FBG Dodds Weekly Projections vs. actual performance (1 Viewer)

[Happy]

First off, I really appreciate all the hard work done by Dodds and the rest of the team at Footballguys to put together detailed player projections on a weekly basis. Thank you!

As with any sport, the expectations of a team's / player's performance will vary from the actual results on the field. I was wondering if there were an analysis done of the actual performance by player had been done vs. the projections put together by Dodds.

Here's the stats for CIN players from this week's Thursday game

Projected Week 13 CIN (vs BAL)

===============

Carson Palmer 19/31 245 yds 1.4 TD

Rudi Johnson 21/85 yds 1/6 yds 0.8 TD

Chad Johnson 6/85 yds 0.6 TD

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 5/78 yds 0.5 TD

Actual Week 13

=============

Carson Palmer 21/32 234 yds 1 TD

Rudi Johnson 16/47 yds 2/17 yds 0 TD

Chad Johnson 8/91 yds 0 TD

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 10/106 yds 1 TD

A few of the numbers look right in line, with Rudi not doing as well as expected and T.J. Housh doing better than expected. Palmer's numbers are right on target.

I'm wondering over the course of the season how well the projections match against actual results, with the normal expected deviations week to week, evening out over the course of the year. One would expect with an analysis during the season that projections would get more accurate week to week by doing this type of historical analysis.

 

[bjabrad]

I understand where you're coming from. Us fantasy football players want every edge possible to the extent that we're willing to pay somebody else to supplement our research and taking it another step farther and since there are multiple projections and cheatsheets out there has anybody tracked the various cheatsheets against each other to see if anybody has a bigger edge or better intel or better feel than anybody else would be a natural extension of our addiction.

I haven't seen anything like this but I have seen cheatsheets that have averaged results from various cheatsheet sources (FGBs not included). I compare the averaged cheatsheets vs FBG's from time to time and truthfully they are very similar most of the time because everybody has the same info but I do weight FBG's info with a higher degree of confidence because it has typically worked out very well for me. If anybody wants to go out there and chart cheatsheet performance then let me know because I would find it very interesting. In the meantime, I'm happy to have what I get from the pay site and from the Shark Pool which I consider one of the finest resources in fantasy football.

 

[MLBrandow]

I'm wondering over the course of the season how well the projections match against actual results, with the normal expected deviations week to week, evening out over the course of the year. One would expect with an analysis during the season that projections would get more accurate week to week by doing this type of historical analysis.

Let me first say this: I doubt it's very accurate at all.Now, let me say this: I bet it's a lot more accurate than any other projections sheet around, making it dead-on by comparison.Such is the crux of fantasy football prognostication though.I'm sure if you dig around the forums you can find a few bits of statistical analysis.

 

[Mootej]

Lineup Dominator now posts actuals for prior weeks. Couple that with the final projections from each week...

Haven't done it. Too busy managing my three first place teams having used Dodd's projections.

 

[barndog]

In one league where the result stats include a calculation of how often you choose the highest scoring players (and hence, lineup) my average is 92 or 93%. FBGs cheatsheets are a major, but not sole factor in determining who I start. In addition, the number of games I could've won but didn't (because points were left on the bench) is only 2, indicating that I'm pretty much maximizing my team's potential.

One guy in the league is at 81% and would've won five more games had he chosen better. I'd bet anything he's not using FBGs or anything like it.

The real test, as alluded to above, is whether your team makes the playoffs and is competitive in them. I'm very happy with my results two years into my subscription.

 

[Summer Wheat]

First off, I really appreciate all the hard work done by Dodds and the rest of the team at Footballguys to put together detailed player projections on a weekly basis. Thank you!As with any sport, the expectations of a team's / player's performance will vary from the actual results on the field. I was wondering if there were an analysis done of the actual performance by player had been done vs. the projections put together by Dodds.Here's the stats for CIN players from this week's Thursday gameProjected Week 13 CIN (vs BAL)===============Carson Palmer 19/31 245 yds 1.4 TD Rudi Johnson 21/85 yds 1/6 yds 0.8 TDChad Johnson 6/85 yds 0.6 TDT.J. Houshmandzadeh 5/78 yds 0.5 TDActual Week 13 =============Carson Palmer 21/32 234 yds 1 TD Rudi Johnson 16/47 yds 2/17 yds 0 TDChad Johnson 8/91 yds 0 TDT.J. Houshmandzadeh 10/106 yds 1 TDA few of the numbers look right in line, with Rudi not doing as well as expected and T.J. Housh doing better than expected. Palmer's numbers are right on target. I'm wondering over the course of the season how well the projections match against actual results, with the normal expected deviations week to week, evening out over the course of the year. One would expect with an analysis during the season that projections would get more accurate week to week by doing this type of historical analysis.

How do you score 0.8 TDs??

 

[barndog]

How do you score 0.8 TDs??

Well, two ways.1. 0.8 * 6 = pts expected on TDs ON AVERAGE this weekor2. 0.8 = probability of scoring a TD this week.

 

[The Man With No Name]

In one league where the result stats include a calculation of how often you choose the highest scoring players (and hence, lineup) my average is 92 or 93%. FBGs cheatsheets are a major, but not sole factor in determining who I start. In addition, the number of games I could've won but didn't (because points were left on the bench) is only 2, indicating that I'm pretty much maximizing my team's potential.

One guy in the league is at 81% and would've won five more games had he chosen better. I'd bet anything he's not using FBGs or anything like it.

The real test, as alluded to above, is whether your team makes the playoffs and is competitive in them. I'm very happy with my results two years into my subscription.

I use the LD in one league and am at 78.7%, but am 7-5. 14 team league where the only ones lower than me are at 78.4% and 78.2%. I have changed 1-2 players some weeks and have been 86.6% and 90.1% the last two weeks, raising my percentage. (IDP league)It can't be easy projecting so many players stats week after week after week.

 

[Happy]

It would be very straitforward to post the actual statistics side by side the projections on the FBG site. There's so much time and effort put into the Projections and CheatSheets and Custom Cheatsheets that it would be useful for FBG to show how accurate their projections are if they are truly accurate over the long haul. Provided they were within a certain margin of error, it would be a fantastic marketing tool to promote the site (we have the best weekly projections), backed by actual data.

The feature I'd like to see would be a column on Mondays showing the same stats in the Projections or in the Cheatsheets with Actual points vs. Projected Points and the % difference. Ideally, this would be done for both Weekly projections on the week by week data as well as for the yearly projections done prior to the draft to show how accurate each person's projections were over the course of the season.

As for the Lineup Dominator showing the actual statistics, it still doesn't help me. You can only see actual, and not projected. What I'm asking for is side by side Projected vs. Actual and % difference.