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Every Shark has a weakness.. (1 Viewer)

In redraft leagues I've often made the mistake of trying to end the season with no depth. So I slowly trade away my depth as the season progresses to improve my starters for the playoffs. It's worked a few times but it's at best a push.

 
In the past I've made the mistake of getting a little too fancy with my picks. I was prone to going for the "high upside" guys like Quincy Morgan, Onterrio Smith, Lee Suggs, Tyrone Calico, Adrian McPherson, and Matt Jones.

These days I take a more conservative approach. When evaluating rookie prospects and unproven players, I tend to look at draft position and production more than message board hype and "upside." I no longer reach for prospects with character issues or for "raw" prospects who have "huge upside." A guy like RB Chris Henry is a great example. He's a workout warrior who never produced. These guys never seem to pan out. Tyrone Calico and Quincy Morgan are out of football. Meanwhile modest, but productive athletes like Mark Clayton and Santonio Holmes have made a smooth transition to the NFL.

Also, I'm much more reluctant to assume that a given prospect will break out. If you look at the dynasty rankings of guys like DeAngelo Williams, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, DJ Hackett, Vincent Jackson, and Brandon Marshall, it's clear that the rankings don't necessarily lend adequate consideration to the risk side of the risk vs. reward equation. I have no doubt that many of these guys will eventually become stars, but some of their rankings leave no margin for error. That's a bad thing.

Never assume that a player will break out. Always consider the probability that he'll disappoint just like countless other "next big things" have in the past. There are dozens of guys like TJ Duckett, Michael Bennett, William Green, Tyrone Calico, Lee Suggs, and Quincy Morgan lingering in the FF graveyard.

I make exceptions in cases where the player is clearly a rare talent (i.e. Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Lee Evans).

FF isn't that complicated. If all you do is draft good players, you should end up with a good team. Don't overthink things. Just take good players and take them at a fair cost. Where you get into trouble is when you start overpaying for unknowns and bank on breakouts that may or may not happen.

 
One mistake I make (and I'm guessing many others on this board make as well) is reading a lot of information on players that has minor impact on their actual overall fantasy value. We tend to think having a lot of information at your disposal leads to better decision making, but studies have shown that giving people (even people with a lot of experience in a particular field) a lot of info can actually produce poorer decision making on their part because they tend to give too much weight to more minor pieces of information and therefore minimize more important pieces of information. While the individual impact of each piece of information may be small, the cumulative decision-making effects can be pronounced with a lot of individual pieces of data.
Like trying to decide on who to keep between LJ and Addai? Analyzing both situations to where you have so much information you are confident that no matter what you do you will choose the wrong guy? Yeah, I'm having a breakdown right now on this decision. :lmao:
Actually, I did this last year. Stephen Jackson was dinged up and the Rams had just picked up Stephen Davis. I passed on the opportunity to draft Jackson and instead got LaMont Jordan in the first round. :coffee:
 
Sometimes I draft so many great players that I have trouble deciding who to start each week. :rant: :thumbup:
And as a result leave my touchdowns on the bench.I will NOT draft a TE early this year. As for a QB, I will get one I consider a top 6 for once. :mellow:
 
my biggest weakness is I always drop players after week 1 and 2 who I was very high on when I drafted them cause they did not play well in the first few weeks. Then they end up having top 10-15 years.
Hmm, I bet you are talking about Lee Evans. I kept him :football:
 
Denver running backs. They always end up breaking my heard. D^mn you Shanny!!!
thats satanhan to you, mister...* i'm like some others in that at times i overvalue youth, pedigree & potential & undervalue age, experience & proven production...
 
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I guess my problem would be risk aversion early in the draft, specifically avoiding a lot of the 2nd year "stud Rb's" (i.e. Maroney's). It cuts both ways because I do avoid a lot of potential busts (Caddy, R. Brown) but I also miss out on some diamonds as well.

 
I have a consistent weakness. I am very often reluctant to believe in an until then unknown player that has emerged with a series of solid games. I constantly figure, in my mind, that they just hit a few good games and will revert to the mean.I believe in the proven players and am skeptical of the waiver wire guys. And I do the same for rookies. I NEVER draft rookies, and the few that do blow up during the season, I'm always skeptical of them too.I do this every year and it kills me. Last year, it was Maurice Jones Drew and Marques Colston. And probably several other examples.I hate when I do this, but I do it every year.
:goodposting: I do this too. I always miss out on the Colston's of fantasy football because I'm always reluctant to pick up a guy after just one or two good weeks...
 
If a player burns me once, I'll avoid him forever. Usually this means I was probably a year too early and then I miss out on all the good years to come. Not this year though. In my two-man keeper, with the first pick, I'm gonna take TO. Learn from your mistakes.

 
I have drank to much at my last few drafts. This year i am not going to start drinking untill the darft starts...........

 
I tend to take too long to bench underperforming players in the first half of the season if I drafted them highly. Classic example - Chris Warren in 1996.

 
I need to improve on selecting my starting lineups.
Same here. I overthink it too much and seem to always end up making the wrong choice. The problem is magnified by the fact that in the leagues I play in, there are some weaker owners. I tend to have deep teams and there are always some really thought lineup choices.
 
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If I like a guy, I want him in every league I'm in, so I either reach or overpay to get him.
I'm in four different leagues and try to similarize my teams in order root for the same players as I watch the games. The cool thing is that two drafts are at the start of Aug. and they are 30$ so they are like practice. The other two are 100$ at the end of August so I don't need to reach of overspend too much. Oh yeah, and my member number is too high too.
 
- Waiting too long to get a QB....QB was 6 points TD in my league last year....I ended up with Plummer and Brooks, had to scramble for QB's the whole year

- Going too much on potential...My first two picks last year were Cadillac and Ronnie Brown (I had pick 10 in a ten team snake)....I swear I thought I had two top 5 rushers when I picked them..

 
1. I drink :thumbup: Kool-aid from the Shark Pool and it blows up on me. (Wali Lundi my ###!)

2. I tend to remember where I drafted a guy and think about trades from that standpoint. ("I can't trade him. He was my first rounder, and the other guy is offering me a guy he got in the eighth round. I don't care if my first rounder is a stiff, I have to get more for him than that!")

 
[icon] said:
People seriously refer to themselves as sharks? :moneybag:
Yeah, taken awhile for me to get over that but often (and I think so in this case), "shark" is just a short hand way of saying an experienced, serious fantasy fooball player.
 

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