Take a Deep Breath, It's Just One Week (2 Viewers)

[Ilov80s]

This is a thread I post every year to remind everyone that we give an oversized importance to the results of week 1. A player has a bad game in week 8, oh well, it happens. A player has a bad game in week 1 and we start wildly swinging expectations. Here are some examples from last year's week 1 to show that we shouldn't always read too much into 1 game.

WR
Curtis Samuel, Michael Pittman, Devin Duvernay and Robbie Anderson were all top 12 WRs for the week. A lot of FAAB was wasted on some of those guys and those who took Pittman early were certain they had themselves a WR1 for the season.

Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb had 2 for 29, Tyler Lockett was WR 75, Tee Higgins only had 2 targets, Amari Cooper went 3 for 17. They were all out scored by the likes of Anthony Schwartz, Marvin Jones and Ashton Dulin.

RB
James Robinson was RB9 while ETN was RB40. Funny how quickly that situation flipped. Antonio Gibson was RB12, Derrick Henry was RB35. Josh Jacobs only had 11 touches while Michael Carter had 17.

TE
OJ Howard caught 2 TDs and we thought maybe this was the year he finally breaks out and delivers on all his potential. He hasn't caught a TD since.

QB
Carson Wentz was the QB3, surely he was back. Mariota ran for 72 yards on a top 10 QB performance which seemed to give him a nice safe floor meanwhile Fields only ran for 28 yards.

 

[Judge Smails]

Yep. And almost zero preseason work leads to huge rust. Can’t place too much stock in week 1

 

[Galileo]

Carson Wentz was the QB3

He actually put together 2 monster weeks at the beginning of the season. I then ruined him and sealed his fate when I picked him up to replace a broken Dak Prescott.

 

[Uncle Leo]

This seals it. Swift will be the stud I expected him to be when I drafted him. It was 100% rust. Same with Herbert and OBJ. Thanks for reminding me that week 1 does not matter.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I reached a state of Zen on Sunday after Dobbins went down. As if gears long ago sealed against time were reawakened. A new state of consciousness arose. This is football. This is fantasy football. Where chaos rules supreme. Cam Akers from the presumed starter to Henderson's waterboy to a functional accessory to many a championship belt.

Like when Lloyd Christmas fights the chef. When fantasy football hits you in the mouth, come up singing, wipe the blood from the corner of your mouth and rip its heart out.

Who will it be? Surely Kendrick Bourne, Rasheed Shaheed or Puka Nakua will bring your lineup the punch you needed. Or was that going to be Justice Hill or Kyren Williams? Heaven forfend Tutu Atwell- who still believes in you Tutu? Who? Jefferson- not that one- maybe he's him.

Good luck on your waivers gents. The game's afoot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

We’re supposed to have an overreactions topic.

 

[Ilov80s]

We’re supposed to have an overreactions topic.

Yin and Yang my man

 

[Ilov80s]

This seals it. Swift will be the stud I expected him to be when I drafted him. It was 100% rust. Same with Herbert and OBJ. Thanks for reminding me that week 1 does not matter.

I could have included Swift as well. He had a monster week 1 and was looking totally worth that 1st/2nd round draft capital people spent.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Folks, this is a year in which the Detroit Lions are contending for a Super Bowl berth. Expect to see a lot of stuff you’ve never seen before.

Like 3 rookie TEs finishing Top 12.

It’s gonna be a weird season.

 

[zamboni]

This should be embedded in the waiver wire/FAAB thread. A lot of folks - and I'm sure I'm one of them - are going to way overbid on players whose value will soon evaporate.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Also, might be worth considering we probably won’t see too many weeks where 8-9 games played in a downpour. We’re in an era where offensive starters don’t get adequate reps in preseason & execution is poor to open the year.

It gets better. Offensive lines gel, receivers get on the same page as their quarterbacks, coordinators expand the play sheet.

 

[zamboni]

Also, might be worth considering we probably won’t see too many weeks where 8-9 games played in a downpour.

For sure. Usually we have these discussions in December when the weather turns, but perhaps the fantasy community in general didn't expect weather to play such a factor in week 1, and wasn't discussed much.