Felix Jones vs. CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I also came up with those numbers pro-rated over a 16 game season. Problem I see though is that as his carries go up, his YPC is going to go down. I think it would be extremely difficult to average 6 yards a carry if he gets close to 200 carries.

I think PFR had a blog post which showed that wasn't really true. Plus, his highest YPCs were, for the most part, in the games he got the most carries. I think that has to do with him getting more opportunities to break a long run, boosting the YPC.

As both a Felix and Cowboys fan, I would love nothing more to see his YPC increase with additional carries. I just have a hard time seeing it.That theory by PFR seems fairly empty; I don't understand how carry n+1 has any greater (or poorer) chance of some expected result than carry n. Unless we're talking about factors like down and distance.Just to see how that worked for Felix last season, I split his games (including the playoffs) into those where he had 10 or more carries and those where he didn't.In (9) games with under 10 carries:378 Yards Rushing6.63 YPCIn (7) games with over 10 carries:524 Yards Rushing5.89 YPC

 

[TS Garp]

The final four games of last season, and the two playoff games, the Cowboys finally got to using Felix how they intended from the day he was drafted. Over that span, he averaged the following:

13 Carries

79 Yards Rushing

0.33 TDs

2 Catches

16 Yards Receiving

0 TDs

Because of having Barber and Choice on the roster, I wouldn't expect those numbers to jump significantly. Also, add in the fact that he has some injury issues, and I think the coaching staff will try to limit him to about 15 touches a game.

Because of his big play ability, I think he definitely has the potential to reach anywhere from 1000-1500 total yards and handfull of TDs. Problem is, you're probably going to get a good portion of his fantasy numbers in a few good games.

Unless he really breaks out and starts getting a much bigger piece of the pie, you're probably looking at a solid RB3 with high-end RB2 potential. Draft accordingly.

I think this is great advice. He's going to have some huge games, but ultimately the Cowboys will limit him and I think he'll be overvalued in most leagues next year. I know some owners have Chris Johnson II in their heads, but I don't see it. After all, Wade Phillips is trying to win a Super Bowl, not a fantasy league.

if Wade is trying to win a Super Bowl, doesnt he want to put his best players on the field? Choice is a very good RB, but he's nowhere near Felix's playmaking ability. Felix is "built" well enough (218 lbs) to be a "lead" back in an offense - lead back meaning 220-250 carries (14-16 per game). Obviously he hasn't shown he can handle that type of load, until the last 5+ games where he did well.

I think we'll see in 2010 what the coaching staff/Jerry Jones think of Jones - the first round RB they drafted - is he a lead back or a complementary back.

I think the Cowboys know that Felix is on the fragile side, and they want him fresh for the post-season, so they'll limit his wear and tear throughout the season. They have the luxury of having three great backs, and, while I agree that Felix is the best one, Choice and Barber are very good, so they'll use them to switch things up and make sure that Felix doesn't get too banged up. Again, that's just how I see it, and I do believe Felix will get the most work of the three, but not enough to be a true #1 fantasy RB.

 

[H.K.]

I can cherry pick 11 games too that will show he has 10.0+ YPC and 20 TDs...

OK, let's see 'em.

 

[mikel0254]

I can cherry pick 11 games too that will show he has 10.0+ YPC and 20 TDs...

OK, let's see 'em.

It's irrelevant to the conversation to take 11 random games and make an overall statement like he's not NFL ready. It adds nothing

 

[mikel0254]

I can cherry pick 11 games too that will show he has 10.0+ YPC and 20 TDs...

OK, let's see 'em.

It's irrelevant to the conversation to take 11 random games and make an overall statement like he's not NFL ready. It adds nothing

Oh, and just for funDATE OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST 30-Sep 06 Louisiana Tech W 51-0 15 127 8.5 20 1 2 13 6.5 13 0 0 07-Oct 06 @Wake Forest W 27-17 9 104 11.6 72 1 3 18 6 15 0 0 025-Nov 06 South Carolina L 31-28 10 155 15.5 80 2 2 17 8.5 11 0 0 0Bowl 07 @Auburn L 23-20 (OT) 8 112 14 83 1 2 -5 -2.5 5 0 0 06-Sep 08 Citadel W 45-17 6 75 12.5 37 3 32 16 27 0 0 017-Oct 09 Wake Forest W 38-3 9 106 11.8 66 2 2 6 3 9 0 0 07-Nov 09 Florida State W 40-24 22 165 7.5 45 1 3 67 22.3 58 1 0 05-Dec 09 Georgia Tech L 39-34 20 233 11.7 54 4 1 5 5 5 0 0 099 carries1,077 yards10.88 YPC15 TD'sAnd that's only 8 games

 

[GSWarriors]

The final four games of last season, and the two playoff games, the Cowboys finally got to using Felix how they intended from the day he was drafted. Over that span, he averaged the following:

13 Carries

79 Yards Rushing

0.33 TDs

2 Catches

16 Yards Receiving

0 TDs

Because of having Barber and Choice on the roster, I wouldn't expect those numbers to jump significantly. Also, add in the fact that he has some injury issues, and I think the coaching staff will try to limit him to about 15 touches a game.

Because of his big play ability, I think he definitely has the potential to reach anywhere from 1000-1500 total yards and handfull of TDs. Problem is, you're probably going to get a good portion of his fantasy numbers in a few good games.

Unless he really breaks out and starts getting a much bigger piece of the pie, you're probably looking at a solid RB3 with high-end RB2 potential. Draft accordingly.

:X I think this is great advice. He's going to have some huge games, but ultimately the Cowboys will limit him and I think he'll be overvalued in most leagues next year. I know some owners have Chris Johnson II in their heads, but I don't see it. After all, Wade Phillips is trying to win a Super Bowl, not a fantasy league.

if Wade is trying to win a Super Bowl, doesnt he want to put his best players on the field? Choice is a very good RB, but he's nowhere near Felix's playmaking ability. Felix is "built" well enough (218 lbs) to be a "lead" back in an offense - lead back meaning 220-250 carries (14-16 per game). Obviously he hasn't shown he can handle that type of load, until the last 5+ games where he did well.

I think we'll see in 2010 what the coaching staff/Jerry Jones think of Jones - the first round RB they drafted - is he a lead back or a complementary back.

I think the Cowboys know that Felix is on the fragile side, and they want him fresh for the post-season, so they'll limit his wear and tear throughout the season. They have the luxury of having three great backs, and, while I agree that Felix is the best one, Choice and Barber are very good, so they'll use them to switch things up and make sure that Felix doesn't get too banged up. Again, that's just how I see it, and I do believe Felix will get the most work of the three, but not enough to be a true #1 fantasy RB.

You said Felix will get most of the work, but not even get 14 carries a game which is around 220 for the year? So are you trying to say none of the 3 RBs will reach 200 carries? I dont believe 14 carries a game is overworking a 218 lb RB.

 

[SacramentoBob]

CJ Spiller. This shouldn't be close.

 

[Ernol]

The final four games of last season, and the two playoff games, the Cowboys finally got to using Felix how they intended from the day he was drafted. Over that span, he averaged the following:13 Carries79 Yards Rushing0.33 TDs2 Catches16 Yards Receiving0 TDsBecause of having Barber and Choice on the roster, I wouldn't expect those numbers to jump significantly. Also, add in the fact that he has some injury issues, and I think the coaching staff will try to limit him to about 15 touches a game.Because of his big play ability, I think he definitely has the potential to reach anywhere from 1000-1500 total yards and handfull of TDs. Problem is, you're probably going to get a good portion of his fantasy numbers in a few good games.Unless he really breaks out and starts getting a much bigger piece of the pie, you're probably looking at a solid RB3 with high-end RB2 potential. Draft accordingly.

IF (and that's a big if), they use him exactly the same way and he plays all 16 games (another big if), that works out to:208/1264/5 rushing and another 32/256/0 rec. In a 1 ppr league, that's 214 FP. That would have been good enough for RB14 this year right behind T. Hightower and Fred Jackson. Of course, he could see a larger workload and of course he could also have games missed. Just showing what it works out to be.

Doesn't sound all that impressive when you put it that way, but if either Felix or CJ Spiller were to be the RB14 this upcoming year with those numbers, they would be a top 5 pick in startups in 2011. A number of guys ahead of the RB14 like a Hightower or Jackson don't really factor in in terms of dynasty value.

 

[H.K.]

I can cherry pick 11 games too that will show he has 10.0+ YPC and 20 TDs...

OK, let's see 'em.

It's irrelevant to the conversation to take 11 random games and make an overall statement like he's not NFL ready. It adds nothing

Oh, and just for funDATE OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST 30-Sep 06 Louisiana Tech W 51-0 15 127 8.5 20 1 2 13 6.5 13 0 0 07-Oct 06 @Wake Forest W 27-17 9 104 11.6 72 1 3 18 6 15 0 0 025-Nov 06 South Carolina L 31-28 10 155 15.5 80 2 2 17 8.5 11 0 0 0Bowl 07 @Auburn L 23-20 (OT) 8 112 14 83 1 2 -5 -2.5 5 0 0 06-Sep 08 Citadel W 45-17 6 75 12.5 37 3 32 16 27 0 0 017-Oct 09 Wake Forest W 38-3 9 106 11.8 66 2 2 6 3 9 0 0 07-Nov 09 Florida State W 40-24 22 165 7.5 45 1 3 67 22.3 58 1 0 05-Dec 09 Georgia Tech L 39-34 20 233 11.7 54 4 1 5 5 5 0 0 099 carries1,077 yards10.88 YPC15 TD'sAnd that's only 8 games

Keep going...

 

[mikel0254]

I can cherry pick 11 games too that will show he has 10.0+ YPC and 20 TDs...

OK, let's see 'em.

It's irrelevant to the conversation to take 11 random games and make an overall statement like he's not NFL ready. It adds nothing

Oh, and just for funDATE OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST 30-Sep 06 Louisiana Tech W 51-0 15 127 8.5 20 1 2 13 6.5 13 0 0 07-Oct 06 @Wake Forest W 27-17 9 104 11.6 72 1 3 18 6 15 0 0 025-Nov 06 South Carolina L 31-28 10 155 15.5 80 2 2 17 8.5 11 0 0 0Bowl 07 @Auburn L 23-20 (OT) 8 112 14 83 1 2 -5 -2.5 5 0 0 06-Sep 08 Citadel W 45-17 6 75 12.5 37 3 32 16 27 0 0 017-Oct 09 Wake Forest W 38-3 9 106 11.8 66 2 2 6 3 9 0 0 07-Nov 09 Florida State W 40-24 22 165 7.5 45 1 3 67 22.3 58 1 0 05-Dec 09 Georgia Tech L 39-34 20 233 11.7 54 4 1 5 5 5 0 0 099 carries1,077 yards10.88 YPC15 TD'sAnd that's only 8 games

Keep going...

I think I made my point. It's worthless to cherry pick a few games to make an overall statement. Let's reverse it and say I posted what you did with just those 8 games I listed. My conclusion would be he'll be the #1 RB in the NFL. HOF'er for sure! Would that make any sense? No, of course not. My point wasn't that there are EXACTLY 11 games where he'll have 10+ YPC and 20 TD's, my point is I can pick 11 games and come to a completely different conclusion than you, but that's not constructive.If you honestly think cherry picking Spiller's 11 worst games where scored 2 total TD’s and averaged under 4 YPC is the way to make an overall conclusion about if he'll be good in the NFL or not, then I'll save my energy for someone who can make a valid argument

 

[H.K.]

I think I made my point. It's worthless to cherry pick a few games to make an overall statement. Let's reverse it and say I posted what you did with just those 8 games I listed. My conclusion would be he'll be the #1 RB in the NFL. HOF'er for sure! Would that make any sense? No, of course not. My point wasn't that there are EXACTLY 11 games where he'll have 10+ YPC and 20 TD's, my point is I can pick 11 games and come to a completely different conclusion than you, but that's not constructive.If you honestly think cherry picking Spiller's 11 worst games where scored 2 total TD’s and averaged under 4 YPC is the way to make an overall conclusion about if he'll be good in the NFL or not, then I'll save my energy for someone who can make a valid argument

Personally, I hope Spiller is the best RB in the history of the league. However, I think you misinterpreted the intent of my post. Also, I never said he wasn't NFL ready, either. I question his ability to be feature back material at the next level based on his career in college. My post about his worst games included much better competition than the likes of LA Tech and the Citadel, two opponents where he had some of his best games. I'd rather see how he did against ranked teams or SEC teams as an indicator. Did he consistently rush well against those teams? Nope. He's an excellent receiving option with great speed, but he isn't a between the tackles guy. Again, looking at his career, he only had a substantial workload for one season. Looking at his skill set, I would expect him to be more of a Sproles or Washington type of back at the next level. Another point, which can be taken with a grain of salt but can not be ignored, is how many NFL impact players have come out of his school in the past ten years or more? Even further, how many have been at skill positions? I'd love to be wrong on him, but he seems a little bit overrated around here because people are looking at the highlights and not the entire body of work.

 

[gianmarco]

(RotoWire) Jones has bulked up to around 225 pounds, the Dallas Cowboys team site reports.

Analysis: It's hard to know what to make of this. On one hand, the general assumption is that weigh and durability are positively correlated, and if that's true then Jones should be less injury prone in 2010. On the other hand, Jones' skill is as a big-play runner, and there's always the worry that adding weight will slow a player down (see: Steve Slaton). Jones insists he's not losing any speed, though he used to play in the 210-pound range.

225 is pretty substantial. Does this hurt or help him?

 

[Todem]

spiller and it's not even close.

Both are highly talented. I don't think it's as far apart as you think.But give me Spiller.

 

[Go deep]

(RotoWire) Jones has bulked up to around 225 pounds, the Dallas Cowboys team site reports.

Analysis: It's hard to know what to make of this. On one hand, the general assumption is that weigh and durability are positively correlated, and if that's true then Jones should be less injury prone in 2010. On the other hand, Jones' skill is as a big-play runner, and there's always the worry that adding weight will slow a player down (see: Steve Slaton). Jones insists he's not losing any speed, though he used to play in the 210-pound range.

225 is pretty substantial. Does this hurt or help him?

Maybe i am just optomistic because i really like Jones, but i see this as a positive. I have said before that part of Jones issues with injuries might be due to his conditioning. At 210 lb's, he only managed to bench 225 8 times at his proday. A 210 lb athlete should do at least double that. Between that and his fluky injuries leads me to believe he relied more on his natural talent and didnt put much time in the weight room/conditioning.

If he put on the extra 15 lbs. by improving his diet and exercise, not only do i think he will be more durable, but i think his speed might even improve. Your more likely to be faster at 225 lbs. and 6% body fat than 210 lbs. 10% body fat. Again, maybe im just being optomistic, he may have just sat around all offseason eating Crispy Kreme.

 

[Max Power]

(RotoWire) Jones has bulked up to around 225 pounds, the Dallas Cowboys team site reports.

Analysis: It's hard to know what to make of this. On one hand, the general assumption is that weigh and durability are positively correlated, and if that's true then Jones should be less injury prone in 2010. On the other hand, Jones' skill is as a big-play runner, and there's always the worry that adding weight will slow a player down (see: Steve Slaton). Jones insists he's not losing any speed, though he used to play in the 210-pound range.

225 is pretty substantial. Does this hurt or help him?

Im not loving this news. Why try to fix what isn't broke? Barber is still there, so he isn't going to be handed a 20 carry workload. The weight might not slow him down, but it also doesn't make him any less injury prone either.

 

[Go deep]

(RotoWire) Jones has bulked up to around 225 pounds, the Dallas Cowboys team site reports.

Analysis: It's hard to know what to make of this. On one hand, the general assumption is that weigh and durability are positively correlated, and if that's true then Jones should be less injury prone in 2010. On the other hand, Jones' skill is as a big-play runner, and there's always the worry that adding weight will slow a player down (see: Steve Slaton). Jones insists he's not losing any speed, though he used to play in the 210-pound range.

225 is pretty substantial. Does this hurt or help him?

Im not loving this news. Why try to fix what isn't broke? Barber is still there, so he isn't going to be handed a 20 carry workload. The weight might not slow him down, but it also doesn't make him any less injury prone either.

The weight itself may not make him any less injury prone, but the conditioning will.

 

[gianmarco]

Should be fun to watch.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Oof to these poll results.

On a related note, does anyone else miss switz?

give me the RB who can run in between the tackes way better.

Then you want Jones.

spiller and it's not even close.

We'll see when Spiller hits the NFL...Jones is a STUD in the making, Spiller looks like Jerious Norwood or Darren Sproles to me. Caveat: I have only seen a few games of Spiller's, plus the highlight film. Based upon that I'd take Jones every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

[Kuz]

Oof to these poll results.

On a related note, does anyone else miss switz?

give me the RB who can run in between the tackes way better.

Then you want Jones.

spiller and it's not even close.

We'll see when Spiller hits the NFL...Jones is a STUD in the making, Spiller looks like Jerious Norwood or Darren Sproles to me. Caveat: I have only seen a few games of Spiller's, plus the highlight film. Based upon that I'd take Jones every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Yeah - what ever happened to that guy?