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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/85540/vegas-weekend-recap-what-does-auburn-vs-florida-state-mean-for-bettors

The BCS title game odds are set, with Florida State an eight-point favorite over Auburn. As recently as a week ago, the projected spread for this potential matchup was in the double-digit range — but Auburn’s impressive win Saturday has stoked the passion of the SEC faithful, while also somewhat swaying discerning betting professionals.

Auburn entered the season with 1,000/1 odds to win it all, while Florida State was 40/1. In my very first Grantland article, the LVH sportsbook reported sharp action on two college teams: Florida State and Auburn. Rather than taking bows for his prognostication, LVH boss Jay Kornegay is in a predicament — one that savvy bettors can exploit. Having taken numerous Auburn BCS future bets at huge odds, the LVH faces a massive liability if the Tigers win the title. In response, the LVH very much wants lopsided Florida State money in the title game in order to hedge their liability — Florida State game bets that would obviously lose for the bettors if Auburn wins the game.

The most effective way for the LVH to hedge is by attracting money line bets on the Seminoles. Such action is perfectly correlated to their BCS future exposure (i.e., if Auburn wins, Florida State money line bets lose — and vice-versa). In a typical college football game, an eight-point favorite would be -350 on the money line (risk $350 to win $100 on the favorite to simply win the game). Currently, the LVH is offering Florida State at the discounted odds of -275. That’s a significant mispricing. Other sportsbooks, including Sportsbook.ag and Bovada.lv, report the same liability on Auburn futures — and thus are making the same effort to attract Florida State bettors. Whenever the odds on an event are affected by factors that have nothing to do with the chance of each team winning the game, it’s a golden opportunity for bettors. If you like Florida State, unquestionably the superior value is offered through a discounted money line bet.

Many wonder how the action this BCS title will generate compares to a generic Super Bowl. I polled six different Las Vegas and online sportsbooks, asking them that very question. Answers ranged from three times up to nine times more action on the Super Bowl. TheGreek.com speculated that for many sportsbooks, the amount of action on Super Bowl prop bets alone exceeds all action on the BCS title game. Southpoint’s Jimmy Vaccaro points out the BCS game being a week removed from the last multiple-bowl game day as one reason for the relatively modest action, since so many recreational bettors like to bet parlays. “Parlaying Auburn with Creighton basketball on the sixth of January does not create a great deal of buzz,” he told me. For that reason, and more than a few others, NFL is clearly king in Las Vegas.
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swirvenirvin said:
Like this over. I'm a sparty so I like Cousins, but take out the homerism, and I still like it. Atl defense vs QB. Only 5 Qb all year have been under 240.5 vs them, and that was bums like Geno Smith, Manual, and Glennon (231)


NFL WEEK 15 SPECIALS - Kirk Cousins - Total Passing Yards Week 15 vs Atlanta
11:00p​
Over
240½
(-115)o​
(-115)u
​
Under
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where is this?

 
random rant...but why don't more teams just take the 5 yard delay of game penalty instead of wasting the time out? Surely at the end of games, you'd trade 5 yards for a TO. This should be coached more

 
:scared: my accts will get ugly if Denver loses this game. thought i was getting money grabs in live betting at everything under a TD, but still waiting for this Denver offense to warm up

 
The Tampa Bay lightning had one SOG tonight in the last 6 min of regulation with a 2 min Power play and then went "0 for" in a full 5 min of OT.

I had under 26.5..... they finished with 26.

:IBTL:

 
The Ref said:
The Tampa Bay lightning had one SOG tonight in the last 6 min of regulation with a 2 min Power play and then went "0 for" in a full 5 min of OT.

I had under 26.5..... they finished with 26.

:IBTL:
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Lost my Bishop under with 5 in OT. #### them.
 
lumpy19 said:
tjnc09 said:
lumpy19 said:
Treynwreck3 said:
Manning O 3.5 passing tds +120.

Peyton wants to smash the single season td record, and he will by God do it.
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I just bet u3.5 -1504tds is just a lot

I also bet u57.5....bookmaker moved to 55.5 and they have 100k limits on game day....I'll take the 2 free points and chase that money
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6:04pm 55.5 -110 55.5 -1107:15pm 56.5 -110 56.5 -110

:oldunsure:
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Yeah I saw that....not excited about it but still a free point...I guess. At least it'll be exciting watching the game and not rooting for points :wall:
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Sweating unders is built into my DNA

 
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