Fantasy Football's biggest secret, yet most fail (1 Viewer)

[fsufan]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason.

He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

Sure, maybe he does, but the point of this thread is to get rid of these guys before they turn into mush. Trade them while their value is high, but don't have much left in the tank. I feel SA and Edge fall into this category. Yes, both could be productive for 2 or 3 years, but doesn't it make since to get the most for them now before they start to decline even more?

i think it depend on the dynasty team. If he has a good core around SA, then why trade him if his team is competitive? If his team is not good than I can see moving SA for youth and rookie picks. I think trading a player depends on the make up of the team.

 

[Tanner9919]

When do studs no longer become studs, and do you connect on that in time to reap the rewards? Did you get rid of Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Jerome Bettis, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Jerry Rice, Robert Smith, Eddie George, Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, and countless others at the time when their value was at it's highest, or did you hang on too long and get little to nothing? Of course injury does play a major part in this, but so does decline in productivity that people just don't seem to pay enough attention to. Also, change of situation plays a role.Well, I think this is probably the 2nd most important thing for dynasty leagues. More important than your ability to draft, and only 2nd in your ability to trade. I think I listed this in the 7 step program much lower, but I'm not so sure I should have.So, the next thing will be, when do I trade LT2?. Some close to that time right now might be Shaun Alexander and Edge. This seems to apply to RBs the most, with WRs second, and QBs third. Obviously RBs NFL life is short compared to QBs and WRs. Maybe McNabb belongs in this group?Edited to say that the only reason I mentioned Robert Smith is because one could have known he was going to retire. One smart dude that had other options.

about Tomlinson:you probably should have seen the writing on the wall with this guy. Rarely do RB's with historically great seasons ,like LT2 in 2006, repeat the following year..it almost never happens. Its tough to trade a guy like that away.By no means am I saying he's 'finished', but if you were going to trade him,you probably should have done so in preseason to maximize return on investment.at this point , you'd look like someone who is selling off a guy that isn't producing..you should probably wait until he 'goes off' in a game where he rushes for 150 and 2tds, before you try to trade him. You might get that to happen this weekend, who knows..the new rule of fantasy football should be, never go against historical trends. that means LJ won't come near his totals from 2006 ( most carries per season), and neither will LT2( most TD's ever )..so far, those trends are working perfectly well..the NFL hasn't been kind to big RB's, and Brandon Jacobs is no exception.getting hurt,is part of the 'curse' , if you will..I doubt he develops into the RB many view him as..granted,its ONLY week 2. I'm not trying to bury these players, just saying there are some things to worry about..the other trend is, Norv Turner is a lousy head coach..

 

[JohnnyU]

Johnnu U.You're an experienced guy and a big football fan.Really your post boils down to a Bill Parecells Quote:"As soon as a guy becomes a household name, it's time to find another guy looking to build a house"

I love this post even though I disagree with it. Getting rid of someone as soon as they become a household name might be a tad too soon.

 

[revsonny]

If you can't see retirement in his eyes, then I don't know what to say.

Like you, I'm also a Colts fan (living in the Indianapolis 'burbs). I don't see anything in his eyes that has changed over the years. People keep underestimating Marvin, and he keeps proving them wrong...

 

[-OZ-]

Personally I think Shaun Alexander still has another good season in him. He's been hampered by a sprained wrist but I believe once thats healed up he'll be a top 5 back this year.... I think I'll trade him either late in the season or in the offseason.

He's still got a good line in front of him, A very good veteran qb, decent receivers, and a good system thats been in place for years. Talent wise, he's lost a half step but he's still better than most backs in the league.

Sure, maybe he does, but the point of this thread is to get rid of these guys before they turn into mush. Trade them while their value is high, but don't have much left in the tank. I feel SA and Edge fall into this category. Yes, both could be productive for 2 or 3 years, but doesn't it make since to get the most for them now before they start to decline even more?

i think it depend on the dynasty team. If he has a good core around SA, then why trade him if his team is competitive? If his team is not good than I can see moving SA for youth and rookie picks. I think trading a player depends on the make up of the team.

If you're looking at a championship with a well-rounded team, you probably can't trade LT or SA.

If you're a bottom dweller, rebuilding, why not trade him?

If you're competitive, but have holes, you can trade him if you get value.

Like everything, it boils down to: team before trade vs. team after trade and how each is serving your goals. My goal is to win the championship this year, others may aim to be competitive every year.

 

[Biabreakable]

LT has been discussed over this offseason and if you were able to get a blockbuster for him then great but he still offers the highest potential to be the top scoring player and to be worth so much as he performs like 2 player slots much of the time. And I expect that to be the case again this year. Thats the upside with him. The downside is one of the most solid and reliable players you can have on your team.

While I agree that selling him last offseason was his highest point of value (more than likely) I do not see him as being done by any means. And so from that perspective trading him would be too soon. Of course it depends on what you could get for him. Even though I considered him basicly untradable because of the advantage he gives my team I still explored it with a couple of the heavy hitter teams that had enough talent to ante up for him. They were not willing to pay the price I would require prefering instead to take thier chances with LT making my team unbeatable. I understand thier position, its choosing your poision and also keeping thier focus on thier own teams and what is the best overall team they can put forth. Spending so much for LT did not meet that objective for them.

Moss is a good example of a player that people may have given up on but is now resurgent. Situation + talent is near impossible to predict. When those stars cross you have somthing special that leads to championships.

A flip side of this is McNabb pre TO. He was good then but mainly because of his numbers being augmented by his rushing. I traded him away pre TO and then that turned out to be a mistake as he was a monster with TO. Now this did not last... but it could have. McNabb seems less valuable than pre TO in my eyes now because he no longer is willing and able to run like he once did pre TO.

So these things go in phases. While I look 3 years out I always keep in mind the current season as priority and what I expect a players real and percieved value being the following year. I can always move a player if I do not like the direction I see the player going.

So trading McNabb pre TO was a bad move and could have been worse than it was if TO had stayed with him. Trading away McNabb pre TO meltdown would have been a good move. I have seen the decline in rushing yards and McNabb does still have accuracy issues (that seemed to disapear while TO was a target for him and the effect that had on the rest of the offense). Westbrook and the high pass attempts really help McNabb but the decline in rushing is clear. Now without reliable big play target he is struggling again (Stallworth made a big difference for him last year imo).

Stallworth is another example to consider. He has been a sell high at different points of his career. He continues to be inconsistent. Selling him at any of those high points would have been a good move as I think he has burned owners who start him as often if not more than he has helped them.