FBG Projections - Individual Players Overall (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

With all the other threads on staff projections taken as individual projections, which players as a whole seem off?

For example, the average projection of the 5 staffers for Donte Stallworth is 32-474-3. Those would far and away be a career worse season for Stallworth.

Player on three teams over six years, including time with nagging injuries and periods where he was not even a starter, Stallworth has averaged 3.32 receptions, 50.15 receiving yards, and 0.37 TD per game over his career.

He's averaged 14 games played over his career, so an "average" year would be 46-702-5. If you look at averging his last four seasons (again for three different teams), his average was 53-784-5.

Stallworth signed a 7-year, $35 million deal this year with $10 million guaranteed. Would they have given him that kind of money to only catch 32 balls as their #2 WR on a team that ranked Top 10 in scoring and nearly Top in passing?

I understand that Edwards and Winslow will get top billing, but there should be more than table scraps left over for Stallworth. Joe Jurevicius had 50-614-3 last year. Is Stallworth worse at this stage than Joe J?

What other players don't seem to work out right looking at the staff projections as a group insted of individuals?

 

[Chris Smith]

I was surprised to have him as low as I did and could see him stealing additional receptions away from Jurevicius. However he is low on my projections due to these factors...

1. Winslow will catch 80+ receptions ( I have him with 88 ) and TE position around 100

2. Edwards will catch 80+ receptions (I have him with 85 )

3. RB position will catch around 45 passes

4. I expect a bump down in passing numbers for the Browns this season

The TE position, RB position and Edwards account for 230 completions, leaving only 62 more receptions. I have Jurevicius catching more passes than Stallworth but both have identical yardage with Stallworth catching one additional touchdown pass.

If I am incorrect it is in the projected number of completions but I'd be surprised if the Browns passing attack is as successful as it was a season ago.

 

[Bob Henry]

I was surprised to have him as low as I did and could see him stealing additional receptions away from Jurevicius. However he is low on my projections due to these factors...1. Winslow will catch 80+ receptions ( I have him with 88 ) and TE position around 1002. Edwards will catch 80+ receptions (I have him with 85 )3. RB position will catch around 45 passes4. I expect a bump down in passing numbers for the Browns this seasonThe TE position, RB position and Edwards account for 230 completions, leaving only 62 more receptions. I have Jurevicius catching more passes than Stallworth but both have identical yardage with Stallworth catching one additional touchdown pass.If I am incorrect it is in the projected number of completions but I'd be surprised if the Browns passing attack is as successful as it was a season ago.

Nice summary, Chris. I'm in agreement on most of your points and with I also expect to see Josh Cribbs play a bigger role on the offense than he played a year ago. I've never been a big Stallworth guy anyway. I think he was overpaid (grossly) and his role will be emphasized around spreading the defense. With so many other targets in the short and intermediate game, I just don't see him putting up 40-50 receptions. I could be very wrong in my assessment, of course, but if JJ isn't healthy or gets off to a slow start, then Stallworth's numbers will be revisited in my projections later this summer.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Well, I'll take the easy one here...

Marvin Harrison: projections' average

46.2 rec, 587 yards, 12.66 ypr, 4.2 TD

Now, I say this is the "easy" one for being off because it's pretty obvious to me this is a "hedge" projection. I can't see him being anywhere NEAR this low if he truly comes back. Personally I think he's lost the desire to play and will realize that during TC, so my personal projection for Marvin is 0, 0, 0, 0. Now, if he does get motivated to play - in the Colt's offense - there's just no way I can see him ending up with less than 70-80 catches, 900 yrds, and 6 TDs.

Or are all of you guys in agreement that Marvelous will try to come back but fail due to further injuries, or just be plain ineffective? I just can't see that scenario as being very likely.

 

[Bob Henry]

Well, I'll take the easy one here...Marvin Harrison: projections' average46.2 rec, 587 yards, 12.66 ypr, 4.2 TDNow, I say this is the "easy" one for being off because it's pretty obvious to me this is a "hedge" projection. I can't see him being anywhere NEAR this low if he truly comes back. Personally I think he's lost the desire to play and will realize that during TC, so my personal projection for Marvin is 0, 0, 0, 0. Now, if he does get motivated to play - in the Colt's offense - there's just no way I can see him ending up with less than 70-80 catches, 900 yrds, and 6 TDs.Or are all of you guys in agreement that Marvelous will try to come back but fail due to further injuries, or just be plain ineffective? I just can't see that scenario as being very likely.

I agree. I don't know where my projections rank among us staffers, but the numbers I have projected for him I don't feel good about them. I have ZERO'd Terry Glenn and I've been inclined to do the same with Harrison. My reasons are the same as yours. I think he has nothing to play for and has lost his desire to play, get hit and risk further injury to his ailing knee.

 

[Chris Smith]

Well, I'll take the easy one here...Marvin Harrison: projections' average46.2 rec, 587 yards, 12.66 ypr, 4.2 TDNow, I say this is the "easy" one for being off because it's pretty obvious to me this is a "hedge" projection. I can't see him being anywhere NEAR this low if he truly comes back. Personally I think he's lost the desire to play and will realize that during TC, so my personal projection for Marvin is 0, 0, 0, 0. Now, if he does get motivated to play - in the Colt's offense - there's just no way I can see him ending up with less than 70-80 catches, 900 yrds, and 6 TDs.Or are all of you guys in agreement that Marvelous will try to come back but fail due to further injuries, or just be plain ineffective? I just can't see that scenario as being very likely.

Yeah, honestly, my projections with Harrison are a bit of a hedge right now due to the situation. It's impossible to know right now whether (a)he'll be back at all and (b)if his head will be in the game. If the answer to those two questions are 'yes', he will greatly exceed expectations. If not, he'll be a non-factor and Gonzalez will elevate in my projections.

 

[IndyHavoc]

I figured as much guys, thus I called it the "easy" one I was looking through them and almost everything looks in place for the WRs (even as a Stallworth owner, I can't really disagree with the "lowside" projection). I'll take a look at RB / QB later. Actually been working alot, but hitting walls of stone and need a distractions....or I'll throw my PC off the balcony. Not that there's anything wrong with that

 

[Sidewinder16]

I was surprised to have him as low as I did and could see him stealing additional receptions away from Jurevicius. However he is low on my projections due to these factors...1. Winslow will catch 80+ receptions ( I have him with 88 ) and TE position around 1002. Edwards will catch 80+ receptions (I have him with 85 )3. RB position will catch around 45 passes4. I expect a bump down in passing numbers for the Browns this seasonThe TE position, RB position and Edwards account for 230 completions, leaving only 62 more receptions. I have Jurevicius catching more passes than Stallworth but both have identical yardage with Stallworth catching one additional touchdown pass.If I am incorrect it is in the projected number of completions but I'd be surprised if the Browns passing attack is as successful as it was a season ago.

You are bumping total team completions down by 13, but bumping up the completions for all TEs + Edwards by 8. Why?Is the decrease in RB catches (Cleveland RBs had 69 catches last season) simply due to the decrease in team completions, or is it because of changes you see happening to the offensive philosophy/execution.Last year the Browns #1 WR (Edwards) had 80 catches, the #2 (Jurevicius) had 50 and the #3 (Carter) had 8. You are currently predicting an 85/38/26 distribution between WRs #1/2/3. IYO, what's the cause for this significant shift in distribution?

 

[EBF]

I think where projections run into a lot of problems is with "either or" players whose role is a little bit uncertain. Jonathan Stewart is a great example this year. Only one staffer has him projected for over 1,000 yards. The other four all have him below 810 yards. These numbers probably represent a middle ground between his expected production if he's the starter and his expected production if he's the backup, yet his actual season totals will probably reflect one of the two polar extremes (i.e. he'll either have 500 yards or 1,200 yards).

Personally, I think they'll give him a lot of carries if he's healthy. They're obviously not satisfied with D-Will as their lead back and they made some additions this offseason that suggest a return to the Stephen Davis days of pounding the rock. Foster had 247 carries last season. I think Stewart assumes that role and then some, making him a good candidate to shatter his projections if he stays healthy. It's a little bit of an ADP redux, although Stewart isn't as talented.

Kevin Smith and Matt Forte also fit the "either or" mold to a certain extent, but I'm not as confident in their ability to win the job right away.

Chris Johnson could catch a lot more passes than expected. Tennessee has terrible receivers. Johnson should get a lot of looks.

I could see Matt Schaub taking a big step forward this year. He has the talent and Houston has the weapons.

Four out of five staff members have Isaac Bruce below 650 yards. I don't see him failing to hit 800 if he stays healthy.

Mark Clayton is healthy after playing through injuries last season. I think he can get his numbers back to 2006 levels.

I don't get the Stallworth hate. He had a decent 2007 on minimal targets. I think he's the WR2 Cleveland has been looking for.

Antonio Bryant has always put up decent numbers when he plays. If he can win some playing time, he'll put up some yards.

Finally, I think we could see better than expected numbers from Washington's receivers. Campbell is good enough to yield some decent stats from his wideouts. Moss will start and should do reasonably well. I think either Kelly or Thomas could make an instant impact. Kelly seems more polished, so I'd probably give the nod to him. 600-800 yards with a half dozen scores seems realistic IMO.

 

[Chris Smith]

I was surprised to have him as low as I did and could see him stealing additional receptions away from Jurevicius. However he is low on my projections due to these factors...1. Winslow will catch 80+ receptions ( I have him with 88 ) and TE position around 1002. Edwards will catch 80+ receptions (I have him with 85 )3. RB position will catch around 45 passes4. I expect a bump down in passing numbers for the Browns this seasonThe TE position, RB position and Edwards account for 230 completions, leaving only 62 more receptions. I have Jurevicius catching more passes than Stallworth but both have identical yardage with Stallworth catching one additional touchdown pass.If I am incorrect it is in the projected number of completions but I'd be surprised if the Browns passing attack is as successful as it was a season ago.

You are bumping total team completions down by 13, but bumping up the completions for all TEs + Edwards by 8. Why?Is the decrease in RB catches (Cleveland RBs had 69 catches last season) simply due to the decrease in team completions, or is it because of changes you see happening to the offensive philosophy/execution.Last year the Browns #1 WR (Edwards) had 80 catches, the #2 (Jurevicius) had 50 and the #3 (Carter) had 8. You are currently predicting an 85/38/26 distribution between WRs #1/2/3. IYO, what's the cause for this significant shift in distribution?

Good questions... I believe that Winslow and Edwards are continuing to improve as players hence the slight bump up this season. I believe that Derek Anderson has a comfort level with both of them and they'll get the majority of the looks.The RB position doesn't have an elite receiver. I tweaked the RB position downwards because of Stallworth coming in. As far as the shift goes, in a nutshell, Stallworth >>> Carter and he'll have a bigger impact. I wouldn't be surprised to see the reception numbers for Jurevicius and Stallworth reversed

 

[brock]

just because cleveland overspent on stallworth doesn't mean he's actually going to see a significant amount of catches.

 

[moderated]

Overall season projections are worthless IMO.

Projections shouldn't try to account for injuries since that is an impossible task. They should be done in a PPG format which would be a far better way to judge accuracy since even if injured those games won't count against the accuracy in the projection...which they shouldn't

Just an example, instead of projecting 1,600 yards/16 TD's the projection should be done in PPG format such as 100 yards/1 TD per game instead of trying to be a psychic and account for a certain amount of games missed.

The end result would let you know who actually projected better at the end of the season.

 

[gheemony]

I think where projections run into a lot of problems is with "either or" players whose role is a little bit uncertain. Jonathan Stewart is a great example this year. Only one staffer has him projected for over 1,000 yards. The other four all have him below 810 yards. These numbers probably represent a middle ground between his expected production if he's the starter and his expected production if he's the backup, yet his actual season totals will probably reflect one of the two polar extremes (i.e. he'll either have 500 yards or 1,200 yards). Personally, I think they'll give him a lot of carries if he's healthy. They're obviously not satisfied with D-Will as their lead back and they made some additions this offseason that suggest a return to the Stephen Davis days of pounding the rock. Foster had 247 carries last season. I think Stewart assumes that role and then some, making him a good candidate to shatter his projections if he stays healthy. It's a little bit of an ADP redux, although Stewart isn't as talented. Kevin Smith and Matt Forte also fit the "either or" mold to a certain extent, but I'm not as confident in their ability to win the job right away. Chris Johnson could catch a lot more passes than expected. Tennessee has terrible receivers. Johnson should get a lot of looks. I could see Matt Schaub taking a big step forward this year. He has the talent and Houston has the weapons. Four out of five staff members have Isaac Bruce below 650 yards. I don't see him failing to hit 800 if he stays healthy. Mark Clayton is healthy after playing through injuries last season. I think he can get his numbers back to 2006 levels. I don't get the Stallworth hate. He had a decent 2007 on minimal targets. I think he's the WR2 Cleveland has been looking for. Antonio Bryant has always put up decent numbers when he plays. If he can win some playing time, he'll put up some yards. Finally, I think we could see better than expected numbers from Washington's receivers. Campbell is good enough to yield some decent stats from his wideouts. Moss will start and should do reasonably well. I think either Kelly or Thomas could make an instant impact. Kelly seems more polished, so I'd probably give the nod to him. 600-800 yards with a half dozen scores seems realistic IMO.

I agree, that's why I'd like to see a move to providing a range of projections. Could be a high and a low as well as a median. Could also involve providing a median, but providing probability of going higher or lower. A good example of this is, IIRc, Baseball Prospectu. I think they provide a projection plus a % probability that the player will exceed the prior year's performance. Or provide a numerical projection with a graphical representation of the range.For example, Harrison's projections may be for 500 yards, but his bar would range from 0 yards to 1000 yards. On the other hand, I think the "band" for someone like Reggie Wayne would be much smaller.This would be helpful because you could have two players projected to score 100 FP. But one player may have a "band" of 75-125, while the other could have a band of 25-175. You can then decide whether you want a player with lots of upside or the player that is likely to be more consistent.In the past, I've come up with something like this by using the Projections Dominator to average all of the projections and give me a high and low. I then use the average to rank/tier the players, but use the high/low range to rank within a tier or choose between two equal players.Sorry to hijack the thread, but I think it's relevant to discussion of how Individual Player Projections can go way off. It'd be nice if Projections Dominator could produce median, max, min, and a graphical representation of this. Could be very useful.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some very good posts in this thread.

In reference to the PPG compared to EOY projections - how would one create this without 1st projecting for the whole year? I am open to different ways of doing this but I am not exactly clear on what method one would use to do this without doing the EOY projection first.

I have seen people do projections based off of the idividual player without taking into account the entire team. There always seem off though. Most obviously when you see a QB from a team getting more or less projected stats than the sum of the skill players projections.

Therefore I think for better accuracy doing a team projection is the best way to start. Then using logic and historical study to assign portions of the pie within the confines of the team projection. It becomes easy enough then to average these results into a PPG projection if you find that to me more useful. If you were to project for this in some other way I still have to question the accuracy if that method was not based on a team projection.

As far as projecting player ranges I have been doing this for many years now and it makes a lot of sense to me although it is much more work. One can cookie cut the projection ranges to fit together under the team projection which when read properly make a lot of sense. If player X hits the peak of your projection then other player(s) on the team will be hitting the low of their projections because player X got a bigger piece of the pie. And you can check and adjust your projections to ensure that it does all fit under the team projection.

Of course your team projections are the most important piece of the puzzle and how accurate they are will be the key to how good your player projections can be. The projection ranges do help accuracy in my opinion because you are looking at a low and a high for each player rather than a static projection. And like mentioned above this allows you to tier and rank within a tier as well as make decisions while you are drafting. For example lets say you allready took a WR based off of their upside earlier in the draft but you have that player projected to have a wide range of variance. Now it is your pick again and you are looking at a group of players within the same teir. You may then opt to draft a player with a tighter range of variance to hopefully give you more consistency thus offsetting the risk/reward involved with the high variance player you allready selected. Or vice versa. I have found this to be useful to me in the past and I have burned myself making decisions like this also. But to me having more information does help one make more informed decisions.

Of course if your projections are way off your going to make bad decisions based on them. I have found that a projection range helps mitigate some of that risk from a bad projection although not always. I tend to be too conservative with my projections when all is said and done even with the upside of my projection ranges. That causes me to not value break out players high enough even though I may clearly see that possibility. That is something I would like to improve upon, but super high projections make me nervous.

 

[gheemony]

Some very good posts in this thread.In reference to the PPG compared to EOY projections - how would one create this without 1st projecting for the whole year? I am open to different ways of doing this but I am not exactly clear on what method one would use to do this without doing the EOY projection first.I have seen people do projections based off of the idividual player without taking into account the entire team. There always seem off though. Most obviously when you see a QB from a team getting more or less projected stats than the sum of the skill players projections.Therefore I think for better accuracy doing a team projection is the best way to start. Then using logic and historical study to assign portions of the pie within the confines of the team projection. It becomes easy enough then to average these results into a PPG projection if you find that to me more useful. If you were to project for this in some other way I still have to question the accuracy if that method was not based on a team projection.As far as projecting player ranges I have been doing this for many years now and it makes a lot of sense to me although it is much more work. One can cookie cut the projection ranges to fit together under the team projection which when read properly make a lot of sense. If player X hits the peak of your projection then other player(s) on the team will be hitting the low of their projections because player X got a bigger piece of the pie. And you can check and adjust your projections to ensure that it does all fit under the team projection. Of course your team projections are the most important piece of the puzzle and how accurate they are will be the key to how good your player projections can be. The projection ranges do help accuracy in my opinion because you are looking at a low and a high for each player rather than a static projection. And like mentioned above this allows you to tier and rank within a tier as well as make decisions while you are drafting. For example lets say you allready took a WR based off of their upside earlier in the draft but you have that player projected to have a wide range of variance. Now it is your pick again and you are looking at a group of players within the same teir. You may then opt to draft a player with a tighter range of variance to hopefully give you more consistency thus offsetting the risk/reward involved with the high variance player you allready selected. Or vice versa. I have found this to be useful to me in the past and I have burned myself making decisions like this also. But to me having more information does help one make more informed decisions.Of course if your projections are way off your going to make bad decisions based on them. I have found that a projection range helps mitigate some of that risk from a bad projection although not always. I tend to be too conservative with my projections when all is said and done even with the upside of my projection ranges. That causes me to not value break out players high enough even though I may clearly see that possibility. That is something I would like to improve upon, but super high projections make me nervous.

To me this screams that TEAM projections need to be scrutinized more. And TEAM SPOTLIGHT threads might be a great way to do it.What if in March, we had Dodds, Tremblay, Henry, and the others making projections post their preliminary team projections and put them in one thread. We can look at all of their projections, the teams' performance the last three years, and some averages of all of these. Then we all post our projections based on this info. I think you would end up with a better average projection plus a good idea of variance.It would also lead to good discussion (e.g., how much will the Pats pass, what's the impact of Martz on SF, how much will DET really run, impact of Cam Cameron). Putting all of that in one thread will help everyone make their individual projections once the draft settles down and you have names to assign when you divvy up the pie.I guess I'm promoting a consensus FBG Shark Pool projection that is top (team) down (individual).

 

[Bri]

I think where projections run into a lot of problems is with "either or" players whose role is a little bit uncertain. Jonathan Stewart is a great example this year. Only one staffer has him projected for over 1,000 yards. The other four all have him below 810 yards. These numbers probably represent a middle ground between his expected production if he's the starter and his expected production if he's the backup, yet his actual season totals will probably reflect one of the two polar extremes (i.e. he'll either have 500 yards or 1,200 yards). Personally, I think they'll give him a lot of carries if he's healthy. They're obviously not satisfied with D-Will as their lead back and they made some additions this offseason that suggest a return to the Stephen Davis days of pounding the rock. Foster had 247 carries last season. I think Stewart assumes that role and then some, making him a good candidate to shatter his projections if he stays healthy. It's a little bit of an ADP redux, although Stewart isn't as talented.

They've had two backs since day 1 with each starter getting hurt, it's almost a jinx. I think Williams gets the lion's share and Stewart fills in

Kevin Smith and Matt Forte also fit the "either or" mold to a certain extent, but I'm not as confident in their ability to win the job right away.

confident in Smith for now, figuring they sign someone. I'd like to say Forte but they've danced with the same QB's knowing it's a problem why will they switch away from Benson. It'd be a nice change, not sure they'd make it. Tough to predict these.

Chris Johnson could catch a lot more passes than expected. Tennessee has terrible receivers. Johnson should get a lot of looks.

If he looks as great in pads as he did in shorts he's the starter. Since that's not so likely(rookie learning curve and all) I agree he should catch alot

I could see Matt Schaub taking a big step forward this year. He has the talent and Houston has the weapons.

I love his prospects for 08

Four out of five staff members have Isaac Bruce below 650 yards. I don't see him failing to hit 800 if he stays healthy.

Hard to know when to say he's done.

Mark Clayton is healthy after playing through injuries last season. I think he can get his numbers back to 2006 levels.

Agreed, also Williams kinda fell from grace last year

I don't get the Stallworth hate. He had a decent 2007 on minimal targets. I think he's the WR2 Cleveland has been looking for.

He plays small IMO and comes across as limitted

Antonio Bryant has always put up decent numbers when he plays. If he can win some playing time, he'll put up some yards.

Did you say Boston or Bryant? That's how it kinda feels. I don't disagree but there's a big fool's gold feel to it

Finally, I think we could see better than expected numbers from Washington's receivers. Campbell is good enough to yield some decent stats from his wideouts. Moss will start and should do reasonably well. I think either Kelly or Thomas could make an instant impact. Kelly seems more polished, so I'd probably give the nod to him. 600-800 yards with a half dozen scores seems realistic IMO.

Mix has always looked good in preseason. It seems they're forcing the rooks to beat him out. On the one hand I love that philosophy, on the other I'm wonderring how many reps they'll wind up with with the first string O. If Mix is going to be cut one way or another, is it worth it? Mix is a big monkey wrench here. IMO They have to add height to their WR corps so ya gotta pencil in a taller player into their plans. Again with the first string reps, what's Thrash there for? If the rooks don't get the practice time they need, their production is affected. It's going to be tricky for Zorn

 

[EBF]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played.

Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO.

As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

 

[footballman_696969]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played.

I agree that Williams will play the same role he's played the last couple of years, and that Stewart could easily eclipse 1000 yards. Carolina has done a lot to improve their offense this year. Delhomme will be healthy again, and the Panthers offense really struggled without him. They went and Grabbed Otah and Stewart in the first round, and they also added Muhammad and Hackett to the passing game. I expect them to see a good number of red zone opportunities, with Stewart Getting the bulk of the goaline carries. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 10 tds this year.

 

[LBH]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

 

[jurb26]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

 

[LBH]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

 

[EBF]

IMO, a lot of people greatly exaggerated DeAngelo's skills when he was entering the league. He doesn't really have the top burst of a home run hitter and he runs small. If Stewart is as good as advertised, there's no doubt in my mind he will become the guy you want to own here.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

 

[jurb26]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

People seem to have short memories around here any more.

 

[LBH]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

People seem to have short memories around here any more.

I think youre memory is short. Last time I checked DW has done nothing but ride the pine behind a guy who just signed a contract to be a back up. If you and the rest of the DW apologists want to believe hes in for a big role now that they just drafted arguably the most talented RB in this draft class that also happens to be a better fit for a smashmouth style of play go right ahead and believe that, but I have little doubt that DW owners are going to be dissapointed once again. The only positive things ive read about D.Williams in the last 2 years were from beat writers prior to the 07 season, and fantasy owners. The beat writers have caught a clue but sadly the fantasy owners are still clinging to optimism.The local papers take on the situation right after the draft........The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

 

[jurb26]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

People seem to have short memories around here any more.

I think youre memory is short. Last time I checked DW has done nothing but ride the pine behind a guy who just signed a contract to be a back up. If you and the rest of the DW apologists want to believe hes in for a big role now that they just drafted arguably the most talented RB in this draft class that also happens to be a better fit for a smashmouth style of play go right ahead and believe that, but I have little doubt that DW owners are going to be dissapointed once again. The only positive things ive read about D.Williams in the last 2 years were from beat writers prior to the 07 season, and fantasy owners. The beat writers have caught a clue but sadly the fantasy owners are still clinging to optimism.The local papers take on the situation right after the draft........The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

Where did I or anyone in this thread say Williams was in for a big role? We have said this is a RBBC. Williams has done nothing the but ride the pine the past few years huh? Funny, I didn't know guys who never got off the pine amassed 161 touches in 13 games and 167 touches in 16 games. Looks like your memory is shorter than most. Sorry, Stewart is not the most talented RB in this years class and few have argued that. I guess you have been listening to a lot of EBF. You can call me an apologist all you want, but the truth of the matter is I don't expect anything but a let down for anyone banking on a Car RB this year. I'm not banking on Williams or Stewart. Looking at the FBG projections it looks like I'm not alone either. LOL, the local papers.....

 

[Real Man of Genius]

 

[kevinallen]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played.

Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO.

As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

People seem to have short memories around here any more.

I think youre memory is short. Last time I checked DW has done nothing but ride the pine behind a guy who just signed a contract to be a back up. If you and the rest of the DW apologists want to believe hes in for a big role now that they just drafted arguably the most talented RB in this draft class that also happens to be a better fit for a smashmouth style of play go right ahead and believe that, but I have little doubt that DW owners are going to be disappointed once again.The only positive things ive read about D.Williams in the last 2 years were from beat writers prior to the 07 season, and fantasy owners. The beat writers have caught a clue but sadly the fantasy owners are still clinging to optimism.

The local papers take on the situation right after the draft........

The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

If history has taught us anything in Carolina, it's been that the most disappointed owners have been the ones waiting for Fox to bench his vet RB and lean on the young rookie full-time, no matter how talented the fans feel like he is (Foster, Shelton, Williams). And wouldnt it be just like John Fox to leave his most explosive player (minus S.Smith) in to pass block on 3rd downs?

 

[LBH]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

People seem to have short memories around here any more.

I think youre memory is short. Last time I checked DW has done nothing but ride the pine behind a guy who just signed a contract to be a back up. If you and the rest of the DW apologists want to believe hes in for a big role now that they just drafted arguably the most talented RB in this draft class that also happens to be a better fit for a smashmouth style of play go right ahead and believe that, but I have little doubt that DW owners are going to be dissapointed once again. The only positive things ive read about D.Williams in the last 2 years were from beat writers prior to the 07 season, and fantasy owners. The beat writers have caught a clue but sadly the fantasy owners are still clinging to optimism.The local papers take on the situation right after the draft........The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

Where did I or anyone in this thread say Williams was in for a big role? We have said this is a RBBC. Williams has done nothing the but ride the pine the past few years huh? Funny, I didn't know guys who never got off the pine amassed 161 touches in 13 games and 167 touches in 16 games. Looks like your memory is shorter than most. Sorry, Stewart is not the most talented RB in this years class and few have argued that. I guess you have been listening to a lot of EBF. You can call me an apologist all you want, but the truth of the matter is I don't expect anything but a let down for anyone banking on a Car RB this year. I'm not banking on Williams or Stewart. Looking at the FBG projections it looks like I'm not alone either. LOL, the local papers.....

I could see DW maybe getting 100-150 rushes, and I could also see this starting out as a RBBC, but I also dont think it will take long for Stewart to overtake DW as the feature RB. "Riding the pine" may have been a bit much, but he was clearly number 2 on the depth chart and 65 of those 144 rushes came in december with Carolina out of the playoffs and limping to a 7-9 finish. We can agree to disagree on Stewart being the best RB in the class. Nothing but time will prove who is right there. I think Fox prefers a feature RB so Im not seeing a RBBC for the duration of the season like so many fantasy enthusiasts are. At least no more than it was last year. I pretty much make up my own mind on things fantasy football related so this EBF person isnt going to sway my opinion any more that you are. LOL on that!!! Also I take what the beat writers say with a grain of salt, but they just might have a better idea of the situation in Carolina than you do (I know thats hard to believe)

 

[jurb26]

Carolina has had two backs because neither Foster nor Williams ever showed enough to be "the man." Stewart is a more complete back than either. If he's healthy and relatively fast to digest the playbook, he should be a 1,000 yard rusher next season. I see him as the Marion Barber in this situation with DeAngelo playing the same role he's always played. Stallworth is not a stud, but he's usually moderately productive. I don't see that suddenly changing. 600-1,000 yards IMO. As for Bryant, all I'm saying is he's probably the second most talented WR on the team. Given Galloway's advanced age and the absence of other playmakers on the roster, there's room for someone to emerge in that situation.

completely agree on your take of the Carolina RB situation. I cant believe the amount of people who think the Panthers are going to let DW have a significant role after he couldnt beat out Foster for 2 seasons, and now the Panthers take a big talented RB with the 13th overall draft pick? That doesnt scream confidance in DW to me. I expect over 1000yds and possible double digit TDs for Stewart. Hes my #1 rated rookie

The Panthers drafted Williams with the #27 pick overall when everyone thought they should not have confidence in Foster. Stewart has also have numerous injury problems throughout his college career. This will be a RBBC.

I think that DW not being able to overtake Foster on the depth chart for two seasons and subsequent drafting of Stewart with the 13th overall is an admission that they were wrong about DW. It wont be a RBBC, its going to be all Stewart sooner than later. Its all speculation and opinion, but thats mine

John Fox stayed with Stephen Davis when most people thought DeShaun Foster was better. He stayed with DeShaun Foster when most people thought DeAngelo Williams was better.Maybe he'll stay with DeAngelo Williams this season -- and people will say it's an admission that the Panthers were wrong about Stewart.

People seem to have short memories around here any more.

I think youre memory is short. Last time I checked DW has done nothing but ride the pine behind a guy who just signed a contract to be a back up. If you and the rest of the DW apologists want to believe hes in for a big role now that they just drafted arguably the most talented RB in this draft class that also happens to be a better fit for a smashmouth style of play go right ahead and believe that, but I have little doubt that DW owners are going to be dissapointed once again. The only positive things ive read about D.Williams in the last 2 years were from beat writers prior to the 07 season, and fantasy owners. The beat writers have caught a clue but sadly the fantasy owners are still clinging to optimism.The local papers take on the situation right after the draft........The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

Where did I or anyone in this thread say Williams was in for a big role? We have said this is a RBBC. Williams has done nothing the but ride the pine the past few years huh? Funny, I didn't know guys who never got off the pine amassed 161 touches in 13 games and 167 touches in 16 games. Looks like your memory is shorter than most. Sorry, Stewart is not the most talented RB in this years class and few have argued that. I guess you have been listening to a lot of EBF. You can call me an apologist all you want, but the truth of the matter is I don't expect anything but a let down for anyone banking on a Car RB this year. I'm not banking on Williams or Stewart. Looking at the FBG projections it looks like I'm not alone either. LOL, the local papers.....

I could see DW maybe getting 100-150 rushes, and I could also see this starting out as a RBBC, but I also dont think it will take long for Stewart to overtake DW as the feature RB. "Riding the pine" may have been a bit much, but he was clearly number 2 on the depth chart and 65 of those 144 rushes came in december with Carolina out of the playoffs and limping to a 7-9 finish. We can agree to disagree on Stewart being the best RB in the class. Nothing but time will prove who is right there. I think Fox prefers a feature RB so Im not seeing a RBBC for the duration of the season like so many fantasy enthusiasts are. At least no more than it was last year. I pretty much make up my own mind on things fantasy football related so this EBF person isnt going to sway my opinion any more that you are. LOL on that!!! Also I take what the beat writers say with a grain of salt, but they just might have a better idea of the situation in Carolina than you do (I know thats hard to believe)

Beat writers in Car have been getting this wrong for years and it's June. Any beat writer that starts off with a statement of:

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster

isn't going to get a whole lot of credibility from me or probably most people who aren't blinded by love for Stewart.

 

[LBH]

Beat writers in Car have been getting this wrong for years and it's June. Any beat writer that starts off with a statement of:

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster

isn't going to get a whole lot of credibility from me or probably most people who aren't blinded by love for Stewart.

You would debate that Foster is more talented than J.Stewart? ummm...ok. I dont agree, but i guess it could be just me

 

[jurb26]

Beat writers in Car have been getting this wrong for years and it's June. Any beat writer that starts off with a statement of:

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster

isn't going to get a whole lot of credibility from me or probably most people who aren't blinded by love for Stewart.

You would debate that Foster is more talented than J.Stewart? ummm...ok. I dont agree, but i guess it could be just me

What you've never seen a rookie bust before? I like Stewart and think he is more talented, but saying a rookie is better than a guy who held a starting job for 2 years is not debatable is simply ridiculous.

 

[LBH]

Beat writers in Car have been getting this wrong for years and it's June. Any beat writer that starts off with a statement of:

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster

isn't going to get a whole lot of credibility from me or probably most people who aren't blinded by love for Stewart.

You would debate that Foster is more talented than J.Stewart? ummm...ok. I dont agree, but i guess it could be just me

What you've never seen a rookie bust before? I like Stewart and think he is more talented, but saying a rookie is better than a guy who held a starting job for 2 years is not debatable is simply ridiculous.

ok i see your point, but i still think the vast majority would agree that Stewart is more talented than Foster. So literally yes it is debatable, but realisticly how many would want to debate that Foster is more talented than Stewart?