I think Brett Favre is the perfect storm this week. It's not just that Green Bay's passing matchup is a good one (although it is- Green Bay is #2 in the league in passing, and Minnesota is #32)... but it's also that Green Bay's rushing matchup is so unbelievably putrid (Green Bay is 32nd in the league in rushing, and Minnesota is 2nd, giving up 2.83 yards per attempt

). If Green Bay wants to win this week, Brett Favre will *HAVE* to pass. I would be more surprised if Favre had fewer than 40 attempts than I would be if he had 50+.If you buy into Football Outsiders, then Minnesota is 20th in the league against the pass and 2nd against the run... but that's a little misleading. They might just be 2nd against the run, but that's because Baltimore is also historically great. Minnesota's rushing defense is -32.2%. Since 2000, the only other teams that had less than -30% DVOA against the run were Baltimore this year, Minnesota last year, and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans (two of the greatest defenses in NFL history). Suffice it to say that Minnesota's rushing defense is very, very, very, very ridiculously good. Mindblowingly good. Once-in-a-decade good.Roethlisberger is a very interesting comparison, in my opinion. He's facing a far more putrid pass defense than Favre, and he's been scoring very comparably to Favre so far this season... but Cleveland's run defense is almost as bad as its pass defense. I think it's very likely that Roethlisberger scores significantly more fantasy points per attempt, but Favre still outscores him through sheer number of attempts. I'm even putting my money where my mouth is here- I have both Roeth and Favre in one league, and after debating it back and forth with myself for a couple of hours, I've slotted Favre as the starter. Hopefully it doesn't come back to bite me, but I'm happy with the decision that I've made based on the information that is available.