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Ebola (2 Viewers)

Ebola Epidemic Not Even Close to Over, UN Officials Say

BY MAGGIE FOX




























There may be signs of hope in Liberia, but the epidemic of Ebola in West Africa is getting worse, not better, and it’s going to take a lot more work to control it, United Nations officials said Friday.

Concerted efforts might be able to end it by the middle of next year, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon told reporters.








“There has been some welcome progress,” Ban said. “The results are uneven. The rate of transmission continues to worsen.”

Three top international leaders — Ban, World Health Organization director-general Dr. Margaret Chan and World Bank president Jim Yong Kim — used uncharacteristically strong language to urge more cooperation, coordination and a faster, sustained international response to the epidemic.

WHO released new statistics on Ebola that show “intense” transmission in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. “There have been 15,351 reported Ebola cases in eight countries since the outbreak began, with 5,459 reported deaths,” WHO said.


“This epidemic is not close to being over. Our end game is not near."


And all six people infected with Ebola in Mali have now died. “The new chain of transmission in Mali is of deep concern,” Ban said.

WHO and other health experts are tracking close to 500 people who may have been exposed in that outbreak, which is linked to a religious leader from Guinea who died after traveling to Bamako from Guinea.

“This epidemic is not close to being over. Our end game is not near,” said Kim.







“There’s clear evidence of areas of progress, particularly in Liberia, where new cases have declined significantly. International support is making a difference,” Kim added. “But there’s also evidence that is very worrisome, such as the increase in infections in Sierra Leone and the spreading of the outbreak to Mali.”



 
jon_mx said:
Ebola Epidemic Not Even Close to Over, UN Officials Say BY MAGGIE FOX




There may be signs of hope in Liberia, but the epidemic of Ebola in West Africa is getting worse, not better, and it’s going to take a lot more work to control it, United Nations officials said Friday.

Concerted efforts might be able to end it by the middle of next year, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon told reporters.


“There has been some welcome progress,” Ban said. “The results are uneven. The rate of transmission continues to worsen.”

Three top international leaders — Ban, World Health Organization director-general Dr. Margaret Chan and World Bank president Jim Yong Kim — used uncharacteristically strong language to urge more cooperation, coordination and a faster, sustained international response to the epidemic.

WHO released new statistics on Ebola that show “intense” transmission in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. “There have been 15,351 reported Ebola cases in eight countries since the outbreak began, with 5,459 reported deaths,” WHO said.

“This epidemic is not close to being over. Our end game is not near."
And all six people infected with Ebola in Mali have now died. “The new chain of transmission in Mali is of deep concern,” Ban said.

WHO and other health experts are tracking close to 500 people who may have been exposed in that outbreak, which is linked to a religious leader from Guinea who died after traveling to Bamako from Guinea.

“This epidemic is not close to being over. Our end game is not near,” said Kim.


“There’s clear evidence of areas of progress, particularly in Liberia, where new cases have declined significantly. International support is making a difference,” Kim added. “But there’s also evidence that is very worrisome, such as the increase in infections in Sierra Leone and the spreading of the outbreak to Mali.”
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I refuse to believe anything Fox reports.

 
The hospital where the original guy came to may go belly up.

They are going all out with advertisements on TV basically guilting people into coming back or else they will have to cut their workforce before Christmas.

 
culdeus said:
The hospital where the original guy came to may go belly up.

They are going all out with advertisements on TV basically guilting people into coming back or else they will have to cut their workforce before Christmas.
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When you say, "original" I don't think it means what you think it does...

 
Ebola In The Air: What Science Says About How The Virus Spreads

Here's an Ebola puzzle for you: If the virus isn't airborne, why do doctors and nurses need to wear full protective suits, with face masks, while treating patients?

After we dug through studies and talked to scientists, the answer slowly emerged.

Ebola does spread through the air. But not through the airborne route.

Oh goodness! No wonder there's been such a kerfuffle about how the virus is transmitted.

The story began quite innocently at Harvard University way back in the 1930s. William Wells was a hotshot engineer there at the time. And he was figuring out a slew of important ideas about infectious disease, like the fact that UV light kills bacteria.

One day in 1933, Wells discovered that pathogens (he was studying bacteria) get trapped in tiny droplets of fluid — maybe some mucus when you sneeze or some saliva when you cough. The pathogens stay alive in the fluid and can move through the air inside these droplets.

Clearly this is one way infections spread. But Wells didn't stop there.

He knew that liquid drops don't last for long in the air. They take one of two courses:

1. Large droplets fall to the ground because of gravity. (Just like rain)

2. Small drops start evaporating as they fall. Eventually, they become so light that they float in the air. (Just like fog).

"It appears, therefore, that transmission of infection through air may take on of two forms depending upon the size of the infected droplet," Wells wrote in the American Journal of Epidemiology in 1934. He gave these two routes names:

1. Droplet route: The pathogen falls to the ground in large droplets. The pathogen doesn't make it very far away from the source of the fluid. But if you intercept the drop's path, you could get infected.

2. Airborne route: The pathogen is lifted up into the air inside tiny droplets. The pathogen floats and can move long distances with air currents. If you inhale this mist, you could get infected.

Over the years, the first term didn't really stick with the media or general public. But the second one sure has. And what we've ended up with is one term that often gets used to describe both routes of transmission.

But oh, how they are different!

Viruses that move through the droplet route usually travel only about 3 feet (and no more than 6 feet). They stay in the air less than a second. So to catch these viruses, you have to be within 6 feet of a contagious person.

Ebola spreads through the droplet route. There's no doubt of that. A splash of Ebola-infected fluid to your face can be deadly.

Viruses that move through the second route — airborne route — can travel more than 30 feet and can stay in the air minutes, even hours, when the humidity and temperature are right.

That means you don't even have to see the person to catch a virus from them. An infected person could sneeze, walk out of the room and leave an infectious mist behind.

A few viruses, such as measles, chickenpox, spread this way (that's why they have such high R0s). What about Ebola?

In the lab, scientists can infect monkeys with Ebola virus through the airborne route. They essentially stick a monkey's head in a plastic tube and spray the animal's face with a mist infused with Ebola. If the humidity and temperature are right in the tube, the monkey can get Ebola.

But scientists haven't found evidence that Ebola spreads through the airborne route in real outbreaks, with real people.

Does that mean Ebola never catches a ride on tiny, floating droplets? No.

As Wells wrote nearly a century ago, "Failure to discover air-borne infection ... [doesn't] prove its absence."

But if Ebola does transmit through the airborne route, the process is highly inefficient and contributes only an infinitesimal amount to the virus's total spread.

Take the situation with Patrick Sawyer. Back in July, the Liberian American businessman boarded a plane from Monrovia to Lagos, Nigeria. He was clearly very sick — and very contagious — with Ebola. He even vomited while on the plane.

There were about 200 other passengers on the flight. None of them got infected.
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Interesting info. I have a different opinion on the last sentence though. It appears that the Virus does not spread to the blood or saliva until after several days symptoms first appear. This is why initial tests often produce negative results even though the people are already getting sick. The virus is mostly concentrated in your internal organs.

 
With people travelling home for the holidays, wouldn't surprise me to see it become headline news again shortly.

 
ffjunk said:
With people travelling home for the holidays, wouldn't surprise me to see it become headline news again shortly.
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Would you rather be on a flight with someone with Ebola, or with someone in front of you who reclines their seat all the way?

 
Was going to do a Philip Rivers joke but Sinn beat me to it way back.
msommer said:
El Floppo said:
culdeus said:
what is this rivers schtick you guys are running?
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somebody ran with some "news" that since people were dumping dead bodies in rivers, the rivers were spreading the ebola.
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IIRC it was jon_mx
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jon_mx said:
timschochet said:
Jon, you can post how terrible things are in Liberia, and if I lived there I'm certain I'd be somewhat concerned (though not real concerned, because it's still only affecting less than .05% of the population, and difficult to catch).

But that has nothing to do with my argument. When you decide it's a good idea to simply ban ANYONE who is Liberian from coming to this country, not just those who have the disease or who are in direct contact, but ANYONE, you are giving into hysteria. It's not cautious; it's not reasonable. It's an act based on panic, fear, and lazy thinking, and you'll never be able to justify it no matter how hard you try.
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:rolleyes: You understand Liberia is not controlling the problem. It is in their rivers. People are not reporting it. People are unknowlingly in contact with people as people are not being cared for. It is impossible for people to know if a person has been in contact. According to WHO it is spreading exponentially. 5,000 cases today could easily be 10,000 in a couple weeks. Even if it is at 0.05% of the population, you let 1,000 in, that makes it about a 50% possibility one of them has the disease. This is not the same as an irrational concerned with someone commuting through Texas. Your analogy is asinine.
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El Floppo said:
culdeus said:
what is this rivers schtick you guys are running?
Click to expand...
somebody ran with some "news" that since people were dumping dead bodies in rivers, the rivers were spreading the ebola.
Click to expand...
It wasn't "news", it was a fact the way the people in Liberian were dumping bodies, it was spreading the disease. The dead bodies have very high concentrations of the virus and are highly contagious. Improving the way dead bodies are being handled is one of the key ways that the spread of the disease has finally started to slow in recent months.

 
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jon_mx said:
El Floppo said:
culdeus said:
what is this rivers schtick you guys are running?
Click to expand...
somebody ran with some "news" that since people were dumping dead bodies in rivers, the rivers were spreading the ebola.
Click to expand...
It wasn't "news", it was a fact the way the people in Liberian were dumping bodies, it was spreading the disease. The dead bodies have very high concentrations of the virus and are highly contagious. Improving the way dead bodies are being handled is one of the key ways that the spread of the disease has finally started to slow in recent months.
Click to expand...
jon_mx doubling down on his "it's in the rivers" shtick!

 
msommer said:
jon_mx said:
El Floppo said:
culdeus said:
what is this rivers schtick you guys are running?
Click to expand...
somebody ran with some "news" that since people were dumping dead bodies in rivers, the rivers were spreading the ebola.
Click to expand...
It wasn't "news", it was a fact the way the people in Liberian were dumping bodies, it was spreading the disease. The dead bodies have very high concentrations of the virus and are highly contagious. Improving the way dead bodies are being handled is one of the key ways that the spread of the disease has finally started to slow in recent months.
Click to expand...
jon_mx doubling down on his "it's in the rivers" shtick!
Click to expand...
There numerous sources for this and multiple sources/groups/scientific analysis which showed the growth of the infections was growing exponentially, and yet this is somehow humorous. :rolleyes:

 
jon_mx said:
msommer said:
jon_mx said:
El Floppo said:
culdeus said:
what is this rivers schtick you guys are running?
Click to expand...
somebody ran with some "news" that since people were dumping dead bodies in rivers, the rivers were spreading the ebola.
Click to expand...
It wasn't "news", it was a fact the way the people in Liberian were dumping bodies, it was spreading the disease. The dead bodies have very high concentrations of the virus and are highly contagious. Improving the way dead bodies are being handled is one of the key ways that the spread of the disease has finally started to slow in recent months.
Click to expand...
jon_mx doubling down on his "it's in the rivers" shtick!
Click to expand...
There numerous sources for this and multiple sources/groups/scientific analysis which showed the growth of the infections was growing exponentially, and yet this is somehow humorous. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I knew you would come back with 'exponential'.

How's that working out for you?

 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/us-health-ebola-frieden-idUSKBN0KM1KG20150113

(Reuters) - The director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday he was "confident" that the Ebola outbreak ravaging West Africa can be brought under control, but that "we are by no means out of the woods."

Speaking at a breakfast meeting in Washington with public health officials and lawmakers, Dr. Tom Frieden said it is vital that every case of the disease is eliminated.

"I remain very confident we can get to zero cases in this epidemic if we continue the way we're going and nothing unexpected happens," he said.

While Frieden said he has seen "amazing" improvement in attempts to battle the disease, he said the recovery is patchy and fragile and that it will remain so until every case has been eradicated.

"The largest, biggest risk is that it continues to fester and continues to spread at a low rate, which means it could flare up at any time," he said. "We have to get to zero and then stay at zero and that's going to require monitoring, surveillance."

The Ebola epidemic has killed some 8,371 out of an estimated 21,171 known cases of people infected in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea alone, according to the latest available figures from the World Health Organization.

Jeremy Konyndyk, director of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance said improvements are occurring at varying rates in different countries.

The number of new cases in Liberia have dropped from more than 30 a day to the single-digits, Konyndyk said. Sierra Leone is also beginning to turn the corner, though cases remain widespread.

The most troubling country, however, remains Guinea, partly due to community resistance to efforts to combat the disease.

"We have been working hard to identify additional people to go to Guinea," Frieden said.

While confident the present epidemic can be controlled, Frieden emphasized the need for improvements in health infrastructure in the region.

"We need those robust national systems," he said. "Ebola is somewhat off the headlines in the U.S., but it remains a terrible problem in West Africa."
Click to expand...
 
msommer said:
jon_mx said:
msommer said:
jon_mx said:
El Floppo said:
culdeus said:
what is this rivers schtick you guys are running?
Click to expand...
somebody ran with some "news" that since people were dumping dead bodies in rivers, the rivers were spreading the ebola.
Click to expand...
It wasn't "news", it was a fact the way the people in Liberian were dumping bodies, it was spreading the disease. The dead bodies have very high concentrations of the virus and are highly contagious. Improving the way dead bodies are being handled is one of the key ways that the spread of the disease has finally started to slow in recent months.
Click to expand...
jon_mx doubling down on his "it's in the rivers" shtick!
Click to expand...
There numerous sources for this and multiple sources/groups/scientific analysis which showed the growth of the infections was growing exponentially, and yet this is somehow humorous. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I knew you would come back with 'exponential'.How's that working out for you?
Click to expand...
It Is working out quite well, thank you. People have responded to the crisis and changed the trend. The U.S. military built lots of locations so there were beds for people where they could be treated. Brave doctors and nurses from all over the world have helped treated victims. Governments have isolated areas where outbreaks have occurred and restricted travel. Methods of disposing and handling of the dead has improved. People have been better educated on the subject. So instead of the outbreak growing from 5000 infected to over 100,000 by now, it has only grown to 20.000. All told, there will have been over a million lives saved by the overwhelming response versus not doing anything. You do see that as a good thing?
 
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