Fantasy Football's biggest secret, yet most fail (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

When do studs no longer become studs, and do you connect on that in time to reap the rewards? Did you get rid of Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Jerome Bettis, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Jerry Rice, Robert Smith, Eddie George, Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, and countless others at the time when their value was at it's highest, or did you hang on too long and get little to nothing? Of course injury does play a major part in this, but so does decline in productivity that people just don't seem to pay enough attention to. Also, change of situation plays a role.

Well, I think this is probably the 2nd most important thing for dynasty leagues. More important than your ability to draft, and only 2nd in your ability to trade. I think I listed this in the 7 step program much lower, but I'm not so sure I should have.

So, the next thing will be, when do I trade LT2?. Some close to that time right now might be Shaun Alexander and Edge. This seems to apply to RBs the most, with WRs second, and QBs third. Obviously RBs NFL life is short compared to QBs and WRs. Maybe McNabb belongs in this group?

Edited to say that the only reason I mentioned Robert Smith is because one could have known he was going to retire. One smart dude that had other options.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Better to trade someone a year too early than a year too late. For the right price you must be willing to trade anybody.

 

[NOONAN]

When do studs no longer become studs, and do you connect on that in time to reap the rewards? Did you get rid of Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Jerome Bettis, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Jerry Rice, Robert Smith, Eddie George, Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, and countless others at the time when their value was at it's highest, or did you hang on too long and get little to nothing? Of course injury does play a major part in this, but so does decline in productivity that people just don't seem to pay enough attention to. Also, change of situation plays a role.

Well, I think this is probably the 2nd most important thing for dynasty leagues. More important than your ability to draft, and only 2nd in your ability to trade. I think I listed this in the 7 step program much lower, but I'm not so sure I should have.

So, the next thing will be, when do I trade LT2?. Some close to that time right now might be Shaun Alexander and Edge. This seems to apply to RBs the most, with WRs second, and QBs third. Obviously RBs NFL life is short compared to QBs and WRs. Maybe McNabb belongs in this group?

It might be too late already...

 

[Traders2001]

When do studs no longer become studs, and do you connect on that in time to reap the rewards? Did you get rid of Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Jerome Bettis, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Jerry Rice, Robert Smith, Eddie George, Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, and countless others at the time when their value was at it's highest, or did you hang on too long and get little to nothing? Of course injury does play a major part in this, but so does decline in productivity that people just don't seem to pay enough attention to. Also, change of situation plays a role.Well, I think this is probably the 2nd most important thing for dynasty leagues. More important than your ability to draft, and only 2nd in your ability to trade. I think I listed this in the 7 step program much lower, but I'm not so sure I should have.So, the next thing will be, when do I trade LT2?. Some close to that time right now might be Shaun Alexander and Edge. This seems to apply to RBs the most, with WRs second, and QBs third. Obviously RBs NFL life is short compared to QBs and WRs. Maybe McNabb belongs in this group?Edited to say that the only reason I mentioned Robert Smith is because one could have known he was going to retire. One smart dude that had other options.

I traded Michael Vick two weeks before they started the investigation , that was a hell of a timing.

 

[JohnnyU]

When do studs no longer become studs, and do you connect on that in time to reap the rewards? Did you get rid of Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Jerome Bettis, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Jerry Rice, Robert Smith, Eddie George, Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, and countless others at the time when their value was at it's highest, or did you hang on too long and get little to nothing? Of course injury does play a major part in this, but so does decline in productivity that people just don't seem to pay enough attention to. Also, change of situation plays a role.Well, I think this is probably the 2nd most important thing for dynasty leagues. More important than your ability to draft, and only 2nd in your ability to trade. I think I listed this in the 7 step program much lower, but I'm not so sure I should have.So, the next thing will be, when do I trade LT2?. Some close to that time right now might be Shaun Alexander and Edge. This seems to apply to RBs the most, with WRs second, and QBs third. Obviously RBs NFL life is short compared to QBs and WRs. Maybe McNabb belongs in this group?Edited to say that the only reason I mentioned Robert Smith is because one could have known he was going to retire. One smart dude that had other options.

I traded Michael Vick two weeks before they started the investigation , that was a hell of a timing.

Cool !, and I traded Ricky Williams for a boat load as soon as I saw him wearing a helmet during an indoor podium interview.

 

[Juicecore]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason.

He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

 

[JohnnyU]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason.

He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

Sure, maybe he does, but the point of this thread is to get rid of these guys before they turn into mush. Trade them while their value is high, but don't have much left in the tank. I feel SA and Edge fall into this category. Yes, both could be productive for 2 or 3 years, but doesn't it make since to get the most for them now before they start to decline even more?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Brian Westbrook?

Marvin Harrison?

 

[JohnnyU]

Brian Westbrook?Marvin Harrison?

Harrison for sure

 

[Juicecore]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason.

He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

Sure, maybe he does, but the point of this thread is to get rid of these guys before they turn into mush. Trade them while their value is high, but don't have much left in the tank. I feel SA and Edge fall into this category. Yes, both could be productive for 2 or 3 years, but doesn't it make since to get the most for them now before they start to decline even more?

Edge just had a good game so some sucker might over pay for him. However, Alexander is coming off his worst season as a starter and hasn't done all that much this year. So, I think he'll be worth more later this year or even in the offseason so I think that will be the ideal time to trade him. Anyways, I hope I'm right lol... Only time will tell

 

[ClownDogs]

Brian Westbrook?Marvin Harrison?

Harrison for sure

Not sure you can say that, I have seen people saying the same thing for the past couple years, he just keeps getting better and better.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Some players won't go for what they should simply because people think they'll fall off a cliff any day now. Marvin is someone a lot of owners won't pay through the nose for but he's so good you should just ride him 'til he's done.

 

[JohnnyU]

Brian Westbrook?Marvin Harrison?

Harrison for sure

Not sure you can say that, I have seen people saying the same thing for the past couple years, he just keeps getting better and better.

There is more at stake here than ability. Sure Marvin could play another 7 or 8 years, and probably 4 or 5 of those years at a high level. However, I happen to believe that he will retire within the next 3 years. He's a quiet guy that hands the ball to the ref when he scores instead of putting on a show. He appears to be standoffish, when in fact that is just his personality. If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

 

[Capella]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

you offered nothing to support that other than "he hands the ball to the ref".

 

[Max Power]

so trade running backs when they hit 29? big secret.

 

[supermark_28]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason.

He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

Sure, maybe he does, but the point of this thread is to get rid of these guys before they turn into mush. Trade them while their value is high, but don't have much left in the tank. I feel SA and Edge fall into this category. Yes, both could be productive for 2 or 3 years, but doesn't it make since to get the most for them now before they start to decline even more?

Edge just had a good game so some sucker might over pay for him. However, Alexander is coming off his worst season as a starter and hasn't done all that much this year. So, I think he'll be worth more later this year or even in the offseason so I think that will be the ideal time to trade him. Anyways, I hope I'm right lol... Only time will tell

Personally,I'm happy with the 2 td's so far this season. The cast on the wrist isn't the most comforting to a prospective trading partner but if he scores a couple more td's you'll find a trading partner. I would agree that this might the year to deal him but who you would get in return might be a crapshoot.

 

[JohnnyU]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

you offered nothing to support that other than "he hands the ball to the ref".

Ok, maybe I'll offer that he has already accomplished everything in the sport that I believe Marvin wants to. I'm a Colts homer and I would hate the day Marvin retires, but it's coming soon, you can bet on that. I'm not so sure football is the most important thing in Harrison's life.

 

[JohnnyU]

so trade running backs when they hit 29? big secret.

Secret is a relative term. It's a secret becasue most fantasy players still don't know when the right time is. There is more to it than age. You have to factor in situation, use, past injuries, etc. etc. Together it's a mystery

 

[AnonymousBob]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

you offered nothing to support that other than "he hands the ball to the ref".

Ok, maybe I'll offer that he has already accomplished everything in the sport that I believe Marvin wants to. I'm a Colts homer and I would hate the day Marvin retires, but it's coming soon, you can bet on that. I'm not so sure football is the most important thing in Harrison's life.

My point is, EVERYONE knows he'll be retiring relatively soon. At least that's the perception. So do you ride out the last couple years of elite fantasy production or do you trade him away for less than someone who produces at that high of a level should go for? Certain players you either ride into the ground or you have to take much inferior talent.

 

[JohnnyU]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

you offered nothing to support that other than "he hands the ball to the ref".

Ok, maybe I'll offer that he has already accomplished everything in the sport that I believe Marvin wants to. I'm a Colts homer and I would hate the day Marvin retires, but it's coming soon, you can bet on that. I'm not so sure football is the most important thing in Harrison's life.

My point is, EVERYONE knows he'll be retiring relatively soon. At least that's the perception. So do you ride out the last couple years of elite fantasy production or do you trade him away for less than someone who produces at that high of a level should go for? Certain players you either ride into the ground or you have to take much inferior talent.

In dynasty leagues I prefer to get someone like Calvin Johnson in a Harrison trade right now. No one says it has to be a 1 for 1.

 

[AnonymousBob]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

you offered nothing to support that other than "he hands the ball to the ref".

Ok, maybe I'll offer that he has already accomplished everything in the sport that I believe Marvin wants to. I'm a Colts homer and I would hate the day Marvin retires, but it's coming soon, you can bet on that. I'm not so sure football is the most important thing in Harrison's life.

My point is, EVERYONE knows he'll be retiring relatively soon. At least that's the perception. So do you ride out the last couple years of elite fantasy production or do you trade him away for less than someone who produces at that high of a level should go for? Certain players you either ride into the ground or you have to take much inferior talent.

In dynasty leagues I prefer to get someone like Calvin Johnson in a Harrison trade right now. No one says it has to be a 1 for 1.

I suppose it depends on your league. I'm sure there are some leagues where Calvin Johnson owners won't part with him for Harrison.

 

[JohnnyU]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

you offered nothing to support that other than "he hands the ball to the ref".

Ok, maybe I'll offer that he has already accomplished everything in the sport that I believe Marvin wants to. I'm a Colts homer and I would hate the day Marvin retires, but it's coming soon, you can bet on that. I'm not so sure football is the most important thing in Harrison's life.

My point is, EVERYONE knows he'll be retiring relatively soon. At least that's the perception. So do you ride out the last couple years of elite fantasy production or do you trade him away for less than someone who produces at that high of a level should go for? Certain players you either ride into the ground or you have to take much inferior talent.

In dynasty leagues I prefer to get someone like Calvin Johnson in a Harrison trade right now. No one says it has to be a 1 for 1.

I suppose it depends on your league. I'm sure there are some leagues where Calvin Johnson owners won't part with him for Harrison.

Key part to my statement is "no one says it has to be 1 for 1". The art of the trade can surly appease owners trying to win now to offer up Harrison + for Johnson. That isn't out of the realm of possibility.

 

[DWidmar]

I traded LT this past off season. It might have been a year to early but it would be hard to have higher value than what he had. I also think it is one year to late on Alexander. I have been offered a couple of trades and other owners seem to be down on him. I think if I am going to trade him he has to have a couple of big games in a row then I might get some better value.

Harrison's value is low in our league even though he is a stud because our league all feels like he is going to fall apart any day now. We had a long heated debate over this on our message board. The only one with value for him was his owner.

I agree drafting is important to stay ahead in a dynasty league but I think there is a luck factor in that as well. I personally like to build through trades and I feel like I do a great job of analyzing who to trade with based on their needs and on mine. Sometimes I am making moves planning for another trade to get a player I want. It is also extremely important to keep up to date on the waiver wire and take chances on good prospects. I picked up both Berrian and Colston last year by staying ahead and taking chances. I do tend to waste some pick up and cuts though.

 

[Schrute]

Brian Westbrook?Marvin Harrison?

Harrison for sure

Just for the reasons JohnnyU has mentioned, I traded Harrison away in a dynasty league this offseason for Lee Evans and the No. 2 rookie pick (Calvin Johnson).

 

[coachjim]

I read this post and was going to put my 2 cents worth in then decided not to. I came back an hour later an after reading the answers decided to post.

In my humble opinion it is not when you are ready to trade a player but when you pick up the young players that really count.

I bought into a full dynasty league in 2000. The team I bought finished in last place of an 8 team TD heavy league. I had a few good players but did have Marshall Faulk. At the time he was at the peak of his career. I traded him for 3 good players. I finished in 5th place in 2000. Since then I have won the league in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. These are very savvy football guys. Since that first trade I don't think I have traded again. I am very difficult to trade with. I prefer to use the waiver wire and the draft to build my team

My current team and how I acquired them: You must have 2 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 2-TE, 2- PK, 2-DEF and 1 player at any position.

Hass- Waivers

Roth- Draft

LJ- Waivers (mid 2004)

FWP- Waivers (His first year)

Portis- Draft, Last pick first round

Norwood - Draft

Fatdale- Draft

Evans- Draft Last pick first round

Roy Williams- Draft Last pick first round

Bruce- On team when I bought it in 2000

Branch- Waivers - When he was holding out

Colston- Waivers Last year week #2.

Rackers- Waiver

Stover- Waivers

Gates- Draft

Chargers D Waivers

Bengals D Waivers

So all in all even though I have made no trade for any current player my team has performed very well over the years.

This is a league that pays out about $7-800 for 1st place.

So in my 16 years of playing fantasy football I have come to the conclusion that he who acts the fastest on the waiver wire does better that the gut who is constantly trading.

 

[JohnnyU]

So in my 16 years of playing fantasy football I have come to the conclusion that he who acts the fastest on the waiver wire does better that the gut who is constantly trading.

I agree with your statement "constantly trading", but I disagree with your statement towards trading in general vs the WW. It has been my experience that a great trade will help your team long term more than a WW pickup. There is a reason why players are on the WW most of the time. Yes, you can get a gem or two, but I can do better accumulating gems via the trade than the WW anyday, and I'm usually one of the first for the hot WW pickup. If you are good at trading you can turn a team around a lot faster than waiting on that gem on the WW.

 

[coachjim]

So in my 16 years of playing fantasy football I have come to the conclusion that he who acts the fastest on the waiver wire does better that the gut who is constantly trading.

I agree with your statement "constantly trading", but I disagree with your statement towards trading in general vs the WW. It has been my experience that a great trade will help your team long term more than a WW pickup. There is a reason why players are on the WW most of the time. Yes, you can get a gem or two, but I can do better accumulating gems via the trade than the WW anyday, and I'm usually one of the first for the hot WW pickup. If you are good at trading you can turn a team around a lot faster than waiting on that gem on the WW.

By the way I love your avatar. Now there was a QB.I guess it is just two ways to approach the same end. WINNING. I will be the first to agree that trades can build a team fast. That is why I traded Faulk in 2000. But since then I figured I could make my team the way I wanted to without trading away any of my core players. As an example I had Bettis for years. But instead of trading him away when he was still the big gun in Steelerland I draft Portis to fill the void when he retired. Portis just happened to catch fire in Denver.Also I said I am tough to trade with. If I can't get the advantage I won't trade.So all in all we both have a different way to arrive at the same conclusion---- WINNING

 

[az_prof]

Contrary to the premise of this thread, I think one of the secrets of fantasy football is not over valuing "young guys with upside" over veterans who have proven what they can do. It happens every year. First, in dynasty leagues, people over value rookie draft picks. Then during regular drafts people will unload players like Isaac Bruce (still producing) Joey Galloway (still producing) Alexander and Edge (both still producing) for unproven, young players.

This mistake is fatal in redraft.

In dynasty, it can also be a problem as people who are so impatient may get rid of a player after the blush of rookie "upside" value has worn off, but before the player has produced. I am thinking of players like Meachem for example, this year. Last year I picked up Brandon Marshall and Brandon Jones late in the year in my dynasty after other owners gave up on them.

Bottom line is that you need to do a quality analysis of players ability and how it fits your scoring and starting requirements. Then you need to have some faith. I for one am not going to unload Lee Evans for example, or Shaun Alexander or Donovan McNabb for some lousy rookie draft picks.

 

[coachjim]

So in my 16 years of playing fantasy football I have come to the conclusion that he who acts the fastest on the waiver wire does better that the gut who is constantly trading.

I agree with your statement "constantly trading", but I disagree with your statement towards trading in general vs the WW. It has been my experience that a great trade will help your team long term more than a WW pickup. There is a reason why players are on the WW most of the time. Yes, you can get a gem or two, but I can do better accumulating gems via the trade than the WW anyday, and I'm usually one of the first for the hot WW pickup. If you are good at trading you can turn a team around a lot faster than waiting on that gem on the WW.

Can you post your current team and how you acquired each player? Just curious. Of course I realize it is probably more than an 8 team league. Most are.

 

[coachjim]

Contrary to the premise of this thread, I think one of the secrets of fantasy football is not over valuing "young guys with upside" over veterans who have proven what they can do. It happens every year. First, in dynasty leagues, people over value rookie draft picks. Then during regular drafts people will unload players like Isaac Bruce (still producing) Joey Galloway (still producing) Alexander and Edge (both still producing) for unproven, young players. This mistake is fatal in redraft.In dynasty, it can also be a problem as people who are so impatient may get rid of a player after the blush of rookie "upside" value has worn off, but before the player has produced. I am thinking of players like Meachem for example, this year. Last year I picked up Brandon Marshall and Brandon Jones late in the year in my dynasty after other owners gave up on them.Bottom line is that you need to do a quality analysis of players ability and how it fits your scoring and starting requirements. Then you need to have some faith. I for one am not going to unload Lee Evans for example, or Shaun Alexander or Donovan McNabb for some lousy rookie draft picks.

Well put. Patience is a virtue.

 

[JohnnyU]

Bottom line is that you need to do a quality analysis of players ability and how it fits your scoring and starting requirements. Then you need to have some faith. I for one am not going to unload Lee Evans for example, or Shaun Alexander or Donovan McNabb for some lousy rookie draft picks.

No one says you have to unload these players for rookie draft picks. The key is to unoad these players at the right time for value that will be more beneficial to your dynasty team long term, and that could include draft picks and /or players.

 

[-OZ-]

I traded Michael Vick two weeks before they started the investigation , that was a hell of a timing.

Same here, with Mark Clayton for Tom Brady.I also traded Marshall Faulk in time to get Darrell Jackson and Thomas Jones for him. Wasn't a deal I loved at the time, but easily was the "high" point before he fell off. Yet, I can't pull myself to trade LT. FWIW, looking at my main leagues, I traded for every starter, so for me, good trading is the key. Of course, that requires good drafting or trading picks. Trading picks for good value may be more important than trading an aging player, odds are you'll get more out of the old guy than the unproven rookie.

 

[dickey moe]

I traded LT this past off season. It might have been a year to early but it would be hard to have higher value than what he had.

Who did you get for LT?

 

[moderated]

I don't really think it's a secret at all, it's just that there is no way to predict and time the moves perfectly all the time.

It's like the stock market, some do it better than others but no one gets it right all the time.

 

[faulkfan]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason. He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

I put Alexander on the block this off season and people were looking at him as a buy low. My attitude was that even though he didn't have the dominant OL anymore that he was still going to get all the goalline carries on a team that was probably going to score a substantial amount of points.I do, however, intend to deal him this upcoming off season. He may have one more good year in him after 2007, and maybe even 2, but I'm not going to push it. I kept Faulk one year too long. I kept him over McGahee thinking Faulk had one more big year left and I ended up dealing him late in the season for a guy on IR so I could make a roster move. The guy I picked up with the roster move turned out to be Larry Johnson, but that isn't the point.

 

[az_prof]

Bottom line is that you need to do a quality analysis of players ability and how it fits your scoring and starting requirements. Then you need to have some faith. I for one am not going to unload Lee Evans for example, or Shaun Alexander or Donovan McNabb for some lousy rookie draft picks.

No one says you have to unload these players for rookie draft picks. The key is to unoad these players at the right time for value that will be more beneficial to your dynasty team long term, and that could include draft picks and /or players.

If what you are saying is that the secret is unloading players just before they get hurt or turn awful, of course, that's true. But how often will you unload a player like CMart, when he still has years of great production? Or Brett Favre? Or Marvin Harrison? If you have a crystal ball, that always helps. But since we don't have a crystal ball, I think there is some value to keeping studs until they wear out and then drafting someone to replace them. While I have seen people turn teams around with saavy trades, I have also seen people destroy perfectly good, competitive teams with trades they no doubt thought were good, but weren't, often trying to get "younger."

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't really think it's a secret at all, it's just that there is no way to predict and time the moves perfectly all the time.

It's like the stock market, some do it better than others but no one gets it right all the time.

Well, that I can agree with.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

So in my 16 years of playing fantasy football I have come to the conclusion that he who acts the fastest on the waiver wire does better that the gut who is constantly trading.

I agree with your statement "constantly trading", but I disagree with your statement towards trading in general vs the WW. It has been my experience that a great trade will help your team long term more than a WW pickup. There is a reason why players are on the WW most of the time. Yes, you can get a gem or two, but I can do better accumulating gems via the trade than the WW anyday, and I'm usually one of the first for the hot WW pickup. If you are good at trading you can turn a team around a lot faster than waiting on that gem on the WW.

I agree with you on this. In the last few years, I can think of four players with long-term impact who would have been on dynasty waiver wires: Willie Parker, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Antonio Gates. In terms of current value, that's one first rounder, one third rounder and two fourth rounders. I've seen plenty of trades that have provided more long-term impact than even those outstanding waiver wire pickups.

 

[softball]

Johnnu U.

You're an experienced guy and a big football fan.

Really your post boils down to a Bill Parecells Quote:

"As soon as a guy becomes a household name, it's time to find another guy looking to build a house"

 

[DWidmar]

I traded LT this past off season. It might have been a year to early but it would be hard to have higher value than what he had.

Who did you get for LT?

I gave up LosmanLTTO (had low value in my league due to problems)I receivedVick (two weeks before news came out)PortisBettsCaddyRoy Williamsthe way I saw it at that timeVick >>> LosmanRoy Williams > TO (long term Dynasty)LT >>> Portis, Betts, CaddyIt improved my qb's (again, at that time) and got me younger at rb and wr.

 

[AussieOyOyOy]

The rule is that there are no rules. Every player is in a unique circumstance that has never been encountered before. One can and should use trends involving past players in similar circumstances. But, at the end of the day, it's all about what one given player will do in a particular circumstance. Blindly adhering to any rule is a recipe for failure.

 

[Tom Baker]

I traded LT this past off season. It might have been a year to early but it would be hard to have higher value than what he had.

Who did you get for LT?

I gave up LosmanLTTO (had low value in my league due to problems)I receivedVick (two weeks before news came out)PortisBettsCaddyRoy Williamsthe way I saw it at that timeVick >>> LosmanRoy Williams > TO (long term Dynasty)LT >>> Portis, Betts, CaddyIt improved my qb's (again, at that time) and got me younger at rb and wr.

Ouch.

 

[Banger]

Contrary to the premise of this thread, I think one of the secrets of fantasy football is not over valuing "young guys with upside" over veterans who have proven what they can do. It happens every year. First, in dynasty leagues, people over value rookie draft picks. Then during regular drafts people will unload players like Isaac Bruce (still producing) Joey Galloway (still producing) Alexander and Edge (both still producing) for unproven, young players. This mistake is fatal in redraft.In dynasty, it can also be a problem as people who are so impatient may get rid of a player after the blush of rookie "upside" value has worn off, but before the player has produced. I am thinking of players like Meachem for example, this year. Last year I picked up Brandon Marshall and Brandon Jones late in the year in my dynasty after other owners gave up on them.Bottom line is that you need to do a quality analysis of players ability and how it fits your scoring and starting requirements. Then you need to have some faith. I for one am not going to unload Lee Evans for example, or Shaun Alexander or Donovan McNabb for some lousy rookie draft picks.

GREAT post. Everyone likes the new shiny penny. People were saying Harrison was done 2-3 years ago and look at the production he continues to put up.

 

[KoolKat]

Traded Edge away last year for VY and Chester Taylor.

 

[Synthesizer]

The rule is that there are no rules. Every player is in a unique circumstance that has never been encountered before. One can and should use trends involving past players in similar circumstances. But, at the end of the day, it's all about what one given player will do in a particular circumstance. Blindly adhering to any rule is a recipe for failure.

For every stud that drops off the fantasy map quickly (Faulk, Holmes, Warner), there's another one that just keeps producing long after people started predicting their decline (Tomlinson, Curtis Martin, Marvin Harrison). Like my dad taught me, it's better to bet with a streak than against it.

 

[-Crippler-]

Better to trade someone a year too early than a year too late. For the right price you must be willing to trade anybody.

Yep, trading Maurice Jones-Drew pre-2006 would have worked out great. Same goes for Marvin Harrison 5 years ago after a few solid seasons.

 

[TwinTurbo]

It works both ways though. Because the other fantasy mistake that many owners make it to place too much stock in young hyped-up players that haven't done much yet and pass on proven veterans.

Older vets like Jamal Lewis, Randy Moss, and Edge were supposed to be washed up. Take Lawrence Maroney, Reggie Bush, or MJD instead they said.

 

[thecardiackid]

Nice thread guys. I've been playing for a long time, but new to dynasty in the past couple of years. So I appreciate the thoughts/opinions offered about team building strategies.

On one team (in a 25 player startup league), I drafted w/ a focus on youth/opportunity in good offenses vs. the proven vets on new teams (like J Lewis, Edge, Ahman, etc.) and the team was looking great till AJ went down last week - even though I wasn't planning on competing for another year or two. The challenge there is w/ 25+ roster spots - the WW is marginal. I did like the post about the vulture play of grabbing guys like B Marshall later in the year after other owners give up. I'm sure there will be a couple of WRs from this year's class that don't get much action and will be dropped for playoff roster moves.

Another team was adopted and the 'big' moves were to deal Palmer for S. Smith (running w/ Kitna) since the inherited WR core was fugly. This league isn't as deep, so I was able to add some decent depth via the draft including rookies and FA vets. Big move here (in a salary cap league) was letting Maroney go for a 1st round pick next year (transition tag) and acquiring L. Evans (thus far). This squad is a work in progress though.

I should probably be more active (gambling more) on the WW, but I've seen so many owners chasing points / decent games on the wire, only to end up dropping the guy a month later for the next 'flavor of the week'. For every Colston, there's got to be 25 chumps sitting on rosters, taking up space.

Thanks again for sharing thoughts. :carryon:

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Better to trade someone a year too early than a year too late. For the right price you must be willing to trade anybody.

Yep, trading Maurice Jones-Drew pre-2006 would have worked out great. Same goes for Marvin Harrison 5 years ago after a few solid seasons.

Depends on who you get but there's the flipside to that argument. How about Marshall Faulk,Terrell Davis, Ricky Williams, Jamal Anderson, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, and Curtis Martin? You seem like the kind of person who would have held onto them way too long only to get burned in the process.

 

[fsufan]

Well, I think this is probably the 2nd most important thing for dynasty leagues. More important than your ability to draft, and only 2nd in your ability to trade. I think I listed this in the 7 step program much lower, but I'm not so sure I should have.

I think trading is the most important thing in a dynasty leagues, even more important than drafting rookie. especially targeting undervalued RBs(portis this year).in my main dynasty league I have traded for the following players over the past 3 or 4 year

palmer

james

portis

rivers

romo

driver

t. henry

burress

10 of my 22 player roster i acquired by trade