Bob Henry
Footballguy
Update..
With my latest drop of projections, I've made a couple tweaks that I wanted to comment on in the thread. While there hasn't been much discussion of late, don't hesitate to ask any questions here and give me some feedback. We all benefit from these discussions and I know that I find them valuable. So, thanks to all who have contributed to this thread so far.
Tweaks:
UP - Troy Smith. I've been fighting the urge since my initial projections after the draft to put him in the QB1 slot. It's not hard to understand why either. I've never been sold on Boller or high on his fantasy potential, despite the fact that he's had a few years to get some seasoning behind McNair. Fact is, I just don't think he's very good. Flacco is a 1st round investment and will figure into the race down the road, perhaps this year, but maybe not depending on how well Smith/Boller perform. Recently, Smith has impressed his coaches and front office by "making leaps and bounds" in his progress from his rookie season. Smith played fairly well in his late season opportunity despite being on an underperforming offensive team and being a rookie. He's not likely to be a top 15 or 20 QB this year, but he could be a deep sleeper worth a flyer as a very late pick in your upcoming redraft leagues.
Titans WRs - Biren Ealy and Paul Williams are beginning to make strides in the off-season. Ealy, in particular, has taken advantage of the injury to Roydell Williams to impress his new coaches. Williams has yet to begin running following a late-season broken ankle. He needs to get healthy before he can even get back onto the field, much less the starting lineup. As it stands now, Justin McCareins is in-line to start opposite Justin Gage. Do I think that is the Titans starting lineup come September? Possible, but kinda doubtful IMO. Williams may or may not be in the mix depending on his health and ability to play through pain. Brandon Jones is a wildcard. He, too, has been usurpt by injuries and unfulfilled potential thus far (not to mention being a knucklehead taking a gun through the airport.. maybe he was looking for Barry Switzer?). All in all, I've bumped McCareins a bit, Ealy a bit more, and adjusted Roydell down a bit. Lavelle Hawkins could also work his way into the mix as a rookie. I've also added a few more receptions to Alge Crumpler. If healthy, he could be their "go to" receiver.
Jake Delhomme - Count me on the optimistic side. I like Jake and thought he was off to a potentially very nice season last year before the whole elbow thing blew up. He's got more help this year, potentially a more balanced running attack and I've given him a small bump mostly in the # of pass attempts which more yards, etc.
Derek Anderson - After much thought, I've increased Anderson's pass attempts slightly. I'm still mixed on him but on a PPG basis he and Aaron Rodgers are two QBs who I will be targeting for QB2 duties on my teams. Delhomme, too.
Houston RBs - Not a big change, I just mapped out a 16 game schedule and my rough estimation of who will start what games and how many touches each back is likely to get throughout the season to see if the numbers I come up with are reflective of my projections. They weren't far off, but tweaks were made. In a nutshell, I don't believe Ahman will stay healthy. I don't believe Brown will be the bell cow if/when Green goes down for long, though he's likely to log more touches over the season. Depending on how the Texans season goes, the last month or two could involve getting Slaton, Walker and/or Taylor a lot of touches to build for the next season. If they make further progress, my projections will be far off and Brown/Green could defy the odds and have stronger seasons than I project. If you sort my projections by team and on a PPG basis, you can tell that I believe in the Texans running game. By that I mean they can have a productive fantasy back if they don't evolve into a 3-way committee. I don't think it will on a game by game basis. That means who ever does start is likely to put up ok/decent stats week to week. Good luck picking that horse.
Jets WRs - slight tweak. Down Brad Smith, up Chansi Stuckey. What have you done for me lately .. Smith isn't healthy yet and Stuckey has been looking good in the offseason and could supplant Smith as the WR3. Stay tuned there.
Javon Walker - what the..... Who knows what is going on with this cat. All I know is that I'm losing confidence and patience in his ability to get it all turned around and back on track by the day. I'm dubious. Slight bump for Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Eagles - changed Kris Wilson from RB to TE. Kevin Kolb tweaks made, but subtle..
Steelers - gave a few more touches to Mewelde Moore at Mendenhall's expense (mostly catches). Moore will have a role if he makes the roster and it will almost certainly involve special teams and 3rd down duties.
Seahawks - a few more carries to Justin Forsett. Very minor tweak, but of all the late round rookies, Forsett is one that intrigues me. First, he's on a team where I feel that despite the signing of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett and the return of Maurice Morris, there is still some question about having a featured back. I could foresee a scenario where either via injury or disappointment, Forsett ends up getting some PT and surprising folks with his ability to make plays. Call it the Dominick Davis scenario. It's a long shot, but of the late round rookies, he's a guy with some upside - especially on an offense like this.
Bulger - increased his pass attempts (and thus how many games I think he's likely to start and play). Now, the problem I have with my current Rams projections is Trent Green with 100 pass attempts. In the event that Bulger goes down (again) I really don't think Green would last long enough to have 100 pass attempts. Here is a guy that should listen to that little guy on his shoulder telling him to retire. Seriously, I worry about his long-term health.
Antonio Bryant - If he makes the team, he'll probably be somewhere between WR2 and WR3 on this team. He's probably better than Ike Hilliard at this point, but he needs to stay clean and out of the police blotter, then we'll see if he can put some numbers in the stat sheets. Right now, he's 3rd going by projections.
That's all for now....
With my latest drop of projections, I've made a couple tweaks that I wanted to comment on in the thread. While there hasn't been much discussion of late, don't hesitate to ask any questions here and give me some feedback. We all benefit from these discussions and I know that I find them valuable. So, thanks to all who have contributed to this thread so far.
Tweaks:
UP - Troy Smith. I've been fighting the urge since my initial projections after the draft to put him in the QB1 slot. It's not hard to understand why either. I've never been sold on Boller or high on his fantasy potential, despite the fact that he's had a few years to get some seasoning behind McNair. Fact is, I just don't think he's very good. Flacco is a 1st round investment and will figure into the race down the road, perhaps this year, but maybe not depending on how well Smith/Boller perform. Recently, Smith has impressed his coaches and front office by "making leaps and bounds" in his progress from his rookie season. Smith played fairly well in his late season opportunity despite being on an underperforming offensive team and being a rookie. He's not likely to be a top 15 or 20 QB this year, but he could be a deep sleeper worth a flyer as a very late pick in your upcoming redraft leagues.
Titans WRs - Biren Ealy and Paul Williams are beginning to make strides in the off-season. Ealy, in particular, has taken advantage of the injury to Roydell Williams to impress his new coaches. Williams has yet to begin running following a late-season broken ankle. He needs to get healthy before he can even get back onto the field, much less the starting lineup. As it stands now, Justin McCareins is in-line to start opposite Justin Gage. Do I think that is the Titans starting lineup come September? Possible, but kinda doubtful IMO. Williams may or may not be in the mix depending on his health and ability to play through pain. Brandon Jones is a wildcard. He, too, has been usurpt by injuries and unfulfilled potential thus far (not to mention being a knucklehead taking a gun through the airport.. maybe he was looking for Barry Switzer?). All in all, I've bumped McCareins a bit, Ealy a bit more, and adjusted Roydell down a bit. Lavelle Hawkins could also work his way into the mix as a rookie. I've also added a few more receptions to Alge Crumpler. If healthy, he could be their "go to" receiver.
Jake Delhomme - Count me on the optimistic side. I like Jake and thought he was off to a potentially very nice season last year before the whole elbow thing blew up. He's got more help this year, potentially a more balanced running attack and I've given him a small bump mostly in the # of pass attempts which more yards, etc.
Derek Anderson - After much thought, I've increased Anderson's pass attempts slightly. I'm still mixed on him but on a PPG basis he and Aaron Rodgers are two QBs who I will be targeting for QB2 duties on my teams. Delhomme, too.
Houston RBs - Not a big change, I just mapped out a 16 game schedule and my rough estimation of who will start what games and how many touches each back is likely to get throughout the season to see if the numbers I come up with are reflective of my projections. They weren't far off, but tweaks were made. In a nutshell, I don't believe Ahman will stay healthy. I don't believe Brown will be the bell cow if/when Green goes down for long, though he's likely to log more touches over the season. Depending on how the Texans season goes, the last month or two could involve getting Slaton, Walker and/or Taylor a lot of touches to build for the next season. If they make further progress, my projections will be far off and Brown/Green could defy the odds and have stronger seasons than I project. If you sort my projections by team and on a PPG basis, you can tell that I believe in the Texans running game. By that I mean they can have a productive fantasy back if they don't evolve into a 3-way committee. I don't think it will on a game by game basis. That means who ever does start is likely to put up ok/decent stats week to week. Good luck picking that horse.
Jets WRs - slight tweak. Down Brad Smith, up Chansi Stuckey. What have you done for me lately .. Smith isn't healthy yet and Stuckey has been looking good in the offseason and could supplant Smith as the WR3. Stay tuned there.
Javon Walker - what the..... Who knows what is going on with this cat. All I know is that I'm losing confidence and patience in his ability to get it all turned around and back on track by the day. I'm dubious. Slight bump for Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Eagles - changed Kris Wilson from RB to TE. Kevin Kolb tweaks made, but subtle..
Steelers - gave a few more touches to Mewelde Moore at Mendenhall's expense (mostly catches). Moore will have a role if he makes the roster and it will almost certainly involve special teams and 3rd down duties.
Seahawks - a few more carries to Justin Forsett. Very minor tweak, but of all the late round rookies, Forsett is one that intrigues me. First, he's on a team where I feel that despite the signing of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett and the return of Maurice Morris, there is still some question about having a featured back. I could foresee a scenario where either via injury or disappointment, Forsett ends up getting some PT and surprising folks with his ability to make plays. Call it the Dominick Davis scenario. It's a long shot, but of the late round rookies, he's a guy with some upside - especially on an offense like this.
Bulger - increased his pass attempts (and thus how many games I think he's likely to start and play). Now, the problem I have with my current Rams projections is Trent Green with 100 pass attempts. In the event that Bulger goes down (again) I really don't think Green would last long enough to have 100 pass attempts. Here is a guy that should listen to that little guy on his shoulder telling him to retire. Seriously, I worry about his long-term health.
Antonio Bryant - If he makes the team, he'll probably be somewhere between WR2 and WR3 on this team. He's probably better than Ike Hilliard at this point, but he needs to stay clean and out of the police blotter, then we'll see if he can put some numbers in the stat sheets. Right now, he's 3rd going by projections.
That's all for now....
