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My Annual Week 1 Reminder to Take a Deep Breath (1 Viewer)

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Fantasy Football is 16 weeks. Throughout those 16 weeks, every player will have some down weeks. Last year Ja'Marr Chase had 2 games with single digit ppr games. So did Jonathan Taylor. Kelce had 4. Even the best players have dud weeks. Sometimes they happen in the fantasy playoffs and they kill us. Sometimes they happen week 6 and nobody remembers. Sometimes those bad games happen week 1.

So take a deep breath and think about where we were 1 year ago. Week 1 2021 saw the following...

Aaron Rodgers threw for 138 yards, 0 TDs and 2 Interceptions to finish as the QB32 for the week. He went on to win MVP.
Michael Pittman caught 3 passes for 29 yards. Top 20 WR for the year.
Najee Harris and James Conner combined for 10.4 PPR points. Both finished as Top 5 PPR RBs in total points.
Mark Andrews was TE33. The TE1 for 2021.


Of course the inverse happens too. Week 1 can be a mirage. We might see an oasis of points but find a barren landscape.

Inhale and exhale some of these 2021 Week 1 performances...

Jared Goff was the QB6 after throwing for 338 yards, 3 TDs and just 1 INT. That was his highest scoring fantasy game of his season by a significant margin.
Jalen Reagor caught all 6 of his targets and scored, making him WR25 for the week. He did not have a sophomore season breakout. Not even close.
Ty'Son Williams was the RB9. Three weeks later he's fallen so far that the Ravens make him a healthy scratch.
Darren Waller got 19 targets going 10/105/1. He only scored 1 more TD all season as well as only having 1 more 100 yard game.
 
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TapRackBang

Footballguy
I think this is good advice. The older I get, the more I realize you should not do what the majority of people are doing.
And it applies to a lot of things, not just fantasy. There's a herd mentality and being part of the herd makes you 'average' for lack of a better term.
Be patient, read the tea leaves and be ready to pounce.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Who is this year's...

Aaron Rodgers (worst to first QB): It could be Rodgers again since he once again finished in the 30s at QB this week. However, my votes goes to Matt Stafford. That was a really tough opening match-up. He has the weapons to still turn in a QB1 season. I am not worried. Brady also seems like the obvious answer here.

Michael Pittman (young WR who's breakout is still happening this year): Devonta Smith was held catchless but this is a 1st round pick and Heisman winner. His ceiling is capped due to situation but don't drop him. He's going to be a weekly WR2-3 starter.

Najee/Conner (RB1 rocketships on a slightly delayed launch time): Alvin Kamara is one the best fantasy players of recent memory. He's not done yet. The Texans' can't keep up the charade with Burkhead. It's only a matter of time before Pierce gets massive volume.
 
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TZMarkie

Footballguy
The Texans' can't keep up the charade with Burkhead. It's only a matter of time before Pierce gets massive volume.


I addressed this in the Pierce thread. I'm actually stoked that he got 11 touches. He has a clear path to strong workload, and that usually turns into RB2 numbers or higher.
I said it in the other thread, if you think Rex Burkhead is going to finish with more touches than Pierce this season (barring injury or something unforeseen).... then I have some bad news for you.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Jared Goff (QB performance you can ignore): Yeah I am not buying Wentz. Let's see them play a game that isn't home against Jacksonville.

Jalen Reagor (WR that isn't actually breaking out this year): Kind of ties into the above but I don't think Jahan Dotson is a weekly starter this year. Unlike Reagor, Dotson has a bright future ahead of him. By ahead of him, I mean 2023.

Ty'Son Williams (he will be a healthy scratch before he's an RB1 again): Obviously Dontrell Hilliard.

Mark Andrews (The TE1): Kyle Pitts is inevitable.
 
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need2know

Footballguy
Fantasy Football is 16 weeks. Throughout those 16 weeks, every player will have some down weeks. Last year Ja'Marr Chase had 2 games with single digit ppr games. So did Jonathan Taylor. Kelce had 4. Even the best players have dud weeks. Sometimes they happen in the fantasy playoffs and they kill us. Sometimes they happen week 6 and nobody remembers. Sometimes those bad games happen week 1.

So take a deep breath and think about where we were 1 year ago. Week 1 2021 saw the following...

Aaron Rodgers threw for 138 yards, 0 TDs and 2 Interceptions to finish as the QB32 for the week. He went on to win MVP.
Michael Pittman caught 3 passes for 29 yards. Top 20 WR for the year.
Najee Harris and James Conner combined for 10.4 PPR points. Both finished as Top 5 PPR RBs in total points.
Mark Andrews was TE33. The TE1 for 2021.


Of course the inverse happens too. Week 1 can be a mirage. We might see an oasis of points but find a barren landscape.

Inhale and exhale some of these 2021 Week 1 performances...

Jared Goff was the QB6 after throwing for 338 yards, 3 TDs and just 1 INT. That was his highest scoring fantasy game of his season by a significant margin.
Jalen Reagor caught all 6 of his targets and scored, making him WR25 for the week. He did not have a sophomore season breakout. Not even close.
Ty'Son Williams was the RB9. Three weeks later he's fallen so far that the Ravens make him a healthy scratch.
Darren Waller got 19 targets going 10/105/1. He only scored 1 more TD all season as well as only having 1 more 100 yard game.

I'm guessing you lost week 1?
 

habsfan

Footballguy
Just the usual week one over reactions.
Cool. Was just thinking we could also discuss specific situations and whether they deserve panic or not. There are certainly a lot RBs giving fantasy managers heartburn today.
A slight variation on this is looking at offences in general. A lot of o-line injuries in the headlines already so some of the worry can be attributed to that but some of these offences are probably just showing rust while others would seem to be in deep trouble.

I'd be worried about Cowboys for one as it looks like we're going to see 8 weeks of the Dalton-led Cowboys minus Dalton.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Darren Waller got 19 targets going 10/105/1. He only scored 1 more TD all season as well as only having 1 more 100 yard game.

thank you for triggering my FFPTSD

Going up against Waller in my main league

was up by 10.86 when it was 1st and goal from the 10

It was virtually a mathematical impossibility I could lose

catch + 10 yards + TD = 8 points

Waller was at 8-85 = 16.5

best he could get to was 9-95-1 = 24.5

HOLDING ON LEATHERWOOD

catch, catch, 20 yards, TD, +1 bonus for going over 100

10-105-1 = 26.5 + 1 bonus = 27.5

I just lost by 0.14

to quote Furio Giunta, “stupida ####### game”
 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Big fan of NFL Network running their "season long" rankings on their bottom line. Hopefully it causes one of my league mates to do something stupid.
 

LionOfGosforth

Footballguy
Jared Goff (QB performance you can ignore): Yeah I am not buying Wentz. Let's see them play a game that isn't home against Jacksonville.

Jalen Reagor (WR that isn't actually breaking out this year): Kind of ties into the above but I don't think Jahan Dotson is a weekly starter this year. Unlike Reagor, Dotson has a bright future ahead of him. By ahead of him, I mean 2023.

Ty'Son Williams (he will be a healthy scratch before he's an RB1 again): Obviously Dontrell Hilliard.

Mark Andrews (The TE1): Kyle Pitts is inevitable.

Quite bold after week 1 but I sure hope you're right (y)
 
I think another thing that goes along this reaction thread would be the change in pre-season. Starters barely play now, before we used to get a real “sneak peek” in the 3rd week pre-season.

Some take a little longer to start “gelling”, that might become a thing with this new schedule!!?

Great thread and many great examples used!
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I heard Sig Bloom mention some research from Adam Harstad. It’s that until week 4, ADP is more predictive than any in season data.
 

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