[DYNASTY] WR Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Kitrick Taylor]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;Too low list:Steve SmithTerrell OwensDonald DriverDeion BranchDJ HackettDemetrius WilliamsToo HighTed GinnRoddy WhiteSantonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season. 3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3. 5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career. I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.Tom BradyPeyton ManningAntonio GatesSteve SmithRandy Moss

 

[EBF]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;Too low list:Steve SmithTerrell OwensDonald DriverDeion BranchDJ HackettDemetrius WilliamsToo HighTed GinnRoddy WhiteSantonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season. 3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3. 5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career. I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.Tom BradyPeyton ManningAntonio GatesSteve SmithRandy Moss

Who do you think he deserves to be ahead of? IMO he has no business going before Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald. You can make a strong case for Colston over Smith since Colston is singificantly younger and has been a consistent WR1 type producer for two straight years. I guess you can make a case for Smith over Edwards, AJ, and Calvin. But I think Edwards and Johnson have just as much talent as Smith (if not more) and both of those guys are in much better situations (Schaub and DA/Quinn vs. ?). Ranking Calvin over Smith might be a reach. Realistically though, I wouldn't even consider trading any of the other WRs in my top 10 for Steve Smith. Not for a minute.

 

[LILB811]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;Too low list:Steve SmithTerrell OwensDonald DriverDeion BranchDJ HackettDemetrius WilliamsToo HighTed GinnRoddy WhiteSantonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season. 3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3. 5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career. I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.Tom BradyPeyton ManningAntonio GatesSteve SmithRandy Moss

Who do you think he deserves to be ahead of? IMO he has no business going before Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald. You can make a strong case for Colston over Smith since Colston is singificantly younger and has been a consistent WR1 type producer for two straight years. I guess you can make a case for Smith over Edwards, AJ, and Calvin. But I think Edwards and Johnson have just as much talent as Smith (if not more) and both of those guys are in much better situations (Schaub and DA/Quinn vs. ?). Ranking Calvin over Smith might be a reach. Realistically though, I wouldn't even consider trading any of the other WRs in my top 10 for Steve Smith. Not for a minute.

I would sub Edwards and AJ into your “no business” list instead of Chad and Anquan. Chad has scored in exactly 4 games each of the last two seasons with 0 td’s between weeks 14-16 in those years. Overall numbers are always there but the consistency is not. I’m not saying I’d put Smith ahead of Chad, but they’re on about the same level to me.With Anquan, again I’m not saying I’d definitely put Smith ahead of him, but I think Smith has just as good a chance of having a huge season as Boldin. Smith is almost a year and a half older, so that’s not too much of a factor at their ages.At this point I’d probably rank Colston ahead of Smith based strictly on age. I was expecting a dropoff from Colston this year, but I think after seeing the 2nd half he turned in that he is ready to be a top flight receiver for years to come. I’d probably rank Calvin lower than Smith, but just personal preference. I think Smith in the 7-10 range is about right, depending on how you feel about him. His situation stinks, and if Carolina drafts a franchise QB that could cause his production to dip a little, but he’s getting all the targets, all the DB attention, and still puts up numbers.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;Too low list:Steve SmithTerrell OwensDonald DriverDeion BranchDJ HackettDemetrius WilliamsToo HighTed GinnRoddy WhiteSantonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season. 3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3. 5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career. I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.Tom BradyPeyton ManningAntonio GatesSteve SmithRandy Moss

Who do you think he deserves to be ahead of? IMO he has no business going before Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald. You can make a strong case for Colston over Smith since Colston is singificantly younger and has been a consistent WR1 type producer for two straight years. I guess you can make a case for Smith over Edwards, AJ, and Calvin. But I think Edwards and Johnson have just as much talent as Smith (if not more) and both of those guys are in much better situations (Schaub and DA/Quinn vs. ?). Ranking Calvin over Smith might be a reach. Realistically though, I wouldn't even consider trading any of the other WRs in my top 10 for Steve Smith. Not for a minute.

I would sub Edwards and AJ into your "no business" list instead of Chad and Anquan. Chad has scored in exactly 4 games each of the last two seasons with 0 td's between weeks 14-16 in those years. Overall numbers are always there but the consistency is not. I'm not saying I'd put Smith ahead of Chad, but they're on about the same level to me.With Anquan, again I'm not saying I'd definitely put Smith ahead of him, but I think Smith has just as good a chance of having a huge season as Boldin. Smith is almost a year and a half older, so that's not too much of a factor at their ages.At this point I'd probably rank Colston ahead of Smith based strictly on age. I was expecting a dropoff from Colston this year, but I think after seeing the 2nd half he turned in that he is ready to be a top flight receiver for years to come. I'd probably rank Calvin lower than Smith, but just personal preference. I think Smith in the 7-10 range is about right, depending on how you feel about him. His situation stinks, and if Carolina drafts a franchise QB that could cause his production to dip a little, but he's getting all the targets, all the DB attention, and still puts up numbers.

Chase Stuart put together a pretty good thread as to why Steve Smith should be the #1 rated dynasty WR prior to this season. I honestly don't think that losing his QB this year did anything to change that fact. There are some that are younger sure. But at 28, Smith still is a good bet for 5 or more years of top production. Projecting further than that is dicey at best with any non-QB. Smith was the #1 in 2005, #7 in 14 games of 2006 (so even if you started a #4 type WR for those other two games, you still got top 5 production.) Then he lost his QB this year. He finished 19th. I would be shocked if the Panthers didn't improve upon their backup QB situation this off season. What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner? Seriously. Its amazing how quickly it is forgotten how dominating this guy can be. Buy low.EBF- I think you do a great job with these lists, and didn't mean it as an attack on you. Obviously we just have differing opinions on some players.

 

[EBF]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;Too low list:Steve SmithTerrell OwensDonald DriverDeion BranchDJ HackettDemetrius WilliamsToo HighTed GinnRoddy WhiteSantonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season. 3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3. 5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career. I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.Tom BradyPeyton ManningAntonio GatesSteve SmithRandy Moss

Who do you think he deserves to be ahead of? IMO he has no business going before Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald. You can make a strong case for Colston over Smith since Colston is singificantly younger and has been a consistent WR1 type producer for two straight years. I guess you can make a case for Smith over Edwards, AJ, and Calvin. But I think Edwards and Johnson have just as much talent as Smith (if not more) and both of those guys are in much better situations (Schaub and DA/Quinn vs. ?). Ranking Calvin over Smith might be a reach. Realistically though, I wouldn't even consider trading any of the other WRs in my top 10 for Steve Smith. Not for a minute.

I would sub Edwards and AJ into your "no business" list instead of Chad and Anquan. Chad has scored in exactly 4 games each of the last two seasons with 0 td's between weeks 14-16 in those years. Overall numbers are always there but the consistency is not. I'm not saying I'd put Smith ahead of Chad, but they're on about the same level to me.With Anquan, again I'm not saying I'd definitely put Smith ahead of him, but I think Smith has just as good a chance of having a huge season as Boldin. Smith is almost a year and a half older, so that's not too much of a factor at their ages.At this point I'd probably rank Colston ahead of Smith based strictly on age. I was expecting a dropoff from Colston this year, but I think after seeing the 2nd half he turned in that he is ready to be a top flight receiver for years to come. I'd probably rank Calvin lower than Smith, but just personal preference. I think Smith in the 7-10 range is about right, depending on how you feel about him. His situation stinks, and if Carolina drafts a franchise QB that could cause his production to dip a little, but he's getting all the targets, all the DB attention, and still puts up numbers.

Chase Stuart put together a pretty good thread as to why Steve Smith should be the #1 rated dynasty WR prior to this season. I honestly don't think that losing his QB this year did anything to change that fact. There are some that are younger sure. But at 28, Smith still is a good bet for 5 or more years of top production. Projecting further than that is dicey at best with any non-QB. Smith was the #1 in 2005, #7 in 14 games of 2006 (so even if you started a #4 type WR for those other two games, you still got top 5 production.) Then he lost his QB this year. He finished 19th. I would be shocked if the Panthers didn't improve upon their backup QB situation this off season. What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner? Seriously. Its amazing how quickly it is forgotten how dominating this guy can be. Buy low.EBF- I think you do a great job with these lists, and didn't mean it as an attack on you. Obviously we just have differing opinions on some players.

This is what I don't understand. Why is Steve Smith allowed to suck? He had plenty of targets this past season and still had a weak year. Roddy #######' White had 200 more receiving yards than Smith on fewer targets with a revolving door of stud QBs like Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich. If Sharod can do it, then why not Smith? Why does he get a pass for his weak season when other players have succeeded in similar situations?

What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner?

Boldin had almost 1,400 yard with Jeff Blake under center. He puts up numbers regardless of who's throwing him the ball. That's what an elite WR is supposed to do. Steve Smith didn't do it last year. I don't care who was throwing him the ball. He didn't get the job done and other guys did. IMO there's no reason to rank him ahead of those guys right now. Does he have the potential to bounce back? Sure. Maybe he'll be a stud WR again next season. But that doesn't mean he deserves to be ranked ahead of guys like Chad, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Colston. Where I have him is fair. It's not reasonable to rank him any higher than WR7-8.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Where you have him is fair in your mind. Thats fine. Rip on him all you want about having a bad season. I would say that Blake was way better than Carr ever thought about being, but whatever.

Here's what I think is truly important about looking forward with Steve Smith.

His last 32 games (two full seasons) with Delhomme at QB. A good sample size.

3153 total yards and 26 TDs.

That's a 1576/13 Average.

Ignore at your own peril.

 

[lord_helmet]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;

Too low list:

Steve Smith

Terrell Owens

Donald Driver

Deion Branch

DJ Hackett

Demetrius Williams

Too High

Ted Ginn

Roddy White

Santonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.

1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.

2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season.

3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.

4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3.

5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).

IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career.

I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Antonio Gates

Steve Smith

Randy Moss

Who do you think he deserves to be ahead of? IMO he has no business going before Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald.

You can make a strong case for Colston over Smith since Colston is singificantly younger and has been a consistent WR1 type producer for two straight years.

I guess you can make a case for Smith over Edwards, AJ, and Calvin. But I think Edwards and Johnson have just as much talent as Smith (if not more) and both of those guys are in much better situations (Schaub and DA/Quinn vs. ?).

Ranking Calvin over Smith might be a reach. Realistically though, I wouldn't even consider trading any of the other WRs in my top 10 for Steve Smith. Not for a minute.

I would sub Edwards and AJ into your "no business" list instead of Chad and Anquan. Chad has scored in exactly 4 games each of the last two seasons with 0 td's between weeks 14-16 in those years. Overall numbers are always there but the consistency is not. I'm not saying I'd put Smith ahead of Chad, but they're on about the same level to me.

With Anquan, again I'm not saying I'd definitely put Smith ahead of him, but I think Smith has just as good a chance of having a huge season as Boldin. Smith is almost a year and a half older, so that's not too much of a factor at their ages.

At this point I'd probably rank Colston ahead of Smith based strictly on age. I was expecting a dropoff from Colston this year, but I think after seeing the 2nd half he turned in that he is ready to be a top flight receiver for years to come. I'd probably rank Calvin lower than Smith, but just personal preference.

I think Smith in the 7-10 range is about right, depending on how you feel about him. His situation stinks, and if Carolina drafts a franchise QB that could cause his production to dip a little, but he's getting all the targets, all the DB attention, and still puts up numbers.

Chase Stuart put together a pretty good thread as to why Steve Smith should be the #1 rated dynasty WR prior to this season. I honestly don't think that losing his QB this year did anything to change that fact. There are some that are younger sure. But at 28, Smith still is a good bet for 5 or more years of top production. Projecting further than that is dicey at best with any non-QB. Smith was the #1 in 2005, #7 in 14 games of 2006 (so even if you started a #4 type WR for those other two games, you still got top 5 production.) Then he lost his QB this year. He finished 19th. I would be shocked if the Panthers didn't improve upon their backup QB situation this off season. What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner? Seriously.

Its amazing how quickly it is forgotten how dominating this guy can be. Buy low.

EBF- I think you do a great job with these lists, and didn't mean it as an attack on you. Obviously we just have differing opinions on some players.

This is what I don't understand. Why is Steve Smith allowed to suck? He had plenty of targets this past season and still had a weak year. Roddy #######' White had 200 more receiving yards than Smith on fewer targets with a revolving door of stud QBs like Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich. If Sharod can do it, then why not Smith? Why does he get a pass for his weak season when other players have succeeded in similar situations?

What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner?

Boldin had almost 1,400 yard with Jeff Blake under center. He puts up numbers regardless of who's throwing him the ball. That's what an elite WR is supposed to do. Steve Smith didn't do it last year. I don't care who was throwing him the ball. He didn't get the job done and other guys did. IMO there's no reason to rank him ahead of those guys right now. Does he have the potential to bounce back? Sure. Maybe he'll be a stud WR again next season. But that doesn't mean he deserves to be ranked ahead of guys like Chad, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Colston. Where I have him is fair. It's not reasonable to rank him any higher than WR7-8.

Hue Jackson

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

You know Im sorry I said that it just kind of shocked me at first I think theyre pretty good rankings certainly original I just really dont agree with;Too low list:Steve SmithTerrell OwensDonald DriverDeion BranchDJ HackettDemetrius WilliamsToo HighTed GinnRoddy WhiteSantonio Holmes

Smith - All hype and no numbers. He has a whopping one elite season under his belt. I know he's had some injury issues and I know his supporting cast is bad, but why does he deserve such a pass for that? Plenty of receivers have put up monster numbers with weak passers under center. I don't think Steve Smith is a bad player. I just don't think he's as good as advertised. He's basically a more hyped up, slightly better version of Santana Moss.

This is just not a good analysis.Smith does have exactly one elite season. I agree. I think there are some circumstances to consider here however.1. 2003 Smiths' 3rd year in the league he posted 1110/7. Not elite, but you could see the talent was there. Good for 15th best WR.2. 2004 Smith breaks his ankle in week 1 and misses the entire season. 3. 2005 Elite season 1563/12 Number 1 WR in the league by a wide margin.4. 2006 Smith starts off the year with hamstring problems with both legs. He misses the first two games, and goes on to post 1166/8. With those numbers (and 14 games) he finished 7th in WR scoring. Over 16 games that would have been 1333/9. Numbers that put him in the top 3. 5. 2007 Smith starts out with 281/4 in his first three games with Delhomme. Top 5 WR numbers. The collection of David Carr, Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore led him to a 1002/7 season good for 19th overall in WRs (15 games).IMO if someone in your league believes in his ranking being as low as EBF has him, buy now. The guy is 28 years old, and right in the middle of the prime of his career. I read something a while back quoting an NFL scout. He named the 5 most feared players in the league for a defense. In no particular order.Tom BradyPeyton ManningAntonio GatesSteve SmithRandy Moss

Who do you think he deserves to be ahead of? IMO he has no business going before Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald. You can make a strong case for Colston over Smith since Colston is singificantly younger and has been a consistent WR1 type producer for two straight years. I guess you can make a case for Smith over Edwards, AJ, and Calvin. But I think Edwards and Johnson have just as much talent as Smith (if not more) and both of those guys are in much better situations (Schaub and DA/Quinn vs. ?). Ranking Calvin over Smith might be a reach. Realistically though, I wouldn't even consider trading any of the other WRs in my top 10 for Steve Smith. Not for a minute.

I would sub Edwards and AJ into your "no business" list instead of Chad and Anquan. Chad has scored in exactly 4 games each of the last two seasons with 0 td's between weeks 14-16 in those years. Overall numbers are always there but the consistency is not. I'm not saying I'd put Smith ahead of Chad, but they're on about the same level to me.With Anquan, again I'm not saying I'd definitely put Smith ahead of him, but I think Smith has just as good a chance of having a huge season as Boldin. Smith is almost a year and a half older, so that's not too much of a factor at their ages.At this point I'd probably rank Colston ahead of Smith based strictly on age. I was expecting a dropoff from Colston this year, but I think after seeing the 2nd half he turned in that he is ready to be a top flight receiver for years to come. I'd probably rank Calvin lower than Smith, but just personal preference. I think Smith in the 7-10 range is about right, depending on how you feel about him. His situation stinks, and if Carolina drafts a franchise QB that could cause his production to dip a little, but he's getting all the targets, all the DB attention, and still puts up numbers.

Chase Stuart put together a pretty good thread as to why Steve Smith should be the #1 rated dynasty WR prior to this season. I honestly don't think that losing his QB this year did anything to change that fact. There are some that are younger sure. But at 28, Smith still is a good bet for 5 or more years of top production. Projecting further than that is dicey at best with any non-QB. Smith was the #1 in 2005, #7 in 14 games of 2006 (so even if you started a #4 type WR for those other two games, you still got top 5 production.) Then he lost his QB this year. He finished 19th. I would be shocked if the Panthers didn't improve upon their backup QB situation this off season. What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner? Seriously. Its amazing how quickly it is forgotten how dominating this guy can be. Buy low.EBF- I think you do a great job with these lists, and didn't mean it as an attack on you. Obviously we just have differing opinions on some players.

This is what I don't understand. Why is Steve Smith allowed to suck? He had plenty of targets this past season and still had a weak year. Roddy #######' White had 200 more receiving yards than Smith on fewer targets with a revolving door of stud QBs like Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich. If Sharod can do it, then why not Smith? Why does he get a pass for his weak season when other players have succeeded in similar situations?

What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner?

Boldin had almost 1,400 yard with Jeff Blake under center. He puts up numbers regardless of who's throwing him the ball. That's what an elite WR is supposed to do. Steve Smith didn't do it last year. I don't care who was throwing him the ball. He didn't get the job done and other guys did. IMO there's no reason to rank him ahead of those guys right now. Does he have the potential to bounce back? Sure. Maybe he'll be a stud WR again next season. But that doesn't mean he deserves to be ranked ahead of guys like Chad, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Colston. Where I have him is fair. It's not reasonable to rank him any higher than WR7-8.

Jeff Blake was a decent but not spectacular QB who actually had some good years and one who was known as throwing a good deep ball. They were always behind in AZ and chucking the ball a ton. Carr was absolutely that bad and made Harrington and Co look like Joe Montana. Carr pretty much looked for a dump off or got sacked and that was about it. When he has a QB that can get him the ball there isn't a more dangerous WR in the game. You've said yourself that you have to base dynasty rankings on talent and there are very few on that list that have more talent. Roddy White does not have more talent than the Steve Smith I've watched in recent years.

 

[kremenull]

Jennings - Maybe he deserves to be about 4-5 spots higher, but that would be the most I could justify bumping him up. Most of the guys ahead of him have already had at least one big season (Moss, Evans, Roddy, Marshall). Until Jennings has that true breakout 1,200+ year, I can't justify ranking him much higher. I realize there isn't much difference between him and Holmes on paper. I guess I'm just a little bit higher on Holmes' talent.

Wha? How was this year not a breakout year? The guy went for 920/11 in only 13 games. Over 16 games that's 1150/14, which is better than anything most of the people ahead of him have done at any point in their careers.

Great point! Jennings is a true playmaker in every sense.....very good hands, nice route-running, speed, and great RAC ability.........Jennings is a full tier above Rice at this point, and I don't see the gap closing anytime soon, if ever.......A ton of guys with potential, especially at WR, have failed to pan out in the pros......Jennings > Holmes and Holmes > Rice

 

[EBF]

You've said yourself that you have to base dynasty rankings on talent and there are very few on that list that have more talent.

That's the problem. Smith was junk last year and I'd argue that he doesn't have more talent than:Randy MossLarry FitzgeraldAnquan BoldinAndre JohnsonLarry Fitzgerald Chad JohnsonMarques ColstonReggie WayneCalvin JohnsonBraylon EdwardsIt's not like I have him ranked below Ike Hilliard. Most of the guys above him are STUD talents. I'll generally take the stud talent who's producing over the stud talent who *might* produce. So I think it's fair to rank all of these guys above Smith (with the possible exception of Calvin, who is just a gut call at WR9).

 

[kremenull]

This is what I don't understand. Why is Steve Smith allowed to suck? He had plenty of targets this past season and still had a weak year.

Roddy #######' White had 200 more receiving yards than Smith on fewer targets with a revolving door of stud QBs like Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich. If Sharod can do it, then why not Smith? Why does he get a pass for his weak season when other players have succeeded in similar situations?

What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner?

Boldin had almost 1,400 yard with Jeff Blake under center. He puts up numbers regardless of who's throwing him the ball. That's what an elite WR is supposed to do. Steve Smith didn't do it last year. I don't care who was throwing him the ball. He didn't get the job done and other guys did. IMO there's no reason to rank him ahead of those guys right now. Does he have the potential to bounce back? Sure. Maybe he'll be a stud WR again next season. But that doesn't mean he deserves to be ranked ahead of guys like Chad, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Colston. Where I have him is fair. It's not reasonable to rank him any higher than WR7-8.

For one, it's not a similar situation........Steve Smith gets double-, and often triple-teamed on a regular basis, garnering the complete focus of DCs each and every week while guys like Roddy White aren't game-planned for at all.......Sure, White did well and I'll give him credit for it, but Smith absolutely is a near unanimous Top 5 WR in dynasty, no doubt. His (well-documented in here) production per game is very good over the last few seasons, and his impact is unquestioned, real or fantasy. One down year, especially from a WR, should not severely diminish a guy's value.......how many of us had Randy Moss as a Top 5-10 WR going into this past season?.....but now he is all of a a sudden #2, at least on this list. But due to his failings over the past few seasons, we had no choice but to devalue him......I'd like to not make a similar mistake with Smith....... No way I'd take Boldin over Smith....Smith can clock 300+ fantasy pts (and has), and Boldin will never get to that level......

 

[EBF]

This is what I don't understand. Why is Steve Smith allowed to suck? He had plenty of targets this past season and still had a weak year.

Roddy #######' White had 200 more receiving yards than Smith on fewer targets with a revolving door of stud QBs like Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich. If Sharod can do it, then why not Smith? Why does he get a pass for his weak season when other players have succeeded in similar situations?

What would be the opinion on Boldin/Fitz if the situation was reversed and they had David Carr tossing them the ball instead of Warner?

Boldin had almost 1,400 yard with Jeff Blake under center. He puts up numbers regardless of who's throwing him the ball. That's what an elite WR is supposed to do. Steve Smith didn't do it last year. I don't care who was throwing him the ball. He didn't get the job done and other guys did. IMO there's no reason to rank him ahead of those guys right now. Does he have the potential to bounce back? Sure. Maybe he'll be a stud WR again next season. But that doesn't mean he deserves to be ranked ahead of guys like Chad, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Colston. Where I have him is fair. It's not reasonable to rank him any higher than WR7-8.

For one, it's not a similar situation........Steve Smith gets double-, and often triple-teamed on a regular basis, garnering the complete focus of DCs each and every week while guys like Roddy White aren't game-planned for at all.......Sure, White did well and I'll give him credit for it, but Smith absolutely is a near unanimous Top 5 WR in dynasty, no doubt. His (well-documented in here) production per game is very good over the last few seasons, and his impact is unquestioned, real or fantasy. One down year, especially from a WR, should not severely diminish a guy's value.......how many of us had Randy Moss as a Top 5-10 WR going into this past season?.....but now he is all of a a sudden #2, at least on this list. But due to his failings over the past few seasons, we had no choice but to devalue him......I'd like to not make a similar mistake with Smith....... No way I'd take Boldin over Smith....Smith can clock 300+ fantasy pts (and has), and Boldin will never get to that level......

Comparing Steve Smith to Randy Moss is like comparing Ray Allen to Michael Jordan. One guy is good. The other guy is a superfreak. Steve Smith is no Randy Moss and will never sniff the kind of numbers Moss has put up on a routine basis.

All the Smith supporters use the same arguments.

If he had stayed healthy...

If he had a good QB...

If he wasn't getting doubled on every play...

I have an if of my own: If I'm going to draft a WR in the top 5, I don't want him to have any ifs.

Facts are facts. Smith has ONE, count it, ONE season of 1,200+ receiving yards. He's tough as nails and he's a great big play WR, but he doesn't have the size of a great red zone target like Edwards or Moss and he hasn't been consistent enough from a yardage standpoint to warrant all the love he gets.

I'm not going to back down off my original assertion. Steve Smith is Santana Moss with a little more talent and a lot more hype.

 

[SayWhat?]

Steve Smith is Santana Moss with a little more talent and a lot more hype.

You've had some valid points EBF. But that's just nonsense. Steve Smith is ten times the WR Santana Moss is or ever has been, both in the NFL and fantasy.

 

[EBF]

Steve Smith is Santana Moss with a little more talent and a lot more hype.

You've had some valid points EBF. But that's just nonsense. Steve Smith is ten times the WR Santana Moss is or ever has been, both in the NFL and fantasy.

Look at the head-to-head comparison:Years played

Smith: 7

Moss: 7

Games played

Smith: 92

Moss: 95

Receptions

Smith: 431

Moss: 351

Receiving yards

Smith: 5,927

Moss: 5,497

Receiving TDs

Smith: 37

Moss: 37

Average season

Smith: 62 catches, 847 yards, 5 TD

Moss: 50 catches, 785 yards, 5 TD

Smith comes out ahead, but it's not a huge difference. You can argue that the numbers are a little unbalanced because Smith missed a year of his prime whereas Moss missed a year early in his career. Even so, the difference really isn't that big. Certainly not big enough to justify your claim that Steve Smith is "ten times" the WR that Moss is.

 

[DWidmar]

Why Sidney Rice so high? 1) Horrible passing offense 2) Rice didn't really stand out this season 3) Looks like a #2 NFL WR

Rice's value rests mostly on the future. He's barely 21 years old and he flashed enough potential as a rookie to make you think he might eventually become an elite WR in the NFL. I disagree that he didn't stand out this season. He made several highlight reel grabs and generally had a good season for a rookie underclassman WR on a terrible passing team. I also don't know if I agree with your claim that he looks like a #2 NFL WR. I wish he had a little more speed and burst to run short routes, but he has big time jump ball skills and athletic ability. The fact that he plays on a horrible passing offense is almost irrelevant for dynasty purposes. Situations fluctuate in the NFL. So while the Vikings aren't a good passing team right now, they might be leading the league in passing yards in 2010. You generally can't bank on a player's situation in the long-term. What you can bank on is his talent.

Guys like Cotchery, Welker, Hackett, and certainly Jennings should be rated several spots higher than Rice in dynasty. Rice isn't even in their tier........

I'd argue that Rice has more raw talent than all of those guys with the possible exception of Jennings. Welker is a slot WR whose success is largely the result of an ideal situation and a huge number of targets. Cotchery is merely a good possession WR. Hackett has proven nothing. Rice is a home run pick where I have him ranked. The odds of him busting are higher than most of the WRs ranked 15-30, but he has more upside than most of those guys. He's a player who could conceivably be a perennial top 10 WR some day.

Honestly, I can't see who I'd compare Rice to who is a legitimate #1 WR......maybe a poor man's Braylon Edwards........but not quite the fearlessness nor the consistency in his routes, nor the RAC ability. Could one day become a solid #2, ala Alvin Harper, but just like Harper, this guy is miscast as a #1. Most of the guys looked at as #1s aren't real #1s. A true #1 strikes fear into defenses and demands double-teams on a routine basis. All I know is that strong possession guys who can catch 85-100 balls, score more fantasy points than pretending #1 WRs who catch 60-75 balls. It's tough being a #1 in the NFL, and not every team has one. See T.B. (sorry joey gall), S.D., Mia, Phi, Atl, Chi, Sea, S.F., Jax, Ten, Pit (nope, great #2s), Oak, Bal, Jets, Wash, and Min.......A guy like Bowe is more likely to become a true #1 than Rice, IMO, and I honestly like Rice.......just not nearly as high as you have him here

Did you watch Rice play in College? He put fear into almost every defense he played against. He may not be fast as some other guys but he does a great job of getting seperation and seems to get by DB's for the long TD's. He has great hands and makes guys miss him in the open field. His greatest presence will be felt in the red zone. He came out one year to early in my opinion. He has some catching up to do at the NFL level. However when this guy gets it, he will be a top 10 wr year in and year out. He is that good. This is his rookie season, don't be too quick to dismiss him. It takes most WR's several years to get it at the next level.

 

[jonboltz]

Steve Smith is Santana Moss with a little more talent and a lot more hype.

You've had some valid points EBF. But that's just nonsense. Steve Smith is ten times the WR Santana Moss is or ever has been, both in the NFL and fantasy.

Look at the head-to-head comparison:Years played

Smith: 7

Moss: 7

Games played

Smith: 92

Moss: 95

Receptions

Smith: 431

Moss: 351

Receiving yards

Smith: 5,927

Moss: 5,497

Receiving TDs

Smith: 37

Moss: 37

Average season

Smith: 62 catches, 847 yards, 5 TD

Moss: 50 catches, 785 yards, 5 TD

Smith comes out ahead, but it's not a huge difference. You can argue that the numbers are a little unbalanced because Smith missed a year of his prime whereas Moss missed a year early in his career. Even so, the difference really isn't that big. Certainly not big enough to justify your claim that Steve Smith is "ten times" the WR that Moss is.

You can make a lot of things look different by playing with the stats...1. You are counting Smith's first year, 15 games where he was almost exclusively a KR/PR

2. Since becoming starters:

Smith has averaged 1142/7.4

Moss has averaged 985/6.6

Maybe not "ten times" better, but pretty significantly better.

 

[DWidmar]

Overall I think the rankings are great. Sure there are a few guys I might move up or down but that is probably cuz they are on my team or I watched them more than other players.

I really like your outlook on how and why you rank the players. In a dynasty league, you have to plan way ahead. I held on to Alexander one year too long and it was next to impossible to trade him for any value. I basically had to give him away in a deal to get a younger RB. You have to play the odd's and percentages on when players stats seem to take a dive based on age etc.. We had a huge debate with the Harrison owner prior to the start of this season. He said the guy was going to put up numbers until he was 40 because he was special. We all tried to point out the norm for players at his age and he wouldn't buy it. Well he played where we all thought he would. Now I realize he was hurt but that is the whole point. When players get to a certain age they tend to slow down and get more brittle. We don't know a guy is going to be special until he has already shown us he is special.

 

[EBF]

Steve Smith is Santana Moss with a little more talent and a lot more hype.

You've had some valid points EBF. But that's just nonsense. Steve Smith is ten times the WR Santana Moss is or ever has been, both in the NFL and fantasy.

Look at the head-to-head comparison:Years played

Smith: 7

Moss: 7

Games played

Smith: 92

Moss: 95

Receptions

Smith: 431

Moss: 351

Receiving yards

Smith: 5,927

Moss: 5,497

Receiving TDs

Smith: 37

Moss: 37

Average season

Smith: 62 catches, 847 yards, 5 TD

Moss: 50 catches, 785 yards, 5 TD

Smith comes out ahead, but it's not a huge difference. You can argue that the numbers are a little unbalanced because Smith missed a year of his prime whereas Moss missed a year early in his career. Even so, the difference really isn't that big. Certainly not big enough to justify your claim that Steve Smith is "ten times" the WR that Moss is.

You can make a lot of things look different by playing with the stats...1. You are counting Smith's first year, 15 games where he was almost exclusively a KR/PR

2. Since becoming starters:

Smith has averaged 1142/7.4

Moss has averaged 985/6.6

Maybe not "ten times" better, but pretty significantly better.

Which is why I have Smith 9 spots higher than Moss. I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

 

[jonboltz]

Steve Smith is Santana Moss with a little more talent and a lot more hype.

You've had some valid points EBF. But that's just nonsense. Steve Smith is ten times the WR Santana Moss is or ever has been, both in the NFL and fantasy.

Look at the head-to-head comparison:Years played

Smith: 7

Moss: 7

Games played

Smith: 92

Moss: 95

Receptions

Smith: 431

Moss: 351

Receiving yards

Smith: 5,927

Moss: 5,497

Receiving TDs

Smith: 37

Moss: 37

Average season

Smith: 62 catches, 847 yards, 5 TD

Moss: 50 catches, 785 yards, 5 TD

Smith comes out ahead, but it's not a huge difference. You can argue that the numbers are a little unbalanced because Smith missed a year of his prime whereas Moss missed a year early in his career. Even so, the difference really isn't that big. Certainly not big enough to justify your claim that Steve Smith is "ten times" the WR that Moss is.

You can make a lot of things look different by playing with the stats...1. You are counting Smith's first year, 15 games where he was almost exclusively a KR/PR

2. Since becoming starters:

Smith has averaged 1142/7.4

Moss has averaged 985/6.6

Maybe not "ten times" better, but pretty significantly better.

Which is why I have Smith 9 spots higher than Moss. I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

From a quick eye-ballling...1. Randy

2. Chad

3. Fitz

4. Coltson

5. Wayne

6. S Smith

7. Boldin*

8. AJ

*injuries played a large part in this.

 

[SayWhat?]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD'sAnquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD'sLarry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD'sMarques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD'sReggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD'sChad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD'sRandy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD'sAndre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD'sOut of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

 

[jonboltz]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD'sAnquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD'sLarry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD'sMarques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD'sReggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD'sChad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD'sRandy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD'sAndre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD'sOut of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

You should be including 2002 for Smith as he was the starter that year...

 

[sheerterror]

Awesome discussion going on here guys, keep up the good work.

 

[SayWhat?]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:

Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD's

Anquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD's

Larry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD's

Marques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD's

Reggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD's

Chad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD's

Randy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD's

Andre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD's

Out of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

You should be including 2002 for Smith as he was the starter that year...

Sure, for about a half a game. And if you want to go that route, then obviously Smith's numbers won't be on par with the "elite". I think the point is that there isn't much of a difference between a lot of these top tier WR's when it comes to productivity over a prolonged period of time. To say that Smith isn't on par with (insert "stud" WR here) is nonsense.

ETA for those missing the point: Steve Smith (5 years, GP 16-1-16-14-15) 73 catches, 969 yards, 7 TD's

 

[jonboltz]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:

Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD's

Anquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD's

Larry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD's

Marques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD's

Reggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD's

Chad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD's

Randy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD's

Andre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD's

Out of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

You should be including 2002 for Smith as he was the starter that year...

Sure, for about a half a game. And if you want to go that route, then obviously Smith's numbers won't be on par with the "elite". I think the point is that there isn't much of a difference between a lot of these top tier WR's when it comes to productivity over a prolonged period of time. To say that Smith isn't on par with (insert "stud" WR here) is nonsense.

ETA for those missing the point: Steve Smith (5 years, GP 16-1-16-14-15) 73 catches, 969 yards, 7 TD's

Bio

2002

Earned the starting job at wide receiver during training camp...Started 13 of the 15 games he played...Served as the primary returner on special teams...Led the Panthers with 872 receiving yards and ranked second with 54 catches...Tied for second with three touchdown catches...Averaged 8.5 yards on 55 punt returns for 470 yards and two touchdowns, including a career-long 87-yarder...Averaged 22.0 yards on 26 kickoff returns for 571 yards, with a long of 51 yards...16.1-yard average per catch ranked second in the NFC and sixth in the NFL among players with 50 or more receptions...1,909 combined net yards ranked seventh in the NFL...Served one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team versus Atlanta (11/24)..

 

[EBF]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD'sAnquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD'sLarry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD'sMarques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD'sReggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD'sChad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD'sRandy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD'sAndre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD'sOut of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

It looks like you're being a bit selective with your data. Wasn't Steve Smith a starter in 2002? If you're going to include Fitzgerald's rookie season in your data then I don't see why you don't also include Smith's 2002 season. A more accurate way to measure the productivity of these players might be to measure the average production per season after and including the breakout season. That would eliminate the "developmental" years and give us a better idea of how each guy has performed since emerging as a star.

 

[SayWhat?]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD'sAnquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD'sLarry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD'sMarques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD'sReggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD'sChad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD'sRandy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD'sAndre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD'sOut of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

It looks like you're being a bit selective with your data. Wasn't Steve Smith a starter in 2002? If you're going to include Fitzgerald's rookie season in your data then I don't see why you don't also include Smith's 2002 season. A more accurate way to measure the productivity of these players might be to measure the average production per season after and including the breakout season. That would eliminate the "developmental" years and give us a better idea of how each guy has performed since emerging as a star.

Sure, you could go that route with the data. And I suppose you could conclude that eliminating a season in which Steve Smith only played a half a game is being "selective." But you haven't been arguing that Steve Smith is injury prone and likely to miss entire seasons. You're arguing that his production isn't on par with the other stud WR's. You're arguing that he's done nothing to deserve the hype that he gets. I'm not sure how, after seeing that data, you could still sit firmly on that opinion. Play around with the numbers all you want. Eliminate Fitzgerald's rookie season. Show us the season stats for each WR after their "breakout" season. You're still going to get numbers in the same ballpark. And they'll still show that Smith's production is on par with any other WR in the game. Unless, of course, you want to include a season in which Smith hauled in a single catch for six yards due to a broken leg and argue that this accurately reflects what his production is in any given year. If that's the case, I've got nothin' for ya.

 

[SayWhat?]

WITH SELECTIVITY:

Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:

Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD's - no change

Anquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD's - no change

Larry Fitzgerald (3 years, GP of 16-13-15) - 91 catches, 1256 yards, 9 TD's - removed rookie year

Marques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD's - no change

Reggie Wayne (4 years, GP of 16-16-16-16) - 88 catches, 1271 yards, 9 TD's - removed 1st year as starter

Chad Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 92 catcges, 1374 yards, 9 TD's - removed 1st year as a starter

Randy Moss (8 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16) - 84 catches, 1329 yards, 14 TD's - removed 2 years of the Oakland debacle

Andre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD's - no change (could've removed this year due to 9 games played, but it's his best statistical season

I'm still not seeing the hate on Steve Smith. The only WR not in line with Smith's numbers is Randy Moss, but outside of Oakland he's been a fantasy WR in his own tier since he came into the league.

 

[EBF]

I'd be curious to see Smith's season averages since he became a starter compared with those of Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Wayne, Chad, Randy, and AJ.

Here's a crack at it.Season averages since becoming starters, based on season totals (not extrapolated data) with total seasons and games played in parenthesis:Steve Smith (4 years, GP of 16-16-14-15) - 91 catches, 1210 yards, 9 TD'sAnquan Boldin (5 years, GP of 16-10-14-16-12) - 83 catches, 1092 yards, 6 TD'sLarry Fitzgerald (4 years, GP of 16-16-13-15) - 83 catches, 1136 yards, 9 TD'sMarques Colston (2 years, GP of 14-16) - 84 catches, 1120 yards, 10 TD'sReggie Wayne (5 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16) - 84 catches, 1185 yards, 9 TD'sChad Johnson (6 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16) - 89 catcges, 1339 yards, 8 TD'sRandy Moss (10 years, GP of 16-16-16-16-16-16-13-16-13-16) - 77 catches, 1219 yards, 12 TD'sAndre Johnson (5 years, GP of 16-16-13-16-9) - 74 catches, 961 yards, 5 TD'sOut of these eight WR's, Smith averages the most catches, 3rd most yards and is tied for 3rd in TD's. The only WR who really has his data affected by season totals is Boldin, who misses more games than any of the others.

It looks like you're being a bit selective with your data. Wasn't Steve Smith a starter in 2002? If you're going to include Fitzgerald's rookie season in your data then I don't see why you don't also include Smith's 2002 season. A more accurate way to measure the productivity of these players might be to measure the average production per season after and including the breakout season. That would eliminate the "developmental" years and give us a better idea of how each guy has performed since emerging as a star.

Sure, you could go that route with the data. And I suppose you could conclude that eliminating a season in which Steve Smith only played a half a game is being "selective." But you haven't been arguing that Steve Smith is injury prone and likely to miss entire seasons. You're arguing that his production isn't on par with the other stud WR's. You're arguing that he's done nothing to deserve the hype that he gets. I'm not sure how, after seeing that data, you could still sit firmly on that opinion. Play around with the numbers all you want. Eliminate Fitzgerald's rookie season. Show us the season stats for each WR after their "breakout" season. You're still going to get numbers in the same ballpark. And they'll still show that Smith's production is on par with any other WR in the game. Unless, of course, you want to include a season in which Smith hauled in a single catch for six yards due to a broken leg and argue that this accurately reflects what his production is in any given year. If that's the case, I've got nothin' for ya.

If I thought he was a scrub, he wouldn't be in my top 10. But he doesn't stand out from the elite pack and he's coming off the worst season of the bunch except for rookie Calvin Johnson. I know he was great in 2005 and 2006. What I'm curious about is whether or not he'll be great moving forward. Unlike the pro-Smith crowd, I'm not willing to overlook his weak 2007 season so quickly. It's only natural to downgrade players after a bad year. It happens to everyone. Steve Smith shouldn't be immune to this. He played 16 games and didn't get the job done. Simple as that. Maybe he rebounds in 2008 and has a stud season. Then again, maybe he duplicates his 2007 season and puts up another dud year that kills the teams who draft him as a top 3 WR. The problem with ranking Steve Smith as a top 5 dynasty WR is that you're assuming that 2005 is the real Steve Smith and that 2007 was an aberration. Isn't it just as likely that 2005 was an aberration and 2007 was the real Steve Smith? I think the reality is somewhere in between. I think he's better than his 2007 finish, but worse than his 2005 finish. That's why I have him ranked in the middle of those two extremes. On a side note: I think it's worth noting that Muhsin Muhmmad was able to step in for Steve Smith and put up a 1,400 yard and 16 TD season in 2004 when Smith was hurt. To me this suggests that there may have been something in the Carolina passing system that allowed the number one WR to perform significantly above his talent level. For a good, but not great WR like Muhammad to be able to do what he did slightly diminishes what Smith has accomplished in the same system.

 

[salmonstud]

S.Smith is a superstar and has as much talent as any of the elite WR's. S.Smith in the open field is as dangerous as they come. I think many people are minimizing the importance of the offense as a whole instead of looking soley at one aspect...like another WR succeeding with a below average QB. An offense that doesn't have the ability for another key player to take the pressure off of one star player to keep D's honest will greatly impact that star's production. Look at Randy Moss in the Divisional playoff game. San Diego decided to take Moss out of the picture and kept him to 1 catch. NE has the weapons to make a team pay for triple covering Moss where Carolina does not.

Boldin has Fitz lining up next to him, Chad has Houshy. Reggie W, R. Moss, & Colston have elite QB's or play on teams that have other offensive weapons (Reggie Bush, Welker, Stallworth, Watson, Maroney) to make D pay for triple covering one player. Who does the Panthers have?......D.Williams, Carter, ? Even without other offensive weapons - S.Smith was putting up elite numbers with Delhomme....who is not P.Manning. The entire offensive dynamics have to be taken in consideration with rating a WR for future production and not just going on one year. The argument that S.Smith didn't get it done this season is a very short-sighted argument. That is no offense to EBF - who is one of the posters I respect the most on this board. I'm just amazed at how much people are throwing S.Smith under the bus when last year everyone had him in the top 3 for dynasty rankings.

If Carolina had another playmaker to reduce the double/triple teams or if Delhomme would have played the entire season - S.Smith would be put up top 10 numbers in 2007. Imagine if S.Smith played for Indy or New England. With Delhomme back and if Carolina can get at least one more playmaker on the offense - Smith will once again be a 10 if not top 5 WR. He has more athletic ability than Chad Johnson, Wayne or Boldin - just a worse situation team wise.

 

[Weiner Dog]

S.Smith is a superstar and has as much talent as any of the elite WR's. S.Smith in the open field is as dangerous as they come.

Career YAC (yards after catch):S Smith: 6.5

Owens: 5.5

Boldin: 5.2

A Johnson: 5.1

Driver: 4.4

L Evans: 4.4

Galloway: 4.1

R Moss: 3.9

Wayne: 3.7

C Johnson: 3.4

Harrison: 3.3

Fitzgerald: 3.3

NOTE: YAC was not an official stat until 1994.

 

[PranksterJD]

On a side note: I think it's worth noting that Muhsin Muhmmad was able to step in for Steve Smith and put up a 1,400 yard and 16 TD season in 2004 when Smith was hurt. To me this suggests that there may have been something in the Carolina passing system that allowed the number one WR to perform significantly above his talent level. For a good, but not great WR like Muhammad to be able to do what he did slightly diminishes what Smith has accomplished in the same system.

While I don't really think that Moose diminishes Smith any more than I buy, say, Bobby Engram diminishing what Darrell Jackson used to be or McDonald/Furrey diminishing Roy Williams, I will agree that the system in Carolina seems a bit more conducive to passing statistics than I typically think about. So, do you think that "something" in the Carolina air game is completely gone? Its not like 2006 was a bad year for Smith (1150/8 in 14 games), and Delhomme was blistering before he went down in '07. So, does having a solid QB ( yes, I think Jake's solid ) improve Smith's potential to come back into the top 5 range ( or are you assuming that in putting him in the top 10 )?Conversely, how much do you think the QB situation in 'Zona affects your #1? Fitz wasn't exactly blowing up the highlight reels during Leinart's tenure. Is he good enough to overcome? Do the Wayne production = Fitz production labels still hold if Leinart's back under center?

 

[EBF]

On a side note: I think it's worth noting that Muhsin Muhmmad was able to step in for Steve Smith and put up a 1,400 yard and 16 TD season in 2004 when Smith was hurt. To me this suggests that there may have been something in the Carolina passing system that allowed the number one WR to perform significantly above his talent level. For a good, but not great WR like Muhammad to be able to do what he did slightly diminishes what Smith has accomplished in the same system.

While I don't really think that Moose diminishes Smith any more than I buy, say, Bobby Engram diminishing what Darrell Jackson used to be or McDonald/Furrey diminishing Roy Williams, I will agree that the system in Carolina seems a bit more conducive to passing statistics than I typically think about. So, do you think that "something" in the Carolina air game is completely gone? Its not like 2006 was a bad year for Smith (1150/8 in 14 games), and Delhomme was blistering before he went down in '07. So, does having a solid QB ( yes, I think Jake's solid ) improve Smith's potential to come back into the top 5 range ( or are you assuming that in putting him in the top 10 )?Conversely, how much do you think the QB situation in 'Zona affects your #1? Fitz wasn't exactly blowing up the highlight reels during Leinart's tenure. Is he good enough to overcome? Do the Wayne production = Fitz production labels still hold if Leinart's back under center?

Having Jake back will definitely help Smith and give him a realistic chance at a top 10 season. I don't think he's a bad player. I just don't think he's going to give you 1,300+ yards and 10+ TDs on a regular basis (not many WRs will). I think somewhere between his 2007 and 2005 represents what you might expect from him in an average season with a competent QB. As for Fitz, I like him most in dynasty leagues because he's a surefire stud talent and he's only 24 years old. Maybe Leinart will hurt his numbers for a year or two, but if Leinart is a bust then he won't be starting forever and the Cards will try to bring in someone who can get Fitz the ball. You can't get too hung up on situation when you're talking dynasty value. For all we know Fitz will be on the Cowboys in two years (that's a rumor I've actually heard by the way).

 

[SSOG]

Sure, you could go that route with the data. And I suppose you could conclude that eliminating a season in which Steve Smith only played a half a game is being "selective." But you haven't been arguing that Steve Smith is injury prone and likely to miss entire seasons. You're arguing that his production isn't on par with the other stud WR's. You're arguing that he's done nothing to deserve the hype that he gets.

Smith broke his leg in 2004. The season everyone wants you to include is 2002, two year BEFORE he broke his leg, during which he appeared in 15 games and started 13. Steve Smith has been a starter for 5 years (not counting 2004, which he missed with a broken leg). He has not averaged 1210 yards per season as a starter, as you keep claiming- he has averaged 1143 yards (on 83 grabs, with 7.4 TDs). Looking at your original list, which you claim is a comparison of every WRs average SINCE THEY BECAME A STARTER, that would rank Smiff tied for 4th in catches, alone at 4th in yards, and 5th in TDs. Pro-rate Anquan's stats to cover his missed time and Smiff drops to 5th across the board.

S.Smith is a superstar and has as much talent as any of the elite WR's. S.Smith in the open field is as dangerous as they come.

Career YAC (yards after catch):S Smith: 6.5

Owens: 5.5

Boldin: 5.2

A Johnson: 5.1

Driver: 4.4

L Evans: 4.4

Galloway: 4.1

R Moss: 3.9

Wayne: 3.7

C Johnson: 3.4

Harrison: 3.3

Fitzgerald: 3.3

NOTE: YAC was not an official stat until 1994.

How many yards from the LoS does everyone catch their passes? The reason Smiff gets more YAC is because he runs more screen passes than any other WR in the league. This is the same reason why the best RBs get more YAC than the best WRs- it's not because they're better talents in the open field, it's simply because YAC is first and foremost a reflection of usage patterns more than anything else.Smiff is very good in the open field, but YAC is a misleading statistic that's practically useless to this discussion. Really, all its good for is determining usage patterns.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

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[Jeff Pasquino]

Based upon your evaulation of exit value, why is Fitz 1 but Edwards 6?

 

[EBF]

Based upon your evaulation of exit value, why is Fitz 1 but Edwards 6?

Fitz has two stud seasons and healthy knees. Edwards has one stud season and a torn ACL. In reality, it's probably a mistake to rank Edwards below Moss, Chad, and Wayne since he's young and he appears to be a freakish talent in his own right. But Fitz is one of the league leaders in ppg from 2005-2007. He's a no brainer stud when healthy. There's a little more fluke risk with Edwards since he hasn't shown he can do it twice.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Based upon your evaulation of exit value, why is Fitz 1 but Edwards 6?

Fitz has two stud seasons and healthy knees. Edwards has one stud season and a torn ACL. In reality, it's probably a mistake to rank Edwards below Moss, Chad, and Wayne since he's young and he appears to be a freakish talent in his own right.

Fair enough. Didn't want to hijack another thread for your own rankings, so brought this here.Just saw that they were about the same age and same last 2 seasons, or close enough.Fitz doesn't have a clean bill of health on his chart either, but I can give you the track record.I will say that Arizona's defense is more likely to outperform Cleveland's, so that could lean towards less passing in AZ sooner than in CLE - but there's many arguments on either side.