Eddie Royal - Overrated? (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

Okay, I'll just come out and say what I'm thinking these days.

Eddie Royal and Jay Cutler are overrated right now.

This applies to what I'm seeing in trade activity for Royal (just insane what he is fetching right now, IMHO).

Here me out.

First of all, as many of you might already know, I only follow a few college teams - but one of them is Virginia Tech. That led me down the path of some great, great rookies the past 1-2 years including Royal. I love what the kid can do. But right now, everyone is expecting the world from him and upside to come.

Sorry, I don't think it will.

Just look at the facts:

Denver threw a TON last year. Cutler threw over 600 times last year, well over 35 times a game. Only Drew Brees had more attempts in 2008. Do you have any idea how many that is? Well, the list of players with over 600 pass attempts since 1960 stops after 20 entries - that under one per year. "But we're in the passing era", you might say. Okay - since 2002 only 8 QBs have reached 600 attempts - or just over one per year.
Brandon Marshall missed one game and Tony Scheffler missed two. Minor points, certainly - but Eddie Royal is 2nd or 3rd option if both are healthy.
Denver ran the ball less than 320 times last year (RBs). This is what happens when you have to throw all the time. Do you really expect the Broncos not to try and get more balance in 2009 and beyond?
Denver's defense was terrible last year. They gave up 448 points, third worst behind Detroit and the Rams. They had to throw and throw and throw some more to try and keep up and win 37-34 type games.
Okay - enough of the circumstantial evidence - what's wrong with Eddie Royal himself? Again, I like him, but his numbers were well above average in catch-to-target numbers. He had 129 targets and snagged 91. That's over 70% efficiency, which speaks well of his hands (as I mentioned earlier) but the odds are against him to repeat that number. Only 3 WRs had at least 80 targets and over 70% catch efficiency - Royal, Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker. Only Boldin topped 11 yards per catch and he only did it by 0.7 yards. Sure there's a balance between YPC and reception percentage (guys that run deep catch fewer passes and vice versa) but that tells you the type of receiver that Royal really is - a short catch guy like Wes Welker in that scheme. Remember that he caught 91 balls but for only 980 yards.
Speaking of schemes, there's a new coaching staff in Denver. The Broncos could throw a ton again with Josh McDaniel coming from New England, but there is no guarantee.
Bottom line for me is that while I like Royal, I'd struggle to justify him being any higher than a Top 15 wideout next year. He's the 2nd target on the team for certain and Denver had to throw to compete more often than not with limitations at RB and a weak defense. He isn't a deep route guy and he had an inordinate number of targets for a WR2 and caught more than his fair share of those chances - but for under 11 yards each on average.Just be forewarned before going hard after Eddie Royal for your team and temper your expectations. 2008 might have been his peak year for the next 2-3 seasons, if not longer.

As for Cutler - the same reasoning holds true to his valuation. Don't expect a repeat of 2008 numbers if Denver tries to improve. The team may get better if Cutler does less in 09 and beyond.

 

[comfortably numb]

ppr = :money:

Denver will try to balance the offense.

Key word being try.

If he nets 80 receptions, I will be satisfied.

With 80 receptions, there is a chance he can match his numbers from 08, if he is able to get in the endzone more then the 5 times he got in last year.

Now with Daniels as the HC, Royal will more so be compared to Welker. Which is a fair comparison.

Being #2 on a good passing team can land you in the top 10 easily, as we have seen in the past (Wayne, Housh, Easy Ed etc...)

I can see the receptions go down, but not to hard for the TD's to go up (from 5).

The upside is there, the targets will be there, the DC will be on Marshall and as you mentioned "the hands".

I will take my chances any day with a WR that has good hands, as opposed to speed, strength, or height.

Hands and route running gains instant confidence from your QB.

I can see 81 rec, 1100 yds 8 TD.

Not a STUD, but a great #2/3 WR on any team that should provide consistent numbers each week.

 

[Franchise Playa]

ppr = :moneyenver will try to balance the offense.Key word being try.If he nets 80 receptions, I will be satisfied.With 80 receptions, there is a chance he can match his numbers from 08, if he is able to get in the endzone more then the 5 times he got in last year.Now with Daniels as the HC, Royal will more so be compared to Welker. Which is a fair comparison.Being #2 on a good passing team can land you in the top 10 easily, as we have seen in the past (Wayne, Housh, Easy Ed etc...)I can see the receptions go down, but not to hard for the TD's to go up (from 5).The upside is there, the targets will be there, the DC will be on Marshall and as you mentioned "the hands".I will take my chances any day with a WR that has good hands, as opposed to speed, strength, or height.Hands and route running gains instant confidence from your QB.I can see 81 rec, 1100 yds 8 TD.Not a STUD, but a great #2/3 WR on any team that should provide consistent numbers each week.

I can see a healthy Sheffler eating into that hopeful 81 catches (if he is healthy). I actually do see them running a lot more as well.

 

[awesomeness]

ppr = :money:

Denver will try to balance the offense.

Key word being try.

If he nets 80 receptions, I will be satisfied.

With 80 receptions, there is a chance he can match his numbers from 08, if he is able to get in the endzone more then the 5 times he got in last year.

Now with Daniels as the HC, Royal will more so be compared to Welker. Which is a fair comparison.

Being #2 on a good passing team can land you in the top 10 easily, as we have seen in the past (Wayne, Housh, Easy Ed etc...)

I can see the receptions go down, but not to hard for the TD's to go up (from 5).

The upside is there, the targets will be there, the DC will be on Marshall and as you mentioned "the hands".

I will take my chances any day with a WR that has good hands, as opposed to speed, strength, or height.

Hands and route running gains instant confidence from your QB.

I can see 81 rec, 1100 yds 8 TD.

Not a STUD, but a great #2/3 WR on any team that should provide consistent numbers each week.

Those stats would have him ranked as the 9th WR in .5PR and the 11th WR in in PPR. I'd say that is more like a WR1/2 than 2/3.

 

[ninerfan]

Just dealt him for Pierre Thomas, Breaston, and Dallas Clark. I didn't get anything crazy like the 1.01 rookie pick but I like the value I received.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I agree with your premise that its likely that Denver won't throw quite as much going forward. However, it seems to me that Royal just caught the second most passes ever by a rookie. He's talented. Having said that, I wouldn't be trading one of the top 12 dynasty WRs straight up for him. I think his value lies as a solid #2 WR right now. i.e. if you gave up Roddy White straight up to get him, you gave up too much. Santonio Holmes? You helped your team. MHO.

 

[thatguy]

I think we'll see Royal targeted more deep next season. He has the speed to stretch the field, I'm not sure why Denver didn't take advantage of that more in '08. I think his YPR will be quite a bit higher next season.

 

[LBH]

I don't see any reason at all that he can't be a more explosive version of Welker in that offense

 

[FUBAR]

ppr = :money:

Denver will try to balance the offense.

Key word being try.

If he nets 80 receptions, I will be satisfied.

With 80 receptions, there is a chance he can match his numbers from 08, if he is able to get in the endzone more then the 5 times he got in last year.

Now with Daniels as the HC, Royal will more so be compared to Welker. Which is a fair comparison.

Being #2 on a good passing team can land you in the top 10 easily, as we have seen in the past (Wayne, Housh, Easy Ed etc...)

I can see the receptions go down, but not to hard for the TD's to go up (from 5).

The upside is there, the targets will be there, the DC will be on Marshall and as you mentioned "the hands".

I will take my chances any day with a WR that has good hands, as opposed to speed, strength, or height.

Hands and route running gains instant confidence from your QB.

I can see 81 rec, 1100 yds 8 TD.

Not a STUD, but a great #2/3 WR on any team that should provide consistent numbers each week.

Those stats would have him ranked as the 9th WR in .5PR and the 11th WR in in PPR. I'd say that is more like a WR1/2 than 2/3.

Those stats are very possible, but Jeff's point that Royal is overvalued by many remains. He's ranked as the #7 player by one guy here, he's a top 10 WR for many more. He's only had one year in and IMO, those players tend to be overrated. We automatically expect them to improve, but that doesn't always happen. I'd be surprised if he hits more than a per game average of 5/60/.5

 

[JPeso]

Those stats are very possible, but Jeff's point that Royal is overvalued by many remains. He's ranked as the #7 player by one guy here, he's a top 10 WR for many more. He's only had one year in and IMO, those players tend to be overrated. We automatically expect them to improve, but that doesn't always happen.

Royal is the crispest route-runner I have ever seen. No, I'm not exaggerating. He can get open against any "shut down" corner in the league, essentially uncoverable. Not only is he gifted athletically, but he also has his head on straight. He is a SMART player. He mastered the playbook before training camp, tried to build a repore with his teammates, and showed from Day 1 that he was willing to do what it takes to be a threat in this league. The reports early on about him mastering the playbook before training camp, working his tail off, paid off when week 1 he torched anyone (yes, Aso got his too) on Monday Night Football. I don't necessarily expect a huge uptick in numbers at any point in career. I think you will see a consistent 240-260 in PPR for 10+ years.

 

[fruity pebbles]

You mentioned that Marshall missed a game and Scheffler two but failed to mention that Royal himself missed a full game and most of another. He put up the numbers he did in essentially 14 games.

I've probably got him in the 10-15 range for WRs in terms of dynasty value. But how do you rank him behind TJ Housh and Chad Johnson?

 

[comfortably numb]

ppr = :money:

Denver will try to balance the offense.

Key word being try.

If he nets 80 receptions, I will be satisfied.

With 80 receptions, there is a chance he can match his numbers from 08, if he is able to get in the endzone more then the 5 times he got in last year.

Now with Daniels as the HC, Royal will more so be compared to Welker. Which is a fair comparison.

Being #2 on a good passing team can land you in the top 10 easily, as we have seen in the past (Wayne, Housh, Easy Ed etc...)

I can see the receptions go down, but not to hard for the TD's to go up (from 5).

The upside is there, the targets will be there, the DC will be on Marshall and as you mentioned "the hands".

I will take my chances any day with a WR that has good hands, as opposed to speed, strength, or height.

Hands and route running gains instant confidence from your QB.

I can see 81 rec, 1100 yds 8 TD.

Not a STUD, but a great #2/3 WR on any team that should provide consistent numbers each week.

Those stats would have him ranked as the 9th WR in .5PR and the 11th WR in in PPR. I'd say that is more like a WR1/2 than 2/3.

Those stats are very possible, but Jeff's point that Royal is overvalued by many remains. He's ranked as the #7 player by one guy here, he's a top 10 WR for many more. He's only had one year in and IMO, those players tend to be overrated. We automatically expect them to improve, but that doesn't always happen. I'd be surprised if he hits more than a per game average of 5/60/.5

You are right, I can buy the overvalued part, and 1 strong season can make most players over rated.I acquired Eddie last year for a playoff push.

I sent Braylon for royal and a mid 2nd rd pick, in a 1PPR league.

I'm still quite happy with the deal.

 

[Buckna]

One potential item I didn't see mentioned that people seem to be forgetting about after it being all we could talk about last offseason: what happens if Marshall has another run-in with the law?

 

[duece2626]

He could very well top over 100 receptions this year.

 

[jwb]

If you have tried to trade for a stud WR lately (in a league of FBG's anyway), you'll notice that people have truly caught on to the fact that WR's - especially elite, consistent WR's - really, really matter in PPR. WR value is up almost across the board in PPR leagues - it's almost impossible to get one of the few big WR1's. In most of my leagues, you'd have an easier time getting ADP than Fitz or Calvin. So if you see a young WR who seems like he's going to join that elite group, well, his value skyrockets.

Plus, it's not just hype - he passes the eye test. Royal, to me, has the looks of a consistent star. Is he worth the 1.1 (which, going by the AC forum, is what he's been commanding)? Well, I think I'd rather have Royal right now than Crabtree (putting a face to the 1.1 definitely makes a difference when you think of value)

I traded Welker for Royal straight up after seeing that first Mon night game - he just blew me away with his route running and skillset. Very happy w/ that trade.

 

[JPeso]

I traded Welker for Royal straight up after seeing that first Mon night game - he just blew me away with his route running and skillset. Very happy w/ that trade.

At the time of that trade, I was already in love with Royal, but felt Royal's ceiling was what Welker did on a weekly basis. I told the other owner to take Welker, due to the fact that getting a PPR stud after one game of work was a low-risk move for him. It paid off for you in the long run, and cheers with going with your instinct. Luckily it wasn't as bad as moving Royal for a guy like Roy Williams.

 

[JPeso]

He could very well top over 100 receptions this year.

And the next, and the next, etc. He is posed for a floor of 85 receptions per year (barring injury, of course), with a ceiling of roughly 110. He will be a rock-solid PPR WR2 for years to come, and allow owners a bit more lee-way at WR3 with more boom-or-bust type players.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

He could very well top over 100 receptions this year.

And the next, and the next, etc. He is posed for a floor of 85 receptions per year (barring injury, of course), with a ceiling of roughly 110. He will be a rock-solid PPR WR2 for years to come, and allow owners a bit more lee-way at WR3 with more boom-or-bust type players.

I don't think it is very much of a limb, but I'll say right now that I do not believe that Royal gets 100 catches next year. That's an extremely high number - only 14 players topped 100 in the past four years.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

Really? Damn, I must live in fantasyland.

 

[Couch Potato]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

I agree. Regression is the more likely case. The defense won't always be 30th in the league in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed. As good as the offense was, Denver GAVE UP 78 more points than they scored, 25th in the league. And, the run game won't be abandoned every year like it was in 2008 with all the injuries. Winning football just isn't played the way Denver played in 2008, and things will settle down and be more balanced. When that happens, Royal will fall back to earth. It was special situation in 2008 that likely will not be repeated in 2009 and beyond.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

Really? Damn, I must live in fantasyland.

You must. Cause in the ppr leagues i play in guys like Jennings, Andre, Fitz, Calvin etc command multiple high 1sts if they're traded at all.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

Really? Damn, I must live in fantasyland.

You must. Cause in the ppr leagues i play in guys like Jennings, Andre, Fitz, Calvin etc command multiple high 1sts if they're traded at all.

Of course you can't get guys like Jennings, AJ, Fitz or Calvin Johnson for the 1.01, but there are other mid RB #1 and mid WR #1 that are not worth the 1.01, let alone low WR1 or high WR2 as you stated.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

Really? Damn, I must live in fantasyland.

You must. Cause in the ppr leagues i play in guys like Jennings, Andre, Fitz, Calvin etc command multiple high 1sts if they're traded at all.

Of course you can't get guys like Jennings, AJ, Fitz or Calvin Johnson for the 1.01, but there are other mid RB #1 and mid WR #1 that are not worth the 1.01, let alone low WR1 or high WR2 as you stated.

Who? Which WRs are worth more than Royal who you can get for the 1.01? Ive seen Bowe traded for the 1.01 whom i would consider in the Royal ballpark. Nobody who's still young and ranked significantly higher.

 

[EBF]

Love him. Have him on several of my teams and wouldn't trade him at his current value. I have total faith in his talent. He might not be Steve Smith, but he should have a long career and yield useful FF production for many, many years.

I think you're placing too much emphasis on situational factors. Yea, maybe his reception numbers will decline, but that doesn't mean he's all downside. One thing you didn't mention is his obscenely low yards-per-catch average. He has 4.3 speed and big play potential. If the new regime in Denver decides to unleash him, he could easily raise his yards-per-catch by 3-4 yards and hit several additional long TDs. Those added yards and touchdowns would probably make up for any drop in receptions.

The bottom line for me is that he's an elite talent who should contribute to FF teams indefinitely. He has a lot of value because you can put him in your WR2 or WR3 spot and forget about addressing that position for the next 5-8 years.

 

[Patoons]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

 

[TheFanatic]

Just dealt him for Pierre Thomas, Breaston, and Dallas Clark. I didn't get anything crazy like the 1.01 rookie pick but I like the value I received.

That would've been me. I was offered the 1.2 straight up for him while negotiating with the guy who had offered me the 1.3 and a player for Royal. The owner of the 1.1 offered me the top pick for Royal and an upgrade at TE. I took it. That being said that owner still has the 1.3 and the 1.4 and is in prime shape to completely rebuild that team into a contender this year. Royal is young and this league is a pure keeper so Royal could be on that team for 10 years....Royal has incredible hands and tore it up as a rookie. Very few guys do that in the NFL at the WR position. I can think of only 1 guy that did that and then struggled afterward. Everyone else that tore it up as a rookie WR has gone on to a great career unless there is another guy I can't remember....

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

Link to that transaction?

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

Link to that transaction?

Link to what? Owner offered me the 1.01 for Welker in a ppr and i said no. Is that hard to believe?

 

[Ron_Mexico]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

Link to that transaction?

Link to what? Owner offered me the 1.01 for Welker in a ppr and i said no. Is that hard to believe?

yes

 

[awesomeness]

Just dealt him for Pierre Thomas, Breaston, and Dallas Clark. I didn't get anything crazy like the 1.01 rookie pick but I like the value I received.

That would've been me. I was offered the 1.2 straight up for him while negotiating with the guy who had offered me the 1.3 and a player for Royal. The owner of the 1.1 offered me the top pick for Royal and an upgrade at TE. I took it. That being said that owner still has the 1.3 and the 1.4 and is in prime shape to completely rebuild that team into a contender this year. Royal is young and this league is a pure keeper so Royal could be on that team for 10 years....Royal has incredible hands and tore it up as a rookie. Very few guys do that in the NFL at the WR position. I can think of only 1 guy that did that and then struggled afterward. Everyone else that tore it up as a rookie WR has gone on to a great career unless there is another guy I can't remember....

Michael Clayton is gonna rebound, just gotta be patient......... real patient.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

Link to that transaction?

Link to what? Owner offered me the 1.01 for Welker in a ppr and i said no. Is that hard to believe?

I would like to see a link to the transaction where you turned it down.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

Link to that transaction?

Link to what? Owner offered me the 1.01 for Welker in a ppr and i said no. Is that hard to believe?

yes

Don't play in many PPR leagues i take it. Only 5 WRs have outscored Welker the past two years. Five RBs outscored him this year and only 2 outscored him last year. Didn't think twice about rejecting the offer.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

High WR2 sounds about right to me -- just around Welker's spot. Welker's just got fewer TDs.

I agree. And i was offered the 1.01 for Welker just the other day in a ppr league and turned it down.

Link to that transaction?

Link to what? Owner offered me the 1.01 for Welker in a ppr and i said no. Is that hard to believe?

I would like to see a link to the transaction where you turned it down.

i'm not going through my aim records, sorry.

 

[FUBAR]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

Really? Damn, I must live in fantasyland.

You must. Cause in the ppr leagues i play in guys like Jennings, Andre, Fitz, Calvin etc command multiple high 1sts if they're traded at all.

Of course you can't get guys like Jennings, AJ, Fitz or Calvin Johnson for the 1.01, but there are other mid RB #1 and mid WR #1 that are not worth the 1.01, let alone low WR1 or high WR2 as you stated.

Who? Which WRs are worth more than Royal who you can get for the 1.01? Ive seen Bowe traded for the 1.01 whom i would consider in the Royal ballpark. Nobody who's still young and ranked significantly higher.

Doesn't mid WR1 mean in the 4-8 range? So Fitz, AJ, and Calvin are above that. Assuming you're putting a premium on youth - guys like Roddy White, Jennings, Marshall, and Boldin would be the mid WR1s, right? Considering many here are saying they'd take Crabtree 1.01, they must think Crabtree > these 4?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Just dealt him for Pierre Thomas, Breaston, and Dallas Clark. I didn't get anything crazy like the 1.01 rookie pick but I like the value I received.

That would've been me. I was offered the 1.2 straight up for him while negotiating with the guy who had offered me the 1.3 and a player for Royal. The owner of the 1.1 offered me the top pick for Royal and an upgrade at TE. I took it. That being said that owner still has the 1.3 and the 1.4 and is in prime shape to completely rebuild that team into a contender this year. Royal is young and this league is a pure keeper so Royal could be on that team for 10 years....Royal has incredible hands and tore it up as a rookie. Very few guys do that in the NFL at the WR position. I can think of only 1 guy that did that and then struggled afterward. Everyone else that tore it up as a rookie WR has gone on to a great career unless there is another guy I can't remember....

What's Braylon Edwards value now compared to 2 seasons ago?

 

[fruity pebbles]

My original point still stands - I think that people are expecting more out of Eddie Royal next year (and beyond) and are only looking at the upside. There's plenty of reason to expect some downslide as well. Could those balance out? Certainly - which would put him back to where he was this year - WR20 in non-PPR, WR14 in PPR.

I think a high WR2 is a fair value, but that's not what I'm seeing him being traded as of late.

Really? In a ppr league a young low WR1- high WR2 is about all your going to get for the 1.01.

Really? Damn, I must live in fantasyland.

You must. Cause in the ppr leagues i play in guys like Jennings, Andre, Fitz, Calvin etc command multiple high 1sts if they're traded at all.

Of course you can't get guys like Jennings, AJ, Fitz or Calvin Johnson for the 1.01, but there are other mid RB #1 and mid WR #1 that are not worth the 1.01, let alone low WR1 or high WR2 as you stated.

Who? Which WRs are worth more than Royal who you can get for the 1.01? Ive seen Bowe traded for the 1.01 whom i would consider in the Royal ballpark. Nobody who's still young and ranked significantly higher.

Doesn't mid WR1 mean in the 4-8 range? So Fitz, AJ, and Calvin are above that. Assuming you're putting a premium on youth - guys like Roddy White, Jennings, Marshall, and Boldin would be the mid WR1s, right? Considering many here are saying they'd take Crabtree 1.01, they must think Crabtree > these 4?

thats what i'm gathering. would like to see someone get one of those four for the 1.01 in a PPR league from an owner who isnt clueless

 

[JPeso]

What's Braylon Edwards value now compared to 2 seasons ago?

Trade value or actual value?Either way, a bad comparison as Braylon had a huge year with inflated TD numbers. These two are entirely players and have zero similarities in their games. Braylon is not the PPR threat like Royal, but will have a better chance of notching 300 in a given year if he gets solid QB play and hangs on the football. He is kind of WR3 I'd like if I know Royal is my #2 and I know what I am going to get from him.

 

[JPeso]

Doesn't mid WR1 mean in the 4-8 range? So Fitz, AJ, and Calvin are above that. Assuming you're putting a premium on youth - guys like Roddy White, Jennings, Marshall, and Boldin would be the mid WR1s, right? Considering many here are saying they'd take Crabtree 1.01, they must think Crabtree > these 4?

thats what i'm gathering. would like to see someone get one of those four for the 1.01 in a PPR league from an owner who isnt clueless

I have offered 1.1 and 1.3 for Marshall/Jennings in different leagues and been rejected. Luckily, in one league, an owner felt Crabtree>Jennings, so he took 1.1 alone for Jennings. Admittedly, most of my leaguemates thought the other guy a schmuck. 1.1 for stud WR is not the norm in many of my leagues.Edit to add, not JUST the 1.1, or the 1.3, but both picks.

 

[Buckna]

Just dealt him for Pierre Thomas, Breaston, and Dallas Clark. I didn't get anything crazy like the 1.01 rookie pick but I like the value I received.

That would've been me. I was offered the 1.2 straight up for him while negotiating with the guy who had offered me the 1.3 and a player for Royal. The owner of the 1.1 offered me the top pick for Royal and an upgrade at TE. I took it. That being said that owner still has the 1.3 and the 1.4 and is in prime shape to completely rebuild that team into a contender this year. Royal is young and this league is a pure keeper so Royal could be on that team for 10 years....Royal has incredible hands and tore it up as a rookie. Very few guys do that in the NFL at the WR position. I can think of only 1 guy that did that and then struggled afterward. Everyone else that tore it up as a rookie WR has gone on to a great career unless there is another guy I can't remember....

What's Braylon Edwards value now compared to 2 seasons ago?

Saw him moved for Jonathon Stewart + 1.12 in a PPR recently. So I'd say still pretty high.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Denver throwing less does not mean Royal (or Marshall or Cutler) loses value. Royal was very raw this year, rarely running routes and acting more as a WR safety valve. That's why his YPC was so low. McDaniels is a big plus here, hard to call him an unknown when we saw NEs offense operate with hyperefficiency in the passing game whether it was Cassel or Brady back there. Welker was able to get 150 targets this year even though the team only threw 533 times. I don't know why we should think Royal "isn't a deep route guy" when he clearly has the deep speed to separate and he averaged about 15 yards a catch during his career at Virginia Tech.

One of Jeff's assertions (that some overvalue Royal - specifically as a WR1 instead of a WR2) is true, but there's a segment of the FF community that overvalues every player. Otherwise, I disagree with the opinion that Royal lacks "upside to come" and that last year might be his ceiling for the next 2-3 years or more. He only has to build on 980 yards and 5 TDs, and he was a one-dimensional player this year due to lack of experience in a pro style passing game. Cecil covers the Broncos, and he often comments that Royal has clearly not learned to recognize coverages and still has a long way to grow into the pro game - sounds like upside to me.

It sounds like Jeff is really making an argument that Denver will pass less this year and Royal will suffer due to this drop, because, as he himself says, over 600 pass attempts is a rare thing - but the talent on the offensive side in Denver + McDaniels success with a similar cast in NE seems to indicate to me that Denver's passing offense can be just as productive on less attempts. The expected decrease in passing attempts and Royal's low YPC aren't as compelling to me as Royal and the offense's likely growth in 2009 on the opposite side. If we hear that Royal isn't working hard in the offseason or hasn't shown progress in camp, then I'd be worried, because that's about the only way other than injury that Royal stalls out at his 2008 numbers.

 

[Couch Potato]

To follow up on my post #22, Denver threw 620 passes in 2008, completing 386 for 62.3%. The 620 passes is a very high number and was only topped by the Saints and Cardinals in 2008, only the Saints in 2007 (Den had 515), only the Packers in 2006 (Den had 454), the Cardinals and Packers in 2005 (Den had 465).

Royal caught 91 balls on 129 targets (70.5%) for just a 10.8 YPC. Among WRs with at least 75 targets, only Welker, A Gonzalez, Bess, and Boldin had a greater catch/target %. Royal's high catch % and low YPC was in part due to RB receiving options Selvin Young and Michael Pittman being out of commission much of the time, and the RBs as a whole grabbing only 43 balls total. In 2007 the RBs caught 57 passes, in 2006 it was 63 passes, in 2005 it was 58 passes. And these were in years with a lot fewer passes thrown overall. So, in 2008 Royal was the outlet dump off guy.

I'll make a few assumptions and see where it ends up.

#1) Denver throws 586 balls in 2009 instead of 620.

To get this number, I took the team with the 5th most pass attempts in each of the last 4 years (2005-2008) and averaged them: (585+586+580+594)/4=586.25. I think a ranking of 5th in pass attempts is generous going forward.

#2) Denver WRs get targeted on 63% of all passes.

WRs had 423 targets or 68.2% of all passes in 2008, 320 targets or 62.1% of all passes in 2007, 285 targets or 62.8% of all passes in 2006, 269 targets or 57.8% of all passes in 2005. As stated above, I think 2008 was an aberration due to injuries at other positions that would normally get a higher % of targets.

#3) Royal's targets as % of Denver WR targets = 33%

For comparison, it was 129/423=30.5% in 2008 and the Denver WR2 has had the following % of all WR targets previously: 71/320=22.2% in 2007, 94/285=33.0% in 2006, and 88/269=32.7% in 2005.

#4) Royal's catch % falls to a more normal (but still high in WR terms) 65%. I actually think it'll be lower than that (60-62%), but never mind.

With all that, Royal would catch 80 passes. With just a typical YPC of 13.5, he'd have 1,080 yards. So, 11 fewer catches but 100 more yards than in 2008. More valuable in 2009 than 2008 in non-PPR leagues, about the same in PPR leagues (assuming the same 5 TDs, which is low for a guy with that many receptions).

586 x 63% = 369 pass attempts to WRs

369 x 33% = 123 targets for Royal

123 x 65% = 80.0 completions to Royal.

I think I have been reasonable to generous in my assumptions.

His receptions could fall to 557 total attempts (avg 8th each yr) x 62% to WRs x 30% to Royal x 62% catch/targets = 64 completions to Royal. I'd put this at his floor.

I just don't see 100 receptions for Royal as long as Marshall continues to be target as heavily as he is.

 

[Tau837]

To follow up on my post #22, Denver threw 620 passes in 2008, completing 386 for 62.3%. The 620 passes is a very high number and was only topped by the Saints and Cardinals in 2008, only the Saints in 2007 (Den had 515), only the Packers in 2006 (Den had 454), the Cardinals and Packers in 2005 (Den had 465).

Royal caught 91 balls on 129 targets (70.5%) for just a 10.8 YPC. Among WRs with at least 75 targets, only Welker, A Gonzalez, Bess, and Boldin had a greater catch/target %. Royal's high catch % and low YPC was in part due to RB receiving options Selvin Young and Michael Pittman being out of commission much of the time, and the RBs as a whole grabbing only 43 balls total. In 2007 the RBs caught 57 passes, in 2006 it was 63 passes, in 2005 it was 58 passes. And these were in years with a lot fewer passes thrown overall. So, in 2008 Royal was the outlet dump off guy.

I'll make a few assumptions and see where it ends up.

#1) Denver throws 586 balls in 2009 instead of 620.

To get this number, I took the team with the 5th most pass attempts in each of the last 4 years (2005-2008) and averaged them: (585+586+580+594)/4=586.25. I think a ranking of 5th in pass attempts is generous going forward.

#2) Denver WRs get targeted on 63% of all passes.

WRs had 423 targets or 68.2% of all passes in 2008, 320 targets or 62.1% of all passes in 2007, 285 targets or 62.8% of all passes in 2006, 269 targets or 57.8% of all passes in 2005. As stated above, I think 2008 was an aberration due to injuries at other positions that would normally get a higher % of targets.

#3) Royal's targets as % of Denver WR targets = 33%

For comparison, it was 129/423=30.5% in 2008 and the Denver WR2 has had the following % of all WR targets previously: 71/320=22.2% in 2007, 94/285=33.0% in 2006, and 88/269=32.7% in 2005.

#4) Royal's catch % falls to a more normal (but still high in WR terms) 65%. I actually think it'll be lower than that (60-62%), but never mind.

With all that, Royal would catch 80 passes. With just a typical YPC of 13.5, he'd have 1,080 yards. So, 11 fewer catches but 100 more yards than in 2008. More valuable in 2009 than 2008 in non-PPR leagues, about the same in PPR leagues (assuming the same 5 TDs, which is low for a guy with that many receptions).

586 x 63% = 369 pass attempts to WRs

369 x 33% = 123 targets for Royal

123 x 65% = 80.0 completions to Royal.

I think I have been reasonable to generous in my assumptions.

His receptions could fall to 557 total attempts (avg 8th each yr) x 62% to WRs x 30% to Royal x 62% catch/targets = 64 completions to Royal. I'd put this at his floor.

I just don't see 100 receptions for Royal as long as Marshall continues to be target as heavily as he is.

 

[JPeso]

Are most opponents of Royal as a WR2 assuming that he has reached his ceiling?

 

[FUBAR]

What's Braylon Edwards value now compared to 2 seasons ago?

Trade value or actual value?Either way, a bad comparison as Braylon had a huge year with inflated TD numbers. These two are entirely players and have zero similarities in their games. Braylon is not the PPR threat like Royal, but will have a better chance of notching 300 in a given year if he gets solid QB play and hangs on the football. He is kind of WR3 I'd like if I know Royal is my #2 and I know what I am going to get from him.

WR3? Sure, I'd love him as a WR3 and Randy Moss as my WR4. Just looking at the WSL mocks, in which I think Braylon will be lesser valued than in a dynasty, Braylon was drafted as:

W1: WR20

W2: WR17

W3: WR16

W4: WR20 (by me)

I understand what you're saying though, there's a few players with high upside and risk who are drafted in the 25-36 range (granted, that's a 16 team draft) whom I'd pair Royal with. Guys like Holmes, Roy, or Crabtree.

ETA: and the original point of comparing Royal to Edwards IMO remains, even if there's a logical argument against the comparison. It's simply the one good year ~ higher expectations line.

 

[FUBAR]

Are most opponents of Royal as a WR2 assuming that he has reached his ceiling?

Who's opposing his being a WR2?

 

[Couch Potato]

He could very well top over 100 receptions this year.

And the next, and the next, etc. He is posed for a floor of 85 receptions per year (barring injury, of course), with a ceiling of roughly 110. He will be a rock-solid PPR WR2 for years to come, and allow owners a bit more lee-way at WR3 with more boom-or-bust type players.

JPeso, I think this is what I was disagreeing with, the huge catch predictions, not whether he's reached his talent ceiling. Of course he will become a better WR over time, but that doesn't mean it will translate into more catches. His improvement may translate into a higher YPC and more scores, but as I showed above, his catch total IMO was abnormally high for a guy lining up opposite a bona fide WR1 like Marshall. It's just unusual for teams to pass as many times as DEN did in 2008 without involving the RBs more, and 620 passes are usually a sign of imbalance that teams look to correct, not continue. As defense improves, less passing is needed / wanted. When 7 RBs don't end up on IR, more running happens.

Royal is a fine WR. However, circumstances as much as talent often dictate stats . I think circumstances will not again dictate 90+ receptions in 2009. Again, though, he may make up for that in extra YPC and TDs.

 

[thatguy]

I think Royal could definitely approach 90 receptions again. I'm not sure why anyone thinks Scheffler will eat into his targets - it's not like TE's were heavily involved in the Pats offense. Scheffler will get his, but if anything I think McD running things is a potential negative for him. Ideally I'd like to see Marshall's targets regress a bit to 150 or so, which will hopefully lead to a more balanced passing attack. I could easily see Royal getting 140 or so targets. I think comparing Royal to Welker is apt, but as I mentioned earlier, I think Royal can be a very good deep threat. He has that added dimension that Welker never did. So, while he'll probably get a lot of the underneathe move-the-chains type receptions again, I wouldn't be surprised to see a handful of long receptions, at least a few of which will go for 6. His YPR should definitely increase to 13+ and I see him getting at least 5 TD's, probably closer to 7 or 8. Let's also not forget that he is very good on end arounds and trick plays as he netted over 100 rushing yards to go with his 980 receiving yards.

My very early predictions would be 85 rec., 1150 yards, 7 TDs.