ESPN's "fantasy expert" Matthew Berry... (1 Viewer)

[teamroc]

I wouldn't take him in the first either.

So he didn't list the same 1st round guys as everyone else on the planet. It would have been a worthless article if he did. I like it when people shake things up, throw some stuff out there to make people think.

 

[sentr]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit..

Yea, his use of the last 5 years stats is laughable. If he wants to be down on Gore for valid reasons, that's fine, but using that stat line is ridiculous. Why didn't he go back 7 years? Oh, yea, Faulk's combined rushing/receiving/TD stats in 2001 were ridiculous.We all know he didn't have much to work with in Detroit and when he did have some success with Kevin Jones, Jones would get hurt. So, it's hard to have a successful lead back when you don't have a successful lead back.

In his last 3 years in St. Louis, Jackson and Faulk split some time two of the years, reducing the stats of the lead back, and in 2005, when Jackson carried the majority of the load, he had over 1300 combined yards with double digit TDs.

As for Gore never having double digits TDs, that's such a shocker. He's only been in the league for 3 years. He didn't have that many carries in year 1. He had 9 TDs in year two, one TD shy of double digits, and this all with a pretty weak offensive game plan in San Fran.

If I can get a job on ESPN using that type of weak reasoning, sign me up.

I would replace the language following the bold and underlined quote above with the following:he would abandon the run and start calling pass plays, leading to quick 3 and outs,

As an off and on Kevin Jones owner the past couple of seasons Martz was a disaster for the RB position- we'll see if this translates in SF, but Gore is much more of a risk than many of you are letting on. New OC, pitiful QB, new WR's, team that hasn't learned how to lead and win games, etc.....he may do fine but there's more questions with Gore than most owners would want in a 1st round pick.

 

[themanbeast9]

Frank Gore will not be his old self because of the acquisition of Mike Martz and his pass happy offense. Be aware of this addition as you will see less and less carries for Gore.

 

[butcher boy]

New OC, pitiful QB, new WR's, team that hasn't learned how to lead and win games, etc.....he may do fine but there's more questions with Gore than most owners would want in a 1st round pick.

Once again, how are any of these concerns different than what the 49ers faced last year?

 

[sentr]

New OC, pitiful QB, new WR's, team that hasn't learned how to lead and win games, etc.....he may do fine but there's more questions with Gore than most owners would want in a 1st round pick.

Once again, how are any of these concerns different than what the 49ers faced last year?

NEW OC, NEW WR's The new OC is not just a "new OC"- it is Martz' complex system. My confidence in all these fluid pieces coming together is very low- for me it is too much to compute for a 1st round pick.

 

[butcher boy]

New OC, pitiful QB, new WR's, team that hasn't learned how to lead and win games, etc.....he may do fine but there's more questions with Gore than most owners would want in a 1st round pick.

Once again, how are any of these concerns different than what the 49ers faced last year?

NEW OC, NEW WR's The new OC is not just a "new OC"- it is Martz' complex system. My confidence in all these fluid pieces coming together is very low- for me it is too much to compute for a 1st round pick.

They had a new OC and new WRs last year too. One of the new WRs this year knows Martz's system, and it would appear the soon to be starting QB knows it as well.Even if they're only able to execute 25% of Martz's complex system, it'll still be better than the offense that was being called for us last year.

I think people really have to watch some of the Niner games from last year to understand how the attrocious playcalling really was.

 

[cjack]

While I'm also not a big Frank Gore fan this year either, I'm definitely not a Matthew Berry fan. The guy "hates" Adrian Peterson this year too

ADP faces a brutally tough schedule this season, Tavaris Jackson won't be marginally better than he was last year, if at all, ADP will face more 8-man fronts, and in the final 6 weeks of 2007 he averaged just 50 yards/gm,and 3.8 per carry.. I know people don't like to hear 'take out his two best games and he's average at best' but its true..in just two games, he rushed for 520 yards, thats more than 1/3rd of his total rushing output..

if ever there was a 'bloated stat line' it is ADP's stat line from 2007...

as for Gore, props to Berry ...

I like prognosticators like him, guys that don't take the cookie-cutter approach to rankings...seemingly every magazine has the exact same top 10 RB list...

Couple things. What about ADP's schedule this year is so brutal? Is it Detroit in weeks 6 and 14, or Arizona in week 15, or maybe New Orleans in week 5. Maybe Chicago, who he ran over for more than 300 yards in their two games last year. His schedule doesn't look particularly hard to run against. Also, while it's probably expecting much to see Jackson improve significantly this year, he did get better in the second half of the year, so he could do a better job of keeping defenses honest. You really think Peterson is going to see more 8 man fronts than he saw last year? Hard to imagine.

And despite taking out his two best games (ridiculous in itself) he still had another 4 games over 100 yards rushing, and another game over 100 yards combined. His knee seemed to bother his stats and opportunities late in the year, so if you want to predict further injury that may be reasonable.

I realize Taylor is still there to take away touches, but Peterson's touches can only go up from last year, barring injury.

In Rushing Yards Per Game last year AZ was #9 and NO #13. Chicago was #24.

I wouldn't put too much stock in their ranking. A lot of that depends on what types of rushing attacks they faced. New Orleans only faced 3 of the top 10 rushing teams in Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Philly. Arizona faced only 2 top 10 rushing teams in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I don't have a problem with Barry's rating of Gore. I am higher on Gore than Berry, but Berry defends his positions well.

I do think it's interesting that some of you have such a low opinion of Gore. Gore finished with somewhere around #10 in fantasy points for RBs last year on the worst offense in the NFL. SF has better WRs and a real offensive coordinator this year. No way will they be that bad again.

Martz RBs don't do well? Someone else mentioned this, and it bears repeating:

Gore >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kevin Jones

 

[Raider Nation]

Frank Gore will not be his old self because of the acquisition of Mike Martz and his pass happy offense. Be aware of this addition as you will see less and less carries for Gore.

Take a stab who 80 or so of those catches will go to in that "pass happy" offense.He was on Sirius with Tim and Pat today, and they were talking Roger Craig territory... 100 receptions.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit.

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs.

But your last point actually works for Gore.Detroit has two STUD receivers. If that's the strength of your team, get them the ball.

Since SF's receivers are really poor, that equates to All Gore, All The Time... rushing and receiving.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit.

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs.

But your last point actually works for Gore.Detroit has two STUD receivers. If that's the strength of your team, get them the ball.

Since SF's receivers are really poor, that equates to All Gore, All The Time... rushing and receiving.

Football 101 With no passing threat and a questionable O line... how many men in the box would you put against Frank Gore??

 

[packersfan]

Frank Gore will not be his old self because of the acquisition of Mike Martz and his pass happy offense. Be aware of this addition as you will see less and less carries for Gore.

Take a stab who 80 or so of those catches will go to in that "pass happy" offense.He was on Sirius with Tim and Pat today, and they were talking Roger Craig territory... 100 receptions.

Yup. I think Gore is going to be a monster in PPR leagues this year. I found out today I have the fourth pick in my draft and unless Westbrook falls, I'm taking Gore. I'm considering Addai but I think Martz leans on Gore a ton this year. He will be the Niners' Marshall Faulk. I'm loving Gore in PPR leagues.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit.

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs.

But your last point actually works for Gore.Detroit has two STUD receivers. If that's the strength of your team, get them the ball.

Since SF's receivers are really poor, that equates to All Gore, All The Time... rushing and receiving.

Football 101 With no passing threat and a questionable O line... how many men in the box would you put against Frank Gore??

Not as important with Gore, as he will still be heavily involved in the passing game. They won't go 3-and-out every series, will they? And the Raiders had poor receivers and awful QB play last year, and they still ran on everybody. The "8 men in the box" fear is irrational.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I like prognosticators like him, guys that don't take the cookie-cutter approach to rankings...seemingly every magazine has the exact same top 10 RB list...

I'll really have to look over his stuff again, because ESPN always seems real basic/middle of the road/well no kidding in their rankings.I'll have to look again, but also keep in mind, different just to be different isn't always valuable.edited to add:These are his RB rankings. Nothing earth shattering here, save maybe where Gore/Grant end up and ADP at 4. Of course, in fairness, there is so much confusion in the latter half of the top 10 rbs this year, in part because of the injuries last year that it's anyone's guess who will go where or end up where. It would be hard to come up with a completely unusual top ten this year unless you just want to be wierd for weirdness sake.1 LaDainian Tomlinson 2 Brian Westbrook 3 Joseph Addai 4 Adrian Peterson 5 Steven Jackson 6 Clinton Portis 7 Marshawn Lynch 8 Marion Barber 9 Ryan Grant 10 Frank Gore

Really? I wouldn't say earth shattering, but an earth shattering top 10 list would be way off. This is good. Addai ahead of Jackson. Portis at 6. Lynch ahead of Barber. And of course Peterson. Those are nice, out of the box somewhat predictions.

 

[the spanker]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit..

SF doesn't have a terrible OL and QB to boot?

 

[Raider Nation]

While I'm also not a big Frank Gore fan this year either, I'm definitely not a Matthew Berry fan. The guy "hates" Adrian Peterson this year too

He "hates" him second overall. As does Dodds, who runs this site.

Dodds hates ADP? You mean to the tune of 1668 total yards and 15 TD's, right? Yeah, OK, he's a hater.

"Adrian Peterson, Min - I have a bad feeling about AP this year. I don't question his talent at all, but a lot of things broke right for him last year. He still will split carries with Chester Taylor and will likely face 8+ in the box every time he is in the game. My gut tells he disappoints everyone drafting him early."Listen. And learn.

All due respect to Mr. Dodds, I don't think he's followed the Minnesota situation closely this offseason. Not only won't Taylor be "splitting carries" with Peterson... he's not even slated to be the 3rd down back anymore. Childress is doing everything in his power to get AD prepared to be on the field every down.

 

[Otis]

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. Pass at your own risk.

 

[Raider Nation]

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. Pass at your own risk.

I was wondering how long it would be until you showed up.

 

[ceo3west]

While I'm also not a big Frank Gore fan this year either, I'm definitely not a Matthew Berry fan. The guy "hates" Adrian Peterson this year too

He "hates" him second overall. As does Dodds, who runs this site.

Dodds hates ADP? You mean to the tune of 1668 total yards and 15 TD's, right? Yeah, OK, he's a hater.

"Adrian Peterson, Min - I have a bad feeling about AP this year. I don't question his talent at all, but a lot of things broke right for him last year. He still will split carries with Chester Taylor and will likely face 8+ in the box every time he is in the game. My gut tells he disappoints everyone drafting him early."Listen. And learn.

All due respect to Mr. Dodds, I don't think he's followed the Minnesota situation closely this offseason. Not only won't Taylor be "splitting carries" with Peterson... he's not even slated to be the 3rd down back anymore. Childress is doing everything in his power to get AD prepared to be on the field every down.

Link?

 

[Jon_Moore]

Berry is generally very good, I've followed his predictions for a couple years now and he knows what he's talking about. One of the few "experts" outside of the FBG's whose opinion I actually value.And I agree on Gore, I won't be taking him.

Oh, I think it's fine to be down on anyone, but the writer's reasoning IS ridicuouls. Martz was in Detroit with no o-line, and at times, no real running back. So, I wonder what the average is if you don't include those Detroit seasons? Because Marshall Faulk didn't quite suck under him.

 

[joffer]

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. Pass at your own risk.

memories........

 

[Raider Nation]

While I'm also not a big Frank Gore fan this year either, I'm definitely not a Matthew Berry fan. The guy "hates" Adrian Peterson this year too

He "hates" him second overall. As does Dodds, who runs this site.

Dodds hates ADP? You mean to the tune of 1668 total yards and 15 TD's, right? Yeah, OK, he's a hater.

"Adrian Peterson, Min - I have a bad feeling about AP this year. I don't question his talent at all, but a lot of things broke right for him last year. He still will split carries with Chester Taylor and will likely face 8+ in the box every time he is in the game. My gut tells he disappoints everyone drafting him early."Listen. And learn.

All due respect to Mr. Dodds, I don't think he's followed the Minnesota situation closely this offseason. Not only won't Taylor be "splitting carries" with Peterson... he's not even slated to be the 3rd down back anymore. Childress is doing everything in his power to get AD prepared to be on the field every down.

Link?

Perhaps we are engaged in semantics here.Before I debate you, define your exact interpretation of "splitting carries" for me.

 

[Bears_Man2]

Wouldn't take him in the 1st either. Gore is very talented. I just want no part of having to deal with what is around him (and how it affects his totals & most importantly his consistency.).

I'd roll with Brady/Moss/Peyton among others before Gore.

 

[NoFBinLA]

I like prognosticators like him, guys that don't take the cookie-cutter approach to rankings...seemingly every magazine has the exact same top 10 RB list...

I'll really have to look over his stuff again, because ESPN always seems real basic/middle of the road/well no kidding in their rankings.I'll have to look again, but also keep in mind, different just to be different isn't always valuable.edited to add:These are his RB rankings. Nothing earth shattering here, save maybe where Gore/Grant end up and ADP at 4. Of course, in fairness, there is so much confusion in the latter half of the top 10 rbs this year, in part because of the injuries last year that it's anyone's guess who will go where or end up where. It would be hard to come up with a completely unusual top ten this year unless you just want to be wierd for weirdness sake.1 LaDainian Tomlinson 2 Brian Westbrook 3 Joseph Addai 4 Adrian Peterson 5 Steven Jackson 6 Clinton Portis 7 Marshawn Lynch 8 Marion Barber 9 Ryan Grant 10 Frank Gore

Really? I wouldn't say earth shattering, but an earth shattering top 10 list would be way off. This is good. Addai ahead of Jackson. Portis at 6. Lynch ahead of Barber. And of course Peterson. Those are nice, out of the box somewhat predictions.

I didn't say it wasn't good - I just said not that far outside the box. It's a decent list I think.

 

[TaxMan]

WOW, what a thread. Lots of Gore-haters.

I'm gonna take the opposite and roll with Gore even more with this post. When everyone thinks alike, i.e. majority thinks Gore will be a BUST under Martz, more often than not, the masses are WRONG.

I'll bump this post up when Gore puts up close to 1800 yds rush/rec !!!

 

[NoFBinLA]

WOW, what a thread. Lots of Gore-haters.I'm gonna take the opposite and roll with Gore even more with this post. When everyone thinks alike, i.e. majority thinks Gore will be a BUST under Martz, more often than not, the masses are WRONG.I'll bump this post up when Gore puts up close to 1800 yds rush/rec !!!

LOLI like him but I don't know about THAT!But Bold my friend - very bold!

 

[Otis]

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. Pass at your own risk.

memories........

 

[TaxMan]

WOW, what a thread. Lots of Gore-haters.I'm gonna take the opposite and roll with Gore even more with this post. When everyone thinks alike, i.e. majority thinks Gore will be a BUST under Martz, more often than not, the masses are WRONG.I'll bump this post up when Gore puts up close to 1800 yds rush/rec !!!

LOLI like him but I don't know about THAT!But Bold my friend - very bold!

i'm talkin about 270-1140, 75rec-600

 

[Phase of the Game]

If you like Berry, he has a daily ESPN Pod Cast called "Fantasy Focus Football". Berry is pretty much into himself and you get about 15 minutes of FF in a 35 minute Pod Cast.

Berry would you in a league.

 

[Phase of the Game]

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. Pass at your own risk.

You actually think you know something about football? I thought you spent your time focusing on how to gain attention in the FFA.

 

[hauser42]

Just the fact that Gore is going to get so many touches in the game would make him a end of the 1st rd pick. How can you stay away from a guy that is going to be the main ball carrier and at the very worst option #3 in the passing game. He will surely be gone half way thru the 2nd round in most drafts.

I have the 12 pick in the only league that sets draft order before hand. I dont see him getting to me but if he does I will really have to think about taking him, even though I'm leaning Brees/Romo and TO at that spot.

Berry went for the money and security of the world wide leader and he just looks like he is forcing some of his thoughts out there as he now has the bright lights on him. I think he plays it very close to the vest and really doesn't come out with a lot of depth in his information or picks.

 

[NoFBinLA]

WOW, what a thread. Lots of Gore-haters.I'm gonna take the opposite and roll with Gore even more with this post. When everyone thinks alike, i.e. majority thinks Gore will be a BUST under Martz, more often than not, the masses are WRONG.I'll bump this post up when Gore puts up close to 1800 yds rush/rec !!!

LOLI like him but I don't know about THAT!But Bold my friend - very bold!

i'm talkin about 270-1140, 75rec-600

Ah - that makes sense, dunno why I just read it as rushing.Not as bold, but I can get more on board with it.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Wasn't Berry the same guy who last season who said that Randy Moss and Clinton Portis wouldn't be that good and that Adrian Peterson wasn't worth the hype (for some pretty dumb reasons as well)? That didn't turn out well. Did any of his calls turn out well for that matter? I don't remember. Probably not.

Coming up with idiotic reasons for downgrading players by if not lying about but at least manipulating numbers like he did with Frank Gore are why I don't respect his opinion at all. So this is why ESPN fantasy football is free this season. The advice is almost worth the price.

 

[cjack]

Incidentally, where does he come up with his ranking of 60th overall based on 1,100 combined yards? 1,100 combined yards would have put a RB in the late 20s or so. Kevin Jones ranked 28th last year on one of the worst rushing teams of all time. I guess he's including receivers in those figures so he can bump that ranking down another 30 slots or so. That seems reasonable.

 

[Jambi]

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. Pass at your own risk.

You actually think you know something about football? I thought you spent your time focusing on how to gain attention in the FFA.

This is the shark pool Otis, not the post show scene in the lobby of a John Mayer concert.

 

[North]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit..

I really don't know what it's going to take for the Martz apologists to admit that maybe his success was just a product of the talent that surrounded him and not necessarily him. Since Faulk left and Bruce got older what has Martz done? Nothing.He proved that he couldn't succeed with mediocre talent in Detroit and actually was let go by the worst run franchise in the NFL. Now he's in San Fran without players of the caliber he had in St. Louis and I predict he will fail there as well.

 

[cjack]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit..

I really don't know what it's going to take for the Martz apologists to admit that maybe his success was just a product of the talent that surrounded him and not necessarily him. Since Faulk left and Bruce got older what has Martz done? Nothing.He proved that he couldn't succeed with mediocre talent in Detroit and actually was let go by the worst run franchise in the NFL. Now he's in San Fran without players of the caliber he had in St. Louis and I predict he will fail there as well.

That franchise isn't known for their decision making and personnel decisions, so why would letting go of Martz now be the right decision? Are you saying he failed in Detroit because they didn't make the playoffs? Tell me who could have taken Detroit to the playoffs the last two years. He did improve their overall offense. Whether he does that in San Fran remains to be seen, but do you honestly feel he'll do worse than their OC from last year? If not, then Gore should see an improvement in overall stats. He was 8th last year. If he improves, even slightly, that's good enough for a middle/late first round pick. If Martz has a more than trivial impact, Gore has top 5 potential. If San Fran doesn't make the playoffs this year, did Martz fail? I don't think so. It will make it easy for you to pat yourself on the back though.

 

[Sweetness_34]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit..

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs. Good luck Frank

How is any of that different than what SF had last year when Gore was the #8 RB? If anything, they are slightly better this year than last.

I agree, I really don't understand the Gore bashing. I can see if you don't want to rank him top 3, but to suggest you won't touch him in the first round just seems short-sighted. He finished last year number 8, despite being nicked up and on one of the worst offenses imaginable. He gets what many consider one of the best offensive minds coming over. They brought in Bruce and Johnson to add to their younger WR corps. What did they lose, Darrell Jackson? Big whoop. Vernon Davis is a year more seasoned. Don't know much about their offensive line, but some have said it's at least improved.Despite their QB struggles, it's near impossible to think Martz won't have some positive affect. So, if Gore only moves from 8th to 7th place, is that such a terrible pick toward the middle/end of round 1? Fine, spread the word and leave him for me at the turn.

I still think San Francisco will struggle, but it's not like their division is a tough one. The more they get ahead, the more they can run Gore, the more they get behind, the more they can use Gore out of the backfield. He had 50+ receptions last year without Martz.

I am actually a Gore fan, but I just hate it when anyone on this or any other FF site mentions someone finished top 10 or 4th or 8th or whatever. IT IS NOT ABOUT WHERE THEY FINISHED. It is about where they finished AND where others finished. What I am trying to say is that if Gore finished 8th but the RB that finished 15th had 15 FF points less than Gore in your scoring system, then I would much rather pick the QB that finished 100 points more than the next best available QB.....it is all about relative value; NOT absolute positions. If the 15th ranked RB (available in round 2 or 3) and the 1st ranked QB (available where Gore is in round 1) lead to a better team roster overall, then that is the way to go. Sorry - end of a generic rant. I am just tired of the "Player X finished in top Y last year or will finish top Z this year".....talk about relative values, not absolute positions. Absolute positions mean nothing.

 

[kneeshooter]

Wasn't Berry the same guy who last season who said that Randy Moss and Clinton Portis wouldn't be that good and that Adrian Peterson wasn't worth the hype (for some pretty dumb reasons as well)? That didn't turn out well. Did any of his calls turn out well for that matter? I don't remember. Probably not. Coming up with idiotic reasons for downgrading players by if not lying about but at least manipulating numbers like he did with Frank Gore are why I don't respect his opinion at all. So this is why ESPN fantasy football is free this season. The advice is almost worth the price.

He also emphatically told people to sit any and all Bengals/Browns players for their Week 2 matchup last year. Final score: 51-45I'll pass, thanks.

 

[cjack]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit..

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs. Good luck Frank

How is any of that different than what SF had last year when Gore was the #8 RB? If anything, they are slightly better this year than last.

I agree, I really don't understand the Gore bashing. I can see if you don't want to rank him top 3, but to suggest you won't touch him in the first round just seems short-sighted. He finished last year number 8, despite being nicked up and on one of the worst offenses imaginable. He gets what many consider one of the best offensive minds coming over. They brought in Bruce and Johnson to add to their younger WR corps. What did they lose, Darrell Jackson? Big whoop. Vernon Davis is a year more seasoned. Don't know much about their offensive line, but some have said it's at least improved.Despite their QB struggles, it's near impossible to think Martz won't have some positive affect. So, if Gore only moves from 8th to 7th place, is that such a terrible pick toward the middle/end of round 1? Fine, spread the word and leave him for me at the turn.

I still think San Francisco will struggle, but it's not like their division is a tough one. The more they get ahead, the more they can run Gore, the more they get behind, the more they can use Gore out of the backfield. He had 50+ receptions last year without Martz.

I am actually a Gore fan, but I just hate it when anyone on this or any other FF site mentions someone finished top 10 or 4th or 8th or whatever. IT IS NOT ABOUT WHERE THEY FINISHED. It is about where they finished AND where others finished. What I am trying to say is that if Gore finished 8th but the RB that finished 15th had 15 FF points less than Gore in your scoring system, then I would much rather pick the QB that finished 100 points more than the next best available QB.....it is all about relative value; NOT absolute positions. If the 15th ranked RB (available in round 2 or 3) and the 1st ranked QB (available where Gore is in round 1) lead to a better team roster overall, then that is the way to go. Sorry - end of a generic rant. I am just tired of the "Player X finished in top Y last year or will finish top Z this year".....talk about relative values, not absolute positions. Absolute positions mean nothing.

I think we understand the merits of relative value, it being a cornerstone of value based drafting and all. However, we're not debating whether to take Gore or a QB here, we're discussing why Gore will be worthy of a top 10 pick. If you want to grab Brady or Moss instead of Gore because you see Gore lumped in with a RB tier that extends from late round 1 through round 2, that's fine. But, if people are arguing that Gore is worthless in the first round because of San Francisco's offense and Martz, then we're simply using last year's finish as a guide to predict this year's finish. I don't hear people saying they don't want Gore in round 1 because they see him lumped in with the next 10 running backs, I hear them saying they don't want him because he's going to suck.

 

[butcher boy]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit.

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs.

But your last point actually works for Gore.Detroit has two STUD receivers. If that's the strength of your team, get them the ball.

Since SF's receivers are really poor, that equates to All Gore, All The Time... rushing and receiving.

Football 101 With no passing threat and a questionable O line... how many men in the box would you put against Frank Gore??

Football History 101With no passing threat, a questionable O Line in 2007, and with opposing defenses stacking the box on virtually every play, Gore still put up over 1,500 total yards and 50+ receptions.

 

[wildbill]

One of the arguments from the pro-Gore side is that he finished 8th (or 9th) last year despite weak play from the rest of his offense. But last year was an overall down year for running backs, so it may not be safe to assume that Gore would finish in the top ten in 2008 if he puts up the same stats as he did in 2007.

According to the footballguys Historical Fantasy Stats, Gore scored 190 fantasy points last year to finish ninth among running backs. Here's where he would have ranked with 190 points in the previous five years.

2006: Tied for 10th

2005: 12th

2004: 17th

2003: 12th

2002: 18th

That averages out to just a shade under 14th among running backs. That's definitely not worth a first round pick.

Even if Gore is able to surpass what he did last year, and I think that is likely as long as he stays healthy, there's a pretty good list of players who finished below Gore last year who could pass him this year. Earnest Graham, Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson and Ryan Grant were all within 32 points of Gore last year despite missing games (or not starting) last season.

Gore is one of those players that I think will do well this season, but he'll do it on someone else's team because he'll be drafted before I'd take him.

 

[cjack]

One of the arguments from the pro-Gore side is that he finished 8th (or 9th) last year despite weak play from the rest of his offense. But last year was an overall down year for running backs, so it may not be safe to assume that Gore would finish in the top ten in 2008 if he puts up the same stats as he did in 2007.According to the footballguys Historical Fantasy Stats, Gore scored 190 fantasy points last year to finish ninth among running backs. Here's where he would have ranked with 190 points in the previous five years.2006: Tied for 10th2005: 12th2004: 17th2003: 12th2002: 18thThat averages out to just a shade under 14th among running backs. That's definitely not worth a first round pick.Even if Gore is able to surpass what he did last year, and I think that is likely as long as he stays healthy, there's a pretty good list of players who finished below Gore last year who could pass him this year. Earnest Graham, Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson and Ryan Grant were all within 32 points of Gore last year despite missing games (or not starting) last season.Gore is one of those players that I think will do well this season, but he'll do it on someone else's team because he'll be drafted before I'd take him.

That's a completely valid argument, I guess I'm just more optimistic on Gore than many, and I have bigger question marks around the guys you named on his tail. I'll learn my draft spot tomorrow, but if I end up somewhere around the turn, I'm going to hope Gore falls to me at that spot. I won't be taking the 5-6 spot unless I'm forced, so if I take Gore, it will likely be because I ended up with a spot between 9-12 and he fell to me at that spot. That said, I'm hoping to land one of the top two spots, so Gore's value could be largely irrelevant to me.

 

[butcher boy]

All good points, but the bottom line for me is that Gore had no business at all putting up the stats he did in that horrid offense. The fact that he did tells me he's the real deal. I'll also add again that people who don't think that Martz is a huge upgrade for this offense simply didn't watch many 49er games last year (can't blame anyone for that though ).

 

[Buckna]

While there is some validity to the argument, I think comparing one years stats against other years should be taken with a grain of salt. If it was a down year overall for RB's, then whatever the influencing factors (whether it be injuries or an increase in defensive ability league wide or rule changes, whatever), it stands to reason that those factors might have affected Gore's numbers in the same way.

I think a better argument against Gore were his PPG numbers where he was only about RB 13. Even then, you have to take into account RB's with smaller samples sizes like Jacobs, LJ and Ronnie who only played maybe half a season and might have leveled off or faced tougher competition had they remained healthy.

 

[ukshane]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit.

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs.

But your last point actually works for Gore.Detroit has two STUD receivers. If that's the strength of your team, get them the ball.

Since SF's receivers are really poor, that equates to All Gore, All The Time... rushing and receiving.

Football 101 With no passing threat and a questionable O line... how many men in the box would you put against Frank Gore??

Football 102Who is left to stop the RB from scoring if he makes it past "the box"?

 

[cjack]

I'm down on Frank Gore as a 1st-round pick. Hear me out, okay? Over the last five years, the lead back in a Mike Martz offense has averaged just over 1,100 yards. That would have been good for 60th overall last year in terms of combined yards. And by the way, Gore has never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season. Never.

The bolded part is where he lost me. He never had Frank Gore over the last five years. He had an injured Marshall Faulk at the end of his career, he had S-Jax at the beginning of his career, and he had mediocre RBs along with a terrible offensive line in Detroit.

And now he is on a team that has 0 QB, a below average O line, and a questionable set of WRs.

But your last point actually works for Gore.Detroit has two STUD receivers. If that's the strength of your team, get them the ball.

Since SF's receivers are really poor, that equates to All Gore, All The Time... rushing and receiving.

Football 101 With no passing threat and a questionable O line... how many men in the box would you put against Frank Gore??

Football 102Who is left to stop the RB from scoring if he makes it past "the box"?

Of course, that's a valid point. That probably had a lot to do with many of Peterson's long runs. They stacked the box to stop him, but once he got past that, there was no one to stop him from going all the way.

 

[bucsbaby]

Last year was Gore's floor.

Minor injury that kept him out of training camp. Death of his mom earlier in the season. Minor injury during the season. And he STILL put up very respectable numbers. Yes, he plays on a poor offensive team, but he also plays in a weak division, has a nice run schedule, is healthy, and ready to rock and roll. In ppr he will be a stud. In ppr/dynasty where I have him as my #1 RB I think he is a superstar given his youth and touches/game.

 

[xenith]

Last year was Gore's floor.

Minor injury that kept him out of training camp. Death of his mom earlier in the season. Minor injury during the season. And he STILL put up very respectable numbers. Yes, he plays on a poor offensive team, but he also plays in a weak division, has a nice run schedule, is healthy, and ready to rock and roll. In ppr he will be a stud. In ppr/dynasty where I have him as my #1 RB I think he is a superstar given his youth and touches/game.

My league is 1 player optional keeper (3 yrs max), PPR. I'm not retaining anyone, so should be 1 of 2 teams to pick a keeper, basically 9th/10th pick if you look at it that way. Gore should be available, and I'm takin him. The PPR aspect alone bumps his value significantly. For non-PPR tho, the risk is too high.

 

[vincentvega722]

Matthew Berry has had some good predictions but avoiding Frank Gore this year in the 1st round is ridiculous. The 49ers had the worst offense last season with a first year offensive coordinator in Jim Hostler and yet, Gore still managed to put up solid stats. If you want to look more closely, in week 12, the 49ers hired Ted Tollner to be a offensive consultant to help out the young offensive coordinator. Starting from that week, Gore averaged 93 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards. He also had 3 total touchdowns in those 6 weeks. If he would've done that through 16 games, he would be having another 2000 yard season. Add that with Mike Martz whom absolutely loves Gore's talent, some solid receivers, and a good defense that can help keep the team in games, and you might have a possible 2000 yards and 8+ touchdown season for Frank Gore. That's crazy upside to avoid.