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Factoring 4- and 5-year Free Agents (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
We're still not out of the woods, but I think we can all admit (or at least hope) that the recent news is encouraging on the labor front. One of the most interesting aspects of the CBA proposal that was leaked yesterday was that unrestricted free agency would be granted to players after four years of service time. A lot of people, ourselves included, had assumed that that was a bit of a long shot -- or at the very least something that was worked in gradually.

Assuming that yesterday's reports are correct, that DRAMATICALLY changes the potential free agent landscape. This effects not only teams with needs, but also potentially creates new holes and needs that teams might not have been expecting, depending on whether they're able to get some of their 4- and 5-year guys to re-up.

I thought it would be interesting to highlight the potential free agents with 4 or 5 years of service time, and talk through what that might mean for the overall class at their position, as well as the teams who may need to think about an alternative if they lose them.

 
Here are the potential 4- and 5-year free agents, at the offensive skill positions:

Quarterbacks (4- and 5-years of service)

QB Troy Smith 49ers 4

QB Brodie Croyle Chiefs 5

QB Tyler Thigpen Dolphins 4

QB Trent Edwards Jaguars 4

QB Kellen Clemens Jets 5

QB Drew Stanton Lions 4

QB Matt Moore Panthers 4

QB Bruce Gradkowski Raiders 4

QB Matt Leinart Texans 5

QB Tarvaris Jackson Vikings 5

Running Backs (4- and 5-years of service)

RB Garrett Wolfe Bears 4

RB Brian Leonard Bengals 4

RB Laurence Maroney Broncos 5

RB Kyle Eckel Broncos 4

RB Mike Bell Browns 5

RB Lawrence Vickers Browns 5

RB Jackie Battle Chiefs 4

RB Tim Castille Chiefs 4

RB Joseph Addai Colts 5

RB Patrick Cobbs Dolphins 5

RB Jerome Harrison Eagles 5

RB Jerious Norwood Falcons 5

RB Jason Snelling Falcons 4

RB Ahmad Bradshaw Giants 4

RB John Kuhn Packers 5

RB Brandon Jackson Packers 4

RB Korey Hall Packers 4

RB DeAngelo Williams Panthers 5

RB Michael Bush Raiders 4

RB Le'Ron McClain Ravens 4

RB DeShawn Wynn Saints 4

RB Michael Robinson Seahawks 5

RB Ahmard Hall Titans 5

RB Naufahu Tahi Vikings 5

Wide Receivers (4- and 5-years of service)

WR Chansi Stuckey Browns 4

WR Maurice Stovall Bucs 5

WR Steve Breaston Cardinals 4

WR Malcom Floyd Chargers 5

WR Legedu Naanee Chargers 4

WR Sam Hurd Cowboys 5

WR Derek Hagan Giants 5

WR Steve Smith Giants 4

WR Mike Sims-Walker Jaguars 4

WR Santonio Holmes Jets 5

WR Brad Smith Jets 5

WR Brian Clark Lions 4

WR James Jones Packers 4

WR Johnnie Lee Higgins Raiders 4

WR Laurent Robinson Rams 4

WR Lance Moore Saints 5

WR Courtney Roby Saints 5

WR Ruvell Martin Seahawks 5

WR Isaiah Stanback Seahawks 4

WR Jacoby Jones Texans 4

WR Hank Baskett Vikings 5

WR Sidney Rice Vikings 4

Tight Ends (4- and 5-years of service)

TE Greg Estandia Browns 4

TE Ben Patrick Cardinals 4

TE Stephen Spach Cardinals 4

TE Leonard Pope Chiefs 5

TE Kevin Boss Giants 4

TE Marcedes Lewis Jaguars 5

TE Jeff King Panthers 5

TE Dante Rosario Panthers 4

TE Zach Miller Raiders 4

TE Daniel Fells Rams 4

TE Darcy Johnson Rams 4

TE Derek Schouman Rams 4

TE Tory Humphrey Saints 5

TE David Thomas Saints 5

TE Matt Spaeth Steelers 4

 
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Here are the offensive line eligible 4- and 5-year FAs:

Offensive Tackle

OT Ryan Harris Broncos 4

OT Jeremy Trueblood Bucs 5

OT D'Anthony Batiste Cardinals 4

OT Jeromey Clary Chargers 4

OT Ryan O'Callaghan Chiefs 5

OT Charlie Johnson Colts 5

OT Doug Free Cowboys 4

OT Pat McQuistan Dolphins 5

OT Tyson Clabo Falcons 5

OT Rob Petitti Panthers 4

OT Mario Henderson Raiders 4

OT Tony Moll Ravens 5

OT Jared Gaither Ravens 4

OT Stephon Heyer Redskins 4

OT Zach Strief Saints 5

OT Jermon Bushrod Saints 4

OT Willie Colon Steelers 5

OT Jonathan Scott Steelers 4

OT Rashad Butler Texans 5

Offensive Guard

OG Davin Joseph Bucs 5

OG Deuce Lutui Cardinals 5

OG Cory Procter Dolphins 5

OG Nick Cole Eagles 5

OG Max Jean-Gilles Eagles 5

OG Harvey Dahl Falcons 5

OG Justin Blalock Falcons 4

OG Kevin Boothe Giants 5

OG Daryn Colledge Packers 5

OG Quinn Ojinnaka Patriots 5

OG Mark Setterstrom Rams 5

OG Chris Chester Ravens 5

OG Marshal Yanda Ravens 4

OG Kasey Studdard Texans 4

OG Leroy Harris Titans 4

OG Ryan Cook Vikings 5

Center

C Ben Claxton Cardinals 4

C Lyle Sendlein Cardinals 4

C Rudy Niswanger Chiefs 5

C Dylan Gandy Lions 5

C Jason Spitz Packers 5

C Ryan Kalil Panthers 4

C Chris Morris Panthers 4

C Samson Satele Raiders 4

 
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Here are the defensive players that would potentially join the FA ranks:

Cornerback

CB Corey Graham Bears 4

CB Johnathan Joseph Bengals 5

CB Ashton Youboty Bills 5

CB Eric Wright Browns 4

CB Dante Hughes Chargers 4

CB Dimitri Patterson Eagles 5

CB Drew Coleman Jets 5

CB Antonio Cromartie Jets 5

CB Tye Hill Lions 4

CB Chris Houston Lions 4

CB Brandon McDonald Lions 4

CB Richard Marshall Panthers 5

CB C.J. Wilson Panthers 4

CB Kevin Dockery Rams 5

CB Josh Wilson Ravens 4

CB Leigh Torrence Saints 5

CB Kelly Jennings Seahawks 5

CB Anthony Madison Steelers 5

CB William Gay Steelers 4

Safety

S Dashon Goldson 49ers 4

S Danieal Manning Bears 5

S Chinedum Ndukwe Bengals 4

S Donte Whitner Bills 5

S Abram Elam Browns 5

S Sabby Piscitelli Browns 4

S Hamza Abdullah Cardinals 5

S Pat Watkins Chargers 5

S Paul Oliver Chargers 4

S Eric Weddle Chargers 4

S Melvin Bullitt Colts 4

S Antoine Harris Eagles 4

S Michael Johnson Giants 4

S Eric Smith Jets 5

S James Ihedigbo Jets 4

S John Wendling Lions 4

S Atari Bigby Packers 5

S Anthony Smith Packers 5

S Marcus Hudson Panthers 5

S Gerald Alexander Panthers 4

S Jarrad Page Patriots 5

S Michael Huff Raiders 5

S Hiram Eugene Raiders 4

S Dawan Landry Ravens 5

S Reed Doughty Redskins 5

S Roman Harper Saints 5

S Usama Young Saints 4

S Chris Reis Saints 4

S Bernard Pollard Texans 5

S Eric Frampton Vikings 4

Outside Linebacker

OLB Manny Lawson 49ers 5

OLB Brian Iwuh Bears 5

OLB Nick Roach Bears 4

OLB Brandon Johnson Bengals 5

OLB Jason Trusnik Browns 4

OLB Quincy Black Bucs 4

OLB Adam Hayward Bucs 4

OLB Tamba Hali Chiefs 5

OLB Clint Session Colts 4

OLB Quentin Moses Dolphins 4

OLB Ernie Sims Eagles 5

OLB Akeem Jordan Eagles 4

OLB Stephen Nicholas Falcons 4

OLB Gerris Wilkinson Giants 5

OLB Justin Durant Jaguars 4

OLB James Anderson Panthers 5

OLB Jamar Williams Panthers 5

OLB Thomas Howard Raiders 5

OLB Kamerion Wimbley Raiders 5

OLB Jarvis Moss Raiders 4

OLB Prescott Burgess Ravens 4

OLB Chris Wilson Redskins 4

OLB Will Herring Seahawks 4

OLB LaMarr Woodley Steelers 4

OLB Zach Diles Texans 4

OLB Chad Greenway Vikings 5

Inside Linebacker

ILB Keith Ellison Bills 5

ILB Paul Posluszny Bills 4

ILB D'Qwell Jackson Browns 5

ILB Brandon Siler Chargers 4

ILB Corey Mays Chiefs 5

ILB Leon Williams Cowboys 4

ILB Omar Gaither Eagles 5

ILB Stewart Bradley Eagles 4

ILB Lance Laury Jets 5

ILB David Harris Jets 4

ILB Bobby Carpenter Lions 5

ILB Abdul Hodge Panthers 5

ILB Ricky Brown Raiders 5

ILB Rocky McIntosh Redskins 5

ILB H.B. Blades Redskins 4

ILB Marvin Mitchell Saints 4

ILB Stephen Tulloch Titans 5

Defensive End

DE Ray McDonald 49ers 4

DE John McCargo Bills 5

DE Marcus Thomas Broncos 4

DE Jayme Mitchell Browns 5

DE Derreck Robinson Browns 4

DE Tim Crowder Bucs 4

DE Stylez G White Bucs 4

DE Antwan Barnes Chargers 4

DE Keyunta Dawson Colts 4

DE Stephen Bowen Cowboys 5

DE Jason Hatcher Cowboys 5

DE Tony McDaniel Dolphins 5

DE Victor Abiamiri Eagles 4

DE Mathias Kiwanuka Giants 5

DE Dave Tollefson Giants 4

DE Turk McBride Lions 4

DE Charles Johnson Panthers 4

DE Kedric Golston Redskins 5

DE Jeff Charleston Saints 4

DE Jay Richardson Seahawks 4

DE Mark Anderson Texans 5

DE Tim Bulman Texans 4

DE Jacob Ford Titans 4

DE Ray Edwards Vikings 5

Defensive Tackle

DT Gabe Watson Cardinals 5

DT Alan Branch Cardinals 4

DT Antonio Johnson Colts 4

DT Daniel Muir Colts 4

DT Paul Soliai Dolphins 4

DT Thomas Johnson Falcons 4

DT Trey Lewis Falcons 4

DT Barry Cofield Giants 5

DT Derek Landri Panthers 4

DT Gary Gibson Rams 5

DT Clifton Ryan Rams 4

DT Haloti Ngata Ravens 5

DT Remi Ayodele Saints 4

DT Amon Gordon Seahawks 5

DT Brandon Mebane Seahawks 4

DT Junior Siavii Seahawks 4

DT Fred Evans Vikings 5

 
who knows what kind of tags there are??
We have very little to go on right now, but one of the things that was said yesterday is that it was believed tag designations, of some kind, would be maintained. I'm sure the owners would be loathe to give up on the tags for guys they've already planned for THIS season, if tags are removed I HIGHLY expect it'll be for 2012 and beyond. Either way, I wanted to highlight guys that were tagged, because I wanted to avoid the posts of people saying, "Well so and so is tagged and so he's not really on the market."
 
who knows what kind of tags there are??
I thought I heard that the thought was the franchise tag situation would remain unchanged. I know Schefter said currently franchised players will remain franchised because that happened under the old contract before the lockout.
Ya I heard the same, the franchise tag is staying for sure so that means people like Peyton and Marcedes wont be going anywhere. I am curious to see if the other tags hold up.
 
Thanks for posting, it is good stuff.

As a Lions fan, I am salivating over the potential of bringing in any of these players:

OG Harvey Dahl

CB Jonathan Joseph

CB Josh Wilson

S Michael Huff

OLB Rocky McIntosh

ILB Stephen Tulloch

 
On the TE front, the Raiders can ill afford losing Zach Miller. I suspect they'll make re-signing him a huge priority, but you can never know if he's happy in Oakland. If he's not, he could really help out any number of teams who would be willing to commit to him. With Marcedes Lewis franchised, Miller would be the lone premier option at the position, when most GMs expected there to be none.

 
WRs are decent this offseason
Wide Receivers (4- and 5-years of service)WR Chansi Stuckey Browns 4WR Maurice Stovall Bucs 5WR Steve Breaston Cardinals 4WR Malcom Floyd Chargers 5WR Legedu Naanee Chargers 4WR Sam Hurd Cowboys 5WR Derek Hagan Giants 5WR Steve Smith Giants 4WR Mike Sims-Walker Jaguars 4WR Santonio Holmes Jets 5WR Brad Smith Jets 5WR Brian Clark Lions 4WR James Jones Packers 4WR Johnnie Lee Higgins Raiders 4WR Laurent Robinson Rams 4WR Lance Moore Saints 5WR Courtney Roby Saints 5WR Ruvell Martin Seahawks 5WR Isaiah Stanback Seahawks 4WR Jacoby Jones Texans 4WR Hank Baskett Vikings 5WR Sidney Rice Vikings 4I think MOST of these guys situations really don't change all that much. Sims-Walker and the Jags appeared set on parting ways, and the Jets already assumed Holmes was a free agent (although they want to re-sign him obviously). Lance Moore and the Saints both have said they want to remain together, and I can only presume that the Cardinals aren't crying over Breaston since they pretty much relegated him to backup duty last year anyway.I think the most intriguing WRs are Sidney Rice, James Jones and Steve Smith. Smith would normally be a big winner from this free agency change, but his injury situation could put him at risk. I doubt many teams are going to give him a big contract without knowing if he's healthy, so he better hope the Giants are fully committed to him (they have plenty of other WRs in the fold). Rice showed what he can do when healthy, and I think he's all about the ducats (as he should be at his age)...I can see him flying the Vikings coup in a heart beat. Jones is another guy that flashes, but also has drops at inopportune times. I suspect the Packers were totally fine with keeping him at a low tender price, but won't make any effort to match a more substantive offer. Given his age and productivity to date, I suspect some team will sign him with an eye toward competing for a starting job.
 
RBs to watch: Michael Bush; Addai; Bradshaw; Deangelo W.

WRs: Breaston; Sidney Rice; MSW; Steve Smith; Holmes; Lance Moore

TEs: M. Lewis and Zach Miller

It is almost impossible to project the value of these players until we know where they are playing.

I am not so sure that the tags will be retained--at least for the 5 year players. My reasoning is that lowering salaries for rookies appears to be something both parties support and will likely happen. But if that does happen then it would sense for the players to get the freedom of checking out their value on the open market sooner. To have a rookie salary cap that reduces rookie salaries AND make someone wait until their sixth season to have the freedom of getting their real value makes no sense. I suspect the caps would be moved a year shorter.

 
What about Vincent Jackson? He was supposedly tagged before the start of this non-sense?

If new rules are applied, allowing 4/5 year vets to be UFAs, wouldn't he qualify as well?

 
RBs to watch: Michael Bush; Addai; Bradshaw; Deangelo W.It is almost impossible to project the value of these players until we know where they are playing.
It's true it's tough to project these guys w/out knowing their ultimate destination. However, this is a fantasy football message board, and much of what goes on here is predicting what players will do. Let's try to predict where these RBs might end up.RBs-Williams I see as the premier FA RB available. I can see him being successful (FF-wise) in any number of places. Bush would, IMO, have the most FF impact on a team where he would be the main RB, or the lead RB in a RBBC. Bradshaw would appear to be a RB that can have FF success as part of a RBBC (and while I believe he could do fine as THE RB, I don't forsee NFL teams giving him that job). Addai, IMO, will not be in high demand. His "success" seems to be more a result of the Colt's offense, rather than his unique talents.The teams that appear to have a "need" at the RB position are:Denver-with reports suggesting that Moreno may not be the answer as a full-time RB, Williams could land there (especially) with Fox in town. However, I think Bush would be a good fit there, with Moreno having a change-of-pace, 3rd-down role. I don't see Addai or Bradshaw as good fits there.Indy-with Addai possibly being a FA (and not being a stud), and Brown being unimpressive so far. I think Williams or Bradshaw would be good fits here. I think Bush could do well here (his hands are under-rated), but I believe he is viewed as a big back with little to offer in the receiving department, and that won't work in Indy's offense. If none of the FA's go here, I believe Addai will re-sign.Miami-with neither Brown or Williams under contract for next season (yet), rookie Daniel Thomas (who also isn't under contract) is the lead RB in Miami. I believe that they will retain one of their RBs, or sign another to be part of a RBBC with Thomas. Miami doesn't have a strong passing game, and they need to be able to run the ball to be successful. I think any of the 4 FAs we are discussing could be successful there, but (assuming Thomas is signed, and is Miami's main guy) I would be surprised if Williams or Bradshaw ends up there as a complimentary back. I also don't see Bush taking a 2nd-fiddle role when he has done that for the past several years. Addai could be a possibility, as his skill-set seems to compliment Thomas, but I really don't like him much as a runner (just my opinion-Miami may feel differently).NE-the RB situation here is as clear as it usually is, which means not at all. They drafted 2 RBs, but neither has the look of a STUD. They haven't relied on 1 RB for a long time, though, so they may be following the same old M.O. If they were to sign one of these FAs, the player that would excite FF owners would be Williams. I don't see them doing that though. (I don't see them signing any of these 4, to be honest)Dallas-while the 'Boys have Felix Jones, it appears that MBIII may not return. If Jones isn't confident in Jones' ability to hold up to RB1 workload, he might be in the market for one of the FAs. If that is the case, I would think Bush would be the best fit. Jones, while a capable inside runner, would be best served being paired with a RB who would get the tough, short-yardage carries, thereby (hopefully) preserving Jones' health.GB-they have Grant coming back (I think), and they have Starks who stepped up in the playoffs. Brandon Jackson may not return. While they don't NEED to sign a RB, their RB corps isn't super-impressive. I think Bradshaw would fit as a nice complement to Starks, but he might be too expensive. Williams (IMO) will definitely be too expensive, but Addai could be a cheaper alternative. I don't see any of them going there, to be honest.NYG-if Bradshaw doesn't resign, the Giants (IMO) will definitely be in the market for a RB. If they don't re-sign Bradshaw, I doubt they'd cut/trade Jacobs, so I would think they'd be in the market for a change-of-pace type back. I don't think they'd pay Williams enough, but Addai could fit. (I think they'll re-sign Bradshaw & keep Jacobs).Seattle-While I'm not overly impressed with Forsett or Lynch (playoff highlight run not-withstanding), I think Seattle will stand pat with those 2, and won't sign a FA.Washington-I don't see Shanahan signing a FA, but if he does, I would think that his order of preference would be Williams, Bradshaw, and then Bush (cost being a huge factor).
 
On the TE front, the Raiders can ill afford losing Zach Miller. I suspect they'll make re-signing him a huge priority, but you can never know if he's happy in Oakland. If he's not, he could really help out any number of teams who would be willing to commit to him. With Marcedes Lewis franchised, Miller would be the lone premier option at the position, when most GMs expected there to be none.
Actually we already know he wants to stay. At first he showed disappointment that other players were being signed first, then he became excited when they made the tender offer because he knew that meant he'd be staying. He definately wants to stay and Oakland definately wants him to. If he signed elsewhere it would be almost as shocking as Peyton Manning signing with a new team.
 
I'll take these for the Giants please.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw Giants 4

RB John Kuhn Packers or RB Lawrence Vickers Browns or RB Le'Ron McClain Ravens 4

WR Steve Smith Giants 4

TE Zach Miller Raiders 4 or TE Kevin Boss Giants 4

OT Willie Colon Steelers 5

OLB James Anderson Panthers 5

ILB Stephen Tulloch Titans 5 or ILB Paul Posluszny Bills 4

DE Mathias Kiwanuka Giants 5 & DE Dave Tollefson Giants 4

 
On the TE front, the Raiders can ill afford losing Zach Miller. I suspect they'll make re-signing him a huge priority, but you can never know if he's happy in Oakland. If he's not, he could really help out any number of teams who would be willing to commit to him. With Marcedes Lewis franchised, Miller would be the lone premier option at the position, when most GMs expected there to be none.
Actually we already know he wants to stay. At first he showed disappointment that other players were being signed first, then he became excited when they made the tender offer because he knew that meant he'd be staying. He definately wants to stay and Oakland definately wants him to. If he signed elsewhere it would be almost as shocking as Peyton Manning signing with a new team.
Thanks for that :thumbup:
 
On the TE front, the Raiders can ill afford losing Zach Miller. I suspect they'll make re-signing him a huge priority, but you can never know if he's happy in Oakland. If he's not, he could really help out any number of teams who would be willing to commit to him. With Marcedes Lewis franchised, Miller would be the lone premier option at the position, when most GMs expected there to be none.
Actually we already know he wants to stay. At first he showed disappointment that other players were being signed first, then he became excited when they made the tender offer because he knew that meant he'd be staying. He definately wants to stay and Oakland definately wants him to. If he signed elsewhere it would be almost as shocking as Peyton Manning signing with a new team.
Thanks for that :thumbup:
Well, word is he wants to stay, but I'd still like to not have him on the market. But you are right, losing him would be reall tough.
 
'Jason Wood said:
'UnknownCoach said:
'Jason Wood said:
On the TE front, the Raiders can ill afford losing Zach Miller. I suspect they'll make re-signing him a huge priority, but you can never know if he's happy in Oakland. If he's not, he could really help out any number of teams who would be willing to commit to him. With Marcedes Lewis franchised, Miller would be the lone premier option at the position, when most GMs expected there to be none.
Actually we already know he wants to stay. At first he showed disappointment that other players were being signed first, then he became excited when they made the tender offer because he knew that meant he'd be staying. He definately wants to stay and Oakland definately wants him to. If he signed elsewhere it would be almost as shocking as Peyton Manning signing with a new team.
Thanks for that :thumbup:
Here is one link, you can find plenty morehttp://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/zach_miller_thinks_hell_remain_a_raider/4331242The tender offers given to Miller and Bush would pay them over 3 million each. The tender was just a way to make sure they keep him. Miller will be offered a long term contract. Even 3 million per year is good money for a TE and we know Al Davis values a good TE. It would take a completely ridiculous offer from another team IMO for him to go anywhere even if they drop the RFA rules.Bush is a bit different story. He initially was upset when the drafted McFadden but does like playing with the Raiders and has been content to play out his 4th round rookie contract. He's been underpaid so he deserves to be overpaid as an FA. Another team could offer him a starting job and/or more money. Oakland has a lot of money tied up in McFadden already and now they've got Jones who will be cheap. Although Jones is a completely different back who cant fill Bush's shoes by himself. Keep in mind Michael Bennett was also resigned and Reese should be high on the priority list (I consider him a more important signing). Its still a solid group without Bush, just dont want to see him go to a division opponent, especially if there is a short training camp.
 
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S Hiram Eugene Raiders 4

Signed a 4 year contract earlier this year. I like how the Raiders really worked hard to sign their guys to contracts before the lockout. Mario Henderson turned down a 1 year deal and of course Gallery turned down an offer as well. Miller, Bush, and Ricky Brown were given tenders which I imagine would become nulled if this happened but the effort was all there.

 
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