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Explain to me why I should love Gaffney (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter lazyike
- Start date
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason. 
I dunno. What is there to like about free candy?
I dunno. What is there to like about free candy?
Boone22
Footballguy
Decker and Thomas are rookies. Thomas is recovering from an injury and didn't have much work in the preseason. Denver got rid of Scheffler, so their main recieving options for this year are Royal and Gaffney. You don't have to LOVE Gaffney but it probably wouldn't hurt to LIKE him, at least for this season.
Bandwagon? What bandwagon? His cost is as a WR4/5. His downside is ...as a WR4/5 type. His upside is as a low end WR2 (that's the kind of action he had late last year and in the preseason). He appears a solid bet to lead the Broncos in recieving (sorry Royal fans). Most reasonable expectations are for low end 3 production.There's no bandwagon, but he's a strong depth play for an astute owner. You don't have to "swing for the fences" with every late pick.
Because unless your in deep leagues theres a lot of free candy. If I grab him I would have to drop Mike Williams from TB. Also I'm from Minnesota and I've seen and been amazed by Decker-he's the real deal. When he was injured the Gophers had no passing game. When he was in there he was unstoppable.He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason.
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baconisgood
Footballguy
The problem iwith free candy is that you have to go inside some guys windowless van to get it. Worth it? yes.He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason.I dunno. What is there to like about free candy?
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
If you're not in a deep league, there's no reason to love him more than other, equally interesting candidates. He's probably more of a sure thing than more "prospecty" types, with probably a lower ceiling. Pick the type of guy that suits your needs best.Because unless your in deep leagues theres a lot of free candy. If I grab him I would have to drop Mike Williams from TB. Also I'm from Minnesota and I've seen and been amazed by Decker-he's the real deal. When he was injured the Gophers had no passing game. When he was in there he was unstoppable.He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason.
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There's a differance between WR5 free candy on the WW, and WR3 free candy at a WR4/5 pricetag. He won't fit on every roster, but for owners who went heavy in RB's earlier in their draft, he makes a lot of sense. He should not be available in most leagues.Because unless your in deep leagues theres a lot of free candy. If I grab him I would have to drop Mike Williams from TB. Also I'm from Minnesota and I've seen and been amazed by Decker-he's the real deal. When he was injured the Gophers had no passing game. When he was in there he was unstoppable.He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason.
This assesment is fair, but it misses one important fact...Gaffney is much MUCH more likely to hit that somewhat lower upside then the vast majority of those prospects, especially THIS year.Gaffney is not a strong dynasty play...he's just filler in dynasty...but he's under-rated in redraft.If you're not in a deep league, not only is there no reason to love him more than other, equally interesting candidates. He's probably more of a sure thing than more "prospecty" types, with probably a lower ceiling. Pick the type of guy that suits your needs best.Because unless your in deep leagues theres a lot of free candy. If I grab him I would have to drop Mike Williams from TB. Also I'm from Minnesota and I've seen and been amazed by Decker-he's the real deal. When he was injured the Gophers had no passing game. When he was in there he was unstoppable.He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
3.01
Todem
Footballguy
Great late round flier in redrafts and a decent guy to have on your dynasty squad for this season as s top gap for your WR4 (12 team deep leagues of course). In PPR he has upside value for a dirt cheap cost.
No risk really and astute owners have been grabbing him.
Also see Greg Camarillo. If he is out there on your wire grab him, after week one he will not be. I suspect he has a nice game Thursday night and quickly establishes himself has Favre's go to guy and will be one of the hottest pickups in week one waviers.
No risk really and astute owners have been grabbing him.
Also see Greg Camarillo. If he is out there on your wire grab him, after week one he will not be. I suspect he has a nice game Thursday night and quickly establishes himself has Favre's go to guy and will be one of the hottest pickups in week one waviers.
Reason #1:
EN is a basically a pass-heavy O, and Orton should throw 550+ times. With no Marshall, someone is going to catch 80+ balls and your most likely candidate is Gaffney.
Reason #2: Orton got an extension, he is humming in the McDaniels offense and it should run through him a la Brady this year as long as the line holds up. They will be an effective passing team.Reason #3:Gaffney knows the McDaniels offense like the back of his hand (unlike the rooks or Royal, who struggled last year), and a smart QB like Orton will end up leaning on the WR that he KNOWS will be where he is supposed to be.Reason #4:In the preseason game vs DET, you really saw Gaffney and Orton click to the tune of 6-98 (in one half) - Orton was throwing the ball to Gaffney in very tight coverage and Gaffney was making tough catches and moving the chains on a night that the line was not protecting well at all - when times is tough, Gaffney's number will get called a lot.Reason #5
EN is a basically a pass-heavy O, and Orton should throw 550+ times. With no Marshall, someone is going to catch 80+ balls and your most likely candidate is Gaffney.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Bloom makes some great points.
Try as I might, I cant convince myself that Jabar Gaffney is anything more than a fantasy WR4 with WR3 upside. I dont think the TDs will be there.
Try as I might, I cant convince myself that Jabar Gaffney is anything more than a fantasy WR4 with WR3 upside. I dont think the TDs will be there.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
He's a lot more expensive than that in the $250 auction subscription contest...pretty sure thats too steep given other options within +/- 25% of his cost there....M Sims-Walker JAX - 20
J Maclin PHI - 20
M Wallace PIT - 19
T Owens CIN - 19
S Moss WAS - 18
T Houshmandzadeh BAL - 18
J Knox CHI - 18
D Hester CHI - 18
M Floyd SD - 17
D Mason BAL - 17
S Breaston ARI - 17
L Evans BUF - 16
J Gaffney DEN - 16
D Thomas WAS - 16
V Jackson SD - 15
D Driver GB - 15
E Royal DEN - 15
R Meachem NO - 14
S Holmes NYJ - 14
D Bryant DAL - 13
K Britt TEN - 13
P Garcon IND - 12
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Got him for $2 in ours. His value is all over the board though. I've seen him go pretty high in higher stakes leagues. I drafted him in the 12th though in another league...NoCheese said:
baconisgood
Footballguy
Last tear passing to players not named Brandon Marshall- Orton 60.7% 6.9 y/a. League averages 60.9% 6.6 y/a. He was average in completing passing into coverage that was below average (since the most attention was clearly defensively on Marshall).
This is a depreciating asset. He knows the system better becasue he has been in it longer- every game that passes his relative advantage should decrease. If you are grabbing him as your #4-5 you might be disappointed when it comes time to start him due to byes/ injuries (although a late pairing with Holmes/Rice could make a lot of sense).
Generally speaking not being able to get separation against Det in the preseason is not indicative of an offense that is "humming". From a raw numbers persepctive in preseason their passing offense looked good against a bad team (DET) Ok against a better team (CIN) and poor against a good team (PIT). Gaffney had 4/45/0 in the Cin and Pit games combined and Royal had 4/48/1 in those two games. Gaffney looks a lot less like a steal when he has to play better defenses.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I think he would have been a nice sleeper pick. I'm not sure he is right now because he's been "exposed" by too many people. I think the reports of how cheaply you can get him are being very exaggerated.
While Bloom makes some good points, here is the other side:
Gaffney has been in the league for 8 years already. He has never had more than the 732 yards he got last year.
He has had more than 2 TDs in a season exactly once - the year Brady threw 50 of 'em and he caught 5 (meaning he got 10% of the team's passing TDs that year
). Almost his entire production last year came in two games, one of which (the big one) was against an awful KC team in the last game of the season.
He has never had as good a year as Eddie Royal had in his rookie year (by a long shot).
All in all, his draftability depends on the league and the price. If he really is dirt cheap in your league, sure - go ahead and grab him. But don't overspend because it's very possible he blew his wad in two games last year and will go back to being what his career numbers say he is.
While Bloom makes some good points, here is the other side:
Gaffney has been in the league for 8 years already. He has never had more than the 732 yards he got last year.
He has had more than 2 TDs in a season exactly once - the year Brady threw 50 of 'em and he caught 5 (meaning he got 10% of the team's passing TDs that year
). Almost his entire production last year came in two games, one of which (the big one) was against an awful KC team in the last game of the season.He has never had as good a year as Eddie Royal had in his rookie year (by a long shot).
All in all, his draftability depends on the league and the price. If he really is dirt cheap in your league, sure - go ahead and grab him. But don't overspend because it's very possible he blew his wad in two games last year and will go back to being what his career numbers say he is.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
Obviously at that price, he'd be a stupid buy.SeniorVBDStudent said:
In my Keep 3, I waited on a WR3 and ended up with Gaffney and Lee Evans on back-to-back picks. I agree with many of Bloom's points, but one thing that I think people need to take notice of is that he is incredibly streaky. I posted this in another thread (can't seem to find it), but he always seems to have a couple of very good games each year (ironically towards the end of the year), with the rest being absolutely unstartable.The real question with Gaffney is the following: Is Gaffney really good, but never gets an opportunity to shine over the course of a season? Or, is he really not that good, has played beyond his ability in a couple of key situations and he looks better than he is? If he is really that good, why can he never beat out his competition (of course, he would not beat out Moss and Welker, but in the other places he was)?SeniorVBDStudent said:
baconisgood
Footballguy
Games 1-15 the Broncos were on pace for ~520 total passes (Orton was on pace for 517) over 16 games. Game 16 they threw 56 times against KC, the Broncos had 2 games last season where they threw for 300+ yards and had 8 games above 33 attempts and and games below 33 attempts (33 was the average number of passing attempts per game in the NFL last year). The Broncos passing game last year was an average one for most of the season WITH Marshall, Scheffler and Clady not coming of ACL surgery.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I dont know about stupid, but I'd probably take one of the guys in blue before Gaffney...
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
People are giving up on Royal because he had a down year. This year, I expect Royal to play the part of Wes Welker and lead the team in receptions. McDaniels would like Gaffney to play the part of Randy Moss, but he's not Randy Moss. I expect Prater to be a great play this year as the red zone offense will struggle mightily...
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I have him down around WR26, just below Malcom Floyd (PPR). I can see them putting up similar stats this year.
Denver as a whole is just getting ignored in drafts because of all the injuries.
But you can't write them off. They'll still go out and play 16 games, and history has shown that an 0-16 team can still provide low-end fantasy starters. Gaffney is the only Bronco worth looking at, though Orton has a chance to surprise.
Denver as a whole is just getting ignored in drafts because of all the injuries.
But you can't write them off. They'll still go out and play 16 games, and history has shown that an 0-16 team can still provide low-end fantasy starters. Gaffney is the only Bronco worth looking at, though Orton has a chance to surprise.
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Babu Bhatt2
Footballguy
He's handsome, he's a gentleman, and he's rich.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Was it a "playing the end game" article that offered the good advice of "not drafting Antwaan Randel-El's"?
That's all I see here.
That's all I see here.
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baconisgood
Footballguy
When a team is very bad and they have fantasy relevant players its almost always because of one of two reasons.1. The player is uber talented- Ie Calvin Johnson or S Jax2. The player is force fed the ball due to a lack of options- ie Kevin Smith.#2 is very hard for receivers as even RBs on bad teams get 3.5 y/c but receivers can just be blanketed and QBs can be pressured into throwing the ball away.
baconisgood
Footballguy
I'll put it this way
Lee Evans has been a massive disappointment the past 3 years and can be had for a price close to Gaffney's. Lee Evans 3 year average is 54/826/5 which would be Gaffney's best year by far (his best fantasy season is either a 55/449/5 or a 54/732/2) in fact in 6 years in the league Lee Evans has never put up a fantasy line as BAD as Gaffney's BEST year. This is my primary reason for staying away from Gaffney- there are 2-3 receivers who have much higher floors and ceilings who are going for a similar price.
Urlacher54
Footballguy
I don't think you can look at it that way. Lee Evans has been a starter his whole career. This is the first year Gaffney has not only been named a starter, but is most likely the WR1. A lot can change when somebody gets named the starter after years of backing up. Michael Turner and Derrick Mason come to mind. It is all about opportunity.
baconisgood
Footballguy
Can players break out? Yes. What is the likelihood that a WR who has been in the league for 8 years and been on 3 teams will breakout verses a guy like Lee Evans who has show his top end (1300/8) and still been a relevant (but frustrating) fantasy player when bouncing along his floor. I am simply much happier to bet on a guy like Evans than Gaffney. I am much happier to pass on Gaffney and grab Royal a couple of rounds later as well for similar reasons.
rizzler
Footballguy
If he truly believes he will outproduce those guys, then how is it a bad pick?I sometimes wonder why people base everything off of ADP, or how much of a reach someone was... if he WANTED that player in hopes that at WR4, he would put up WR2 numbers... why wouldn't he 'reach' for him? Should he wait until someone else takes him from his roster?Sometimes I wonder if people are far too focused on ADP... and end up with a team of guys they settled on, instead of a team of guys they wanted.
I'm far less impressed with ADP than the fact that throughout his career Jabar Gaffney has proven many times over that he sucks!
rizzler
Footballguy
last season was the first time he was given a true 'chance' to shine.. he was DEN no2 WR... over 700yds if I remember correctly.He is a no1 WR now, ona team that HAS to pass a lot... what's not to like? someone is going to catch balls. he has shown he can catch them... make yds after the catch... I believe that transitions to points, unless you play in a league where points are based off how cool someones name is.
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baconisgood
Footballguy
Teams that HAD to throw a lot last season (all had >530 pass attempts)WASKCSTLDET SEA (609 ATTEMPS lead the league!!!)CHI
rizzler
Footballguy
Skins - santana moss - 900+ydschiefs - chambers 600+ in only 9 games playedlions - c johnson 908+ in 14 games playedhawks - housh 900+bears - 750+ in only 13 games playedand slam me if you want, I think orton is the best QB on those list of teams (tho I expect stafford to outproduce this season)
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Orton will be much improved this year now that its year 2 in the McDaniels system, the Broncos are seeing it too or else they wouldn't have given him an extension.Even if Gaffney's production drops as Decker/Thomas/Royal improve, he'll still be a great PPR start early in the season while the DEN RBs are ailing, and then he's nice trade bait - and it's not a given that that youngsters improve enough to overtake him in the starting lineup.I'll admit that the protection was bad vs DET, and the offense had fits and starts - but that was without Clady, and the takeaway point here is that when Orton is under fire, he looks to Gaffney, which is a good thing for a fantasy receiver, especially since he made the tough catches to encourage that trust. Royal has the potential to be more productive when the offense is really clicking and the protection and playcalling is effective, but Gaffney is going to be the guy Orton looks to when the bullets are flying.looking at Gaffney's past numbers is inaccurate, hes never had this much opportunity before.
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Muahahaha
Footballguy
Gaffney's career high is 55 receptions. I'd like to see the precedents for a 30 year old WR on his 3rd team setting a career high in receptions given such a low previous high in receptions.
-Keenan McCardell kinda turned things around in 2003 at the age of 32, but he had had multiple 1000+ yard seasons prior to that.
-Joey Galloway also had this same kind of rebound in Tampa at 34, but, again, he had done it before.
I just don't think the precedents are very strong to bet on this guy putting in one of these type of seasons. He would singelhandedly blow away the age/performance charts of WRs. This kind of thing just really doesn't happen.
-Keenan McCardell kinda turned things around in 2003 at the age of 32, but he had had multiple 1000+ yard seasons prior to that.
-Joey Galloway also had this same kind of rebound in Tampa at 34, but, again, he had done it before.
I just don't think the precedents are very strong to bet on this guy putting in one of these type of seasons. He would singelhandedly blow away the age/performance charts of WRs. This kind of thing just really doesn't happen.
baconisgood
Footballguy
That is my point- bad teams that have to throw it a lot have receivers that put up borderline fantasy starters numbers and their #2 WR? Very little. Housh, Santana Calvin and chambers all also had pro bowl selections going into last season. These are gifted receivers struggling to put up good numbers on bad offenses despite throwing the ball a lot. To me these numbers represent Gaffney's upside. His downside is represented by his previous production where he was matched or bettered in production by the likes of Troy Brown (in his mid 30s), Reche Caldwell and Corey Bradford. Remember here that the premise is that this team will HAVE to throw a lot. A lot of poor teams take the opposite track and try to run the ball a lot to control the clock and keep their defense off the field. If you think MCDaniels will fight that trend Brady's attempts482 (2001- entire team attempts)6015274745305165 of the first 6 years of Brady's career were marked by fewer attempts than last years league average (533) and last season's median (542.5). The New England system wasn't some crazy pass happy offense before the arrival of Moss and Welker. If McDaniels is truly a product of the system forcing him to play without an elite WR like Marshall may produce many fewer attempts than last season.
This is specious reasoning- players frequently get paid based on a teams alternatives (see Sproles, Darren) not the absolute value of their contributions. An extension means "good enough given our other options" as frequently as it means "our guy"".
Recent ADP from footballguys109 (+1) Bernard Berrian 113 (+1) Devin Aromashodu 115 (+1) Lee Evans BUF 117 (+1) Santonio Holmes 127 (+6) Mike Williams 129 Devin Hester CHI 132 (+3) Jabar Gaffney 135 (+1) Jerricho Cotchery137 (+1) Eddie Royal 139 (+8) Kenny Britt TEN 140 Austin Collie IND 141 (+1) Sidney Rice 149 (+2) Mohamed Massaquoi 150 (+2) Nate Burleson 151 (+3) Jacoby Jones Essentially all of these receivers will get opportunity on par with Gaffney (Cotchery clearly wont barring injuries and Rice is here because of his injury)- half of them have produced in the past (BB, Evans, Santonio, Hester, Royal, Burleson) and there are young high draft picks (Mass, Mike williams, Britt) and guys who look good in preseason and limited action (Aromashodu, Jones)- who are you taking Gaffney over on this list?
my rankings are a part of the subscription service, but I can tell you that I have Gaffney at WR38 in PPR, as opposed to the WR44 he is in that latest ADPAs far as Orton's extension it seems pretty simple to me, they wouldnt guarantee him 5.5M NEXT YEAR, if they didnt like what he was doing, as opposed to the Sproles example which is a year-to-year decision from a team in a championship window, and one that had a starting RB they didnt trust in one year and had no starting RB to speak on the roster the next year.
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
First off, if you're that stacked at WR, then why are you even worried about it? He's obviously bench fodder for you if those are the guys you're considering picking up or dropping. Either way, it probably won't make a difference in winning a championship.In my 12-team league, I had to draft him but I drafted these guys at the position ahead of him:R. WhiteP. GarconJ. KnoxI got Jacoby Jones and BMW later. Bottom line - it's all about value with this guy. If you're picking him up off the waiver wire then you're getting him at a bargain. In most leagues, he's a late round draft pick WR4/WR5 kind of guy which translates to a bye week filler. In my case, if any of my last three picks at the position hit then it will be just be a bonus.lazyike said:Because unless your in deep leagues theres a lot of free candy. If I grab him I would have to drop Mike Williams from TB. Also I'm from Minnesota and I've seen and been amazed by Decker-he's the real deal. When he was injured the Gophers had no passing game. When he was in there he was unstoppable.Happy Ragnarok said:He costs nothing, produced at the end of last year, and continues to produce this preseason.I dunno. What is there to like about free candy?
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baconisgood
Footballguy
I have the subscription service
My point was that the "pros" for Gaffney apply to many of the WR being picked around him, which is why I don't like Gaffney as some those other receivers have the same pros AND a track record.
As for Orton's contract I didn't say that Denver hated Orton-0 but that the bolded
Is poor reasoning. Orton's contract is no where near big enough for an NFL QB to say that Denver firmly believes he will improve this season. His performance the past 2 seasons is enough on its own to justify it. You could explain Orton's contract just as well by saying "they have Tebow but don't know if it will take 1 year or 3 years for him to be ready to start- better to keep a decent option like Orton around until we know"- just like for Sproles' contract you can tell a story about a championship team having uncertainty in their backfield rather than the Chargers necessarily. No need to jump to conclusions.
