Edge (1 Viewer)

[OneEastRiver]

So everyone is down on Edge this year compared to prior years. Understandable given the poor O-line in AZ, and the Cards track record of rushing the ball in recent years.

However, given Edge's talent and the fact that the WR's will be drawing a lot of attention from opposing D's, what do you think is the worst case scenario for Edge assuming he is healthy all year?

Is it unreasonable to assume he will get close to 300 carries? If we dock his career avg ypc down to about 4.0 (to compensate for the O-line), we come up with roughly 1200-1300 yards on the ground along with anywhere from 8-12 TDs? Then factor in 30+ receptions and receiving yardage, and I come to the conclusion that RB10 or so is a worst case scenario for him. More likely, I see him somewhere around RB5 to RB8 not far from where he ranked at Indy. However, in many drafts he is slipping to late 1st and early 2nd round.

If you are passing on Edge this year, tell me why you are not confident he will be a solid RB1 this year.

 

[Capt Hook]

So everyone is down on Edge this year compared to prior years. Understandable given the poor O-line in AZ, and the Cards track record of rushing the ball in recent years. However, given Edge's talent and the fact that the WR's will be drawing a lot of attention from opposing D's, what do you think is the worst case scenario for Edge assuming he is healthy all year?Is it unreasonable to assume he will get close to 300 carries? If we dock his career avg ypc down to about 4.0 (to compensate for the O-line), we come up with roughly 1200-1300 yards on the ground along with anywhere from 8-12 TDs? Then factor in 30+ receptions and receiving yardage, and I come to the conclusion that RB10 or so is a worst case scenario for him. More likely, I see him somewhere around RB5 to RB8 not far from where he ranked at Indy. However, in many drafts he is slipping to late 1st and early 2nd round.If you are passing on Edge this year, tell me why you are not confident he will be a solid RB1 this year.

How can you possibly give him 4.0 YPC behind the AZ Oline? LOOK at their numbers from last year.Also, their defense is not as good as people think it is, especially if Dansby can't play (and in addition is very thin), so they will be playing from behind a lot - that does not give the ground game extra chances. The Oline is pretty good at pass blocking, and Edge will help with that - so he may have more receptions - in a PPR league that will help even if many of those are just dump offs for little yardage.I currently have him ranked (on another site) at RB11 and that is just because I think he is a very good back. BUT there is a limit - at least right now - to what seems reasonable this year on the Cardinals.

 

[Tiger Fan]

In a PPR league if you add Arrington and Shipps stats from last year, they equaled out to a RB17.

Add 5 TDs and you have a top 10 back.

Edge will be fine

 

[Blackjacks]

I think 325 carries for 1250 and 5 td's sounds about right. Maybe he'll add in another 200 recieving, very comparable to Willis McGahhe last year for #15 rb.

 

[LordHusker]

I think 325 carries for 1250 and 5 td's sounds about right. Maybe he'll add in another 200 recieving, very comparable to Willis McGahhe last year for #15 rb.

Wow.If Edge only scores 5 TDs this year, I am a dead man. I took him in the first round of my 14-team league at the 7th pick.

 

[Chaka]

Barring injury I see Edge's floor as 1,400 total yards and 6 TDs.

 

[Z-Dog]

People seem to be dropping Edge's TD totals down in order to achieve some of the lower rankings getting thrown out. But TDs are extremely variable from year to year, and the statistic that's hardest to predicts. I think Edge will get touches, and that he's a really good back, who will get decent productivity out of his touches.

In a way he is like Willis McGahee - not in the sense that he will put up similar numbers, but in the sense that he is guaranteed lots of touches. Many people are undervaluing Mcgahee for scoring only five rushing TDs last year. People are dropping Edge down to McGahee stats, which is very odd ot me. Say waht you will, Edge is a better back then McGahee at this stage in their careers, and Arizona is a better team than Buffalo last year in every way - better veteran QB, better rookie QB, better O-line, probably even better TE, and we haven't even gotten to the WRs.

Edge is in a very good situation, and he's going to produce. Full disclosure, I took him 1.13 in 16-team league.

 

[bocksheesh]

I think 325 carries for 1250 and 5 td's sounds about right. Maybe he'll add in another 200 recieving, very comparable to Willis McGahhe last year for #15 rb.

Wow.If Edge only scores 5 TDs this year, I am a dead man. I took him in the first round of my 14-team league at the 7th pick.

You are a dead man.

 

[TheFanatic]

I see Edge with 1500+ total yards this year. Before you cry bloody murder hear me out.

I see him as more of a 900/600 (rushing/receiving) guy this year. He will get a LOT of dump passes. He will make the block and then drop out into the flat and turn around for the pass. He'll get a lot of screens. Warner knows how to get the ball to a playmaking/pass catching WR.

I don't see double digit TD's with so many big targets in the red zone to throw to which will keep him out of elite status this year but he will still be rock solid in standard scoring leagues.

Edge will be money in PPR leagues.

 

[OneEastRiver]

I see Edge with 1500+ total yards this year. Before you cry bloody murder hear me out. I see him as more of a 900/600 (rushing/receiving) guy this year. He will get a LOT of dump passes. He will make the block and then drop out into the flat and turn around for the pass. He'll get a lot of screens. Warner knows how to get the ball to a playmaking/pass catching WR. I don't see double digit TD's with so many big targets in the red zone to throw to which will keep him out of elite status this year but he will still be rock solid in standard scoring leagues. Edge will be money in PPR leagues.

I think part of the reason the Cards have thrown so much in the red zone is because they had no solid options at RB. Arrington had 2 rushing TDs all season, and Shipp was not much better. In 2006, I would expect red zone TDs to decline for the WRs relative to prior years because of Edge's presence. No coach would prefer to pass in the red zone over running the ball unless its their only option (despite Fitz and Boldin's talent). I'm predicting Edge will get his chances at the goal line before they risk a lob in the endzone.

 

[LordHusker]

I think 325 carries for 1250 and 5 td's sounds about right. Maybe he'll add in another 200 recieving, very comparable to Willis McGahhe last year for #15 rb.

Wow.If Edge only scores 5 TDs this year, I am a dead man. I took him in the first round of my 14-team league at the 7th pick.

You are a dead man.

Thanks for the insight. But, actually, I shouldn't have said that in the first place. I wasn't thrilled with that Edge pick -- I got caught off guard when the guy in front of me took Rudi, plus I was hungover as hell from drinking until 2:30 a.m. with the lead singer of an Irish-rock band the night before -- but I had a pretty solid draft otherwise.That said, I'll bet you a zillion bucks that Edge has more than 5 TDs this year. They might all be receiving TDs, but I'll bet he gets them.

 

[SSOG]

What's the lowest I could possibly see Edge producing, assuming he stayed healthy?

See Kevin Jones, 2005.

What's a reasonable floor for Edgerrin James?

See Reuben Droughns, 2005.

 

[duaneok66]

I see Edge with 1500+ total yards this year. Before you cry bloody murder hear me out. I see him as more of a 900/600 (rushing/receiving) guy this year. He will get a LOT of dump passes. He will make the block and then drop out into the flat and turn around for the pass. He'll get a lot of screens. Warner knows how to get the ball to a playmaking/pass catching WR. I don't see double digit TD's with so many big targets in the red zone to throw to which will keep him out of elite status this year but he will still be rock solid in standard scoring leagues. Edge will be money in PPR leagues.

I think part of the reason the Cards have thrown so much in the red zone is because they had no solid options at RB. Arrington had 2 rushing TDs all season, and Shipp was not much better. In 2006, I would expect red zone TDs to decline for the WRs relative to prior years because of Edge's presence. No coach would prefer to pass in the red zone over running the ball unless its their only option (despite Fitz and Boldin's talent). I'm predicting Edge will get his chances at the goal line before they risk a lob in the endzone.

one of Edge's weaknesses is the short yardage game . . . the Colts were 29th last year in such situations . . .

 

[joffer]

I see him as more of a 900/600 (rushing/receiving) guy this year. He will get a LOT of dump passes.

he'd have to catch 80 passes to get close to 600 receving yards....i don't see it.absolute floor barring injury is about 1100 total yards and 4 TDs.

 

[LordHusker]

After three weeks, Edge is looking like he could wind up a Top 10 RB to me.

He got close to 100 yards today and found the end zone for the second time this year. Plus, his O-line finally had all its starters for the first time this year and looked somewhat better. He's not going to blow anyone away with any 150 yard, 2 TD games -- and he will have a rough week from time to time with 50-70 yards and no score -- but he seems fairly solid so far on a struggling team.

In this NFL that increasingly has become RBBC, there's something to be said for Edge. He gets the rock. Even if he does average 2.0 YPC. And Denny has shown that he doesn't give up on the run easily.

 

[Homer]

After three weeks, Edge is looking like he could wind up a Top 10 RB to me. He got close to 100 yards today and found the end zone for the second time this year. Plus, his O-line finally had all its starters for the first time this year and looked somewhat better. He's not going to blow anyone away with any 150 yard, 2 TD games -- and he will have a rough week from time to time with 50-70 yards and no score -- but he seems fairly solid so far on a struggling team.In this NFL that increasingly has become RBBC, there's something to be said for Edge. He gets the rock. Even if he does average 2.0 YPC. And Denny has shown that he doesn't give up on the run easily.

A better question, IMO, is what's his UPSIDE?Others have pointed out the wll-known deficiencies of the AZ o-line, but Edgerrin James has NO breakway speed anymore -- he NEVER gets out of even 2nd gear. I don't see any way he's going to average 4+ YPC this year -- he had by far his best game of the year running the ball today, and couldn't even reach that mark. That means 1200 or so rushing yards maximum, assuming he does get his 300 carries, and we all KNOW there will be games where Arizona is gonna abandon the run because they get buried early. He also caught a whopping 1 pass today, and was basically ignored in the passing game. 15 passing yards a game is what he's averaging, and I'd guess that's what he's gonna average going forward as well.As far as TD's go, Edge should be THE exclusive red zone goalline option, but doesn't look like Arizona has figured out much as far as improving in the red zone this year, which would seem to me to indicate a max of 8 TD's. He's got two TD's so far in three games, but they've also had San Fran and the Rams in two of those games.Doesn't look like mid-first round production to ME, but what do I know?

 

[Resident A]

If you take Edge's stats thru 3 games & project it over a full season, you get:

363 carries for 1,232 yards. 59 receptions for 272 yards. 11 TDs

I think that is well within reach.

 

[OneEastRiver]

A better question, IMO, is what's his UPSIDE?

Others have pointed out the wll-known deficiencies of the AZ o-line, but Edgerrin James has NO breakway speed anymore -- he NEVER gets out of even 2nd gear. I don't see any way he's going to average 4+ YPC this year -- he had by far his best game of the year running the ball today, and couldn't even reach that mark.

He hasn't had breakaway speed for years, and he's still managed to average over 4 YPC over these years. Last year, his longest run was 33 yards. The positive takeaway from yesterday's game is that he was ripping off runs of 6-10 yards fairly consistently. Forget about hoping for a 65 yard TD run from him -- that's not his style. No one expects that of him. He's most effective when he eats up chunks of yards on a long drive.

That means 1200 or so rushing yards maximum, assuming he does get his 300 carries, and we all KNOW there will be games where Arizona is gonna abandon the run because they get buried early.

How can you even type the above if you have been keeping track of the Cards' offense?? Carries in his first three games this year are 26, 18, and 24. On pace for well over 300, as Green looks committed to the run and a well-balanced gameplan. AZ is 1-2 this year and have trailed quite frequently. Look at Edge's carries (and runs) in the 4th quarter yesterday when they were down by 2 scores.

He also caught a whopping 1 pass today, and was basically ignored in the passing game. 15 passing yards a game is what he's averaging, and I'd guess that's what he's gonna average going forward as well.

He caught 7 passes in the prior week vs. Seattle. Does that count for anything or was it a total fluke and we can expect 1 catch per game going forward?

As far as TD's go, Edge should be THE exclusive red zone goalline option, but doesn't look like Arizona has figured out much as far as improving in the red zone this year, which would seem to me to indicate a max of 8 TD's. He's got two TD's so far in three games, but they've also had San Fran and the Rams in two of those games.

They get to play SF and STL again this year, so thats another plus (not a negative), right? They also have OAK and GB in the middle of the season which should be beneficial to Edge owners.

Doesn't look like mid-first round production to ME, but what do I know?

 

[redman]

Thanks for the insight. But, actually, I shouldn't have said that in the first place. I wasn't thrilled with that Edge pick -- I got caught off guard when the guy in front of me took Rudi, plus I was hungover as hell from drinking until 2:30 a.m. with the lead singer of an Irish-rock band the night before