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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (14 Viewers)

nittanylion said:
Yeah, I'm getting Eagles +1.5, Broncos -7.5

I threw that out there because your for your Bears/Bengals play, I'm getting pick'm/+1
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I got cold feet on that one. Never know when Cutler is gonna be Cutler.

I'm still doing my homework. I'll have a good total or two in the morning.

 
Raider Nation said:
SHARPS REPORT, NFL Week 5

KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE:

On opener of Kansas City -2.5 was bet up to -3. We’re hearing that early action was based on the fact that Tennessee will be without Jake Locker for awhile…and that initial money wanted in below the key number. Moving forward, this isn’t a game the sharps are expected to be aggressive with because Tennessee has played good defense all season, while Kansas City’s offense has been up and down.

BALTIMORE AT MIAMI:

An opener of Miami -3 has stayed solid, as many move off the critical number would likely be pounded right back to it because of the likelihood that a close game between competitive teams would land right on that number. Were the public to fall in love with one side or the other, sharps would fade a line move caused by public action.

JACKSONVILLE AT ST. LOUIS:

St. Louis opened at -10.5, and was bet up past -11 rather than toward the key number of 10. That obviously represents support for the Rams. But, sharps have been supporting the Rams all season only to watch the team continually go out and play poorly. We’re not hearing of many sharps who are looking to back the Jags even if the line reaches +12 or higher. Not a high priority game for sharps at the moment.

NEW ENGLAND AT CINCINNATI:

On opener of pick-em was bet toward the home team. Though underdog money does come in on New England at +1.5 or higher. Oddsmakers will be watching this one carefully because New England would be a popular teaser choice if they end up seeing +1.5, +2, or +2.5 on game day. The Patriots won outright at this price in Atlanta last week, covering the game and all teasers.

SEATTLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:

Sharps loaded up very heavily against Seattle last week in Houston, only to see the Seahawks steal the game in overtime thanks to an interception return for a TD late in regulation. They want to fade the Seahawks again in a second straight road game vs. a playoff contender. But, oddsmakers are hesitant to drop Indianapolis +3 down to +2.5 because it would invite teaser play on a live home underdog. Sportsbooks will have to decide if they want to root for Seattle -3, or Seattle -8.5.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:

Green Bay opened at -6.5 and was bet immediately up to the key number of -7. We’re hearing some of that is support for the Packers…some of that is position-taking for middles just in case the public comes in on Green Bay over the weekend…and some of that is due to Green Bay having a bye last week for extra preparation time. So…some of the money is “bye” related rather than pure support of the Packers. Were the line to climb above a touchdown, sharps would take Detroit at +7.5 or +8, while also playing Green Bay in teasers at -1.5 and -2.

NEW ORLEANS AT CHICAGO:

Interesting game. We saw an opener of pick-em. Different stores have tested either side at -1, only to see betting action drive the line back to pick-em. Remember that the public tends to love betting Chicago in their best years. But, they also love betting the Saints in their best years! We’re hearing that sharps are monitoring weather reports very closely…and that some heavy action may be brewing based on game day conditions.

PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS:

The NY Giants opened at -1, and were bet up to -2 or -2.5 in most locales. Sharps have been way out of synch with both teams. We’re hearing that some of that move was just sharps trying to bet the game into the teaser window. Were the public to take the number to Philadelphia +3, sharps would come in on the underdog with the better won-lost record.

CAROLINA AT ARIZONA:

Carolina opened at -2, in a game that hasn’t generated much interest yet. It’s already in the teaser window, so Arizona +8 will be included in two-teamers. Sharps generally like fading Carolina games that are expected to be close because their coach has such a poor record in those kinds of affairs. That line of thinking cost them a fortune in NY Giants/Carolina because it turned out not to be a close game. Sources tell us Arizona would have been bet aggressively if they hadn’t played so poorly last week at Tampa Bay.

SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND:

San Diego opened at -5, a sign of respect after the Chargers played so well against Dallas last week. Terrelle Pryor is set to return to quarterback the Raiders. Bets so far have weighted toward the Raiders. This spread range is a no-man’s land for key numbers and teasers, so it may not be heavily bet by sharps. But, it’s this kind of game that has surprisingly see big game day moves…so you just never know.

DENVER AT DALLAS:

It’s been well publicized that this line jumped way up from an opener of -5.5. Denver is now laying more than a touchdown. That’s just what sportsbooks wanted, the Broncos in the teaser window! If the line stays around -7.5 or -8, everyone will have them in teasers. We’re hearing that many sharps are looking to bet the live home dog heavily once a game day line has settled in, particularly if it’s much more than a touchdown.

HOUSTON AT SAN FRANCISCO:

Our first “tug-of-war” game! Normally that’s a theme for over half the card. A combination of bye weeks for four teams and a lack of games near the three has reduced that phenomenon. We’re generally seeing bets for San Francisco -6.5 and Houston +7. That’s likely to continue up to kickoff based on what we’re hearing. Houston may be one of the teams sharps are going to keep being stubborn about.

NY JETS AT ATLANTA (Monday Night):

Atlanta opened at -7.5, and has been bet all the way up to -9.5 and -10. How could that happen after the Falcons looked so shaky last Sunday Night? We’re hearing that sharps soured on Geno Smith as a road quarterback after he cost them a fortune in Tennessee last week…and that oddsmakers were quick to yank the game through the teaser window because they didn’t want the whole world on Atlanta in a spot where teaser players could use them to finish off this week AND to start off next week. Sharps would come in on the Jets at +11, and possibly even at +10.5 or +10 on game day. They’re standing pat now so the public has time to bet the TV favorite like they normally do.
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^ ^ (those are some sharp nips!) BTW, RN, you are gold for posting this every week.

 
I really, really liked the o54 in the Lions/Packers game. Both defenses will have their hands full. But I'm watching the weather in Green Bay. Looks like mid-60's but possible showers.

Edit: the showers are early morning. Looking at sunny and 64 at kickoff.

Full steam ahead for this over AFAIC.

 
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nittanylion said:
Would love to see the Packers -7 move into the teaser window at some point...
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Dunno if you read every post recently, but I removed them from one of my survivor picks. They cannot stop the pass to save their lives. Stafford and Calvin are not the ideal opponent right now. But Green Bay is going to run up and down the field also, which is why I love the over.

 
I think the Packer D is on the rise, and I love them at home coming off their bye vs a Divisional Opponent who they are going to have to take seriously. I think they'll be ready tomorrow. I jumped in for 3% a few days ago, but wasn't quick enough to get them at -6.5.

I also like OVER 54, but I haven't dropped on it yet. Tough day at the NCAA Office has forced me to wait for the outcome of SJSU/Hawaii before I'm comfortable laying any more out there...need the Spartans to find me some $$$.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Raider Nation said:
Don't forget, Raiders and Chargers tomorrow night at 11:30 EST on NFLN!

AFTER the Sunday Night game. So awesome... another betting opportunity. Wish they would do that every week for us night owls.
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:excited:

when did this happen? is this a weekly thing?
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One time only. They need the better part of a day to convert Oakland Coliseum back from baseball to football.

Raiders fans should be good and tanked for a late game like this. Should be awesome shtick.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Tiger Fan said:
Raider Nation said:
Don't forget, Raiders and Chargers tomorrow night at 11:30 EST on NFLN!

AFTER the Sunday Night game. So awesome... another betting opportunity. Wish they would do that every week for us night owls.
Click to expand...
:excited:

when did this happen? is this a weekly thing?
Click to expand...
One time only. They need the better part of a day to convert Oakland Coliseum back from baseball to football.

Raiders fans should be good and tanked for a late game like this. Should be awesome shtick.
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Really hoping Pryor isn't hesitant to run coming off the concussion. Without his legs, he's just another fairly inaccurate QB.

 
Raider Nation said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Tiger Fan said:
Raider Nation said:
Don't forget, Raiders and Chargers tomorrow night at 11:30 EST on NFLN!

AFTER the Sunday Night game. So awesome... another betting opportunity. Wish they would do that every week for us night owls.
Click to expand...
:excited:

when did this happen? is this a weekly thing?
Click to expand...
One time only. They need the better part of a day to convert Oakland Coliseum back from baseball to football.

Raiders fans should be good and tanked for a late game like this. Should be awesome shtick.
Click to expand...
Really hoping Pryor isn't hesitant to run coming off the concussion. Without his legs, he's just another fairly inaccurate QB.
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Honestly, he seems more like an obvious run downs type guy to me, I'd give the keys to Flynn and just save Pryor for wildcat/kill the clock time.

 
God no, Flynn is dreadful. Pryor is actually promising when he's free to run. Very, very elusive.

Bloom is in love with him. Said he has more physical skills than Cam Newton.

 
Sunday Plays (so far)

Denver -6.5 4u

Carolina -1.5 2u

DET/GB O53 2u

DEN/DAL O55.5 2u

DET/DEN/PHI/NO OVER Teaser to win 3u

KC/SEA/CAR/SF/SD ML Parlay 1u/8u

CAR/DEN/(DEN OVER)/(DET OVER) parlay to win 8u

SF/DEN/GB/SEA/NE/(JAX UNDER) Teaser 1u/6u

:banned:

 
swirvenirvin said:
All on SB

*1 Charles over 4.5 rec (-120)

*1 AJ Green under 6.5 rec (-105)

*1 Flacco under 260.5 passing

*1 Luck under 245.5

*1 Hilton under 3.5 rec (-105)

*1 Lacy over 61.5 rushing (-120)

*1 A. Jeffery under 4.5 rec (-130)

*1 H. Nicks over 4 rec (-120)

*1 D. Williams under 60 rush

*1 Moreno under 58.5 rush

*1 Romo over 306.5 passing

*1 D. Murray under 69.5 rush
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deangelo was under 69 not 60 fyifyifyi

 
Struggling with the games today. Even the sharps report didn't help much this week.

The only thing I'm thinking is the Chiefs are in a let down spot here and the Titans win outright.

 
Went with the following teaser.

6.5 point teaser

Jags +17.5/Colts +9.5/Cardinals +9

10 point teaser

Giants +8.5/Falcons pick em/Bears +12.5

 
IND +3

JAX +12

JAX/STL o41

Teasing PHI/CHI/CIN/GB

Will probably tail the DET/GB over.

Hoping Dallas gets to 10 by kickoff.

 
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Colts probably win outright. I don't think Seattle travels that well. They should have lost to the Texans and got gifted a cover there. Some might say the Colts are better than the Texans as well. I think that's where my money is going

 
John Bender said:
Struggling with the games today. Even the sharps report didn't help much this week.

The only thing I'm thinking is the Chiefs are in a let down spot here and the Titans win outright.
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I'm taking the Fitzpatrick sucks angle

 
The Ref said:
swirvenirvin said:
Bovada

*1 D. Avery under 40.5 receiving

*1 P. Manning over 27.5 com

*1 M. Floyd under 4.5 receptions
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Were these from yesterday or are these up?
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Bump.... Anyone see anything yet at RB?

EDIT: Nevermind - It's up

 
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Gone for the night and there are 5 pages to catch up on. Damn you some talkative #####es. Sounds like most had decent days. That line on the illini/nebraska smelled like some 5 daY old perch lying in the sand and it sure was. BG should have dismantled Umass. I was looking at 38-0 or 42-3 or something like that. Maybe they partied a bit too much for their homecoming.

Packers and over, Bears and over. Keeping it simple.

 
TheGooRoo said:
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
swirvenirvin said:
Bovada

*1 D. Avery under 40.5 receiving

*1 P. Manning over 27.5 com

*1 M. Floyd under 4.5 receptions
Click to expand...
Were these from yesterday or are these up?
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Bump.... Anyone see anything yet at RB?
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These are at Bodog gb. RB now has props up as well.
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I dont have a bodog account, but this is good info.

I "gave" RB way more side and total action then I am used to giving in a weekend so I just wanted to make sure I was offered the opportunity to bet props.

In case anyone had any doubts.... RB has been great so far this year. Lots of offerings and very good lines. If the payments (assuming I ever get to that part) are as good as they were last year I'm not sure why anyone would play anywhere else (Save NCAA/Hockey props).

 
teasers

chi(last few bets in at +7..friggin line move)

ten

bal

gb

phi

az

den

indy

56 3 teamers, waiting for cincy to go to 1.5, hope it gets there

 
Kurt just got a free $40 from me. Bought out of GB TT Det TT and stafford yards on the C Johnson news

 
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