catches and he's #35 ?

wow
Click to expand...
I'd be shocked if he even approached that. This is going to be a very different Colts offense, I think 100 is probably closer to his targets than catches. I think 70-800-6 is around my expectation, and while that probably equals better than a 35th place finish, the lack of upside in my opinion, pushes him down my ranks.

Ministry of Pain said:
Anthony Richardson at 10 is ludicrous
Just rank him #1 overall while you're at it, I'm serious

We have NOTHING to back up a Top 10 Rank on him.
Who was the last 3rd QB picked in the Top 5 NFL Draft?
Trey Lance?

It's a total dice roll from an owner that fired his head coach, hired Jeff Saturday with no coaching experience, impatient because he had Peyton Manning and then thought he had another HoF QB that early retired on him, now he finds himself in no mans land and so he throws a hail mary and selects Anthony Richardson.

Stephen Ross wanted Tua over what the scouts were saying in Justin Herbert

Good work Trav but I cannot get past ARich sitting at No 10
I immediately start to projectile vomit

And guess what? If the Colts were to end up 2-15/3-14 like the Bears last year, they'll just take another QB with a better skill set next year.
Irsay is going to keep striking until he finds some Lucas Oil
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I see the relevance of Trey Lance to Richardson. Ranking someone based on an entirely different person's draft spot feels very flawed.

I like Richardson, a lot. I think drafting him as a QB1 and backing him up with a solid vet (anyone else in my top-15, but especially Kirk Cousins) is a very viable strategy this season. As a rookie, I think they ask him to basically just run, and not make mistakes (ala 2022 Daniel Jones, but with a WAY better athlete/talent) I think something like 800-8 on the ground is a very fair projection and could be more if the "tush push" comes from Philly. That kind of rushing adds up fantasy wise really quick. That's 128 points without throwing a pass. Even if he has 2500 yards and 15 TDs passing, that's good for around QB10.

I think Shane Steichen will be a very good hire. I'd be surprised if Indy was a 2-3 win team. Not that I think they are a playoff team, but 6-8 seems more likely to me. They have a good OL, and a solid enough defense.
 
travdogg said:
Stealthycat said:
travdogg said:
35. Michael Pittman (34), I question his talent level, and his offense. He's the clear #1 at least, though there may not be a team where that is worth less.
Click to expand...

looking at 95-100 catches and he's #35 ?

wow
Click to expand...
I'd be shocked if he even approached that. This is going to be a very different Colts offense, I think 100 is probably closer to his targets than catches. I think 70-800-6 is around my expectation, and while that probably equals better than a 35th place finish, the lack of upside in my opinion, pushes him down my ranks.

Ministry of Pain said:
Anthony Richardson at 10 is ludicrous
Just rank him #1 overall while you're at it, I'm serious

We have NOTHING to back up a Top 10 Rank on him.
Who was the last 3rd QB picked in the Top 5 NFL Draft?
Trey Lance?

It's a total dice roll from an owner that fired his head coach, hired Jeff Saturday with no coaching experience, impatient because he had Peyton Manning and then thought he had another HoF QB that early retired on him, now he finds himself in no mans land and so he throws a hail mary and selects Anthony Richardson.

Stephen Ross wanted Tua over what the scouts were saying in Justin Herbert

Good work Trav but I cannot get past ARich sitting at No 10
I immediately start to projectile vomit

And guess what? If the Colts were to end up 2-15/3-14 like the Bears last year, they'll just take another QB with a better skill set next year.
Irsay is going to keep striking until he finds some Lucas Oil
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I see the relevance of Trey Lance to Richardson. Ranking someone based on an entirely different person's draft spot feels very flawed.

I like Richardson, a lot. I think drafting him as a QB1 and backing him up with a solid vet (anyone else in my top-15, but especially Kirk Cousins) is a very viable strategy this season. As a rookie, I think they ask him to basically just run, and not make mistakes (ala 2022 Daniel Jones, but with a WAY better athlete/talent) I think something like 800-8 on the ground is a very fair projection and could be more if the "tush push" comes from Philly. That kind of rushing adds up fantasy wise really quick. That's 128 points without throwing a pass. Even if he has 2500 yards and 15 TDs passing, that's good for around QB10.

I think Shane Steichen will be a very good hire. I'd be surprised if Indy was a 2-3 win team. Not that I think they are a playoff team, but 6-8 seems more likely to me. They have a good OL, and a solid enough defense.
Click to expand...
Hey Trav,

Let's talk 3rd QB off the board Top 5-6 in the NFL with the new mind set these days. There was a time teams passed on QBs because it ate so much money taking them 1-2-3 overall like the days of Sam Bradford, the last QB to get way too much money for bing picked No 1 overall, now we have a system where it's simply not as risky.

If Miami takes Herbert and Tua was QB3 in 2020, Lance '21, ARich '23...I can connect the dots. I can see a 2-QB race for the top QB off the board, hard to imagine there are 3 Elite future QBs taken Top 5, that likely isn't happening.

I'm saying the avg numbers of QBs that are going to make it and have good careers, a true starting QB, about 1 per year on average, they can't all be good.
Why is Trey Lance failing? He's taken a total of 420 pass attempts since he graduated from HIGH SCHOOL, dude' s never played football. Most QBs throw 420 passes in 1 season
Enter Richardson, how many starts total did he have? 52% completion rate? What are people smoking and why won't they pass it to me to puff on?

Richardson is raw, if that excites you then you have your Dynasty Cap on
I've never in redraft thought to myself...where can I find a raw QB to put on this roster as my QB1

We agree on a bunch of players but that one jumped off the page to me.
Thank You for giving me a chance to express my reasoning even if you feel like it's goofy.

And I don't think ARich will start 17 games this season. I'll impressed if he can even finish 12 games this year for the Colts.
All this running he's gonna do and no arm accuracy, he'll be lucky if he's not carted off the field. At least he plays on grass...oops.
 
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