Dynasty: Victor Cruz (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

I am very surprised by the hesitance to treat Victor Cruz as a top 5-7 dynasty receiver. His situation is as ideal as it gets, his one year of production was elite, and he passes the eye test. At 25 years old, he should be valued as a top WR, and I don't think he is yet.

I know the answer I will get first, and most often is: "It was one year. Let's see him do it again." In my relatively short experience with dynasty leagues, waiting gets you nothing. Waiting causes you to miss out on LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles (freak injury excluded).

On top of that, the "wait and see tag" doesn't seem to be applied consistently. Victor Cruz out produced A.J. Green in MAJOR fashion last season. In Cruz's starts, he was on pace for 1,700 yards and 10+ touchdowns. A.J. Green is a top 3 dynasty WR, and Cruz is somewhere in the teens. It doesn't add up to me. Are we going to let college pedigree influence our valuation of players to this degree?

Cruz - because he's only done it once - is being valued less than guys who have NEVER done it. If Dez Bryant produced 1,500 yards and 9 touchdowns over 14 games, he would be unquestioned in his status as a top 3 dynasty receiver. Cruz did and isn't the headache that Bryant is, yet is not close to top 3, based on most rankings.

I have heard often that Cruz's production came from big plays, and that they might not repeat themselves year-to-year. We could remove Cruz's 3 longest plays (99, 70+, 70+) and he still out produces A.J. Green, Mike Wallace and Dez Bryant in yardage. Beyond that, watching Cruz play, I don't think it is wise to write of the big play; he's a playmaker, among the best, and they will continue.

As for my personal ranking of Cruz, I value him top 5, regardless of league format. I like him on par with Julio, Green and Fitzgerald, more than Bryant, Wallace, Johnson, Harvin, and even his teammate, Nicks.

Thoughts?

 

[Zaphod]

I think it comes down to his initial frame of reference. It will take a LOT of data to the contrary to force people to re-evaluate their stance on Cruz. It isn't fair, but it is rather universal - the more a person has invested in their evaluation of a player, the longer it usually takes them to adjust accordingly when that evaluation no longer proves accurate.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think it comes down to his initial frame of reference. It will take a LOT of data to the contrary to force people to re-evaluate their stance on Cruz. It isn't fair, but it is rather universal - the more a person has invested in their evaluation of a player, the longer it usually takes them to adjust accordingly when that evaluation no longer proves accurate.

Well said.I think that reluctance to move from the initial valuation can be capitalized on. Most of the FBG staff has Cruz finishing around 73/1,100/7; Tremblay even has him at 65/1,150/6. I don't see any logical reasoning behind such a dip from a year ago. They are predicting a major drop off from what he did a year ago, only starting 14 games. He is #15 according to FBG in dynasty formats. Wild.

 

[Zeff]

The problem isn't refusal to believe he has the tools to do it again.

It's doubt about whether he can do it again if, as most people seem to expect, Hakeem Nicks asserts himself as the long-term first option in the NYG passing game.

 

[Concept Coop]

The problem isn't refusal to believe he has the tools to do it again.It's doubt about whether he can do it again if, as most people seem to expect, Hakeem Nicks asserts himself as the long-term first option in the NYG passing game.

I have a few problems with this - just my opinions:1. The notion that an offense can't support 2 top end WRs is faulty and out-dated.2. Cruz produced with Nicks being as healthy as he has shown he can be. 3. Why is Nicks the long-term first option? What does he provide that Cruz does not? Cruz had a higher catch rate, despite a higher yard/reception (and target) average. Cruz caught the ball more often, and did more with it when he did. Yet, as the previous poster pointed out, that is ignored becuse we didn't expect this a year ago.Cruz and Nicks shared a nearly identical target % - Manning did not favor one to the other, and they were both very productive; Cruz more so. What incentive is there for Manning, or the Giants to change that?

 

[HurryUpSundays]

The problem isn't refusal to believe he has the tools to do it again.It's doubt about whether he can do it again if, as most people seem to expect, Hakeem Nicks asserts himself as the long-term first option in the NYG passing game.

I have a few problems with this - just my opinions:1. The notion that an offense can't support 2 top end WRs is faulty and out-dated.2. Cruz produced with Nicks being as healthy as he has shown he can be. 3. Why is Nicks the long-term first option? What does he provide that Cruz does not? Cruz had a higher catch rate, despite a higher yard/reception (and target) average. Cruz and Nicks shared a nearly identical target % - Manning did not favor one to the other, and they were both very productive; Cruz more so. What incentive is there for Manning, or the Giants to change that?

 

[steveski]

I was doubtful as well until I watched the first couple preseason games. He's picking up just where he left off. Nice soft hands and making nice moves after the catch. I see no reason for his numbers to dip this year, especially with Nicks back.

 

[Zeff]

The problem isn't refusal to believe he has the tools to do it again.It's doubt about whether he can do it again if, as most people seem to expect, Hakeem Nicks asserts himself as the long-term first option in the NYG passing game.

I have a few problems with this - just my opinions:1. The notion that an offense can't support 2 top end WRs is faulty and out-dated.2. Cruz produced with Nicks being as healthy as he has shown he can be. 3. Why is Nicks the long-term first option? What does he provide that Cruz does not? Cruz had a higher catch rate, despite a higher yard/reception (and target) average. Cruz and Nicks shared a nearly identical target % - Manning did not favor one to the other, and they were both very productive; Cruz more so. What incentive is there for Manning, or the Giants to change that?

Not necessarily saying I believe (or don't) any of those three things. The point is only that Nicks was missing or less than 100% a lot of the time last year, AND he's presumed to be their premiere downfield target when he's on the field and healthy. That casts at least a slight shadow of doubt and insecurity over either guy's selection at a given price point.Have problems with it as you like. I've got to admit that I agree with most of your three points, yet despite that, the uncertainty around what the "real, season-long, everybody's-healthy" stat production would be like has me discounting both guys somewhat.When all else is pretty much equal, I gravitate toward the surer thing. By the time all isn't equal, these guys are usually both off the board, and become somebody else's problem. Wish I had a better read on the situation.

 

[rizzler]

see: Arian Foster.

Many members here can't understand how undrafted players can become elite.

 

[Zeff]

Although, uncertainty aside, I see no scenario where Cruz would crack my top 5. Top 10? Yeah, probably somewhere in there.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not necessarily saying I believe (or don't) any of those three things. The point is only that Nicks was missing or less than 100% a lot of the time last year, AND he's presumed to be their premiere downfield target when he's on the field and healthy. That casts at least a slight shadow of doubt and insecurity over either guy's selection at a given price point.Have problems with it as you like. I've got to admit that I agree with most of your three points, yet despite that, the uncertainty around what the "real, season-long, everybody's-healthy" stat production would be like has me discounting both guys somewhat.When all else is pretty much equal, I gravitate toward the surer thing. By the time all isn't equal, these guys are usually both off the board, and become somebody else's problem. Wish I had a better read on the situation.

I think you are right, in describing why people are uneasy or question it. I just don't think the logic behind it is productive.The Giants split the targets 50/50 between the 2. How much better than 1,700/10 (per 16) can Nicks be to warrant changing that ratio?

 

[Phlash]

Although, uncertainty aside, I see no scenario where Cruz would crack my top 5. Top 10? Yeah, probably somewhere in there.

Here's a scenario:Hakeem Nicks gets injured and Cruz is the #1 and gets 1400/13, which is 4 more TDs and 200 fewer yards. He'd be top 5 with those numbers.Here's another:The Giants decide to split the targets 60/40 in favor of Cruz compared to Nicks. If Cruz snags 15 more receptions but drops from 18 to 15 ypc, he'd end up with 1425 yards.

 

[Concept Coop]

I was doubtful as well until I watched the first couple preseason games. He's picking up just where he left off. Nice soft hands and making nice moves after the catch. I see no reason for his numbers to dip this year, especially with Nicks back.

And, because he can get open in such tight space - double teams can be negated. He can get open and present a target before the help over the top becomes relevant. Much like Brandon Marshall, I expect Cruz's target numbers to be consistently high for that reason. He is a very hard player to take out of a game, via game plan.

 

[Zeff]

Although, uncertainty aside, I see no scenario where Cruz would crack my top 5. Top 10? Yeah, probably somewhere in there.

Here's a scenario:Hakeem Nicks gets injured and Cruz is the #1 and gets 1400/13, which is 4 more TDs and 200 fewer yards. He'd be top 5 with those numbers.Here's another:The Giants decide to split the targets 60/40 in favor of Cruz compared to Nicks. If Cruz snags 15 more receptions but drops from 18 to 15 ypc, he'd end up with 1425 yards.

To clarify: I have NO problem imagining scenarios where he might possibly rank among the five most productive WR's over the long term. I simply don't see any way that those scenarios become so likely, and such sure things, that I rank him there for drafting purposes. But you know, things change, and it's not like I think he's a scrub or anything.

 

[Rick James]

Hakeem Nicks started 15 games last year and caught 76 balls. Cruz still finished 82 catches, 1500 yards and 9 TDs.

How many more catches is Hakeem supposed to take away from Cruz?

 

[Zeff]

Hakeem Nicks started 15 games last year and caught 76 balls. Cruz still finished 82 catches, 1500 yards and 9 TDs.How many more catches is Hakeem supposed to take away from Cruz?

Again, that's part of the problem. It's hard to tell. He dealt with a bad hammy a lot of the year last year, and was still super productive. Would you say it's completely irrational to expect a production bump on the (admittedly) off chance he puts in a full, healthy campaign?

 

[Concept Coop]

Hakeem Nicks started 15 games last year and caught 76 balls. Cruz still finished 82 catches, 1500 yards and 9 TDs.How many more catches is Hakeem supposed to take away from Cruz?

Again, that's part of the problem. It's hard to tell. He dealt with a bad hammy a lot of the year last year, and was still super productive. Would you say it's completely irrational to expect a production bump on the (admittedly) off chance he puts in a full, healthy campaign?

Not at all. I think that is rational; although expecting Nicks to be healhty over the span of a season I think is less so.Regardless of that - there is great value to a football team in being able to split targets 50/50. There is not much room for improvement on what Cruz did last season, so I don't, personally, think it is rational to think Nicks demands much more than a 50/50 devide, if that, even (IF!) healhty.

 

[Zeff]

Hakeem Nicks started 15 games last year and caught 76 balls. Cruz still finished 82 catches, 1500 yards and 9 TDs.How many more catches is Hakeem supposed to take away from Cruz?

Again, that's part of the problem. It's hard to tell. He dealt with a bad hammy a lot of the year last year, and was still super productive. Would you say it's completely irrational to expect a production bump on the (admittedly) off chance he puts in a full, healthy campaign?

Not at all. I think that is rational; although expecting Nicks to be healhty over the span of a season I think is less so.Regardless of that - there is great value to a football team in being able to split targets 50/50. There is not much room for improvement on what Cruz did last season, so I don't, personally, think it is rational to think Nicks demands much more than a 50/50 devide, if that, even (IF!) healhty.

 

[Shutout]

I totally buy the idea based on the initial reasoning in the 1st post.

I'll just add this "yeah, but.." as a possible reasoning for why people might support the other side.

Like was said, there were a number of BIG plays that seems somewhat unreasonable would be repeated conistently.

Nicks did miss time so people wonder about that.

NEW one: The giants really didn't get a chance to run as much as they typically like to last year. Not that is was a bad thing but people still tend to think of them as a team that likes to assert the run, especially when the weather goes bad.

Like I said, I can buy the idea based on the reasoning. The one thing that would make me say I wouldn't buy is it, when you look at a strong passing team, like the Colts were back in the day when they had Marvin and Wayne (and Wayne was about the age Cruz is now): When those guys were both healthy and Manning was throwing a ton, even then, one of those guys would end up top 5 but the other usually settled in top 12 or so. So when people think of both being healthy and Nicks of course being Nicks, its hard to put Cruz in that top category.

I know people have a wide range of thoughts about Nicks, but it wasn't long ago..maybe less than two years ago, that Nicks had every bit the perceived value as a guy like calvin or fitz. Two years ago, he was probably THE most untouchable dynasty buy in the game.

So you have to account for that.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I see no reason for his numbers to dip this year, especially with Nicks back.

I hope you mean aside from the fact that even the best WRs ever don't come close to rocking out over 1500 yards every season. Saying he'll get 1100 or 1200 yards is putting him right in the elite tier where he belongs.I also think that the Giants will try to balance things a bit more on offense. Eli won't be getting close to 600 attempts again moving forward IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

I totally buy the idea based on the initial reasoning in the 1st post.I'll just add this "yeah, but.." as a possible reasoning for why people might support the other side.Like was said, there were a number of BIG plays that seems somewhat unreasonable would be repeated conistently.Nicks did miss time so people wonder about that.NEW one: The giants really didn't get a chance to run as much as they typically like to last year. Not that is was a bad thing but people still tend to think of them as a team that likes to assert the run, especially when the weather goes bad.Like I said, I can buy the idea based on the reasoning. The one thing that would make me say I wouldn't buy is it, when you look at a strong passing team, like the Colts were back in the day when they had Marvin and Wayne (and Wayne was about the age Cruz is now): When those guys were both healthy and Manning was throwing a ton, even then, one of those guys would end up top 5 but the other usually settled in top 12 or so. So when people think of both being healthy and Nicks of course being Nicks, its hard to put Cruz in that top category.I know people have a wide range of thoughts about Nicks, but it wasn't long ago..maybe less than two years ago, that Nicks had every bit the perceived value as a guy like calvin or fitz. Two years ago, he was probably THE most untouchable dynasty buy in the game. So you have to account for that.

Thanks for the response, it's well thought out and insightful.I'll just add this: There is more margin for error than most are accounting for, I think. What Cruz did in 2011, he did in 14 games. That is 12.5% right there; meaning, if he put up the same numbers over 16 games, his production would have dropped 12.5% and STILL be top 3-5. His target % could did 3-4% and still produce as a WR1. And, again, I think we are playing in a different NFL today. Different even than when Manning was throwing to Wayne/Harrison.. Look at the best teams in the NFL (Giants, Patriots, Packers, Saints, etc) - they are all producing more than 1 major receiving option. The passing numbers are up across the board, and especially for the top offenses. Not only that, but passin attemps are up, and I think that continues. Having two 1,000 yard WRs is not what it was even 5-7 years ago; it's common, even. I don't think having Nicks line up on the other side of Cruz is a hinderance to his dynasty value at all. I think it's a plus, even.

 

[Zeff]

Although you can't put too much stock in it, I like that Cruz is saying all the right things with respect to his upcoming contract stuff. At his word, he seems committed to staying put and being part of something in NY long term, and seems to suggest that there's no holding out or contractual hardball that will see him forcing his way onto Cleveland or wherever in the future.

 

[Hoosier16]

I think the overwhelming reason is that many people dug their heals in so hard last year against accepting Cruz, that they aren't willing to admit to even themselves that they were wrong. If you look back at some of the threads last year, you'll see that many were still expecting Manningham to pass Cruz, well into October after it was clear that Cruz was matching Nicks in targets and production. Those people won't reverse their position easily and will likely just quietly fade away.

 

[Squintz82]

I think everyone is forgetting that the Giants can't run the ball anymore. Eli has been making big plays the last couple of seasons, and there will be plenty of passes to go around. With that said, being a Giants homer I very much predict Cruz has a big year. Maybe not AS big as last year, but Eli knows Cruz will move the chains and has been trusting him.

I'm drinking the Cruz Koolaid

 

[John 14:6]

Thanks for the response, it's well thought out and insightful.I'll just add this: There is more margin for error than most are accounting for, I think. What Cruz did in 2011, he did in 14 games. That is 12.5% right there; meaning, if he put up the same numbers over 16 games, his production would have dropped 12.5% and STILL be top 3-5. His target % could did 3-4% and still produce as a WR1. And, again, I think we are playing in a different NFL today. Different even than when Manning was throwing to Wayne/Harrison.. Look at the best teams in the NFL (Giants, Patriots, Packers, Saints, etc) - they are all producing more than 1 major receiving option. The passing numbers are up across the board, and especially for the top offenses. Not only that, but passin attemps are up, and I think that continues. Having two 1,000 yard WRs is not what it was even 5-7 years ago; it's common, even. I don't think having Nicks line up on the other side of Cruz is a hinderance to his dynasty value at all. I think it's a plus, even.

Great thread, Concept. I recall a while back someone doing a similar analysis of Priest Holmes after his first really productive season. He then went on to score over 20 TDs the following season and became the bast back in fantasy for a few years. Like rizzler mentioned, look also at Arian Foster... and Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, etc. Players don't have to be drafted high to become superstars...

 

[Concept Coop]

Great thread, Concept. I recall a while back someone doing a similar analysis of Priest Holmes after his first really productive season. He then went on to score over 20 TDs the following season and became the bast back in fantasy for a few years. Like rizzler mentioned, look also at Arian Foster... and Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, etc. Players don't have to be drafted high to become superstars...

Agree 100%.You have to look at what Cruz is, and project what he will do based off of that. Anything outside of that (draft position, college, salary) is just noise.

If I watched Cruz play and he didn't pass the eye test, that would be one thing. But he does. Very much so. He has blazing game speed, great hands, great body control, he runs great routes, and, what sticks out to me the most, great quickness in tight spaces. He gives a corner, and a defenses in general, so much to worry about. He is a threat at all 3 levels of the field, and a threat to run the entire route tree.

Last year I went "all in" on LeSean McCoy and he won me a lot of money. I have the same feeling and the same certainty with Cruz, this year. I think owners should be cashing in on the general "wait and see" of the hobby's community.

 

[FDC]

Great thread, Concept. I recall a while back someone doing a similar analysis of Priest Holmes after his first really productive season. He then went on to score over 20 TDs the following season and became the bast back in fantasy for a few years. Like rizzler mentioned, look also at Arian Foster... and Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, etc. Players don't have to be drafted high to become superstars...

Agree 100%.You have to look at what Cruz is, and project what he will do based off of that. Anything outside of that (draft position, college, salary) is just noise.

If I watched Cruz play and he didn't pass the eye test, that would be one thing. But he does. Very much so. He has blazing game speed, great hands, great body control, he runs great routes, and, what sticks out to me the most, great quickness in tight spaces. He gives a corner, and a defenses in general, so much to worry about. He is a threat at all 3 levels of the field, and a threat to run the entire route tree.

Last year I went "all in" on LeSean McCoy and he won me a lot of money. I have the same feeling and the same certainty with Cruz, this year. I think owners should be cashing in on the general "wait and see" of the hobby's community.

So where are you drafting Cruz this year?Cruz is about the 10th WR off the board this year and WR5-10 are all going 3rd round or so. Isn't it hard to go "all in" on Cruz if you have to secure him with a 2nd round pick?

 

[Concept Coop]

Great thread, Concept. I recall a while back someone doing a similar analysis of Priest Holmes after his first really productive season. He then went on to score over 20 TDs the following season and became the bast back in fantasy for a few years. Like rizzler mentioned, look also at Arian Foster... and Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, etc. Players don't have to be drafted high to become superstars...

Agree 100%.You have to look at what Cruz is, and project what he will do based off of that. Anything outside of that (draft position, college, salary) is just noise.

If I watched Cruz play and he didn't pass the eye test, that would be one thing. But he does. Very much so. He has blazing game speed, great hands, great body control, he runs great routes, and, what sticks out to me the most, great quickness in tight spaces. He gives a corner, and a defenses in general, so much to worry about. He is a threat at all 3 levels of the field, and a threat to run the entire route tree.

Last year I went "all in" on LeSean McCoy and he won me a lot of money. I have the same feeling and the same certainty with Cruz, this year. I think owners should be cashing in on the general "wait and see" of the hobby's community.

So where are you drafting Cruz this year?Cruz is about the 10th WR off the board this year and WR5-10 are all going 3rd round or so. Isn't it hard to go "all in" on Cruz if you have to secure him with a 2nd round pick?

The only re-drafts I have done this year are ESPN mocks, and I get Cruz in the 3rd often. ESPN is absurdly cautious in their projections for Cruz (as is FBG) so he doesn't go as high as he should on their site. So take that for what it's worth, if anything. But, to put it into context, I like Cruz more than I do Andre Johnson in re-draft, and MUCH more than Andre Johnson in dynasty formats. I like him a lot more than AJ Green in re-draft and almost equally in dynasty formats. Or, to put a number on it, 85/13-1400/10.

I anticipate that I will be able to get Cruz as WR 10-12, and I think he should be 3-4, where he finished last year. That is a solid discrepancy and there is room to get major value if I am right. As far as going "all in", I'll gladly draft Cruz where I have him valued if I feel I need to. Luckily, I don't think I will.

 

[jurb26]

Cruz is a guy who has really grown on me the past few weeks. The main reason for that is I completed my yearly projections for every team and thus ran them through my excel file for my player projections few weeks ago. When I was done I couldnt believe what I saw. I was shocked to see that Cruz, yes Victor Cruz, had ranked as the #2 WR on my list! I reworked the numbers, thinking I had to have made a mistake and again.... Cruz was sitting there as my #2 ranked WR. Granted the separation between him and the next 5 or so guys was small. None the less this really struck me. I try to be as impartial as possible when I run the numbers but no matter what you kind of think you have an idea of where people will fall and I would have guessed Cruz to be around 10, not 2. This is PPR BTW.

I'm telling you this because I want you to know I'm really rethinking my position on Cruz as a whole now because of this. Particularly as it relates to dynasty. When I think about dynasty though I start to really dig into a guys true talent and ability. Here is where I begin to worry about Cruz a little and perhaps I'm wrong on this. At any rate, its how I'm leaning right now. I just don't think Cruz is a guy with elite talent. Yes he is very good but I feel like his ability to produce elite fantasy numbers is a product of him being very good but in a great system. We have seen other WRs produce great numbers in a similar role to Cruz's in the past and I don't think those guys were special talents either. NYG have shown an ability to really get the most out of their WRs recently and Cruz in no different. Perhaps it's Eli that is responsible for this? On top of that, NYG havent really shown a great deal of loyalty when it comes to their WR position. Will that change with Cruz?

I find myself asking the question of what would happen if Cruz went elsewhere? I won't get into the speculation behind what I think would happen. I'll just suffice it to say I'd have doubts and have to really contemplate it for a long time to come to a final decision. That makes me nervous. It makes me nervous because I don't share that same feeling with several other WRs such as C. Johnson, AJ Green, J. Jones, H. Nicks, Fitz or Bowe.

The bottom line is that for me, to value a player that highly in dynasty I have to really believe he has that elite ability to transcend almost any scheme. I don't quite feel that way about Cruz. At least not yet. Therefore I have to keep him out of my top 5 and somewhere in the 10 range.

 

[Chazzhawk]

I think most people think he surprised a lot of teams and they will pay more attention to him this year. The flaw in that logic is Nicks, if he is healthy you can't double both and if you do, Bradshaw/Wilson will probably beat you in the run game.

The other reason why people are downing playing Cruz as a top 5 receiver in dynasty formats is because sooner or later the Giants are going to have to choose, Nicks or Cruz, it is hard to believe they can afford both, without seriously hindering other positions on the team. If they choose Nicks, can Cruz go to another team and be the guy? We don't know.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think most people think he surprised a lot of teams and they will pay more attention to him this year. The flaw in that logic is Nicks, if he is healthy you can't double both and if you do, Bradshaw/Wilson will probably beat you in the run game. The other reason why people are downing playing Cruz as a top 5 receiver in dynasty formats is because sooner or later the Giants are going to have to choose, Nicks or Cruz, it is hard to believe they can afford both, without seriously hindering other positions on the team. If they choose Nicks, can Cruz go to another team and be the guy? We don't know.

Cruz wants to stay with the Giants and is even willing to prove his worth again this year. He will be a Giant long term, in my opinion. I will say again, it is very hard to double Cruz, much in the same way it is hard to double Wes Welker. Welker is an exaggeration, a bit, to make my point - Cruz isn't that quick (who is?). But Cruz can be effective underneath (prior to help over the top)and can be moved around, including in the slot.So, while teams will likely give him more attention than they did during the first 4-8 weeks of the season, I don't think he will be exposed as not being able to produce under said circumstances. The NFL is a thorough business - nobody was surprised by Victor Cruz during the last 6 weeks of the season. He was game planned for and was still very productive.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cruz is a guy who has really grown on me the past few weeks. The main reason for that is I completed my yearly projections for every team and thus ran them through my excel file for my player projections few weeks ago. When I was done I couldnt believe what I saw. I was shocked to see that Cruz, yes Victor Cruz, had ranked as the #2 WR on my list! I reworked the numbers, thinking I had to have made a mistake and again.... Cruz was sitting there as my #2 ranked WR. Granted the separation between him and the next 5 or so guys was small. None the less this really struck me. I try to be as impartial as possible when I run the numbers but no matter what you kind of think you have an idea of where people will fall and I would have guessed Cruz to be around 10, not 2. This is PPR BTW.I'm telling you this because I want you to know I'm really rethinking my position on Cruz as a whole now because of this. Particularly as it relates to dynasty. When I think about dynasty though I start to really dig into a guys true talent and ability. Here is where I begin to worry about Cruz a little and perhaps I'm wrong on this. At any rate, its how I'm leaning right now. I just don't think Cruz is a guy with elite talent. Yes he is very good but I feel like his ability to produce elite fantasy numbers is a product of him being very good but in a great system. We have seen other WRs produce great numbers in a similar role to Cruz's in the past and I don't think those guys were special talents either. NYG have shown an ability to really get the most out of their WRs recently and Cruz in no different. Perhaps it's Eli that is responsible for this? On top of that, NYG havent really shown a great deal of loyalty when it comes to their WR position. Will that change with Cruz? I find myself asking the question of what would happen if Cruz went elsewhere? I won't get into the speculation behind what I think would happen. I'll just suffice it to say I'd have doubts and have to really contemplate it for a long time to come to a final decision. That makes me nervous. It makes me nervous because I don't share that same feeling with several other WRs such as C. Johnson, AJ Green, J. Jones, H. Nicks, Fitz or Bowe. The bottom line is that for me, to value a player that highly in dynasty I have to really believe he has that elite ability to transcend almost any scheme. I don't quite feel that way about Cruz. At least not yet. Therefore I have to keep him out of my top 5 and somewhere in the 10 range.

I respect this post, and your opinion on the matter. Let me ask why you don't think he an elite talent, however. What is he missing that keeps you from labeling him elite?I personally think he is elite, but won't deny that a lot of his appeal is in his situation. I absolutely give him a bump for playing in the system with the players he has around him, mostly Eli. I think that has to be taken into consideration, even in dynasty formats. I wouldn't miss out on 5 years of Marques Colston's production because I worry what he would do in Arizona with Hall/Anderson/Kolb/Skelton. I won't miss out on Stafford over the next 5 years, wondering what he would do in Seattle throwing to a glass scuplture of Sidney Rice. I did that with Arian Foster and missed out on a career's worth of VBD in a 2 year period. But, you are right to not value him as top 5, if you don't think he is elite. You have to make that call before doing so.

 

[bengalbuck]

I both agree and disagree with the premise of the thread. I do personally have Cruz in a lower tier than Green, Julio and Fitz. I think there is less risk involved with all 3 guys. However, I do have Cruz very near the top of my next tier of WRs and don't view him as a fluke at all. I think he's a top 7 dynasty guy.

The reasons I see him as more risky than AJ/Julio are:

1. While Cruz is very talented, I don't see the freaky athleticism that I see from AJ and Julio.

2. Track record. While your point that they've each had one full NFL season and thus are equally proven (or Cruz is more proven b/c his season was bigger) is true. You also do have to look at the bigger picture as a dynasty owner (in my opinion). AJ and Julio were amongst the top 5 high school players in the country their senior year and were considered the best talents to ever come into their area. They immediately stepped in as true freshmen in the SEC and both finished in the top 5 in the SEC in receiving yards ahead of older guys like Mike Wallace and Percy Harvin. They produced all 3 years against great defenses. Then stepped into the NFL with no offseason and put up huge numbers as rookies. Whether you want to call it pedigree or whatever, this history of what they've done the past 5 seasons counts for something.

3. As others have mentioned, some of Cruz's stats feel a little fluky. There were some really long TDs on crazy plays where the ball was tipped and could have bounced the other direction. Plus, I don't expect Eli to throw for almost 5,000 yards again. The Giants were hit by a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball that led to their defense really struggling for long stretches and their running game finishing dead last in the league. History says Eli returns to throwing for closer to 4,000 yards.

4. The Giants passing offense has shown that it can produce big numbers for whoever the top 2 or 3 WRs are, but it has a history of inconsistency. 2 years ago, Steve Smith was being drafted in the 4th or 5th round of dynasty startups. Last year, I saw Mario Manningham going in the 5th or 6th round of startups. I don't think its likely that Cruz falls by the wayside, but the history of big production whoever the WR is makes me think that Cruz is a lot more replaceable than Green or Julio, whose teams invested very valuable assets in. Plus, I'm a big Rueben Randle believer.

Overall, if you...

1. view the Giants as more of a 4,200 yard passing team as opposed to 5,000.

2. like the talent of Nicks and Randle (and 2 good pass catching RBs) as guys that will also eat up big chunks of that 4,200

3. and have some slight worries that he's only under contract 2 more years and may be viewed as somewhat replaceable due to the Giants recent history at WR

Then it makes sense to have him rated somewhere in that WR 5-10 range, but have enough reservations and concerns to keep him out of that elite tier with AJ, Julio and Fitz.

 

[Hoosier16]

I both agree and disagree with the premise of the thread. I do personally have Cruz in a lower tier than Green, Julio and Fitz. I think there is less risk involved with all 3 guys. However, I do have Cruz very near the top of my next tier of WRs and don't view him as a fluke at all. I think he's a top 7 dynasty guy.The reasons I see him as more risky than AJ/Julio are:1. While Cruz is very talented, I don't see the freaky athleticism that I see from AJ and Julio.

Jerry Rice wasn't freaky athletic. And before you say it, no, I'm not comparing him to Jerry Rice. But, you don't have to be an athletic freak to be a top 5 WR.

2. Track record. While your point that they've each had one full NFL season and thus are equally proven (or Cruz is more proven b/c his season was bigger) is true. You also do have to look at the bigger picture as a dynasty owner (in my opinion). AJ and Julio were amongst the top 5 high school players in the country their senior year and were considered the best talents to ever come into their area. They immediately stepped in as true freshmen in the SEC and both finished in the top 5 in the SEC in receiving yards ahead of older guys like Mike Wallace and Percy Harvin. They produced all 3 years against great defenses. Then stepped into the NFL with no offseason and put up huge numbers as rookies. Whether you want to call it pedigree or whatever, this history of what they've done the past 5 seasons counts for something.

No it doesn't. High school no longer matters. College no longer matters. The only thing that matters is how you perform in your current job. It's the same in any profession.

3. As others have mentioned, some of Cruz's stats feel a little fluky. There were some really long TDs on crazy plays where the ball was tipped and could have bounced the other direction. Plus, I don't expect Eli to throw for almost 5,000 yards again. The Giants were hit by a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball that led to their defense really struggling for long stretches and their running game finishing dead last in the league. History says Eli returns to throwing for closer to 4,000 yards.

As far as flukiness goes, it basically boils down to this: If you were pro Cruz last year, he's a big play WR. If you were anti Cruz last year, his plays were fluky.As far as Manning regressing, history also said that there would not have been 5 QBs around 5000 yards last year. With only 2 in the prior 29 years, how did that happen? Look at the yardage progression over the last 5-10 years. It's going up.

4. The Giants passing offense has shown that it can produce big numbers for whoever the top 2 or 3 WRs are, but it has a history of inconsistency. 2 years ago, Steve Smith was being drafted in the 4th or 5th round of dynasty startups. Last year, I saw Mario Manningham going in the 5th or 6th round of startups. I don't think its likely that Cruz falls by the wayside, but the history of big production whoever the WR is makes me think that Cruz is a lot more replaceable than Green or Julio, whose teams invested very valuable assets in. Plus, I'm a big Rueben Randle believer.

Steve Smith got hurt. Manningham never produced anywhere near the level of Cruz. Who was the last 1500 yard WR that wasn't retained by their team? Teams don't let high character, high producing, uninjured WRs in their prime go to another team.

 

[Steed]

I remember after miles Austin emerged a few people were saying he should be the number 1 dynasty wr. Made some compelling points too. What happened?

The pixy dust wore off. He had a HUGE season, so did Cruz. A confluence of factors, including health, worked in both of their favors. But rarely does everything go right for a very long time. Only if the player has elite talent can he get through the lean times, and even that isn't enough in some cases. That's why Cruz is going to disappoint this year, he's good not great. Definitely not top 5. And this is coming from a guy that owned him in 10 leagues and even rostered him in a couple deep leagues during the 2011 offseason.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I think it comes down to his initial frame of reference. It will take a LOT of data to the contrary to force people to re-evaluate their stance on Cruz. It isn't fair, but it is rather universal - the more a person has invested in their evaluation of a player, the longer it usually takes them to adjust accordingly when that evaluation no longer proves accurate.

This. Until he repeats what he did last year, or at least puts together another 1000 yard season, it will be difficult to put him in the ranks of people like AJ Green or Julio Jones. These are players who a lot of people gave up a lot for, and were drafted in the top 3 of all rookie drafts, so it is tough to rank a "nobody" along side them.Personally, I think Cruz is the real deal. He definitely passes the eye test, and I agree that it would be hard to argue against a top 10 ranking in dynasty, especially in PPR. There is no reason to think his situation will change for the next 3-4 years.

 

[Concept Coop]

I remember after miles Austin emerged a few people were saying he should be the number 1 dynasty wr. Made some compelling points too. What happened?

He started off fantastically, before Romo got hurt and Kitna damaged his season. The following year, Austin himself was injured early on.There are plenty of instances of players coming on big, out of nowhere, and going on to duplicate those numbers.There's no magic dust that Cruz used to consistently produce at such a high rate.

 

[stbugs]

I think Cruz is solid, but I can see the hesitation. If you watched the postseason, Nicks was a monster. Cruz played very well in the 4 games, but Nicks averaged 7-111-1TD. Even though it is the postseason, 4 games is a 1/4 season and a decent sample size.

The only thing that worries me about Cruz is the long TDs. Not in terms of saying he wasn't good, but he had 9TDs and 5 of them were 68-99 yards. In terms of the top WRs, it is rare to find someone who isn't a red zone threat. Yes, there is AJ, but is Cruz that talented? The rest of the top WRs are red-zone threats. Its kind of like Jamal Charles if Hillis steals all the goal line TD attempts. It means Charles has to score from outside and while he can, a few lucky tackles and he is out of the top 5.

Again, those 5 catches accounted for 33% of his total fantasy points in non-PPR. In PPR, it is not so bad, but still 25%. That scares me a bit, especially for a guy who could easily end up with just a handful of TDs. With Nicks and what we have seen so far, you can at least not worry as much about the TD production even if both are healthy.

I don't think I would touch Cruz unless he falls to an area where I am picking among more PPR scoring type guys, where I think Cruz will still do well. A lot of very good points in this thread, but I think those long TDs really represent a risk unless Cruz turns into even more of a PPR monster getting closer to 100 catches.

 

[bengalbuck]

I both agree and disagree with the premise of the thread. I do personally have Cruz in a lower tier than Green, Julio and Fitz. I think there is less risk involved with all 3 guys. However, I do have Cruz very near the top of my next tier of WRs and don't view him as a fluke at all. I think he's a top 7 dynasty guy.

The reasons I see him as more risky than AJ/Julio are:

1. While Cruz is very talented, I don't see the freaky athleticism that I see from AJ and Julio.

Jerry Rice wasn't freaky athletic. And before you say it, no, I'm not comparing him to Jerry Rice. But, you don't have to be an athletic freak to be a top 5 WR.I never said you had to be a freaky athlete to be a top 5 WR did I? But I'd prefer a guy who stands out athletically over a guy who doesn't. If you don't, that's your right...

2. Track record. While your point that they've each had one full NFL season and thus are equally proven (or Cruz is more proven b/c his season was bigger) is true. You also do have to look at the bigger picture as a dynasty owner (in my opinion). AJ and Julio were amongst the top 5 high school players in the country their senior year and were considered the best talents to ever come into their area. They immediately stepped in as true freshmen in the SEC and both finished in the top 5 in the SEC in receiving yards ahead of older guys like Mike Wallace and Percy Harvin. They produced all 3 years against great defenses. Then stepped into the NFL with no offseason and put up huge numbers as rookies. Whether you want to call it pedigree or whatever, this history of what they've done the past 5 seasons counts for something.

No it doesn't. High school no longer matters. College no longer matters. The only thing that matters is how you perform in your current job. It's the same in any profession.That is your opinion. I take ALL the available info into account. Anyone who purposely ignores information is setting themselves up for failure in dynasty leagues...

Also, for what its worth, I predicted before last season that Green and Julio would have much bigger rookie years than most were predicting and cited their immediate impact as true freshmen as a basis of that opinion and I was correct...

3. As others have mentioned, some of Cruz's stats feel a little fluky. There were some really long TDs on crazy plays where the ball was tipped and could have bounced the other direction. Plus, I don't expect Eli to throw for almost 5,000 yards again. The Giants were hit by a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball that led to their defense really struggling for long stretches and their running game finishing dead last in the league. History says Eli returns to throwing for closer to 4,000 yards.

As far as flukiness goes, it basically boils down to this: If you were pro Cruz last year, he's a big play WR. If you were anti Cruz last year, his plays were fluky.I'm neither pro-Cruz nor anti-Cruz. But if I'm making projections, I'm not going to project him to score a 99 yard TD and 4 other 75+ yard TDs every year going forward....

As far as Manning regressing, history also said that there would not have been 5 QBs around 5000 yards last year. With only 2 in the prior 29 years, how did that happen? Look at the yardage progression over the last 5-10 years. It's going up.

Okay, great. If you think Manning is going to throw for 5,000 yards every season then you should have Cruz as a top 3 dynasty WR. Personally I do not and gave the reasons why I thought so...

4. The Giants passing offense has shown that it can produce big numbers for whoever the top 2 or 3 WRs are, but it has a history of inconsistency. 2 years ago, Steve Smith was being drafted in the 4th or 5th round of dynasty startups. Last year, I saw Mario Manningham going in the 5th or 6th round of startups. I don't think its likely that Cruz falls by the wayside, but the history of big production whoever the WR is makes me think that Cruz is a lot more replaceable than Green or Julio, whose teams invested very valuable assets in. Plus, I'm a big Rueben Randle believer.

Steve Smith got hurt. Manningham never produced anywhere near the level of Cruz. Who was the last 1500 yard WR that wasn't retained by their team? Teams don't let high character, high producing, uninjured WRs in their prime go to another team.

My whole point is that Cruz is a product of his system and his QB to a greater extent than a guy like AJ Green is. I don't think that's too controversial...I think a guy like Green and Julio are the type of WRs who will put up great numbers no matter the QB. Similarly, Calvin and Fitz have shown the same ability. I don't think Cruz puts up 1400 yards with Kolb/Skelton throwing him the ball like Fitz just did. That is one of the reasons that I would put Fitz just a bit ahead of Cruz. As to the chances he leaves NY, I don't necessarily think they are high, but its not crazy either. He'll be a FA the same year as Nicks. We've seen teams have to choose one WR over another (Pittsburgh). And in recent years we've seen some guys who put up one huge season switch teams (Steve Smith, Sydney Rice, VJax, possibly Mike Wallace, etc.).

 

[Hoosier16]

My whole point is that Cruz is a product of his system and his QB to a greater extent than a guy like AJ Green is.

I think I've heard that argument somewhere before.

 

[Concept Coop]

I both agree and disagree with the premise of the thread. I do personally have Cruz in a lower tier than Green, Julio and Fitz. I think there is less risk involved with all 3 guys. However, I do have Cruz very near the top of my next tier of WRs and don't view him as a fluke at all. I think he's a top 7 dynasty guy.

Good post. Thanks for sharing your opinion.Clearly, Megatron in his own tier, and there is a big gap. After that, there are three guys that I rank above Cruz, in a vacuum: Julio, Green, and Fitz. (Standard: Jones, Fitz, Green. PPR: Fitz, Green, Jones). I rank all three very closely and in some circumstances, I view Cruz as right in that mix. After those 4 guys, the next tier of players all have questions - as many as Cruz, in my opinion. You are right: In a vacuum, removing situational influences, Cruz is not top 5. Dez Bryant is, depending on format, Mike Wallace is, Hakeem Nicks could be, etcetera. I don't think you should remove his situation from the equation in a capacity that causes you to miss out on points, however. I am not comfortable in my opinion on what Marvin Harrison would have been outside of Peyton Manning (Clark and Wayne, too), but that doesn't change the fact that he had a great career that produced massive VBD. I think Arian Foster is an elite talent, but put him in Minny, where he doesn't have a predetermined cut and is often hit at the line of scrimmage, and he is not the #1 dynasty RB. Put Jonathan Stewart in another situation and maybe he is. As for a few other point you made:-The NFL is changing, I don't expect the passing numbers and attemps to revert to what they were, even 2-3 years ago. The rule changes offer major advantage to those that can exploi it. The numbers could level off, some, or come back to earth. I don't expect 3-4 QBs approaching the record every year, but in general, I think the numbers remain higher than they have been. That includes the Giants. -As for Cruz's stats feeling flukey - they pass the eye test to me. He is a big play maker and will continue to make them. And, as I said, remove those big plays and he is still well over 1,000 yards in 14 games. How many WRs can you remove their 5 biggest plays and say that about? Cruz is very much a possession WR, as well as being a homerun hitter. His TDs could vary, but his production will be consistantly good. His talent will allow him to present hiself as a solid target to his QB, consistantly.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think Cruz is solid, but I can see the hesitation. If you watched the postseason, Nicks was a monster. Cruz played very well in the 4 games, but Nicks averaged 7-111-1TD. Even though it is the postseason, 4 games is a 1/4 season and a decent sample size.The only thing that worries me about Cruz is the long TDs. Not in terms of saying he wasn't good, but he had 9TDs and 5 of them were 68-99 yards. In terms of the top WRs, it is rare to find someone who isn't a red zone threat. Yes, there is AJ, but is Cruz that talented? The rest of the top WRs are red-zone threats. Its kind of like Jamal Charles if Hillis steals all the goal line TD attempts. It means Charles has to score from outside and while he can, a few lucky tackles and he is out of the top 5.Again, those 5 catches accounted for 33% of his total fantasy points in non-PPR. In PPR, it is not so bad, but still 25%. That scares me a bit, especially for a guy who could easily end up with just a handful of TDs. With Nicks and what we have seen so far, you can at least not worry as much about the TD production even if both are healthy.I don't think I would touch Cruz unless he falls to an area where I am picking among more PPR scoring type guys, where I think Cruz will still do well. A lot of very good points in this thread, but I think those long TDs really represent a risk unless Cruz turns into even more of a PPR monster getting closer to 100 catches.

These long TDs equally apply to Mike Wallace, Julio Jones, AJ Green and many more. Why are we removing them from Cruz, but not the others? Especially when Cruz was just as consistent in hitting the homerun? Cruz is dangerous in space. He is quick enough to make one guy miss and fast enough to trot into the end zone after doing so. His homeruns weren't flukes. I do agree that there is some concern in Cruz not being an ideal red zone threat. That does cap his ceiling somewhat, but I think we should keep that in perspective. He has plenty of upside, as he has showed.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Cruz's floor is the playoffs last year. Defenses clamped down on him bigtime, and forced Nicks to beat them (with a 28/444/4td slash in 4 games, he sure did). Cruz only put up 21/269/1td in the playoffs, which still comes out to 84 rec, 1076 yards, and 4 td. While that could be slightly concerning to those thinking he's top 10 (considering without Manningham defenses could zone in on Cruz more this year), the playoffs tend to be more defensively minded, as opposed to the regular season. Also, Cruz is a good YAC guy. I can't imagine him repeating last year, but he should be a solid bet for at least 2 or 3 long td's via some "shake and bake" moves. The Giants will play a lot of good teams this year and a bunch of teams with top notch offenses, so they will be throwing a lot (also their offensive line can't seem to run block so far in the preseason). If Cruz gets a solid 2nd year under his belt, at that point (assuming he resigns with the Giants or another solid offense) he will start garnering the attention he deserves. For those that get him in the teens range, whether it is keeper, re-draft, dynasty, etc..you have yourself a potential steal.

 

[John 14:6]

Would you guys consider Cruz comparable to Jimmy Graham? Both have had one terrific season, however Graham is being much more highly praised than Cruz. I think part of that, as Concept is pointing out with this thread, is due to the hype building up for Graham towards the end of the season before the breakout. Had Cruz had that kind of hype, I think he'd be more highly praised now as well...

 

[JFT Ben]

Can anyone compare Cruz's NFL game to another player? Is he as smooth and good route runner as Greg Jennings (similar size at least)? Not seeing a lot of NYG games, it would help to have a comparison on his strengths and weaknesses as player and how he went from undrafted to fighting his way into this discussion.

 

[stbugs]

I think Cruz is solid, but I can see the hesitation. If you watched the postseason, Nicks was a monster. Cruz played very well in the 4 games, but Nicks averaged 7-111-1TD. Even though it is the postseason, 4 games is a 1/4 season and a decent sample size.The only thing that worries me about Cruz is the long TDs. Not in terms of saying he wasn't good, but he had 9TDs and 5 of them were 68-99 yards. In terms of the top WRs, it is rare to find someone who isn't a red zone threat. Yes, there is AJ, but is Cruz that talented? The rest of the top WRs are red-zone threats. Its kind of like Jamal Charles if Hillis steals all the goal line TD attempts. It means Charles has to score from outside and while he can, a few lucky tackles and he is out of the top 5.Again, those 5 catches accounted for 33% of his total fantasy points in non-PPR. In PPR, it is not so bad, but still 25%. That scares me a bit, especially for a guy who could easily end up with just a handful of TDs. With Nicks and what we have seen so far, you can at least not worry as much about the TD production even if both are healthy.I don't think I would touch Cruz unless he falls to an area where I am picking among more PPR scoring type guys, where I think Cruz will still do well. A lot of very good points in this thread, but I think those long TDs really represent a risk unless Cruz turns into even more of a PPR monster getting closer to 100 catches.

These long TDs equally apply to Mike Wallace, Julio Jones, AJ Green and many more. Why are we removing them from Cruz, but not the others? Especially when Cruz was just as consistent in hitting the homerun? Cruz is dangerous in space. He is quick enough to make one guy miss and fast enough to trot into the end zone after doing so. His homeruns weren't flukes. I do agree that there is some concern in Cruz not being an ideal red zone threat. That does cap his ceiling somewhat, but I think we should keep that in perspective. He has plenty of upside, as he has showed.

First of all, I never said remove them. I just said it scares me that 5 of his 9 TDs were from 68+ yards. Those aren't long TDs, those are extremely long TDs. You mentioned Wallace and Green. Wallace has 24 TDs in his career and only 2 are from 68+ yards. He has 11 TDs from 40-60 yards, which to me are normal long TDs for a big armed QB like Roethlisberger. Green had 7 TDs last year with the longest of 43. 4 of his 7 were from 36-43 yards, again right around where I would expect them to be for a QB of Dalton who doesn't quite have Roethlisberger's arm. Heck, he just caught a 50 yard TD in last week's preseason game.So, Wallace and Green's long TDs are usually in the 36-60 yard range. That tells me that Cruz's 5 of 9 from 68, 72, 74, 74 and 99 are a bit beyond the normal long TD. Also, for Wallace and Green, they aren't what I would consider TD machines, yet, but out of their combined 31 TDs, 8 of them were inside the red zone and only 1 of Cruz's 9 TDs last year was.That is what worries me a bit, that so much of his damage was from those extremely long TDs. Sure he has potential, but I can see where it is a risk. What if defenses key on him more, enough to make sure they move coverage around to avoid the homeruns? Out of 185 career TDs for Manning over 8 years, Cruz had 5 of the top 10 distance TDs (all in 2011) and one of the 10 was a Jacobs screen pass. I'm sorry, but even if he has potential, you cannot say that Eli to Cruz for 5 68+ yard TDs is likely every year.

 

[stbugs]

Cruz's floor is the playoffs last year. Defenses clamped down on him bigtime, and forced Nicks to beat them (with a 28/444/4td slash in 4 games, he sure did). Cruz only put up 21/269/1td in the playoffs, which still comes out to 84 rec, 1076 yards, and 4 td. While that could be slightly concerning to those thinking he's top 10 (considering without Manningham defenses could zone in on Cruz more this year), the playoffs tend to be more defensively minded, as opposed to the regular season. Also, Cruz is a good YAC guy. I can't imagine him repeating last year, but he should be a solid bet for at least 2 or 3 long td's via some "shake and bake" moves. The Giants will play a lot of good teams this year and a bunch of teams with top notch offenses, so they will be throwing a lot (also their offensive line can't seem to run block so far in the preseason). If Cruz gets a solid 2nd year under his belt, at that point (assuming he resigns with the Giants or another solid offense) he will start garnering the attention he deserves. For those that get him in the teens range, whether it is keeper, re-draft, dynasty, etc..you have yourself a potential steal.

I would be interested in hearing from Giants fans, but somehow I doubt that Nicks was wide open and teams forced Nicks to beat them. I don't think Cruz was treated like Calvin and Nicks like Young/Burelson. Nicks appeared to be 100% healthy at the end of the year and I am pretty sure he was a concern. Maybe Eli went to him more and won't do that every week, but I am pretty sure Nicks commanded the same defense and was most likely covered by the CB1 as much as Cruz was.That 1 TD in the playoffs is what worries me about Cruz. Based on his extremely long TDs, it isn't a stretch to see him end 2012 with 5ish TDs and unless he catches 100 balls, hard to be top 5. If Nicks is healthy for 15/16 games, does anyone think he isn't going to approach 10 TDs?Again, I like Cruz, but I can definitely see why his ADP is where it is, just based on TD risk alone. If you grab him in the 3rd, he has value as I agree he definitely has a higher ceiling than most in his tier.

 

[Hoosier16]

I think Cruz is solid, but I can see the hesitation. If you watched the postseason, Nicks was a monster. Cruz played very well in the 4 games, but Nicks averaged 7-111-1TD. Even though it is the postseason, 4 games is a 1/4 season and a decent sample size.The only thing that worries me about Cruz is the long TDs. Not in terms of saying he wasn't good, but he had 9TDs and 5 of them were 68-99 yards. In terms of the top WRs, it is rare to find someone who isn't a red zone threat. Yes, there is AJ, but is Cruz that talented? The rest of the top WRs are red-zone threats. Its kind of like Jamal Charles if Hillis steals all the goal line TD attempts. It means Charles has to score from outside and while he can, a few lucky tackles and he is out of the top 5.Again, those 5 catches accounted for 33% of his total fantasy points in non-PPR. In PPR, it is not so bad, but still 25%. That scares me a bit, especially for a guy who could easily end up with just a handful of TDs. With Nicks and what we have seen so far, you can at least not worry as much about the TD production even if both are healthy.I don't think I would touch Cruz unless he falls to an area where I am picking among more PPR scoring type guys, where I think Cruz will still do well. A lot of very good points in this thread, but I think those long TDs really represent a risk unless Cruz turns into even more of a PPR monster getting closer to 100 catches.

These long TDs equally apply to Mike Wallace, Julio Jones, AJ Green and many more. Why are we removing them from Cruz, but not the others? Especially when Cruz was just as consistent in hitting the homerun? Cruz is dangerous in space. He is quick enough to make one guy miss and fast enough to trot into the end zone after doing so. His homeruns weren't flukes. I do agree that there is some concern in Cruz not being an ideal red zone threat. That does cap his ceiling somewhat, but I think we should keep that in perspective. He has plenty of upside, as he has showed.

First of all, I never said remove them. I just said it scares me that 5 of his 9 TDs were from 68+ yards. Those aren't long TDs, those are extremely long TDs. You mentioned Wallace and Green. Wallace has 24 TDs in his career and only 2 are from 68+ yards. He has 11 TDs from 40-60 yards, which to me are normal long TDs for a big armed QB like Roethlisberger. Green had 7 TDs last year with the longest of 43. 4 of his 7 were from 36-43 yards, again right around where I would expect them to be for a QB of Dalton who doesn't quite have Roethlisberger's arm. Heck, he just caught a 50 yard TD in last week's preseason game.So, Wallace and Green's long TDs are usually in the 36-60 yard range. That tells me that Cruz's 5 of 9 from 68, 72, 74, 74 and 99 are a bit beyond the normal long TD. Also, for Wallace and Green, they aren't what I would consider TD machines, yet, but out of their combined 31 TDs, 8 of them were inside the red zone and only 1 of Cruz's 9 TDs last year was.That is what worries me a bit, that so much of his damage was from those extremely long TDs. Sure he has potential, but I can see where it is a risk. What if defenses key on him more, enough to make sure they move coverage around to avoid the homeruns? Out of 185 career TDs for Manning over 8 years, Cruz had 5 of the top 10 distance TDs (all in 2011) and one of the 10 was a Jacobs screen pass. I'm sorry, but even if he has potential, you cannot say that Eli to Cruz for 5 68+ yard TDs is likely every year.

This is still, to me, the most bizarre argument against Cruz. At what point do long TDs not become fluky and we start calling the WR 'elusive'? What if he had 10 long TDs? Does that make it more fluky or does that make him a very good RAC guy?I'm sure this may have already been pointed out, but if you reduce 3 of those (is that the right number to make him more normal?) long TDs to just 20 yard gains, it only reduces his yardage by about 150-180 yards. Then, if you give him 2 more full games as a starter (weeks 1 and 2), he likely gets that yardage back. So, for a full 16 game, non-fluky season, he could still put up close to the 1500 yards.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Cruz's floor is the playoffs last year. Defenses clamped down on him bigtime, and forced Nicks to beat them (with a 28/444/4td slash in 4 games, he sure did). Cruz only put up 21/269/1td in the playoffs, which still comes out to 84 rec, 1076 yards, and 4 td. While that could be slightly concerning to those thinking he's top 10 (considering without Manningham defenses could zone in on Cruz more this year), the playoffs tend to be more defensively minded, as opposed to the regular season. Also, Cruz is a good YAC guy. I can't imagine him repeating last year, but he should be a solid bet for at least 2 or 3 long td's via some "shake and bake" moves. The Giants will play a lot of good teams this year and a bunch of teams with top notch offenses, so they will be throwing a lot (also their offensive line can't seem to run block so far in the preseason). If Cruz gets a solid 2nd year under his belt, at that point (assuming he resigns with the Giants or another solid offense) he will start garnering the attention he deserves. For those that get him in the teens range, whether it is keeper, re-draft, dynasty, etc..you have yourself a potential steal.

I would be interested in hearing from Giants fans, but somehow I doubt that Nicks was wide open and teams forced Nicks to beat them. I don't think Cruz was treated like Calvin and Nicks like Young/Burelson. Nicks appeared to be 100% healthy at the end of the year and I am pretty sure he was a concern. Maybe Eli went to him more and won't do that every week, but I am pretty sure Nicks commanded the same defense and was most likely covered by the CB1 as much as Cruz was.That 1 TD in the playoffs is what worries me about Cruz. Based on his extremely long TDs, it isn't a stretch to see him end 2012 with 5ish TDs and unless he catches 100 balls, hard to be top 5. If Nicks is healthy for 15/16 games, does anyone think he isn't going to approach 10 TDs?Again, I like Cruz, but I can definitely see why his ADP is where it is, just based on TD risk alone. If you grab him in the 3rd, he has value as I agree he definitely has a higher ceiling than most in his tier.

I AM a Giants fan. Contrary to my user name, I've lived in NJ my whole life. Cruz was a much bigger focus in the playoffs than Nicks. There were tons of times however, that opposing teams basically tried to take BOTH of them out of the picture. Nicks was often given more wiggle room that Cruz though, which seems odd to me. One thing lost in this offseason (well not lost, but not mentioned enough) is that with Nicks out, Cruz has formed an even better chemistry with Manning this year. I heard that just by looking at Cruz's body movement, Manning knows where he is going, and by the time Cruz turns around, the ball is there. You could see it in the Jets game that they are already dialed in. Nicks is still the more talented receiver, but for ppr fantasy purposes, Cruz is the guy to own. He's working in the slot as well as outside this year. He is a much more natural, and better slot receiever, however he does have the ability to be an effective outside receiver. While he had some fluky td's last year, you have to remember he was only a starter, or getting starter looks, for 14 games. Considering that Manningham is gone and that the o-line can't run block for s##t right now, Cruz will get more targets this year, and he already had 131 last year while not playing much in the 1st two games. He only saw 8 red zone targets though, so you should probably set your expectations at around 6-8 touchdowns for the year, but coupled with the amount of receptions and yardage he should put up, I doubt anyone is dissapointed. Two last things to mention, he will be a restricted free agent next year, and he didn't whine about a contract this year, so to me that says he is focused on having a great year and then earning that money. Also, even if the Giants play him outside some, because he will still be in the slot mainly, he will avoid other teams top corners most of the time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtx_Kwpigk0If you go to about 2:20 of that video, you will see Cruz schooling Nnamdi.

 

[Zaphod]

I think Cruz is solid, but I can see the hesitation. If you watched the postseason, Nicks was a monster. Cruz played very well in the 4 games, but Nicks averaged 7-111-1TD. Even though it is the postseason, 4 games is a 1/4 season and a decent sample size.The only thing that worries me about Cruz is the long TDs. Not in terms of saying he wasn't good, but he had 9TDs and 5 of them were 68-99 yards. In terms of the top WRs, it is rare to find someone who isn't a red zone threat. Yes, there is AJ, but is Cruz that talented? The rest of the top WRs are red-zone threats. Its kind of like Jamal Charles if Hillis steals all the goal line TD attempts. It means Charles has to score from outside and while he can, a few lucky tackles and he is out of the top 5.Again, those 5 catches accounted for 33% of his total fantasy points in non-PPR. In PPR, it is not so bad, but still 25%. That scares me a bit, especially for a guy who could easily end up with just a handful of TDs. With Nicks and what we have seen so far, you can at least not worry as much about the TD production even if both are healthy.I don't think I would touch Cruz unless he falls to an area where I am picking among more PPR scoring type guys, where I think Cruz will still do well. A lot of very good points in this thread, but I think those long TDs really represent a risk unless Cruz turns into even more of a PPR monster getting closer to 100 catches.

These long TDs equally apply to Mike Wallace, Julio Jones, AJ Green and many more. Why are we removing them from Cruz, but not the others? Especially when Cruz was just as consistent in hitting the homerun? Cruz is dangerous in space. He is quick enough to make one guy miss and fast enough to trot into the end zone after doing so. His homeruns weren't flukes. I do agree that there is some concern in Cruz not being an ideal red zone threat. That does cap his ceiling somewhat, but I think we should keep that in perspective. He has plenty of upside, as he has showed.

First of all, I never said remove them. I just said it scares me that 5 of his 9 TDs were from 68+ yards. Those aren't long TDs, those are extremely long TDs. You mentioned Wallace and Green. Wallace has 24 TDs in his career and only 2 are from 68+ yards. He has 11 TDs from 40-60 yards, which to me are normal long TDs for a big armed QB like Roethlisberger. Green had 7 TDs last year with the longest of 43. 4 of his 7 were from 36-43 yards, again right around where I would expect them to be for a QB of Dalton who doesn't quite have Roethlisberger's arm. Heck, he just caught a 50 yard TD in last week's preseason game.So, Wallace and Green's long TDs are usually in the 36-60 yard range. That tells me that Cruz's 5 of 9 from 68, 72, 74, 74 and 99 are a bit beyond the normal long TD. Also, for Wallace and Green, they aren't what I would consider TD machines, yet, but out of their combined 31 TDs, 8 of them were inside the red zone and only 1 of Cruz's 9 TDs last year was.That is what worries me a bit, that so much of his damage was from those extremely long TDs. Sure he has potential, but I can see where it is a risk. What if defenses key on him more, enough to make sure they move coverage around to avoid the homeruns? Out of 185 career TDs for Manning over 8 years, Cruz had 5 of the top 10 distance TDs (all in 2011) and one of the 10 was a Jacobs screen pass. I'm sorry, but even if he has potential, you cannot say that Eli to Cruz for 5 68+ yard TDs is likely every year.

This is still, to me, the most bizarre argument against Cruz. At what point do long TDs not become fluky and we start calling the WR 'elusive'? What if he had 10 long TDs? Does that make it more fluky or does that make him a very good RAC guy?I'm sure this may have already been pointed out, but if you reduce 3 of those (is that the right number to make him more normal?) long TDs to just 20 yard gains, it only reduces his yardage by about 150-180 yards. Then, if you give him 2 more full games as a starter (weeks 1 and 2), he likely gets that yardage back. So, for a full 16 game, non-fluky season, he could still put up close to the 1500 yards.

I would even go so far as to say ALL TDs are somewhat fluky. That is to say, hard to accurately predict. While there are some statistics that have a low correlation to possible TD production, it is a dicey business at best.Having said that, I think there are two trains of thought permeating this thread. One is why Cruz is not receiving the amount of love commiserate with his performance last year. The second one is whether he can duplicate or exceed prior numbers in order to prove his inclusion in the discussion. I personally don't think he has to do that to prove to me that he is a top end WR in the NFL at this point.