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Fantasy Football Luck or Skill? (1 Viewer)

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bruha76

Footballguy
Here's an endless debate my friends and I have. How much does skill and luck play into fantsay football?

The general reaction is 70% skill 30% luck.

Ive see as high as 90% skill 10% luck

and as low as 50% skill 50% luck.

What do you guys think?

 
bruha76 said:
Here's an endless debate my friends and I have. How much does skill and luck play into fantsay football?

The general reaction is 70% skill 30% luck.

Ive see as high as 90% skill 10% luck

and as low as 50% skill 50% luck.

What do you guys think?
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I have lost two super bowls to luck.
 
65% Luck in H2H leagues with Playoffs.

I've seen the best team go down so many times from a freak 1 week EXPLOSION by an opponent.

There's only so much you can do once your lineup is set.

 
I'd say redraft is 90% luck, which is why I only play in dynasty leagues now, hope to build a better team over years.

 
I think that fantasy football is 100% luck. If you post/read the FBG boards it drops down to 60% luck. If you actually subscribe to FBG it drops down to a miniscule 3.78% luck.

P.S. Hey guys, how is that for a sales pitch. Do I get the job? :rolleyes:

 
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bruha76 said:
Here's an endless debate my friends and I have. How much does skill and luck play into fantsay football?The general reaction is 70% skill 30% luck.Ive see as high as 90% skill 10% luckand as low as 50% skill 50% luck.What do you guys think?
Click to expand...
Ah, the annual % luck question. The answer is it will vary for each person over the course of the season. Here is the formula to use to get the correct answer for most folks here.Luck%=#Losses/#Games Played
 
In a standard re-draft league i believe it is 80% luck. 10 years ago when the internet wasn't such a popular tool it was probably 30-40% luck. You go to any re-draft and everyone has 3 or 4 cheetsheets that has information from an hour before the draft. Guys who don't even know Joey Harrington is an Atlanta falcon can draft off a top 200 list and just fill in RB,RB,WR,WR,QB,RB,WR and put together a competetive team. Then luck takes care of the rest.

 
The skill is that my team is always contending. But, to win the Super Bowl, it comes down to the luck of how players perform on a given week. All you can do is put your team in position to contend.

Here's a quote from last year on the subject: http://www.rotonation.com/?p=230

 
With such little variance across strategies (especially in some of your RB-dominant leagues) and such little variance across cheatsheets, I'd say anyone who thinks it's > 20% skill is out of their minds.

 
regular season 40% luck/ 60% skill

FF playoffs 90% luck/ 10% skill

the best team for the most part comes out on top during the regular season, this is why I have a regular season champ and a super bowl champ.

 
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Depends how good your opponents are. Some leagues require 75% skill some require %75 luck. Dynastys do boost the skills %age all the way around.

 
Riffraff said:
100% skill if I win. 100% luck if you do.
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:useless: last year I drafted the best team I've ever had, lost 1 game all season, had the most total points in the league by far, and was the #1 seed in the playoffs. I lost in the second round to the guy who started Ron Dayne as an injury fill-in on the game of his life.100% luck.
 
mcjc4 said:
In a standard re-draft league i believe it is 80% luck.
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I believe lol.
cobalt_27 said:
With such little variance across strategies (especially in some of your RB-dominant leagues) and such little variance across cheatsheets, I'd say anyone who thinks it's > 20% skill is out of their minds.
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:goodposting: Flawed analysis. What you mean to say is the diff. between someone who just grabs a "standard" cheatsheet and someone who does more "serious" analysis on their own is about 20%. Which is also flawed, although not as severely.Anyone who thinks it's all or mostly luck, tell you what: put the names of all the players - wait not even that, let's say the top 200 or so - in a hat and when it's your turn to draft, pick one out and draft that player (assuming you haven't filled out those positions already of course). No way? Why not, since according to you it's "all luck" - ?I think 70% skill is about right.
 
The question isn't really meaningful. What are the percentages, skill vs. luck, for poker? It doesn't really matter; skill will always win out in the long run. It only looks like luck if your sample size is too small (like looking at the results of one season in one league).

 
Gadfly said:
The skill is that my team is always contending. But, to win the Super Bowl, it comes down to the luck of how players perform on a given week. All you can do is put your team in position to contend.

Here's a quote from last year on the subject: http://www.rotonation.com/?p=230
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I whole-heartedly agree. The fact that I am in contention and finish in the $$$ every season is pure skill. Winning the Superbowl or Total Points Championship is where you need the luck to put you over the top.
 
I don't know the percentages, but I know the luck factor is greatly reduced in Total Points Leagues. In Head to Head, with playoffs, anything can happen. In my local, total points league it is very clear every year who does their work and who does not. Some teams have finished in the bottom half of the league for the last 5+ years. They'll tell you it's bad luck, but I can truely say it's just a lack of preparation and common sense. And of course me finishing at or near the top most years is 100% skill.

 
My two standard answers to this annual question are:

1. The perceived amount of luck in FF is inversely proportional to an individual owner's amount of success.

2. The impact of luck is diminished as larger periods of time are observed

In any one week, a head-to-head matchup is largely determined by luck.

Over the course of a single season. luck tends to even out, but it still is very significant (schedule, byes, etc.)

Over multiple seasons, consistently fielding strong teams requires more skill than luck.

Applying these ideas to head-to-head competition is a more detailed way of saying that making the playoffs often requires more skill than luck, but winning the playoffs often involves more luck than skill.

Total Points Leagues (in part or in whole) diminish significant aspects of luck due to scheduling, and are always a point of emphasis when I am a commissioner.

Auction leagues eliminate elements of luck present in a draft; specifically, draft order for top picks and drafting near strong vs. weak owners.

 
BigRed said:
mcjc4 said:
In a standard re-draft league i believe it is 80% luck.
Click to expand...
I believe lol.
cobalt_27 said:
With such little variance across strategies (especially in some of your RB-dominant leagues) and such little variance across cheatsheets, I'd say anyone who thinks it's > 20% skill is out of their minds.
Click to expand...
:mellow: Flawed analysis. What you mean to say is the diff. between someone who just grabs a "standard" cheatsheet and someone who does more "serious" analysis on their own is about 20%. Which is also flawed, although not as severely.Anyone who thinks it's all or mostly luck, tell you what: put the names of all the players - wait not even that, let's say the top 200 or so - in a hat and when it's your turn to draft, pick one out and draft that player (assuming you haven't filled out those positions already of course). No way? Why not, since according to you it's "all luck" - ?I think 70% skill is about right.
Click to expand...
I think the flaw in this reasoning is that the "base" level of fantasy smarts is much higher than that. Anyone-- ANYONE-- can take a basic cheat sheet and not embarrass themselves. Anyone can get up-to-date starter and injury information. The question is: Are the things that separate each owner from this base level mostly luck or skill? Basically, we're talking about landing quality players in each round, taking advantage of others' mistakes, having a sound stretegy, waiver wire management, trade negotiations, etc. vs the randomness of injuries, a guy having a great game or terrible game at a certain time or running into the wrong team in the wrong week. I'd have to say it's about 25 percent skill, 25 percent luck and 50 percent eaten up by a base level of common knowledge and access to information. This isn't the same game it was 10 years ago. You could keep track of every off-season happening and I could catch up to you in less than an hour of surfing. In effect, you can only manipulate about a quarter of "the game" to tilt in your favor...but really, that's enough to consistently do well over a long period of time.
 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I'd have to say it's about 25 percent skill, 25 percent luck and 50 percent eaten up by a base level of common knowledge and access to information. This isn't the same game it was 10 years ago. You could keep track of every off-season happening and I could catch up to you in less than an hour of surfing. In effect, you can only manipulate about a quarter of "the game" to tilt in your favor...but really, that's enough to consistently do well over a long period of time.
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The accessibility of information has narrowed the skill gap in most leagues.
 
In my main leagueI have never won a SuperBowl with my best teams, I have won two with mediocre teams.

You just have to put yourself in a position to win every year and hope the odds are with you. A couple of years ago I had the highest scoring team ever..I lost to the guy who had Santana Moss when Moss caught 3 bombs for TDs in one game, and had around 250 receiving.

The funny thing is the guy had not played Moss in three weeks because he was stinking it up, then he had a WR get hurt and had to play him.

What are you going to do??

 
I would guess that those who have been victims of bad luck would bump that percentage due to their own experience - I recall in 2004 I had the best team in my league by far; most points scored only 1 loss (head-to-head) and was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs by the guy who had Drew Bennett when he was on his amazing 2 or 3 game TD tear.

I would say 65% skill, 35% luck in head-to-head redraft.

Ni

 
I think it is probably about 70% skill.

However, I also know that if that 30% luck is REALLY bad luck (injured players, play each teams best performance etc...) then that 70% skill can be totally useless.

 
Winning your league's regular season is 80% skill/20% luck.

Winning your league's playoff & Super Bowl is 20% skill/80% luck.

 
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How can you say this is skill? Are you the one playing the game?

Making the decision of drafting C.Johnson or Harrison is skill? Do you work Harison out? Have you watched the Colts or the Bengals offense first hand and talked to the players in the trainers room? NO! How can you say it's skill?

Obviously there is common sense skill as to not draft 5 kickers. Some decisions as to draft a RB or a WR when your turn comes up. But to say that player you take has a career year and you picked him is skill, is a far far reach on reality.

I'm going 80% luck and 20% skill.

Person A has the #1 pick and takes LT....damn he is a skillful FF owner. On the loop around he takes the top two players (RB/WR) on his draft sheet...damn how does he do that....a mastermind at work here, everyone take notes.

btw: His draft sheet was printed off the footballguys website (Brilliant!)

 
jcjets said:
How can you say this is skill? Are you the one playing the game? Making the decision of drafting C.Johnson or Harrison is skill? Do you work Harison out? Have you watched the Colts or the Bengals offense first hand and talked to the players in the trainers room? NO! How can you say it's skill?Obviously there is common sense skill as to not draft 5 kickers. Some decisions as to draft a RB or a WR when your turn comes up. But to say that player you take has a career year and you picked him is skill, is a far far reach on reality.I'm going 80% luck and 20% skill.Person A has the #1 pick and takes LT....damn he is a skillful FF owner. On the loop around he takes the top two players (RB/WR) on his draft sheet...damn how does he do that....a mastermind at work here, everyone take notes.btw: His draft sheet was printed off the footballguys website (Brilliant!)
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You're saying that the first two rounds doesn't take much skill. I can agree with that.But most of us play in leagues that start more than two players.
 
Depends on what exactly you are talking about

In a 12 team league, finishing in the top 3 is 70% skill, 30% luck

Winning a 12 team league through a playoff is 50% skill, 50% luck

 
I believe where most of the skill comes into play is after the draft - working the waiver wire and trades, picking up players that are soon to come off of injury, buying low, selling high, evaluating matchups, etc. rely on owners' skill as opposed to the draft where you can bring a magazine and come out with a decent squad. One of the reasons I had such a great year in 2004 was because of Julius Jones and Larry Johnson. Jones was injured early in the season and his owner dropped him. I picked Jones up in week 5 or 6 and tucked him away, and I picked up Johnson off of the waiver wire after Priest got hurt, just in case Blaylock went down (which he did).

Last year our super bowl winner had as his starting RB's Travis Henry, Corey Dillon, and Fred Taylor - he was lucky enough to have the fewest points scored against him and just played the matchups with those 3. The team who had Tomlinson missed the playoffs last year because even though he led the league in scoring, he also set a league record for points scored against. Luck always plays a factor in head-to-head play ... but as I said, most of the skill comes into play after the draft.

Ni

 
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fsufan said:
regular season 40% luck/ 60% skillFF playoffs 90% luck/ 10% skillthe best team for the most part comes out on top during the regular season, this is why I have a regular season champ and a super bowl champ.
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I agree 100%. Of course, many egos suggest a much higher skill rate. The human ego would thereby ignore such obvious factors such as injuries. To examine the luck factor, one need look no further than the numerous stories about FF teams in H2H leagues who are at the top of their league in overall points, yet miss the playoffs due to facing the 1 team in particular weeks who happened to score more points that week. Yes, the random selection of your league schedule in a H2H week plays a large role in success. Random = luck.
 
I think the league setup is the largest factor in all of this.

I've played in smaller H2H leagues with small rosters and TD heavy point systems where it seemed like pure luck (and the records showed it with everyone within 2 games of .500). Then I've played in 12 team leagues with huge rosters, IDP & no playoffs where the same guys finish in the top every year.

The greater the complexity, the greater the skill involved. Larger leagues with larger rosters and lots of points scored allows more skilled owners more chances to take advantage. This also applies to dynasty leagues as several have mentioned.

 
I remember COlin has something in his sig about poker and FFL and good players know there is limited luck and bad players thinking it's all luck.

Really though in a H2H playoff league were everything rides on one week, there is luck.

But analyze any league with X+ years going and you know who has the skills and who dont. Over time the better players will win their points championships and superbowl. And more of them.

 
You make your won luck by drafting depth, because that's what wins in FF. Sucks if your #1 WR goes down, but if you've got Robert Ferguson as your best backup, you're not very skillful.

 
cobalt_27 said:
With such little variance across strategies (especially in some of your RB-dominant leagues) and such little variance across cheatsheets, I'd say anyone who thinks it's > 20% skill is out of their minds.
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It depends heavily on the people in the league. Despite what most people here seem to think, leagues full of FBG board posters are not an example of normal FF players. I run a fantasy sports forum on a site that gets a more realistic cross-section of "normal" people who play FF. Concepts that are second nature for us here, like how to determine value, how to effectively utilize your roster space, etc, most people do not understand. The "normal" FF owner still misvalues QBs, carries backups who are no better than guys who can be taken from waivers, and takes hard-to-predict positions too early.In my work league which had a spread of owner levels which is more appropriate to what is out there than most shark leagues, from 2000-2006 every single championship and best regular season title was won by the same 2 owners. (Odds of that happening if it's 100% luck, 1 in 46,656). In another league which has more skilled owners than that work league, but still isn't 100% sharks, over the same 7 year stretch only 4 owners have won the championship and those 4 teams own all the super bowl appearances except for 2.Contrast that with the remnants of Survivor II here on the FBG boards, with 2/3 FBG staffers and 1/3 long-time board posters. In 4 years it's hard to say what trends are showing up. Some teams seem to consistently be in the running for points total and survivor champ more than others, but you also see a lot more of an owner who was in the running the year before dropping off and having a worst team the next year.In short, I think people on this board over-estimate the role of luck simply because they play in leagues with owners of similar skill, which are not really representative of what you find out there in the general populace. Maybe an experiment is in order. We get as many FBG to sign up for as many random yahoo public leagues as they are willing, and compile what the winning percentage is both in regular season games and championships. If it's less than 20% skill, for a 12 team league we'd probably only win 1 in 10 leagues. I'd think we'd win a lot more than that.
 
I cant put a percentage down but I have to say it's a lot of skill. In the league that I have been in the longest there have been a core group of 10 guys who play every year and we usually turnover another 2 guys. Over the last 6 years, I have won it twice, another owner has won it twice, one owner who is always in the top 5 has one it once, and then a scrub one it once.

You can usually predict the top four every year but I also dont play with a bunch of sharks.

 
GregR said:
Maybe an experiment is in order. We get as many FBG to sign up for as many random yahoo public leagues as they are willing, and compile what the winning percentage is both in regular season games and championships. If it's less than 20% skill, for a 12 team league we'd probably only win 1 in 10 leagues. I'd think we'd win a lot more than that.
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I have not made an formal study of any type, but over the last couple of years informally I have talked/corresponded with about 10-12 expeienced fantasy players who have played in yahoo or nfl.com public leagues for live practice drafting and played the season. Almost all of them made the playoffs, but with "only" 3 or 4 titles won. I would love to see the percentages, if we got a good sample size and formal method of study versus my memory of random conversasions.
 
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