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Dynasty: Who is your top RB? (1 Viewer)

Who is your top dynasty RB?

  • Richardson

    Votes: 89 40.3%
  • Martin

    Votes: 53 24.0%
  • McCoy

    Votes: 13 5.9%
  • Peterson

    Votes: 39 17.6%
  • Foster

    Votes: 6 2.7%
  • Spiller

    Votes: 7 3.2%
  • Charles

    Votes: 7 3.2%
  • Rice

    Votes: 3 1.4%
  • Wilson

    Votes: 4 1.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    221

Concept Coop

Footballguy
This is the weakest dynasty crop of RBs that I remember in my years of playing. There are plenty of talented RBs out there, but a very high number of them are 26+. Not necessarily old, but not what I’ve looked for when picking in the top 5 of a start-up, most years.

The consensus seems to be a two man top tier, with Martin and Richardson. While they are likely my top two RBs, I can’t bring myself to pay the cost of acquisition. Richardson has sizable red flags with his knee and is in a poor situation. Martin is a guy I am less high on than the norm, in terms of his talent. He’s a talented back, but not a guy I’d feel great about using a top 3 startup pick on, compared to past years.

After the two top backs, there seems to be a divide between those who prefer LeSean McCoy, and those who prefer Adrian Peterson, despite his age. Both are guys who at one point in their careers I’d be happy to take at the 1.01 (and did), but today carry additional risk; Peterson’s due to age, McCoy’s due to a concussion, a talented young backup, and a lack of TD production last season.

What does the Shark Pool have to say? Is there a RB worthy of the 1.01? If so, who?

 
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squistion

Footballguy
I took Richardson with the 1.01 in a startup a couple months back, although I tried to move down a few slots but didn't get any offers that made it worthwhile to possibly not get the player I really wanted.

 

floods

Footballguy
It's funny, I voted top 5 and Richardson, because I feel like he's got the equity of the bunch, but I'd much rather take Charles or Spiller in the back half of the first. TRich has a ton of value (in a scarce position) that could be parlayed into your choice of players at other positions, which affords a lot of versatility taking him early in a startup.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
There's a big pack of proven young elite talent at WR that is more attractive to me than ANY of the RBs, considering that the younger of the proven elite guys at RB probably have roughly half the shelf life (or less) remaining. And the WR top tier is deep enough IMO that I'm trading down to the late 1st even if I can't get the value normally associated with the early 1st most years.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
There's a big pack of proven young elite talent at WR that is more attractive to me than ANY of the RBs, considering that the younger of the proven elite guys at RB probably have roughly half the shelf life (or less) remaining. And the WR top tier is deep enough IMO that I'm trading down to the late 1st even if I can't get the value normally associated with the early 1st most years.
I've been doing this too, almost without realizing it. If I was slightly more confident in Martin or Richardson, I'd be targeting them at the top like crazy. The WR pool is loaded with young talent, the RB pool isn't. Logic says get one of the 2 young studs and take what's left at WR in round 2. I just can't pull the trigger, however. I've been landing guys like Charles or Spiller and coupling them with a top WR or TE.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
I think you have to go RB since there now are too many timeshares. WR is very deep.
Viable point for sure -- the top RBs will still seperate more from their peers as opposed to the top WRs in all likelihood.If there were a handful of 22 / 23 year old RBs that I were completely sold on as NFL elite players, I'd likely take those guys 1st. But I'm not sold on anyone out of the last few classes as uber-talents. Doug Martin is the closest, and for me he's more damn good (Ray Rice style) as opposed to HOF elite (like Peterson). RB production is more tied to situation and usage than is WR production IMO, which makes it much more volatile year over year.
 
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gianmarco

Footballguy

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Sorry, not really interested in arguing semantics with you. Ranking Wilson as the top RB is really every bit as absurd as drafting him as such, but to each his own.

 

gianmarco

Footballguy
Sorry, not really interested in arguing semantics with you. Ranking Wilson as the top RB is really every bit as absurd as drafting him as such, but to each his own.
Not arguing semantics. I wouldn't take Wilson as the top RB off the board because I know I can get him later.

I'm sorry you think ranking Wilson as the top RB is absurd. We'll give it a year and see if you still feel that way.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
If we're talking dynasty startup you're going to have to jump EARLY as he's got a ton of hype behind him right now. Not sure how long you'd feel comfortable waiting / assuming you can find a trading partner to move up to grab the guy, but that's a reasonable point.

Where I have him after this year is irrelevant to the viability of ranking a late 1st round RB prospect with < 100 career touches as RB1 right this minute.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Agree completely.

(and my 2 cents FWIW): I wouldn't consider a RB with the 1.01. If I had the pick I would either trade back or take Calvin Johnson and call it a day.

And if I had my choice of any young RB right now in a nice, neat vacuum, I would be very happy to take Shady. I just think his age, relative durabilty, situation and surrounding cast, team philosophy, and all that other stuff makes him my best guess for a guy that is dynamic enough to consistently put up some great numbers for a good number of years.

I really don't understand the love for TRICH when people talk about the long haul. I think there are legit flags surrounding everything from his surroundings to his health. As short as the true "elite" years of RBs tend to be, if push came to shove, I would trade, pick up something extra and be just as happy with Foster, Spiller, Shady, Charles, and a couple of others. Of course, what do I know and I can certainly be flat wrong, but I think if you look back at this 4-5 years from now, we are most likely to see a good handful of other RBs who had truly diffrence making years while Richardson might have one but will otherwise just have very good/great years; like looking at their best 3-year windows and seeing Richardson as SJAX and a couple of these other guys like Terrell Davis or LT during their best runs.

That's not saying Richardson isn't great, valuable, and all that but for the price paid, if I go 1.01, I need the dominating, proven guy and that's why I take Calvin.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Tough call between Trent and Martin.

Trent is still only 21 and IMO has just scratched the surface of his potential in the NFL. Provided that he stays healthy, I think he'll be very good for a long time.

On the other hand, Martin already had a dominant season and is just as well-rounded. Both of these guys are 220+, great in the receiving game for PPR leagues, and can run with speed/quickness/power.

At this point it's really a coin flip between those two. Martin is a little more established and has less durability questions. Trent is a little bit younger with a little more of an intrigue/upside factor.

I'll call it even.

I think there's a big dropoff after those two, as all of the other guys have some kind of a question mark.

 

squistion

Footballguy


This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Not according to the staff here, who rank him as the #2 player overall in dynasty (and he would be #1 if you exclude Pasquino, who seems to share your views and lists him at #13).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy


This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Not according to the staff here, who rank him as the #2 player overall in dynasty (and he would be #1 if you exclude Pasquino, who seems to share your views and lists him at #13).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty
Hence calling him over-rated. And I personally think the dynasty content on this site isn't really anything to hang your hat on. There are a fairly large group of regular posters on this board who know a ton more about dynasty FF than any of the longtime staff here (yourself included). Although adding Couch Potato and SSOG is a large step in the right direction. If those two guys start cranking out regular solid dynasty content I might change my mind.
 

meyerj31

Footballguy
This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Not according to the staff here, who rank him as the #2 player overall in dynasty (and he would be #1 if you exclude Pasquino, who seems to share your views and lists him at #13).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty
I think Julio is a lot more overrated than TRich. At least with Richardson you are getting a 21-year old feature back (who is nearly a lock for 300+ touches every year). Due to the scarcity of guys who get this many touches and the necessity of starting 2+ RB in a lot of leagues, I don't understand why you are so surprised that he is ranked so highly.

Personally, I wouldn't take him before Calvin or even AP (because I think you need proven production with those top picks), but I can understand those who are doing it. It's not so unreasonable as needing to be post-worthy.

 
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JPeso

Footballguy
This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Not according to the staff here, who rank him as the #2 player overall in dynasty (and he would be #1 if you exclude Pasquino, who seems to share your views and lists him at #13).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty
I think Julio is a lot more overrated than TRich. At least with Richardson you are getting a 21-year old feature back (who is nearly a lock for 300+ touches every year).
And with Julio you are getting 300 + upside for 8 years, plus 250 + upside for a couple more. What a bum

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Anyone putting Richardson and Martin in the same tier talent-wise must have been watching two different guys than I saw last year. Night and day difference to my eyes.

And IMO Martin is even a step down from the Charles / Spiller / McCoy / DMC (2009-10 version) tier who themselves are a full tier below the dude at the top of the mountain. Martin falls with Foster, Rice, etc in the Pro Bowl or "fantasy stud in the right situation" tier but isn't regularly making me rewind the DVR because I can't believe what I just saw like the top guys do.

ETA: I forgot MJD. If he's 100% he's the best guy after Peterson IMO. Ridiculously good football player.

 
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Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Not according to the staff here, who rank him as the #2 player overall in dynasty (and he would be #1 if you exclude Pasquino, who seems to share your views and lists him at #13).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty
I think Julio is a lot more overrated than TRich. At least with Richardson you are getting a 21-year old feature back (who is nearly a lock for 300+ touches every year). Due to the scarcity of guys who get this many touches and the necessity of starting 2+ RB in a lot of leagues, I don't understand why you are so surprised that he is ranked so highly.

Personally, I wouldn't take him before Calvin or even AP (because I think you need proven production with those top picks), but I can understand those who are doing it. It's not so unreasonable as needing to be post-worthy.
Disagree completely on Julio Jones -- his production is actually remarkable considering he's been in a relatively balanced offense and competing for targets with the best TE ever and another Pro Bowler at WR. And his measurables and pedigree are beyond reproach.Richardson won't be getting 300 guaranteed touches moving forward if his putrid per-touch numbers don't improve. He'll be the power half of a RBBC in 2014 if he can't manage more than 3.6 / 7.2 this year.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Anyone putting Richardson and Martin in the same tier talent-wise must have been watching two different guys than I saw last year. Night and day difference to my eyes.And IMO Martin is even a step down from the Charles / Spiller / McCoy / DMC (2009-10 version) tier who themselves are a full tier below the dude at the top of the mountain. Martin falls with Foster, Rice, etc in the Pro Bowl or "fantasy stud in the right situation" tier but isn't regularly making me rewind the DVR because I can't believe what I just saw like the top guys do.
I think Martin is just as talented as those guys, but his talent is of a different nature. A 200 pound scat back type is going to run faster, have more explosiveness, and a higher YPC. The tradeoff is that he'll have less power and most likely won't handle the same kind of workload.

It took five years for Charles to surpass 250 carries (he had 285 last year). It took three years for Spiller to surpass 200 carries (he had 207 last year). Martin had 319 as a rookie. He had 11 runs of 20+ yards, compared to 11 for Charles and 12 for Spiller. He also had 4 catches of 20+ yards, compared to 9 for Spiller and 1 for Charles. He's not as explosive as those guys, but he has 25 pounds of mass on them despite being shorter. The ability to break tackles with strength and handle a massive workload without getting injured is part of his talent. It's just easier to overlook than 4.3 track speed.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Anyone putting Richardson and Martin in the same tier talent-wise must have been watching two different guys than I saw last year. Night and day difference to my eyes.And IMO Martin is even a step down from the Charles / Spiller / McCoy / DMC (2009-10 version) tier who themselves are a full tier below the dude at the top of the mountain. Martin falls with Foster, Rice, etc in the Pro Bowl or "fantasy stud in the right situation" tier but isn't regularly making me rewind the DVR because I can't believe what I just saw like the top guys do.
I think Martin is just as talented as those guys, but his talent is of a different nature. A 200 pound scat back type is going to run faster, have more explosiveness, and a higher YPC. The tradeoff is that he'll have less power and most likely won't handle the same kind of workload. It took five years for Charles to surpass 250 carries (he had 285 last year). It took three years for Spiller to surpass 200 carries (he had 207 last year). Martin had 319 as a rookie. He had 11 runs of 20+ yards, compared to 11 for Charles and 12 for Spiller. He also had 4 catches of 20+ yards, compared to 9 for Spiller and 1 for Charles. He's not as explosive as those guys, but he has 25 pounds of mass on them despite being shorter. The ability to break tackles with strength and handle a massive workload without getting injured is part of his talent. It's just easier to overlook than 4.3 track speed.
I would like to see some concrete info to back up your theories on BMI vs workload and durability as opposed to the same old anecdotal evidence.I agree that power / ability to break tackles is part of the talent equation, obviously. But number of carries and TDs are more based on stuff outside the individual player (coach, system, competition or lack thereof, ability of the line to generate push at the goal-line). And injuries are totally random for the most part IMO.You also have completely sidestepped the repeated questions on Richardson's per touch metrics. I probably shouldn't be surprised at this point...
 

Mene

Footballguy
Anyone putting Richardson and Martin in the same tier talent-wise must have been watching two different guys than I saw last year. Night and day difference to my eyes.And IMO Martin is even a step down from the Charles / Spiller / McCoy / DMC (2009-10 version) tier who themselves are a full tier below the dude at the top of the mountain. Martin falls with Foster, Rice, etc in the Pro Bowl or "fantasy stud in the right situation" tier but isn't regularly making me rewind the DVR because I can't believe what I just saw like the top guys do.
I just don't get this thinking. I watched Martin 5 times last year, owned him in my primary keeper league, and would call TB my second favorite team, behind my hometown Lions. I'm at a loss for what more this guy could do. He was supposed to be too slow, then managed to have 9 30+ yard plays last year (30 may be an arbitrary number, but it certainly captures my point). He showed excellent Balance, Vision, Strength, unexpected speed, and durability, as he rarely came off the field. He did all this with a team missing it's top 2 guards, that was in transition with a completely new staff, offense, and a wildly inconsistent QB. What exactly doesn't he do? You can refer to flash players like Charles, McCoy, Spiller as more exciting, or having more upside... but in the end isn't this all about production? Martin's situation was less than ideal, and he excelled. In doing so, I think he showed his toolbox has quite a bit more in it than most experts anticipated. I cannot understand how Martin isn't a top 5 overall Dynasty play, and I for one, wouldn't trade him for anyone 1 for 1.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
To clarify:

Martin is my dynasty RB1 also. He offers the best combination of youth, talent, track record, and situation. I'd take a few WRs ahead of him in PPR due to positional shelf life, but he's the top RB.

In NFL terms I think that a small handful of

guys are better players, but are a few years older / in less ideal situations / etc. Saying Adrian Peterson and a few other RBs are more talented than Doug Martin isn't a slam on Martin at all.

 

EBF

Footballguy
You also have completely sidestepped the repeated questions on Richardson's per touch metrics. I probably shouldn't be surprised at this point...
I don't find the "debate" all that compelling. Arguing Richardson with you is like arguing evolution with an Evangelical pastor. Waste of time.

His rookie YPC was a disappointment. There are valid reasons for that, most notably the fact that he played nine games with broken ribs. His pain was so severe that he couldn't even rest on his side in bed, yet somehow he's supposed to dominate at RB as a rookie on a bad team? :no:

There is a reason why evaluators and people who know football were ga-ga over Richardson last year. He brings a great package of skills to the position and will be a rock RB1 in FF lineups for the next 6-10 years if his health permits.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Kind of like arguing McFadden, Stewart, Forte, etc with you? LOL.

Difference is if Richardson comes out and runs for 4.5 a clip this year I'll admit I was dead wrong. You'll still be saying McFadden can't play and you knew it all along.

How is Richardson's rookie year any different from your favorite whipping boy Matt Forte's? Aside from the magical rib injury that evidently made him slower and less elusive while still allowing him to run with as much power as any RB in the NFL.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Kind of like arguing McFadden, Stewart, Forte, etc with you? LOL.

Difference is if Richardson comes out and runs for 4.5 a clip this year I'll admit I was dead wrong. You'll still be saying McFadden can't play and you knew it all along.

How is Richardson's rookie year any different from your favorite whipping boy Matt Forte's? Aside from the magical rib injury that evidently made him slower and less elusive while still allowing him to run with as much power as any RB in the NFL.
If Forte is a worst case scenario for Richardson's career then that's pretty damn good.

The bigger point is that a player's rookie year isn't always a perfect indicator of his future outlook.

Look at these six rookie seasons:

GROUP A

278 carries, 1183 yards, 4.3 YPC

268 carries, 1282 yards, 4.8 YPC

241 carries, 1133 yards, 4.7 YPC

GROUP B

339 carries, 1236 yards, 3.6 YPC

74 carries, 283 yards, 3.8 YPC

253 carries, 884 yards, 3.5 YPC

Can you guess who those numbers belong to?

Group A: Anthony Thomas, Steve Slaton, Kevin Jones

Group B: LaDainian Tomlinson, CJ Spiller, Ricky Williams

The most foolish part of your attitude towards Richardson is the willingness to totally ignore all the draft hype and plaudits solely on the basis of a mildly disappointing rookie year in which he played the majority of the season with an injury that might have sidelined backs with inferior toughness.

This is not to say that every rookie RB who has modest production off the bat is going to turn into a superstar, but in the case of Tomlinson, Spiller, and Ricky the fact that they were recognized as top 10 draft picks with special talents gave good reason to believe that their rookie numbers weren't necessarily a true reflection of their ability.

That's how I feel about Richardson. Most people acknowledge him as a very rare talent. One modest rookie year doesn't erase that.

History repeats itself in FF. Same story. Different year.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Yeah, and I can rattle off a ton of guys taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft at RB who were outright busts. Draft position matters a ton for prospect analysis, I agree -- until we have a substantial sample size of actual NFL work to analyze, at which point it's value really decreases. I'd say that ignoring actual on field results due to glowing scouting reports from more than a year ago is far more foolish than trusting my own eyes on Richardson's 250+ NFL carries -- which told me he's pretty average.

When "the next Adrian Peterson" is handed the job as a rookie and runs for <1000 at 3.6 YPC looking worse than Peyton Hillis did in the same role it's more than just mildly disappointing. It's downright awful.

 

squistion

Footballguy
This thread is certainly confirming Trent Richardson as the most over-rated player in dynasty FF right now. A young average starting RB is still just an average RB people. And even if he were indeed Adrian Peterson, good RBs in great situations >>>>> great RB on the worst team in football.
Not according to the staff here, who rank him as the #2 player overall in dynasty (and he would be #1 if you exclude Pasquino, who seems to share your views and lists him at #13).

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty
I think Julio is a lot more overrated than TRich. At least with Richardson you are getting a 21-year old feature back (who is nearly a lock for 300+ touches every year). Due to the scarcity of guys who get this many touches and the necessity of starting 2+ RB in a lot of leagues, I don't understand why you are so surprised that he is ranked so highly.

Personally, I wouldn't take him before Calvin or even AP (because I think you need proven production with those top picks), but I can understand those who are doing it. It's not so unreasonable as needing to be post-worthy.
What did I say to indicate that I was surprised at his high ranking? I was pointing to the staff consensus ranking to show that the "experts" here don't think he is overrated (which I agree with and noted earlier that I took him at 1.01 in a startup).

 

Borden

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys.

T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order.

If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.

 
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Shawnky

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
In the 3 dynasty leagues i was in last year only 1 team that had AP won the league. You're logic is way off.
 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
I feel the same way ... in my recent dynasty draft AP went 10th overall. I could not believe it.

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
In the 3 dynasty leagues i was in last year only 1 team that had AP won the league. You're logic is way off.
Your sample size of 3 leagues isn't much better than his sample logic of one league.

 

Borden

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
In the 3 dynasty leagues i was in last year only 1 team that had AP won the league. You're logic is way off.
Your sample size of 3 leagues isn't much better than his sample logic of one league.
I think Shawnky was joking.

 

Shawnky

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
In the 3 dynasty leagues i was in last year only 1 team that had AP won the league. You're logic is way off.
Your sample size of 3 leagues isn't much better than his sample logic of one league.
Ok. So you're saying drafting AP guarantees you winning your league without knowing the rest of your team. That's what I'm getting here. At least my comment has substance.
 

Borden

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys.

T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order.

If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
I feel the same way ... in my recent dynasty draft AP went 10th overall. I could not believe it.
To you right?

 

Borden

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
In the 3 dynasty leagues i was in last year only 1 team that had AP won the league. You're logic is way off.
Your sample size of 3 leagues isn't much better than his sample logic of one league.
Ok. So you're saying drafting AP guarantees you winning your league without knowing the rest of your team. That's what I'm getting here. At least my comment has substance.
That was a very light hearted post by me to illustrate the over value of youth in dynasty start ups.
 
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Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
I completely agree with you on the "youth is over-rated" point, but there are other reasons to not take Peterson at 1.01 -- he doesn't catch close to as many passes as the other top stud RBs (which is a big deal in PPR) and the Vikes aren't in the redzone nearly as much as Houston, Baltimore, etc. As good as Peterson is, I think that last year was actually his first fantasy RB1 finish. And as good as he is, you can't count on 2000 rushing yards from anyone...
 

MAC_32

Footballguy
In a start-up I am taking Richardson 1st, but in an already established league if my roster allows for it I'll take AD instead. I like AD more this year, but expect to like Richardson more next year. If I have a young team built to win now too, I'd rather have AD.

 

B-Deep

Footballguy
I'd take peterson first, obviously

youth and potential is often over valued in dynsaty drafts, if you are willing to draft the best players you can often build a superstar team and kill other teams the first 2 seasons while their potential may or may not come around

 

bengalbuck

Footballguy
I was in a recent startup and was very happy to take Megatron at 1.03. While he is my top dynasty guy, it did make team construction really difficult though as I watched RBs fly off the board. In hindsight, I think it is quite possible I could have assembled a stronger roster by going RB-RB to start.

It was a 3rd round reversal setup and after taking a RB at 2.10, there was very, very little left at RB at 3.10. My choices were to roll the dice on a rookie as my RB2 or take a veteran like Reggie Bush or SJax who are only short term solutions. The WR position on the other hand still had some strong options with guys like Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, etc.

I ended up taking Gio Bernard over Nicks and company, which leads to the question: Would you rather have Calvin Johnson (or AJ Green) and a guy like Bernard or grab someone like McCoy/Peterson and then a top WR like Nicks?

WR is so deep right now and RB so shallow that taking a RB in the 1st makes a ton of sense.

 

Borden

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
I completely agree with you on the "youth is over-rated" point, but there are other reasons to not take Peterson at 1.01 -- he doesn't catch close to as many passes as the other top stud RBs (which is a big deal in PPR) and the Vikes aren't in the redzone nearly as much as Houston, Baltimore, etc. As good as Peterson is, I think that last year was actually his first fantasy RB1 finish. And as good as he is, you can't count on 2000 rushing yards from anyone...
You can't expect him to put 2000 but honestly who would say has the best chance to do it? It's still AP.

I think that the case you're making against AP doesn't hold up. I could pick apart every player and tell you why you shouldn't draft them but in the end the player with high chance of being the best fantasy player is still AP.

Think about it like this.

Chance of being the number #1 fantasy point producer:

AP 10%

Foster 7%

Martin 5%

Calvin 3%

Morris 1%

Rice 1%

Lynch 1%

McCoy 1%

Richardson 1%

Clearly these are just random numbers but how ever you shake them out AP will be at the top. You could say that AP won't be the highest producer and you would have the probability to back you up (AP versus the league) but there isn't a single player with a higher probability.

 

B-Deep

Footballguy
Wait

someone really voted wilson??

well then I demand Joesph Randle be added to the list so i can cast a completely absurd vote for him

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
Foster's got a decent chance in PPR IMO -- I wouldn't take him ahead of AP in dynasty but PPR redraft it's a tough call IMO...

 

Shutout

Footballguy
I would love to be in a dynasty league you guys. T-Rich, Martin, Spiller, a couple WRs (AJ, Calvin)? That would leave AP 6, Foster 7, McCoy 8, Lynch 9, Charles 10, Rice 11, Morris 12, or whatever variation of order. If you let AP fall to 6, that guy should win the opening year of the dynasty. You guys are giving way too much weight to how old a player is.
I completely agree with you on the "youth is over-rated" point, but there are other reasons to not take Peterson at 1.01 -- he doesn't catch close to as many passes as the other top stud RBs (which is a big deal in PPR) and the Vikes aren't in the redzone nearly as much as Houston, Baltimore, etc. As good as Peterson is, I think that last year was actually his first fantasy RB1 finish. And as good as he is, you can't count on 2000 rushing yards from anyone...
You can't expect him to put 2000 but honestly who would say has the best chance to do it? It's still AP. I think that the case you're making against AP doesn't hold up. I could pick apart every player and tell you why you shouldn't draft them but in the end the player with high chance of being the best fantasy player is still AP. Think about it like this.Chance of being the number #1 fantasy point producer: AP 10%Foster 7%Martin 5%Calvin 3%Morris 1%Rice 1%Lynch 1%McCoy 1%Richardson 1% Clearly these are just random numbers but how ever you shake them out AP will be at the top. You could say that AP won't be the highest producer and you would have the probability to back you up (AP versus the league) but there isn't a single player with a higher probability.
You left out a lot of QBS there if your real point is to discuss #1 fantasy point producer. That's what seems so sideways in discussions like these: everyone is always talking up the importance of age but they ignore the two most important things; longevity and production. In the end, THE thing that matters is scoring more points and the next biggest thing that matters in dynasty is scoring lots of points for a long period of time. That is why, although I know many will hitch me to the stake on this, you NEVER take a RB #1 overall in a dynasty. All this talk about Peterson and Martin and Richardson....these guys have the relative life-span of a fruit fly. In three years, when that Peterson owner is looking for another RB, the Calvin and Julio and AJ owners will still be dominating, owning that matchup every week and using those valuable resources they saved (draft picks) that the did NOT have to put into getting another RB, using them on building more dynasty depth...never reaching, just stockpiling. In those years that their RB takes the nasty long-term injury (they all do sooner or later, some more than others), the odds tell you that the elite qb and wr owners will have to worry about the less often. And in ten (10) years from now, when those RB owners are diving into generation 3-4 of their RBs and draft pick resources, that other guy will STILL have AJ and Julio and luck, etc. The dominant RB is a very valuable commodity but it is a luxury item, not a necessity. You build the foundation of your team right with a couple of key positions that you can put in the lineup and then not worry about for a decade and you are going to have a lot more success over the long run because you A-have the elite resource in your lineup, B-save future resources NOT replacing high wear and tear parts, and C-avoid the propensity for the highest injury risk/most interchangeable spot.
 

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