FF Scoring Theory Question (1 Viewer)

[DoubleG]

Some guys in a dynasty league and I were having this discussion. If you KNEW you were going to get the best production they have had - which for Gates is GOAT-type numbers (at least from a FF standpoint) and for ADP is a top 5 RB finish with a few fumbles smattered in. Which is more valuable?

Scoring is standard (.10 per yard, 6 per TD, -1 for fumbles). League starts 1 TE and 2 RB.

The question basically boils down to what some call "X Values" or specifically this:

Is the advantage a guaranteed healthy Gates would give over any other TE significant enough to prefer him over the RB1 consistency of ADP?

Think about it, then vote.

I realize this will beg the question "Who else is on your team?" - for the sake of discussion presume average players at other positions (i.e. if you choose Gates, your RBs are decent, but not spectacular, if you choose ADP, your TE is decent but not spectacular)

And no, this is not some veiled WDIS or WDIT - this is about how do you compare values of GOAT-type players to studs.

 

[DoubleG]

I added a 3rd option, as the poll was getting a lot of looks but not many votes (meaning it was a tough choice...or nobody really cares enough to click their mouse once. )

 

[geoff8695]

In his 1st four seasons ADP has four top 3 finishes at RB (standard FBG scoring). That's pretty amazing considering that RB1s typically have about a 50% turnover rate from season to season, and that makes Peterson all the more remarkable.

Also, when describing what you could expect by choosing Peterson in this poll, I wouldn't exactly have characterized it as "a top 5 RB finish with a few fumbles smattered in." He's yet to finish worse than RB3 and he only fumbled once last season in 319 touches...

 

[Ilov80s]

If you look at Gates career averages for FF points, it isn't enough to make that big of a difference between 1 and 2. It is easily Peterson for me here.

 

[glong989]

To me this has to be specified - is the type of season you are guaranteed for Gates his most recent season extrapolated over a full season or is it just his best full healthy season to date?

His start last season was out of this world. He would have lapped the competition and then a lot, lot more if he kept it up and I see no reason why he wouldn't have done just that.

It's a no brainer to me that you take that over a guaranteed top 5 RB finish. He would have likely outscored ADP from the TE position last season for Gods sake.

I also don't understand why your RBs can't still be pretty damn good with Gates on your team. There's plenty of backs that can come at least decently close to AP each year. There's no TE that comes close to Gates if he is having a GOAT year like you specified..

 

[geoff8695]

To me this has to be specified - is the type of season you are guaranteed for Gates his most recent season extrapolated over a full season or is it just his best full healthy season to date?

His start last season was out of this world. He would have lapped the competition and then a lot, lot more if he kept it up and I see no reason why he wouldn't have done just that.

It's a no brainer to me that you take that over a guaranteed top 5 RB finish. He would have likely outscored ADP from the TE position last season for Gods sake.

I also don't understand why your RBs can't still be pretty damn good with Gates on your team. There's plenty of backs that can come at least decently close to AP each year. There's no TE that comes close to Gates if he is having a GOAT year like you specified..

Well the Header on the Poll reads, "Supposing top performances for both for the next 4 years each, who would you rather have?"That would mean we are talking about both players putting up peak numbers for several more seasons. If you're concerned about their disproportionate ages, then just pretend Gates is a few years younger.

Either way, which one is more valuable to your team if we are talking a dynasty, long-term, several seasons outlook, and using FBGs standard scoring?

 

[DoubleG]

To me this has to be specified - is the type of season you are guaranteed for Gates his most recent season extrapolated over a full season or is it just his best full healthy season to date?

His start last season was out of this world. He would have lapped the competition and then a lot, lot more if he kept it up and I see no reason why he wouldn't have done just that.

It's a no brainer to me that you take that over a guaranteed top 5 RB finish. He would have likely outscored ADP from the TE position last season for Gods sake.

I also don't understand why your RBs can't still be pretty damn good with Gates on your team. There's plenty of backs that can come at least decently close to AP each year. There's no TE that comes close to Gates if he is having a GOAT year like you specified..

Well the Header on the Poll reads, "Supposing top performances for both for the next 4 years each, who would you rather have?"That would mean we are talking about both players putting up peak numbers for several more seasons. If you're concerned about their disproportionate ages, then just pretend Gates is a few years younger.

Either way, which one is more valuable to your team if we are talking a dynasty, long-term, several seasons outlook, and using FBGs standard scoring?

This is correct - both players putting up their respective peak numbers. I realize this isn't a realistic debate (you will never be guaranteed peak production over a several year span) - just an interesting one.