Dynasty WR Landscape Really Changing This Year (1 Viewer)

[dmac37]

Between a star studded rookie class and veteran WR's in flux, dynasty rankings are really changing. I think currently there is a huge group bunched together in the WR1 - WR3 ranked WR's that are similar in value depending on each persons rankings. I think this is a great time to evaluate the market and make value moves for WR's, who are you looking to buy or sell within this group?

My 2 buys in this group are A Rob and Diontae Johnson, sells are OBJ and Evans.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think it changes every year but this year is a unique situation itself. Scoring is way up and offensive production is way up so far this year.

Still waiting for PFR to update the last 4 games but right now teams are averaging 25.4 points per game (this was at 27 or so after 4 weeks, its gone down a bit) right now. For the previous 3 seasons this average has been 22.4 now as more games are played I would expect this average to continue to go down towards the average, but right now all teams are scoring 3 more points than average.

A lot of the extra yardage is coming from the passing game so WR as a whole are doing more than usual. Or maybe this becomes the new normal as these numbers do seem to keep going up a bit over time.

One of the main contributors to offensive improvement has been the lack of offensive penalties compared to previous seasons..

The rookie WR draft class of 2020 does seem to be living up to the hype. I don't remember this many rookie WR being relevant right away since 2014 and even that great group took a bit of time to get going like OBJ. I will wait for more data but it should be interesting to compare the 2020 group to the 2014 group at the end of the year.

Here is the top 50 WR by total points and PPG in the second column

1.    Ridley, Calvin ATL WR    121.00    20.167    
2.    Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR    119.10    19.850    
3.    Thielen, Adam MIN WR    119.00    19.833    
4.    Diggs, Stefon BUF WR    115.50    19.250    
5.    Cooper, Amari DAL WR    110.10    18.350    
6.    Anderson, Robby CAR WR    104.90    17.483    
7.    Jefferson, Justin MIN WR    101.70    16.950
8.    Metcalf, DK SEA WR    101.60    20.320    
9.    Robinson, Allen CHI WR    99.30    16.550    
10.    Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR    99.00    16.500    
11.    Hill, Tyreek KCC WR    98.80    16.467    
12.    Fuller, Will HOU WR    97.50    16.250    
13.    Woods, Robert LAR WR    91.50    15.250    
14.    McLaurin, Terry WAS WR    91.00    15.167    
15.    Claypool, Chase PIT WR    88.60    17.720    
16.    Lockett, Tyler SEA WR    88.20    17.640    
17.    Boyd, Tyler CIN WR    87.50    14.583    
18.    Evans, Mike TBB WR    87.10    14.517    
19.    Beckham, Odell CLE WR    86.82    14.470    
20.    Slayton, Darius NYG WR    83.30    13.883    
21.    Kupp, Cooper LAR WR    82.10    13.683    
22.    Allen, Keenan LAC WR    81.60    16.320    
23.    Cole, Keelan JAC WR    81.40    13.567    
24.    Moore, D.J. CAR WR    80.40    13.400    
25.    Crowder, Jamison NYJ WR    79.30    19.825    
26.    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    77.40    12.900    
27.    Beasley, Cole BUF WR    75.80    12.633    
28.    Cooks, Brandin HOU WR    75.70    12.617    
29.    Jones, Julio ATL WR    70.00    17.500    
30.    Brown, Marquise BAL WR    69.70    11.617    
31.    Chark, D.J. JAC WR    69.50    13.900    
32.    Higgins, Tee CIN WR    69.40    11.567    
33.    Sanders, Emmanuel NOS WR    68.40    13.680    
34.    Shenault, Laviska JAC WR    65.40    10.900    
35.    Fulgham, Travis PHI WR    64.40    21.467                   
36.    Landry, Jarvis CLE WR    63.38    10.563    
37.    Patrick, Tim DEN WR    63.00    12.600    
38.    Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR    62.40    12.480
39.    Gallup, Michael DAL WR    62.10    10.350    
40.    Cobb, Randall HOU WR    61.70    10.283    
41.    Adams, Davante GBP WR    60.30    20.100    
42.    Gage, Russell ATL WR    59.70    9.950    
43.    Ward, Greg PHI WR    56.50    9.417    
44.    Watkins, Sammy KCC WR    55.50    11.100    
45.    Aiyuk, Brandon SFO WR    55.40    11.080         
46.    Kirk, Christian ARI WR    55.30    11.060    
47.    Williams, Preston MIA WR    55.30    9.217
48.    Edelman, Julian NEP WR    53.92    10.784    
49.    Humphries, Adam TEN WR    53.00    13.250    
50.    Brown, A.J. TEN WR    52.70    17.567

There are a lot of 2nd and 3rd year players on this list as well so there is somewhat of a changing of the guard as you say (and this continues) as there are only a handful of guys producing at a high level who are not from this younger crowd.

As far as buy low sell high I think you want to buy rookies who haven't performed yet but you believe in for example for me Jalen Reagor. It is the worst possible time to buy a rookie when they are performing well like Jefferson. Maybe Aikuk can still be had for a reasonable price. Amari Cooper is a sell because I think Lamb ends up being more targeted than him in time. It depends on what you can get for him or other older guys like Thielen right now. Usually folks wont pay what they are worth once they get older, and for good reason. I end up keeping or even buying these players because no one will give me enough for them.

 

[Truebluey]

Interesting topic.

Obviously there are a few rookies here who have suddenly become hot commodities, Claypool and Jefferson being the most surprising for the suddeness of their ascensions.

Others who are very interesting to think about long-term who have made a great case for themselves are:

Robby Anderson - did even his biggest supporters see this coming?

Will Fuller - the injury knock kept him downranked, but he also looks more complete this year

Darius Slayton - there were a few Slayton truthers, but he has been more consistent than probably expected

Keelan Cole - he has flashed before and then faded, so hard to know what to make of this 2020 re-emergence, but he looks good to the eye test

Also for Dynasty, there are a few huge names not in the Top 50 at the moment due to injury/bye/covid reasons who I expect to be here by season's end, such as 

Chris Godwin

Kenny Golladay

Mike Williams

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is the top 50 by PPG

1.    Fulgham, Travis PHI WR    64.40    21.467               
2.    Metcalf, DK SEA WR    101.60    20.320    
3.    Ridley, Calvin ATL WR    121.00    20.167    
4.    Adams, Davante GBP WR    60.30    20.100    
5.    Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR    119.10    19.850    
6.    Thielen, Adam MIN WR    119.00    19.833    
7.    Crowder, Jamison NYJ WR    79.30    19.825    
8.    Diggs, Stefon BUF WR    115.50    19.250    
9.    Cooper, Amari DAL WR    110.10    18.350    
10.    Claypool, Chase PIT WR    88.60    17.720    
11.    Lockett, Tyler SEA WR    88.20    17.640    
12.    Brown, A.J. TEN WR    52.70    17.500
13.    Jones, Julio ATL WR    70.00    17.500    
14.    Anderson, Robby CAR WR    104.90    17.483    
15.    Lazard, Allen GBP WR    52.10    17.367    
16.    Jefferson, Justin MIN WR    101.70    16.950    
17.    Robinson, Allen CHI WR    99.30    16.550    
18.    Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR    99.00    16.500    
19.    Hill, Tyreek KCC WR    98.80    16.467    
20.    Allen, Keenan LAC WR    81.60    16.320    
21.    Fuller, Will HOU WR    97.50    16.250    
22.    Golladay, Kenny DET WR    48.40    16.133              1
23.    Woods, Robert LAR WR    91.50    15.250    
24.    McLaurin, Terry WAS WR    91.00    15.167    
25.    Boyd, Tyler CIN WR    87.50    14.583    
26.    Evans, Mike TBB WR    87.10    14.517    
27.    Beckham, Odell CLE WR    86.82    14.470    
28.    Chark, D.J. JAC WR    69.50    13.900    
29.    Slayton, Darius NYG WR    83.30    13.883    
30.    Davis, Corey TEN WR    41.60    13.867    
31.    Godwin, Chris TBB WR    41.10    13.700    
32.    Kupp, Cooper LAR WR    82.10    13.683    
33.    Sanders, Emmanuel NOS WR    68.40    13.680    
34.    Cole, Keelan JAC WR    81.40    13.567    
35.    Moore, D.J. CAR WR    80.40    13.400    
36.    Humphries, Adam TEN WR    53.00    13.250    
37.    Parker, DeVante MIA WR    77.40    12.900    
38.    Beasley, Cole BUF WR    75.80    12.633    
39.    Cooks, Brandin HOU WR    75.70    12.617    
40.    Patrick, Tim DEN WR    63.00    12.600    
41.    Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR    62.40    12.480    
42.    Brown, Marquise BAL WR    69.70    11.617    
43.    Higgins, Tee CIN WR    69.40    11.567    
44.    Williams, Mike LAC WR    44.90    11.225    
45.    Watkins, Sammy KCC WR    55.50    11.100    
46.    Aiyuk, Brandon SFO WR    55.40    11.080     
47.    Kirk, Christian ARI WR    55.30    11.060    
48.    Shenault, Laviska JAC WR    65.40    10.900    
49.    Edelman, Julian NEP WR    53.92    10.784    
50.    Landry, Jarvis CLE WR    63.38    10.563

 

[ZWK]

Near the top we have Metcalf, Ridley, Lamb, McLaurin, Jefferson, and Claypool moving up, off to a huge start. They're joining an already strong group of MT, Tyreek, Davante, Hopkins, Godwin, Cooper, Moore, Evans, AJ Brown, and JuJu. Also Diggs. I think that's my top 17, in some order.

Robby Anderson breaking into the Lockett/Woods tier.

Pretty good start from a bunch of the other rookies: Ruggs, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Higgins, Shenault.

McLaurin and Anderson might be the top buys, although we're a couple weeks past the best buying window.

 

[Boston]

Near the top we have Metcalf, Ridley, Lamb, McLaurin, Jefferson, and Claypool moving up, off to a huge start. They're joining an already strong group of MT, Tyreek, Davante, Hopkins, Godwin, Cooper, Moore, Evans, AJ Brown, and JuJu. Also Diggs. I think that's my top 17, in some order.

Robby Anderson breaking into the Lockett/Woods tier.

Pretty good start from a bunch of the other rookies: Ruggs, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Higgins, Shenault.

McLaurin and Anderson might be the top buys, although we're a couple weeks past the best buying window.

What are your thoughts on the WFT QB situation going forward with regard to McLaurin?

 

[Ilov80s]

What are your thoughts on the WFT QB situation going forward with regard to McLaurin?

Odds are it almost has nowhere to go but up 

 

[Boston]

Odds are it almost has nowhere to go but up 

You would think...but I thought that this year as well.

 

[Ilov80s]

You would think...but I thought that this year as well.

Yeah no guarantee it gets better but I don’t think the QB they draft/sign next year can be worse than the combo of Haskins/Allen. Those guys are barely backup NFL QBs.

 

[zamboni]

As far as buy low sell high I think you want to buy rookies who haven't performed yet but you believe in for example for me Jalen Reagor. 

Mims is another if you can look past the Jets' dumpster fire this year and if the team wins the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

 

[ffmail4me]

Yeah no guarantee it gets better but I don’t think the QB they draft/sign next year can be worse than the combo of Haskins/Allen. Those guys are barely backup NFL QBs.

I am 100% sure Rivera will draft at least 5 or 6 (if not more) offensive players in next year's draft, likely a QB, TE, WR (or two) and several offensive lineman. McLaurin truly has nowhere to go but up IMO

 

[Fat Nick]

Odds are it almost has nowhere to go but up 

Agree.  McLaurin is the ONLY bright spot on the offensive side of the ball - and the sad thing is, I think that's in-line with expectations going into the year.  At least from me.  They'll find a way to get him involved a lot.  He's got game changing speed, so even if it's throwing 5+ quick slants a game, they'll get him the ball.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am 100% sure Rivera will draft at least 5 or 6 (if not more) offensive players in next year's draft, likely a QB, TE, WR (or two) and several offensive lineman. McLaurin truly has nowhere to go but up IMO

True though the lack of stability it still a slight concern. If they draft several pass catchers, McLaurin could find himself losing target share. Still, I think he will rise over the next 2 years.

 

[dmac37]

I think now is the time to try and stake your claim and trade for WR's you believe in. With rankings all over the place now, it will be tough to know where other owners value players so you may be able to get your targets at a decent price point now.

I don't ever recall a time that many FF WR 3's (25-36 range) have a value similar to many FF WR 1's, pending on individual rankings.

 

[Biabreakable]

Mims is another if you can look past the Jets' dumpster fire this year and if the team wins the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

Yeah I like Mims. Good idea.

 

[TakiToki]

I'm a heavy buyer on Aiyuk, long-term. Ride out the ground-and-pound years and hopefully reap the rewards if SF comes up with a talented passer down the road.

 

[wgoldsph]

With all the talk of Aiyuk everyone is missing the guy who's already there and has already done it - Deebo.  His first game was basically a warm up, the next he had 8 targets where most of them were nowhere near him due to a hurt qb, and this last week was a first drive that was scripted entirely for him capped off with a td.  He's finally healthy and the sf offense clicks with him in it.  He deserves consideration in the rising tide of ascending dynasty wrs.

 

[Biabreakable]

With all the talk of Aiyuk everyone is missing the guy who's already there and has already done it - Deebo.  His first game was basically a warm up, the next he had 8 targets where most of them were nowhere near him due to a hurt qb, and this last week was a first drive that was scripted entirely for him capped off with a td.  He's finally healthy and the sf offense clicks with him in it.  He deserves consideration in the rising tide of ascending dynasty wrs.

Discussed this a bit in he Samuel thread.

I am a bigger fan of Samuel than I am Aiyuk although I think they are very similar players. I think Samuel is stronger and grittier. Aiyuk I think has better deep ball ability. But they are very close to the same player.

I use objective logic to determine that Aiyuk > Samuel. Aiyuk was a higher draft pick that Samuel. While I think it is very close odds are Aiyuk ends up having a better career.

Samuel is more fun to watch.

 

[Iceman03]

Imagine saying a guy who is apart of the only group in the NFL I’ve mapped with 5 guys over a 15% target share and believing someone can be a WR1 out of that mess.  Diontae Johnson is barely a hold at this point. Unathletic, below average air yards, injury prone... get over it. Chase Claypool is the guy with upside in that offense.