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Fanduel/Draftkings Week 12 (1 Viewer)

Chad Parsons said:
Appreciate the feedback. The shift in ownership availability on FanDuel required a shift midseason is one change a few weeks ago. One option is certainly to submit some low-cost variations of key players for Thursday locks, then post the article on Friday/Saturday. When FD changed the ownership setup, I decided to shift the focus to share my prep process leading up to TNF locks instead. If most are not putting in their lineup until Friday-Saturday-Sunday, then waiting on the ownership data would be worthwhile. The method to my madness in the bulging excel document each week could definitely be shared more in the opening as I streamlined the recommendations and explanations to summarize all the data that goes into it. The track record of the recommended lineup has been tremendous thus far in the low-to-mid cost buy-in cash games I typically frequent. Thanks again for weighing in
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Cool, thanks for responding! I for one would love to see some data on actual ownership percentages, but I can certainly appreciate the effort involved to get the article out early.

 
To anyone considering starting TRich this weekend: I appreciate your contributions to the prize pools. Thank you.

 
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I wonder what will happen to games this weekend if the Bills/Jets games is postponed. Looking more and more like it will be, even if they could plow and dig out, they don't have the resources to have law enforcement/EMTs at the game on Sunday when they should be out helping people. Somewhat similar to the NYC marathon after Sandy - they could technically do it, but its not appropriate to use resources when they are needed else where.

Say the game happens Tuesday night, all entries extend until Tuesday?

 
karmarooster said:
Say the game happens Tuesday night, all entries extend until Tuesday?
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I think the policy at FanDuel is to extend the contests to as late as Wednesday night to accommodate delayed games, while the policy at DraftKings is to keep the original end-times for the contests, and to give zero points for any players who haven't played by Monday night.

 
karmarooster said:
Joe T said:
I took a look at the week 11 Running Back results based on performance above or below projection. Then I looked at the correlation between performance and two things: prior 4 week fantasy point avg and opponent strength of defense.

The goal was to see if one was a better indicator of performance above or below projection than the other.

Here are the results.
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So, basically targeting RBs against weak defenses is sorta good, but targeting hot RBs is better, and has more significance than playing matchups. Would you agree with that conclusion?
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Yes, but it's only one week of data. I'll look again next week to see if it continues.

I think the thing that was most surprising was how close some RBs were to their 4 week avg.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
karmarooster said:
Say the game happens Tuesday night, all entries extend until Tuesday?
Click to expand...
I think the policy at FanDuel is to extend the contests to as late as Wednesday night to accommodate delayed games, while the policy at DraftKings is to keep the original end-times for the contests, and to give zero points for any players who haven't played by Monday night.
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Ouch! Luckily there aren't a lot of points to be had in that game...

 
Keerock said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
karmarooster said:
Say the game happens Tuesday night, all entries extend until Tuesday?
Click to expand...
I think the policy at FanDuel is to extend the contests to as late as Wednesday night to accommodate delayed games, while the policy at DraftKings is to keep the original end-times for the contests, and to give zero points for any players who haven't played by Monday night.
Click to expand...
Ouch! Luckily there aren't a lot of points to be had in that game...
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Looks like it's going to be played Monday, somewhere other than Buffalo.

 
Ya that game isn't happening in Buffalo. Schefter just tweeted they'll be lucky to be ready by the Browns/Bills game on the 30th.

Would be nice if the sites put a proactive message on their screen of the policy. They have time to get out in front of this.

 
Keerock said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
karmarooster said:
Say the game happens Tuesday night, all entries extend until Tuesday?
Click to expand...
I think the policy at FanDuel is to extend the contests to as late as Wednesday night to accommodate delayed games, while the policy at DraftKings is to keep the original end-times for the contests, and to give zero points for any players who haven't played by Monday night.
Click to expand...
Ouch! Luckily there aren't a lot of points to be had in that game...
Click to expand...
I was pretty heavy on the Buffalo defense, but I have switched them out for Philly on my Thurs contests

 
GreenNGold said:
To anyone considering starting TRich this weekend: I appreciate your contributions to the prize pools. Thank you.
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Not real high on him, but to get X3 his value you only need 90 total yds and a touchdown (not even factoring in receptions). I think he is probably the safest of the cheap RBs this week if you decide to go that route.

 
Agree on that, Snogger. Will be adding some data on Fri-Sat this week and going forward with the data I find in some big cash games. A few 'non-optimized' lineups can get much of the data for relatively low cost. The highest owned players in recent weeks have largely been from the players listed in the article if I recall correctly.

 
I normally spend the week jotting down notes of players that may fall below my radar when it comes to entering my rosters..

here are my notes so far:

QB's..
McCown.. back "home" vs. a weak Bears Pass D..
Kaepernick - uggg.. Burned many times.. but home vs. Redskins..
Sanchez, Hoyer, Matt Ryan.. Favorable match ups..

RB's..
McCoy vs. Titans (31st ranked rushing Defense)
CJ Anderson RB Denver - Who else will run?
Denard Robinson RB Jags - Nice numbers before his bye
Steven Jackson RB ATL - Vs. Browns @ home..
Trent Richardson RB Colts - again, who else will run?

Wr's:
Kenny Stills NO WR - Injury's to other WR's seems to make him a good play at home
Cecil Shorts or Allen Hurns WR Jags

Andrew Hawkins ( Josh will get all the attention, may open it up for Hawkins...)

TE's:
Charles Clay TE Dolphins - Denver D not great vs. TE's
Coby Fleener TE Colts if Dewayne Allen is out..

D's: Seahawks, 49er's, Bills, Denver..
K's: Brandon McManus or Shayne Graham

GPP -

McCown + Evans.. Weather??
Mettenberger + Justin Hunter or Kendall Wright
Hoyer - Gordon ( Guessing percentage for this one too high for GPPS)
Real crap shoot - Bortles + Shorts or Hurns??

:popcorn:

 
John Lee said:
Bobcat10 said:
"Some new article title focusing on Thurs plays" - posted pre-TNF

"Playing the Percentages" - posted post-TNF
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If you didn't already know, I post a weekly gamescript summary of the Thursday night game, with DFS selections, here: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14johnlee_TnP_week12_Thurs
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Definitely like that article and all the Tips and Picks!

I guess I'm just agreeing with some of the posts here.....for the percentages article, I'd love to see actual percentages. I see some in my own Thursday plays, but I've turned into a VERY light Thurs player this year because my own research has mostly taken place Fri/Sat nights and tweak Sun morning.

 
Riding this TH lineup in a few head-to-heads:

QB Jay Cutler CHI v TB

RB Darren Sproles PHI v TEN

RB Isaiah Crowell CLE @ ATL

WR Dez Bryant DAL @ NYG

WR Demaryius Thomas DEN v MIA

WR Kenny Stills NO v BAL

TE Jason Witten DAL @ NYG

K Shayne Graham NO v BAL

D Kansas City Chiefs KC @ OAK

 
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snellman said:
GreenNGold said:
To anyone considering starting TRich this weekend: I appreciate your contributions to the prize pools. Thank you.
Click to expand...
Not real high on him, but to get X3 his value you only need 90 total yds and a touchdown (not even factoring in receptions). I think he is probably the safest of the cheap RBs this week if you decide to go that route.
Click to expand...
Not sure how you are defining "cheap" but I like both Sproles (against a brutal TEN rush defense) and Crowell (60+% of the work) over Richardson.

 
Submitted the 7-8 rosters to cover most of the players that project as potential value plays this week into 50/50 and Double-Ups on FanDuel. For this week, the 'Playing the Percentages' article will be updated with ownership rates on Friday. Next week, the article will be out on Friday taking into account the ownership rates. Check back tomorrow for the updated post for this week.

 
Chad Parsons said:
Submitted the 7-8 rosters to cover most of the players that project as potential value plays this week into 50/50 and Double-Ups on FanDuel. For this week, the 'Playing the Percentages' article will be updated with ownership rates on Friday. Next week, the article will be out on Friday taking into account the ownership rates. Check back tomorrow for the updated post for this week.
Click to expand...
Thanks Chad!

 
Chad Parsons said:
Submitted the 7-8 rosters to cover most of the players that project as potential value plays this week into 50/50 and Double-Ups on FanDuel. For this week, the 'Playing the Percentages' article will be updated with ownership rates on Friday. Next week, the article will be out on Friday taking into account the ownership rates. Check back tomorrow for the updated post for this week.
Click to expand...
:thumbup:

 
Chad Parsons said:
Submitted the 7-8 rosters to cover most of the players that project as potential value plays this week into 50/50 and Double-Ups on FanDuel. For this week, the 'Playing the Percentages' article will be updated with ownership rates on Friday. Next week, the article will be out on Friday taking into account the ownership rates. Check back tomorrow for the updated post for this week.
Click to expand...
Excellent.

 
The 'Playing the Percentages' article is updated with TNF ownership rates for the highest value plays at each position now. Thanks for the suggestions

 
Chad Parsons said:
The 'Playing the Percentages' article is updated with TNF ownership rates for the highest value plays at each position now. Thanks for the suggestions
Click to expand...
:thumbup:

I had a few TNF lineups, half with Charles and half complete fades. Looks like ASmith, LMurray and JJones were also solid plays, but I'm sure they were very small percentages.

Had one entry with Fleener at TE... in the multi-entry $2 double up, his ownership is an even 50 PERCENT. Sheesh, that's the highest I've ever seen for a TE. Given the number of TE vs. RB starters, its comparatively higher than Jeremy Hill's 70% ownership a few weeks bad (ended up as a dud but didn't really hurt).

 
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karmarooster said:
Chad Parsons said:
The 'Playing the Percentages' article is updated with TNF ownership rates for the highest value plays at each position now. Thanks for the suggestions
Click to expand...
:thumbup: I had a few TNF lineups, half with Charles and half complete fades. Looks like ASmith, LMurray and JJones were also solid plays, but I'm sure they were very small percentages.

Had one entry with Fleener at TE... in the multi-entry $2 double up, his ownership is an even 50 PERCENT. Sheesh, that's the highest I've ever seen for a TE. Given the number of TE vs. RB starters, its comparatively higher than Jeremy Hill's 70% ownership a few weeks bad (ended up as a dud but didn't really hurt).
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Charles hit his ~2x number tonight, saw Latavius' ownership at 0.9% in one large field cash game.

 
Great stuff GBCP! Anyone have any % numbers on Sims and/or McCown?

 
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If it helps, the following was fairly representative of my contests entered:

QB
Mark Sanchez
TEN @ PHI 1:00pm
$7500SALARY
11.6%OWNED


RB
Isaiah Crowell
CLE @ ATL 1:00pm
$5500SALARY
18.8%OWNED


RB
Tre Mason
STL @ SD 4:05pm
$5600SALARY
6.2%OWNED


WR
Mike Evans
TB @ CHI 1:00pm
$8400SALARY
9.8%OWNED


WR
Josh Gordon
CLE @ ATL 1:00pm
$7800SALARY
21.4%OWNED


WR
Jordy Nelson
GB @ MIN 1:00pm
$9000SALARY
13.4%OWNED


TE
Coby Fleener
JAC @ IND 1:00pm
$5400SALARY
34.8%OWNED


K
Adam Vinatieri
JAC @ IND 1:00pm
$5400SALARY
5.4%OWNED


D
Philadelphia Eagles
TEN @ PHI 1:00pm
$5100SALARY
10.7%OWNED


 
Does anyone have any ideas for other useful bookmarklets?

The User screen shot is really great. However, I was trying to think of some other useful ideas. One would be a similar feature that instead shows the average # of NFL wins if you hover over a certain game - e.g. compare this 20 player 50/50 to that 20 player 50/50. The other idea would be some kind of filter, not sure how that would work on java - maybe a 'highlight' is a better term to use - that would show only the H2H games available against players below x win percentage, without having to hover over each use name to see how many wins they have.

 
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Chad Parsons said:
The 'Playing the Percentages' article is updated with TNF ownership rates for the highest value plays at each position now. Thanks for the suggestions
Click to expand...
This maybe be a 'sideways' suggestion for examining useful percentages, but I would love to see a comparison of player's salaries as a percentage (tag line) of total cap among the top X number of sites.My reasoning is that this could expose an under or over priced player that one would be otherwise unaware of, so that one could seek/avoid X player accordingly.

An analogy would be comparing the over/under among several casinos. If as an example 4 had an o/u of 42 and another had an o/u of 52, there may be an opportunity to play the under at the outlier casino.

I was inspired by the drastically different prices for Gordon this week among the different sites and wondered if that could provide meaningful information.

 
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andrewd173 said:
This maybe be a 'sideways' suggestion for examining useful percentages, but I would love to see a comparison of player's salaries as a percentage (tag line) of total cap among the top X number of sites.

My reasoning is that this could expose an under or over priced player that one would be otherwise unaware of, so that one could seek/avoid X player accordingly.

An analogy would be comparing the over/under among several casinos. If as an example 4 had an o/u of 42 and another had an o/u of 52, there may be an opportunity to play the under at the outlier casino.

I was inspired by the drastically different prices for Gordon this week among the different sites and wondered if that could provide meaningful information.
Click to expand...
I like this idea for purposes of knowing where to load up on a player and where to diversify away from him.

Sometimes a player is a great deal at every site, like Jeremy Hill was a few weeks ago. But if I don't want Jeremy Hill to be in 100% of my lineups, where should I diversify away from him? Obviously, at the sites where he's less of a bargain (even if he's still a bargain).

If I want Hill in only 80% of my lineups, for example, one strategy would be to put him in four out of five lineups at each site. But perhaps a better strategy would be to put him in 100% of my lineups at the sites where he's relatively cheapest, and only 40% or 60% of my lineups where he's relatively more expensive.

A little chart showing where he's most and least expensive might be helpful. (It's tricky to make it apples-to-apples because different sites not only have different salary caps and positional requirements, but they also have different bottom-level salaries at each position. But there's probably a decent way to do it.)

 
Jonas Grey overslept. Bump Vereen. Blount can't run on Donkey-Kong, and the game script already potentially favored Vereen as a pass catching RB rather than the power run against the Lions D. This just makes it more likely.

 
snogger said:
I normally spend the week jotting down notes of players that may fall below my radar when it comes to entering my rosters..

here are my notes so far:

QB's..

McCown.. back "home" vs. a weak Bears Pass D..

Kaepernick - uggg.. Burned many times.. but home vs. Redskins..

Sanchez, Hoyer, Matt Ryan.. Favorable match ups..

RB's..

McCoy vs. Titans (31st ranked rushing Defense)

CJ Anderson RB Denver - Who else will run?

Denard Robinson RB Jags - Nice numbers before his bye

Steven Jackson RB ATL - Vs. Browns @ home..

Trent Richardson RB Colts - again, who else will run?

Wr's:

Kenny Stills NO WR - Injury's to other WR's seems to make him a good play at home

Cecil Shorts or Allen Hurns WR Jags

Andrew Hawkins ( Josh will get all the attention, may open it up for Hawkins...)

TE's:

Charles Clay TE Dolphins - Denver D not great vs. TE's

Coby Fleener TE Colts if Dewayne Allen is out..

D's: Seahawks, 49er's, Bills, Denver..

K's: Brandon McManus or Shayne Graham

GPP -

McCown + Evans.. Weather??

Mettenberger + Justin Hunter or Kendall Wright

Hoyer - Gordon ( Guessing percentage for this one too high for GPPS)

Real crap shoot - Bortles + Shorts or Hurns??

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
So much for Clay.. listed as Doubtful so :bye:

 
McCown looks intriguing this week. Relatively cheap, very good matchup, good game script, and he's been on the upswing in his last four (heretofore referred to as the joet number). Then you add in the narrative of him facing his old team.

 
What are the thoughts on an Orton Watkins stack for a GPP? Granted, they have missed practice and have to travel for a home game on Mon night. However, probably won't be highly owned, Fast turf in Detroit, and the Jets D.

 
I'm gonna pass on Trent Richardson this week. The opportunity should be there, but he never seems to seize it. Not sure if lack of talent, heart, or both...but I can't go with him. I could easily see 20 carries for 50 yards, maybe a TD...not worth it.

I'm passing on Josh Gordon on FanDuel, too pricy for me for the risk. Maybe I'll roll with him at Draftkings, but O Beckham is similarly priced and should could be playing from behind and will also not be on a snap count.

 
I've had a monster season over at Fanduel this year. Haven't been in one of these threads in a while.

Few guys I LOVE this week, a few im staying away from, and one pick I think will be the steal of the week at his position.

1. Marshawn Lynch. Pay top dollar for him this week. He will be worth every penny. As close to a must start as there is IMO. Pete Carol has always been and always will be a players coach. With all the drama surrounding BEASTMODE this week, expect him to feed him all afternoon. An angry Lynch, is a fantasy god on fire.

2. Leave Fleener alone. This is shaping up to be one of the bigger one week league traps of the season.

3. Instead, go cheaper on my positional top value of the week at TE... VERNON DAVIS. That's right. I said it. The last couple of weeks they've tried to get him going on the road without any luck. This week, at home, he finally gets it going. SF is a better team when Davis is playing well. They'll need him if they want to give themselves their best chance to go anywhere. Right now is the perfect time to try and get him hot for the stretch run.

Some other guys I really like this week.

Shane Vareen.

Jonas Gray missed practice on Friday, and typically a missed Friday practice means that you will not be a major part of the game plan. The Pats will likely deploy Vareen much in the same way as they did against the Jets. Look for him to get a ton of run today.

Marques Colston

He can be had on the cheap and is a good bet to see some more targets with Cooks done for the season. I think he finds the EZ this week.

Eli Manning

Yes I said it. The stench of last week is still lingering, I get it. But the Giants and Cowboys typically play good high scoring games. I can easily see "little bro" having a 3 TD bounce back against the BOYS. If you're going cheap on QB, look there.

Alright boys. That's all I got for this week. See you all later for my glow or crow.

 
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I'm going to buy out of Gordon after the 20-30 snap news (edit...well not totally). I think TRich is gonna blow up in my face too...and now Shefter says watch out for BOOM. With Crowell, mackinnon and Herron in that range, it's time to spread it out.

 
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