Eli Manning (1 Viewer)

[srnohav]

I just read a Q&A with KC Joyner on espn.com. he said that QB's that are not accurate can not ever get better, they can improve a little with mechanics but only a few % point increase. so I looked up several top Qb's in their first years.

Payton Manning in 1998 had a 56.7% completion rate

Matt Hasselbeck had a 54.8% completion rate in his first year in Seattle

Mcnabb had a 57.9% completion rate in his first year as a starter in Phili.

This is not when all of them were on the bench, first FULL year as starters. They all got considerbly better. but alot of people are dogging Eli because of his completion %, why, it is his first year. I am not a Giants fan, so maybe some of you saw more games than I saw last year.

What are all of you expecting from him this year

 

[Liquid Tension]

I just read a Q&A with KC Joyner on espn.com. he said that QB's that are not accurate can not ever get better, they can improve a little with mechanics but only a few % point increase. so I looked up several top Qb's in their first years.

Payton Manning in 1998 had a 56.7% completion rate

Matt Hasselbeck had a 54.8% completion rate in his first year in Seattle

Mcnabb had a 57.9% completion rate in his first year as a starter in Phili.

This is not when all of them were on the bench, first FULL year as starters. They all got considerbly better. but alot of people are dogging Eli because of his completion %, why, it is his first year. I am not a Giants fan, so maybe some of you saw more games than I saw last year.

What are all of you expecting from him this year

I think Eli has shown the ability to play in this league. He needs to get more consistent, but he can do everything you need. (not a great scrambler). He is tough and has a short memory which is real important considering his Ol can't pass block at all. if they could give him some more time he will get better. i also think it was paramount they add some speed to heir receivers. getting Moss should help widen the field for Shockey in the middle and screens to Tiki. the offense should be able to move the ball well.

 

[Tick]

He's got the mental makeup from what I've seen, but his accuracy is a definite problem. Those other guys improved on their accuracy, but their first years were much better than Eli's from an accuracy standpoint.

53.8% is pretty brutal.

I'd expect him to improve on that number, but I doubt his accuracy ever improves all the way to match the elite guys.

 

[earlybreak]

I will say I am a Giant fan so take what I say with a grain of salt. One of the biggest problems with Manning and his WR'ers has more to do with them not being on the same page. Countless times I would see Manning throw to the outside shoulder and the WR'er would break to the inside or Manning would read the play for the WR'er or TE to break up field and they would stop and turn and we see the ball fly over the hear of his rec. This would happen 3, 4, or even 5 times a game in the second half of the season. Will Manning inprove over last year?? Yes if they get a stable #3 WR'er who could play more then 2 games in a row. If the Giants ever get a vet WR'er who could play the slot he could be a top 5 QB for years to come.

 

[Despyzer]

Accuracy cannot be automatically quantified with a stat like completion percentage. It's closer than any other stat, but it's hardly a one for one proposition. Timing can also influnce a stat like completion percentage. So can WRs with inconsistent hands. So can a lack of experience, a deficiency reading defenses or gauging secondary reactions.

It's entirely possible that McNabb, Hasselbeck, and older brother were more accurate and eventually picked up the other things. I'm not saying that it is definitely true... just possible.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I really really like the addition to Sinorice Moss to that team. IMO One of the best picks in the entire draft. I believe he'll make a real impact as their #3 this year.

 

[CalBear]

He's got the mental makeup from what I've seen, but his accuracy is a definite problem. Those other guys improved on their accuracy, but their first years were much better than Eli's from an accuracy standpoint.

53.8% is pretty brutal.

I'd expect him to improve on that number, but I doubt his accuracy ever improves all the way to match the elite guys.

First year with 10+ games, completion percentage, Hall of Fame QBs:Steve Young: 53.7%

Troy Aikman: 52.9%

John Elway: 47.5%

Dan Fouts: 44.8%

That doesn't mean that Eli Manning will become one of these guys, just that it's way too soon to judge.

 

[SSOG]

Quarterbacks can always improve. Rich Gannon had a 52.1% completion percentage in his first season as a starter. In 2002, he completed 67.6% of his passes and won the league MVP.

 

[Bri]

I really really like the addition to Sinorice Moss to that team. IMO One of the best picks in the entire draft. I believe he'll make a real impact as their #3 this year.

He'll have to beat out Carter first. Carter is/was lightning fast himself and also a first or second round pick IIRC.I read somewhere recently, I think Eisen w/ Coughlin, that this is exactly what Coughlin wants. Someday Toomer's going to have to be replaced and those two should battle for it.

Carter gets hurt every year so Sinorice should be fine by week 8.

 

[Bri]

I just read a Q&A with KC Joyner on espn.com. he said that QB's that are not accurate can not ever get better, they can improve a little with mechanics but only a few % point increase. so I looked up several top Qb's in their first years.

Payton Manning in 1998 had a 56.7% completion rate

Matt Hasselbeck had a 54.8% completion rate in his first year in Seattle

Mcnabb had a 57.9% completion rate in his first year as a starter in Phili.

This is not when all of them were on the bench, first FULL year as starters. They all got considerbly better. but alot of people are dogging Eli because of his completion %, why, it is his first year. I am not a Giants fan, so maybe some of you saw more games than I saw last year.

What are all of you expecting from him this year

he's fine.He did as well, if not better, than most young QBs do. He got his 16th start somewhere in the middle of last season. That's not too much time to develop a repoire with his WRs. Coughlin, Gilbride, and others have noticed improvements in minicamp already and commented as such.

 

[srnohav]

so what about the fact that he is going against some real good defenses twice a year in Dallas, Wash, Phili.

also, EARLYBREAK mentioned the lack of communication between the receivers, everyone has read about him and Burress. does not seem probable that the two of them are going to be putting in extra time in the offseason like big bro and Harrison, or Palmer and Johnson. does that limit his upside potential?

 

[MLBrandow]

Joyner is correct, and as much respect as I have for the man (he's probably the best statistician among NFL analysts), I would have to dissent from his opinion on Eli Manning.

Quarterbacks like Harrington who have pretty ugly completion percentages are a direct result of their failures as QBs.

Manning's bad completion percentage is much more a result of him and his receivers not having that chemistry and coordination.

I really think you will see a profound increase in his numbers this year across the board.

While QBs who can't aim generally don't improve with coaching, QBs who are simply missing targets due to incorrect route assignments/play-calling/etc will certainly improve.

Also, a link woulld be great.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I really really like the addition to Sinorice Moss to that team. IMO One of the best picks in the entire draft. I believe he'll make a real impact as their #3 this year.

He'll have to beat out Carter first. Carter is/was lightning fast himself and also a first or second round pick IIRC.I read somewhere recently, I think Eisen w/ Coughlin, that this is exactly what Coughlin wants. Someday Toomer's going to have to be replaced and those two should battle for it.

Carter gets hurt every year so Sinorice should be fine by week 8.

Not 100%, but I thought the Giants cut Carter?

 

[houndirish]

Carter is still on the team. You may be thinking of Jamar Taylor, who retired about a month and a half ago.

Eli will be fine. I tend to echo the thoughts of those who've mentioned the % being a factor of developing chemistry with his receivers. Eli hasn't struck me a guy who simply misses on a ton of throws.

I don't have the stats to back this up but having watched the Giants all the time I've noticed there haven't been a ton of the high percentage short passes like RB and WR screens in their playbook. For a young QB, Eli's also done a decent job of throwing the ball away to avoid sacks. Neither of these help a completion percentage. Before anyone jumps on this, I'm not saying this is the ONLY reason behind the poor % figure. But it certainly contributes.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more WR screens from the G-Men this year. IIRC Coughlin liked that play in his Jacksonville days. Sinorice Moss would also excel in that playcall.

 

[CalBear]

I don't have the stats to back this up but having watched the Giants all the time I've noticed there haven't been a ton of the high percentage short passes like RB and WR screens in their playbook.

Tiki Barber had 54 receptions in 2005, #3 in the league for RBs.

 

[gump]

The one thing that always struck me about Eli from his freshman year in college thru his career at OM was his accuracy...in the pocket, on the run, deep, outside...whatever.

I would think his first year starting in the NFL is the anamoly.

 

[Joseph]

Joyner's questioning Eli's accuracy isn't based on his completion %. He reviews game film, and records the % of passes that are poorly thrown regardless of whether or not they're caught. His contention is that this is a better mark of the accuracy of a QB and that it tends to not be an improvable item for a QB...

As an Eli owner, I sure hope he's wrong, but I would definately feel better if my hopes were more in line with the statistician.

 

[Joseph]

quotes from the chat:

chris(ny): The Giants filled every whole this off season and didnt lose anyone significant. KC are you another analyst that thinks the Giants are gonna finish 3rd in the division behind Dallas and Washington? K.C. Joyner: I am looking forward to the NFC East battles this year. It will be like the 80s, when these teams beat each other up every other week. Each of the teams has improved and has a legit chance of winning the division. Eli's inaccuracy does bother me a lot. That is the kind of thing that doesn't correct itself, so I think it will be an ongoing problem. I could easily see a playoff berth in NY but possibly not a division title.

A later follow up question:

sean (denver): KC, I will argue your QB analysis with proof Payton Manning had a 56.7% completion rate in 1998 Matt Hasselbeck had a 54.8% in his first year with Seattle Mcnabb had a 57.9% completion rate with Phili. these were all of their first FULL years of starting, why can't Eli improve just like all of these greats K.C. Joyner: It isn't just the completion percentages I'm talking about. I track how often a QB throws an accurate pass, not just a completed pass. Eli ranked 39th among QBs in accurate pass percentages. Just over 20% of his passes were inaccurate, and this number culls out things like throwaway passes and passes batted down at the line. I think he could work this number down to 15%, but that's probably all.

 

[MLBrandow]

Having read that, I would have to lean more toward agreeing with Joyner on this one.

At that, it is not a doom and gloom scenario.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=32277

In other words, we'll see Eli develop into roughly a 60% passer, or, what he was in college. He looked pretty good in college, neh?

 

[Liquid Tension]

quotes from the chat:

chris(ny): The Giants filled every whole this off season and didnt lose anyone significant. KC are you another analyst that thinks the Giants are gonna finish 3rd in the division behind Dallas and Washington?

K.C. Joyner: I am looking forward to the NFC East battles this year. It will be like the 80s, when these teams beat each other up every other week. Each of the teams has improved and has a legit chance of winning the division.

Eli's inaccuracy does bother me a lot. That is the kind of thing that doesn't correct itself, so I think it will be an ongoing problem. I could easily see a playoff berth in NY but possibly not a division title.

A later follow up question:

sean (denver): KC, I will argue your QB analysis with proof Payton Manning had a 56.7% completion rate in 1998 Matt Hasselbeck had a 54.8% in his first year with Seattle Mcnabb had a 57.9% completion rate with Phili. these were all of their first FULL years of starting, why can't Eli improve just like all of these greats

K.C. Joyner: It isn't just the completion percentages I'm talking about. I track how often a QB throws an accurate pass, not just a completed pass. Eli ranked 39th among QBs in accurate pass percentages. Just over 20% of his passes were inaccurate, and this number culls out things like throwaway passes and passes batted down at the line. I think he could work this number down to 15%, but that's probably all.

Joseph I will take Joyner at his word for what he has done, but after one year I don't believe that it is fair to make the judgment about what he can or can't do. He was inconsistent at times and sometimes the ball just comes out of hands like a Billy Kilmer wobbly pass, but when your OL is terrible at pass blocking, ALL QB's are inconsistent. I am a believer that most NFL QB's can go into their 5-7 step drop step up and throw the ball to a spot if they are not under any pressure or haven't been pounded earlier in the game. Therefore, a QB on a different team may look much better than on that lousy OL team.