Ernie Sims - The Future (1 Viewer)

[alg]

I have been very impressed with Sims' tackle consistency. In fact, in this regard he may be one of the more consistent LBs in FFB. I start this thread, however, wondering if Ernie will ever be a top producer, even with 2pts per tackle. His lack of sacks/big plays generally leave him a slight cut below even my 3rd starter (of a strong LB crew I should add.)

I have not been able to see him play, so I am wondering what others think:

- Is he used in pass rush? He only has .5 sacks.

- Is he used in coverage? I don't think he has any INTs.

- Does he even play 3 downs, as I have assumed?

- Are there any scheme related factors that limit his upside?

- Are there any scheme related factors that make stardom a near certainty?

He is hard for me to evaluate right now relative to other LBs. Would you trade him for a Merriman-type, big play talent? Or vis versa? Can he be a Cover 2, Brooks-like talent? Where is his relative value?

If Sims can maintain his consistency - and add some big plays - he could be huge IDP news next year, and end up even more valuable then, say, Ryans. I simply have no basis to make projections. Anyone else have thoughts on this guy for the future?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Sims is a three down player. The Tampa-2 scheme doesn't routinely blitz linebackers -- they're expected to cover the short and intermediate zones instead. Some T2 teams are proving to be more aggressive than others (Chicago and Minnesota primarily) so that could change for Detroit if they get some playmakers in the lineup.

Working in Sims favor in the long term:

**His skill set is almost a perfect fit for the Tampa-2. He's lightning quick in pursuit and a solid tackler. His size isn't an issue on the weak side and his recovery speed can make up for his still developing instincts in coverage.

**Not many LBs approach 100 solo tackles in their rookie season. Although times have changed a little over the past three seasons with the influx of LB talent, it's still pretty rare. Sims is on pace for 90 tackles this year despite three games in which he totaled only four tackles. Most talented linebackers continue to improve as they adjust to the pace of the game. There's no reason Sims can't push his solo tackle output toward Derrick Brooks' best seasons.

Working against Sims:

**Sims has benefited from a weak front four this year with Shaun Rogers and Shaun Cody missing time. He also benefits from not having below replacement level talent at MLB. Paris Lenon and Boss Bailey pale in comparison to Brian Urlacher and Shelton Quarles and Gary Brackett. Rogers will be back in 2007 and the Lions can't do any worse at MLB. Sims should have more competition for tackles in the future.

**Sims has lagged way behind the usual coverage stats that boost the value of a T2 WLB. Whether that's because his coverage instincts aren't great or that the Lions have faced the seventh fewest pass attempts in the league is debatable. It's probably more the latter -- Cato June and Lance Briggs don't have the coverage ability of Derrick Brooks but they've still managed to approach double digit passes defended each season. Last year's scouting reports would suggest that Sims would do fine in coverage so the single PD is probably a fluke.

**Sims still has that concussion thing dirtying up his file. So far this season, he's destroyed Alex Lewis and Fernando Bryant but survived his own reckless style of play.

Whether you move him for a big play guy like Merriman is completely scoring system dependent.

I think a reasonable seasonal projection for Sims would be 88-95 solos (with some additional upside), 1-2 sacks, 1-2 interceptions, 6-9 passes defended although the coverage and pass rush stats could be better or worse depending on how the Lions improve on both sides of the ball. He should be a solid LB2, stuck in the middle of a huge glut of other backers in the low level LB1 - mid LB2 tier who could finish in the top ten with a couple extra big plays.