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FanDuel/Draftkings Week 5 (1 Viewer)

Zyphros said:
Rough lineup that I've come up with for GPP's this week on Fanduel

Cam

Le'Veon, Marshawn

Benjamin, Michael Floyd, Quick

Kelce

New Orleans K and Def

Really like the Cam/Benjamin stack this week, which saved some money for more RB studs. Floyd off a bye seems like a no brainer at his price (6400) and Quick's floor seems to be ~10 points (60+ yds and a TD) and could easily keep blowing up. Not fond of the Kelce pick here b/c of the really tough match-up, just haven't found another TE yet I'm more willing to go with.
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I think I'm currently rolling with:Bortles

Rashad Jennings

Reggie Bush

Antonio Brown

Emmanuel Sanders

Kelvin Benjamin

Kelce

Gould

Cin

Edit: I heard Joique is out, so rolling with Reggie.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]The main difference between cash-game lineups and GPP lineups, IMO, has to do with variance, not with uniqueness. In GPPs, you want to pair QBs with WRs or TEs, and you want to avoid pairing QBs or RBs with their opposing defenses. You can also be a bit less adverse to starting guys in unclear situations (like Jamaal Charles last week). In cash games, by contrast, you should be less likely to pair QBs with WRs, and you want to stick to guys whose situations/roles/heath are more dependable.[/SIZE]
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Any thoughts on how big of a stack is too much for a GPP? The last couple of weeks I've seen GPP tourneys dominated by multiple player stacks who went all-in on an offense and got lucky such as the Redskins in Week 3 and the Packers in Week 4.

As it pertains to Week 5, let me throw out a handful of different stacking scenarios from tasty matchups so I can get a sense of whether one situation qualifies as overkill or not.

Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown make sense as an obvious stack for Week 5 against a Jags defense that has given up 11 passing TDs and 340+ passing yards per game. Is it overkill to consider additional stacking options like Heath Miller, Markus Wheaton and/or Le'Veon Bell (DraftKings-relevant only due to full PPR) into this lineup as well when Brown is Big Ben's unquestioned favorite target? Is it still beneficial to consider these secondary targets in addition to Brown to increase variance even at the expense of #1 targets on other teams with tasty matchups?

Here's another stacking scenario to throw out there. Philip Rivers should be passing all day against the Jets but which receiver(s) do you stack him with and is there such a thing as too many when it comes to covering bases? Allen had a career day last week. Royal has been targeted more consistently than any other Chargers receiver and represents the best value. Gates has had a bad couple of weeks but that trend is likely to end on Sunday given the depleted Jets secondary. I'd say Floyd is too much of a risk given his 15 total targets but any of the other 3 or ALL of the other 3 could have big days. Would it be overkill to stack more than one of Allen, Royal and Gates with Rivers to increase variance? He can only complete passes to one of them at any given time after all.

One last stacking scenario question. Kelvin Benjamin represents an absurd value on DraftKings at $4,800 this week against a Bears secondary that has already surrendered huge days to Crabtree (21.2 points in Week 2), Kerley (21.1 points in Week 3), Nelson (35.8 points in Week 4) and Cobb (33.3 points in Week 4). While Benjamin has put up consistently strong receiving totals in Weeks 1, 3 and 4, it hasn't been to the benefit of disappointing Cam Newton (whose best week was in Week 2). Because Benjamin isn't helping Newton put up great numbers (largely due to how anemic the rest of his weapons aside from Olsen are), does a Benjamin-Newton stack make absolutely zero sense in a GPP unless one thinks Cam will finally turn things around?

 
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FlipsideRM said:
Anyone see any decent tight end options on draft kings below 5k? I don't feel comfortable with Kelcee or Gates this week..
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I'm starting to think Kelce at $3,000 is going to be a trap chasing points vs SF

In DK cash games I'm down to 2 options with 2 spots to fill:

Graham & Allen Robinson

or

Dez & 1 of Kelce/Harbor/ASJ

I'm thinking Jax at home ends up putting up points trying to keep up with Pitt and Robinson and or Harbor are the ones who benefit

 
dmac37 said:
FlipsideRM said:
Anyone see any decent tight end options on draft kings below 5k? I don't feel comfortable with Kelcee or Gates this week..
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I'm starting to think Kelce at $3,000 is going to be a trap chasing points vs SF

In DK cash games I'm down to 2 options with 2 spots to fill:

Graham & Allen Robinson

or

Dez & 1 of Kelce/Harbor/ASJ

I'm thinking Jax at home ends up putting up points trying to keep up with Pitt and Robinson and or Harbor are the ones who benefit
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I like Graham more than Dez this week and Robinson I think has a good chance to at least equal what those other TEs do. So I would go Graham/Robinson. I may go with Kelce/Graham in some lineups.

 
mrip541 said:
Anyone have a minimum salary wr pick for fd this week? Wright, Lafell?
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I am not a Torrey Smith fan, but for $5300 on Fan Duel I am against the Colts. I think it represents fantastic value, and the ravens will have to score TDs to keep up with Luck.

 
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Playing only tournaments and 100+ player leagues this week.

Bush and Jennings look like decent RB values.

I like A. Smith/Kelce, and E. Manning/Donnell stacks

I also think this is the week to take a shot with the expensive Seattle D. I know everybody will be on them, but Cousins IN Seattle should be ugly as hell.

Bush and Jennings look like decent RB values this week and I like D. Thomas and Royal at WR.

 
Gottabesweet said:
New at this and ran into Condia in a ten team winner take all and a small 50-50
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If I'm looking to get in a ten team winner take all I won't get in unless I check the other opponents. Find one with nine entries and check their wins. The easiest way is using the bookmarklets Steelers posted earlier. Wait until there are nine entries out of ten, then check for opponents win history and try to avoid the games with extremely experienced players. You still may run into teams that look like they came right off of FBGs rankings, but over time I like my odds better with matchups against inexperienced players. I do the same in 3 player, 5, player, and 20 player games.

With H2Hs I usually do the opposite and create a few games at a time. The opponents who join are usually less experienced than any of the H2H opponents in the lobby. I never put too many out at once because you run the risk of an experienced player taking every game you have listed. I want to vary my opponents instead of having a larger chunk going against one opponent's lineup.

50/50s and Double ups, Triple ups, etc. have too many players for me to worry about checking.

 
RexG said:
Playing only tournaments and 100+ player leagues this week.

Bush and Jennings look like decent RB values.

I like A. Smith/Kelce, and E. Manning/Donnell stacks

I also think this is the week to take a shot with the expensive Seattle D. I know everybody will be on them, but Cousins IN Seattle should be ugly as hell.

Bush and Jennings look like decent RB values this week and I like D. Thomas and Royal at WR.
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Cousins isn't in Seattle. Could be ugly regardless.

 
nastynate said:
dschuler said:
mrip541 said:
Anyone have a minimum salary wr pick for fd this week? Wright, Lafell?
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I am not a Torrey Smith fan, but for $5300 on Fan Duel I am against the Colts. I think it represents fantastic value, and the ravens will have to score TDs to keep up with Luck.
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In cash games Id rather go Hawkins. Much more consistent, although not the upside.
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Yeah, I am running Hawkins this week as well. He is Hoyer's guy right now with 33 targets(21 catches) after three games. I don't trust Torrey at all.

 
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I can start Reggie Bush or Marshawn in my flex, this is tough PPR. I know what Im gonna get from Marshawn, a decent to great game vs the Skins but Reggie Bush could explode tomorrow.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
This is a pretty interesting topic, by the way.

Cash games are most profitable for good players when the spread among teams' expected points is greatest. If everyone is expected to score around the same number of points, we're all losing money on average by paying the vigorish. But if my team is expected to score five points more than the median team and ten points more than the worst team, that's probably enough to give me a positive expectation even after accounting for the vigorish. So we need the teams' expectations to be spread out a bit.

The question is: what kind of pricing is likely to result in the first situation (where everyone is expected to score about the same amount), and what kind of pricing is likely to result in the second situation?

At one extreme, if all players are priced proportionally to their expected points (according to the best projections available), there will be no spread among teams.

At the other extreme, it is possible to come up with pricing that makes the best starting lineup so obvious that nearly everyone will choose it. With no vigorish, this becomes a profitable game if even one owner fails to submit the optimal lineup: the rest of the teams will split that owner's entry fee most of the time. But with the standard DraftKings vigorish, to expect a profit, you need at least 5.6% of the owners to fail to submit the optimal lineup.

In between those extremes, we have ordinary reality. Players will never be exactly priced in proportion to their expected points, and neither will there be only two sorts of lineups -- obviously awesome ones and obviously stupid ones -- for people to choose from. There will always be some spread, and there will always be people who make mistakes. It's possible that people will make fewer mistakes with "loose" pricing, but that each mistake will be more costly. How those factors balance out in the real world is an empirical question. This seems as good a week as any to start trying to collect some data on it.
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I think a discussion on projections in this context is important. I think it is also important to define what an "accurate" projection is and, perhaps more importantly, what we mean when we project, for example, Antonio Bryant to score 16.7 points in FD this week. If Bryant scores 16.8, we would call that 16.7 "accurate" obviously. How about 17.7 or 15.7? Of course. 20.7 or 10.7? Probably not.

I think there's a tendency for people to think about projections in daily games as fixed numbers. They aren't. I would prefer to see someone on FBG run weekly projections as ranges that capture 1 standard deviation from the mean as opposed to the mean. That would enable a visualization of variance, which is a critical piece of analysis in both cash games and GPP.

I think that dovetails into the concerns some have about the cheap salaries. Certain players have higher probabilities of that "monster" game. Could LaFell go off for 10-190-2? Sure, it's possible, but it's far more likely Bryant does that. If the price point between the 2 is sufficiently close, however, the value of accurately predicting that outcome from LaFell is minimized. In other words, if I can field a team of "studs" (commonly viewed players with a high probability of that "monster" game) then my opponent's ability to correctly identify those players who have a higher probability for that monster game than pricing and public perception capture is minimized.

 
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I am a Colts fan and watch every play of every game. Their corners are actually pretty solid against the deep ball. I think Steve Smith is going to give them a lot of trouble, especially with Landry out. And the Colts linebackers have been poor at times covering the RBs against the pass. I expect Forsett, Daniels, and Steve Smith to be the producers against the Colts. Torrey could always catch a deep ball or two in any game, but I still don't see it being likely this week.

dschuler said:
mrip541 said:
Anyone have a minimum salary wr pick for fd this week? Wright, Lafell?
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I am not a Torrey Smith fan, but for $5300 on Fan Duel I am against the Colts. I think it represents fantastic value, and the ravens will have to score TDs to keep up with Luck.
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My highly invested players.

Eli :mellow:

Bush, Jennings

SSmith, ABrown, Benjamin

Graham, Harbor

Parkey, Graham

Sea, Det

I have Wilson in at QB in a few and Ben in one, I like that 8300 price point for them but it does call for other strange lineup changes. Eli has historically killed me in daily fantasy. Worried about dropping to Stanton/Bortles, but I probably shouldn't be. Weird week imo.

 
I'm big on Allen and Rivers in various permutations this week. The Jets can stonewall the run but are generally helpless in the secondary. Plus it's at home.

 
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GPP all in on Orton and Watkins stack. Expect low ownership given all the factors (road, #1 D, first start in years, lack of weapons). Will either be genius or absolute cluster$&?#

 
Mike Glennon

Matt Forte

DeMarco Murray

Antonio Brown

Victor Cruz

Jeremy Maclin

Delanie Walker

Chris Ivory

Rams D

 
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Eli Manning was a already a solid play this week, but with O. Beckham finally showing up he got a little stronger.

 
Wadsworth said:
Eli Manning was a already a solid play this week, but with O. Beckham finally showing up he got a little stronger.
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Well I hope I am right, just went very heavy on Eli this week. The numbers make it look like a good call, but heavy on Eli feels wrong.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Wadsworth said:
Wadsworth said:
Eli Manning was a already a solid play this week, but with O. Beckham finally showing up he got a little stronger.
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Well I hope I am right, just went very heavy on Eli this week. The numbers make it look like a good call, but heavy on Eli feels wrong.
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I've sworn him off before. If he does it again to me this week, never again lol
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I have Eli in about 20% of lineups... just cannot bring myself to fully embrace Eli. He has a knack for bombing.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Wadsworth said:
Wadsworth said:
Eli Manning was a already a solid play this week, but with O. Beckham finally showing up he got a little stronger.
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Well I hope I am right, just went very heavy on Eli this week. The numbers make it look like a good call, but heavy on Eli feels wrong.
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I've sworn him off before. If he does it again to me this week, never again lol
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Exactly. If he does it to me again, this time I REALLY mean it when I say Never Again.

 
my team today

D. Brees

L. Bell, B. Sankey

D. Bryant, D. Thomas, D. Baldwin

A. Seferian-Jenkins

R. Succop

Texans D

 
My lineups all split between

Eli, Stanton

Robinson, Bush, Murray, Bell

Brown, Julio, Smith, Hawkins, Randle, Nelson (thurs), Baldwin

All in on

Graham

Graham

Lions

Hope the back end of the lineup doesn't torpedo me this week, but actually puts me on top!

:alleggsinonebasket:

 
Playing 3 games this week at FanDuel.. small changes.. Really hoping Giants and Pittsburgh score big today :popcorn:

Ben Roethlisberger
Rashad Jennings
Jamaal Charles
Antonio Brown
Steve Smith
Andrew Hawkins
Travis Kelce
Shayne Graham
Detroit Lions

Eli Manning
Reggie Bush
Le'Veon Bell
Antonio Brown
Steve Smith
Brian Quick
Travis Kelce
Shaun Suisham
Detroit Lions

Nick Foles
Rashad Jennings
Le'Veon Bell
Antonio Brown
Steve Smith
Andrew Hawkins
Travis Kelce
Shayne Graham
Detroit Lions

 
Unreal first week I've heavily invested in Graham and invested big piece of my bankroll. This will not turn out well...

 
about done with Fanduel, lol. I look at content from both 4for4 and FBG and I'm just losing money every week :(

 
R. Jennings and J. Graham in my main regular league. Also R. Jennings in 90% and Graham in around 50% of my daily lineups this week. Great fantasy weekend for me :rolleyes:

 
It's going to be a rough week for anyone who put time, effort and research in and a great week for folks who have a favorite team that just happens to go off with all of their favorite players (and no injuries). How is this not considered gambling again?

 
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Well this week is going to be terrible.

Jennings injury, Donnell laying a goose egg, Brown, Smith and Hawkins all not doing well at all. Losing money this week for sure.

 
Lots of poor performances by popular picks Bortles, Jennings, Bush, Benjamin, Hawkins, Smith, Graham. I didn't have them all but had enough to hurt.

 
Jennings killed me. Still ended up just short of 120 and winning most games, but guessing a lot of guys pass me up. Just hoping for something less than a major meltdown, like weeks 1 and 3.

 
I am not even going to be cashing in on my 50/50s this week.

My only good plays were Glennon, Murray, Quick and even though they choked hard like always and lost the Lions Defense. Everyone else just took turns sucking.

 
Wow, brutal 1pm games. A lot of the same issues people have mentioned. Thanks goodness I decided to run the P. Manning/Thomas/Thomas stack in a couple of cheap tournaments or this week would be a total loss.

 
Well, I was 50% right on my Rivers-Allen stacks. Apparently I overestimated the ability of the Jets to cover somebody. I have a few Dalton-Green stacks left. Hope springs eternal.

 
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