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Dynasty Year #2 strategy (1 Viewer)

Qmaster

Footballguy
Based on Colin's recent strategy article, which players do you see as "guys that on the cusp of being full-time , top-tier potential players" beginning in 2008 ?

I'm talking about guys like M. Turner - J. Norwood - J. Campbell...etc. Guys that may be undervalued in this years draft that you might consider drafting ahead of their 2007 ADP if you were targeting 2008 as the breakout year.

We are NOT talking about loading up on promising talented rookies who may be top-tier at some point in the next 3-5 years (guys like L. Booker - M .Bush - D. Bowe - S. Rice come to mind) We are talking about players that can make a splash in 2008, based on their current team, situation etc....read Colin's subscriber article for more info. :thumbup:

Appreciate your input in advance :popcorn:

 
Based on Colin's recent strategy article, which players do you see as "guys that on the cusp of being full-time , top-tier potential players" beginning in 2008 ?

I'm talking about guys like M. Turner - J. Norwood - J. Campbell...etc. Guys that may be undervalued in this years draft that you might consider drafting ahead of their 2007 ADP if you were targeting 2008 as the breakout year.

We are NOT talking about loading up on promising talented rookies who may be top-tier at some point in the next 3-5 years (guys like L. Booker - M .Bush - D. Bowe - S. Rice come to mind) We are talking about players that can make a splash in 2008, based on their current team, situation etc....read Colin's subscriber article for more info. :thumbup:

Appreciate your input in advance :goodposting:
I always try to acquire guys like this. What you want are solid prospects (i.e. high draft picks) who have a reasonable price tag due to limited opportunity. Some guys who currently fit this mold include Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, LenDale White, Jerious Norwood, Brian Calhoun, Sinorice Moss, Chad Jackson, Derek Hagan, Demetrius Williams, Heath Miller, and Marcedes Lewis. Some of these players carry a pretty high value, but none of them are on a Leinart/Maroney/Colston level. And while they won't all pan out, you can bet 1-2 of them will become quality FF starters. I'd also include second tier rookies in this group. For all the hoopla over Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, you can get Kenny Irons or Laurent Robinson/Mike Walker for pretty cheap. They're probably a better gamble in terms of cost vs. upside. A guy like Robinson has nearly the same upside as Calvin at a mere fraction of the cost (Calvin is a much flashier player, but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)

Strangely, it might actually be a smarter strategy to target rookies who underperform than to target the guys who blow up. You'll pay through the nose for a guy like Drew, Addai, or Bush. If they bust, you're broke. Meanwhile Kenny Irons, who isn't that much worse of a prospect than a guy like DeAngelo Williams, can be had for a marginal WR.

Anyhow, I always keep an eye out on young players who disappoint during their rookie seasons. I've made some offers for LenDale in some of my leagues and have successfully traded for Derek Hagan and Brian Calhoun in another. One of the reasons I picked up Bernard Berrian for dirt cheap last offseason in every single one of my money dynasty leagues is because I knew he was a third round pick and former top prospect. When he started making some noise down the stretch in 2005 and in training camp, I was quick to grab him well before the hype caught up.

 
Based on Colin's recent strategy article, which players do you see as "guys that on the cusp of being full-time , top-tier potential players" beginning in 2008 ?

I'm talking about guys like M. Turner - J. Norwood - J. Campbell...etc. Guys that may be undervalued in this years draft that you might consider drafting ahead of their 2007 ADP if you were targeting 2008 as the breakout year.

We are NOT talking about loading up on promising talented rookies who may be top-tier at some point in the next 3-5 years (guys like L. Booker - M .Bush - D. Bowe - S. Rice come to mind) We are talking about players that can make a splash in 2008, based on their current team, situation etc....read Colin's subscriber article for more info. :coffee:

Appreciate your input in advance :thumbup:
I always try to acquire guys like this. What you want are solid prospects (i.e. high draft picks) who have a reasonable price tag due to limited opportunity. Some guys who currently fit this mold include Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, LenDale White, Jerious Norwood, Brian Calhoun, Sinorice Moss, Chad Jackson, Derek Hagan, Demetrius Williams, Heath Miller, and Marcedes Lewis. Some of these players carry a pretty high value, but none of them are on a Leinart/Maroney/Colston level. And while they won't all pan out, you can bet 1-2 of them will become quality FF starters. I'd also include second tier rookies in this group. For all the hoopla over Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, you can get Kenny Irons or Laurent Robinson/Mike Walker for pretty cheap. They're probably a better gamble in terms of cost vs. upside. A guy like Robinson has nearly the same upside as Calvin at a mere fraction of the cost (Calvin is a much flashier player, but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)

Strangely, it might actually be a smarter strategy to target rookies who underperform than to target the guys who blow up. You'll pay through the nose for a guy like Drew, Addai, or Bush. If they bust, you're broke. Meanwhile Kenny Irons, who isn't that much worse of a prospect than a guy like DeAngelo Williams, can be had for a marginal WR.

Anyhow, I always keep an eye out on young players who disappoint during their rookie seasons. I've made some offers for LenDale in some of my leagues and have successfully traded for Derek Hagan and Brian Calhoun in another. One of the reasons I picked up Bernard Berrian for dirt cheap last offseason in every single one of my money dynasty leagues is because I knew he was a third round pick and former top prospect. When he started making some noise down the stretch in 2005 and in training camp, I was quick to grab him well before the hype caught up.
Excellent input EBF (as usual) ! :thumbup: Maybe the Sharks havent had the time to read Colin's article, what I'm looking at here is this is the INITIAL draft of a startup Dynasty league. The article is about possibly "playing for 2008" rather than drafting a really competitive team this season. Targeting guys who you know have a good shot at being top-tier starters or breakout players in 2008 and drafting them earlier than their 2007 ADP might suggest so that you can stockpile guys like this and be better set to be a top notch team in 2008 and beyond.

Also (not by tanking) but you probably wont be that competitive in 2007 then you might acquire a higher draft pick in 2008, combine this and possibly making trades to the 2007 contenders for older players that can help them down the playoff stretch, trading for 2008 draft picks and/or more of these 2008 "targeted" players. Again more stockpiling them for the 2008 season.

 
but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)
Chad Johnson isn't flashy? Since when?
chadjohnsonpic.jpg


 
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but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)
Chad Johnson isn't flashy? Since when?
chadjohnsonpic.jpg
That's not quite what I meant. I'm more talking about how draft gurus will hype up such and such prospect as 6'6" with 4.2 speed. The reality is that many of the best WRs in the NFL don't stand out on paper (Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and TJ Housh are 5-11"-6'1" 180-200 pounds with mediocre timed speed).

 
Based on Colin's recent strategy article, which players do you see as "guys that on the cusp of being full-time , top-tier potential players" beginning in 2008 ?

I'm talking about guys like M. Turner - J. Norwood - J. Campbell...etc. Guys that may be undervalued in this years draft that you might consider drafting ahead of their 2007 ADP if you were targeting 2008 as the breakout year.

We are NOT talking about loading up on promising talented rookies who may be top-tier at some point in the next 3-5 years (guys like L. Booker - M .Bush - D. Bowe - S. Rice come to mind) We are talking about players that can make a splash in 2008, based on their current team, situation etc....read Colin's subscriber article for more info. :no:

Appreciate your input in advance :bow:
I always try to acquire guys like this. What you want are solid prospects (i.e. high draft picks) who have a reasonable price tag due to limited opportunity. Some guys who currently fit this mold include Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, LenDale White, Jerious Norwood, Brian Calhoun, Sinorice Moss, Chad Jackson, Derek Hagan, Demetrius Williams, Heath Miller, and Marcedes Lewis. Some of these players carry a pretty high value, but none of them are on a Leinart/Maroney/Colston level. And while they won't all pan out, you can bet 1-2 of them will become quality FF starters. I'd also include second tier rookies in this group. For all the hoopla over Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, you can get Kenny Irons or Laurent Robinson/Mike Walker for pretty cheap. They're probably a better gamble in terms of cost vs. upside. A guy like Robinson has nearly the same upside as Calvin at a mere fraction of the cost (Calvin is a much flashier player, but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)

Strangely, it might actually be a smarter strategy to target rookies who underperform than to target the guys who blow up. You'll pay through the nose for a guy like Drew, Addai, or Bush. If they bust, you're broke. Meanwhile Kenny Irons, who isn't that much worse of a prospect than a guy like DeAngelo Williams, can be had for a marginal WR.

Anyhow, I always keep an eye out on young players who disappoint during their rookie seasons. I've made some offers for LenDale in some of my leagues and have successfully traded for Derek Hagan and Brian Calhoun in another. One of the reasons I picked up Bernard Berrian for dirt cheap last offseason in every single one of my money dynasty leagues is because I knew he was a third round pick and former top prospect. When he started making some noise down the stretch in 2005 and in training camp, I was quick to grab him well before the hype caught up.
Excellent input EBF (as usual) ! :thumbup: Maybe the Sharks havent had the time to read Colin's article, what I'm looking at here is this is the INITIAL draft of a startup Dynasty league. The article is about possibly "playing for 2008" rather than drafting a really competitive team this season. Targeting guys who you know have a good shot at being top-tier starters or breakout players in 2008 and drafting them earlier than their 2007 ADP might suggest so that you can stockpile guys like this and be better set to be a top notch team in 2008 and beyond.

Also (not by tanking) but you probably wont be that competitive in 2007 then you might acquire a higher draft pick in 2008, combine this and possibly making trades to the 2007 contenders for older players that can help them down the playoff stretch, trading for 2008 draft picks and/or more of these 2008 "targeted" players. Again more stockpiling them for the 2008 season.
Drafting for future impact is a decent strategy in an initial dynasty draft as long as you don't get carried away. The problem is that too many owners taking it to the extreme (I've been guilty of this in the past). It's good to draft youth and it's great to load up your bench with underrated prospects, but my experience in dynasty leagues is that teams that always play for tomorrow never seem to win because they're always tinkering with their roster trying to identify the next big thing. There's a healthy balance somewhere in the middle. You don't need to draft Calvin Johnson or Marvin Harrison. You can take a guy like Lee Evans instead. He represents a healthy median between the two extremes of promising youth and proven talent.

That said, it's better to undershoot and draft too young than it is to overshoot and draft too old. Younger teams can still get better. Older teams can only get older.

My current dynasty strategy is to focus on solid performers for the first 6-8 rounds. Once the vets are gone, I dip into the rookie, sophomore, and third year player pools with a vengeance.

 
What you want are solid prospects (i.e. high draft picks) who have a reasonable price tag due to limited opportunity.
:bow: Some people get impatient way too soon in dynasties. I'm guilty of this sometimes and it almost ALWAYS comes back to bite ya in the ###.
 
I'd also include second tier rookies in this group. For all the hoopla over Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, you can get Kenny Irons or Laurent Robinson/Mike Walker for pretty cheap. They're probably a better gamble in terms of cost vs. upside. A guy like Robinson has nearly the same upside as Calvin at a mere fraction of the cost (Calvin is a much flashier player, but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)
Chad Johnson isn't flashy? Since when?
chadjohnsonpic.jpg
That's not quite what I meant. I'm more talking about how draft gurus will hype up such and such prospect as 6'6" with 4.2 speed. The reality is that many of the best WRs in the NFL don't stand out on paper (Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and TJ Housh are 5-11"-6'1" 180-200 pounds with mediocre timed speed).
Holt was pick 1.06, I don't see how he's helping you make your point.Wayne and Marvin were also 1st round picks. CJ almost was.

Housh is the only guy you listed that fits your description.

 
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but Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Torry Holt aren't flashy and they carry elite value. A WR need not be flashy to light up the scoreboard.)
Chad Johnson isn't flashy? Since when?
chadjohnsonpic.jpg
That's not quite what I meant. I'm more talking about how draft gurus will hype up such and such prospect as 6'6" with 4.2 speed. The reality is that many of the best WRs in the NFL don't stand out on paper (Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and TJ Housh are 5-11"-6'1" 180-200 pounds with mediocre timed speed).
Holt was pick 1.06, I don't see how he's helping you make your point.Wayne and Marvin were also 1st round picks. CJ almost was.

Housh is the only guy you listed that fits your description.
My point is that while saying Laurent Robinson has the same upside as Calvin Johnson sounds absurd, it's actually a fairly reasonable claim. A guy doesn't have to be 6'5" or a top 10 pick to become a major player.Of course, I definitely favor high draft picks. And with good reason. The higher a player is drafted, the better his odds of success. So while Calvin's ceiling might not be much higher than Laurent's, he has a much greater chance of reaching that ceiling.

Nevertheless, a guy like Calvin Johnson will cost you a top 30 dynasty player. A guy like Laurent Robinson won't even cost you a top 30 rookie pick in a lot of leagues. The disparity in their cost is greater than the disparity in their value, which is why I advocate targeting guys like Robinson, C. Davis, Walker, and Hill. They have good talent at a bargain bin price.

Whereas you have to overpay for the likes of Vernon Davis, DeAngelo Williams, and Calvin Johnson (there's no margin of error at their ADP), you'll underpay for Marcedes Lewis, LenDale White, and Laurent Robinson. That brings me back to my initial point. Target the players who have top talent without top hype. They represent great value in dynasty leagues.

 
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This years ADP doesn't matter using the year 2 method....next years ADP does. I don't care what their value is now. I want players who will have better value next year than this year. Example is Michael Turner, but you have to trust your ability to look ahead and not worry about this year. I think he will be a top 15 RB next year with top 10 upside. Based on that, taking him in late round 4 is a steal. Of course this year many say it is a reach, but if you believe he will be a top 15 or so RB, then the 4th round is pretty good value. I am not at all afraid of risk. But I feel confident that i can overcome any bad pick(s), if there are any.

You also can't be afraid of making a mistake...you will occasionally. You have to make picks that you believe it, not what everyone else does. For example, if you think different than I do about Turner, then the 4th round is not where you would take him. I look for talent above everything, and I am not afraid to reach...with reach being defined as a current year reach. Today's reach is tomorrows steal.

I don't generally take many rookies when I draft this way. Reason being their value is too high for my liking. Now players like Calvin are exceptions. I took him at 2.09 in a new startup dynasty...and would do it again. The reason is I think he is the best prospect to ever come out of college. Sure, he could bust...anyone can. But what are the odds of that? I say slim to none. I think he will be a solid top 5 WR for many years. I had no reservations "reaching" for him.

I like to target 2nd year players who were hyped as rookies, but struggled. Their value is very low compared to their rookie year. I find that value of these players is much less than a comparable rookie.

I also target undervalued older players, but only those that I think have at least 3 good years left. You can get them cheap almost any startup dynasty. I also will take older players who slide, but rarely ever in the first 7-8 rounds.

 
You draft to win now and worry about the future later. You never know what will happen with promising youngsters and freak injuries.

 
Harald said:
You draft to win now and worry about the future later. You never know what will happen with promising youngsters and freak injuries.
You also don't know that you will actually win with your "win now" team. If you don't, you are going to be in a rebuild pretty soon, because the older players don't have trade value. Freak injuries can happen to anyone, and actually would hurt a win now team more than a year 2 team.In dynasties, I draft to have a strong core that can contend for years.
 
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