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Ebola (1 Viewer)

Best I could find [regarding Sawyer's Ebola contact trail] ... don't know anything about the reporting veracity of the site. It doesn't appear that anyone on the plane got sick - but the person who welcomed him to Nigeria did.
http://encomium.ng/patrick-sawyers-chain-of-ebola-victims/

http://encomium.ng/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/chart1.jpg
I Googled a few of those names in the article to spot check ... Yahoo News had articles on some of the early ones, so I think the Encomium source is legit.

...

One thing that hurt initially in dealing with the Sawyer case in Nigeria was that he affirmed to medical staff that he hadn't been in contact with Ebola. For a while, he was treated for malaria, with nurses and doctors protecting themselves accordingly. Eventually, one of the doctors got suspicious and ran an Ebola test on Sawyer.

 
except for last week. And last month. But never again!
Times are different even from a week or two ago. You think someone in Vinson's position gets on a plane now?

What do you mean "last month"? Duncan? He faked his medical clearance papers in Liberia to get on a flight to Brussels.

 
The good news is that so far when people are found and treated quickly, the mortality rate seems to be much lower here in the US.

 
except for last week. And last month. But never again!
Times are different even from a week or two ago. You think someone in Vinson's position gets on a plane now?

What do you mean "last month"? Duncan? He faked his medical clearance papers in Liberia to get on a flight to Brussels.
A nurse with a fever got on a plane from Cleveland to Dallas last week.

 
This thread is getting exponentially suckier.
Pretty sure it's linear. It's been in a constant decline for days now.
There were several links that showed it was exponential and even had the curves from various countries. A report of decline is purely acendotal, a local report of picking up fewer dead bodies in a week. Hopefully it soon peak, but WHO is not expecting it to peak until December. Population type growths like these are modeled as exponential, not linear.

 
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I think jon is correct, that the outbreak in Africa has been exponential. That is where the US should really be focused in helping stop the spread. I am glad that we are using the military to build treatment centers, that is a good step.

 
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I think jon is correct, that the outbreak in Africa has been exponential. That is where the US should really be focused in helping stop the spread. I am glad that we are using the military to build treatment centers, that is a good step.
It's weird. I honestly can't tell if you're being serious or not.

 
I think jon is correct, that the outbreak in Africa has been exponential. That is where the US should really be focused in helping stop the spread. I am glad that we are using the military to build treatment centers, that is a good step.
They are going to need a Berlin Airlift of food and whatnot fairly soon. Really long, hard road to hoe to get this under control in that part of the world, with all kinds of horrific collateral damage to the uninfected along the way that I don't even want to go into.

My mind reels at the implications for those people over the next 6-12 months if that growth rate doesn't begin to come down in short order. 1M people with Ebola is not something I care to contemplate. I feel that is where we are heading. A quiet weekend in the States does not change that feeling.

 
How many confirmed cases in US so far?
Eight, and that's enough.
HFS, for real?I haven't seen any kind of news since Friday morning.
That's all the people that have come from "over there" plus the two nurses.
Oh, OK.

I thought that was like 6 new people in the general population over the weekend.
There were 4 aid workers who were cured, 3 at Emory and 1 in Nebraska.

Currently under treatment are two nurses who were infected by Duncan (who died). Also under treatment in Nebraska is the cameraman who came back from Liberia that half the thread wanted to leave in Africa to die. Emory also just released an government worker aid worker who they haven't released any info on (I say that means CIA, but who knows).

Ebola patients treated in US: 8

Patients Infected in Africa: 6

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 4

Patients under treatment: 3

Deceased: 1

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 12.5%

Cured: Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: Ashoka Mukpo (cameraman), Nina Pham (nurse of Duncan); Amber Vinson (nurse of Duncan, CDC gave info was OK to fly with low grade fever)

Deceased: Thomas Duncan
Yes, but this sort of misses the point I have been making:

Patients treated in hospitals, with biocontainment facilities, with a veritable army of medical personnel dedicated to them, have a 0% mortality rate and no transmissions of the disease

Patients treated in your regular hospital down the street have a 100% mortality rate and 2 disease transmissions

As long as we keep the numbers low, Ebola doesn't threaten the US. But, for the time being, to keep numbers low *all* infected should immediately be transported to the uber hospitals and not the one down the street.

 
A nurse with a fever got on a plane from Cleveland to Dallas last week.
A week that makes all the difference, as I conceded. That doesn't happen now.
:lmao:

Have you seen the people working the gates of the TSA? These aren't rocket scientists. I think you are putting a bit too much faith in their abilities to figure out who has ebola.

 
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Have you seen the people working the gates of the TSA? These aren't rocket scientists. I think you are putting a bit too much faith in their abilities to figure out who has ebola.
I'm not depending on the TSA at all. I'm depending on the containment protocols in place ... the kinds of controls that, for example, are monitoring the whereabouts of Pham's and Vinson's close contacts.

 
I flip a coin twice and it came up heads both times. I conclude there is a zero percent chance of tails on my next toss....

 
I think jon is correct, that the outbreak in Africa has been exponential. That is where the US should really be focused in helping stop the spread. I am glad that we are using the military to build treatment centers, that is a good step.
It's weird. I honestly can't tell if you're being serious or not.
of course I am. This is an African problem we should be helping with. Its not currently a significant US problem. It is bad for the US if it continues to spread.

 
If someone survives Ebola, can he or she still spread the virus?

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.
Going to need them to unpack the scenario where "abstinence is not possible."

 
How many confirmed cases in US so far?
Eight, and that's enough.
HFS, for real?I haven't seen any kind of news since Friday morning.
That's all the people that have come from "over there" plus the two nurses.
Oh, OK.

I thought that was like 6 new people in the general population over the weekend.
There were 4 aid workers who were cured, 3 at Emory and 1 in Nebraska.

Currently under treatment are two nurses who were infected by Duncan (who died). Also under treatment in Nebraska is the cameraman who came back from Liberia that half the thread wanted to leave in Africa to die. Emory also just released an government worker aid worker who they haven't released any info on (I say that means CIA, but who knows).

Ebola patients treated in US: 8

Patients Infected in Africa: 6

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 4

Patients under treatment: 3

Deceased: 1

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 12.5%

Cured: Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: Ashoka Mukpo (cameraman), Nina Pham (nurse of Duncan); Amber Vinson (nurse of Duncan, CDC gave info was OK to fly with low grade fever)

Deceased: Thomas Duncan
Yes, but this sort of misses the point I have been making:

Patients treated in hospitals, with biocontainment facilities, with a veritable army of medical personnel dedicated to them, have a 0% mortality rate and no transmissions of the disease

Patients treated in your regular hospital down the street have a 100% mortality rate and 2 disease transmissions

As long as we keep the numbers low, Ebola doesn't threaten the US. But, for the time being, to keep numbers low *all* infected should immediately be transported to the uber hospitals and not the one down the street.
I don't think this disease would ever spread to considerable numbers in the US. I supposed it is possible the US will continue to have small outbreaks here and there but I doubt it.

The US manages to handle meningitis outbreaks, which spreads "easily" and is very deadly. It is of course very sad for those who die/get sick, but its not really a major problem.

ETA: If needed, US hospitals will get better at dealing with it. It is new to them too.

 
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Why are southerners so easily freaked out?
Officials revealed the teacher at Strong Elementary School in Strong, Maine, was placed on mandatory 21-day leave after going to an educational conference and staying in a hotel 9.5 miles from Texas Health Presbyterian, where 'patient zero' Thomas Eric Duncan was diagnosed and treated before he died.She was one of five million people who commute through the Texas city.

However, the school cited 'parents' concerns' and ordered the teacher to remain in isolation for three weeks - the incubation period for Ebola, Portland Press Herald reported.

People freak out all over the place.
Well I hope they overcome and are #strongstrong

 
If someone survives Ebola, can he or she still spread the virus?

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.
Going to need them to unpack the scenario where "abstinence is not possible."
Just quoting a source. I thought it was interesting that 3 months later the virus could be spread. Not sure about the last part, except us studs have a hard time turning down ##### for three months.

 
How many confirmed cases in US so far?
Eight, and that's enough.
HFS, for real?I haven't seen any kind of news since Friday morning.
That's all the people that have come from "over there" plus the two nurses.
Oh, OK.I thought that was like 6 new people in the general population over the weekend.
There were 4 aid workers who were cured, 3 at Emory and 1 in Nebraska.

Currently under treatment are two nurses who were infected by Duncan (who died). Also under treatment in Nebraska is the cameraman who came back from Liberia that half the thread wanted to leave in Africa to die. Emory also just released an government worker aid worker who they haven't released any info on (I say that means CIA, but who knows).

Ebola patients treated in US: 8

Patients Infected in Africa: 6

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 4

Patients under treatment: 3

Deceased: 1

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 12.5%

Cured: Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: Ashoka Mukpo (cameraman), Nina Pham (nurse of Duncan); Amber Vinson (nurse of Duncan, CDC gave info was OK to fly with low grade fever)

Deceased: Thomas Duncan
Yes, but this sort of misses the point I have been making:

Patients treated in hospitals, with biocontainment facilities, with a veritable army of medical personnel dedicated to them, have a 0% mortality rate and no transmissions of the disease

Patients treated in your regular hospital down the street have a 100% mortality rate and 2 disease transmissions

As long as we keep the numbers low, Ebola doesn't threaten the US. But, for the time being, to keep numbers low *all* infected should immediately be transported to the uber hospitals and not the one down the street.
I don't think this disease would ever spread to considerable numbers in the US. I supposed it is possible the US will continue to have small outbreaks here and there but I doubt it.

The US manages to handle meningitis outbreaks, which spreads "easily" and is very deadly. It is of course very sad for those who die/get sick, but its not really a major problem.

ETA: US hospitals will get better at dealing with it. It is new to them too.
I would think the most likely way for a larger outbreak would be if an infected individual had sex with a pro/slut/bath house. Some kind of situation where lots of not so safe sex occurs. Worst case it might be 100 cases before it is figured out.

 
If someone survives Ebola, can he or she still spread the virus?

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.
Going to need them to unpack the scenario where "abstinence is not possible."
Just quoting a source. I thought it was interesting that 3 months later the virus could be spread. Not sure about the last part, except us studs have a hard time turning down ##### for three months.
Imagine catching an STD and it happened to be Ebola.

 
How many confirmed cases in US so far?
Eight, and that's enough.
HFS, for real?I haven't seen any kind of news since Friday morning.
That's all the people that have come from "over there" plus the two nurses.
Oh, OK.I thought that was like 6 new people in the general population over the weekend.
There were 4 aid workers who were cured, 3 at Emory and 1 in Nebraska.

Currently under treatment are two nurses who were infected by Duncan (who died). Also under treatment in Nebraska is the cameraman who came back from Liberia that half the thread wanted to leave in Africa to die. Emory also just released an government worker aid worker who they haven't released any info on (I say that means CIA, but who knows).

Ebola patients treated in US: 8

Patients Infected in Africa: 6

Patients infected in US: 2

Non health care workers infected in US: 0

Patients released: 4

Patients under treatment: 3

Deceased: 1

Current mortality rate of Americans treated in US: 0%.

Current mortality rate of all treated in US: 12.5%

Cured: Unidentified Aid Worker (AKA CIA), Dr. Kent Brantley , Dr. Rick Sacra, Nancy Writebol

Under treatment: Ashoka Mukpo (cameraman), Nina Pham (nurse of Duncan); Amber Vinson (nurse of Duncan, CDC gave info was OK to fly with low grade fever)

Deceased: Thomas Duncan
Yes, but this sort of misses the point I have been making:

Patients treated in hospitals, with biocontainment facilities, with a veritable army of medical personnel dedicated to them, have a 0% mortality rate and no transmissions of the disease

Patients treated in your regular hospital down the street have a 100% mortality rate and 2 disease transmissions

As long as we keep the numbers low, Ebola doesn't threaten the US. But, for the time being, to keep numbers low *all* infected should immediately be transported to the uber hospitals and not the one down the street.
I don't think this disease would ever spread to considerable numbers in the US. I supposed it is possible the US will continue to have small outbreaks here and there but I doubt it.

The US manages to handle meningitis outbreaks, which spreads "easily" and is very deadly. It is of course very sad for those who die/get sick, but its not really a major problem.

ETA: US hospitals will get better at dealing with it. It is new to them too.
I would think the most likely way for a larger outbreak would be if an infected individual had sex with a pro/slut/bath house. Some kind of situation where lots of not so safe sex occurs. Worst case it might be 100 cases before it is figured out.
sign me up

 
Stupid is growing exponentially.

Warranted or not, the Ebola scare has hit Howard Yocum Elementary School in Maple Shade, New Jersey. The school has been notifying parents that two students from an east African nation have enrolled. They were supposed to begin classes on Monday; however, after backlash from parents, those kids are now being kept out of school.

In a letter sent by the school nurse to staff members, it says the two students moved from the east African nation of Rwanda and are starting class on October 20th. Even though it's far away from the Ebola outbreak, the school was going to take precautions, by taking the African students temperature three times a day for the next 21 days. The letter wasn't sent home to parents just teachers and once word got out some wondered why they weren't notified.

"Tell us when we come into the door. Don't smile in my face and have a secret like that,” said parent Kristina Dickerson.


Just two days after the letter went to teachers, the Maple Shade School District changed course and went public with a note on the district website. They reminded parents the students are symptom-free and are not from an affected area. However, it also says the family has now elected keep their kids out of school for the next 21 days, after the threat of Ebola symptoms have passed.

Are these fears legitimate?

The children in question moved here from Rwanda, which is about 2600 miles away from the closest affected country in West Africa. That's about as close as Seattle, Washington is to Philadelphia. But for some parents it really doesn't matter.

"Anybody from that area should just stay there until all this stuff is resolved. There's nobody affected here let's just keep it that way,” said parent John Povlow.

According to the district the African students will start classes after the 21 days has passed.

"I think for another couple weeks. I don't think it would hurt, I mean you have a lot of children that are involved, so I don't think it would hurt," said parent Billy Dennison.
http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/26826190/burlington-county-students-kept-home-from-school-due-to-ebola-fears#.VEUxVB5FgTM.twitter

 
A middle-school principal in Mississippi is on leave from work this week because he recently set foot on the African continent.

The bizarre events at Hazlehurst Middle School near Jackson, Miss., illustrate how just a few diagnosed cases of Ebola in the United States have prompted bursts of panic in unexpected places.

In this case, it was triggered by the principal attending his brother's funeral.

That funeral was held in Zambia — a country in Africa, as some panicked parents correctly discerned, but one that's some 4,800 kilometres away from the Ebola-stricken area, roughly the distance from Edmonton to El Salvador.

A crush of parents descended upon the school last week and demanded to take their children home. The crowd got so big they had to free up the gym to make room for the parents seeking to sign waiver forms to get their kids out of class.

The principal was placed on vacation, and was meeting with infectious-disease experts, school superintendent John Sullivan said in an interview Monday. As far as his prognosis goes, it's so far, so good.

"He did not want to be a distraction to the learning process," said Sullivan, who declined to name the principal. "I commend him for that."

Various media reports have identified the man, but with his name spelled a number of different ways. His leave of absence will probably last the rest of this week, Sullivan said.

Footage from an area TV station last week illustrated the extent of the fear. Some parents went to the high school — a different school — to withdraw their children out of fear that the virus might be branching out between institutions.

One mother said she wasn't taking any chances — even if she didn't believe the rumours that the middle-school principal might be ill: "I don't want Ebola and I don't want my child to have Ebola," she told the local news crew.

"I don't think (it's dangerous) — but I'd rather be safe than sorry."

That unfounded rumour had a spillover effect way, way beyond the local high school. In Hazlehurst, Ga., a school district had to clarify that it was not the Hazlehurst in Mississippi.

It's not clear that the message got through. The very first comment on the Georgia district's Facebook post was: "So our principle (sic) has Ebola?"
http://www.insidehalton.com/news-story/4924512-america-s-ebola-jitters-felt-far-and-wide/

:lmao:

 
Even in Mississippi, in the very same pocket of the state as Hazlehurst Middle School, the principal who went to Zambia wasn't the only source of Ebola panic these last few days.

The train station in nearby Jackson was temporarily evacuated after a man threw up in the terminal.
The Associated Press, for its part, has said it would not report on every suspected case. But within hours of that policy being announced Friday, events forced it to report on another feared case.

A woman vomited in the parking lot outside the Pentagon, prompting a partial shutdown of the headquarters of the U.S. Department of Defence. It proved to be a false alarm.
http://www.insidehalton.com/news-story/4924512-america-s-ebola-jitters-felt-far-and-wide/

 
A middle-school principal in Mississippi is on leave from work this week because he recently set foot on the African continent.

The bizarre events at Hazlehurst Middle School near Jackson, Miss., illustrate how just a few diagnosed cases of Ebola in the United States have prompted bursts of panic in unexpected places.

In this case, it was triggered by the principal attending his brother's funeral.

That funeral was held in Zambia — a country in Africa, as some panicked parents correctly discerned, but one that's some 4,800 kilometres away from the Ebola-stricken area, roughly the distance from Edmonton to El Salvador.

A crush of parents descended upon the school last week and demanded to take their children home. The crowd got so big they had to free up the gym to make room for the parents seeking to sign waiver forms to get their kids out of class.

The principal was placed on vacation, and was meeting with infectious-disease experts, school superintendent John Sullivan said in an interview Monday. As far as his prognosis goes, it's so far, so good.

"He did not want to be a distraction to the learning process," said Sullivan, who declined to name the principal. "I commend him for that."

Various media reports have identified the man, but with his name spelled a number of different ways. His leave of absence will probably last the rest of this week, Sullivan said.

Footage from an area TV station last week illustrated the extent of the fear. Some parents went to the high school — a different school — to withdraw their children out of fear that the virus might be branching out between institutions.

One mother said she wasn't taking any chances — even if she didn't believe the rumours that the middle-school principal might be ill: "I don't want Ebola and I don't want my child to have Ebola," she told the local news crew.

"I don't think (it's dangerous) — but I'd rather be safe than sorry."

That unfounded rumour had a spillover effect way, way beyond the local high school. In Hazlehurst, Ga., a school district had to clarify that it was not the Hazlehurst in Mississippi.

It's not clear that the message got through. The very first comment on the Georgia district's Facebook post was: "So our principle (sic) has Ebola?"
http://www.insidehalton.com/news-story/4924512-america-s-ebola-jitters-felt-far-and-wide/

:lmao:
I would love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting.

 
Who responded better, the US or Nigeria?http://time.com/3522984/ebola-nigeria-who/
:lmao:
Keeping borders open. Nigeria has not closed its borders to travelers from Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, saying the move would be counterproductive. “Closing borders tends to reinforce panic and the notion of helplessness,” Shuaib said. “When you close the legal points of entry, then you potentially drive people to use illegal passages, thus compounding the problem.” Shuaib said that if public health strategies are implemented, outbreaks can be controlled, and that closing borders would only stifle commercial activities in the countries whose economies are already struggling due to Ebola.
Ron Klain must have to call in some favors. That was not subtle at all.
 
Yep....it is exactly the same.

Liberia

The WHO says the outbreak in Liberia is by far the most worrisome.

Approximately 2,500 people have died there, according to health officials, but that figure is almost certainly higher. Some families are reportedly hiding deaths to circumvent the government's mandatory cremation policy.

"The true number of deaths will likely never be known, as bodies in the notoriously poor, filthy and overcrowded West Point slum, in the capital, Monrovia, have simply been thrown into the two nearby rivers," the WHO said last month.

According to the organization, new cases are increasing exponentially and there are many more patients than beds.

Further complicating efforts there, health workers have threatened to strike over pay and unsafe working conditions.

"I don't want to strike, but the President (of Liberia) has to listen," said Moses, the doctor. "You don't want to have angry people knocking at your doors during this kind of emergency situation, so the President has to listen and act very fast."

Sierra Leone

In terms of sheer numbers, Sierra Leone is second hardest-hit by the Ebola outbreak. Close to 1,200 people have died there.

Among the dead are doctors and nurses, which slows down the country's capacity to respond.

Every district is affected, according to Doctors Without Borders, or MSF. The government has put five districts under quarantine, preventing people from leaving the area, the humanitarian organization said.

MSF also said it was seeing more orphaned children in its centers and a lack of caregivers.
There is a huge different in the healthcare available in W. Africa vs. here.Liberia has 4.4 million people and may be close to 250 doctors (and 3 dentists) before the outbreak. Today, they have about 50 doctors left. Kentucky has roughly the same population and 250 doctors per 100,000 people.

 
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Praying real hard that Ebola doesn't make it to the ocean.. We're all screwed then, think of all the coastal towns.
We're talking West Africa here. Where all the hurricanes start. Surely one of them is a carrier. I feel even more sorry for Bermuda now.
They are throwing Ebola infected bodies into rivers in Nigeria, documented by the World Health Organization. The virus does not survive long in water, but it still survives for several minutes.
Nigeria was just declared Ebola free you dimwit
Per the BBC.And don't overlook this nugget:

European countries have committed more than 500m euros (£400m; $600m) but the UK is pressing to double that amount.
A very small percentage of the medical budget (<15%) was actually spent on healthcare before the outbreak. Sadly, probably the same is true with all the new foreign aid.
 
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That would never happen.
Hang on -- looking around now to establish that Nigeria's Patient Zero came in on a flight with full-blown symptoms. Not taking that as fact quite yet.
I didn't do much searching but this was reported on a reasonably reputable site.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-plane-travel-scare-has-officials-on-edge/

Still, witnesses say Sawyer, a 40-year-old Liberian Finance Ministry employee en route to a conference in Nigeria, was vomiting and had diarrhea aboard at least one of his flights with some 50 other passengers aboard. Ebola can be contracted from traces of feces or vomit, experts say.
That guy broke quarantine on purpose. He got a buddy to approve his Visa so he could get better care in Nigeria.

 
Exponential means, at the very least, a number multiplied by itself, no?
Exponential growth results when there is a constant rate of growth. It is just like compounding interest. It starts off slower, but each time period the actual growth increases eventhough the rate of growth is constant. It does not matter if the growth is only 1,000 for one month, it can still be exponential. But the next month the growth will be more. People here seem to be hung up that it has to go up by a square of itself to be exponential, but that is simply not the case.
Apple Jack, remember the time you bought a new stock and the price dropped 50% every few weeks? Jon means the opposite of that.
 

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