Fantasy Football (1 Viewer)

[Love to Bet football]

I'm thinking its about 70% skill and 30% luck because even though we have no control of what the players do on the field,we do have the ability to do lots of research and put the best possible team on the field each week

What do you think the percentage would be for luck and skill in fantasy football?

 

[Juxtatarot]

100% skill when you win. 100% luck when you lose.

 

[PsychoMan]

To be successful in the regular season (first 13 games or so), about 70/30.

To actually WIN the league through a fantasy playoff, it's hard to really say, but I honestly think about 50/50.

I've seen yahoo drafted teams just about go the distance in competitive leagues. No joke.

I've also seen bottom seeds beat top seeds in a fantasy playoff matchup. #### happens.

 

[CrossEyed]

I think it takes a good deal of skill to put up a good record all season. Once you get to the playoffs where it's one and done it's 99% luck.

 

[comfortably numb]

You can vote on it HERE

OR

Discuss it HERE

 

[Mario Kart]

Search = 100% skill

 

[(HULK)]

In head to head leagues, the regular season is 75% skill and the post season is 75% luck.

 

[Bankerguy]

In head to head leagues, the regular season is 75% skill and the post season is 75% luck.

That's about right.

 

[Da Guru]

Lets see the guy who is running away with my 14 team league pulled the #3 pick out of a hat.

Drafted LT with that pick. Drafted Drew Brees as his "backup" QB in the 10th rd. Took a 15 rd flyer on Maurice Drew as his 5th RB.

Those guys alone might have put him into the playoffs. Maybe a little luck involved there.

 

[One]

In head to head leagues, the regular season is 75% skill and the post season is 75% luck.

#1 seed/#1 points (ME) plays the #8 seed (equipped with FWP, Sammy Morris & Gates)a lotta' luck in this one. thank god i still stand a chance.

 

[Sweeper]

Every post in here refers to luck/skill during any giving year. I like to think of it a bit differently.

During any given season, someone can make it to the playoffs and perhaps even win their super bowl and do so entirely on luck.

When you make it to the playoffs and win your leagues consistently (lets say 80% or better) luck has less and less to do with it unless of course it is bad luck.

Just like poker, you can get lucky and win one night but you are not going to get lucky and win the WSOP year after year.

 

[Marc Levin]

Search = 100% skill

Where's the "rather win it all once or be in the playoffs every year" thread?

 

[Marc Levin]

Lets see the guy who is running away with my 14 team league puuled the #3 pick out of a hat.Drafted LT with that pick. Drafted Drew Bress as his "backup" QB in the 10th rd. Took a 15 rd flyer on Maurice Drew as his 5th RB.Those guys alone might have put him into the playoffs. Maybe a little luck involved there.

And a good amount of skill - sounds like good value with Drew in the 10th and a flyer on M J-D behind Taylor in the 15th is about right.

 

[Marc Levin]

BTW, on the luck v. skill, I have made the playoffs each of the last 5 years in my big $$ league, been to three of the last four Super Bowls, won two of them, I am the #2 seed and one win away from another Bowl appearance.

Luck or skill? Skill to get myself in great positions at the end of each year - including p/u players who I think will be strong late and having the balls to start them - but, there's a fair amount of luck in actually winning any one FF game, including the Super Bowl.

 

[Marc Levin]

last point - WAY WAY WAY more luck over skill in redraft leagues over dynasty leagues..

 

[NJ OAK]

Currently sitting 7th in a redraft league with the second highest point total (11 points from the highest). I've always contended that FF is mostly luck. ~50-60

(edited to add that I'm ahead right now and will probably get the #6 seed. Justice.)

 

[Couch Potato]

I think people are overlooking an important factor - the degree of skill of the competition.

If I'm playing with people who are fairly new to all of this, my skill will very likely win out a high percentage of the time.

If I'm in a league where all participants are equal in skill level, by default the results are going to be determined by a high luck percentage.

 

[Buckle]

I think 70/30 is a good percentage weight for the regular season.

However, the game changes completely in the playoffs as the NFL teams playoffs scenarios are decided. So the luck plays a bigger factor (good and bad luck). By then, the best teams are resting their star players in Week 16 and 17 (i.e. recall Colts last year). Same thing could happen to LT this year (but still in battle with Colts for No.1 seed). Plus some teams out of it might revert back to preseason mode already to try out players (i.e. the Texans RBs).

 

[Kasparov]

last point - WAY WAY WAY more luck over skill in redraft leagues over dynasty leagues..

And also, way more luck in leagues where you are pitted HTH against another fantasy team each week, way more luck if you are in a league with divisions and you play those teams more, etc. FF is easily 90% luck if not more in leagues like this. Most leagues are won by teams with low points against, not necesarily high points for, so it all depends on who you play each week, which in most cases is determined randomly, i.e. luck.

 

[shredhead]

100% skill when you win. 100% luck when you lose.

Why did anyone bother posting after this? This is obviously the correct answer.

 

[Couch Potato]

100% skill when you win. 100% luck when you lose.

Why did anyone bother posting after this? This is obviously the correct answer.

So, the calculation for this should be Wins/games played = degree of skill.If I'm 7-6, FF is 54% skill and 46% luck. If I'm 12-1, it's 92% skill and 8% luck. If I'm 3-10, it's 23% skill and 77% luck.The formula may not be accurate, but it's good for the ego.