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FANTASY TID-BITS (1 Viewer)

BustedKnuckles

Footballguy
RE-POSTED FROM DAVE RICHARDS' COLUMN ON CBS SPORTSLINE:

http://www.football.sportsline.com/news/10343718

Running back tandems: Bad in the preseason, better once the season starts -- if you picked the right guy.

It's been one whole week, but it's not too early to judge. Outside of New Orleans' backfield twosome, let's take a look at the RB tandems we've watched to see if they are still in fact tandems.

Minnesota: If you deftly chose Adrian Peterson over Chester Taylor, I'd say you're in pretty good shape right now. Taylor started and worked the first series before Peterson took over the second. While taking a breather, Peterson saw Taylor leave the game with a hip injury. Playing Lou Gehrig to his Wally Pipp (do people even get that reference anymore?), Peterson took over and didn't let up. He had 19 carries in the game -- seven went for under four yards after Taylor's injury, and one of his receptions wound up being a screen pass that saw him burst through the Falcons defense for 60 yards for a touchdown. The Vikings cannot ignore that; Peterson has to be their primary back now (and will be if Taylor misses significant playing time).

Tennessee: I feel bad for anyone who took LenDale White over Chris Brown, but it made sense no less than a week ago. White was given a ton of chances at Jacksonville to rumble over the Jaguars, or to score from inside the red zone. He didn't succeed, averaging 3.67 yards per rush on 18 carries (that's 66 rush yards for you math majors out there). Brown did slightly better: he had 175 rush yards on 19 carries -- one more than White. The difference? White is a power back who doesn't play like one; Brown is faster and more versatile. With what will probably be a loss next week at Indy, neither running back is worth starting for Fantasy play, but you can expect Brown to see a few more reps and White a few less.

Carolina: The Panthers clearly are going with DeShaun Foster until he falls apart. I don't know why, but they are. Roughly a year ago they spent a first-round pick on DeAngelo Williams, who was a terrific collegiate rusher, and they're holding him back. Williams didn't get a carry until the second quarter, and it was for minus yardage. Williams wouldn't have even had 15 carries if not for the Panthers grinding the clock down in the first half. Sadly, Foster is the man here. Maybe we'll look into why that is in the coming weeks.

Clinton Portis looked surprisingly spry in Washington's Week 1 victory. (AP)

Washington: Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts were split right down the middle with 17 carries each. But Portis did a lot more with those reps than Betts. He had 98 yards and a touchdown while Betts had 59 yards on the ground and a 16-yard catch. They both saw reps inside Miami's 10 in Week 1. Betts had just six carries in the first half. Obviously, Portis is the better Fantasy running back so long as he gets the job done; Betts probably won't see as many touches in games the Redskins are forced to throw.

Jacksonville: Throw this one out. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor totaled 13 carries. I have no idea what the Jaguars are thinking not using these guys more. Who are they going to lean on, Dennis Northcutt? C'mon, the Jags are who we think they are: A running team with a great defense. Footnote: Taylor had 16 yards on six carries and a long run of 17 yards. That means he was in neutral for most of the day. That's not good.

Dallas: Nothing has changed: Julius Jones is the hard working bell cow while Marion Barber gets the touchdowns. And frankly, Barber had just four fewer touches than Jones and still outproduced him. So far, Barber is the much more reliable Dallas Fantasy runner.

Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch vs. Anthony Thomas. Was there really any doubt? The second RB picked in the 2007 Draft, heralded to be the most versatile, against a veteran who hasn't averaged four yards per carry or rushed for even 500 yards over the course of a season since 2003. This was a non-issue, and Lynch put it to bed with his solid outing vs. Denver.

Miami: Ronnie Brown had 11 carries and six catches, Jesse Chatman had seven carries and six catches. Combined, they totaled 47 rushing yards and 88 receiving yards. Why do I have the feeling this tandem will give us fits all season long? Brown still seems like the better back, but I'd get Chatman off the waiver wire if I were you because it doesn't look like he's going away.

Atlanta: Warrick Dunn: 2.5 yards per carry on 22 touches. Jerious Norwood: 6.6 yards per carry, but on just five touches. Six of Dunn's carries went for more than four yards. If you own Dunn you're on thin ice, and if you own Norwood, stick it out. Of course, considering Atlanta's passing offense, you're probably in a hole either way.

Detroit: The Lions scared us with talk that Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett were going to split. Didn't happen: Bell had 19 touches, Duckett had three. Bell's Fantasy owners are in the clear ... until Kevin Jones returns to active duty.

Green Bay: Rookie Brandon Jackson has the job for now in Green Bay, but 40 yards on 15 carries, even against a good Eagles defense, keeps the door open for Vernand Morency when he's healthy. The 35 receiving yards on four catches helped his cause.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: Randy Moss is old news. We knew Moss would fall in somewhere between Randy Moss Circa 2003 and Randy Moss Circa 2006. We didn't think he had a nine-catch, 183-yard game left in him. The last two times Moss started the season with over 100 receiving yards and a TD, he went on to have at least 1,000 yards and at least eight TDs. More on Moss in a bit.

Reality: The Rams aren't the same without Orlando Pace. After Pace left in Week 1, the Rams had five straight drives go no longer than four plays. Marc Bulger threw 13 of his 20 incompletions and Steven Jackson rushed for just 17 yards after Pace was out (Jackson also ran to his right more often and fumbled twice on that side of the field). Without Pace last season, the Rams went 5-3 and Bulger had 2,114 passing yards, 14 TDs and six interceptions over that span. Not bad by any means, but that was with veteran Todd Steussie in at left tackle. Steussie, a long-time NFL vet, is out for the 2007 season already. This time, Pace was replaced by Adam Goldberg, who basically entered camp as a third-string lineman. Cross your fingers that Pace is OK, but initial reports suggest otherwise, and that's bad news for the Rams.

Fantasy: Larry Johnson's holdout and supporting cast won't hold him back. Don't say we didn't warn you. Johnson totaled 17 touches at Houston, and while he did average over 5.0 yards per touch, the Texans forced the Chiefs to abandon him. That, combined with coach Herm Edwards sticking to his guns about not running LJ much left him in the lurch. Next week's opponent? Chicago, who held LaDainian Tomlinson to 25 rush yards. Good luck, LJ.

Reality: You don't need to run away from the Raiders offense anymore. Although I'd like to see them play against a better defense (that wish will come true next week), the initial analysis of Oakland's offense is positive. Josh McCown completed 30-of-40 passes and made Ronald Curry look like vintage Tim Brown. And don't sleep on LaMont Jordan, who averaged 4.67 yards per carry on 15 tries and caught nine passes for 89 yards. McCown will be a hot waiver-wire pickup this week.

Fantasy: New Orleans' offense in 2006 was an aberration. Forget what you saw from the Saints at Indy; the Colts were charged up and took a very passive defensive approach. Most other teams who try to do what the Colts did will get burned, and the Saints didn't get much luck picking up turnovers from the Colts. Expect Sean Payton to rally his troops, and expect Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, etc., to be up to snuff in Week 2 at Tampa Bay.

Reality: Antwaan Randle El and Drew Carter are still not worth starting in Fantasy play. Both of these receivers have shown glimpses of breaking out in the past, and I consider what they did in Week 1 just more flashes. Neither receiver has been consistent over his career and shouldn't start in most leagues. However, if I had one waiver-wire pick to use, I'd use it on Randle El, who can pad his stats with occasional rushing and passing totals and doesn't have a popular rookie looking over his shoulder (Carter will eventually have to fend off Dwayne Jarrett).

Strategy Session

Is now the right time to trade Randy Moss?

Let's all agree on something: Despite the Jets pass defense leaving much to be desired, Moss' Week 1 dominance was a surprise. We expected around 80 yards and a touchdown, and we don't think that was a stretch by any means.

That said, Moss' Fantasy value hasn't been as high as it is right this second since the start of the 2004 season. And that's why, if you own him, you should entertain trade offers despite the Fantasy season being a week old.

Some facts: Moss is 30 years old. Moss has played one full season in the last three years. Moss doesn't have the healthiest hamstrings in the world.

More facts: The Patriots have never been the type of team to have a receiver dominate the stat page (last 1,000-yard receiver was in 2001). The Patriots are known for spreading the ball around. They change their offensive gameplan from week to week, focusing to their opponents' weaknesses.

Knowing all of this, is Moss a lock to put up 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns? Hardly.

I don't think every single one of Moss' owners should dump him. I think if you're in a league where you snagged Moss with a pick after Round 5 and feel like you could use an upgrade at running back, your time to make a move has arrived. Maybe packaging Moss with a good running back for a stud workhorse like Frank Gore or Joseph Addai is your best move. And, if you're in the market for a wide receiver and have a running back to spare, Moss isn't a bad get right now.

Can the same thing be said about Plaxico Burress?

Following his three-TD night at Dallas, Plaxico Burress' stock is also high. But I think owners who were dead-set on trading Moss would get more for him than owners who want to trade Burress. Crazy, huh? Burress has missed one game in his last two seasons and has 20 TDs and over 2,200 yards in his last 31 games, yet Moss will get you more in a deal.

An astute Fantasy owner should note this, and if they need a receiver, see what they have to give up for Plax. I would imagine that a solid No. 2 Fantasy RB would get it done. If Eli Manning is OK and the Giants lose Brandon Jacobs for an extended period of time, Burress could see his best stats yet.

Is Ben Roethlisberger a must-start Fantasy QB?

Don't get excited by his four-TD game at Cleveland. Instead, focus on quarterbacks who will play the Browns. For instance, Steve McNair plays the Browns in Weeks 4 and 11 -- he should do very well in both of those games. In two weeks, Josh McCown targets the Brownies and Trent Green gets them in Week 6. Do yourself a favor -- see when your starting QB is on bye, and check out who the Browns play that week. Then get that guy to be your bye-week QB. The Browns' pass defense is hideous.

As for Roethlisberger, his touchdowns were nice, but this was his first-career four-TD game. And, he did it throwing for just 161 yards. He remains a usable Fantasy QB when the matchup is right (as evidenced by his Week 1 play). His Week 2 game vs. Buffalo should be fine, as should his next four games (Buffalo, vs. San Francisco, at Arizona, vs. Seattle). After that, dates with Denver and two with Baltimore loom. The time to pawn him off might be after Week 5.

Surprise, surprise!

I was surprised by: Buffalo's effective running game, and all the credit goes to Lynch (90 yards and a TD on 19 carries). He was very physical and showed burst along the way. He's going to be a good one. ... Jon Kitna's terrific game against the Raiders. Obviously, when you chuck the ball a lot, you're going to get picked off, but I was surprised to see him connect for three touchdowns. His 289 passing yards were also more than expected. ... I figured Rex Grossman would be shaky at San Diego, but Cedric Benson averaging 2.2 yards per carry with a fumble? If he can't get going, the Bears will be in very big trouble even with a terrific defense. ... Ronald Curry is the real deal so long as he doesn't get hurt. Go get that waiver claim in.

I was not surprised by: Vince Young's poor stats against the Jags. Jacksonville has the blueprint on how to limit V.Y.'s effectiveness. Too bad not many teams in the NFL have Jacksonville's defensive fundamentals. ... Green Bay's defense holding the Eagles to 13 points. This was a team I targeted to have a great defense, and they held up and pestered Donovan McNabb. They're going to battle for a playoff spot. ... Atlanta's anemic offense and defense. No explanation necessary. ... Houston's intelligent offense. Ball-control, high-percentage passing and a decent run defense can work wonders. Big test for them next week at Carolina.

Parting Shots

• It was a good week for owners who disregarded quarterbacks early in their drafts. Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Tony Romo -- three guys that didn't sniff the first six rounds of any draft -- all put up nice numbers. Drew Brees, Marc Bulger and Vince Young couldn't do the same.

• Sit tight if Maurice Jones-Drew is one of your starting RBs. The Jaguars need to come to grips with their offense. He's going to be OK. Same thing with Laurence Maroney. I don't know if I can say the same for Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown, though.

• Speaking of Brown, I'm not sure if he's the problem or if Miami's offensive philosophy is the problem. Brown has proven that he can be a lead NFL running back. So why is he sharing with, of all people, Jesse Chatman? Brown would have been a complete Week 1 failure if not for his receiving totals. I don't like his prospects for Week 2 when Dallas comes to Miami. Once the 'Boys build a lead, Brown's reps will shrink.

• There were way too many injuries in Week 1, and if many of them are serious, it will reshape several divisions. Chad Pennington's ankle looked bad; Josh McCown has a sprained finger; Orlando Pace is a load-bearing player on the Rams; Cadillac Williams and Jeff Garcia of the Bucs got nicked up in Seattle; and the Giants will be atrocious if Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs are lost for any extended period of time. Ever hear of "Survival of the fittest?" That question could help determine the Super Bowl champion.

• But no injury was bigger than Kevin Everett's. Everett had cervical spine surgery Sunday night after a brutal collision in Week 1 with Broncos WR Domenik Hixon. He is currently in intensive care, and his status is still up in the air. His football playing career is the least important thing right now.

Everett has been a sleeper TE I've kept in my head his entire career after making several acrobatic catches at the University of Miami. I thought for sure that he would become a red-zone threat for the Bills, but his career has been trashed by injuries, including a torn ACL in his first minicamp practice as a rookie.

If you haven't already, please keep Everett in your thoughts.

:lol:

 
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Thanks for taking the time to write that up. :lmao:Question...

Tennessee: I feel bad for anyone who took LenDale White over Chris Brown, but it made sense no less than a week ago. White was given a ton of chances at Jacksonville to rumble over the Jaguars, or to score from inside the red zone. He didn't succeed, averaging 3.67 yards per rush on 18 carries (that's 66 rush yards for you math majors out there). Brown did slightly better: he had 175 rush yards on 19 carries -- one more than White. The difference? White is a power back who doesn't play like one; Brown is faster and more versatile. With what will probably be a loss next week at Indy, neither running back is worth starting for Fantasy play, but you can expect Brown to see a few more reps and White a few less.
They just ran all over what was thought to be one of the best rush D's in the league. The Titans will run the ball a TON this year. I think that either or both of these guys are worth starting this week.
 
I'm going to assume it wasn't your intent BustedKnuckles, but posting proprietary content from one of our competitors without crediting the author/source is a huge no-no.

 
I'm going to assume it wasn't your intent BustedKnuckles, but posting proprietary content from one of our competitors without crediting the author/source is a huge no-no.
Sorry...i usually post the linkBesides i`m not that smart to write that post :goodposting:
 
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