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Fair Trade Return for 1.01 in dynasty startup (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter houston
- Start date
this
and if I may, focus on building a dynasty, not a redraft. I'd only draft young rising players. I'd start with WRs and TEs under 25 years old, RBs under 23 yo, QB under 27 yo.
as crazy as it sounds, guys like Travis Kelce wouldn't even be on my draft board in a dynasty start up
and I'd go WR very heavy. WRs win multiple years in dynasty (and I have). RBs have the least value to me
Dez
Footballguy
This is a great question for @ghostguy123 since he has done a ton of startups already this year and has made many trade downs from a top 4 draft slot this year.
Dez
Footballguy
The under 23 year old RBs mean 22 and under you might not even field a team with that strategy.
So Breece Hall who is 23 is off your draft board ?
How many NFL RB's are actually 22 or younger right now ? Bijan, Gibbs and Achane are the only 3 I can even think of that are currently 22 yrs old and were anywhere in the top 30 RBs last year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I drew the 1.01 in my startup last year. 16 team SF IDP.
Couldn’t get an offer. Wanted to drop back 3-4 spots.
No takers.
Couldn’t get an offer. Wanted to drop back 3-4 spots.
No takers.
I believe the best way to build is a mix of youth and vets. Too many people try and go to heavy fire the future and end up being unable to compete for at least 3-4 years. By that time you are now chasing it and it's hard to recover.
As far as trading the 1.01 I would try and optimize early round start up picks. I would also not be afraid to use future picks to available high end talent that seems to fall to be good value as the draft is happening.
As far as trading the 1.01 I would try and optimize early round start up picks. I would also not be afraid to use future picks to available high end talent that seems to fall to be good value as the draft is happening.
Dez
Footballguy
Big difference from wanting to drop back 3-4 spots and trading your 1.01 to collect a bunch of picks
Example trading the 1.01 for the 2.10, 3.03 and a future 1st and future 2nd.
Some people will want to come up and deal for the 1.01 and have 2 top 5 picks. They don't always want to just move up 3 to 4 spots. They want both.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You do you, of course. But I completely disagree that going strictly youth will prohibit you from competing in year three... That's when you'd start to dominate for the next 3-4 years
I have seen start ups where owners weren't patient and wound up sucking after a year or two, never recover, and leave the league
Of course it can happen but it my experience it rarely does. In order for it to work you have to hit on 60-70% of those picks in a way that makes them all be top end performers in 3 years. If you don't then you are starting over again with no real assets.
It's harder to hit on 1st/2nd year guys that haven't shown much in the NFL. Plus too much changes in the NFL for anything over 2 yrs to really rely on anything.
In all my experiences the guys that play for the future always are playing for a future that never gets realized.
oh, is this your first dyansty? If so, may I give some advice
REALISTIC
never ever be mediocre cause that keeps you mediocre. If you can't be great, acknowledge it, sell off your non-young players and rebuild. Go all-in on the rebuild.
DRAFT
I'm not smart or I'd be a GM of an actual NFL team, so when I rebuild, I draft only WRs. One year, I had seven first round picks and went exclusively WR. Some didn't work out and I think it's silly to think that any of us know for sure who will succeed and who won't. Even actual NFL GMs get it wrong. So, focus on one position. If they all succeed, then trade for other positions.
I like to have a lot of rookie picks or none... some years I'll focus heavily on TEs (who get a 1.5ppr, WR/RB get 1.0)
TRADE
TRADE! TRADE! Even if you lose some deals, the experience will help you. Everyone in my leagues who does NOT trade are mediocre (see #1) (read: they suck). Also, intentionally give away value to owners who will reciprocate later on. It'll take a while to figure out who they are. This goodwill helps when you really need it. There's an owner who "gave" me Kelce for a 2nd round rookie pick because he's rebuilding (I'm going for a three-peat). We've gone back and forth over the years helping each other while the other rebuilds. There's been ZERO discussion (collusion), we just don't give each other a hard time on every trade. While I don't even bother sending offers to some owners anymore.
Don't trade your future first round pick until mid-season and only do so because it helps you go deep... NOT because it helps you make the playoffs. Never trade just to make the postseason
eighsse2
Footballguy
My game is youth. Veterans can be good for those bottom roster spots (bottom, when ranked by dynasty value). For example, I acquired Geno Smith a few weeks ago as a safety valve if Hurts is injured. Perfectly good way to fill a roster spot if a solid younger asset cannot be acquired to fill the spot. Other than that, I have Godwin, and the next oldest guy on my roster is AJ Brown, and I wouldn't have it any other way. I don't think I would ever be trading for a Tyreek Hill (Tyreek Hill today) type, at consensus value.
Edit: I should definitely add. This is the only league I've ever played in, and it is a 12-team league with 20-man rosters and we only start 6 offensive players total. That is very shallow lineups, and my theory may not work with deeper lineups. (And it may not work in our league either, jury still out.)
agreed. which is why i focus exclusively on one position, for me, that's WR. I've had six really good WRs on a rebuild once when I drafted all of them young. And then traded some away and am now trying for a three-peat from that team.
In OPs situation, instead of Lamb or Jefferson at 1.01 (whoever wants Christian McCaffrey really badly (dumb choice) at 1.01 would probably give it up, I'd rather have zero first round picks, trade 1.01 for three later picks and take three later WRs like Chris Olave (27*), Drake London (31*), Aiyuk (35*), Waddle (41*), Nico Collins (44*), Pittman (46*), Devonta Smith (50*)... and that wouldn't even include the picks you already had separately.
*according to MFL ADP
But I'm guessing you'd over-pay for a rental stud, like if the Tyreek Hill owner is heading to a rebuild, you're already mathematically in the playoffs at the trade deadline and you think Hill puts you over the top to win the league?
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
If you are dealing 1.01 - I don't think you can reasonably expect to receive a first in the same year + future picks.
The 1.01 in a dynasty startup isn't that critical to a successful draft. I think most players on this board would rather have 2 firsts in the startup and maybe fair value is a 2nd/3rd and future rookie first?
As for only taking players at a specific age... I disagree with this approach. I would probably grab as many top young receivers as I can but you'll end up settling for youth over talent in start-ups. The age can help with ranking within tiers but I don't think you place a "do not draft" tag on a guy outside of the preferred age because you'll get a lesser guy in a lower tier as a trade off and find yourself "over-drafting" youth.
We started a dynasty draft during CMC's rookie year. People were pretty low on CMC and I ended up getting him and paired him with some older backs. I looked forward to the next couple years and thought I'd have some receiving options, which didn't make it high importance to take a ton of young receivers immediately. Dynasty is a marathon and not a sprint. When modeling every rookie draft into tiers, I also look at devy rankings to understand what the pipeline looks like.
I've never wanted the #1 pick in any league format and it's especially useless in Dynasty. I would rather have more picks early.
The 1.01 in a dynasty startup isn't that critical to a successful draft. I think most players on this board would rather have 2 firsts in the startup and maybe fair value is a 2nd/3rd and future rookie first?
As for only taking players at a specific age... I disagree with this approach. I would probably grab as many top young receivers as I can but you'll end up settling for youth over talent in start-ups. The age can help with ranking within tiers but I don't think you place a "do not draft" tag on a guy outside of the preferred age because you'll get a lesser guy in a lower tier as a trade off and find yourself "over-drafting" youth.
We started a dynasty draft during CMC's rookie year. People were pretty low on CMC and I ended up getting him and paired him with some older backs. I looked forward to the next couple years and thought I'd have some receiving options, which didn't make it high importance to take a ton of young receivers immediately. Dynasty is a marathon and not a sprint. When modeling every rookie draft into tiers, I also look at devy rankings to understand what the pipeline looks like.
I've never wanted the #1 pick in any league format and it's especially useless in Dynasty. I would rather have more picks early.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I could not agree more. So many people in dynasties focus way too much on youth, as opposed to building a competitive roster for the present. You can get a lot of vets at great value that will help you a ton more for 2-3 years, compared to a rookie who might bust completely.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Possibly. There could be certain circumstances like that where I would do it. Though I would hope it wouldn't be an overpay when the other guy is rebuilding and scrapping Hill for parts ... (Then again the other guy knows I need Hill just as much as he doesn't need him.) But yeah, I could see that.
well, you might "over-pay" a rebuilding owner because other playoff bound owners might be in on it.
while I focus heavily on youth, the goal is to win, so at the trade deadline, my "rules" change
-OZ-
Footballguy
I’m struggling with this right now. Last year I was a bottom team. Between trades and my own picks I now have Bijan, MHJ, Garret Wilson and a few other good young players. But I’m really not likely to contend. I’m not trading these young guys but don’t feel right putting the top 1st and 2nd year players on the taxi squad although that would be the prudent move. So I’m probably going to be mid pack. Which kinda sucks. But at least there are no old players on the team.
that's funny, my experience has been the opposite. I have seen way too many owners focus on older, proven players and fail... that's how I started out in FF and when I was sure Donald Drive had one or two more good years left, then didn't, my approach changed.
why?
I stopped being morally/ethically restrained when the San Diego Chargers picked up a RB released by Tampa (i forget the details) just so my denver broncos couldn't get him the year they went through 7-8 RBs. Do any of y'all remember that year? Selvin Young, etc. Tatum Bell was selling cell phones in the mall near my house when he got a call to join the team because all the rest were on IR.
And the chargers never even played that RB they acquired... just to screw over the broncos.
so, in a rebuild, put all your young, best players on taxi UNTIL you're ready to dominate.
went down the rabbit hole, sorry for the tangent...
2008
that player was Michael Bennett... who had ZERO touches for SD. I'm not saying it was the only factor, but Denver was 8-5 at the time, wound up 8-8, got the great Mike Shannahan fired and SD got into the playoffs on a tie breaker over Denver.
I've done some startups where I've gone the other way with highly valuing RB's or TE's(TEP) and blowing off WR's and have had a lot of success. Just illustrates there are multiple strategies that can be successful. Boils down less about position and picking the right players IMO.
Also those teams have been successful for multiple years though I must say my track record for sustained success has been higher when I've gone TE heavy then RB heavy.
Key with RB's is get them young, get a few years out of them and then if you can move them and try to start the process over. If you look at it that way they offer more long term value then they are given credit.
One thing I'm very much in agreement with you is focusing on youth. Youth holds value, youth offers long term success and also believe you can go young and compete in year one, though for sure RB youth is not the same long term thing as WR youth, unless you can spin the RB's off after a few years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At that point you don’t want to contend.
Sell off the olds, keep the core, and draft baby, draft!
Embrace the suck. Enjoy that 1.01
Dez
Footballguy
Unless you play in the FFPC and you have to play for your draft pick which is way different than any other league. You can't full tank the FFPC unless you own a ton of other 1st round picks otherwise you are likely picking 1.04 or 1.03.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The best approach is a mix. Going too young and you could wait forever. Going too old and you fall out fast.
I don't prioritize age. I prioritize talent. Doesn't really matter how old the player is within reason. I just see too many owners overly prioritizing youth and then it leads to always playing for next year....which never comes. You need a balance and I never want to not be trying to go for it. The point is to win and you have a hard time doing that playing for "next year".
so you'd draft kelce?
eighsse2
Footballguy
Throwing this into the "youth vs veterans" conversation ... Number of teams who make the playoffs. A lot of leagues do something like 4/12 make it in. In ours, 7/12 make it. Now, in what direction and to what degree does that factor change things? I think more playoff teams moves the needle toward young guys. Because you never have to be great to win a title. You just have to be decent and then lucky in December. So, while you're trying to build up your team through youth, you may have a shot any of those years. Whereas, if only 4 teams make it in, you have to have a good team, or else a ton of luck, to have a chance.
Sure. Depending where he fell to
kutta
Footballguy
See - “within reason.”
But I’d draft Kelce if the price was right and I had another good young TE.
jabarony
Footballguy
I went youth heavy in a startup last year. Still took Mike Evans in the 9th even though he didn't quite fit to that approach. Ended up trading him mid-year for a future 1st. A good asset is a good asset, regardless of age limits.
That's disingenuous because he won't fall, not far enough.
Drafting to win now is a mistake in dynasty
It's not like veteran players on your fantasy team can mentor your youth
It goes to exactly what I have been saying I do. Draft a mix to ensure I am always competitive from the start. How is it disingenuous stating I would take a player if the value is right? It's how I draft every player.
kutta
Footballguy
I’m pretty sure everyone in this thread plays dynasty and we all have different strategies in one way or another. If everyone is grabbing youth, it means some older guys are going to fall and be good values. Why wouldn’t you grab a few of them if the price is right?
Because in years 3-7 of the dynasty, I'd consistently demonstrate success
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If a 1QB league, I'd look to deal pick #1 for a few different kinds of deals:
A pick in the 5-10 range plus a future 1st.
A pick in the mid 2nd, a mid 5th (maybe 4th), and a future 1st (then trade the mid 5th and get another future 1st plus a later pick like a 10th)
One deal I got which was even better was another teams mid 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. That one probably won't happen for you.
If you go into the startup with two 2nd rounders, all the rest of your startup picks, plus three future 1sts, you can give yourself a lot of options on how to go about your draft. You can still compete if you want, or you can go super young and try to build. Your own future 1st will be high and hope one of the other 1sts is also high.
If possible, make those trades with teams NOT in your division.
A pick in the 5-10 range plus a future 1st.
A pick in the mid 2nd, a mid 5th (maybe 4th), and a future 1st (then trade the mid 5th and get another future 1st plus a later pick like a 10th)
One deal I got which was even better was another teams mid 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. That one probably won't happen for you.
If you go into the startup with two 2nd rounders, all the rest of your startup picks, plus three future 1sts, you can give yourself a lot of options on how to go about your draft. You can still compete if you want, or you can go super young and try to build. Your own future 1st will be high and hope one of the other 1sts is also high.
If possible, make those trades with teams NOT in your division.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dude in my 16 teamer drafted an old team. Almost all olds. While everyone was youth chasing, he scooped up the McLaurin, Kupp, Cooper, Conner, etc types.
He won the ship 1st year out the gate.
Something to be said for drafting old.
That said, his team is hurting a bit now.
kutta
Footballguy
And if you sprinkled a few stud vets in there maybe you’d consistently demonstrate success in years 1-7.
in all sincerity... who?
would you draft Davante Adams in a redraft? Of course, yeah? I think we all agree he's a stud. MFL has him at ADP 66 and he's "projected" to get 290 points (i think way too high, but let's use "unbiased" numbers). Metcalf has an ADP of 81 with a projection of 250 points, a full round later
Would you really take:
- Adams (66) over Metcalf (81)?
- Christian McCaffrey (ADP 5) over Breece Hall (17) or Bijan (10)?
- Tyreek (18) over Waddle (60) or Nico (67)
EDIT: let's go extra controversial...
Kelce (54) vs Dalton Kincaid (72)?
Dez
Footballguy
In this FFCP 1 QB startups right now Kincaid is ADP 18 and Kelce is ADP 42. (TE Premium for those who don't know for FFPC)
FFPC players have always been more aggressive with the bigger money on the line on avg compared to say a home league on avg which is why Kelce is going o high despite turning 35 during the season.
FFPC players have always been more aggressive with the bigger money on the line on avg compared to say a home league on avg which is why Kelce is going o high despite turning 35 during the season.
kutta
Footballguy
You’re missing the point.
Sure, going strictly by ADP, I’d take the younger guys. But if there’s a bunch of “you” in the draft and Breece and Bijan go, and some other young guys, and I’m sitting at the end of the first and CMC is there, you can bet I’m going to take him.
joey
Footballguy
Exactly what I was faced with in the FFPC SharkPool dynasty start up 4 years ago. Sitting near end of the 1st, I was staring at a bunch of guys I thought were a tier below what I wanted, and there was sitting Henry. So I made the call to go Win Now, grabbed Henry, and then grabbed Adams, AJones, Evans, Najee, Connor…and when things were going well, traded TLaw and my 1st for Josh Allen to put me over the top.
I won back to back Chips the first 2 years (sure some luck and good fortune helped, as always) and I was in the mix last year but just missed the playoffs, so I will be testing my competitive rebuild skills this year for sure. If I start off hot, I keep my oldies. If things go into the tank early, I likely start selling off Win Now assets for picks.
Personally, I love playing with house money for the next 8 years and I’ll keep drafting BPA and building a younger core as I go.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Trading During A Startup Draft: The Historical Value Approach - Dynasty League Football
We give you tools to make informed decisions about trading in a startup draft.
dynastyleaguefootball.com
Everyone uses a different trade value chart but something like this can give you an idea of what picks are worth relative to each other.
I would just put the pick on the block and take the best offer presented to me.
According to this the 1st overall pick is still worth a lot. You could get pick 1.05 and a 5th round pick for it. If you have a trade partner.
This is what I like doing. Moving down for extra picks. I also like trading for future 1st and 2nd round rookie picks in addition to this.
My goal is to trade down multiple times, gaining aditional picks each time.
If one can make 3 or 4 trades like this then the roster will be made up of players in picks 25-100. No super star players but many quality players and more of them than a typical team would have.
The key to this is having solid tiers to know when to trade up and how far one can trade down.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As far as the discussion about who to target I use a 3 year window for that and players who are old like Kelce still very valuable to me as I think he is still a top player for the next 2 seasons and he isnt really replaceable.
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