MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Sportsbook put up some dumb 2h team totals. Colts un 14 and Jets un 10 were great bets with the 2h total at 20'. Crazy.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
sia with the best saints bet out there. -170 ml.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
So we are all idiots for not taking the +3s sitting out there all week. I will take the Colts.
culdeus
Footballguy
who was +3? The AFC? Really?
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
no nfc was.
lumpy19
Footballguy
where did you see this?i can't find lines anywhere
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
popped up at Greek right before Indy game was over and taken down right before NO/Minny kickoff.
lumpy19
Footballguy
thanks
modogg
Footballguy
so any prediction on movement? I think it will be 4 for at least a week. o/u is 56, which i would think under would be the play, but with both of these offenses they could rack the points up. maybe a N.O. and under tease is the way to go?colts -3.5ETA: already at 4....i was praying we'd see 2.5 like GR posted
lumpy19
Footballguy
sportsbetting at 5so any prediction on movement? I think it will be 4 for at least a week. o/u is 56, which i would think under would be the play, but with both of these offenses they could rack the points up. maybe a N.O. and under tease is the way to go?colts -3.5ETA: already at 4....i was praying we'd see 2.5 like GR posted
modogg
Footballguy
wow, how far do you think it will go. over 4 i think has to be a good tease with the Saints, no?sportsbetting at 5so any prediction on movement? I think it will be 4 for at least a week. o/u is 56, which i would think under would be the play, but with both of these offenses they could rack the points up. maybe a N.O. and under tease is the way to go?colts -3.5ETA: already at 4....i was praying we'd see 2.5 like GR posted
lumpy19
Footballguy
great number to tease but there's nothing to tease it with.wow, how far do you think it will go. over 4 i think has to be a good tease with the Saints, no?sportsbetting at 5so any prediction on movement? I think it will be 4 for at least a week. o/u is 56, which i would think under would be the play, but with both of these offenses they could rack the points up. maybe a N.O. and under tease is the way to go?colts -3.5ETA: already at 4....i was praying we'd see 2.5 like GR posted
modogg
Footballguy
i think under 62 is reasonable to tease to, but there are 2 weeks for the number to move up from 56 where it is nowgreat number to tease but there's nothing to tease it with.wow, how far do you think it will go. over 4 i think has to be a good tease with the Saints, no?sportsbetting at 5so any prediction on movement? I think it will be 4 for at least a week. o/u is 56, which i would think under would be the play, but with both of these offenses they could rack the points up. maybe a N.O. and under tease is the way to go?colts -3.5ETA: already at 4....i was praying we'd see 2.5 like GR posted
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lumpy19
Footballguy
mo do you not remember the conversation we had a few weeks ago? teasing totals, especially 56 pt totals 6 points is bad gambling.
Penguin
Footballguy
I agree with this 100%
modogg
Footballguy
that is why i posted here first. only bet so far was i bought .5 pts and bet the Colts -4. i have some good futures with the Saints to win the SB and Brees as MVP, so i am in good shape for now. but thanks for the heads up, you're right
culdeus
Footballguy
Today damn near any way you teased any game with any total you won. It's not a stretch to think that at some books all 8 teasers hit.The later games the totals are closer to spot on. I can recall lots of super bowl totals within teaser range recently.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Why lay 4 with the Colts, or 5 for that matter? We saw -170 ml for the Saints game tonight - I expect Colts -170 will also be available gameday. -170 a very good bet.
And yes under for sure, but with the super bowl there is always more creative ways to bet it.
Proptime!!!!
And yes under for sure, but with the super bowl there is always more creative ways to bet it.
Proptime!!!!
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I still don't see how this is a good game to tease with a ridiculous total of 56. Points worth much less then in games lined in the 30s.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
First bet. Reggie Bush 16 to 1 mvp. Way, way too high for boom or bust Reggie. Its at the greek.
culdeus
Footballguy
From what I can recall the only game that didn't hit at least 3 teaser legs in the prior 10 years is TB/OAK. I'm a little hazy on the lines, but I think 9 of the last 10 super bowl totals were within 6 of the number. At worst 8. Still searching.I'm still trying to locate a few numbers, but in general since the salary cap era the super bowls have been much easier to handicap. Lots of people are still of the mindset to think back to the 90s era when blowouts were common.culdeus said:
lumpy19
Footballguy
Greek opened the ML at colts -155It's shocking to me that the line went from Indy -2.5 over NO before gametime and Indy -5.5 now.I think money is just going to keep pouring in on the colts. Line is in a dead zone right now until it gets to 6.I don't think we'll see a ML of -170 again.MarshallPlan said:
culdeus
Footballguy
ML for favorites in Super Bowls are always underlayed. This has been very reliable since the first New England disaster.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
-5.5 and -210 now.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Your probably right, I never thought this would sniff 6. I made the line 4 myself. I mean the line was 2' before the Saints game. Sure they were lucky and did not play well, but your telling me we give them 4' more pts because of ONE game? Like I said +3 nfc was out there all week and now we will see +6 on gamday. I will be huge on both the +6 (when it shows) and Colts ml - hoping for -180. I can't count how many times I have lost going against Peyton.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I bet Mike bell ov 3' +110 1st attempt. He never got one - no action or a loss?
lumpy19
Footballguy
I probably should have waited....but I missed the colts -2.5 yesterday so I'm not waiting on this one.
NO +7.5(-140) at sportsbetting(not like I can get the money anyway so might as well have some fun with it)
10c better than bookmaker and 20c better than greek.
ETA: bookmaker just posted pro bowl line, AFC +1.5, there's the second leg of your teaser mo!
NO +7.5(-140) at sportsbetting(not like I can get the money anyway so might as well have some fun with it)
10c better than bookmaker and 20c better than greek.
ETA: bookmaker just posted pro bowl line, AFC +1.5, there's the second leg of your teaser mo!
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TheGooRoo
Footballguy
no action
SanAntonioHolmes
Footballguy
Aints +6 -115(5x)
More to come, im sure. Two weeks til the game and a gambling habit don't go well together.
good luck everyone
Im also waiting on the "color of gatorade to be poured on the winning coach" prop. always one of my favorites. i like red this year.
More to come, im sure. Two weeks til the game and a gambling habit don't go well together.
good luck everyone
Im also waiting on the "color of gatorade to be poured on the winning coach" prop. always one of my favorites. i like red this year.
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MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Well they graded it as a loss. Bet was at betonline.com. Chatted for over a half hour about it, they said all he had to do was play.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I can't say I have ever seen fumble favored over int for first turnover of the game.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Tough break, I had thegreek grade a prop earlier in the season the same way when moats showed up making a tackle on special teams but never carried the ball. It seems to vary from book to book, my guess is SB would have graded this NA.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Yes, sb would have graded it NA. I had a Westbrook prop against Dallas on first carry or catch and they graded it no action. I guess it was my fault, but I fully expected Bell to get a carry and +115 on over 3' yds seemed decent.
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Greek guys:
I have only had an account here for a few weeks. Will a max bet on a prop move the line? Max bets on these props they are offering for the sb are $500. I don't know what will move the line and what won't.
I have only had an account here for a few weeks. Will a max bet on a prop move the line? Max bets on these props they are offering for the sb are $500. I don't know what will move the line and what won't.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Should move a line 30 cents, not sure on sb props but on all other props that's what i've seen.How have you only had an acct there a few weeks when you were making NBA prop bets there at the end of last NBA season? :(
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
I used to have a local (he cut me off a few weeks ago) that mirrored the greek's lines.30 cents is a lot, that sucks.Should move a line 30 cents, not sure on sb props but on all other props that's what i've seen.How have you only had an acct there a few weeks when you were making NBA prop bets there at the end of last NBA season?
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lumpy19
Footballguy
They might not move 30 cents on SB props and they might not move 30 cents when a new acct bets them, i have no idea. you can re-bet after the line move though and if the line moves back to where you originally bet it you can keep re-betting, there is no cap. If you pound one side and someone else pounds back you can play the game till the accts are empty.I used to have a local (he cut me off a few weeks ago) that mirrored the greek's lines.30 cents is a lot, that sucks.Should move a line 30 cents, not sure on sb props but on all other props that's what i've seen.How have you only had an acct there a few weeks when you were making NBA prop bets there at the end of last NBA season?
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Lumpy, did not know that thanks.
Some super bowl prop thoughts. I went overboard last year on props, put in countless amounts of hours of work to only come out $170 ahead after investing over 12k into the game. Yes, I lost over 12% of my bankroll on the coin toss before the game even started, so I feel very good in being in the positive after a disastrous start. Plus I had countless other wagers tied to the fact AZ would likely get the ball first, which they didn't.
Anyway, one very important thing that I remembered was that it is important to either bet props as soon as they come out or if you miss, wait until Sat before game and even gameday to make prop bets. Sonny posted his prop list last year I believe the week before the game, after books had 3-4 days to move lines and such. None of the bets on his HUGE prop list were very good. Then all the sudden the weekend of the game we got a lot of line movement and many more props were put up that were severely mispriced.
I am not sure if I will be scalping much on the Super Bowl. Even though scalps like Collie un 52' yds -115 and over 52' +145 were available last week and it was a free $150 or nothing, I just don't know if they are worth it when there are other very good bets always out there. I remember being shocked at the amount of GREAT bets were out there the day before and day of the game. After making tons of bets the 2 weeks prior, I was running low on money and had to deposit even more into sportsbook the day of the game and into another book.
Fitzgerald was like under 92 yds -160 and then gameday completely flipped around as he was a very public wager. Same thing on first score a td, yes team scores 3 unanswered times, under 1' yds shortest td, etc.
With the huge total, it should be a very interesting year for prop bets. I'm anxious to see some lines posted.
Some super bowl prop thoughts. I went overboard last year on props, put in countless amounts of hours of work to only come out $170 ahead after investing over 12k into the game. Yes, I lost over 12% of my bankroll on the coin toss before the game even started, so I feel very good in being in the positive after a disastrous start. Plus I had countless other wagers tied to the fact AZ would likely get the ball first, which they didn't.
Anyway, one very important thing that I remembered was that it is important to either bet props as soon as they come out or if you miss, wait until Sat before game and even gameday to make prop bets. Sonny posted his prop list last year I believe the week before the game, after books had 3-4 days to move lines and such. None of the bets on his HUGE prop list were very good. Then all the sudden the weekend of the game we got a lot of line movement and many more props were put up that were severely mispriced.
I am not sure if I will be scalping much on the Super Bowl. Even though scalps like Collie un 52' yds -115 and over 52' +145 were available last week and it was a free $150 or nothing, I just don't know if they are worth it when there are other very good bets always out there. I remember being shocked at the amount of GREAT bets were out there the day before and day of the game. After making tons of bets the 2 weeks prior, I was running low on money and had to deposit even more into sportsbook the day of the game and into another book.
Fitzgerald was like under 92 yds -160 and then gameday completely flipped around as he was a very public wager. Same thing on first score a td, yes team scores 3 unanswered times, under 1' yds shortest td, etc.
With the huge total, it should be a very interesting year for prop bets. I'm anxious to see some lines posted.
Otis
Footballguy
My gambling exploits are fairly-well documented around these parts, so let me start off saying I get where you're coming from. It's a crappy feeling going thousands in the hole, in over your head, and dragging yourself down into debt over such stupidity. It's lonely and scary at times.The good news, as others have mentioned, is you're on the right path here. Do yourself a favor, take control, and force yourself away from it for an extended period of time. I saw you saying in another thread you might lay some cash on the SB. I would say go ahead and place a modest bet -- maybe $100 -- and that's it. Make that your last bet for a year. Maybe seems like counter-intuitive advice, but I think given the magnitude of the SB in our culture and the fact that it's so associated with betting means that rather than worry about temptation, just go ahead, plunk down a SMALL bet, and leave it be.After that, don't gamble for a year. The first thing you'll start to realize is that it's really nice NOT being pissed off all the time about the cash you just blew. The other thing you'll start to realize is that you'll start to have a lot more money than you used to. You'll be able to start paying down your debts and get financially stable. Do yourself a favor and the day after the super bowl sit down and make a budget. Make a financial plan. Give yourself next to zero cushion. Close all your credit cards but one -- pick one that the online betting sites typically reject. Close down every online betting side you can -- send e-mail to their support address letting them know you have a gambling problem and for that reason want them to close your account immediately and permanently. Most of them will honor that and will not let you play there again, ever. You think it's stupid, but I did this, and there were times later when I had the urge and tried to get on and play. They wouldn't let me. I tried to snake my way around it and open new accounts. They wouldn't let me. Hell, PokerStars won't let me back on without a notarized letter from a family member attesting to the fact that I'm reformed. Seems ridiculous, but it works.I've fallen off from time to time and gambled here and there since, but never over my head, and never to the point of financial instability. If I play with hundreds, it's hundreds I can afford to lose. If I break out $3k at the blackjack tables in Atlantic City, it's with the fiance within arms' length, knowing I'm doing it, and us both recognizing that we can lose it all very quickly. It's not mortgage payment money, or wedding money. Which brings me to another point --it's helpful to have someone else involved. We are planning a wedding, and in order to keep myself in check financially, I funnel every last cent I can into our joint account. There's no way I would go gambling with "our" money, particularly money we have an important purpose for, and I'd be much more to plunk down gambling money that is only "mine." So I only gamble with money from my own account, and have a budget to plunk down a certain chunk of my monthly take into our joint account and I don't touch it. It works.One other thing I found that works is finding another less destructive (even if it's not constructive) hobby that I can obsess about and eat up time with. I went out and picked up an Xbox and one of those games that you can play against other people and where you have to spend tons of time to "rank up." Rather than killing my down time at home by sitting in front of the computer playing online poker or blackjack, I would plop down in front of the Xbox. Yeah, still a total waste of time, but it didn't ruin me financially.Like I said, to this day I've gotten hold of it. I still allow myself to gamble here and there -- and I win some and lose some -- but it's never over my head and not destructive like it once was. Yes, you'll hear my pissing and moaning in the shark pool about the stupid 'Aints winning by three and not covering my 4 point spread, and I hate losing, but at least it's not money that I couldn't afford to lose. I still even play online blackjack or poker here and there, but to the tune of a hundred bucks here or there (as opposed to a thousand).Bottom line -- good luck to you. It's a rough thing to go through. But do yourself a favor and take it seriously. Once you pull out of it, you'll look back and be glad you did.Raider Nation said:
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Otis is dead on. Raider, seriously take some time off, at least until next football season. It's just not worth it sometimes - this gambling thing is fun and all but you have to have so many things going for you to make it work. I was watching the games with my girlfriend and her parents yesterday and her mom turned to me and said, "wow you don't get really excited at all for the games, you are pretty calm." That to me is a great compliment - I had probably 3k on each game yesterday and she had no idea. Now the girlfriend knows and it bothers her, but she lets it slide most of the time because I do make money and she knows if I didn't gamble I would have to get a job.
The absolute key is money management. That's why I have been doing pretty well this year, my bets are so small compared to my bankroll that if I go on a losing streak or lose a bet due to bad luck, it's a lot easier to move on and forget about it.
I honestly can't wait for a break from it. After the Super Bowl I will be done until at least into the summer, maybe even next football season. It's just very taxing and strenuous even if you are calm and level-headed.
The absolute key is money management. That's why I have been doing pretty well this year, my bets are so small compared to my bankroll that if I go on a losing streak or lose a bet due to bad luck, it's a lot easier to move on and forget about it.
I honestly can't wait for a break from it. After the Super Bowl I will be done until at least into the summer, maybe even next football season. It's just very taxing and strenuous even if you are calm and level-headed.
