FanDuel Week 16 - going out with a bang (1 Viewer)

[jerseys finest]

Last two weeks of the regular season folks and I’m down 60 bucks on the year... woo.... hoooo..... 

Anyways, on to week 16! This is my week! I can feel it! Just a first glance at the week. 

Qbs: Ben, Ryan, Brees, Wilson, Watson, Allen, Darnold, Foles. I’ll be fading Mahomes and Newton completely. I think Mahomes has a good game, but at that price, he needs to have a huge game. Cam just doesn’t look right

Rbs: Zeke, CMC, Gurley, Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Cook, Kamara, Lindsey, Williams or Ware, Samuels if Connor doesn’t play, Carson, Howard, J. Williams, McGuire. Tons of options at rb this week, pick your poison. I like a double stack of top rbs idea. 

wrs: I don’t like Diggs (slay) or woods (Peterson) and I like and could make a case for any wrs from the top down to Doug Baldwin. Past that point, Lockett, Landry, Fitz, Jeffery, Foster, Anderson, Thomas (HOU), Shepard (if OBJ is out)

te: Kelce. total crapshoot. Matchups seem to be worthless this year at this position. Luck is everything. Maybe I go Ebron? Haha. Get it? But seriously, I probably go cheap. Vannett, seals-jones, Brate, Herndon, engram(if OBJ out), cook, Ebron?

Def: any of the top 6 look like favorable matchups. Minny and bears look like the best to me. I also like Miami, NE, ATL, philly for cheaper options. 

 

[Bobcat10]

Good luck, J. I was almost all in last week after a disappointing season and got lucky with a nice cash. Your turn!

 

[Galileo]

Rbs: Zeke, CMC, Gurley, Barkley, Mixon, Chubb, Cook, Kamara, Lindsey, Williams or Ware, Samuels if Connor doesn’t play, Carson, Howard, J. Williams, McGuire. Tons of options at rb this week, pick your poison. I like a double stack of top rbs idea. 

Not sure if Gurley will play.  If he does, I fear he will be very limited as the Rams try to preserve him for the playoffs.  I think J. Williams will be looking a huge volume.

 

[Galileo]

My current placeholder...

Watson/Elliott, Chubb, J. Williams/JuJu, Jeffrey, Anderson/Ebron/NYJ

I like this RB group a lot, but not confident in the rest.  I was contemplating dropping to Foles for a cheap QB and reworking my WR group.  Also tempted to use the $2500 Arizona defense...

 

[reel_smooth]

Liking the Jets DEF a lot this week at 3200. Rodgers says he's still gonna play and try to be the leader; just not sure that the rest of the team will follow his lead. With Jones now on IR, not gonna be much of a running game - the defense can key on Rodgers and Adams.

 

[BassNBrew]

LOL...I know nothing about hockey and won $30 on a $4 entry.  This #### is really more luck than anything else.

 

[jerseys finest]

LOL...I know nothing about hockey and won $30 on a $4 entry.  This #### is really more luck than anything else.

It’s nice to have theories and maybe a choice few have actually figured something out, but I’m with you, it’s luck more than anything. I do seem to do better when I’m not reading all sorts of stuff and just go with my gut. But I’m a strategist, so lots of inner conflict each week.   I just need to break the ice with 1 big win after 3 years. Been close a whole bunch of times. I’m still in the green, but only slightly. 

 

[jdoggydogg]

it’s luck more than anything.

Oh yes. Unless you're submitting hundreds of tickets each week, luck is required. 

 

[Galileo]

My current placeholder...

Watson/Elliott, Chubb, J. Williams/JuJu, Jeffrey, Anderson/Ebron/NYJ

I like this RB group a lot, but not confident in the rest.  I was contemplating dropping to Foles for a cheap QB and reworking my WR group.  Also tempted to use the $2500 Arizona defense...

Foles/Elliott, Chubb, J. Williams/A. Brown, Edelman, Anderson/Ebron/NYJ

This line up still has $600 on the table.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Oh yes. Unless you're submitting hundreds of tickets each week, luck is required. 

Luck is still required if you do this.  

 

[jdoggydogg]

Luck is still required if you do this.  

There's less luck in a shark's 500 tickets than there is in my 12 tickets. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

There's less luck in a shark's 500 tickets than there is in my 12 tickets. 

To be fair, there's probably less luck in a shark's 12 tickets than there would be in my 500 tickets.  

 

[BassNBrew]

There's less luck in a shark's 500 tickets than there is in my 12 tickets. 

There's less luck in a shark's 500 tickets than there is in my 12 tickets. 

At 500 tickets you are getting severely dimensioning returns.  One guy with 100 entries may occasionally hit, but you don't hear about the 200 guys who come up losers each week.  The reason we feel like losers is that 25% of the money goes into 1st place and FD is taking another 15-18%.  Unless you are that one guy in 150,000, you are fighting  over 60%.  1 in 150,000 is 0.000666666667%.  You put in 1000 entires, you have a 6% chance of winning.  In the case of tonights NBA big tourney, you ended up splitting  the pot and not even making 5 digits.  Want to finish 100th out of 150,000....your odds went up to 0.0666666667%.  Not even a 1/10th of percent...but you get lucky and hit...you take home less than $100 on a $4.5 entry.  Think about it, you play 20 entires for $100 and have a 1.3% chance of one of those entries basically making your evening break even.

Tonight if you put in 2222 entires costing $9866 you would have had a less than a 1.5% chance of one of those entries being the best entry and covering your entry fees.  Now to be fair the remaining entires would have need you another $2500 to $3000, but you get the point.  If you didn't have the best lineup with that 1.5% chance, you lost money.

Bottom line is that we are playing a losing game unless there's overlay or are lucky.

 

[KarmaPolice]

At 500 tickets you are getting severely dimensioning returns.  One guy with 100 entries may occasionally hit, but you don't hear about the 200 guys who come up losers each week.  The reason we feel like losers is that 25% of the money goes into 1st place and FD is taking another 15-18%.  Unless you are that one guy in 150,000, you are fighting  over 60%.  1 in 150,000 is 0.000666666667%.  You put in 1000 entires, you have a 6% chance of winning.  In the case of tonights NBA big tourney, you ended up splitting  the pot and not even making 5 digits.  Want to finish 100th out of 150,000....your odds went up to 0.0666666667%.  Not even a 1/10th of percent...but you get lucky and hit...you take home less than $100 on a $4.5 entry.  Think about it, you play 20 entires for $100 and have a 1.3% chance of one of those entries basically making your evening break even.

Tonight if you put in 2222 entires costing $9866 you would have had a less than a 1.5% chance of one of those entries being the best entry and covering your entry fees.  Now to be fair the remaining entires would have need you another $2500 to $3000, but you get the point.  If you didn't have the best lineup with that 1.5% chance, you lost money.

Bottom line is that we are playing a losing game unless there's overlay or are lucky.

Plus I assume there is the big debate on how to handle those 100 entries.  Do you hammer in 4 core lineups with slight variations around each so if you hit you hit bigger by having similar lineups (or basically lose it all), or do you enter 100 fairly different LUs, but then you need even more luck to get your money back as you are just hoping for 1 of those 100 to hit.  

 

[jdoggydogg]

At 500 tickets you are getting severely dimensioning returns.  One guy with 100 entries may occasionally hit, but you don't hear about the 200 guys who come up losers each week.  The reason we feel like losers is that 25% of the money goes into 1st place and FD is taking another 15-18%.  Unless you are that one guy in 150,000, you are fighting  over 60%.  1 in 150,000 is 0.000666666667%.  You put in 1000 entires, you have a 6% chance of winning.  In the case of tonights NBA big tourney, you ended up splitting  the pot and not even making 5 digits.  Want to finish 100th out of 150,000....your odds went up to 0.0666666667%.  Not even a 1/10th of percent...but you get lucky and hit...you take home less than $100 on a $4.5 entry.  Think about it, you play 20 entires for $100 and have a 1.3% chance of one of those entries basically making your evening break even.

Everything you said is reasonable. Except from what I've read, the sharks make the most money in Fanduel by a huge margin, and most of them play a ton of tickets every week.

 

[Bobcat10]

Why does FD funnel you to what they want (in this case it seems like Sat Only and Sat single games)?  Sat-Mon right now has 4 open tournaments.  That's a joke. 

 

[Galileo]

Can someone please loan me $100 FanDuel budget dollars please.  I really need an extra $100 to get the line up I want.

 

[Bobcat10]

Can't recall a wider H-value gap than this one - Brieda is 40+ with Maurile and sub 17 with Bloom.  Against the Bears too.  Another site has him in an optimal lineup also.  

He's really in that much of a better spot than Williams and McGuire?

 

[Galileo]

Can't recall a wider H-value gap than this one - Brieda is 40+ with Maurile and sub 17 with Bloom.  Against the Bears too.  Another site has him in an optimal lineup also.  

He's really in that much of a better spot than Williams and McGuire?

I'm not seeing it either.  I have been on Williams all week, but have started leaning towards McGuire and changed my lineup accordingly.  I am even considering Alfred Blue to save a few more dollars to upgrade elsewhere.  Brieda has not been a player of interest for me.   Alshon Jeffrey also has a fairly big differential,  but reversed between the raters.

 

[Bobcat10]

I'm not seeing it either.  I have been on Williams all week, but have started leaning towards McGuire and changed my lineup accordingly.  I am even considering Alfred Blue to save a few more dollars to upgrade elsewhere.  Brieda has not been a player of interest for me.   Alshon Jeffrey also has a fairly big differential,  but reversed between the raters.

I like Alshon today. 

I think I put Brieda in 1 gpp lineup.

Built around Elliott, Samuels, Williams, Chubb, McGuire and Cook. Not earth shattering stuff, I know. 

 

[Galileo]

Well, For better or worse I am now locked in.

Foles/Elliott, Chubb, Williams/Hopkins, Hilton, Reynolds/Engram/Dallas

 

[BassNBrew]

Why is Anderson not on FD but listed in the Optimizer?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Just in one gpp, but Ertz was only 5% owned?? 

 

[Galileo]

Why is Anderson not on FD but listed in the Optimizer?

Something about him not being on a roster at the start of the week, so FanDuel left him out.  Not sure where they got the price data for the optimizer.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wilson kneel down cost me a cash.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Wilson kneel down cost me a cash.

If TT is right in the DK thread, the last C.West catch cost us a couple thousand $.  

Ended up 1st in my 10 man league.  FD just won't let me quit it.  I was down to my last 75cents, but now I am back to a whopping $10.60!!  

 

[BassNBrew]

Took 3rd in a small gpp, good for $100.  $10 in, $108 out.

 

[Bobcat10]

Just in one gpp, but Ertz was only 5% owned?? 

Noticed this as well, 7% and 8% in my Foles/Ertz lineups.  Those were my best too....3 turned to 30 with a 22nd finish and a mini cash+ went 7 to 18.  Also had a cash+ clear the quintuple line (always a good sign).  My account needed these last 2 weeks.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Total in $55. Total out $175. Top lineup scored 177. Good week this week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Total in $55. Total out $175. Top lineup scored 177. Good week this week.

Congrats